| 1. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 2. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 3. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 4. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 5. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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| 6. |
- Costello, David M., et al.
(författare)
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Global patterns and controls of nutrient immobilization on decomposing cellulose in riverine ecosystems
- 2022
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 36:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Microbes play a critical role in plant litter decomposition and influence the fate of carbon in rivers and riparian zones. When decomposing low-nutrient plant litter, microbes acquire nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from the environment (i.e., nutrient immobilization), and this process is potentially sensitive to nutrient loading and changing climate. Nonetheless, environmental controls on immobilization are poorly understood because rates are also influenced by plant litter chemistry, which is coupled to the same environmental factors. Here we used a standardized, low-nutrient organic matter substrate (cotton strips) to quantify nutrient immobilization at 100 paired stream and riparian sites representing 11 biomes worldwide. Immobilization rates varied by three orders of magnitude, were greater in rivers than riparian zones, and were strongly correlated to decomposition rates. In rivers, P immobilization rates were controlled by surface water phosphate concentrations, but N immobilization rates were not related to inorganic N. The N:P of immobilized nutrients was tightly constrained to a molar ratio of 10:1 despite wide variation in surface water N:P. Immobilization rates were temperature-dependent in riparian zones but not related to temperature in rivers. However, in rivers nutrient supply ultimately controlled whether microbes could achieve the maximum expected decomposition rate at a given temperature. Collectively, we demonstrated that exogenous nutrient supply and immobilization are critical control points for decomposition of organic matter.
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| 7. |
- Reeves, Jessica M., et al.
(författare)
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Palaeoenvironmental change in tropical Australasia over the last 30,000 years - a synthesis by the OZ-INTIMATE group
- 2013
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 74, s. 97-114
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The tropics are the major source of heat and moisture for the Australasian region. Determining the tropics' response over time to changes in climate forcing mechanisms, such as summer insolation, and the effects of relative sea level on exposed continental shelves during the Last Glacial period, is an ongoing process of re-evaluation. We present a synthesis of climate proxy data from tropical Australasia spanning the last 30,000 years that incorporates deep sea core, coral, speleothem, pollen, charcoal and terrestrial sedimentary records. Today, seasonal variability is governed largely by the annual migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), influencing this region most strongly during the austral summer. However, the position of the ITCZ has varied through time. Towards the end of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, conditions were far wetter throughout the region, becoming drier first in the south. Universally cooler land and sea-surface temperature (SST) were characteristic of the Last Glacial Maximum, with drier conditions than previously, although episodic wet periods are noted in the fluvial records of northern Australia. The deglacial period saw warming first in the Coral Sea and then the Indonesian seas, with a pause in this trend around the time of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (c. 14.5 ka), coincident with the flooding of the Sunda Shelf. Wetter conditions occurred first in Indonesia around 17 ka and northern Australia after 14 ka. The early Holocene saw a peak in marine SST to the northwest and northeast of Australia. Modern vegetation was first established on Indonesia, then progressively south and eastward to NE Australia. Flores and the Atherton Tablelands show a dry period around 11.6 ka, steadily becoming wetter through the early Holocene. The mid-late Holocene was punctuated by millennial-scale variability, associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation; this is evident in the marine, coral, speleothem and pollen records of the region.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Tiegs, Scott D., et al.
(författare)
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Global patterns and drivers of ecosystem functioning in rivers and riparian zones
- 2019
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Ingår i: Science Advances. - Washington : American Association of Advancement in Science. - 2375-2548. ; 5:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- River ecosystems receive and process vast quantities of terrestrial organic carbon, the fate of which depends strongly on microbial activity. Variation in and controls of processing rates, however, are poorly characterized at the global scale. In response, we used a peer-sourced research network and a highly standardized carbon processing assay to conduct a global-scale field experiment in greater than 1000 river and riparian sites. We found that Earth's biomes have distinct carbon processing signatures. Slow processing is evident across latitudes, whereas rapid rates are restricted to lower latitudes. Both the mean rate and variability decline with latitude, suggesting temperature constraints toward the poles and greater roles for other environmental drivers (e.g., nutrient loading) toward the equator. These results and data set the stage for unprecedented "next-generation biomonitoring" by establishing baselines to help quantify environmental impacts to the functioning of ecosystems at a global scale.
