| 1. |
- Fischer, Hubertus, et al.
(författare)
-
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 11:7, s. 474-485
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise.
|
|
| 2. |
- Jungclaus, Johann H., et al.
(författare)
-
The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 3 : The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10:11, s. 4005-4033
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The pre-industrial millennium is among the periods selected by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) for experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the fourth phase of the PMIP (PMIP4). The past1000 transient simulations serve to investigate the response to (mainly) natural forcing under background conditions not too different from today, and to discriminate between forced and internally generated variability on interannual to centennial timescales. This paper describes the motivation and the experimental set-ups for the PMIP4-CMIP6 past1000 simulations, and discusses the forcing agents orbital, solar, volcanic, and land use/land cover changes, and variations in greenhouse gas concentrations. The past1000 simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium from 850 Common Era (CE) to 1849 CE have to be complemented by historical simulations (1850 to 2014 CE) following the CMIP6 protocol. The external forcings for the past1000 experiments have been adapted to provide a seamless transition across these time periods. Protocols for the past1000 simulations have been divided into three tiers. A default forcing data set has been defined for the Tier 1 (the CMIP6 past1000) experiment. However, the PMIP community has maintained the flexibility to conduct coordinated sensitivity experiments to explore uncertainty in forcing reconstructions as well as parameter uncertainty in dedicated Tier 2 simulations. Additional experiments (Tier 3) are defined to foster collaborative model experiments focusing on the early instrumental period and to extend the temporal range and the scope of the simulations. This paper outlines current and future research foci and common analyses for collaborative work between the PMIP and the observational communities (reconstructions, instrumental data).
|
|
| 3. |
- Mulvaney, Robert, et al.
(författare)
-
The ST22 chronology for the Skytrain Ice Rise ice core - Part 2 : An age model to the last interglacial and disturbed deep stratigraphy
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - 1814-9324. ; 19:4, s. 851-864
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present an age model for the 651g€¯m deep ice core from Skytrain Ice Rise, situated inland of the Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica. The top 2000 years have previously been dated using age markers interpolated through annual layer counting. Below this, we align the Skytrain core to the AICC2012 age model using tie points in the ice and air phase, and we apply the Paleochrono program to obtain the best fit to the tie points and glaciological constraints. In the gas phase, ties are made using methane and, in critical sections, δ18Oair; in the ice phase ties are through 10Be across the Laschamps event and through ice chemistry related to long-range dust transport and deposition. This strategy provides a good outcome to about 108g€¯ka (g1/4g€¯605g€¯m). Beyond that there are signs of flow disturbance, with a section of ice probably repeated. Nonetheless values of CH4 and δ18Oair confirm that part of the last interglacial (LIG), from about 117-126g€¯ka (617-627g€¯m), is present and in chronological order. Below this there are clear signs of stratigraphic disturbance, with rapid oscillation of values in both the ice and gas phase at the base of the LIG section, below 628g€¯m. Based on methane values, the warmest part of the LIG and the coldest part of the penultimate glacial are missing from our record. Ice below 631g€¯m appears to be of ageg€¯>g€¯150g€¯ka.
|
|
| 4. |
- Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., et al.
(författare)
-
The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6-Part 2 : Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10:11, s. 3979-4003
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present) are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern ones. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land-sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional sensitivity experiments, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external feedbacks (e.g., vegetation, dust) and the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes realistically.
|
|
