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- Blach, S., et al.
(författare)
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Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:5, s. 396-415
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age =0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI 0.7-0.9), corresponding to 56.8 million (95% UI 55.2-67.8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6.8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63.6 million (61.8-75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8-1.0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12.5-15.4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56.8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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- Bruggmann, P., et al.
(författare)
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Historical epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in selected countries
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Viral Hepatitis. - Hoboken : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1352-0504 .- 1365-2893. ; 21, s. 5-33
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading indicator for liver disease. New treatment options are becoming available, and there is a need to characterize the epidemiology and disease burden of HCV. Data for prevalence, viremia, genotype, diagnosis and treatment were obtained through literature searches and expert consensus for 16 countries. For some countries, data from centralized registries were used to estimate diagnosis and treatment rates. Data for the number of liver transplants and the proportion attributable to HCV were obtained from centralized databases. Viremic prevalence estimates varied widely between countries, ranging from 0.3% in Austria, England and Germany to 8.5% in Egypt. The largest viremic populations were in Egypt, with 6358000 cases in 2008 and Brazil with 2106000 cases in 2007. The age distribution of cases differed between countries. In most countries, prevalence rates were higher among males, reflecting higher rates of injection drug use. Diagnosis, treatment and transplant levels also differed considerably between countries. Reliable estimates characterizing HCV-infected populations are critical for addressing HCV-related morbidity and mortality. There is a need to quantify the burden of chronic HCV infection at the national level.
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- Razavi, H., et al.
(författare)
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The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Viral Hepatitis. - Hoboken : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1352-0504 .- 1365-2893. ; 21:Suppl. 1, s. 34-59
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is expected to increase as the infected population ages. A modelling approach was used to estimate the total number of viremic infections, diagnosed, treated and new infections in 2013. In addition, the model was used to estimate the change in the total number of HCV infections, the disease progression and mortality in 2013-2030. Finally, expert panel consensus was used to capture current treatment practices in each country. Using today's treatment paradigm, the total number of HCV infections is projected to decline or remain flat in all countries studied. However, in the same time period, the number of individuals with late-stage liver disease is projected to increase. This study concluded that the current treatment rate and efficacy are not sufficient to manage the disease burden of HCV. Thus, alternative strategies are required to keep the number of HCV individuals with advanced liver disease and liver-related deaths from increasing.
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- Wedemeyer, H., et al.
(författare)
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Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease burden
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Viral Hepatitis. - Hoboken : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1352-0504 .- 1365-2893. ; 21, s. 60-89
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections is projected to decline while those with advanced liver disease will increase. A modeling approach was used to forecast two treatment scenarios: (i) the impact of increased treatment efficacy while keeping the number of treated patients constant and (ii) increasing efficacy and treatment rate. This analysis suggests that successful diagnosis and treatment of a small proportion of patients can contribute significantly to the reduction of disease burden in the countries studied. The largest reduction in HCV-related morbidity and mortality occurs when increased treatment is combined with higher efficacy therapies, generally in combination with increased diagnosis. With a treatment rate of approximately 10%, this analysis suggests it is possible to achieve elimination of HCV (defined as a >90% decline in total infections by 2030). However, for most countries presented, this will require a 3-5 fold increase in diagnosis and/or treatment. Thus, building the public health and clinical provider capacity for improved diagnosis and treatment will be critical.
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- Razavi, H., et al.
