| 1. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 5. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 8. |
- Mokdad, A. H., et al.
(författare)
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Intentional injuries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990–2015 : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Public Health. - : Springer International Publishing. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63, s. 39-46
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: We used GBD 2015 findings to measure the burden of intentional injuries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2015. Methods: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study defines intentional injuries as a combination of self-harm (including suicide), interpersonal violence, collective violence (war), and legal intervention. We estimated number of deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for each type of intentional injuries. Results: In 2015, 28,695 individuals (95% UI: 25,474–37,832) died from self-harm, 35,626 (95% UI: 20,947–41,857) from interpersonal violence, and 143,858 (95% UI: 63,554–223,092) from collective violence and legal interventions. In 2015, collective violence and legal intervention was the fifth-leading cause of DALYs in the EMR and the leading cause in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya; they account for 49.7% of total DALYs in Syria. Conclusions: Our findings call for increased efforts to stabilize the region and assist in rebuilding the health systems, as well as increasing transparency and employing preventive strategies to reduce self-harm and interpersonal injuries. © 2017, The Author(s).
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| 9. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 10. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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| 11. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 12. |
- Cerutti, P. O., et al.
(författare)
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The socioeconomic and environmental impacts of wood energy value chains in Sub-Saharan Africa : A systematic map protocol
- 2015
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Ingår i: Environmental Evidence. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2047-2382. ; 4:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The vast majority of households in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) depend on wood energy - comprising firewood and charcoal - for their daily energetic needs. Such consumption trends are expected to remain a common feature of SSA's wood energy production and supply chains, at least in the short- to medium-terms. Notwithstanding its importance, wood energy generally has low priority in SSA national policies. However, the use of wood energy is often considered a key driver of unsustainable management and negative environmental consequences in the humid and dry forests. To date, unsystematic assessments of the socio-economic and environmental consequences of wood energy use have underplayed its significance, thus further hampering policy debates. Therefore, a more balanced approach which considers both demand and supply dynamics is needed. This systematic map aims at providing a comprehensive approach to understanding the role and impacts of wood energy across all regions and aspects in SSA. Methods: The objective of this systematic map is to collate evidence from studies of environmental and socio-economic impacts of wood energy value chains, by considering both demand and supply within SSA. The map questions are framed using a Populations, Exposure, Comparators and Outcomes (PECO) approach. We name the supply and demand of wood energy as the "exposure," composed of wood energy production, harvesting, processing, and consumption. The populations of interest include both the actors involved in these activities and the forest sites where these activities occur. The comparator is defined as those cases where the same wood energy activities occur with i) available/accessible alternative energy sources, ii) regulatory frameworks that govern the sector and iii) alternative technologies for efficient use. The outcomes of interest encompass both socioeconomic and environmental impacts that can affect more than the populations named above. For instance, in addition to the direct socioeconomic impacts felt by participants in the wood energy value chain, forest dwellers may experience livelihood changes due to forest degradation caused by external harvesters. Moreover, intensified deforestation in one area may concurrently lead to forest regeneration in another.
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| 13. |
- Bett, B, et al.
(författare)
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Association between Rift Valley fever virus seroprevalences in livestock and humans and their respective intra-cluster correlation coefficients, Tana River County, Kenya
- 2019
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Ingår i: Epidemiology and Infection. - 0950-2688 .- 1469-4409. ; 147
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We implemented a cross-sectional study in Tana River County, Kenya, a Rift Valley fever (RVF)-endemic area, to quantify the strength of association between RVF virus (RVFv) seroprevalences in livestock and humans, and their respective intra-cluster correlation coefficients (ICCs). The study involved 1932 livestock from 152 households and 552 humans from 170 households. Serum samples were collected and screened for anti-RVFv immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies using inhibition IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Data collected were analysed using generalised linear mixed effects models, with herd/household and village being fitted as random variables. The overall RVFv seroprevalences in livestock and humans were 25.41% (95% confidence interval (CI) 23.49-27.42%) and 21.20% (17.86-24.85%), respectively. The presence of at least one seropositive animal in a household was associated with an increased odds of exposure in people of 2.23 (95% CI 1.03-4.84). The ICCs associated with RVF virus seroprevalence in livestock were 0.30 (95% CI 0.19-0.44) and 0.22 (95% CI 0.12-0.38) within and between herds, respectively. These findings suggest that there is a greater variability of RVF virus exposure between than within herds. We discuss ways of using these ICC estimates in observational surveys for RVF in endemic areas and postulate that the design of the sentinel herd surveillance should consider patterns of RVF clustering to enhance its effectiveness as an early warning system for RVF epidemics.
