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1.
  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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2.
  • Birney, Ewan, et al. (författare)
  • Identification and analysis of functional elements in 1% of the human genome by the ENCODE pilot project
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 447:7146, s. 799-816
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We report the generation and analysis of functional data from multiple, diverse experiments performed on a targeted 1% of the human genome as part of the pilot phase of the ENCODE Project. These data have been further integrated and augmented by a number of evolutionary and computational analyses. Together, our results advance the collective knowledge about human genome function in several major areas. First, our studies provide convincing evidence that the genome is pervasively transcribed, such that the majority of its bases can be found in primary transcripts, including non-protein-coding transcripts, and those that extensively overlap one another. Second, systematic examination of transcriptional regulation has yielded new understanding about transcription start sites, including their relationship to specific regulatory sequences and features of chromatin accessibility and histone modification. Third, a more sophisticated view of chromatin structure has emerged, including its inter-relationship with DNA replication and transcriptional regulation. Finally, integration of these new sources of information, in particular with respect to mammalian evolution based on inter- and intra-species sequence comparisons, has yielded new mechanistic and evolutionary insights concerning the functional landscape of the human genome. Together, these studies are defining a path for pursuit of a more comprehensive characterization of human genome function.
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4.
  • Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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5.
  • Kattge, Jens, et al. (författare)
  • TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26:1, s. 119-188
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.
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6.
  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (författare)
  • Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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7.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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8.
  • Wang, Li-San, et al. (författare)
  • Rarity of the Alzheimer Disease-Protective APP A673T Variant in the United States.
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: JAMA neurology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6157 .- 2168-6149. ; 72:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Recently, a rare variant in the amyloid precursor protein gene (APP) was described in a population from Iceland. This variant, in which alanine is replaced by threonine at position 673 (A673T), appears to protect against late-onset Alzheimer disease (AD). We evaluated the frequency of this variant in AD cases and cognitively normal controls to determine whether this variant will significantly contribute to risk assessment in individuals in the United States.
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9.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Atmospheric gas dynamics in the Perseus cluster observed with Hitomi
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Extending the earlier measurements reported in Hitomi collaboration (2016, Nature, 535, 117), we examine the atmospheric gas motions within the central 100 kpc of the Perseus cluster using observations obtained with the Hitomi satellite. After correcting for the point spread function of the telescope and using optically thin emission lines, we find that the line-of-sight velocity dispersion of the hot gas is remarkably low and mostly uniform. The velocity dispersion reaches a maxima of approximately 200 km s(-1) toward the central active galactic nucleus (AGN) and toward the AGN inflated northwestern ghost bubble. Elsewhere within the observed region, the velocity dispersion appears constant around 100 km s(-1). We also detect a velocity gradient with a 100 km s(-1) amplitude across the cluster core, consistent with large-scale sloshing of the core gas. If the observed gas motions are isotropic, the kinetic pressure support is less than 10% of the thermal pressure support in the cluster core. The well-resolved, optically thin emission lines have Gaussian shapes, indicating that the turbulent driving scale is likely below 100 kpc, which is consistent with the size of the AGN jet inflated bubbles. We also report the first measurement of the ion temperature in the intracluster medium, which we find to be consistent with the electron temperature. In addition, we present a new measurement of the redshift of the brightest cluster galaxy NGC 1275.
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10.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Atomic data and spectral modeling constraints from high-resolution X-ray observations of the Perseus cluster with Hitomi
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Hitomi Soft X-ray Spectrometer spectrum of the Perseus cluster, with similar to 5 eV resolution in the 2-9 keV band, offers an unprecedented benchmark of the atomic modeling and database for hot collisional plasmas. It reveals both successes and challenges of the current atomic data and models. The latest versions of AtomDB/APEC (3.0.8), SPEX (3.03.00), and CHIANTI (8.0) all provide reasonable fits to the broad-band spectrum, and are in close agreement on best-fit temperature, emission measure, and abundances of a few elements such as Ni. For the Fe abundance, the APEC and SPEX measurements differ by 16%, which is 17 times higher than the statistical uncertainty. This is mostly attributed to the differences in adopted collisional excitation and dielectronic recombination rates of the strongest emission lines. We further investigate and compare the sensitivity of the derived physical parameters to the astrophysical source modeling and instrumental effects. The Hitomi results show that accurate atomic data and models are as important as the astrophysical modeling and instrumental calibration aspects. Substantial updates of atomic databases and targeted laboratory measurements are needed to get the current data and models ready for the data from the next Hitomi-level mission.
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11.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Detection of polarized gamma-ray emission from the Crab nebula with the Hitomi Soft Gamma-ray Detector
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:6
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present the results from the Hitomi Soft Gamma-ray Detector (SGD) observation of the Crab nebula. The main part of SGD is a Compton camera, which in addition to being a spectrometer, is capable of measuring polarization of gamma-ray photons. The Crab nebula is one of the brightest X-ray / gamma-ray sources on the sky, and, the only source from which polarized X-ray photons have been detected. SGD observed the Crab nebula during the initial test observation phase of Hitomi. We performed the data analysis of the SGD observation, the SGD background estimation and the SGD Monte Carlo simulations, and, successfully detected polarized gamma-ray emission from the Crab nebula with only about 5 ks exposure time. The obtained polarization fraction of the phase-integrated Crab emission (sum of pulsar and nebula emissions) is (22.1% +/- 10.6%), and, the polarization angle is 110.degrees 7 + 13.degrees 2 /-13.degrees 0 in the energy range of 60-160 keV (The errors correspond to the 1 sigma deviation). The confidence level of the polarization detection was 99.3%. The polarization angle measured by SGD is about one sigma deviation with the projected spin axis of the pulsar, 124.degrees 0 +/- 0.degrees 1.