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| 10. |
- Vogelsong, Melissa A., et al.
(författare)
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Influence of sex on survival, neurologic outcomes, and neurodiagnostic testing after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest
- 2021
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Ingår i: Resuscitation. - : Elsevier BV. - 0300-9572. ; 167, s. 66-75
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: Previous studies evaluating the relationship between sex and post-resuscitation care and outcomes following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) are conflicting. We investigated the association between sex and outcomes as well as neurodiagnostic testing in a prospective multicenter international registry of patients admitted to intensive care units following OHCA. Methods: OHCA survivors enrolled in the International Cardiac Arrest Registry (INTCAR) from 2012 to 2017 were included. We assessed the independent association between sex and survival to hospital discharge, good neurologic outcome (Cerebral Performance Category 1 or 2), neurodiagnostic testing, and withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy (WLST). Results: Of 2407 eligible patients, 809 (33.6%) were women. Baseline characteristics differed by sex, with less bystander CPR and initial shockable rhythms among women. Women were less likely to survive to hospital discharge, however significance abated following adjusted analysis (30.1% vs 42.7%, adjusted OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.67–1.08). Women were less likely to have good neurologic outcome at discharge (21.4% vs 34.0%, adjusted OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.57–0.96) and at six months post-arrest (16.7% vs 29.4%, adjusted OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.54–0.98) that persisted after adjustment. Neuroimaging (75.5% vs 74.3%, p = 0.54) and other neurophysiologic testing (78.8% vs 78.6%, p = 0.91) was similar across sex. Women were more likely to undergo WLST (55.6% vs 42.8%, adjusted OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.09–1.66). Conclusions: Women with cardiac arrest have lower odds of good neurologic outcomes and higher odds of WLST, despite comparable rates of neurodiagnostic testing and after controlling for baseline differences in clinical characteristics and cardiac arrest features.
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| 11. |
- Abdullahi, Asli M., et al.
(författare)
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The present and future status of heavy neutral leptons
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Physics G. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 0954-3899 .- 1361-6471. ; 50:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The existence of nonzero neutrino masses points to the likely existence of multiple Standard Model neutral fermions. When such states are heavy enough that they cannot be produced in oscillations, they are referred to as heavy neutral leptons (HNLs). In this white paper, we discuss the present experimental status of HNLs including colliders, beta decay, accelerators, as well as astrophysical and cosmological impacts. We discuss the importance of continuing to search for HNLs, and its potential impact on our understanding of key fundamental questions, and additionally we outline the future prospects for next-generation future experiments or upcoming accelerator run scenarios.
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| 12. |
- Bascom, Karen E., et al.
(författare)
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Derivation and validation of the CREST model for very early prediction of circulatory etiology death in patients without ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction after cardiac arrest
- 2018
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Ingår i: Circulation. - 0009-7322. ; 137:3, s. 273-282
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: No practical tool quantitates the risk of circulatory-etiology death (CED) immediately after successful cardiopulmonary resuscitation in patients without ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. We developed and validated a prediction model to rapidly determine that risk and facilitate triage to individualized treatment pathways. METHODS: With the use of INTCAR (International Cardiac Arrest Registry), an 87-question data set representing 44 centers in the United States and Europe, patients were classified as having had CED or a combined end point of neurological-etiology death or survival. Demographics and clinical factors were modeled in a derivation cohort, and backward stepwise logistic regression was used to identify factors independently associated with CED. We demonstrated model performance using area under the curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test in the derivation and validation cohorts, and assigned a simplified point-scoring system. RESULTS: Among 638 patients in the derivation cohort, 121 (18.9%) had CED. The final model included preexisting coronary artery disease (odds ratio [OR], 2.86; confidence interval [CI], 1.83-4.49; P≤0.001), nonshockable rhythm (OR, 1.75; CI, 1.10-2.77; P=0.017), initial ejection fraction<30% (OR, 2.11; CI, 1.32-3.37; P=0.002), shock at presentation (OR, 2.27; CI, 1.42-3.62; P<0.001), and ischemic time >25 minutes (OR, 1.42; CI, 0.90-2.23; P=0.13). The derivation model area under the curve was 0.73, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test P=0.47. Outcomes were similar in the 318-patient validation cohort (area under the curve 0.68, Hosmer-Lemeshow test P=0.41). When assigned a point for each associated factor in the derivation model, the average predicted versus observed probability of CED with a CREST score (coronary artery disease, initial heart rhythm, low ejection fraction, shock at the time of admission, and ischemic time >25 minutes) of 0 to 5 was: 7.1% versus 10.2%, 9.5% versus 11%, 22.5% versus 19.6%, 32.4% versus 29.6%, 38.5% versus 30%, and 55.7% versus 50%. CONCLUSIONS: The CREST model stratified patients immediately after resuscitation according to risk of a circulatory-etiology death. The tool may allow for estimation of circulatory risk and improve the triage of survivors of cardiac arrest without ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction at the point of care.
