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2. |
- Bravo, L, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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3. |
- Tabiri, S, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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5. |
- Glasbey, JC, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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6. |
- Thomas, HS, et al.
(författare)
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- 2019
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swepub:Mat__t
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7. |
- Lind, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)
- 2021
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Ingår i: eLife. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.
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- Fullman, N., et al.
(författare)
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Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 391:10136, s. 2236-2271
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97.1 (95% UI 95.8-98.1) in Iceland, followed by 96.6 (94.9-97.9) in Norway and 96.1 (94.5-97.3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18.6 (13.1-24.4) in the Central African Republic, 19.0 (14.3-23.7) in Somalia, and 23.4 (20.2-26.8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91.5 (89.1-936) in Beijing to 48.0 (43.4-53.2) in Tibet (a 43.5-point difference), while India saw a 30.8-point disparity, from 64.8 (59.6-68.8) in Goa to 34.0 (30.3-38.1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4.8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20.9-point to 17.0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17.2-point to 20.4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view and subsequent provision of quality health care for all populations. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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15. |
- Burstein, R., et al.
(författare)
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Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 574:7778, s. 353-358
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2âto end preventable child deaths by 2030âwe need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000â2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. © 2019, The Author(s).
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16. |
- Cousin, E., et al.
(författare)
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Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-8587. ; 10:3, s. 177-192
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73.7% (68.3 to 77.4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0.50 (0.44 to 0.58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97.5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0.13 (0.12 to 0.14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0.60 (0.51 to 0.70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0.71 (0.60 to 0.86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r(2)=0.62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17.0% (-28.4 to -2.9) for all diabetes, and by 21.0% (-33.0 to -5.9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13.6% [-28.4 to 3.4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13.6% [-29.3 to 8.9]). Interpretation Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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19. |
- Taddei, C, et al.
(författare)
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Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 582:7810, s. 73-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.
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23. |
- Kinyoki, DK, et al.
(författare)
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Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-170X .- 1078-8956. ; 26:5, s. 750-759
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic.
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27. |
- Singh, B. P., et al.
(författare)
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Experimental access to Transition Distribution Amplitudes with the PANDA experiment at FAIR
- 2015
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal A. Hadrons and Nuclei. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6001 .- 1434-601X. ; 51:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Baryon-to-meson Transition Distribution Amplitudes (TDAs) encoding valuable new information on hadron structure appear as building blocks in the collinear factorized description for several types of hard exclusive reactions. In this paper, we address the possibility of accessing nucleon-to-pion (pi N) TDAs from (p) over barp -> e(+)e(-)pi(0) reaction with the future PANDA detector at the FAIR facility. At high center-of-mass energy and high invariant mass squared of the lepton pair q(2), the amplitude of the signal channel (p) over barp -> e(+)e(-)pi(0) admits a QCD factorized description in terms of pi N TDAs and nucleon Distribution Amplitudes (DAs) in the forward aid backward kinematic regimes. Assuming the validity of this factorized description, we perform feasibility studies for measuring (p) over barp -> e(+)e(-)pi(0) with the PANDA detector. Detailed simulations on signal reconstruction efficiency as well as on rejection of the most severe background channel, i.e. (p) over barp -> pi(+)pi(-)pi(0) were performed for the center-of-mass energy squared s = 5 GeV2 and s = 10 GeV2, in the kinematic regions 3.0 < q(2) < 4.3 GeV2 and 5 < q(2) < 9 GeV2, respectively, with a neutral pion scattered in the forward or backward cone vertical bar cos theta(pi 0)vertical bar > 0.5 in the proton-antiproton center-of-mass frame. Results of the simulation show that the particle identification capabilities of the PANDA detector will allow to achieve a background rejection factor of 5 . 10(7) (1 . 10(7)) at low (high) q(2) for s = 5 GeV2, and of 1 . 10(8) (6 . 10(6)) at low (high) q(2) for s = 10 GeV2, while keeping the signal reconstruction efficiency at around 40%. At both energies, a clean lepton signal can be reconstructed with the expected statistics corresponding to 2 of integrated luminosity. The cross sections obtained from the simulations are used to show that a test of QCD collinear factorization can be done at the lowest order by measuring scaling laws and angular distributions. The future measurement of the signal channel cross section with PANDA will provide a new test of the perturbative QCD description of a novel class of hard exclusive reactions and will open the possibility of experimentally accessing pi N TDAs.
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30. |
- James, SL, et al.
(författare)
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Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2020
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Ingår i: Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention. - : BMJ. - 1475-5785. ; 26:SUPP_1Supp 1, s. 96-114
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.MethodsWe reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).FindingsIn 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).InterpretationInjuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.
