| 1. |
- Ahlberg, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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"Vi klimatforskare stödjer Greta och skolungdomarna"
- 2019
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Ingår i: Dagens nyheter (DN debatt). - 1101-2447.
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- DN DEBATT 15/3. Sedan industrialiseringens början har vi använt omkring fyra femtedelar av den mängd fossilt kol som får förbrännas för att vi ska klara Parisavtalet. Vi har bara en femtedel kvar och det är bråttom att kraftigt reducera utsläppen. Det har Greta Thunberg och de strejkande ungdomarna förstått. Därför stödjer vi deras krav, skriver 270 klimatforskare.
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| 2. |
- Bhatt, Uma S., et al.
(författare)
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Implications of Arctic Sea Ice Decline for the Earth System
- 2014
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Ingår i: Annual Review of Environment and Resources. - : Annual Reviews. - 1545-2050 .- 1543-5938. ; 39, s. 57-57
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Arctic sea ice decline has led to an amplification of surface warming and is projected to continue to decline from anthropogenic forcing, although the exact timing of ice-free summers is uncertain owing to large natural variability. Sea ice reductions affect surface heating patterns and the atmospheric pressure distribution, which may alter midlatitude extreme weather patterns. Increased light penetration and nutrient availability during spring from earlier ice breakup enhances primary production in the Arctic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas. Ice-obligate marine mammals may be losers, whereas seasonally migrant species may be winners from rapid sea ice decline. Tundra greening is occurring across most of the Arctic, driven primarily by warming temperatures, and is displaying complex spatial patterns that are likely tied to other factors. Sea ice changes are affecting greenhouse gas exchanges as well as halogen chemistry in the Arctic. This review highlights the heterogeneous nature of Arctic change, which is vital for researchers to better understand.
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| 3. |
- Box, Jason E., et al.
(författare)
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Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017
- 2019
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 14:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion that increasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near‐coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic biophysical system is now clearly trending away from its 20th Century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic. The indicator time series of this study are freely downloadable at AMAP.no.
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| 4. |
- Bruhwiler, Lori, et al.
(författare)
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The Arctic Carbon Cycle and Its Response to Changing Climate
- 2021
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Ingår i: Current Climate Change Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2198-6061. ; 7:1, s. 14-34
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose of Review: The Arctic has experienced the most rapid change in climate of anywhere on Earth, and these changes are certain to drive changes in the carbon budget of the Arctic as vegetation changes, soils warm, fires become more frequent, and wetlands evolve as permafrost thaws. In this study, we review the extensive evidence for Arctic climate change and effects on the carbon cycle. In addition, we re-evaluate some of the observational evidence for changing Arctic carbon budgets. Recent Findings: Observations suggest a more active CO2 cycle in high northern latitude ecosystems. Evidence points to increased uptake by boreal forests and Arctic ecosystems, as well as increasing respiration, especially in autumn. However, there is currently no strong evidence of increased CH4 emissions. Summary: Long-term observations using both bottom-up (e.g., flux) and top-down (atmospheric abundance) approaches are essential for understanding changing carbon cycle budgets. Consideration of atmospheric transport is critical for interpretation of top-down observations of atmospheric carbon.
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| 5. |
- Budishchev, A., et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of a plot-scale methane emission model using eddy covariance observations and footprint modelling
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4189. ; 11:17, s. 4651-4664
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Most plot-scale methane emission models - of which many have been developed in the recent past - are validated using data collected with the closed-chamber technique. This method, however, suffers from a low spatial representativeness and a poor temporal resolution. Also, during a chamber-flux measurement the air within a chamber is separated from the ambient atmosphere, which negates the influence of wind on emissions. Additionally, some methane models are validated by upscaling fluxes based on the area-weighted averages of modelled fluxes, and by comparing those to the eddy covariance (EC) flux. This technique is rather inaccurate, as the area of upscaling might be different from the EC tower footprint, therefore introducing significant mismatch. In this study, we present an approach to validate plot-scale methane models with EC observations using the footprint-weighted average method. Our results show that the fluxes obtained by the footprint-weighted average method are of the same magnitude as the EC flux. More importantly, the temporal dynamics of the EC flux on a daily timescale are also captured (r(2) = 0.7). In contrast, using the area-weighted average method yielded a low (r(2) = 0.14) correlation with the EC measurements. This shows that the footprint-weighted average method is preferable when validating methane emission models with EC fluxes for areas with a heterogeneous and irregular vegetation pattern.