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12.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Glimpse of the highly obscured HMXB IGR J16318-4848 with Hitomi
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We report on a Hitomi observation of IGR J16318-4848, a high-mass X-ray binary system with an extremely strong absorption of N-H similar to 10(24) cm(-2). Previous X-ray studies revealed that its spectrum is dominated by strong fluorescence lines of Fe as well as continuum emission lines. For physical and geometrical insight into the nature of the reprocessing material, we utilized the high spectroscopic resolving power of the X-ray microcalorimeter (the soft X-ray spectrometer: SXS) and the wide-band sensitivity by the soft and hard X-ray imagers (SXI and HXI) aboard Hitomi. Even though the photon counts are limited due to unintended off-axis pointing, the SXS spectrum resolves Fe K alpha(1) and K alpha(2) lines and puts strong constraints on the line centroid and line width. The line width corresponds to a velocity of 160(-70)(+300) km s(-1). This represents the most accurate, and smallest, width measurement of this line made so far from the any X-ray binary, much less than the Doppler broadening and Doppler shift expected from speeds that are characteristic of similar systems. Combined with the K-shell edge energy measured by the SXI and HXI spectra, the ionization state of Fe is estimated to be in the range of Fe I-IV. Considering the estimated ionization parameter and the distance between the X-ray source and the absorber, the density and thickness of the materials are estimated. The extraordinarily strong absorption and the absence of a Compton shoulder component have been confirmed. These characteristics suggest reprocessing materials that are distributed in a narrow solid angle or scattering, primarily by warm free electrons or neutral hydrogen. This measurement was achieved using the SXS detection of 19 photons. It provides strong motivation for follow-up observations of this and other X-ray binaries using the X-ray Astrophysics Recovery Mission and other comparable future instruments.
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13.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Hitomi observation of radio galaxy NGC 1275 : The first X-ray microcalorimeter spectroscopy of Fe-K alpha line emission from an active galactic nucleus
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The origin of the narrow Fe-K alpha fluorescence line at 6.4 keV from active galactic nuclei has long been under debate; some of the possible sites are the outer accretion disk, the broad line region, a molecular torus, or interstellar/intracluster media. In 2016 February-March, we performed the first X-ray microcalorimeter spectroscopy with the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) on board the Hitomi satellite of the Fanaroff-Riley type I radio galaxy NGC 1275 at the center of the Perseus cluster of galaxies. With the high-energy resolution of similar to 5 eV at 6 keV achieved by Hitomi/SXS, we detected the Fe-K alpha line with similar to 5.4 sigma significance. The velocity width is constrained to be 500-1600 km s(-1) (FWHM for Gaussian models) at 90% confidence. The SXS also constrains the continuum level from the NGC 1275 nucleus up to similar to 20 keV, giving an equivalent width of similar to 20 eV for the 6.4 keV line. Because the velocity width is narrower than that of the broad H alpha line of similar to 2750 km s(-1), we can exclude a large contribution to the line flux from the accretion disk and the broad line region. Furthermore, we performed pixel map analyses on the Hitomi/SXS data and image analyses on the Chandra archival data, and revealed that the Fe-K alpha line comes from a region within similar to 1.6 kpc of the NGC 1275 core, where an active galactic nucleus emission dominates, rather than that from intracluster media. Therefore, we suggest that the source of the Fe-K alpha line from NGC 1275 is likely a low-covering-fraction molecular torus or a rotating molecular disk which probably extends from a parsec to hundreds of parsecs scale in the active galactic nucleus system.
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14.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Hitomi observations of the LMC SNR N 132 D : Highly redshifted X-ray emission from iron ejecta
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present Hitomi observations of N 132 D, a young, X-ray bright, O-rich core-collapse supernova remnant in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Despite a very short observation of only 3.7 ks, the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) easily detects the line complexes of highly ionized S K and Fe K with 16-17 counts in each. The Fe feature is measured for the first time at high spectral resolution. Based on the plausible assumption that the Fe K emission is dominated by He-like ions, we find that the material responsible for this Fe emission is highly redshifted at similar to 800 km s(-1) compared to the local LMC interstellar medium (ISM), with a 90% credible interval of 50-1500 km s(-1) if a weakly informative prior is placed on possible line broadening. This indicates (1) that the Fe emission arises from the supernova ejecta, and (2) that these ejecta are highly asymmetric, since no blueshifted component is found. The S K velocity is consistent with the local LMC ISM, and is likely from swept-up ISM material. These results are consistent with spatial mapping that shows the He-like Fe concentrated in the interior of the remnant and the S tracing the outer shell. The results also show that even with a very small number of counts, direct velocity measurements from Doppler-shifted lines detected in extended objects like supernova remnants are now possible. Thanks to the very low SXS background of similar to 1 event per spectral resolution element per 100 ks, such results are obtainable during short pointed or slew observations with similar instruments. This highlights the power of high-spectral-resolution imaging observations, and demonstrates the new window that has been opened with Hitomi and will be greatly widened with future missions such as the X-ray Astronomy Recovery Mission (XARM) and Athena.