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31. |
- Singh, B., et al.
(författare)
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Study of doubly strange systems using stored antiprotons
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nuclear Physics A. - : Elsevier. - 0375-9474 .- 1873-1554. ; 954, s. 323-340
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Bound nuclear systems with two units of strangeness are still poorly known despite their importance for many strong interaction phenomena. Stored antiprotons beams in the GeV range represent an unparalleled factory for various hyperon-antihyperon pairs. Their outstanding large production probability in antiproton collisions will open the floodgates for a series of new studies of systems which contain two or even more units of strangeness at the PANDA experiment at FAIR. For the first time, high resolution gamma-spectroscopy of doubly strange Lambda Lambda-hypernuclei will be performed, thus complementing measurements of ground state decays of Lambda Lambda-hypernuclei at J-PARC or possible decays of particle unstable hypernuclei in heavy ion reactions. High resolution spectroscopy of multistrange Xi(-) -atoms will be feasible and even the production of Omega(-) -atoms will be within reach. The latter might open the door to the vertical bar S vertical bar = 3 world in strangeness nuclear physics, by the study of the hadronic Omega(-) -nucleus interaction. For the first time it will be possible to study the behavior of Xi(+) in nuclear systems under well controlled conditions.
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32. |
- Collaboration, The PANDA, et al.
(författare)
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Feasibility studies of time-like proton electromagnetic form factors at PANDA at FAIR
- 2016
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal A. - : Springer Publishing Company. - 1434-6001 .- 1434-601X. ; 52:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Simulation results for future measurements of electromagnetic proton form factors at P ¯ ANDA (FAIR) within the PandaRoot software framework are reported. The statistical precision with which the proton form factors can be determined is estimated. The signal channel p¯ p→ e+e- is studied on the basis of two different but consistent procedures. The suppression of the main background channel, i.e.p¯ p→ π+π-, is studied. Furthermore, the background versus signal efficiency, statistical and systematical uncertainties on the extracted proton form factors are evaluated using two different procedures. The results are consistent with those of a previous simulation study using an older, simplified framework. However, a slightly better precision is achieved in the PandaRoot study in a large range of momentum transfer, assuming the nominal beam conditions and detector performance.
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33. |
- James, SL, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study
- 2020
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Ingår i: Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention. - : BMJ. - 1475-5785. ; 26:SUPP_1Supp 1, s. 125-153
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.MethodsIn this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.ResultsGBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.ConclusionsGBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.
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34. |
- Singh, B., et al.
(författare)
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Feasibility study for the measurement of pi N transition distribution amplitudes at (P)over-barANDA in (P)over-barp -> J/psi pi(0)
- 2017
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - : AMER PHYSICAL SOC. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 95:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The exclusive charmonium production process in (P) over barp annihilation with an associated pi 0 meson (p) over barp -> J/psi pi(0) is studied in the framework of QCD collinear factorization. The feasibility of measuring this reaction through the J/psi -> e(+) e(-) decay channel with the AntiProton ANnihilation at DArmstadt ((P) over bar ANDA) experiment is investigated. Simulations on signal reconstruction efficiency as well as the background rejection from various sources including the (P) over barp -> pi(+)pi(-)pi(0) and (p) over barp -> J/psi pi(0)pi(0) reactions are performed with PANDAROOT, the simulation and analysis software framework of the (P) over bar ANDA experiment. It is shown that the measurement can be done at (P) over bar ANDA with significant constraining power under the assumption of an integrated luminosity attainable in four to five months of data taking at the maximum design luminosity.
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37. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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38. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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39. |
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40. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
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First measurement of e(+)e(-) -> pK(S)(0)(n)over-barK(-) + c.c. above open charm threshold
- 2018
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 98:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The process e(+)e(-) -> pK(S)(0)(n) over barK(-) + c.c. and its intermediate processes are studied for the first time, using data samples collected with the BESIII detector at BEPCII at center-of-mass energies of 3.773, 4.008, 4.226, 4.258, 4.358, 4.416, and 4.600 GeV, with a total integrated luminosity of 7.4 fb(-1). The Born cross section of e(+)e(-) -> pK(S)(0)(n) over barK(-) + c.c. is measured at each center-of-mass energy, but no significant resonant structure in the measured cross-section line shape between 3.773 and 4.600 GeV is observed. No evident structure is detected in the pK(-), nK(S)(0), pK(S)(0), nK(+), p (n) over bar, or (KSK-)-K-0 invariant mass distributions except for Lambda(1520). The Born cross sections of e(+)e(-) -> Lambda(1520)(n) over barK(S)(0) + c.c. and e(+)e(-) -> Lambda(1520)(p) over barK(+) + c.c. are measured, and the 90% confidence level upper limits on the Born cross sections of e(+)e(-) -> Lambda(1520)(Lambda) over bar (1520) are determined at the seven center-of-mass energies. There is an evident difference in line shape and magnitude of the measured cross sections between e(+)e(-) -> Lambda(1520)(-> pK(-))(n) over barK(S)(0) and e(+)e(-) -> pK-(Lambda) over bar (1520)(-> (n) over barK(S)(0)).
