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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Mishra, A, et al.
(författare)
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Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 615:7954, s. 874-883
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1–6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5–19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m–2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.
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| 5. |
- Glasbey, JC, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 8. |
- Khatri, C, et al.
(författare)
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Outcomes after perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with proximal femoral fractures: an international cohort study
- 2021
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Ingår i: BMJ open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 11:11, s. e050830-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Studies have demonstrated high rates of mortality in people with proximal femoral fracture and SARS-CoV-2, but there is limited published data on the factors that influence mortality for clinicians to make informed treatment decisions. This study aims to report the 30-day mortality associated with perioperative infection of patients undergoing surgery for proximal femoral fractures and to examine the factors that influence mortality in a multivariate analysis.SettingProspective, international, multicentre, observational cohort study.ParticipantsPatients undergoing any operation for a proximal femoral fracture from 1 February to 30 April 2020 and with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection (either 7 days prior or 30-day postoperative).Primary outcome30-day mortality. Multivariate modelling was performed to identify factors associated with 30-day mortality.ResultsThis study reports included 1063 patients from 174 hospitals in 19 countries. Overall 30-day mortality was 29.4% (313/1063). In an adjusted model, 30-day mortality was associated with male gender (OR 2.29, 95% CI 1.68 to 3.13, p<0.001), age >80 years (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.31, p=0.013), preoperative diagnosis of dementia (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.16, p=0.005), kidney disease (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.18 to 2.55, p=0.005) and congestive heart failure (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.48, p=0.025). Mortality at 30 days was lower in patients with a preoperative diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.6 (0.42 to 0.85), p=0.004). There was no difference in mortality in patients with an increase to delay in surgery (p=0.220) or type of anaesthetic given (p=0.787).ConclusionsPatients undergoing surgery for a proximal femoral fracture with a perioperative infection of SARS-CoV-2 have a high rate of mortality. This study would support the need for providing these patients with individualised medical and anaesthetic care, including medical optimisation before theatre. Careful preoperative counselling is needed for those with a proximal femoral fracture and SARS-CoV-2, especially those in the highest risk groups.Trial registration numberNCT04323644
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| 9. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 10. |
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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
- Ostaszewski, Marek, et al.
(författare)
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COVID19 Disease Map, a computational knowledge repository of virus-host interaction mechanisms
- 2021
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Ingår i: Molecular Systems Biology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1744-4292 .- 1744-4292. ; 17:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We need to effectively combine the knowledge from surging literature with complex datasets to propose mechanistic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection, improving data interpretation and predicting key targets of intervention. Here, we describe a large-scale community effort to build an open access, interoperable and computable repository of COVID-19 molecular mechanisms. The COVID-19 Disease Map (C19DMap) is a graphical, interactive representation of disease-relevant molecular mechanisms linking many knowledge sources. Notably, it is a computational resource for graph-based analyses and disease modelling. To this end, we established a framework of tools, platforms and guidelines necessary for a multifaceted community of biocurators, domain experts, bioinformaticians and computational biologists. The diagrams of the C19DMap, curated from the literature, are integrated with relevant interaction and text mining databases. We demonstrate the application of network analysis and modelling approaches by concrete examples to highlight new testable hypotheses. This framework helps to find signatures of SARS-CoV-2 predisposition, treatment response or prioritisation of drug candidates. Such an approach may help deal with new waves of COVID-19 or similar pandemics in the long-term perspective.
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| 13. |
- Blanton, Michael R., et al.
(författare)
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Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV : Mapping the Milky Way, Nearby Galaxies, and the Distant Universe
- 2017
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Ingår i: Astronomical Journal. - : IOP Publishing Ltd. - 0004-6256 .- 1538-3881. ; 154:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We describe the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV (SDSS-IV), a project encompassing three major spectroscopic programs. The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 (APOGEE-2) is observing hundreds of thousands of Milky Way stars at high resolution and. high signal-to-noise ratios in the near-infrared. The Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey is obtaining spatially resolved spectroscopy for thousands of nearby galaxies (median z similar to 0.03). The extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) is mapping the galaxy, quasar, and neutral gas distributions between z similar to 0.6 and 3.5 to constrain cosmology using baryon acoustic oscillations, redshift space distortions, and the shape of the power spectrum. Within eBOSS, we are conducting two major subprograms: the SPectroscopic IDentification of eROSITA Sources (SPIDERS), investigating X-ray AGNs. and galaxies in X-ray clusters, and the Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey (TDSS), obtaining spectra of variable sources. All programs use the 2.5 m Sloan Foundation Telescope at the. Apache Point Observatory; observations there began in Summer 2014. APOGEE-2 also operates a second near-infrared spectrograph at the 2.5 m du Pont Telescope at Las Campanas Observatory, with observations beginning in early 2017. Observations at both facilities are scheduled to continue through 2020. In keeping with previous SDSS policy, SDSS-IV provides regularly scheduled public data releases; the first one, Data Release 13, was made available in 2016 July.