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15.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Hitomi X-ray observation of the pulsar wind nebula G21.5-0.9
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present results from the Hitomi X-ray observation of a young composite-type supernova remnant (SNR) G21.5-0.9, whose emission is dominated by the pulsar wind nebula (PWN) contribution. The X-ray spectra in the 0.8-80 keV range obtained with the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS), Soft X-ray Imager, and Hard X-ray Imager (HXI) show a significant break in the continuum as previously found with the NuSTAR observation. After taking into account all known emissions from the SNR other than the PWN itself, we find that the Hitomi spectra can be fitted with a broken power law with photon indices of Gamma(1) = 1.74 +/- 0.02 and Gamma(2) = 2.14 +/- 0.01 below and above the break at 7.1 +/- 0.3 keV, which is significantly lower than the NuSTAR result (similar to 9.0 keV). The spectral break cannot be reproduced by time-dependent particle injection one-zone spectral energy distribution models, which strongly indicates that a more complex emission model is needed, as suggested by recent theoretical models. We also search for narrow emission or absorption lines with the SXS, and perform a timing analysis of PSR J1833-1034 with the HXI and the Soft Gamma-ray Detector. No significant pulsation is found from the pulsar. However, unexpectedly, narrow absorption line features are detected in the SXS data at 4.2345 keV and 9.296 keV with a significance of 3.65 sigma. While the origin of these features is not understood, their mere detection opens up a new field of research and was only possible with the high resolution, sensitivity, and ability to measure extended sources provided by an X-ray microcalorimeter.
  •  
16.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Hitomi X-ray studies of giant radio pulses from the Crab pulsar
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • To search for giant X-ray pulses correlated with the giant radio pulses (GRPs) from the Crab pulsar, we performed a simultaneous observation of the Crab pulsar with the X-ray satellite Hitomi in the 2-300 keV band and the Kashima NICT radio telescope in the 1.4-1.7 GHz band with a net exposure of about 2 ks on 2016 March 25, just before the loss of the Hitomi mission. The timing performance of the Hitomi instruments was confirmed to meet the timing requirement and about 1000 and 100 GRPs were simultaneously observed at the main pulse and inter-pulse phases, respectively, and we found no apparent correlation between the giant radio pulses and the X-ray emission in either the main pulse or inter-pulse phase. All variations are within the 2 sigma fluctuations of the X-ray fluxes at the pulse peaks, and the 3 sigma upper limits of variations of main pulse or inter-pulse GRPs are 22% or 80% of the peak flux in a 0.20 phase width, respectively, in the 2-300 keV band. The values for main pulse or inter-pulse GRPs become 25% or 110%, respectively, when the phase width is restricted to the 0.03 phase. Among the upper limits from the Hitomi satellite, those in the 4.5-10 keV and 70-300 keV bands are obtained for the first time, and those in other bands are consistent with previous reports. Numerically, the upper limits of the main pulse and inter-pulse GRPs in the 0.20 phase width are about (2.4 and 9.3) x 10(-11) erg cm(-2), respectively. No significant variability in pulse profiles implies that the GRPs originated from a local place within the magneto-sphere. Although the number of photon-emitting particles should temporarily increase to account for the brightening of the radio emission, the results do not statistically rule out variations correlated with the GRPs, because the possible X-ray enhancement may appear due to a > 0.02% brightening of the pulse-peak flux under such conditions.
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17.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Measurements of resonant scattering in the Perseus Cluster core with Hitomi SXS
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Thanks to its high spectral resolution (similar to 5 eV at 6 keV), the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) on board Hitomi enables us to measure the detailed structure of spatially resolved emission lines from highly ionized ions in galaxy clusters for the first time. In this series of papers, using the SXS we have measured the velocities of gas motions, metallicities and the multi-temperature structure of the gas in the core of the Perseus Cluster. Here, we show that when inferring physical properties from line emissivities in systems like Perseus, the resonant scattering effect should be taken into account. In the Hitomi waveband, resonant scattering mostly affects the Fe XXV He alpha line (w)-the strongest line in the spectrum. The flux measured by Hitomi in this line is suppressed by a factor of similar to 1.3 in the inner similar to 30 kpc, compared to predictions for an optically thin plasma; the suppression decreases with the distance from the center. The w line also appears slightly broader than other lines from the same ion. The observed distortions of the w line flux, shape, and distance dependence are all consistent with the expected effect of the resonant scattering in the Perseus core. By measuring the ratio of fluxes in optically thick (w) and thin (Fe XXV forbidden, He beta, Ly alpha) lines, and comparing these ratios with predictions from Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations, the velocities of gas motions have been obtained. The results are consistent with the direct measurements of gas velocities from line broadening described elsewhere in this series, although the systematic and statistical uncertainties remain significant. Further improvements in the predictions of line emissivities in plasma models, and deeper observations with future X-ray missions offering similar or better capabilities to the Hitomi SXS, will enable resonant scattering measurements to provide powerful constraints on the amplitude and anisotropy of cluster gas motions.