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| 6. |
- Chadburn, Sarah E., et al.
(författare)
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Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes : using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models
- 2017
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 14:22, s. 5143-5169
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is important that climate models can accurately simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle in the Arctic due to the large and potentially labile carbon stocks found in permafrost-affected environments, which can lead to a positive climate feedback, along with the possibility of future carbon sinks from northward expansion of vegetation under climate warming. Here we evaluate the simulation of tundra carbon stocks and fluxes in three land surface schemes that each form part of major Earth system models (JSBACH, Germany; JULES, UK; ORCHIDEE, France). We use a site-level approach in which comprehensive, high-frequency datasets allow us to disentangle the importance of different processes. The models have improved physical permafrost processes and there is a reasonable correspondence between the simulated and measured physical variables, including soil temperature, soil moisture and snow. We show that if the models simulate the correct leaf area index (LAI), the standard C3 photosynthesis schemes produce the correct order of magnitude of carbon fluxes. Therefore, simulating the correct LAI is one of the first priorities. LAI depends quite strongly on climatic variables alone, as we see by the fact that the dynamic vegetation model can simulate most of the differences in LAI between sites, based almost entirely on climate inputs. However, we also identify an influence from nutrient limitation as the LAI becomes too large at some of the more nutrient-limited sites. We conclude that including moss as well as vascular plants is of primary importance to the carbon budget, as moss contributes a large fraction to the seasonal CO2 flux in nutrient-limited conditions. Moss photosynthetic activity can be strongly influenced by the moisture content of moss, and the carbon uptake can be significantly different from vascular plants with a similar LAI. The soil carbon stocks depend strongly on the rate of input of carbon from the vegetation to the soil, and our analysis suggests that an improved simulation of photosynthesis would also lead to an improved simulation of soil carbon stocks. However, the stocks are also influenced by soil carbon burial (e.g. through cryoturbation) and the rate of heterotrophic respiration, which depends on the soil physical state. More detailed below-ground measurements are needed to fully evaluate biological and physical soil processes. Furthermore, even if these processes are well modelled, the soil carbon profiles cannot resemble peat layers as peat accumulation processes are not represented in the models. Thus, we identify three priority areas for model development: (1) dynamic vegetation including (a) climate and (b) nutrient limitation effects; (2) adding moss as a plant functional type; and an (3) improved vertical profile of soil carbon including peat processes.
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| 7. |
- Chadburn, Sarah E., et al.
(författare)
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Modeled Microbial Dynamics Explain the Apparent Temperature Sensitivity of Wetland Methane Emissions
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 34:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methane emissions from natural wetlands tend to increase with temperature and therefore may lead to a positive feedback under future climate change. However, their temperature response includes confounding factors and appears to differ on different time scales. Observed methane emissions depend strongly on temperature on a seasonal basis, but if the annual mean emissions are compared between sites, there is only a small temperature effect. We hypothesize that microbial dynamics are a major driver of the seasonal cycle and that they can explain this apparent discrepancy. We introduce a relatively simple model of methanogenic growth and dormancy into a wetland methane scheme that is used in an Earth system model. We show that this addition is sufficient to reproduce the observed seasonal dynamics of methane emissions in fully saturated wetland sites, at the same time as reproducing the annual mean emissions. We find that a more complex scheme used in recent Earth system models does not add predictive power. The sites used span a range of climatic conditions, with the majority in high latitudes. The difference in apparent temperature sensitivity seasonally versus spatially cannot be recreated by the non-microbial schemes tested. We therefore conclude that microbial dynamics are a strong candidate to be driving the seasonal cycle of wetland methane emissions. We quantify longer-term temperature sensitivity using this scheme and show that it gives approximately a 12% increase in emissions per degree of warming globally. This is in addition to any hydrological changes, which could also impact future methane emissions.