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| 14. |
- Dorlo, Thomas P. C., et al.
(författare)
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Visceral leishmaniasis relapse hazard is linked to reduced miltefosine exposure in patients from Eastern Africa : a population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic study
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 0305-7453 .- 1460-2091. ; 72:11, s. 3131-3140
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Low efficacy of miltefosine in the treatment of visceral leishmaniasis was recently observed in Eastern Africa. Objectives: To describe the pharmacokinetics and establish a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic relationship for miltefosine in Eastern African patients with visceral leishmaniasis, using a time-to-event approach to model relapse of disease. Methods: Miltefosine plasma concentrations from 95 patients (48 monotherapy versus 47 combination therapy) were included in the population pharmacokinetic model using non-linear mixed effects modelling. Subsequently a time-to-event model was developed to model the time of clinical relapse. Various summary pharmacokinetic parameters (various AUCs, Time > EC50, Time > EC90), normalized within each treatment arm to allow simultaneous analysis, were evaluated as relapse hazard-changing covariates. Results: A two-compartment population model with first-order absorption fitted the miltefosine pharmacokinetic data adequately. Relative bioavailability was reduced (- 74%, relative standard error 4.7%) during the first week of treatment of the monotherapy arm but only the first day of the shorter combination regimen. Time to the relapse of infection could be described using a constant baseline hazard (baseline 1.8 relapses/year, relative standard error 72.7%). Miltefosine Time > EC90 improved the model significantly when added in a maximum effect function on the baseline hazard (half maximal effect with Time. > EC90 6.97 days for monotherapy). Conclusions: Miltefosine drug exposure was found to be decreased in Eastern African patients with visceral leishmaniasis, due to a (transient) initial lower bioavailability. Relapse hazard was inversely linked to miltefosine exposure. Significantly lower miltefosine exposure was observed in children compared with adults, further urging the need for implementation of dose adaptations for children.
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| 15. |
- Karimi, F., et al.
(författare)
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Resilience of research capacity strengthening initiatives in Africa during crises: the case of CARTA during COVID
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global health action. - 1654-9880 .- 1654-9880. ; 16:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Several research capacity strengthening (RCS) initiatives have been established in Africa over the past decade. One such initiative is the Consortium for Advanced Research Training in Africa (CARTA) that has gained traction over the years and has been proven as an effective multidisciplinary approach to strengthen research capacity to address public and population health in Africa. Objectives: In this article, we document the experiences and management-related interventions that cushioned the CARTA programme and enabled it to remain resilient during the COVID pandemic. We further make recommendations on the enablers of resilience and optimal performance of such RCS initiatives during crises and beyond. Methods: We used routine information gathered by the CARTA secretariat from consortium correspondence, meeting minutes, reports and other related documents produced in the year 2020 in order to consolidate the experiences and interventions taken by the programme at programmatic, institutional and fellowship levels. Results: We identified a series of management-related cyclic phases that CARTA went through during the pandemic period, which included immobilisation, reflection, brainstorming, decision-making, intervening and recovery. We further identified strategic management-related interventions that contributed to the resilience of the programme during the pandemic including assessment and monitoring, communication management, policy and resource management, making investments and execution. Moreover, we observed that the strength of the leadership and management of CARTA, coupled with the consortium & PRIME;s culture of collaboration, mutual trust, respect, openness, transparency, equitability, ownership, commitment and accountability, all contributed to its success during the pandemic period. Conclusion: We conclude that RCS initiatives undergo a series of phases during crises and that they need to promptly adopt and adapt appropriate management-related strategic interventions in order to remain resilient during such periods. This can be significantly realised if RCS initiatives build a culture of trust, commitment and joint ownership, and if they invest in strong management capacity.
