| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
- Ayala, Ana I., et al.
(författare)
-
Analysis of summer heat budget of lakes under a changing climate across a geographic gradient
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Warming surface water temperature is the most direct consequence of climate change in lakes and therefore, predicting the heat exchange at the air-water interface is important to understand how atmospheric forcing will affect lake temperature and thermal structure. Here, we forced a one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model with outputs from four different climate models under three future greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 1976 to 2099. To investigate the changes in summer (June to August or December to February in the northern or southern hemisphere, respectively) net surface heat flux and the individual flux components for 47 lakes with varying in size and geographic location were analysed. The results show that in the most extreme case (RCP 8.5) summer lake surface temperature is projected to increase by 4.72±0.70 °C by the end of the 21st century, due to increasing absorption of solar radiation (17.40±8.81 W m-2) and of long-wave radiation (33.01±5.44 W m-2). The increased lake surface temperature, also lead to higher heat losses to the atmosphere by outgoing long-wave radiation (27.54±4.07 W m-2) and by latent heat flux (25.10±7.37 W m-2), while a lower heat loss by sensible heat flux is projected (-3.20±1.94 W m-2). Altogether, the net heat balance and thus the accumulation of heat in the lakes over summer remains almost unchanged. However, a shift in the contributions of the individuals heat fluxes is projected, with the latent heat flux gaining relative importance.
|
|
| 3. |
- Feldbauer, Johannes, et al.
(författare)
-
Ensemble of models shows coherent response of a reservoir's stratification and ice cover to climate warming
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Aquatic Sciences. - : Springer Nature. - 1015-1621 .- 1420-9055. ; 84:4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Water temperature, ice cover, and lake stratification are important physical properties of lakes and reservoirs that control mixing as well as bio-geo-chemical processes and thus influence the water quality. We used an ensemble of vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake models driven with regional climate projections to calculate water temperature, stratification, and ice cover under the A1B emission scenario for the German drinking water reservoir Lichtenberg. We used an analysis of variance method to estimate the contributions of the considered sources of uncertainty on the ensemble output. For all simulated variables, epistemic uncertainty, which is related to the model structure, is the dominant source throughout the simulation period. Nonetheless, the calculated trends are coherent among the five models and in line with historical observations. The ensemble predicts an increase in surface water temperature of 0.34 K per decade, a lengthening of the summer stratification of 3.2 days per decade, as well as decreased probabilities of the occurrence of ice cover and winter inverse stratification by 2100. These expected changes are likely to influence the water quality of the reservoir. Similar trends are to be expected in other reservoirs and lakes in comparable regions.
|
|
| 4. |
- Holgerson, Meredith A., et al.
(författare)
-
Classifying Mixing Regimes in Ponds and Shallow Lakes
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Water resources research. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 58:7
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lakes are classified by thermal mixing regimes, with shallow waterbodies historically categorized as continuously mixing systems. Yet, recent studies demonstrate extended summertime stratification in ponds, underscoring the need to reassess thermal classifications for shallow waterbodies. In this study, we examined the summertime thermal dynamics of 34 ponds and shallow lakes across temperate North America and Europe to categorize and identify the drivers of different mixing regimes. We identified three mixing regimes: rarely (n = 18), intermittently (n = 10), and often (n = 6) mixed, where waterbodies mixed an average of 2%, 26%, and 75% of the study period, respectively. Waterbodies in the often mixed category were larger (≥4.17 ha) and stratification weakened with increased wind shear stress, characteristic of “shallow lakes.” In contrast, smaller waterbodies, or “ponds,” mixed less frequently, and stratification strengthened with increased shortwave radiation. Shallow ponds (<0.74 m) mixed intermittently, with daytime stratification often breaking down overnight due to convective cooling. Ponds ≥0.74 m deep were rarely or never mixed, likely due to limited wind energy relative to the larger density gradients associated with slightly deeper water columns. Precipitation events weakened stratification, even causing short-term mixing (hours to days) in some sites. By examining a broad set of shallow waterbodies, we show that mixing regimes are highly sensitive to very small differences in size and depth, with potential implications for ecological and biogeochemical processes. Ultimately, we propose a new framework to characterize the variable mixing regimes of ponds and shallow lakes.
|
|
| 5. |
- Jiménez-Navarro, Inmaculada C., et al.