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18.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Search for thermal X-ray features from the Crab nebula with the Hitomi soft X-ray spectrometer
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Crab nebula originated from a core-collapse supernova (SN) explosion observed in 1054 AD. When viewed as a supernova remnant (SNR), it has an anomalously low observed ejecta mass and kinetic energy for an Fe-core-collapse SN. Intensive searches have been made for a massive shell that solves this discrepancy, but none has been detected. An alternative idea is that SN 1054 is an electron-capture (EC) explosion with a lower explosion energy by an order of magnitude than Fe-core-collapse SNe. X-ray imaging searches were performed for the plasma emission from the shell in the Crab outskirts to set a stringent upper limit on the X-ray emitting mass. However, the extreme brightness of the source hampers access to its vicinity. We thus employed spectroscopic technique using the X-ray micro-calorimeter on board the Hitomi satellite. By exploiting its superb energy resolution, we set an upper limit for emission or absorption features from as yet undetected thermal plasma in the 2-12 keV range. We also re-evaluated the existing Chandra and XMM-Newton data. By assembling these results, a new upper limit was obtained for the X-ray plasma mass of less than or similar to 1 M-circle dot for a wide range of assumed shell radius, size, and plasma temperature values both in and out of collisional equilibrium. To compare with the observation, we further performed hydrodynamic simulations of the Crab SNR for two SN models (Fe-core versus EC) under two SN environments (uniform interstellar medium versus progenitor wind). We found that the observed mass limit can be compatible with both SN models if the SN environment has a low density of less than or similar to 0.03 cm(-3) (Fe core) or less than or similar to 0.1 cm(-3) (EC) for the uniform density, or a progenitor wind density somewhat less than that provided by amass loss rate of 10(-5) M-circle dot yr(-1) at 20 km s(-1) for the wind environment.
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19.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Solar abundance ratios of the iron-peak elements in the Perseus cluster
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 551:7681, s. 478-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The metal abundance of the hot plasma that permeates galaxy clusters represents the accumulation of heavy elements produced by billions of supernovae(1). Therefore, X-ray spectroscopy of the intracluster medium provides an opportunity to investigate the nature of supernova explosions integrated over cosmic time. In particular, the abundance of the iron-peak elements (chromium, manganese, iron and nickel) is key to understanding how the progenitors of typical type Ia supernovae evolve and explode(2-6). Recent X-ray studies of the intracluster medium found that the abundance ratios of these elements differ substantially from those seen in the Sun(7-11), suggesting differences between the nature of type Ia supernovae in the clusters and in the Milky Way. However, because the K-shell transition lines of chromium and manganese are weak and those of iron and nickel are very close in photon energy, highresolution spectroscopy is required for an accurate determination of the abundances of these elements. Here we report observations of the Perseus cluster, with statistically significant detections of the resonance emission from chromium, manganese and nickel. Our measurements, combined with the latest atomic models, reveal that these elements have near-solar abundance ratios with respect to iron, in contrast to previous claims. Comparison between our results and modern nucleosynthesis calculations(12-14) disfavours the hypothesis that type Ia supernova progenitors are exclusively white dwarfs with masses well below the Chandrasekhar limit (about 1.4 times the mass of the Sun). The observed abundance pattern of the iron-peak elements can be explained by taking into account a combination of near-and sub-Chandrasekhar-mass type Ia supernova systems, adding to the mounting evidence that both progenitor types make a substantial contribution to cosmic chemical enrichment(5,15,16).
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20.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Temperature structure in the Perseus cluster core observed with Hitomi
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The present paper explains the temperature structure of X-ray emitting plasma in the core of the Perseus cluster based on 1.8-20.0 keV data obtained with the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) on board the Hitomi Observatory. A series of four observations was carried out, with a total effective exposure time of 338 ks that covered a central region of similar to 7' in diameter. SXS was operated with an energy resolution of similar to 5 eV (full width at half maximum) at 5.9 keV. Not only fine structures of K-shell lines in He-like ions, but also transitions from higher principal quantum numbers were clearly resolved from Si through Fe. That enabled us to perform temperature diagnostics using the line ratios of Si, S, Ar, Ca, and Fe, and to provide the first direct measurement of the excitation temperature and ionization temperature in the Perseus cluster. The observed spectrum is roughly reproduced by a single-temperature thermal plasma model in collisional ionization equilibrium, but detailed line-ratio diagnostics reveal slight deviations from this approximation. In particular, the data exhibit an apparent trend of increasing ionization temperature with the atomic mass, as well as small differences between the ionization and excitation temperatures for Fe, the only element for which both temperatures could be measured. The best-fit two-temperature models suggest a combination of 3 and 5 keV gas, which is consistent with the idea that the observed small deviations from a single-temperature approximation are due to the effects of projecting the known radial temperature gradient in the cluster core along the line of sight. A comparison with the Chandra/ACIS and the XMM-Newton/RGS results, on the other hand, suggests that additional lower-temperature components are present in the intracluster medium (ICM), but not detectable with Hitomi/SXS giving its 1.8-20 keV energy band.