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| 13. |
- Bombarda, F., et al.
(författare)
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Runaway electron beam control
- 2019
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Ingår i: Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1361-6587 .- 0741-3335. ; 61:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 14. |
- Dankiewicz, Josef, et al.
(författare)
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Safety, Feasibility, and Outcomes of Induced Hypothermia Therapy Following In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest-Evaluation of a Large Prospective Registry
- 2014
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Ingår i: Critical Care Medicine. - 0090-3493 .- 1530-0293. ; 42:12, s. 2537-2545
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: Despite a lack of randomized trials, practice guidelines recommend that mild induced hypothermia be considered for comatose survivors of in-hospital cardiac arrest. This study describes the safety, feasibility, and outcomes of mild induced hypothermia treatment following in-hospital cardiac arrest. Design: Prospective, observational, registry-based study. Setting: Forty-six critical care facilities in eight countries in Europe and the United States reporting in the Hypothermia Network Registry and the International Cardiac Arrest Registry. Patients: A total of 663 patients with in-hospital cardiac arrest and treated with mild induced hypothermia were included between January 2004 and February 2012. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: A cerebral performance category of 1 or 2 was considered a good outcome. At hospital discharge 41% of patients had a good outcome. At median 6-month follow-up, 34% had a good outcome. Among in-hospital deaths, 52% were of cardiac causes and 44% of cerebral cause. A higher initial body temperature was associated with reduced odds of a good outcome (odds ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.68-0.92). Adverse events were common; bleeding requiring transfusion (odds ratio, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.31-1.00) and sepsis (odds ratio, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.30-0.91) were associated with reduced odds for a good outcome. Conclusions: In this registry study of an in-hospital cardiac arrest population treated with mild induced hypothermia, we found a 41% good outcome at hospital discharge and 34% at follow-up. Infectious complications occurred in 43% of cases, and 11% of patients required a transfusion for bleeding. The majority of deaths were of cardiac origin.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Eriksson, Joel, et al.
(författare)
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Limited Clinical Utility of a Genetic Risk Score for the Prediction of Fracture Risk in Elderly Subjects
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Bone and Mineral Research. - : Wiley. - 1523-4681 .- 0884-0431. ; 30:1, s. 184-194
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is important to identify the patients at highest risk of fractures. A recent large-scale meta-analysis identified 63 autosomal single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with bone mineral density (BMD), of which 16 were also associated with fracture risk. Based on these findings, two genetic risk scores (GRS63 and GRS16) were developed. Our aim was to determine the clinical usefulness of these GRSs for the prediction of BMD, BMD change, and fracture risk in elderly subjects. We studied two male (Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study [MrOS] US, MrOS Sweden) and one female (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF]) large prospective cohorts of older subjects, looking at BMD, BMD change, and radiographically and/or medically confirmed incident fractures (8067 subjects, 2185 incident nonvertebral or vertebral fractures). GRS63 was associated with BMD (3% of the variation explained) but not with BMD change. Both GRS63 and GRS16 were associated with fractures. After BMD adjustment, the effect sizes for these associations were substantially reduced. Similar results were found using an unweighted GRS63 and an unweighted GRS16 compared with those found using the corresponding weighted risk scores. Only minor improvements in C-statistics (AUC) for fractures were found when the GRSs were added to a base model (age, weight, and height), and no significant improvements in C-statistics were found when they were added to a model further adjusted for BMD. Net reclassification improvements with the addition of the GRSs to a base model were modest and substantially attenuated in BMD-adjusted models. GRS63 is associated with BMD, but not BMD change, suggesting that the genetic determinants of BMD differ from those of BMD change. When BMD is known, the clinical utility of the two GRSs for fracture prediction is limited in elderly subjects. (c) 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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| 17. |
- Harhash, Ahmed A., et al.