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41. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
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Search for invisible decays of omega and phi with J/psi data at BESIII
- 2018
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - : American Physical Society. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 98:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using a data sample of (1310.6 +/- 7.0) x 10(6) J/psi events collected with the BESIII detector operating at the BEPCII collider, we perform the first experimental search for invisible decays of a light vector meson (V = omega, phi) via J/psi -> V-eta decays. The decay of eta -> pi(+)pi(-)pi(0) is utilized to tag the V meson decaying into the invisible final state. No evidence for a significant invisible signal is observed, and the upper limits on the ratio of branching fractions at the 90% confidence level are determined to be B(omega -> invisible)/B(omega -> pi(+)pi(-)pi(0)) < 8.1 x 10(-5) and B(phi -> invisible)/B(phi -> K+K-) < 3.4 x 10(-4). By using the world average values of B(omega -> pi(+)pi(-)pi(0) and B(phi -> K+K-,) the upper limits on the decay branching fractions at the 90% confidence level are set as B(omega -> invisible) < 7.3 x 10(-5) and B(phi -> invisible) < 1.7 x 10(-4), respectively.
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42. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
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Search for the rare decays D -> h(h((')))e(+) e(-)
- 2018
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - : AMER PHYSICAL SOC. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 97:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We search for rare decays of D mesons to hadrons accompanied by an electron-positron pair (h(h((')))e(+)e(- )),using an e(+)e(-) collision sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.93 fb(-1) collected with the BESIII detector at root s = 3.773 GeV. No significant signals are observed, and the corresponding upper limits on the branching fractions at the 90% confidence level are determined. The sensitivities of the results are at the level of 10(-5)-10(-6), providing a large improvement over previous searches.
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43. |
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44. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
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Evidence for e+e−→γηc(1S) at center-of-mass energies between 4.01 and 4.60 GeV
- 2017
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 96:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present first evidence for the process e(+)e(-) -> gamma eta(c)(1S) at six center-of-mass energies between 4.01 and 4.60 GeV using data collected by the BESIII experiment operating at BEPCII. We measure the Born cross section at each energy using a combination of twelve eta(c)(1S) decay channels. We also combine all six energies under various assumptions for the energy-dependence of the cross section. If the process is assumed to proceed via the Y(4260), we measure a peak Born cross section sigma(peak)(e(+)e(-) -> gamma eta(c)(1S)) = 2.11 +/- 0.49 (stat.) +/- 0.36 (syst.) pb with a statistical significance of 4.2 sigma.
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45. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
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Measurement of branching fractions for psi(3686) -> gamma eta ', gamma eta, and gamma pi(0)
- 2017
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - : AMER PHYSICAL SOC. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 96:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using a data sample of 448 x 10(6) psi(3686) events collected with the BESIII detector operating at the BEPCII storage ring, the decays psi(3686) -> gamma eta and psi(3686) -> gamma pi(0) are observed with a statistical significance of 7.3 sigma and 6.7 sigma, respectively. The branching fractions are measured to be B(psi(3686) -> gamma eta) = (0.85 +/- 0.18 +/- 0.05) x 10(-6) and B(psi(3686) ->gamma pi(0)) = (0.95 +/- 0.16 +/- 0.05) x 10(-6). In addition, we measure the branching fraction of psi(3686) -> gamma eta' to be B(psi(3686) -> gamma eta') = (125.1 +/- 2.2 +/- 6.2)x10(-6), which represents an improvement of precision over previous results.
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46. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
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Measurement of e(+)e(-) -> K(K)over-barJ/psi cross sections at center-of-mass energies from 4.189 to 4.600 GeV
- 2018
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - : AMER PHYSICAL SOC. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 97:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigate the process e(+)e(-) -> K (K) over barJ/psi at center-of-mass energies from 4.189 to 4.600 GeV using 4.7 fb(-1) of data collected by the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider. The Born cross sections for the reactions e(+)e(-) -> K(+)K(-)J/psi and K(S)(0)K(S)(0)J/psi are measured as a function of center-of-mass energy. The energy dependence of the cross section for e(+)e(-) -> K(+)K(-)J/psi is shown to differ from that for pi(+)pi(-)J/psi in the region around the Y(4260). In addition, there is evidence for a structure around 4.5 GeV in the e(+)e(-) -> K(+)K(-)J/psi cross section that is not present in pi(+)pi(-)J/psi.