(författare)
-
Application of an integrated catchment-lake model approach for simulating effects of climate change on lake inputs and biogeochemistry
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 885
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is simultaneously affecting lakes and their catchments, resulting in altered runoff patterns in the catchment and modified mixing and biogeochemical dynamics in lakes. The effects of climate change in a catchment will eventually have an impact on the dynamics of a downstream water body as well. An integrated model would allow considering how changes in the watershed affect the lake, but coupled modelling studies are rare. In this study we integrate a catchment model (SWAT+) and a lake model (GOTM-WET) to obtain holistic predictions for Lake Erken, Sweden. Using five different global climate models, projections of climate, catchment loads and lake water quality for the mid and end of the 21st century have been obtained under two future scenarios (SSP 2-45 and SSP 5-85). Temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration will increase in the future, overall resulting in an increase in water inflow to the lake. An increasing importance of surface runoff will also have consequences on the catchment soil, hydrologic flow paths, and the input of nutrients to the lake. In the lake, water temperatures will rise, leading to increased stratification and a drop in oxygen levels. Nitrate levels are predicted to remain unchanged, while phosphate and ammonium levels increase. A coupled catchment-lake configuration such as that illustrated here allows prediction of future biogeochemical conditions of a lake, including linking land use changes to changing lake conditions, as well as eutrophication and browning studies. Since climate affects both the lake and the catchment, simulations of climate change should ideally take into account both systems.
|
|
| 6. |
- Lin, Shuqi, et al.
(författare)
-
Prediction of algal blooms via data-driven machine learning models : an evaluation using data from a well-monitored mesotrophic lake
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 16:1, s. 35-46
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With increasing lake monitoring data, data-drivenmachine learning (ML) models might be able to capture thecomplex algal bloom dynamics that cannot be completely described in process-based (PB) models. We applied two MLmodels, the gradient boost regressor (GBR) and long shortterm memory (LSTM) network, to predict algal blooms andseasonal changes in algal chlorophyll concentrations (Chl) ina mesotrophic lake. Three predictive workflows were tested,one based solely on available measurements and the othersapplying a two-step approach, first estimating lake nutrientsthat have limited observations and then predicting Chl usingobserved and pre-generated environmental factors. The thirdworkflow was developed using hydrodynamic data derivedfrom a PB model as additional training features in the twostep ML approach. The performance of the ML models wassuperior to a PB model in predicting nutrients and Chl. Thehybrid model further improved the prediction of the timingand magnitude of algal blooms. A data sparsity test based onshuffling the order of training and testing years showed theaccuracy of ML models decreased with increasing sampleinterval, and model performance varied with training–testingyear combinations.
|
|
| 7. |
- Mesman, Jorrit P., 1993-
(författare)
-
Assessing future effects on lake ecosystem resilience using data analysis and dynamic modelling : Modelling the effects of extreme weather events and climate warming on lakes
- 2021
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Extreme weather events can have short-term and long-term effects on lake thermal structure, nutrient dynamics, and community composition. Moreover, changes in lake variables induced by global climate change may influence the response and recovery of lake ecosystems to extreme weather events. The linkage between extreme weather and lakes includes interactions between physics and biology, and long-term and short-term dynamics, which are not yet well understood. Process-based modelling is used in this thesis to further explore this topic, and to assess how lake responses to extreme weather events may change under the influence of climate warming.Lake-internal feedback mechanisms were shown to potentially cause sudden shifts in climate-induced transitions in lake mixing regimes, with a role for extreme weather events to induce such shifts. Additionally, one-dimensional physical lake models performed well in reproducing trends in lake variables during storms and heatwaves in a study covering multiple locations and models. However, extreme weather events still presented periods of increased model uncertainty, which should be taken into account. A software package was developed to promote the use of ensemble lake modelling, which is one way to include uncertainty in model forecasting efforts. This could be particularly helpful in periods of extreme weather. With tools and theory now in place, a coupled physical-biogeochemical model was then used to assess what are the most important drivers of how lake phytoplankton responds to storms, and how this response might change with climate warming. Storm intensity, thermal structure, nutrients, and light all affected the phytoplankton concentration after storms. Moderate wind speeds had increasing effects compared to high wind speeds, but a sufficiently deep mixed layer reduced the response to wind strongly. Higher nutrients and light promoted increasing effects of wind, and higher temperatures promoted decreasing effects. The response of phytoplankton to storms did not change markedly between present-day and future-climate scenarios.This thesis furthers our understanding of the processes involved in extreme events acting on lakes. A more complete understanding is necessary to develop more reliable models and anticipate future conditions. Furthermore, modelling was shown to be a viable approach to study these events and validation data and tools were provided to increase the reliability of this method. In these times of increasing environmental pressures and changing extreme weather patterns, more insight into future effects of extreme events is much needed.
|
|
| 8. |
- Mesman, Jorrit P., 1993-, et al.
