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- De Jong, VMT, et al.
(författare)
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Clinical prediction models for mortality in patients with covid-19: external validation and individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2022
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Ingår i: BMJ (Clinical research ed.). - : BMJ. - 1756-1833. ; 378, s. e069881-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- ObjectiveTo externally validate various prognostic models and scoring rules for predicting short term mortality in patients admitted to hospital for covid-19.DesignTwo stage individual participant data meta-analysis.SettingSecondary and tertiary care.Participants46 914 patients across 18 countries, admitted to a hospital with polymerase chain reaction confirmed covid-19 from November 2019 to April 2021.Data sourcesMultiple (clustered) cohorts in Brazil, Belgium, China, Czech Republic, Egypt, France, Iran, Israel, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States previously identified by a living systematic review of covid-19 prediction models published inThe BMJ, and through PROSPERO, reference checking, and expert knowledge.Model selection and eligibility criteriaPrognostic models identified by the living systematic review and through contacting experts. A priori models were excluded that had a high risk of bias in the participant domain of PROBAST (prediction model study risk of bias assessment tool) or for which the applicability was deemed poor.MethodsEight prognostic models with diverse predictors were identified and validated. A two stage individual participant data meta-analysis was performed of the estimated model concordance (C) statistic, calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large, and observed to expected ratio (O:E) across the included clusters.Main outcome measures30 day mortality or in-hospital mortality.ResultsDatasets included 27 clusters from 18 different countries and contained data on 46 914patients. The pooled estimates ranged from 0.67 to 0.80 (C statistic), 0.22 to 1.22 (calibration slope), and 0.18 to 2.59 (O:E ratio) and were prone to substantial between study heterogeneity. The 4C Mortality Score by Knight et al (pooled C statistic 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84, 95% prediction interval 0.72 to 0.86) and clinical model by Wang et al (0.77, 0.73 to 0.80, 0.63 to 0.87) had the highest discriminative ability. On average, 29% fewer deaths were observed than predicted by the 4C Mortality Score (pooled O:E 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.45 to 1.11, 95% prediction interval 0.21 to 2.39), 35% fewer than predicted by the Wang clinical model (0.65, 0.52 to 0.82, 0.23 to 1.89), and 4% fewer than predicted by Xie et al’s model (0.96, 0.59 to 1.55, 0.21 to 4.28).ConclusionThe prognostic value of the included models varied greatly between the data sources. Although the Knight 4C Mortality Score and Wang clinical model appeared most promising, recalibration (intercept and slope updates) is needed before implementation in routine care.
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- Gustafson, Per, et al.
(författare)
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Tuberculosis in Bissau: incidence and risk factors in an urban community in sub-Saharan Africa
- 2004
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Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - Oxford : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1464-3685 .- 0300-5771. ; 33:1, s. 163-172
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Despite the long history of tuberculosis (TB) research, population-based studies from developing countries are rare. Methods In a prospective community study in Bissau, the capital of Guinea-Bissau, we assessed the impact of demographic, socioeconomic and cultural risk factors on active TB. A surveillance system in four districts of the capital identified 247 adult (greater than or equal to15 years) cases of intrathoracic TB between May 1996 and June 1998. Risk factors were evaluated comparing cases with the 25 189 adults living in the area in May 1997. Results The incidence of intrathoracic TB in the adult population was 471 per 100 000 person-years. Significant risk factors in a multivariate analysis were increasing age (P < 0.0001), male sex (odds ratio [OR] = 2.58, 95% CI: 1.85, 3.60), ethnic group other than the largest group (Pepel) (OR = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.20, 2.22), adult crowding (OR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.18, 2.39 for >2 adults in household), and poor quality of housing (OR = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.22). Household type was important; adults living alone or with adults of their own sex only, had a higher risk of developing TB than households with husband and wife present, the adjusted OR being 1.76 (95% CI: 1.11, 2.78) for male households and 3.80 (95% CI: 1.69, 8.56) for female households. In a multivariate analysis excluding household type, child crowding was a protective factor, the OR being 0.68 (95% CI: 0.51, 0.90) for households with >2 children per household. Conclusions Bissau has a very high incidence of intrathoracic TB. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), increasing age, male sex, ethnicity, adult crowding, family structure, and poor housing conditions were independent risk factors for TB. Apart from HIV prevention, TB control programmes need to emphasize risk factors such as socioeconomic inequality, ethnic differences, crowding, and gender.