(författare)
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Incidence of cardiac interventions and associated cardiac arrest outcomes in patients with nonshockable initial rhythms and no ST elevation post resuscitation
- 2021
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Ingår i: Resuscitation. - : Elsevier. - 0300-9572 .- 1873-1570. ; 167, s. 188-197
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Out of Hospital Cardiac arrest (OHCA) survivors with ST elevation (STE) with or without shockable rhythms often benefit from coronary angiography (CAG) and, if indicated, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). However, the benefits of CAG and PCI in OHCA survivors with nonshockable rhythms (PEA/asystole) and no STE are debated.Methods: Using the International Cardiac Arrest Registry (INTCAR 2.0), representing 44 centers in the US and Europe, comatose OHCA survivors with known presenting rhythms and post resuscitation ECGs were identified. Survival to hospital discharge, neurological recovery on discharge, and impact of CAG with or without PCI on such outcome were assessed and compared with other groups (shockable rhythms with or without STE).Results: Total of 2113 OHCA survivors were identified and described as; nonshockable/no STE (Nsh-NST) (n = 940, 44.5%), shockable/no STE (Sh-NST) (n = 716, 33.9%), nonshockable/STE (Nsh-ST) (n = 110, 5.2%), and shockable/STE (Sh-ST) (n = 347, 16.4%). Of Nsh-NST, 13.7% (129) were previously healthy before CA and only 17.3% (161) underwent CAG; of those, 30.4% (52) underwent PCI. A total of 18.6% (174) Nsh-NST patients survived to hospital discharge, with 57.5% (100) of such survivors having good neurological recovery (cerebral performance category 1 or 2) on discharge. Coronary angiography was associated with improved odds for survival and neurological recovery among all groups, including those with NSh-NST.Conclusions: Nonshockable initial rhythms with no ST elevation post resuscitation was the most common presentation after OHCA. Although most of these patients did not undergo coronary angiography, among those who did, 1 in 4 patients had a culprit lesion and underwent revascularization. Invasive CAG should be at least considered for all OHCA survivors, including those with nonshockable rhythms and no ST elevation post resuscitation.
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| 18. |
- Harhash, Ahmed A., et al.
(författare)
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Risk Stratification Among Survivors of Cardiac Arrest Considered for Coronary Angiography
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 77:4, s. 360-371
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundThe American College of Cardiology Interventional Council published consensus-based recommendations to help identify resuscitated cardiac arrest patients with unfavorable clinical features in whom invasive procedures are unlikely to improve survival.ObjectivesThis study sought to identify how many unfavorable features are required before prognosis is significantly worsened and which features are most impactful in predicting prognosis.MethodsUsing the INTCAR (International Cardiac Arrest Registry), the impact of each proposed “unfavorable feature” on survival to hospital discharge was individually analyzed. Logistic regression was performed to assess the association of such unfavorable features with poor outcomes.ResultsSeven unfavorable features (of 10 total) were captured in 2,508 patients successfully resuscitated after cardiac arrest (ongoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation and noncardiac etiology were exclusion criteria in our registry). Chronic kidney disease was used in lieu of end-stage renal disease. In total, 39% survived to hospital discharge. The odds ratio (OR) of survival to hospital discharge for each unfavorable feature was as follows: age >85 years OR: 0.30 (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.61), time-to-ROSC >30 min OR: 0.30 (95% CI: 0.23 to 0.39), nonshockable rhythm OR: 0.39 (95% CI: 0.29 to 0.54), no bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation OR: 0.49 (95% CI: 0.38 to 0.64), lactate >7 mmol/l OR: 0.50 (95% CI: 0.40 to 0.63), unwitnessed arrest OR: 0.58 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.78), pH <7.2 OR: 0.78 (95% CI: 0.63 to 0.98), and chronic kidney disease OR: 0.96 (95% CI: 0.70 to 1.33). The presence of any 3 or more unfavorable features predicted <40% survival. Presence of the 3 strongest risk factors (age >85 years, time-to-ROSC >30 min, and non-ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation) together or ≥6 unfavorable features predicted a ≤10% chance of survival to discharge.ConclusionsPatients successfully resuscitated from cardiac arrest with 6 or more unfavorable features have a poor long-term prognosis. Delaying or even forgoing invasive procedures in such patients is reasonable.
