| 1. |
- Fischer, Hubertus, et al.
(författare)
-
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 11:7, s. 474-485
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise.
|
|
| 2. |
- Schmittner, Andreas, et al.
(författare)
-
Calibration of the carbon isotope composition (δ13C) of benthic foraminifera
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Paleoceanography. - 0883-8305. ; 32:6, s. 512-530
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The carbon isotope composition (δ13C) of seawater provides valuable insight on ocean circulation, air-sea exchange, the biological pump, and the global carbon cycle and is reflected by the δ13C of foraminifera tests. Here more than 1700 δ13C observations of the benthic foraminifera genus Cibicides from late Holocene sediments (δ13CCibnat) are compiled and compared with newly updated estimates of the natural (preindustrial) water column δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon (δ13CDICnat) as part of the international Ocean Circulation and Carbon Cycling (OC3) project. Using selection criteria based on the spatial distance between samples, we find high correlation between δ13CCibnat and δ13CDICnat, confirming earlier work. Regression analyses indicate significant carbonate ion (-2.6 ± 0.4) × 10-3‰/(μmol kg-1) [CO3 2-] and pressure (-4.9 ± 1.7) × 10-3‰ m-1 (depth) effects, which we use to propose a new global calibration for predicting δ13CDICnat from δ13CCibnat. This calibration is shown to remove some systematic regional biases and decrease errors compared with the one-to-one relationship (δ13CDICnat = δ13CCibnat). However, these effects and the error reductions are relatively small, which suggests that most conclusions from previous studies using a one-to-one relationship remain robust. The remaining standard error of the regression is generally σ ≅ 0.25‰, with larger values found in the southeast Atlantic and Antarctic (σ ≅ 0.4‰) and for species other than Cibicides wuellerstorfi. Discussion of species effects and possible sources of the remaining errors may aid future attempts to improve the use of the benthic δ13C record.
|
|
| 3. |
|
|
| 4. |
- Glueder, Anna, et al.
(författare)
-
Calibrated relative sea levels constrain isostatic adjustment and ice history in northwest Greenland
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 293
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Relative Sea Levels (RSLs) derived primarily from marine bivalves near Petermann Glacier, NW Greenland, constrain past regional ice-mass changes through glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modeling. Oxygen isotopes measured on bivalves corrected for shell-depth habitat and document changing meltwater input. Rapid RSL fall of up to 62 m/kyr indicates ice loss at or prior to ∼9 ka. Transition to an RSL stillstand starting at ∼6 ka reflects renewed ice-mass loading followed by further mass loss over the past few millennia. GIA simulations of rapid early RSL fall suggest a low regional upper-mantle viscosity. Early loss of grounded ice tracks atmospheric warming and pre-dates the eventual collapse of Petermann Glacier's floating ice tongue near ∼7 ka, suggesting grounding zone stabilization during early phases of deglaciation. We hypothesize mid-Holocene regrowth of regional ice caps in response to cooling and increased precipitation, following loss of the floating shelf ice. Remnants of these ice caps remain present but are now melting.
|
|
| 5. |
- Reilly, Brendan T., et al.
(författare)
-
Holocene break-up and reestablishment of the Petermann Ice Tongue, Northwest Greenland
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 218, s. 322-342
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the last decade, two major calving events of the Petermann Ice Tongue in Northwest Greenland have led to speculation on its future stability and contribution to further Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss. However, it has been unclear if these events are anomalous or typical within the context of limited historical observations. We extend the historical record of the floating ice tongue using the stratigraphy of Petermann Fjord sediments to provide a longer-term perspective. Computed tomography (CT) scans, X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) scans, Ice-Rafted Debris (IRD) counts, and the magnetic properties of specific particle size fractions constrain changes in depositional processes and sediment sources at our core sites, allowing for reconstructions of past behavior of the Petermann Ice Tongue. Radiocarbon dating of foraminifera, Pb-210, and paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) provide age control and help to address uncertainties in radiocarbon reservoir ages. A floating ice tongue in Petermann Fjord formed in late glacial time as Petermann Glacier retreated from an advanced grounded position. This paleo-ice tongue broke-up during the early Holocene when high northern latitude summer insolation was higher than present. After gradual regrowth of the ice tongue associated with regional cooling, the ice tongue reached its historical extent only within the last millennium. Little or no ice tongue was present for nearly 5000 years during the middle Holocene, when decadal mean regional temperatures are estimated to be 0.8-2.9 degrees C higher than preindustrial (1750 CE) and seasonal sea-ice in the Lincoln Sea was reduced. This pre-historical behavior shows that recent anthropogenic warming may already be in the range of ice tongue instability and future projected warming increases the risk of ice tongue break-up by the mid-21st Century.
|
|