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| 16. |
- Nguli, M., et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of essential micronutrient levels in common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris) in Kenya by total reflection X-ray fluorescence
- 2022
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Ingår i: X-Ray Spectrometry. - : Wiley. - 0049-8246 .- 1097-4539. ; 51:3, s. 198-203
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In Kenya, where malnutrition and hidden hunger still pose a significant challenge to growth and development, beans are an essential source of food for most of the population. However, data on micronutrient in beans are limited, and although they are required in very small amounts, they are essential for growth and development of plants as well as human beings. The aim of this study was to determine the concentrations of Mn, Fe, Cu, and Zn, in common beans in Kenya. Samples of both fresh bean leaves and dry grains of the most common bean varieties were collected from small-scale farmers in Muguga and Kyevaluki in Kiambu and Machakos Counties, respectively. They were analyzed using total reflection x-ray fluorescence (TXRF), a technique of increasing interest for food analysis since it is fast, easy, and reliable. Standard methods of sample preparation were used, and average elemental concentrations were compared with established sufficiency ranges. Bean leaves and dry bean grains from both sampling areas had sufficient concentrations of the four analyzed elements. Except for the Fe concentrations, the concentrations of the others elements were in the lower end of the sufficiency range for all bean species. The results obtained from this study are essential information for both farmers and policy makers and can be incorporated in programs to guide policy aimed at improving the nutritional quality of beans and thus food security in Kenya. © 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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| 17. |
- Omollo, Raymond, et al.
(författare)
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Safety and efficacy of miltefosine alone and in combination with sodium stibogluconate and liposomal amphotericin B for the treatment of primary visceral leishmaniasis in East Africa : study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.
- 2011
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Ingår i: Trials. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1745-6215. ; 12, s. 166-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Treatment options for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in East Africa are far from satisfactory due to cost, toxicity, prolonged treatment duration or emergence of parasite resistance. Hence there is a need to explore alternative treatment protocols such as miltefosine alone or in combinations including miltefosine, sodium stibogluconate (SSG) or liposomal amphotericin B. The aim of this trial is to identify regimen(s) which are sufficiently promising for future trials in East Africa.METHODS/DESIGN: A phase II randomized, parallel arm, open-labelled trial is being conducted to assess the efficacy of each of the three regimens: liposomal amphotericin B with SSG, Liposomal amphotericin B with miltefosine and miltefosine alone. The primary endpoint is cure at day 28 with secondary endpoint at day 210 (6 months). Initial cure is a single composite measure based on parasitologic evaluation (bone marrow, spleen or lymph node aspirate) and clinical assessment. Repeated interim analyses have been planned after recruitment of 15 patients in each arm with a maximum sample size of 63 for each. These will follow group-sequential methods (the triangular test) to identify when a regimen is inadequate (<75% efficacy) or adequate (>90% efficacy). We describe a method to ensure consistency of the sequential analysis of day 28 cure with the non-sequential analysis of day 210 cure.DISCUSSION: A regimen with adequate efficacy would be a candidate for treatment of VL with reasonable costs. The design allows repeated testing throughout the trial recruitment period while maintaining good statistical properties (Type I & II error rates) and reducing the expected sample sizes.TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01067443.
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| 18. |
- Gitau, K. J., et al.
(författare)
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Factors influencing the adoption of biochar-producing gasifier cookstoves by households in rural Kenya
- 2019
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Ingår i: Energy for Sustainable Development. - : ELSEVIER. - 0973-0826 .- 2352-4669. ; 52, s. 63-71
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fuel wood is the main source of cooking and heating energy in developing countries. However, it is combusted in inefficient cookstoves, leading to more fuel use and human health problems resulting from exposure to smoke. Thus new, efficient cooking systems that can address some of these problems are required. This study examined gasifier cookstove use in Kwale County, Kenya, and factors influencing adoption. Gasifier stoves were issued for free to 50 households, which were surveyed after 2-3 months of use. The results showed that the stove was used by 96% of the households at varying frequencies, 40% of them used it almost every day with 4% switching to only using the new stove. All the users appreciated it because it saved fuel, produced less smoke, and produced charcoal to use for either cooking or soil amendment. Compared with the traditional three-stone open fire, the gasifier stove was reported to be easier to clean (98% of respondents), easier to adjust the heat (88%), easier to handle (58%), caused less exposure to heat (96%) and was cleaner for pots and the kitchen (98%). Another reported benefit of the gasifier stove was that it needed no tending (i.e., adjusting wood and blowing to keep the flames burning). The gasifier stove was mainly used to cook foods that required a short cooking time and many preferred to use it to cook dinner. However, the households encountered some challenges with using the gasifier stoves. For example, fuel preparation, reloading, and lighting were reported as challenges by 42%, 77% and 19%, respectively, of the 83% of households who reported challenges. These challenges could be overcome by improving stove design and by devising innovative ways of cutting fuel into small pieces. 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of International Energy Initiative.