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| 19. |
- Joffrin, E., et al.
(författare)
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Overview of the JET preparation for deuterium-tritium operation with the ITER like-wall
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 59:11
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the past several years, the JET scientific programme (Pamela et al 2007 Fusion Eng. Des. 82 590) has been engaged in a multi-campaign effort, including experiments in D, H and T, leading up to 2020 and the first experiments with 50%/50% D-T mixtures since 1997 and the first ever D-T plasmas with the ITER mix of plasma-facing component materials. For this purpose, a concerted physics and technology programme was launched with a view to prepare the D-T campaign (DTE2). This paper addresses the key elements developed by the JET programme directly contributing to the D-T preparation. This intense preparation includes the review of the physics basis for the D-T operational scenarios, including the fusion power predictions through first principle and integrated modelling, and the impact of isotopes in the operation and physics of D-T plasmas (thermal and particle transport, high confinement mode (H-mode) access, Be and W erosion, fuel recovery, etc). This effort also requires improving several aspects of plasma operation for DTE2, such as real time control schemes, heat load control, disruption avoidance and a mitigation system (including the installation of a new shattered pellet injector), novel ion cyclotron resonance heating schemes (such as the three-ions scheme), new diagnostics (neutron camera and spectrometer, active Alfven eigenmode antennas, neutral gauges, radiation hard imaging systems...) and the calibration of the JET neutron diagnostics at 14 MeV for accurate fusion power measurement. The active preparation of JET for the 2020 D-T campaign provides an incomparable source of information and a basis for the future D-T operation of ITER, and it is also foreseen that a large number of key physics issues will be addressed in support of burning plasmas.
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| 20. |
- Johnsson, Jesper, et al.
(författare)
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Functional outcomes associated with varying levels of targeted temperature management after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest — An INTCAR2 registry analysis
- 2020
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Ingår i: Resuscitation. - : Elsevier BV. - 0300-9572 .- 1873-1570. ; 146, s. 229-236
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Targeted temperature management (TTM) after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) has been recommended in international guidelines since 2005. The TTM-trial published in 2013 showed no difference in survival or neurological outcome for patients randomised to 33 °C or 36 °C, and many hospitals have changed practice. The optimal utilization of TTM is still debated. This study aimed to analyse if a difference in temperature goal was associated with outcome in an unselected international registry population. Methods: This is a retrospective observational study based on a prospective registry — the International Cardiac Arrest Registry 2. Patients were categorized as receiving TTM in the lower range at 32–34 °C (TTM-low) or at 35–37 °C (TTM-high). Primary outcome was good functional status defined as cerebral performance category (CPC) of 1–2 at hospital discharge and secondary outcome was adverse events related to TTM. A logistic regression model was created to evaluate the independent effect of temperature by correcting for clinical and demographic factors associated with outcome. Results: Of 1710 patients included, 1242 (72,6%) received TTM-low and 468 (27,4%) TTM-high. In patients receiving TTM-low, 31.3% survived with good outcome compared to 28.8% in the TTM-high group. There was no significant association between temperature and outcome (p = 0.352). In analyses adjusted for baseline differences the OR for a good outcome with TTM-low was 1.27, 95% CI (0.94–1.73). Haemodynamic instability leading to discontinuation of TTM was more common in TTM-low. Conclusions: No significant difference in functional outcome at hospital discharge was found in patients receiving lower- versus higher targeted temperature management.