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21.
  • Ferreira, MA, et al. (författare)
  • Genome-wide association and transcriptome studies identify target genes and risk loci for breast cancer
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Nature communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 10:1, s. 1741-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 170 breast cancer susceptibility loci. Here we hypothesize that some risk-associated variants might act in non-breast tissues, specifically adipose tissue and immune cells from blood and spleen. Using expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) reported in these tissues, we identify 26 previously unreported, likely target genes of overall breast cancer risk variants, and 17 for estrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast cancer, several with a known immune function. We determine the directional effect of gene expression on disease risk measured based on single and multiple eQTL. In addition, using a gene-based test of association that considers eQTL from multiple tissues, we identify seven (and four) regions with variants associated with overall (and ER-negative) breast cancer risk, which were not reported in previous GWAS. Further investigation of the function of the implicated genes in breast and immune cells may provide insights into the etiology of breast cancer.
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22.
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23.
  • Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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24.
  • Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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25.
  • Kanai, M, et al. (författare)
  • 2023
  • swepub:Mat__t
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26.
  • Afshin, Ashkan, et al. (författare)
  • Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 393:10184, s. 1958-1972
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity.Methods: By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction) among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of diseasespecific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome.Findings: In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 10-12) deaths and 255 million (234-274) DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1-5] deaths and 70 million [34-118] DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2-4] deaths and 82 million [59-109] DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1-4] deaths and 65 million [41-92] DALYs) were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates.Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually.
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27.
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28.
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29.
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30.
  • Alexander, Stephen P. H., et al. (författare)
  • The Concise Guide to PHARMACOLOGY 2023/24: G protein-coupled receptors
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: BRITISH JOURNAL OF PHARMACOLOGY. - : British pharmacological society. - 0007-1188 .- 1476-5381. ; 180
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Concise Guide to PHARMACOLOGY 2023/24 is the sixth in this series of biennial publications. The Concise Guide provides concise overviews, mostly in tabular format, of the key properties of approximately 1800 drug targets, and about 6000 interactions with about 3900 ligands. There is an emphasis on selective pharmacology (where available), plus links to the open access knowledgebase source of drug targets and their ligands (), which provides more detailed views of target and ligand properties. Although the Concise Guide constitutes almost 500 pages, the material presented is substantially reduced compared to information and links presented on the website. It provides a permanent, citable, point-in-time record that will survive database updates. The full contents of this section can be found at . G protein-coupled receptors are one of the six major pharmacological targets into which the Guide is divided, with the others being: ion channels, nuclear hormone receptors, catalytic receptors, enzymes and transporters. These are presented with nomenclature guidance and summary information on the best available pharmacological tools, alongside key references and suggestions for further reading. The landscape format of the Concise Guide is designed to facilitate comparison of related targets from material contemporary to mid-2023, and supersedes data presented in the 2021/22, 2019/20, 2017/18, 2015/16 and 2013/14 Concise Guides and previous Guides to Receptors and Channels. It is produced in close conjunction with the Nomenclature and Standards Committee of the International Union of Basic and Clinical Pharmacology (NC-IUPHAR), therefore, providing official IUPHAR classification and nomenclature for human drug targets, where appropriate.
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31.
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32.
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33.
  • Arndt, D. S., et al. (författare)
  • STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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34.
  • Bartlett, Sofia R., et al. (författare)
  • Sequencing of Hepatitis C Virus for Detection of Resistance to Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy : A Systematic Review
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: HEPATOLOGY COMMUNICATIONS. - : JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD. - 2471-254X. ; 1:5, s. 379-390
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The significance of the clinical impact of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) in hepatitis C virus (HCV) on treatment failure is unclear. No standardized methods or guidelines for detection of DAA RASs in HCV exist. To facilitate further evaluations of the impact of DAA RASs in HCV, we conducted a systematic review of RAS sequencing protocols, compiled a comprehensive public library of sequencing primers, and provided expert guidance on the most appropriate methods to screen and identify RASs. The development of standardized RAS sequencing protocols is complicated due to a high genetic variability and the need for genotype- and subtype-specific protocols for multiple regions. We have identified several limitations of the available methods and have highlighted areas requiring further research and development. The development, validation, and sharing of standardized methods for all genotypes and subtypes should be a priority.
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35.