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- Galanis, I, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of PCV7 and PCV13 on invasive pneumococcal disease and carriage in Stockholm, Sweden
- 2016
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Ingår i: The European respiratory journal. - : European Respiratory Society (ERS). - 1399-3003 .- 0903-1936. ; 47:4, s. 1208-1218
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The effects of pneumococcal conjugated vaccines (PCVs) need to be investigated. In Stockholm County, Sweden, PCV7 was introduced in the childhood immunisation programme in 2007 and changed to PCV13 in 2010.Over 90% of all invasive isolates during 2005–2014 (n=2336) and carriage isolates, 260 before and 647 after vaccine introduction, were characterised by serotyping, molecular typing and antibiotic susceptibility, and serotype diversity was calculated. Clinical information was collected for children and adults with invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD).The IPD incidence decreased post-PCV7, but not post-PCV13, in vaccinated children. Beneficial herd effects were seen in older children and adults, but not in the elderly. The herd protection was more pronounced post-PCV7 than post-PCV13. PCV7 serotypes decreased. IPD caused by PCV13 serotypes 3 and 19A increased post-PCV7. Post-PCV13, serotypes 6A and 19A, but not serotype 3, decreased. The serotype distribution changed in carriage and IPD to nonvaccine types, also in nonvaccinated populations. Expansion of non-PCV13 serotypes was largest following PCV13 introduction. Serotype diversity increased and nonvaccine clones emerged, such as CC433 (serotype 22F) in IPD and CC62 (serotype 11A) in carriage. In young children, meningitis, septicaemia and severe rhinosinusitis, but not bacteraemic pneumonia, decreased.Pneumococcal vaccination leads to expansion of new or minor serotypes/clones, also in nonvaccinated populations.
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- Hedberg, P, et al.
(författare)
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Clinical phenotypes and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2, influenza, RSV and seven other respiratory viruses: a retrospective study using complete hospital data
- 2022
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Ingår i: Thorax. - : BMJ. - 1468-3296 .- 0040-6376. ; 77:2, s. 154-163
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An understanding of differences in clinical phenotypes and outcomes COVID-19 compared with other respiratory viral infections is important to optimise the management of patients and plan healthcare. Herein we sought to investigate such differences in patients positive for SARS-CoV-2 compared with influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and other respiratory viruses.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study of hospitalised adults and children (≤15 years) who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus A/B, RSV, rhinovirus, enterovirus, parainfluenza viruses, metapneumovirus, seasonal coronaviruses, adenovirus or bocavirus in a respiratory sample at admission between 2011 and 2020.ResultsA total of 6321 adult (1721 SARS-CoV-2) and 6379 paediatric (101 SARS-CoV-2) healthcare episodes were included in the study. In adults, SARS-CoV-2 positivity was independently associated with younger age, male sex, overweight/obesity, diabetes and hypertension, tachypnoea as well as better haemodynamic measurements, white cell count, platelet count and creatinine values. Furthermore, SARS-CoV-2 was associated with higher 30-day mortality as compared with influenza (adjusted HR (aHR) 4.43, 95% CI 3.51 to 5.59), RSV (aHR 3.81, 95% CI 2.72 to 5.34) and other respiratory viruses (aHR 3.46, 95% CI 2.61 to 4.60), as well as higher 90-day mortality, ICU admission, ICU mortality and pulmonary embolism in adults. In children, patients with SARS-CoV-2 were older and had lower prevalence of chronic cardiac and respiratory diseases compared with other viruses.ConclusionsSARS-CoV-2 is associated with more severe outcomes compared with other respiratory viruses, and although associated with specific patient and clinical characteristics at admission, a substantial overlap precludes discrimination based on these characteristics.
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- Hedberg, P, et al.
(författare)
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Error in Table and Figure
- 2024
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Ingår i: JAMA pediatrics. - 2168-6211. ; 178:4, s. 421-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 22. |
- Hedberg, P, et al.
(författare)
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Errors in Table 2
- 2024
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Ingår i: JAMA pediatrics. - 2168-6211. ; 178:4, s. 421-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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- Nauclér, P., et al.