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| 21. |
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| 22. |
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| 23. |
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| 24. |
- May, Teresa, et al.
(författare)
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Coronary Angiography and Intervention in Women Resuscitated From Sudden Cardiac Death
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Heart Association. - 2047-9980. ; 9:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Coronary artery disease is the primary etiology for sudden cardiac arrest in adults, but potential differences in the incidence and utility of invasive coronary testing between resuscitated men and women have not been extensively evaluated. Our aim was to characterize angiographic similarities and differences between men and women after cardiac arrest. Methods and Results Data from the International Cardiac Arrest Registry-Cardiology database included patients resuscitated from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest of presumed cardiac origin, admitted to 7 academic cardiology/resuscitation centers during 2006 to 2017. Demographics, clinical factors, and angiographic findings of subjects were evaluated in relationship to sex and multivariable logistic regression models created to predict both angiography and outcome. Among 966 subjects, including 277 (29%) women and 689 (71%) men, fewer women had prior coronary artery disease and more had prior congestive heart failure (P=0.05). Women were less likely to have ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (32% versus 39%, P=0.04). Among those with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarctions, identification and distribution of culprit arteries was similar between women and men, and there were no differences in treatment or outcome. In patients without ST-segment elevation post-arrest, women were overall less likely to undergo coronary angiography (51% versus 61%, P<0.02), have a culprit vessel identified (29% versus 45%, P=0.03), and had fewer culprits acutely occluded (17% versus 28%, P=0.03). Women were also less often re-vascularized (44% versus 52%, P<0.03). Conclusions Among cardiac arrest survivors, women are less likely to undergo angiography or percutaneous coronary intervention than men. Sex disparities for invasive therapies in post-cardiac arrest care need continued attention.
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| 25. |
- Murari, A., et al.
(författare)
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A control oriented strategy of disruption prediction to avoid the configuration collapse of tokamak reactors
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - 2041-1723 .- 2041-1723. ; 15:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The objective of thermonuclear fusion consists of producing electricity from the coalescence of light nuclei in high temperature plasmas. The most promising route to fusion envisages the confinement of such plasmas with magnetic fields, whose most studied configuration is the tokamak. Disruptions are catastrophic collapses affecting all tokamak devices and one of the main potential showstoppers on the route to a commercial reactor. In this work we report how, deploying innovative analysis methods on thousands of JET experiments covering the isotopic compositions from hydrogen to full tritium and including the major D-T campaign, the nature of the various forms of collapse is investigated in all phases of the discharges. An original approach to proximity detection has been developed, which allows determining both the probability of and the time interval remaining before an incoming disruption, with adaptive, from scratch, real time compatible techniques. The results indicate that physics based prediction and control tools can be developed, to deploy realistic strategies of disruption avoidance and prevention, meeting the requirements of the next generation of devices.
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| 26. |
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| 27. |
- Rydén, Nils, et al.
(författare)
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Analysis of surface waves from the light weight deflectometer
- 2009
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Ingår i: Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering. - : Elsevier BV. - 0267-7261. ; 29:7, s. 1134-1142
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The combination of high strain modulus from conventional light weight deflectometer (LWD) analysis and low strain modulus front LWD-induced seismic analysis would move the pavement community towards field characterization of non-linear soil stiffness for use in mechanistic-empirical pavement design. This paper explores the experimental and numerical analysis of surface seismic waves during conventional light weight deflectometer testing. Field experiments were conducted on clay, silt and gravel soils to characterize the nature of LWD-induced surface waves and to determine both low and high strain moduli. The usable high frequency limit was found to be 300 Hz for LWD-induced surface waves, enabling the low strain modulus Characterization of the top 0.3-0.5-m-thick soil layer. A numerical investigation revealed that modal interference is a significant contributor to near field effects, and that a distance of one wavelength between the LWD center and receiver array center is required to minimize these effects. The LWD-induced surface wave strain levels at a 1 m offset from the LWD were found to be on the order of 10(-2) to 10(-3)% compared to the 10(-3) to 10(-4)% strain levels associated with conventional small hammer-induced surface waves. The measured low and high strain modulus compares well with published modulus reduction functions. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 28. |
- Seder, David B., et al.