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| 14. |
- Conley, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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Hypoxia is increasing in the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea
- 2011
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Ingår i: Environmental Science and Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 45:16, s. 6777-6783
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hypoxia is a well-described phenomenon in the offshore waters of the Baltic Sea with both the spatial extent and intensity of hypoxia known to have increased due to anthropogenic eutrophication, however, an unknown amount of hypoxia is present in the coastal zone. Here we report on the widespread unprecedented occurrence of hypoxia across the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea. We have identified 115 sites that have experienced hypoxia during the period 1955-2009 increasing the global total to ca. 500 sites, with the Baltic Sea coastal zone containing over 20% of all known sites worldwide. Most sites experienced episodic hypoxia, which is a precursor to development of seasonal hypoxia. The Baltic Sea coastal zone displays an alarming trend with hypoxia steadily increasing with time since the 1950s effecting nutrient biogeochemical processes, ecosystem services, and coastal habitat.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Eriksson Hägg, Hanna, et al.
(författare)
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Scenario Analysis on Protein Consumption and Climate Change Effects on Riverine N Export to the Baltic Sea
- 2010
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Ingår i: Environmental Science and Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 44:7, s. 2379-2385
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper evaluates possible future nitrogen loadings from 105 catchments surrounding the Baltic Sea. Multiple regressions are used to model total nitrogen (TN) flux as a function of specific runoff (0), atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and primary emissions (PE) from humans and livestock. On average cattle contributed with 63%, humans with 20%, and pigs with 17% of the total nitrogen PE to land. Compared to the reference period (1992-1996) we then evaluated two types of scenarios for year 2070. i) An increased protein consumption scenario that led to 16% to 39% increased mean TN flux (kg per km(-2)). ii) Four climate scenarios addressing effects of changes in river discharge. These scenarios showed increased mean TN flux from the northern catchments draining into the Gulf of Bothnia (34%) and the Gulfs of Finland and Riga (14%), while the mean TN flux decreased (-27%) for catchments draining to the Baltic Proper. However, the net effect of the scenarios showed a possible increase in TN flux ranging from 3-72%. Overall an increased demand for animal protein will be instrumental for the Baltic Sea ecosystem and may be a major holdback to fulfill the environmental goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Humborg, Christoph, et al.
(författare)
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Changes in dissolved silicate loads to the Baltic Sea : The effects of lakes and reservoirs
- 2008
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Ingår i: Journal of Marine Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0924-7963 .- 1879-1573. ; 73:3-4, s. 223-235
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We tested the hypothesis that dissolved silicate (DSi) yields [kg km− 2 yr− 1] of 82 major watersheds of the Baltic Sea can be expressed as a function of the hydraulic load (HL) as a measure of water residence time and the total organic carbon (TOC) concentration, both variables potentially increasing the DSi yield. Most boreal rivers fitted a linear regression model using HL as an independent variable to explain the DSi yield. Rivers with high HL, i.e., shortest residence times, showed highest DSi yields up to 2300 kg km− 2 yr− 1. This is most likely caused by an excess supply of DSi, i.e., the geochemical sources prevail over biological sinks in these boreal watersheds. The DSi yield for regulated and unregulated larger rivers of the boreal watersheds constituting about 40% of the total water discharge and of the total DSi load to the Baltic Sea, respectively, can be expressed as: DSi yield = 190 + 49.5 HL[m yr− 1] + 0.346 TOC [µM] (R2 = 0.80). Since both HL and TOC concentrations have decreased after damming, the DSi yields have decreased significantly in the regulated boreal watersheds, for the River Luleälven we estimated more than 30%. The larger eutrophic watersheds draining cultivated landscape of the southern catchment of the Baltic Sea and representing about 50% of the annual water discharge to the Baltic Sea, deviated from this pattern and showed lower DSi yields between 60–580 kg km− 2 yr− 1. DSi yields showed saturation curve like relationship to HL and it appears that DSi is retained in the watersheds efficiently through biogenic silica (BSi) production and subsequent sedimentation along the entire river network. The relationship between HL and DSi yields for all larger cultivated watersheds was best fitted by a Freundlich isotherm (DSi = 115.7HL109; R2 = 0.73), because once lake and reservoir area exceeds 10% of the watershed area, minimum DSi yields were reached. To estimate an uperturbed DSi yield for the larger eutrophic southeastern watersheds is still difficult, since no unperturbed watersheds for comparison were available. However, a rough estimate indicate that the DSi flux from the cultivated watersheds to the Baltic Sea is nowadays only half the uperturbed flux. Overall, the riverine DSi loads to the Baltic Sea might have dropped with 30–40% during the last century.
