| 1. |
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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 5. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 6. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 7. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 8. |
- Feigin, Valery L, et al.
(författare)
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Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016.
- 2018
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Ingår i: The New England journal of medicine. - 1533-4406 .- 0028-4793. ; 379:25, s. 2429-2437
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).
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| 9. |
- Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al.
(författare)
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Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
- 2016
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Ingår i: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
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| 11. |
- Elbagir, Sahwa, et al.
(författare)
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Accumulation of antinuclear associated antibodies in circulating immune complexes is more prominent in SLE patients from Sudan than Sweden
- 2020
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The role of anti-nuclear autoantibody (ANA) specificities in immune complexes (IC) formation has been studied to a limited extent in SLE, and not at all in African SLE patients. We compared ANA in IC from Sudanese and Swedish SLE patients. We included 93 Sudanese and 332 Swedish SLE patients fulfilling the 1982 ACR criteria. IC were captured using C1q-coated beads. ANA specificities were quantified in sera and IC. Results were related to modified SLEDAI. Whereas serum levels of anti-Sm, anti-dsDNA and anti-ribosomal P were higher in Swedish patients, IC levels of most ANA specificities were higher among Sudanese patients. This difference was especially prominent for anti-chromatin antibodies, which remained after adjustment for age, disease duration and treatment. Total levels of C1q-binding IC correlated with levels of specific ANA in IC, with highest correlations for anti-chromatin antibodies among Sudanese patients. Whereas occurrence of anti-SSA/Ro60, anti-histone and anti-U1RNP in both serum and IC associated with high SLEDAI score, anti-dsDNA in IC but not in serum associated with high SLEDAI. ANA, especially antibodies targeting chromatin, accumulate more in IC from Sudanese SLE patients. If the autoantibody fraction forming IC is pathogenically important, this might explain the generally described severe SLE in black populations.
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| 12. |
- Elbagir, Sahwa, et al.
(författare)
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Anti-histone and anti-nucleosome rather than anti-dsDNA antibodies associate with IFN-induced biomarkers in Sudanese and Swedish Systemic Lupus Erythematosus patients.
- 2024
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Ingår i: Rheumatology. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 1462-0324 .- 1462-0332.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: In SLE, anti-dsDNA can co-occur with autoantibodies against other chromatin components, like histones and nucleosomes. These antibodies induce type-1 interferon production, a hallmark of SLE. We measured antinuclear antibody (ANA) sub-specificities and investigated their associations to inflammatory biomarkers including interferon-regulated chemokines.METHODS: We included 93 Sudanese and 480 Swedish SLE patients and matched controls (N = 104 + 192). Autoantibodies targeting ANA-subspecificites: dsDNA, Sm, Sm/U1RNPcomplex, U1RNP, SSA/Ro52, SSA/Ro60, SSB/La, ribosomal P, PCNA and histones were quantified in all subjects, anti-nucleosome only in the Swedish patients, with a bead-based multiplex immunoassay. Levels of 72 plasma biomarkers were determined with Proximity Extension Assay technique or ELISA.RESULTS: Among Sudanese patients, the investigated antibodies significantly associated with 9/72 biomarkers. Anti-histone antibodies showed the strongest positive correlations with MCP-3 and S100A12 as well as with interferon I-inducible factors MCP-1 and CXCL10. Anti-dsDNA antibodies associated with CXCL10 and S100A12, but in multivariate analyses, unlike anti-histone, associations lost significance.Among Swedish patients, MCP-1, CXCL10, SA100A12 also demonstrated stronger associations to anti-histone and anti-nucleosome antibodies, compared with anti-dsDNA and other ANA sub-specificities. In multiple regression models, anti-histone/nucleosome retained the strongest associations. When excluding anti-histone or anti-nucleosome positive patients, the associations between MCP-1/CXCL10 and anti-dsDNA were lost. In contrast, when excluding anti-dsDNA positive patients, associations with anti-histone and anti-nucleosome remained significant.CONCLUSION: In two cohorts of different ethnical origin, autoantibodies targeting chromatin correlate stronger with IFN-induced inflammatory biomarkers than anti-dsDNA or other ANA sub-specificities. Our results suggest that anti-histone/nucleosome autoantibodies may be main drivers of type-1 interferon activity in SLE.