(författare)
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Neurologic Outcomes and Postresuscitation Care of Patients With Myoclonus Following Cardiac Arrest
- 2015
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Ingår i: Critical Care Medicine. - 0090-3493 .- 1530-0293. ; 43:5, s. 965-972
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: To evaluate the outcomes of cardiac arrest survivors with myoclonus receiving modern postresuscitation care. Design: Retrospective review of registry data. Setting: Cardiac arrest receiving centers in Europe and the United States from 2002 to 2012. Patients: Two thousand five hundred thirty-two cardiac arrest survivors 18 years or older enrolled in the International Cardiac Arrest Registry. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: Eighty-eight percent of patients underwent therapeutic hypothermia and 471 (18%) exhibited myoclonus. Patients with myoclonus had longer time to professional cardiopulmonary resuscitation (8.6 vs 7.0 min; p < 0.001) and total ischemic time (25.6 vs 22.3 min; p < 0.001) and less often presented with ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation, a witnessed arrest, or had bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Electroencephalography demonstrated myoclonus with epileptiform activity in 209 of 374 (55%), including status epilepticus in 102 of 374 (27%). Good outcome (Cerebral Performance Category 1-2) at hospital discharge was noted in 9% of patients with myoclonus, less frequently in myoclonus with epileptiform activity (2% vs 15%; p < 0.001). Patients with myoclonus with good outcome were younger (53.7 vs 62.7 yr; p < 0.001), had more ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (81% vs 46%; p < 0.001), shorter ischemic time (18.9 vs 26.4 min; p = 0.003), more witnessed arrests (91% vs 77%; p = 0.02), and fewer "do-not-resuscitate" orders (7% vs 78%; p < 0.001). Life support was withdrawn in 330 of 427 patients (78%) with myoclonus and poor outcome, due to neurological futility in 293 of 330 (89%), at 5 days (3-8 d) after resuscitation. With myoclonus and good outcome, median ICU length of stay was 8 days (5-11 d) and hospital length of stay was 14.5 days (9-22 d). Conclusions: Nine percent of cardiac arrest survivors with myoclonus after cardiac arrest had good functional outcomes, usually in patients without associated epileptiform activity and after prolonged hospitalization. Deaths occurred early and primarily after withdrawal of life support. It is uncertain whether prolonged care would yield a higher percentage of good outcomes, but myoclonus of itself should not be considered a sign of futility.
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| 29. |
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| 30. |
- Wersäll, Carl
(författare)
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Frequency Optimization of Vibratory Rollers and Plates for Compaction of Granular Soil
- 2016
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Vibratory rollers are commonly used for compaction of embankments and landfills. This task is time consuming and constitutes a significant part of most large construction and infrastructure projects. By improving the compaction efficiency, the construction industry would reduce costs and environmental impact.This research project studies the influence of the vibration frequency of the drum, which is normally a fixed roller property, and whether resonance can be utilized to improve the compaction efficiency. The influence of frequency on roller compaction has not before been studied but the concept of resonance compaction has previously been applied successfully in deep compaction of fills and natural deposits.In order to examine the influence of vibration frequency on the compaction of granular soil, small-scale compaction tests of sand were conducted under varying conditions with a vertically oscillating plate. Subsequently, full-scale tests were conducted using a vibratory soil compaction roller and a test bed of crushed gravel. The results showed that resonance can be utilized in soil compaction by vibratory rollers and plates and that the optimum compaction frequency from an energy perspective is at, or slightly above, the coupled compactor-soil resonant frequency. Since rollers operate far above resonance, the compaction frequency can be significantly reduced, resulting in a considerable reduction in fuel consumption, environmental impact and machine wear.The thesis also presents an iterative equivalent-linear method to calculate the frequency response of a vibrating foundation, such as a compacting plate or the drum of a roller. The method seems promising for predicting the resonant frequency of the roller-soil system and can be used to determine the optimum compaction frequency without site- and roller-specific measurements.
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| 31. |
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- 2018
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Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 58:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 32. |
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- 2018
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Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 58:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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