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| 19. |
- Morth, Carl-Magnus, et al.
(författare)
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Modeling riverine nutrient transport to the Baltic Sea : A large-scale approach
- 2007
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Ingår i: Ambio. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 36:02-Mar, s. 124-133
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We developed for the first time a catchment model simulating simultaneously the nutrient land-sea fluxes from all 105 major watersheds within the Baltic Sea drainage area. A consistent modeling approach to all these major watersheds, i.e., a consistent handling of water fluxes (hydrological simulations) and loading functions (emission data), will facilitate a comparison of riverine nutrient transport between Baltic Sea subbasins that differ substantially. Hot spots of riverine emissions, such as from the rivers Vistula, Oder, and Daugava or from the Danish coast, can be easily demonstrated and the comparison between these hot spots, and the relatively unperturbed rivers in the northern catchments show decisionmakers where remedial actions are most effective to improve the environmental state of the Baltic Sea, and, secondly, what percentage reduction of riverine nutrient loads is possible. The relative difference between measured and simulated fluxes during the validation period was generally small. The cumulative deviation (i.e., relative bias) [Sigma(Simulated - Measured)/Sigma Measured X 100 (%)] from monitored water and nutrient fluxes amounted to+8.2% for runoff, to-2.4% for dissolved inorganic nitrogen, to +5.1% for total nitrogen, to +13% for dissolved inorganic phosphorus and to +19% for total phosphorus. Moreover, the model suggests that point sources for total phosphorus compiled by existing pollution load compilations are underestimated because of inconsistencies in calculating effluent loads from municipalities.
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| 20. |
- Myrberg, Kai, et al.
(författare)
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Validation of three-dimensional hydrodynamic models of the Gulf of Finland
- 2010
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Ingår i: Boreal environment research. - 1239-6095 .- 1797-2469. ; 15:5, s. 453-479
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A model-intercomparison study was conducted, the first of its kind for the Baltic Sea, whose aim was to systematically simulate the basic three-dimensional hydrographic properties of a realistic, complex basin. Simulations of the hydrographic features of the Gulf of Finland for the summer autumn of 1996 by six three-dimensional hydrodynamic models were compared. Validation was undertaken using more than 300 vertical hydrographic profiles of salinity and temperature. The analysis of model performance, including averaging of the ensemble results, was undertaken with a view to assessing the potential suitability of the models in reproducing the physics of the Baltic Sea accurately enough to serve as a basis for accurate simulations of biogeochemistry once ecosystem models are incorporated. The performance of the models was generally satisfactory. Nevertheless, all the models had some difficulties in correctly simulating vertical profiles of temperature and salinity, and hence mixed layer dynamics, particularly in the eastern Gulf of Finland. Results emphasized the need for high resolution in both vertical and horizontal directions in order to resolve the complex dynamics and bathymetry of the Baltic Sea. Future work needs to consider the choice of mixing and advection schemes, moving to higher resolution, high-frequency forcing, and the accurate representation of river discharges and boundary conditions.
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| 21. |
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| 22. |
- Otano, Itziar, et al.
(författare)
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CD137 (4-1BB) costimulation of CD8+ T cells is more potent when provided in cis than in trans with respect to CD3-TCR stimulation
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- CD137 (4-1BB; TNFSR9) is an activation-induced surface receptor that through costimulation effects provide antigen-primed T cells with augmented survival, proliferation and effector functions as well as metabolic advantages. These immunobiological mechanisms are being utilised for cancer immunotherapy with agonist CD137-binding and crosslinking-inducing agents that elicit CD137 intracellular signaling. In this study, side-by-side comparisons show that provision of CD137 costimulation in-cis with regard to the TCR-CD3-ligating cell is superior to that provided in-trans in terms of T cell activation, proliferation, survival, cytokine secretion and mitochondrial fitness in mouse and human. Cis ligation of CD137 relative to the TCR-CD3 complex results in more intense canonical and non-canonical NF-κB signaling and provides a more robust induction of cell cycle and DNA damage repair gene expression programs. Here we report that the superiority of cis versus trans CD137-costimulation is readily observed in vivo and is relevant for understanding the immunotherapeutic effects of CAR T cells and CD137 agonistic therapies currently undergoing clinical trials, which may provide costimulation either in cis or in trans.