(författare)
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Hepatitis C virus prevalence and level of intervention required to achieve the WHO targets for elimination in the European Union by 2030: a modelling study
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 2:5, s. 325-336
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the European Union (EU), treatment and cure of HCV with direct-acting antiviral therapies began in 2014. WHO targets are to achieve a 65% reduction in liver-related deaths, a 90% reduction of new viral hepatitis infections, and 90% of patients with viral hepatitis infections being diagnosed by 2030. This study assessed the prevalence of HCV in the EU and the level of intervention required to achieve WHO targets for HCV elimination. Methods We populated country Markov models for the 28 EU countries through a literature search of PubMed and Embase between Jan 1, 2000, and March 31, 2016, and a Delphi process to gain expert consensus and validate inputs. We aggregated country models to create a regional EU model. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) and developed a strategy to acehive WHO targets. We used weighted average sustained viral response rates and fibrosis restrictions to model the effect of current therapeutic guidelines. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) under current screening and therapeutic guidelines. Additionally, we back-calculated the total number of patients needing to be screened and treated to achieve WHO targets. Findings We estimated the number of viraemic HCV infections in 2015 to be 3 238 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2 106 000-3 795 000) of a total population of 509 868 000 in the EU, equating to a prevalence of viraemic HCV of 0.64% (95% UI 0.41-0.74). We estimated that 1 180 000 (95% UI 1 003 000-1 357 000) people were diagnosed with viraemia (36.4%), 150 000 (12 000-180 000) were treated (4.6% of the total infected population or 12.7% of the diagnosed population), 133 000 (106 000-160 000) were cured (4.1%), and 57 900 (43 900-67 300) were newly infected (1.8%) in 2015. Additionally, 30 400 (26 600-42 500) HCV-positive immigrants entered the EU. To achieve WHO targets, unrestricted treatment needs to increase from 150 000 patients in 2015 to 187 000 patients in 2025 and diagnosis needs to increase from 88 800 new cases annually in 2015 to 180 000 in 2025. Interpretation Given its advanced health-care infrastructure, the EU is uniquely poised to eliminate HCV; however, expansion of screening programmes is essential to increase treatment to achieve the WHO targets. A united effort, grounded in sound epidemiological evidence, will also be necessary.
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- Dalgard, O., et al.
(författare)
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Sofosbuvir based treatment of chronic hepatitis C genotype 3 infections-A Scandinavian real-life study
- 2017
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Ingår i: Plos One. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 12:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and aims Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 3 infection with advanced liver disease has emerged as the most challenging to treat. We retrospectively assessed the treatment outcome of sofosbuvir (SOF) based regimes for treatment of HCV genotype 3 infections in a real life setting in Scandinavia. Methods Consecutive patients with chronic HCV genotype 3 infection were enrolled at 16 treatment centers in Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland. Patients who had received a SOF containing regimen were included. The fibrosis stage was evaluated by liver biopsy or transient liver elastography. The following treatments were given according availability and local guidelines: 1) SOF + ribavirin (RBV) for 24 weeks, 2) SOF + daclatasvir (DCV) +/-RBV for 12-24 weeks, 3) SOF + pegylated interferon alpha (peg-IFN-a) + RBV for 12 weeks or 4) SOF/ledipasvir (LDV) + RBV for 12-16 weeks. The primary endpoint was sustained virological response (SVR) assessed at week 12 (SVR12) after end of treatment. Results We included 316 patients with a mean age of 55 years (range 24-79), 70% men, 49% treatment experienced, 58% with compensated cirrhosis and 12% with decompensated cirrhosis. In the modified intention to treat (mITT) population SVR12 was achieved in 284/311 91%) patients. Among 26 treatment failures, five had non-response, 3 breakthrough and 18 relapse. Five patients were not included in the mITT population. Three patients died from reasons unrelated to treatment and two were lost to follow-up. The SVR12 rate was similar for all treatment regimens, but lower in men (p = 0.042), and in patients with decompensated liver disease (p = 0.004). Conclusion We found that sofosbuvir based treatment in a real-life setting could offer SVR rates exceeding 90% in patients with HCV genotype 3 infection and advanced liver disease.
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- Nicoll, Rachel, et al.