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| 8. |
- Christensen, Torben Røjle, et al.
(författare)
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Tracing the climate signal : mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase
- 2019
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 9:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Natural methane emissions are noticeably influenced by warming of cold arctic ecosystems and permafrost. An evaluation specifically of Arctic natural methane emissions in relation to our ability to mitigate anthropogenic methane emissions is needed. Here we use empirical scenarios of increases in natural emissions together with maximum technically feasible reductions in anthropogenic emissions to evaluate their potential influence on future atmospheric methane concentrations and associated radiative forcing (RF). The largest amplification of natural emissions yields up to 42% higher atmospheric methane concentrations by the year 2100 compared with no change in natural emissions. The most likely scenarios are lower than this, while anthropogenic emission reductions may have a much greater yielding effect, with the potential of halving atmospheric methane concentrations by 2100 compared to when anthropogenic emissions continue to increase as in a business-as-usual case. In a broader perspective, it is shown that man-made emissions can be reduced sufficiently to limit methane-caused climate warming by 2100 even in the case of an uncontrolled natural Arctic methane emission feedback, but this requires a committed, global effort towards maximum feasible reductions.
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| 9. |
- Dengel, S., et al.
(författare)
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Testing the applicability of neural networks as a gap-filling method using CH4 flux data from high latitude wetlands
- 2013
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4189. ; 10, s. 8185-8200
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Since the advancement in CH4 gas analyser technology and its applicability to eddy covariance flux measurements, monitoring of CH4 emissions is becoming more widespread. In order to accurately determine the greenhouse gas balance, high quality gap-free data is required. Currently there is still no consensus on CH4 gap-filling methods, and methods applied are still study-dependent and often carried out on low resolution, daily data. In the current study, we applied artificial neural networks to six distinctively different CH4 time series from high latitudes, explain the method and test its functionality. We discuss the applicability of neural networks in CH4 flux studies, the advantages and disadvantages of this method, and what information we were able to extract from such models. Three different approaches were tested by including drivers such as air and soil temperature, barometric air pressure, solar radiation, wind direction (indicator of source location) and in addition the lagged effect of water table depth and precipitation. In keeping with the principle of parsimony, we included up to five of these variables traditionally measured at CH4 flux measurement sites. Fuzzy sets were included representing the seasonal change and time of day. High Pearson correlation coefficients (r) of up to 0.97 achieved in the final analysis are indicative for the high performance of neural networks and their applicability as a gap-filling method for CH4 flux data time series. This novel approach which we show to be appropriate for CH4 fluxes is a step towards standardising CH4 gap-filling protocols.
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| 10. |
- Euskirchen, Eugénie S., et al.
(författare)
-
Current knowledge and uncertainties associated with the Arctic greenhouse gas budget
- 2022
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Ingår i: Balancing Greenhouse Gas Budgets : Accounting for Natural and Anthropogenic Flows of CO2 and other Trace Gases - Accounting for Natural and Anthropogenic Flows of CO2 and other Trace Gases. - 9780128149539 - 9780128149522 ; , s. 159-201
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- • The Arctic is continuing to warm faster than any other region on Earth, but key uncertainties remain in our knowledge of the Arctic carbon cycle. • We review the most current knowledge pertaining to estimates of arctic greenhouse gas components and discuss uncertainties associated with these measurements and models. • While the Arctic Ocean is consistently estimated as a carbon sink, we have yet to reach an agreement on either the magnitude or the sign of the arctic terrestrial carbon budget. • Much of the uncertainty in the arctic carbon budget is related to the extent of the amount of carbon released as permafrost thaws, the magnitude of shoulder season and winter ecosystem respiration, and the impact of rising temperature and atmospheric [CO2] on plant growth. • We cannot count on the Arctic to store as much carbon as it has in the past, and evidence indicates it will likely store much less.