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| 13. |
- Elbagir, Sahwa, et al.
(författare)
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Associations with thrombosis are stronger for antiphosphatidylserine/prothrombin antibodies than for the Sydney criteria antiphospholipid antibody tests in SLE
- 2021
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Ingår i: Lupus. - : Sage Publications. - 0961-2033 .- 1477-0962. ; 30:8, s. 1289-1299
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: Antiphosphatidylserine/prothrombin complex antibodies (aPS/PT) are risk factors for thrombosis, yet further validation of their clinical relevance in different ethnic groups is required. We investigated the performance of aPS/PT of IgA/G/M isotypes among Sudanese and Swedish systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients.Methods: Consecutive SLE patients/matched controls from Sudan (n = 91/102) and Sweden (n = 332/163) were included. All patients fulfilled the 1982 ACR SLE classification criteria. IgA/G/M of aPS/PT, anti-cardiolipin and anti-beta(2)glycoprotein I (anti-beta(2)GPI) were tested in both cohorts, and lupus anticoagulant (LA) also in the Swedish cohort. Clinical antiphospholipid syndrome-related events and atherosclerosis, measured as carotid plaques were assessed for associations. Univariate and multivariate analyses adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors were performed.Results: Sudanese SLE patients had higher levels of IgM aPS/PT, but using national cut-offs, the frequency of positivity was similar to Swedish patients for all isotypes. Among Swedish patients, all isotypes of aPS/PT associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE), while only IgA aPS/PT associated with arterial thrombosis (AT). aPS/PT antibodies associated strongly with LA and they were, independently, the best predictor for VTE. Double positivity for aPS/PT and anti-beta(2)GPI associated with higher VTE risk than the conventional triple positivity. Carotid plaques did not associate with any antiphospholipid antibody.Conclusions: IgA aPS/PT associated with AT, and the association of IgG/M aPS/PT with VTE outperforms LA and criteria antiphospholipid antibodies in Swedish SLE patients. Furthermore, double positivity for aPS/PT and anti-beta(2)GPI performed better than conventional triple positivity. Future studies need to address if aPS/PT can replace LA, as this would simplify clinical procedures.
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| 14. |
- Elbagir, Sahwa, et al.
(författare)
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High IgA anti-phospholipid autoantibodies in healthy Sudanese explains the increased prevalence among Sudanese compared to Swedish systemic lupus erythematosus patients
- 2020
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Ingår i: Lupus. - : Sage Publications. - 0961-2033 .- 1477-0962. ; 29:11, s. 1412-1422
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: IgA antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) are prevalent in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients of African American, Afro-Caribbean and South African origin. Nevertheless, data from North Africa are lacking, and most studies use manufacturer-suggested cut-offs based on Caucasian controls. Therefore, we compared aPL isotypes in Sudanese and Swedish SLE patients using nation-based cut-offs.Methods: Consecutive SLE patients and age- and sex-matched controls from Sudan (N = 115/106) and Sweden (N = 340/318) were included. All patients fulfilled the 1982 American College of Rheumatology SLE classification criteria. Antiphospholipid syndrome-related events were obtained from patients' records. IgA/G/M anticardiolipin and anti-β2 glycoprotein I (β2GPI) were analysed with two independent assays. IgA anti-β2GPI domain 1 (D1) was also investigated. Manufacturers' cut-offs and the 95th and 99th percentile cut-offs based on national controls were used.Results: Sudanese patients and controls had higher levels and were more often positive for IgA aPL than Swedes when using manufacturers' cut-offs. In contrast, using national cut-offs, the increase in IgA aPL among Sudanese patients was lost. Occurrence of IgA anti-D1 did not differ between the countries. Venous thromboses were less common among Sudanese patients and did not associate with aPL. No clinical associations were observed with IgA anti-β2GPI in Sudanese patients. Thromboses in Swedes were associated with IgG/M aPL. Fetal loss was associated with aPL in both cohorts.Conclusions: IgA anti-β2GPI prevalence was higher among Sudanese compared to Swedish patients when manufacturers' cut-offs were used. This situation was reversed when applying national cut-offs. Anti-D1 was not increased in Sudanese patients. Previous studies on populations of African origin, which demonstrate a high prevalence of IgA aPL positivity, should be re-evaluated using a similar cut-off approach.