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| 23. |
- Perez, Laura, et al.
(författare)
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Chronic burden of near-roadway traffic pollution in 10 European cities (APHEKOM network)
- 2013
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Ingår i: European Respiratory Journal. - Sheffield, England : European Respiratory Society. - 0903-1936 .- 1399-3003. ; 42:3, s. 594-605
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent epidemiological research suggests that near road traffic-related pollution may cause chronic disease, as well as exacerbate related pathologies, implying that the entire "chronic disease progression" should be attributed to air pollution, no matter what the proximate cause was. We estimated the burden of childhood asthma attributable to air pollution in 10 European cities by calculating the number of cases of 1) asthma caused by near road traffic-related pollution, and 2) acute asthma events related to urban air pollution levels. We then expanded our approach to include coronary heart diseases in adults.Derivation of attributable cases required combining concentration-response function (CRF) between exposures and the respective health outcome of interest (obtained from published literature), an estimate of the distribution of selected exposures in the target population, and information about the frequency of the assessed morbidities.Exposure to roads with high vehicle traffic, a proxy for near road traffic-related pollution, accounted for 14% of all asthma cases. When a causal relationship between near road traffic-related pollution and asthma is assumed, 15% of all episodes of asthma symptoms were attributable to air pollution. Without this assumption, only 2% of asthma symptoms were attributable to air pollution. Similar patterns were found for coronary heart diseases in older adults.Pollutants along busy roads are responsible for a large and preventable share of chronic disease and related acute exacerbation in European urban areas.
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| 24. |
- Savchuk, Oleg P., et al.
(författare)
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External nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, 1970-2006
- 2012
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Any research related to nutrient biogeochemistry of the Baltic Sea, especially studies of eutrophication requires knowledge of the long-term dynamics of external nutrient inputs. Information accumulated in the HELCOM’s pollution load compilations is too aggregated and, until recently, covered only specific years. On the other hand, national datasets with higher resolutions are often difficult to access. Therefore, over the years considerable efforts have been put into a compilation of consistent estimates of nutrient input to the entire Baltic Sea.Excluding exchange with the Skagerrak from this report, the external nutrient input is considered here as consisting of three component parts: waterborne land loads, direct point sources at the coasts, and atmospheric depositions.The present reconstruction of time series of these three components is based on three major sources. The compilation of the land loads database has started within the project “Large-scale Environmental Effects and Ecological Processes in the Baltic Sea, 1990-1995” (Wulff et al., 2001c), continued during the MARE (“Marine Research on Eutrophication, 1999-2006”) project (Wulff et al., 2001a, Eriksson Hägg et al., 2010), and was most recently updated and expanded in connection with the latest HELCOM’s activities on the pollution load compilation (HELCOM, 2011) and the revision of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP, Wulff et al., 2009). However, there is an important difference between information contained in the HELCOM publications and the data presented here.By its very international nature HELCOM has to deal with whatever data are officially provided by the contracting parties, ending up with certain gaps and inconsistencies in the data sets (e.g. see discussion in HELCOM, 2011). On the other hand, considering eutrophication as an imbalance in the large-scale nutrient cycles, whereby more nutrients come into the system than leave it (e.g. Savchuk and Wulff, 2009 and references therein), we need to know the total amounts of external input as close to the reality as possible. Therefore, in our reconstructions we have been trying to both fill such gaps in and correct possible sources of inconsistencies. The reconstructed data sets have extensively been used by ourselves for various nutrient budget estimates (e.g. Wulff et al., 2001b, Savchuk, 2005) and as the boundary conditions for biogeochemical models (e.g. Savchuk and Wulff, 2007, 2009) including development of the eutrophication segment of BSAP (Wulff, 2007), as well as by many researchers around the Baltic Sea, for instance, within several projects of the BONUS+ research programme (e.g.Eilola et al., 2011; Eriksson Hägg et al., 2011; Meier et al., 2011).The implemented nutrient inputs have naturally been described in these publications, but briefly. In order to facilitate afurther distribution of reconstructed inputs and their usage, here we describe the process of reconstruction in more detail and make available the full data sets in digital form.The data used for the reconstruction have kindly been provided by several institutions and agencies around the Baltic Sea (see below) as well as directly by HELCOM during preparation of PLC-4 and PLC-5 (see HELCOM, 2004, 2011). Since not all data providershad given the permission to distribute the original raw measurements, we have here 3 aggregated all the inputs according to the spatial segmentation of the Baltic Sea (Fig.1) currently implemented in the biogeochemical model BALTSEM (BAltic sea Long-Term large Scale Eutrophication Model). Note also that some part of riverine inputs is available in a decision support system Baltic Nest with a much higher spatial resolution, as is further explained below.