(författare)
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The coronary calcium score is a more accurate predictor of significant coronary stenosis than conventional risk factors in symptomatic patients : Euro-CCAD study
- 2016
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Ingår i: International Journal of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0167-5273 .- 1874-1754. ; 207, s. 13-19
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: In this retrospective study we assessed the predictive value of the coronary calcium score for significant (>50%) stenosis relative to conventional risk factors. Methods and Results: We investigated 5515 symptomatic patients from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the USA. All had risk factor assessment, computed tomographic coronary angiogram (CTCA) or conventional angiography and a CT scan for coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring. 1539 (27.9%) patients had significant stenosis, 5.50 of whom had zero CAC. In 5074 patients, multiple binary regression showed the most important predictor of significant stenosis to be male gender (B = 1.07) followed by diabetes mellitus (B = 0.70) smoking, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension, family history of CAD and age but not obesity. When the log transformed CAC score was included, it became the most powerful predictor (B = 1.25), followed by male gender (B = 0.48), diabetes, smoking, family history and age but hypercholesterolaemia and hypertension lost significance. The CAC score is a more accurate predictor of >50% stenosis than risk factors regardless of the means of assessment of stenosis. The sensitivity of risk factors, CAC score and the combination for prediction of >50% stenosis when measured by conventional angiogram was considerably higher than when assessed by CTCA but the specificity was considerably higher when assessed by CTCA. The accuracy of CTCA for predicting >50% stenosis using the CAC score alone was higher (AUC 0.85) than using a combination of the CAC score and risk factors with conventional angiography (AUC 0.81). Conclusion: In symptomatic patients, the CAC score is a more accurate predictor of significant coronary stenosis than conventional risk factors.
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- Nicoll, Rachel, et al.
(författare)
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Diabetes and male gender are key risk factor predictors of CAC extent : a Euro-CCAD study
- 2016
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Background and aims: Although much has been written about the risk factor predictors of CAC extent, few studies have been carried out on symptomatic patients. Similarly, no study has directly compared predictors of CAC extent and zero CAC.Methods: From the European Calcific Coronary Artery Disease (Euro-CCAD) cohort, we retrospectively investigated 6309 symptomatic patients, 62% male, from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and USA. All had risk factor assessment and CT scanning for CAC scoring. Results: Among all patients, male gender (β = 1.36, p<0.001) and diabetes (β = 0.47, p<0.001) were the most important risk factors of CAC extent, with age, diabetes (DM), obesity, family history of CAD and number of risk factors also being predictive. Among patients with CAC, DM, hypertension (HT) and dyslipidaemia (DL) were predictors of an increasing CAC score in males and females, with DM being the strongest (p<0.001 for both). These results were echoed in quantile regression, where DM was consistently the most important predictor of CAC extent in every quantile in both males and females. HT and DL were also predictive but to a lesser extent, with HT being predictive in the high CAC quantiles and DL in the low CAC quantiles. Conclusion: In addition to male gender, DM is the most important predictor of CAC extent in both genders.
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- Nicoll, Rachel, et al.
(författare)
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Gender and age effects on risk factor-based prediction of coronary artery calcium in symptomatic patients : a Euro-CCAD study
- 2016
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Ingår i: Atherosclerosis. - : Elsevier. - 0021-9150 .- 1879-1484. ; 252, s. 32-39
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and aims: The influence of gender and age on risk factor prediction of coronary artery calcification (CAC) presence in symptomatic patients is unclear.Methods: From the European Calcific Coronary Artery Disease (EURO-CCAD) cohort, we retrospectively investigated 6309 symptomatic patients, 62% male, from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and USA. All had risk factor assessment and CT scanning for CAC scoring. Results: The prevalence of CAC among females was lower than among males in all age groups. Using multivariate logistic regression, age, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, diabetes and smoking were independently predictive of CAC presence in both genders. In addition to a progressive increase in CAC with age, the most important predictors of CAC presence were dyslipidaemia and diabetes (β = 0.64 and 0.63 respectively) in males and diabetes (β = 1.08) followed by smoking (β = 0.68) in females; these same risk factors were also important in predicting increasing CAC scores. There was no difference in the predictive ability of diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidaemia in either gender for CAC presence in patients aged <50 and 50-70 years. However, in patients aged >70, only dyslipidaemia predicted CAC presence in males and only smoking and diabetes were predictive in females. Conclusion: In symptomatic patients, there are significant differences in the ability of conventional risk factors to predict CAC presence between genders and between patients aged <70 and ≥70, indicating the important role of age in predicting CAC presence.
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