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| 15. |
- Elbagir, Sahwa, et al.
(författare)
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Sudanese and Swedish patients with systemic lupus erythematosus : immunological and clinical comparisons
- 2020
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Ingår i: Rheumatology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1462-0324 .- 1462-0332. ; 59:5, s. 968-978
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: SLE is known to have an aggressive phenotype in black populations, but data from African cohorts are largely lacking. We therefore compared immunological and clinical profiles between Sudanese and Swedish patients using similar tools.METHODS: Consecutive SLE patients from Sudan (n = 115) and Sweden (n = 340) and from 106 Sudanese and 318 Swedish age- and sex-matched controls were included. All patients fulfilled the 1982 ACR classification criteria for SLE. Ten ANA-associated specificities and C1q-binding immune complexes (CICs) were measured. Cut-offs were established based on Sudanese and Swedish controls, respectively. Disease activity was measured with a modified SLEDAI and organ damage with the SLICC Damage Index. In a nested case-control design, Swedish and Sudanese patients were matched for age and disease duration.RESULTS: Females constituted 95.6% and 88.1% of Sudanese and Swedish patients, respectively (P = 0.02), with younger age at inclusion (33 vs 47.7 years; P < 0.0001) and shorter disease duration (5 vs 14 years; P < 0.0001) among Sudanese patients. Anti-Sm antibodies were more frequent in Sudanese patients, whereas anti-dsDNA, anti-histone and CICs were higher in Swedish patients. In the matched analyses, there was a trend for higher SLEDAI among Swedes. However, Sudanese patients had more damage, solely attributed to high frequencies of cranial/peripheral neuropathy and diabetes.CONCLUSION: While anti-Sm is more common in Sudan than in Sweden, the opposite is found for anti-dsDNA. Sudanese patients had higher damage scores, mainly because of neuropathy and diabetes. Sudanese patients were younger, with a shorter SLE duration, possibly indicating a more severe disease course with impact on survival rates.
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| 16. |
- ElShafie, Amir Ibrahim, 1970-, et al.
(författare)
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Active Rheumatoid Arthritis in Central Africa : A Comparative Study Between Sudan and Sweden
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Rheumatology. - : The Journal of Rheumatology. - 0315-162X .- 1499-2752. ; 43:10, s. 1777-1786
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective. To compare clinical characteristics and treatment between simultaneously investigated Sudanese and Swedish outpatients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA).Methods. Outpatients with RA from Sudan (n = 281) and Sweden (n = 542) diagnosed according to the 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria were recruited between December 2008 and September 2010 and compared concerning clinical presentation, treatment, and laboratory findings, including immunoglobulin M with rheumatoid factor (IgM-RF).Results. Sudanese patients had lower inclusion age (median 49 vs 68 yrs), disease duration (48 vs 107 mos), and disease onset age (43 vs 56 yrs) as compared with Swedish patients (p < 0.0001 for all). When stratified concerning the age of inclusion, Swedish patients between 41-50 years had, however, a significantly lower age of onset, with a similar trend for all age groups above 30 years. The female preponderance was higher among Sudanese patients (89.3% vs 72.5%, p < 0.0001), and smoking was nonexistent among Sudanese female patients (p < 0.0001). Erythrocyte sedimentation rate levels and number of tender joints were significantly higher among Sudanese patients. The proportion of IgM-RF positivity was lower among Sudanese patients with RA (52.4% vs 75.5%, p < 0.0001). Higher proportions of Sudanese patients with RA were treated with methotrexate (MTX) and disease-modifying antirheumatic drug combinations, but none of them used biologics. Sudanese patients used lower doses of MTX and sulfasalazine (p < 0.0001) and higher doses of prednisolone (p < 0.0001) than Swedish patients.Conclusion. Sudanese patients with RA have significantly higher disease activity and are often IgM-RF-seronegative. Together with reports from Uganda and Cameroon, our data indicate a cluster of highly active and often seronegative RA in central Africa.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
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| 19. |
- ElShafie, Amir Ibrahim, 1970-, et al.