(författare)
-
Drivers of phytoplankton responses to summer wind events in a stratified lake : a modelling study
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Limnology and Oceanography. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0024-3590 .- 1939-5590. ; 67:4, s. 856-873
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Extreme wind events affect lake phytoplankton amongst others by deepening the mixed layer and increasing internal nutrient loading. Both increases and decreases of phytoplankton biomass after storms have been observed, but the precise mechanisms driving these responses remain poorly understood or quantified. In this study, we coupled a one-dimensional physical model to a biogeochemical model to investigate the factors regulating short-term phytoplankton responses to summer storms, now and under expected warmer future conditions. We simulated physical, chemical and biological dynamics in Lake Erken, Sweden, and found that wind storms could increase or decrease the phytoplankton concentration one week after the storm, depending on antecedent lake physical and chemical conditions. Storms had little effect on phytoplankton biomass if the mixed layer was deep prior to storm exposure. Higher incoming shortwave radiation and hypolimnetic nutrient concentration boosted growth, whereas higher surface water temperatures decreased phytoplankton concentration after storms. Medium-intensity wind speeds resulted in more phytoplankton biomass after storms than high-intensity wind. Simulations under a future climate scenario did not show marked differences in the way wind affects phytoplankton growth following storms. Our study shows that storm impacts on lake phytoplankton are complex and likely to vary as a function of local environmental conditions.
|
|
| 9. |
- Mesman, Jorrit P., 1993-, et al.
(författare)
-
Performance of one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake models during short-term extreme weather events
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 133
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Numerical lake models are useful tools to study hydrodynamics in lakes, and are increasingly applied to extreme weather events. However, little is known about the accuracy of such models during these short-term events. We used high-frequency data from three lakes to test the performance of three one-dimensional (1D) hydrodynamic models (Simstrat, GOTM, GLM) during storms and heatwaves. Models reproduced the overall direction and magnitude of changes during the extreme events, with accurate timing and little bias. Changes in volume-averaged and surface temperatures and Schmidt stability were simulated more accurately than changes in bottom temperature, maximum buoyancy frequency, or mixed layer depth. However, in most cases the model error was higher (30-100%) during extreme events compared to reference periods. As a consequence, while 1D lake models can be used to study effects of extreme weather events, the increased uncertainty in the simulations should be taken into account when interpreting results.
|
|
| 10. |
- Mesman, Jorrit P., 1993-, et al.
(författare)
-
The role of internal feedbacks in shifting deep lake mixing regimes under a warming climate
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Freshwater Biology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0046-5070 .- 1365-2427. ; 66:6, s. 1021-1035
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate warming is causing changes in the physics of deep lakes, such as longer summer stratification, increased water column stability, reduced ice cover, and a shallower depth of winter overturns. An ultimate consequence of warming would be a transition to a different mixing regime. Here we investigate the role of physical, chemical, and biological feedback mechanisms that unfold during a shift in mixing regime, and whether these feedbacks could prompt and stabilise the new regime. Although climate, interannual temperature variation, and lake morphometry are the main determinants of a mixing regime, when climate change causes shifts in mixing regime, internal feedback mechanisms may gain in importance and modify lake ecosystem functioning.We review the role of these feedbacks in three mixing regime shifts: from polymictic to seasonally stratified, from dimictic to monomictic, and from holomictic to oligomictic or meromictic.Polymictic lakes of intermediate depth (c. 3–10 m mean depth) could experience seasonal stratification if a stratification event triggers phytoplankton blooms or dissolved organic matter release, reducing transparency and therefore further heating the surface layer. However, this feedback is only likely to have influence in small and clear lakes, it would be easily disturbed by weather conditions, and the resulting stratified state does not remain stable in the long term, as stratification is lost in winter.The ice-albedo feedback might cause an accelerated shift from ice-covered (dimictic) to ice-free (monomictic) winters in sufficiently deep (mean depth 50 m or more) lakes, where temperature memory is carried over from one winter to the next. Nevertheless, there is an ongoing debate into whether this process can persist during natural weather variations and overcome self-stabilising mechanisms such as thermal insulation by snow. The majority of studies suggest that a gradual transition from dimictic to monomictic is more likely than an abrupt transition.A shift from a holomictic to a meromictic regime can occur if anoxia is triggered by incomplete mixing and an increase in deep-water density—through the accumulation of solutes—exceeds a density decrease by hypolimnetic warming. A shift to meromixis would strongly alter the biology of a lake and might be difficult to reverse. If solutes accumulate only minimally in the hypolimnion, an oligomictic regime is formed, in which years with complete and incomplete mixing alternate.Understanding the importance of feedback mechanisms and the role of biogeochemistry when lakes shift in mixing regime could lead to a better understanding of how climate change affects lake ecosystems.