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| 19. |
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| 20. |
- Khaemba, C, et al.
(författare)
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Safety and Tolerability of Mass Diethylcarbamazine and Albendazole Administration for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis in Kenya: An Active Surveillance Study
- 2021
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Ingår i: Pharmaceuticals (Basel, Switzerland). - : MDPI AG. - 1424-8247. ; 14:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Preventive chemotherapy with diethylcarbamazine citrate (DEC) and albendazole (ALB) is the core intervention strategy to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF). We conducted a large-scale prospective active safety surveillance study to identify the incidence, type, severity, and risk factors for adverse events (AEs) following mass drug administration (MDA) of single-dose DEC and ALB in 10,010 participants from Kilifi County, Kenya. AEs were actively monitored and graded at 24 h, 48 h, and on day 7 Post-MDA. Out of 10,010 enrolled study participants, 1621 participants reported a total of 3102 AEs during a seven-day follow-up. The cumulative incidence of AEs was 16.2% (95% CI, 15.5–16.9%). The proportion of participants who experienced one, two, or ≥three types of AEs was 9.2%, 4.6%, 2.4%, respectively. AEs were mild (87.3%), moderate (12.4%), and severe (0.3%) and resolved within 72 h. The five most common AEs were dizziness (5.9%), headache (5.6%), loss of appetite (3.3%), fever (2.9%), and drowsiness (2.6%). Older age, taking concurrent medications, ≥three tablets of DEC, and type of meal taken before MDA were significant predictors of AEs. One in six participants experienced systemic mild-to-moderate severity grading and transient AEs. DEC and ALB co-administration for the elimination of LF is generally safe and well-tolerated.
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| 21. |
- Musa, Ahmed M, et al.
(författare)
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Paromomycin and Miltefosine Combination as an Alternative to Treat Patients With Visceral Leishmaniasis in Eastern Africa : A Randomized, Controlled, Multicountry Trial.
- 2022
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Ingår i: Clinical Infectious Diseases. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1058-4838 .- 1537-6591. ; 76:3, s. e1177-e1185
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: This study aimed to determine whether paromomycin plus miltefosine (PM/MF) is noninferior to sodium stibogluconate plus paromomycin (SSG/PM) for treatment of primary visceral leishmaniasis in eastern Africa.METHODS: An open-label, phase 3, randomized, controlled trial was conducted in adult and pediatric patients at 7 sites in eastern Africa. Patients were randomly assigned to either 20 mg/kg paromomycin plus allometric dose of miltefosine (14 days), or 20 mg/kg sodium stibogluconate plus 15 mg/kg paromomycin (17 days). The primary endpoint was definitive cure after 6 months.RESULTS: Of 439 randomized patients, 424 completed the trial. Definitive cure at 6 months was 91.2% (155 of 170) and 91.8% (156 of 170) in the PM/MF and SSG/PM arms in primary efficacy modified intention-to-treat analysis (difference, 0.6%; 97.5% confidence interval [CI], -6.2 to 7.4), narrowly missing the noninferiority margin of 7%. In the per-protocol analysis, efficacy was 92% (149 of 162) and 91.7% (155 of 169) in the PM/MF and SSG/PM arms (difference, -0.3%; 97.5% CI, -7.0 to 6.5), demonstrating noninferiority. Treatments were well tolerated. Four of 18 serious adverse events were study drug-related, and 1 death was SSG-related. Allometric dosing ensured similar MF exposure in children (<12 years) and adults.CONCLUSIONS: PM/MF and SSG/PM efficacies were similar, and adverse drug reactions were as expected given the drugs safety profiles. With 1 less injection each day, reduced treatment duration, and no risk of SSG-associated life-threatening cardiotoxicity, PM/MF is a more patient-friendly alternative for children and adults with primary visceral leishmaniasis in eastern Africa. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT03129646.