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| 25. |
- Savchuk, Oleg P., et al.
(författare)
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Long-term reconstruction of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, 1850-2006
- 2012
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A common intention in ecosystem approach to management of marine resources worldwide has become a ‘restoration of ecosystems’ to some better shape. Although appealing, this political, rather vague aim has to be made more precise in order to be useful as a management objective. Therefore, a crucial role in defining EO, EQS, ES, ET, and similar characteristics set forward by, e.g. BSAP, MSFD, ND, UWWTD, and WFD as well as by many other acronyms to come, belongs to some conventional numbers that are considered as representing so-called background or reference conditions, which existed before significant man-made disturbances. At the Baltic Sea, experiencing human influence for centuries, quantification of the reference conditions and designing of desired state of restored marine ecosystems is complicated by both the uncertainty of which past times might be considered as reference times and the lack of essential observations from those times. One of the major, if not the only reliable method for reconstruction of the reference trophic state is it’s simulation with biogeochemical models forced by the appropriate boundary conditions, including external nutrient inputs corresponding to the reference time interval. Once reconstructed, estimates of such “pristine” or, better to say, “pre-industrial” loads and their historical development can also be used both to test models’ capabilities in reproducing pre-eutrophied state of the Baltic Sea and to study the very development of its eutrophication. Plausible solution of these problems gives more credibility to simulated responses of the marine ecosystems to scenarios of load reductions. For the Baltic Sea, such approach was initiated by Schernewski and Neumann (2005) and Savchuk et al. (2008) and further developed in the ECOSUPPORT Project (Gustafsson et al., 2012), where also a reconstruction of nutrient inputs since 1850 was briefly described. In order to facilitate distribution of reconstructed inputs and their usage, here we describe the process of reconstruction in more detail and make available the full data sets in digital form. The reconstructed external nutrient inputs comprise two periods. Land loads and atmospheric deposition in 1970-2006 are based on the best available data with sufficiently high coverage and resolution (Savchuk et al., 2012), while temporal dynamics over 1850-1970 were interpolated between estimates prescribed for a few fixed years. Similarly to the dataset for 1970-2006, the reconstructed inputs are aggregated according to the spatial segmentation of the Baltic Sea (Fig. 1) currently implemented in the biogeochemical model BALTSEM (BAltic sea Long-Term large Scale Eutrophication Model).
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| 26. |
- Wulff, Fredrik, et al.
(författare)
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Revision of the country allocation of nutrient reductions in the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Section A: Hydrological adjusted riverine loads and atmospheric loads from different countries averaged for 2000 - 2006 : Technical Report No. 1
- 2009
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- HELCOM has asked BNI to revise the country-wise nutrient allocations of the Baltic Sea Action Plan using the new data available on atmospheric loads (EMEP) and more recent calculations on loads from the drainage basins (PLC5).We are here reporting the most recent and updated data on loads from the drainage basins, averaged for 2000-2006 and 1997-2003, based on data supplied by the HELCOM member states for the preparation of the Fifth Pollution Load compilation (PLC5).The nutrient load data for 1997-2003, the period used for the original country allocation sceme of BSAP as signed in Krakow 2007, have been updated as well as new estimates for 2000-2006. The latter period has been suggested by HELOM as the foundation for an updated BSAP.However, these periods include several very dry or wet years. Drastic changes of the inputs seen in these data may therefore partly reflect these hydrological variations rather thanreal changes of loads due to efforts by the countries to reduce emissions. We therefore found it necessary to normalise these values, taking into account variations in riverine flows.Russian data were found to be very incomplete and we therefore had to re-evaluate and compute new estimates, beyond those available in the PLC5 database.We also report recent calculations on atmospheric loads to the different Baltic sub basins, averaged for 1997-2003 and 2000-2006, made available on the Internet by EMEP and integrated into NEST. The loads are now source allocated to the different HELCOM countries and other sources in order to be used in the revision of the country allocation scheme of BSAP.
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