  • Bernatchez, Louis, et al. (författare)
  • Harnessing the Power of Genomics to Secure the Future of Seafood
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Trends in Ecology and Evolution. - : Elsevier BV. - 0169-5347. ; 32:9, s. 665-680
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Best use of scientific knowledge is required to maintain the fundamental role of seafood in human nutrition. While it is acknowledged that genomic-based methods allow the collection of powerful data, their value to inform fisheries management, aquaculture, and biosecurity applications remains underestimated. We review genomic applications of relevance to the sustainable management of seafood resources, illustrate the benefits of, and identify barriers to their integration. We conclude that the value of genomic information towards securing the future of seafood does not need to be further demonstrated. Instead, we need immediate efforts to remove structural roadblocks and focus on ways that support integration of genomic-informed methods into management and production practices. We propose solutions to pave the way forward. Advancements of genetic technologies now allow the collection of genome-wide data in nonmodel species in a cost-effective manner. These genomic-informed technologies allow addressing a comprehensive spectrum of needs and applications relevant to fisheries, aquaculture, and biosecurity. Genomics tools also improve our understanding of how aquatic organisms adapt and respond to the environment, and improve our ability to monitor environmental variation and exploited species. Genomic approaches are now rapidly replacing traditional genetic markers, but their application in fisheries and aquaculture management has stagnated when compared to agriculture where they have long been used for improved production. There is no reason to further delay the application of genomic tools in fisheries management and aquaculture production.
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36.
  • Calvert, Clara, et al. (författare)
  • Changes in preterm birth and stillbirth during COVID-19 lockdowns in 26 countries
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7:4, s. 529-544
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of infant mortality worldwide. Changes in PTB rates, ranging from -90% to +30%, were reported in many countries following early COVID-19 pandemic response measures ('lockdowns'). It is unclear whether this variation reflects real differences in lockdown impacts, or perhaps differences in stillbirth rates and/or study designs. Here we present interrupted time series and meta-analyses using harmonized data from 52 million births in 26 countries, 18 of which had representative population-based data, with overall PTB rates ranging from 6% to 12% and stillbirth ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 per 1,000 births. We show small reductions in PTB in the first (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98, P value <0.0001), second (0.96, 0.92-0.99, 0.03) and third (0.97, 0.94-1.00, 0.09) months of lockdown, but not in the fourth month of lockdown (0.99, 0.96-1.01, 0.34), although there were some between-country differences after the first month. For high-income countries in this study, we did not observe an association between lockdown and stillbirths in the second (1.00, 0.88-1.14, 0.98), third (0.99, 0.88-1.12, 0.89) and fourth (1.01, 0.87-1.18, 0.86) months of lockdown, although we have imprecise estimates due to stillbirths being a relatively rare event. We did, however, find evidence of increased risk of stillbirth in the first month of lockdown in high-income countries (1.14, 1.02-1.29, 0.02) and, in Brazil, we found evidence for an association between lockdown and stillbirth in the second (1.09, 1.03-1.15, 0.002), third (1.10, 1.03-1.17, 0.003) and fourth (1.12, 1.05-1.19, <0.001) months of lockdown. With an estimated 14.8 million PTB annually worldwide, the modest reductions observed during early pandemic lockdowns translate into large numbers of PTB averted globally and warrant further research into causal pathways.
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37.
  • Christopoulos, Arthur, et al. (författare)
  • THE CONCISE GUIDE TO PHARMACOLOGY 2021/22: G protein-coupled receptors.
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: British journal of pharmacology. - : Wiley. - 1476-5381 .- 0007-1188. ; 178 Suppl 1
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Concise Guide to PHARMACOLOGY 2021/22 is the fifth in this series of biennial publications. The Concise Guide provides concise overviews, mostly in tabular format, of the key properties of nearly 1900 human drug targets with an emphasis on selective pharmacology (where available), plus links to the open access knowledgebase source of drug targets and their ligands (www.guidetopharmacology.org), which provides more detailed views of target and ligand properties. Although the Concise Guide constitutes over 500 pages, the material presented is substantially reduced compared to information and links presented on the website. It provides a permanent, citable, point-in-time record that will survive database updates. The full contents of this section can be found at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/bph.15538. G protein-coupled receptors are one of the six major pharmacological targets into which the Guide is divided, with the others being: ion channels, nuclear hormone receptors, catalytic receptors, enzymes and transporters. These are presented with nomenclature guidance and summary information on the best available pharmacological tools, alongside key references and suggestions for further reading. The landscape format of the Concise Guide is designed to facilitate comparison of related targets from material contemporary to mid-2021, and supersedes data presented in the 2019/20, 2017/18, 2015/16 and 2013/14 Concise Guides and previous Guides to Receptors and Channels. It is produced in close conjunction with the Nomenclature and Standards Committee of the International Union of Basic and Clinical Pharmacology (NC-IUPHAR), therefore, providing official IUPHAR classification and nomenclature for human drug targets, where appropriate.
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38.