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| 22. |
- Njenga, Mary, et al.
(författare)
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Additional cooking fuel supply and reduced global warming potential from recycling charcoal dust into charcoal briquette in Kenya
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-6526 .- 1879-1786. ; 81, s. 81-88
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rising demand for energy is one of the major challenges facing the world today and charcoal is a principal fuel in Kenya. Faced with energy poverty many poor households turn to briquette making. This study assessed the additional cooking fuel obtained from recycling charcoal dust into charcoal briquettes. It applied Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to assess the global warming potential (GWP) from use of charcoal and production of briquettes from charcoal dust and cooking a traditional meal for a standard household of five people. Native vegetation of Acacia drepanolobium and a low efficiency kiln were considered the common practice, while an Acacia mearnsii plantation and a high efficiency kiln was used as an alternative scenario. Charcoal and kerosene were considered as reference fuels. Recovering charcoal dust for charcoal briquettes supplied an additional 16% cooking fuel. Wood carbonization and cooking caused the highest GWP, so there is a need for technologies to improve the efficiency at these two stages of charcoal briquettes and charcoal supply chain. Supplying energy and cooking a traditional meal in a combined system using charcoal and recovering charcoal dust for charcoal briquettes and charcoal alone accounted for 5.3-4.12 and 6.4-4.94 kg CO2 eq. per meal, respectively, assuming trees were not replanted. These amounts declined three times when the carbon dioxide from the carbonization and cooking stages was assumed to be taken up by growing biomass. This requires replanting of trees cut down for charcoal if the neutral impact of biomass energy on GWP is to be maintained. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).
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| 23. |
- Njenga, Mary, et al.
(författare)
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Gasifier as a cleaner cooking system in rural Kenya
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-6526 .- 1879-1786. ; 121, s. 208-217
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global demand for wood fuel energy is high and rising due to population increases, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where firewood and charcoal are the main sources of cooking energy. Inefficient cooking techniques consume large amounts of fuel and create indoor pollution, with negative health impacts particularly among women and small children. Efficient cooking stoves can potentially save fuel and reduce the health risks of smoke in the kitchen. This study compared the ease of use, energy consumption, fuel use efficiency and gas and particle emissions of a small-scale gasifier cooking stove with that of a traditional three-stone stove and an improved Hifadhi stove in a smallholder farming setting in Kenya. This was done by participatory evaluation of these cooking techniques by women on smallholder farms, assessing fuel consumption, time used in cooking and indoor air concentrations of carbon monoxide and fine particulate matter. It was found that compared with traditional and improved cooking stoves, the gasifier domestic cooking system saved 27-40% of fuel, reduced cooking time by 19-23% and reduced emissions by 40-90%. Thus the gasifier system has potential to alleviate energy and time poverty among small-scale farmers, while improving kitchen air quality. These new findings can assist in development of cleaner biomass cooking technologies in developing countries. Women who cooked using the gasifier preferred it to current cooking practices due to perceived benefits. Thus the gasifier is appropriate for rural areas; it constitutes a cleaner cooking system that saves fuel, produces charcoal for another round of cooking, cooks rapidly, and reduces indoor air pollution from cooking with biomass fuel. However, there is a need to improve the design to make it more stable and safer.
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| 24. |
- Odhiambo, Ruth A., et al.
(författare)
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Synthesis, characterisation and ion-binding properties of oxathiacrown ethers appended to [Ru(bpy)2]2+. Selectivity towards Hg2+, Cd2+ and Pb2
- 2018
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Ingår i: RSC Advances. - : Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC). - 2046-2069. ; 8:7, s. 3663-3672
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A series of complexes with oxathiacrown ethers appended to a [Ru(bpy)2]2+ moiety have been synthesized and characterised using 1H NMR, 13C NMR, IR, electronic absorption and emission spectroscopies, mass spectrometry and elemental analyses. The complexes exhibit strong MLCT luminescence bands in the range 608-611 nm and one reversible metal centred oxidation potential in the range 1.00-1.02 V. Their selectivity and sensitivity towards Hg2+, Cd2+ and Pb2+ metal ions have been investigated using electronic absorption, luminescence, cyclic and differential pulse voltammetry titrations. Their responses towards selected cations and anions have also been investigated using electronic absorption and luminescence. While the complexes are selective towards Hg2+ and Cd2+ ions, none of them is selective towards Pb2+ ions. In particular, complex 2 gives a selective change in the UV/Vis absorbance with Hg2+ making it possible to detect mercury down to a detection limit of 68 ppm. The binding constants and limits of detection of the complexes have been calculated, with values ranging from 4.37 to 5.38 and 1.4 × 10-3 to 6.8 × 10-5 for log Ks and LOD respectively.