(författare)
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Impact of time to antibiotic therapy on clinical outcome in patients with bacterial infections in the emergency department : implications for antimicrobial stewardship
- 2021
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Ingår i: Clinical Microbiology and Infection. - : Elsevier. - 1198-743X .- 1469-0691. ; 27:2, s. 175-181
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Rapid initiation of antibiotic treatment is considered crucial in patients with severe infections such as septic shock and bacterial meningitis, but may not be as important for other infectious syndromes. A better understanding of which patients can tolerate a delay in start of therapy is important for antibiotic stewardship purposes.OBJECTIVES: To explore the existing evidence on the impact of time to antibiotics on clinical outcomes in patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with bacterial infections of different severity of illness and source of infection.SOURCES: A literature search was performed in the PubMed/MEDLINE database using combined search terms for various infectious syndromes (sepsis/septic shock, bacterial meningitis, lower respiratory tract infections, urinary tract infections, intra-abdominal infections and skin and soft tissue infections), time to antibiotic treatment, and clinical outcome.CONTENT: The literature search generated 8828 hits. After screening titles and abstracts and assessing potentially relevant full-text papers, 60 original articles (four randomized controlled trials, 43 observational studies) were included. Most articles addressed sepsis/septic shock, while few studies evaluated early initiation of therapy in mild to moderate disease. The lack of randomized trials and the risk of confounding factors and biases in observational studies warrant caution in the interpretation of results. We conclude that the literature supports prompt administration of effective antibiotics for septic shock and bacterial meningitis, but there is no clear evidence showing that a delayed start of therapy is associated with worse outcome for less severe infectious syndromes.IMPLICATIONS: For patients presenting with suspected bacterial infections, withholding antibiotic therapy until diagnostic results are available and a diagnosis has been established (e.g. by 4-8 h) seems acceptable in most cases unless septic shock or bacterial meningitis are suspected. This approach promotes the use of ecologically favourable antibiotics in the ED, reducing the risks of side effects and selection of resistance.
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- Sansoni, P, et al.
(författare)
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New advances in CMV and immunosenescence
- 2014
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Ingår i: Experimental gerontology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-6815 .- 0531-5565. ; 55, s. 54-62
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 42. |
- Valik, JK, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence and mortality of hospital-onset bloodstream infection: a cohort study
- 2022
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Ingår i: BMJ quality & safety. - : BMJ. - 2044-5423 .- 2044-5415. ; 31:5, s. 379-382
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic burdens hospitals, but consequences for quality of care outcomes such as healthcare-associated infections are largely unknown. This cohort included all adult hospital episodes (n=186 945) at an academic centre between January 2018 and January 2021. Data were collected from the hospitals’ electronic health record data repository. Hospital-onset bloodstream infection (HOB) was defined as any positive blood culture obtained ≥48 hours after admission classified based on microbiological and hospital administrative data. Subgroup analyses were performed with exclusion of potential contaminant bacteria. The cohort was divided into three groups: controls (prepandemic period), non-COVID-19 (pandemic period) and COVID-19 (pandemic period) based on either PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections from respiratory samples or International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision diagnoses U071 and U72 at discharge. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) and risk of death in patients with HOB were compared between the prepandemic and pandemic periods using Poisson and logistic regression. The incidence of HOB was increased for the COVID-19 group compared with the prepandemic period (aIRR 3.34, 95% CI 2.97 to 3.75). In the non-COVID-19 group, the incidence was slightly increased compared with prepandemic levels (aIRR 1.20, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.32), but the difference decreased when excluding potential contaminant bacteria (aIRR 1.15, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.31, p=0.04). The risk of dying increased for both the COVID-19 group (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.44, 95% CI 1.75 to 3.38) and the non-COVID-19 group (aOR 1.63, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.16) compared with the prepandemic controls. These findings were consistent also when excluding potential contaminants. In summary, we observed a higher incidence of HOB during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the mortality risk associated with HOB was greater, compared with the prepandemic period. Results call for specific attention to quality of care during the pandemic.
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- Verberk, J.D.M., et al.
(författare)
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Automated surveillance systems for healthcare-associated infections : results from a European survey and experiences from real-life utilization
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Hospital Infection. - : Elsevier. - 0195-6701 .- 1532-2939. ; 122, s. 35-43
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: As most automated surveillance (AS) methods to detect healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) have been developed and implemented in research settings, information about the feasibility of large-scale implementation is scarce.Aim: To describe key aspects of the design of AS systems and implementation in European institutions and hospitals.Methods: An online survey was distributed via e-mail in February/March 2019 among (i) PRAISE (Providing a Roadmap for Automated Infection Surveillance in Europe) network members; (ii) corresponding authors of peer-reviewed European publications on existing AS systems; and (iii) the mailing list of national infection prevention and control focal points of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Three AS systems from the survey were selected, based on quintessential features, for in-depth review focusing on implementation in practice.Findings: Through the survey and the review of three selected AS systems, notable differences regarding the methods, algorithms, data sources, and targeted HAIs were identified. The majority of AS systems used a classification algorithm for semi-automated surveillance and targeted HAIs were mostly surgical site infections, urinary tract infections, sepsis, or other bloodstream infections. AS systems yielded a reduction of workload for hospital staff. Principal barriers of implementation were strict data security regulations as well as creating and maintaining an information technology infrastructure.Conclusion: AS in Europe is characterized by heterogeneity in methods and surveillance targets. To allow for comparisons and encourage homogenization, future publications on AS systems should provide detailed information on source data, methods, and the state of implementation.
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