|
|
| 11. |
- Mesman, Jorrit P., 1993-, et al.
(författare)
-
Timing of spring events changes under modelled future climate scenarios in a mesotrophic lake
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : European Geosciences Union (EGU). - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 28:8, s. 1791-1802
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lakes experience shifts in the timing of physical and biogeochemical events as a result of climate warming, and relative changes in the timing of events may have important ecological consequences. Spring, in particular, is a period in which many key processes that regulate the ecology and biogeochemistry of lakes occur and also a time that may experience significant changes under the influence of global warming. In this study, we used a coupled catchment–lake model forced by future climate projections to evaluate changes in the timing of spring discharge, ice-off, the spring phytoplankton peak, and the onset of stratification in a temperate mesotrophic lake. Although the model explained only part of the variation in these events, the overall patterns were simulated with little bias. All four events showed a clear trend towards earlier occurrence under climate warming, with ice cover tending to disappear at the end of the century in the most extreme climate scenario. Moreover, relative shifts in the timing of these springtime events also occurred, with the onset of stratification tending to advance more slowly than the other events and the spring phytoplankton peak and ice-off advancing faster in the most extreme climate scenario. The outcomes of this study stress the impact of climate change on the phenology of events in lakes and especially the relative shifts in timing during spring. This can have profound effects on food web dynamics as well as other regulatory processes and influence the lake for the remainder of the growing season.
|
|
| 12. |
|
|
| 13. |
|
|
| 14. |
- Moore, Tadhg N, et al.
(författare)
-
LakeEnsemblR : An R package that facilitates ensemble modelling of lakes
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 143
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Model ensembles have several benefits compared to single-model applications but are not frequently used within the lake modelling community. Setting up and running multiple lake models can be challenging and time consuming, despite the many similarities between the existing models (forcing data, hypsograph, etc.). Here we present an R package, LakeEnsemblR, that facilitates running ensembles of five different vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake models (FLake, GLM, GOTM, Simstrat, MyLake). The package requires input in a standardised format and a single configuration file. LakeEnsemblR formats these files to the input required by each model, and provides functions to run and calibrate the models. The outputs of the different models are compiled into a single file, and several post-processing operations are supported. LakeEnsemblR's workflow standardisation can simplify model benchmarking and uncertainty quantification, and improve collaborations between scientists. We showcase the successful application of LakeEnsemblR for two different lakes.
|
|
| 15. |
- Ray, Nicholas E. E., et al.
(författare)
-
Spatial and temporal variability in summertime dissolved carbon dioxide and methane in temperate ponds and shallow lakes
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Limnology and Oceanography. - : American Society of Limnology and Oceanography. - 0024-3590 .- 1939-5590. ; 68:7, s. 1530-1545
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Small waterbodies have potentially high greenhouse gas emissions relative to their small footprint on the landscape, although there is high uncertainty in model estimates. Scaling their carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) exchange with the atmosphere remains challenging due to an incomplete understanding and characterization of spatial and temporal variability in CO2 and CH4. Here, we measured partial pressures of CO2 (pCO2) and CH4 (pCH4) across 30 ponds and shallow lakes during summer in temperate regions of Europe and North America. We sampled each waterbody in three locations at three times during the growing season, and tested which physical, chemical, and biological characteristics related to the means and variability of pCO2 and pCH4 in space and time. Summer means of pCO2 and pCH4 were inversely related to waterbody size and positively related to floating vegetative cover; pCO2 was also positively related to dissolved phosphorus. Temporal variability in partial pressure in both gases weas greater than spatial variability. Although sampling on a single date was likely to misestimate mean seasonal pCO2 by up to 26%, mean seasonal pCH4 could be misestimated by up to 64.5%. Shallower systems displayed the most temporal variability in pCH4 and waterbodies with more vegetation cover had lower temporal variability. Inland waters remain one of the most uncertain components of the global carbon budget; understanding spatial and temporal variability will ultimately help us to constrain our estimates and inform research priorities.
|
|
| 16. |
- Reinl, Kaitlin L., et al.