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| 25. |
- Sundberg, Cecilia, et al.
(författare)
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Biochar from cookstoves reduces greenhouse gas emissions from smallholder farms in Africa
- 2020
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Ingår i: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. - : Springer Nature. - 1381-2386 .- 1573-1596. ; 25:6, s. 953-967
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Biochar produced in cookstoves has the potential to contribute to negative carbon emissions through sequestration of biomass carbon while also providing other benefits for sustainable development, including provision of clean renewable energy and increased yields in tropical agriculture. The aim of the reported research was to estimate effects on food production, household energy access and life cycle climate impact from introduction of biochar-producing cookstoves on smallholder farms in Kenya. Participatory research on biochar production and use was undertaken with 150 Kenyan smallholder farming households. Gasifier cookstove functionality, fuel efficiency and emissions were measured, as well as biochar effects on agricultural yields after application to soil. Cookstoves provided benefits through reduced smoke, fuel wood savings and char production, but challenges were found related to labour for fuel preparation, lighting and refilling. On-farm trials with varying rates of biochar inputs, in combination with and without mineral fertilizers, have led to a sustained increase of maize yields following one-time application. The climate impact in a life cycle perspective was considerably lower for the system with cookstove production of biochar and use of biochar in agriculture than for current cooking practices. Climate benefits from biochar production and use are thus possible on smallholder farms in sub-Saharan Africa, through reduced use of biomass in cooking, reduced emissions of products of incomplete combustion and sequestration of stable biochar carbon in soils. Biochar-producing cookstoves can be implemented as a climate change mitigation method in rural sub-Saharan Africa. Successful implementation will require changes in cooking systems including fuel supply, as well as farming systems, which, in turn, requires an understanding of local socio-cultural conditions, including power relations and gender aspects.
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| 26. |
- Verrest, Luka, et al.
(författare)
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Population pharmacokinetics of a combination of miltefosine and paromomycin in Eastern African children and adults with visceral leishmaniasis
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. - : Oxford University Press. - 0305-7453 .- 1460-2091. ; 78:11, s. 2702-2714
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: To improve visceral leishmaniasis (VL) treatment in Eastern Africa, 14- and 28-day combination regimens of paromomycin plus allometrically dosed miltefosine were evaluated. As the majority of patients affected by VL are children, adequate paediatric exposure to miltefosine and paromomycin is key to ensuring good treatment response.Methods: Pharmacokinetic data were collected in a multicentre randomized controlled trial in VL patients from Kenya, Sudan, Ethiopia and Uganda. Patients received paromomycin (20 mg/kg/day for 14 days) plus miltefosine (allometric dose for 14 or 28 days). Population pharmacokinetic models were developed. Adequacy of exposure and target attainment of paromomycin and miltefosine were evaluated in children and adults.Results: Data from 265 patients (59% & LE;12 years) were available for this pharmacokinetic analysis. Paromomycin exposure was lower in paediatric patients compared with adults [median (IQR) end-of-treatment AUC0-24h 187 (162-203) and 242 (217-328) & mu;g & BULL;h/mL, respectively], but were both within the IQR of end-of-treatment exposure in Kenyan and Sudanese adult patients from a previous study. Cumulative miltefosine end-of-treatment exposure in paediatric patients and adults [AUCD0-28 517 (464-552) and 524 (456-567) & mu;g & BULL;day/mL, respectively] and target attainment [time above the in vitro susceptibility value EC90 27 (25-28) and 30 (28-32) days, respectively] were comparable to previously observed values in adults.Conclusions: Paromomycin and miltefosine exposure in this new combination regimen corresponded to the desirable levels of exposure, supporting the implementation of the shortened 14 day combination regimen. Moreover, the lack of a clear exposure-response and exposure-toxicity relationship indicated adequate exposure within the therapeutic range in the studied population, including paediatric patients.
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