  • Ebrahimi-Fakhari, Darius, et al. (författare)
  • Defining the clinical, molecular and imaging spectrum of adaptor protein complex 4-associated hereditary spastic paraplegia
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Brain. - OXFORD ENGLAND : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0006-8950 .- 1460-2156. ; 143:10, s. 2929-2944
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Bi-allelic loss-of-function variants in genes that encode subunits of the adaptor protein complex 4 (AP-4) lead to prototypical yet poorly understood forms of childhood-onset and complex hereditary spastic paraplegia: SPG47 (AP4B1), SPG50 (AP4M1), SPG51 (AP4E1) and SPG52 (AP4S1). Here, we report a detailed cross-sectional analysis of clinical, imaging and molecular data of 156 patients from 101 families. Enrolled patients were of diverse ethnic backgrounds and covered a wide age range (1.0-49.3 years). While the mean age at symptom onset was 0.8 +/- 0.6 years [standard deviation (SD), range 0.2-5.0], the mean age at diagnosis was 10.2 +/- 8.5 years (SD, range 0.1-46.3). We define a set of core features: early-onset developmental delay with delayed motor milestones and significant speech delay (50% non-verbal); intellectual disability in the moderate to severe range; mild hypotonia in infancy followed by spastic diplegia (mean age: 8.4 +/- 5.1 years, SD) and later tetraplegia (mean age: 16.1 +/- 9.8 years, SD); postnatal microcephaly (83%); foot deformities (69%); and epilepsy (66%) that is intractable in a subset. At last follow-up, 36% ambulated with assistance (mean age: 8.9 +/- 6.4 years, SD) and 54% were wheelchair-dependent (mean age: 13.4 +/- 9.8 years, SD). Episodes of stereotypic laughing, possibly consistent with a pseudobulbar affect, were found in 56% of patients. Key features on neuroimaging include a thin corpus callosum (90%), ventriculomegaly (65%) often with colpocephaly, and periventricular white-matter signal abnormalities (68%). Iron deposition and polymicrogyria were found in a subset of patients. AP4B1-associated SPG47 and AP4M1-associated SPG50 accounted for the majority of cases. About two-thirds of patients were born to consanguineous parents, and 82% carried homozygous variants. Over 70 unique variants were present, the majority of which are frameshift or nonsense mutations. To track disease progression across the age spectrum, we defined the relationship between disease severity as measured by several rating scales and disease duration. We found that the presence of epilepsy, which manifested before the age of 3 years in the majority of patients, was associated with worse motor outcomes. Exploring genotype-phenotype correlations, we found that disease severity and major phenotypes were equally distributed among the four subtypes, establishing that SPG47, SPG50, SPG51 and SPG52 share a common phenotype, an 'AP-4 deficiency syndrome'. By delineating the core clinical, imaging, and molecular features of AP-4-associated hereditary spastic paraplegia across the age spectrum our results will facilitate early diagnosis, enable counselling and anticipatory guidance of affected families and help define endpoints for future interventional trials.
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39.
  • Echiburu-Trujillo, Constanza, et al. (författare)
  • Chasing the Break: Tracing the Full Evolution of a Black Hole X-Ray Binary Jet with Multiwavelength Spectral Modeling
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 962:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Black hole (BH) X-ray binaries (XRBs) are ideal targets to study the connection between accretion inflow and jet outflow. Here we present quasi-simultaneous, multiwavelength observations of the Galactic BH system MAXI J1820+070, throughout its 2018-2019 outburst. Our data set includes coverage from the radio through X-ray bands from 17 different instruments/telescopes, and encompasses 19 epochs over a 7 month period, resulting in one of the most well-sampled multiwavelength data sets of a BH XRB outburst to date. With our data, we compile and model the broadband spectra of this source using a phenomenological model that includes emission from the jet, a companion star, and an accretion flow. This modeling allows us to track the evolution of the spectral break in the jet spectrum, a key observable that samples the jet launching region. We find that the spectral break location changes over at least approximate to 3 orders of magnitude in electromagnetic frequency over this period. Using these spectral break measurements, we link the full cycle of jet behavior, including the rising, quenching, and reignition, to the changing accretion flow properties as the source evolves through its different accretion states. Our analysis shows consistent jet behavior with other sources in similar phases of their outbursts, reinforcing the idea that jet quenching and recovery may be a global feature of BH XRB systems in outburst. Our results also provide valuable evidence supporting a close connection between the geometry of the inner accretion flow and the base of the jet.
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40.
  • Feigin, Valery L, et al. (författare)
  • Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016.
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The New England journal of medicine. - 1533-4406 .- 0028-4793. ; 379:25, s. 2429-2437
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).
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41.
  • Feigin, Valery L., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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42.
  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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43.
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44.
  • Garshick, Eric, et al. (författare)
  • Respiratory Health after Military Service in Southwest Asia and Afghanistan An Official American Thoracic Society Workshop Report
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the American Thoracic Society online. - : American Thoracic Society. - 1546-3222 .- 1943-5665. ; 16:8, s. E1-E16
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Since 2001, more than 2.7 million U.S. military personnel have been deployed in support of operations in Southwest Asia and Afghanistan. Land-based personnel experienced elevated exposures to particulate matter and other inhalational exposures from multiple sources, including desert dust, burn pit combustion, and other industrial, mobile, or military sources. A workshop conducted at the 2018 American Thoracic Society International Conference had the goals of: 1) identifying key studies assessing postdeployment respiratory health, 2) describing emerging research, and 3) highlighting knowledge gaps. The workshop reviewed epidemiologic studies that demonstrated more frequent encounters for respiratory symptoms postdeployment compared with nondeployers and for airway disease, predominantly asthma, as well as case series describing postdeployment dyspnea, asthma, and a range of other respiratory tract findings. On the basis of particulate matter effects in other populations, it also is possible that deployers experienced reductions in pulmonary function as a result of such exposure. The workshop also gave particular attention to constrictive bronchiolitis, which has been reported in lung biopsies of selected deployers. Workshop participants had heterogeneous views regarding the definition and frequency of constrictive bronchiolitis and other small airway pathologic findings in deployed populations. The workshop concluded that the relationship of airway disease, including constrictive bronchiolitis, to exposures experienced during deployment remains to be better defined. Future clinical and epidemiologic research efforts should address better characterization of deployment exposures; carry out longitudinal assessment of potentially related adverse health conditions, including lung function and other physiologic changes; and use rigorous histologic, exposure, and clinical characterization of patients with respiratory tract abnormalities.
