| 1. |
- Lippe, Melvin, et al.
(författare)
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Using agent-based modelling to simulate social-ecological systems across scales
- 2019
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Ingår i: Geoinformatica. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1384-6175 .- 1573-7624. ; 23:2, s. 269-298
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Agent-based modelling (ABM) simulates Social-Ecological-Systems (SESs) based on the decision-making and actions of individual actors or actor groups, their interactions with each other, and with ecosystems. Many ABM studies have focused at the scale of villages, rural landscapes, towns or cities. When considering a geographical, spatially-explicit domain, current ABM architecture is generally not easily translatable to a regional or global context, nor does it acknowledge SESs interactions across scales sufficiently; the model extent is usually determined by pragmatic considerations, which may well cut across dynamical boundaries. With a few exceptions, the internal structure of governments is not included when representing them as agents. This is partly due to the lack of theory about how to represent such as actors, and because they are not static over the time-scales typical for social changes to have significant effects. Moreover, the relevant scale of analysis is often not known a priori, being dynamically determined, and may itself vary with time and circumstances. There is a need for ABM to cross the gap between micro-scale actors and larger-scale environmental, infrastructural and political systems in a way that allows realistic spatial and temporal phenomena to emerge; this is vital for models to be useful for policy analysis in an era when global crises can be triggered by small numbers of micro-level actors. We aim with this thought-piece to suggest conceptual avenues for implementing ABM to simulate SESs across scales, and for using big data from social surveys, remote sensing or other sources for this purpose.
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| 2. |
- Natalini, Davide, et al.
(författare)
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Encouraging Sustainable Transport Choices in American Households: Results from an Empirically Grounded Agent-Based Model
- 2014
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 6:1, s. 50-69
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The transport sector needs to go through an extended process of decarbonisation to counter the threat of climate change. Unfortunately, the International Energy Agency forecasts an enormous growth in the number of cars and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Two issues can thus be identified: (1) the need for a new methodology that could evaluate the policy performances ex-ante and (2) the need for more effective policies. To help address these issues, we developed an Agent-Based Model called Mobility USA aimed at: (1) testing whether this could be an effective approach in analysing ex-ante policy implementation in the transport sector; and (2) evaluating the effects of alternative policy scenarios on commuting behaviours in the USA. Particularly, we tested the effects of two sets of policies, namely market-based and preference-change ones. The model results suggest that this type of agent-based approach will provide a useful tool for testing policy interventions and their effectiveness.
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| 3. |
- Natalini, Davide, et al.
(författare)
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Fuel riots: definition, evidence and policy implications for a new type of energy-related conflict
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 147
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- ‘Fuel riots’ are a distinct type of energy-related conflict. We provide the first fuel riots database and explore their social, economic and environmental drivers. The analysis demonstrates links between fuel riots and high international crude oil prices in countries characterised by weak state capacity, deficient governance, fuel scarcity and poor economic performance. We suggest a potential causal pathway for fuel riots: when international fuel prices spike, net fuel-importing countries bear higher costs. If these countries are politically unstable and their government inefficient, the likelihood of fuel riots is high. Wealthier countries can absorb price increases and maintain subsidies, as opposed to poorer societies where fuel riots are more likely. Our findings demonstrate the role of state capacity and socio-economic conditions in enabling conflict, and will inform policy by identifying fertile ground for fuel riots, i.e. societies likely to be affected by increases in fuel prices due to scarcity and climate action (such as carbon taxes). We propose that policies which better control international prices and action designed to reduce political instability in vulnerable countries are key to preventing fuel riots. Fuel subsidy reform must anticipate popular opposition and mitigate the impact upon vulnerable populations in order to reduce the likelihood of instability and minimise hardship.
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| 4. |
- Natalini, Davide, et al.
(författare)
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Global food security and food riots : an agent-based modelling approach
- 2019
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Ingår i: Food Security. - : Springer. - 1876-4517 .- 1876-4525. ; 11:5, s. 1153-1173
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Due to negative consequences of climate change for agriculture and food production shocks affecting different areas of the world, the past two decades saw the conditions of global food security increasingly worsen. This has resulted in negative consequences for the world economy, partly causing international food price spikes and social upheavals. In this paper we present statistical findings along with a preliminary version of an original agent-based model called the Dawe Global Security Model that simulates the global food market and the political fragility of countries. The model simulates the effects of food insecurity on international food prices and how these, coupled with national political fragility and international food trade can, in turn, increase the probability of food riots in countries. The agents in the model are the 213 countries of the world whose characteristics reflect empirical data and the international trade of food is also simulated based on real trade partnerships and data. The model has been informed, calibrated and validated using real data and the results of these procedures are presented in the paper. To further test the model we also present the model’s forecasts for the near future in terms of food prices and incidence of food riots. The Dawe Global Security Model can be used to test scenarios on the evolution of shocks to global food production and analyse consequences for food riots. Further developments of the model can include national responses to food crises to investigate how countries can influence the spread of global food crises.
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| 5. |
- Natalini, Davide, et al.
(författare)
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Quantitative Assessment of Political Fragility Indices and Food Prices as Indicators of Food Riots in Countries
- 2015
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 7:4, s. 4360-4385
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The impact of resources on social unrest is of increasing interest to politicalleaders, business and civil society. Recent events have highlighted that (lack of) access tocritical resources, including food, energy and water, can, in certain circumstances, lead toviolent demonstrations. In this paper, we assess a number of political fragility indices tosee whether they are good indicators of propensity to food riots. We found that the mostaccurate is the Political Instability and Absence of Violence Indicator of the WorldwideGovernance Indicators by the World Bank. We compute a likelihood of experiencing afood riot for each quartile of this index. We found that the self-sufficiency of food does notseem to affect the likelihood of the occurrence of food riots, but that the level of politicalstability of a country does have a role. In addition, we identify a monthly and annualthreshold for the Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Price Index, above which foodriots in fragile states are more likely to occur.
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