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47. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
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Measurement of the integrated Luminosities of cross-section scan data samples around the psi(3770) mass region
- 2018
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Ingår i: Chinese Physics C. - : SCIENCE PRESS. - 1674-1137 .- 2058-6132. ; 42:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To investigate the nature of the psi(3770) resonance and to measure the cross section for e(+)e(-) -> D (D) over bar, a cross-section scan data sample, distributed among 41 center-of-mass energy points from 3.73 to 3.89 GeV, was taken with the BESIII detector operated at the BEPCII collider in the year 2010. By analyzing the large angle Bhabha scattering events, we measure the integrated luminosity of the data sample at each center-of-mass energy point. The total integrated luminosity of the data sample is 76.16 +/- 0.04 +/- 0.61 pb(-1), where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic.
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48. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
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Observation of psi(3686) -> eta ' e(+)e(-)
- 2018
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Ingår i: Physics Letters B. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 0370-2693 .- 1873-2445. ; 783, s. 452-458
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using a data sample of 448.1 x 10(6) psi(3686) events collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider, we report the first observation of the electromagnetic Dalitz decay psi(3686) -> eta'e(+)e(-), with significances of 7.0 sigma and 6.3 sigma when reconstructing the eta' meson via its decay modes eta' -> gamma pi(+)pi(-) and eta' -> pi(+)pi(-) eta (eta -> gamma gamma), respectively. The weighted average branching fraction is determined to be B(psi(3686) -> eta'e(+)e(-)) = (1.90 +/- 0.25 +/- 0.11) x 10(-6), where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic.
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49. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
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Observation of the Semileptonic Decay D-0 -> a(0)(980)(-)e(+)nu(e) and Evidence for D+ -> a(0)(980)(0)e(+)nu(e)
- 2018
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - : AMER PHYSICAL SOC. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 121:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using an e(+)e(-) collision data sample of 2.93 fb(-1) collected at a center-of-mass energy of 3.773 GeV by the BESIII detector at BEPCII, we report the observation of D-0 -> a(0)(980)(-)e(+)nu(e) and evidence for D+ -> a(0)(980)(0)e(+)nu(e) with significances of 6.4 sigma and 2.9 sigma, respectively. The absolute branching fractions are determined to be B(D-0 -> a(0)(980)(-)e(+)nu(e)) x B(a(0)(980)(-) -> eta pi(-)) = [1.33(-0.29)(+0.33)(stat) +/- 0.09(syst)] x 10(-4) and B(D+ -> a(0)(980)(0)e(+)nu(e)) x B(a(0)(980)(0) -> eta pi(0)) = [1.66(-0.66)(+0.81)(stat) +/- 0.11(syst) x 10(-4). This is the first time the a(0)(980) meson has been measured in a D-0 semileptonic decay, which would open one more interesting page in the investigation of the nature of the puzzling a(0)(980) states.
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50. |
- Barucca, G., et al.
(författare)
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The potential of Λ and Ξ- studies with PANDA at FAIR
- 2021
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal A. - : Springer Nature. - 1434-6001 .- 1434-601X. ; 57:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The antiproton experiment PANDA at FAIR is designed to bring hadron physics to a new level in terms of scope, precision and accuracy. In this work, its unique capability for studies of hyperons is outlined. We discuss ground-state hyperons as diagnostic tools to study non-perturbative aspects of the strong interaction, and fundamental symmetries. New simulation studies have been carried out for two benchmark hyperon-antihyperon production channels: p¯ p→ Λ¯ Λ and p¯ p→ Ξ¯ +Ξ-. The results, presented in detail in this paper, show that hyperon-antihyperon pairs from these reactions can be exclusively reconstructed with high efficiency and very low background contamination. In addition, the polarisation and spin correlations have been studied, exploiting the weak, self-analysing decay of hyperons and antihyperons. Two independent approaches to the finite efficiency have been applied and evaluated: one standard multidimensional efficiency correction approach, and one efficiency independent approach. The applicability of the latter was thoroughly evaluated for all channels, beam momenta and observables. The standard method yields good results in all cases, and shows that spin observables can be studied with high precision and accuracy already in the first phase of data taking with PANDA.
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