| 1. |
- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 2. |
- Feigin, Valery L, et al.
(författare)
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Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016.
- 2018
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Ingår i: The New England journal of medicine. - 1533-4406 .- 0028-4793. ; 379:25, s. 2429-2437
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).
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| 3. |
- Kamiyama, S., et al.
(författare)
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Extremely high quantum efficiency of donor-acceptor-pair emission in N-and-B-doped 6H-SiC
- 2006
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Physics. - : AIP Publishing. - 0021-8979 .- 1089-7550. ; 99:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- High-efficiency visible light emission in N-and-B-doped 6H-SiC epilayers was observed in photoluminescence measurements at room temperature. The orange-yellow light emission due to the recombination of donor-acceptor pairs (DAPs) has a broad spectrum with a peak wavelength of 576 nm and a full width at half maximum of 110 nm at 250 K. The high B concentration of more than 1018 cm-3 improves the emission efficiency of the DAP recombination at a high temperature. Compared with the photoluminescence spectrum of GaN at 10 K, a high quantum efficiency of 95% was estimated for the highly B-doped sample. From time-resolved photoluminescence measurements, a DAP recombination time of 5.0 ms was obtained, which is in good agreement with the calculated value by the rate equation with the assumption of a 95% internal quantum efficiency. This is quite promising as a light-emitting medium by optical pumping, as well as monolithic light sources combined with nitride-based light-emitting diodes grown on the DA-doped SiC epilayer. © 2006 American Institute of Physics.
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| 4. |
- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 5. |
- Gao, H, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic variation in CDH13 is associated with lower plasma adiponectin levels but greater adiponectin sensitivity in East Asian populations
- 2013
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Ingår i: Diabetes. - : American Diabetes Association. - 1939-327X .- 0012-1797. ; 62:12, s. 4277-4283
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Variants in the CDH13 gene have been identified as determinants of blood levels of adiponectin, an insulin-sensitizing adipokine. However, their association with other metabolic risk factors remains unclear. We examined variants at CDH13 in relation to total and high-molecular-weight (HMW) adiponectin using data from a genome-wide association study performed in 2,434 Singaporean Chinese with replication in up to 3,290 Japanese and 1,610 Koreans. The top signal rs4783244 in CDH13 showed strong associations with total adiponectin (standardized β [β] = −0.34, 95% CI −0.38 to −0.30, P = 2.0 × 10−70), HMW adiponectin (β = −0.40, 95% CI −0.43 to −0.36, P = 1.1 × 10−117), and the HMW-to-total adiponectin ratio (β = −0.44, 95% CI −0.49 to −0.40, P = 3.2 × 10−83). In the replication study, this single nucleotide polymorphism explained 4.1% of total and 6.5% of HMW adiponectin levels. No association was observed between rs4783244 and metabolic traits associated with insulin resistance before adjustment for HMW adiponectin levels. After adjustment for HMW adiponectin levels, the minor allele was associated with lower BMI (β = −0.15, 95% CI −0.19 to −0.11, P = 3.5 × 10−14), homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance index (β = −0.16, 95% CI −0.20 to −0.12, P = 9.2 × 10−16), and triglycerides (β = −0.16, 95% CI −0.19 to −0.12, P = 1.3 × 10−16) and with higher HDL (β = 0.16, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.19, P = 2.1 × 10−17). CDH13 variants strongly influence plasma total and HMW adiponectin levels in East Asian populations but appear to alter adiponectin sensitivity, resulting in better metabolic health than expected based on circulating adiponectin levels.
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| 6. |
- Sarno, Giovanna, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of body mass index on the five-year outcome of patients having percutaneous coronary interventions with drug-eluting stents
- 2011
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Ingår i: American Journal of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9149 .- 1879-1913. ; 108:2, s. 195-201
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of body mass index (BMI) on clinical outcome of patients treated by percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using drug-eluting stents. Patients were stratified according to BMI as normal (<25 kg/m2), overweight (25 to 30 kg/m2), or obese (>30 kg/m2). At 5-year follow-up all-cause death, myocardial infarction, clinically justified target vessel revascularization (TVR), and definite stent thrombosis were assessed. A complete dataset was available in 7,427 patients, of which 45%, 22%, and 33% were classified according to BMI as overweight, obese, and normal, respectively. Mean age of patients was significantly older in those with a normal BMI (p <0.05). Incidence of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and dyslipidemia increased as BMI increased (p <0.05). Significantly higher rates of TVR (15.3% vs 12.8%, p = 0.02) and early stent thrombosis (1.5% vs 0.9%, p = 0.04) were observed in the obese compared to the normal BMI group. No significant difference among the 3 BMI groups was observed for the composite of death/myocardial infarction/TVR or for definite stent thrombosis at 5 years, whereas the normal BMI group was at higher risk for all-cause death at 5 years (obese vs normal BMI, hazard ratio 0.74, confidence interval 0.53 to 0.99, p = 0.05; overweight vs normal BMI, hazard ratio 0.73, confidence interval 0.59 to 0.94, p = 0.01) in the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. Age resulted in a linearly dependent covariate with BMI in the all-cause 5-year mortality multivariate model (p = 0.001). In conclusion, the “obesity paradox” observed in 5-year all-cause mortality could be explained by the higher rate of elderly patients in the normal BMI group and the existence of colinearity between BMI and age. However, obese patients had a higher rate of TVR and early stent thrombosis and a higher rate of other risk factors such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia.
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