(författare)
-
Cyanobacterial blooms in oligotrophic lakes : Shifting the high-nutrient paradigm
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Freshwater Biology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0046-5070 .- 1365-2427. ; 66:9, s. 1846-1859
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Freshwater cyanobacterial blooms have become ubiquitous, posing major threats to ecological and public health. Decades of research have focused on understanding drivers of these blooms with a primary focus on eutrophic systems; however, cyanobacterial blooms also occur in oligotrophic systems, but have received far less attention, resulting in a gap in our understanding of cyanobacterial blooms overall. In this review, we explore evidence of cyanobacterial blooms in oligotrophic freshwater systems and provide explanations for those occurrences. We show that through their unique physiological adaptations, cyanobacteria are able to thrive under a wide range of environmental conditions, including low-nutrient waterbodies. We contend that to fully understand cyanobacterial blooms, and thereby mitigate and manage them, we must expand our inquiries to consider systems along the trophic gradient, and not solely focus on eutrophic systems, thus shifting the high-nutrient paradigm to a trophic-gradient paradigm.
|
|
| 17. |
- Stelzer, Julio Alberto Alegre, et al.
(författare)
-
Early warning signals of regime shifts for aquatic systems : Can experiments help to bridge the gap between theory and real-world application?
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Ecological Complexity. - : Elsevier. - 1476-945X .- 1476-9840. ; 47
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Early-warning signals of a regime shift (EWS) indicate, for a wide range of systems, if a tipping-point is being approached. In ecology, EWS are well established from a theoretical perspective but are far from unequivocal when applied to field data. The gap between theory and application is caused by a set of limitations, like the lack of coherence between different EWS, data acquisition issues, and false results. Experiments assessing EWS may provide an empirical mechanistic understanding of why an EWS was observed (or failed to be observed), which often cannot be elucidated by simple computational modeling or pure environmental data. Here we focused on aquatic experiments to explore to what extent the existing EWS experiments can bridge the gap between the theory and real-world application. For that, we used the Thomson-ISI Web of Science (c) database to retrieve EWS experiments executed before early-2020, detailing their experimental designs and each EWS assessed. Success rates - correct anticipation of tipping points - were around 70% for the most used EWS (assessment of autocorrelation, variance, recovery, and shape of the distribution using abundance, Chlorophyll-a, Phycocyanin, and dissolved oxygen data). Yet, no EWS showed to be 100% reliable, and their use demands cautious interpretation. As a rule, we observed that experiments were not designed to tackle issues encountered in real-world situations. They lack a deep mechanistic understanding of why, when, and how an EWS was observed or not. When experiments did aim to assess issues encountered in the real world, the experimental designs were often of low ecological significance. We also investigated the relationship between sampling and the success rate of EWS, observing that the sampling regime might have to be tailor-made towards specific monitoring objectives. Moreover, experiments have taught us that the use of EWS can be more versatile than expected, going from monitoring the extinction of single populations to the anticipation of transient regime shifts. Most of the experiments presented here supported empirical proof of the existence of EWS in aquatic systems. Still, to bridge the gap between theory and application, experiments will have to move closer to real-world conditions and better support a mechanistic understanding of why EWS may succeed or fail to anticipate a regime shift. For that, we provide six elements to take into account when designing experiments that could enhance the capabilities of EWS to go beyond the stage of proof-of-concept.
|
|
| 18. |
- Stelzer, Julio A. A., et al.