(författare)
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Occurrence of anti-CCP2 and RF isotypes and their relation to age and disease severity among Sudanese patients with rheumatoid arthritis
- 2019
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Ingår i: Clinical Rheumatology. - : SPRINGER LONDON LTD. - 0770-3198 .- 1434-9949. ; 38:6, s. 1545-1553
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective Anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide 2 antibodies (anti-CCP2) and rheumatoid factor (RF) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has been extensively assessed in industrialized countries. We investigated the diagnostic and prognostic impact of anti-CCP2 and RF isotypes in a Sudanese cross-sectional RA cohort. Methods Consecutive RA patients (n=281) diagnosed according to the 1987 ACR criteria were included 2008-2010. Anti-CCP2 and RF isotypes (IgA, IgM, and IgG) were measured by enzyme immunoassay in 262 patients, with reference intervals aligned to the same diagnostic specificity as for anti-CCP2 (97.6%) using national controls. Results IgA RF was the predominant RA-associated autoantibody (56%), followed by IgM RF and anti-CCP2 (both 52%) and IgG RF (49%). In receiver operator characteristic analysis, IgA RF also showed the largest area under the curve. Patients with IgG RF were younger and had 8years lower median age of disease onset compared to antibody negative patients (p<0.0001). IgG RF was the only marker associated with a high number of involved joints (p=0.028), and together with anti-CCP2 were the strongest markers for finger deformities (p=0.016 and p=0.012), respectively. No statistical differences were found for disease duration, ESR and Hb levels, and occurrence of erosions/osteopenia for any of the investigated autoantibodies. Conclusion Whereas IgA RF showed the best diagnostic performance, IgG RF associated with low age of RA onset, high number of involved joints, and finger deformities. These findings indicate that RA-associated antibodies other than conventional IgM RF and anti-CCP2 might be informative in non-Caucasian RA populations.
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| 20. |
- Åhlin, Erik, 1980-, et al.
(författare)
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Occurrence of rheumatoid arthritis-associated autoantibodies in Sudanese patients with Leishmania donovani infection
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Objective Our aim with this investigation was to evaluate the occurrence of anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies (anti-CCP), rheumatoid factor (RF) and circulating immune complexes (IC) in Sudanese patients infected with Leishmania donovani parasite. Methods Serum samples were collected from Leishmania infected patients and healthy Sudanese controls. Sudanese anti-CCP positive RA patients were included as positive controls. Data from all analyses were also compared with Swedish healthy control cohorts. Levels of circulating IC and anti-CCP were measured using ELISA and RF using nephelometry. A control plate with cyclic control peptides containing arginine instead of citrulline was used to evaluate citrulline specific reactivity. Results We demonstrate that sera from Leishmania infected patients are often RF positive, have elevated IC levels and that a substantial number exhibit antibody reactivity towards CCP. However, contrary to what was evident the in Sudanese RA sera, the CCP reactivity was not restricted to citrulline but reacted equally well with the arginine control peptide. Conclusions Our findings stress the importance to interpret a positive CCP test carefully when evaluated in non-rheumatic conditions.
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