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45.
  • Griswold, Max G., et al. (författare)
  • Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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46.
  • Gupta, Kalpana, et al. (författare)
  • Executive Summary: International Clinical Practice Guidelines for the Treatment of Acute Uncomplicated Cystitis and Pyelonephritis in Women: A 2010 Update by the Infectious Diseases Society of America and the European Society for Microbiology and Infectious Diseases
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Clinical Infectious Diseases. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1537-6591 .- 1058-4838. ; 52:5, s. 561-564
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A Panel of International Experts was convened by the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) in collaboration with the European Society for Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) to update the 1999 Uncomplicated Urinary Tract Infection Guidelines by the IDSA. Co-sponsoring organizations include the American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, American Urological Association, Association of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases-Canada, and the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine. The focus of this work is treatment of women with acute uncomplicated cystitis and pyelonephritis, diagnoses limited in these guidelines to premenopausal, non-pregnant women with no known urological abnormalities or co-morbidities. The issues of in vitro resistance prevalence and the ecological adverse effects of antimicrobial therapy (collateral damage) were considered as important factors in making optimal treatment choices and thus are reflected in the rankings of recommendations.
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47.
  • Gupta, Kalpana, et al. (författare)
  • International Clinical Practice Guidelines for the Treatment of Acute Uncomplicated Cystitis and Pyelonephritis in Women: A 2010 Update by the Infectious Diseases Society of America and the European Society for Microbiology and Infectious Diseases
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Clinical Infectious Diseases. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1537-6591 .- 1058-4838. ; 52:5, s. 103-120
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A Panel of International Experts was convened by the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) in collaboration with the European Society for Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) to update the 1999 Uncomplicated Urinary Tract Infection Guidelines by the IDSA. Co-sponsoring organizations include the American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, American Urological Association, Association of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases-Canada, and the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine. The focus of this work is treatment of women with acute uncomplicated cystitis and pyelonephritis, diagnoses limited in these guidelines to premenopausal, non-pregnant women with no known urological abnormalities or co-morbidities. The issues of in vitro resistance prevalence and the ecological adverse effects of antimicrobial therapy (collateral damage) were considered as important factors in making optimal treatment choices and thus are reflected in the rankings of recommendations.
  •  
48.
  • KC, Ashish, 1982-, et al. (författare)
  • Changes in preterm birth and stillbirth during COVID-19 lockdowns in 26 countries.
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Nature human behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 7:4, s. 529-544
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of infant mortality worldwide. Changes in PTB rates, ranging from -90% to +30%, were reported in many countries following early COVID-19 pandemic response measures ('lockdowns'). It is unclear whether this variation reflects real differences in lockdown impacts, or perhaps differences in stillbirth rates and/or study designs. Here we present interrupted time series and meta-analyses using harmonized data from 52 million births in 26 countries, 18 of which had representative population-based data, with overall PTB rates ranging from 6% to 12% and stillbirth ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 per 1,000 births. We show small reductions in PTB in the first (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98, P value <0.0001), second (0.96, 0.92-0.99, 0.03) and third (0.97, 0.94-1.00, 0.09) months of lockdown, but not in the fourth month of lockdown (0.99, 0.96-1.01, 0.34), although there were some between-country differences after the first month. For high-income countries in this study, we did not observe an association between lockdown and stillbirths in the second (1.00, 0.88-1.14, 0.98), third (0.99, 0.88-1.12, 0.89) and fourth (1.01, 0.87-1.18, 0.86) months of lockdown, although we have imprecise estimates due to stillbirths being a relatively rare event. We did, however, find evidence of increased risk of stillbirth in the first month of lockdown in high-income countries (1.14, 1.02-1.29, 0.02) and, in Brazil, we found evidence for an association between lockdown and stillbirth in the second (1.09, 1.03-1.15, 0.002), third (1.10, 1.03-1.17, 0.003) and fourth (1.12, 1.05-1.19, <0.001) months of lockdown. With an estimated 14.8 million PTB annually worldwide, the modest reductions observed during early pandemic lockdowns translate into large numbers of PTB averted globally and warrant further research into causal pathways.
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49.
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50.
  • Kyu, Hmwe H, et al. (författare)
  • Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013 : Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study.
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: JAMA pediatrics. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6203 .- 2168-6211. ; 170:3, s. 267-287
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • IMPORTANCE: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce.OBJECTIVE: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study.EVIDENCE REVIEW: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates.FINDINGS: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810 304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.
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