(författare)
-
Phytoplankton responses to repeated pulse perturbations imposed on a trend of increasing eutrophication
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 12:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While eutrophication remains one of the main pressures acting on freshwater ecosystems, the prevalence of anthropogenic and nature-induced stochastic pulse perturbations is predicted to increase due to climate change. Despite all our knowledge on the effects of eutrophication and stochastic events operating in isolation, we know little about how eutrophication may affect the response and recovery of aquatic ecosystems to pulse perturbations. There are multiple ways in which eutrophication and pulse perturbations may interact to induce potentially synergic changes in the system, for instance, by increasing the amount of nutrients released after a pulse perturbation. Here, we performed a controlled press and pulse perturbation experiment using mesocosms filled with natural lake water to address how eutrophication modulates the phytoplankton response to sequential mortality pulse perturbations; and what is the combined effect of press and pulse perturbations on the resistance and resilience of the phytoplankton community. Our experiment showed that eutrophication increased the absolute scale of the chlorophyll-a response to pulse perturbations but did not change the proportion of the response relative to its pre-event condition (resistance). Moreover, the capacity of the community to recover from pulse perturbations was significantly affected by the cumulative effect of sequential pulse perturbations but not by eutrophication itself. By the end of the experiment, some mesocosms could not recover from pulse perturbations, irrespective of the trophic state induced by the press perturbation. While not resisting or recovering any less from pulse perturbations, phytoplankton communities from eutrophying systems showed chlorophyll-a levels much higher than non-eutrophying ones. This implies that the higher absolute response to stochastic pulse perturbations in a eutrophying system may increase the already significant risks for water quality (e.g., algal blooms in drinking water supplies), even if the relative scale of the response to pulse perturbations between eutrophying and non-eutrophying systems remains the same.
|
|
| 19. |
- Thayne, Michael W., et al.
(författare)
-
Antecedent lake conditions shape resistance and resilience of a shallow lake ecosystem following extreme wind storms
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Limnology and Oceanography. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0024-3590 .- 1939-5590. ; 67:S1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Extreme wind storms can strongly influence short-term variation in lake ecosystem functioning. Climate change is affecting storms by altering their frequency, duration, and intensity, which may have consequences for lake ecosystem resistance and resilience. However, catchment and lake processes are simultaneously affecting antecedent lake conditions which may shape the resistance and resilience landscape prior to storm exposure. To determine whether storm characteristics or antecedent lake conditions are more important for explaining variation in lake ecosystem resistance and resilience, we analyzed the effects of 25 extreme wind storms on various biological and physiochemical variables in a shallow lake. Using boosted regression trees to model observed variation in resistance and resilience, we found that antecedent lake conditions were more important (relative importance = 67%) than storm characteristics (relative importance = 33%) in explaining variation in lake ecosystem resistance and resilience. The most important antecedent lake conditions were turbidity, Schmidt stability, %O2 saturation, light conditions, and soluble reactive silica concentrations. We found that storm characteristics were all similar in their relative importance and results suggest that resistance and resilience decrease with increasing duration, mean precipitation, shear stress intensity, and time between storms. In addition, we found that antagonistic or opposing effects between the biological and physiochemical variables influence the overall resistance and resilience of the lake ecosystem under specific lake and storm conditions. The extent to which these results apply to the resistance and resilience of different lake ecosystems remains an important area for inquiry.
|
|
| 20. |
- Thayne, Michael W., et al.
(författare)
-
Lake surface water temperature and oxygen saturation resistance and resilience following extreme storms : Chlorophyll a shapes resistance toward storms
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Inland Waters. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 2044-2041 .- 2044-205X. ; , s. 1-53
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Extreme storms are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change. Assessing lake ecosystem responses to extreme storms (resistance) and their capacity to recover (resilience) is critical for predicting the future of lake ecosystems in a stormier world. Here we provide a systematic, standardized and quantitative approach for identifying critical processes shaping lake ecosystem resistance following extreme storms. We identified 576 extreme wind storms for eight lakes in Europe and North America. We calculated the resistance and resilience of each lake’s surface water temperature and oxygen saturation following each storm. Sharp decreases and increases in epilimnetic temperature and oxygen saturation caused by extreme storms resulted in unpredictable changes in lake resilience values across lakes, with a tendency not to return to pre-storm conditions. Resistance was primarily shaped by mean annual chlorophyll a concentration and its overall relationship with other physiochemical lake and storm characteristics. We modeled variation in resistance as a function of both lake and storm conditions, and the results suggested that eutrophic lakes were consistently less resistant to extreme storms when compared to oligotrophic lakes. The lakes tended to be most resistant towards extreme storms when antecedent surface waters were warm and oxygen saturated, but overall resistance was highest in lakes with low concentrations of mean annual chlorophyll a and total phosphorus. Our findings suggest physiochemical responses of lakes to meteorological forcing is shaped by ecological and/or physical feedbacks and processes that determine trophic state, such as the influence of differences in nutrient availability and algal growth.
|
|
| 21. |
- Woolway, R. Iestyn, et al.
(författare)
-
Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Nature. - 2041-1723. ; 12:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 +/- 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 +/- 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 +/- 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.
|
|