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| 11. |
- Jammet, Mathilde, et al.
(författare)
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Year-round CH4 and CO2 flux dynamics in two contrasting freshwater ecosystems of the subarctic
- 2017
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 14:22, s. 5189-5216
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lakes and wetlands, common ecosystems of the high northern latitudes, exchange large amounts of the climate-forcing gases methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) with the atmosphere. The magnitudes of these fluxes and the processes driving them are still uncertain, particularly for subarctic and Arctic lakes where direct measurements of CH4 and CO2 emissions are often of low temporal resolution and are rarely sustained throughout the entire year. Using the eddy covariance method, we measured surface-atmosphere exchange of CH4 and CO2 during 2.5 years in a thawed fen and a shallow lake of a subarctic peatland complex. Gas exchange at the fen exhibited the expected seasonality of a subarctic wetland with maximum CH4 emissions and CO2 uptake in summer, as well as low but continuous emissions of CH4 and CO2 throughout the snow-covered winter. The seasonality of lake fluxes differed, with maximum CO2 and CH4 flux rates recorded at spring thaw. During the ice-free seasons, we could identify surface CH4 emissions as mostly ebullition events with a seasonal trend in the magnitude of the release, while a net CO2 flux indicated photosynthetic activity. We found correlations between surface CH4 emissions and surface sediment temperature, as well as between diel CO2 uptake and diel solar input. During spring, the breakdown of thermal stratification following ice thaw triggered the degassing of both CH4 and CO2. This spring burst was observed in 2 consecutive years for both gases, with a large inter-annual variability in the magnitude of the CH4 degassing. On the annual scale, spring emissions converted the lake from a small CO2 sink to a CO2 source: 80% of total annual carbon emissions from the lake were emitted as CO2. The annual total carbon exchange per unit area was highest at the fen, which was an annual sink of carbon with respect to the atmosphere. Continuous respiration during the winter partly counteracted the fen summer sink by accounting for, as both CH4 and CO2, 33% of annual carbon exchange. Our study shows (1) the importance of overturn periods (spring or fall) for the annual CH4 and CO2 emissions of northern lakes, (2) the significance of lakes as atmospheric carbon sources in subarctic landscapes while fens can be a strong carbon sink, and (3) the potential for ecosystem-scale eddy covariance measurements to improve the understanding of short-term processes driving lake-atmosphere exchange of CH4 and CO2.
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| 12. |
- Keetz, Lasse T., et al.
(författare)
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Climate–ecosystem modelling made easy : The Land Sites Platform
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - 1354-1013. ; 29:15, s. 4440-4452
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) provide a state-of-the-art process-based approach to study the complex interplay between vegetation and its physical environment. For example, they help to predict how terrestrial plants interact with climate, soils, disturbance and competition for resources. We argue that there is untapped potential for the use of DGVMs in ecological and ecophysiological research. One fundamental barrier to realize this potential is that many researchers with relevant expertize (ecology, plant physiology, soil science, etc.) lack access to the technical resources or awareness of the research potential of DGVMs. Here we present the Land Sites Platform (LSP): new software that facilitates single-site simulations with the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, an advanced DGVM coupled with the Community Land Model. The LSP includes a Graphical User Interface and an Application Programming Interface, which improve the user experience and lower the technical thresholds for installing these model architectures and setting up model experiments. The software is distributed via version-controlled containers; researchers and students can run simulations directly on their personal computers or servers, with relatively low hardware requirements, and on different operating systems. Version 1.0 of the LSP supports site-level simulations. We provide input data for 20 established geo-ecological observation sites in Norway and workflows to add generic sites from public global datasets. The LSP makes standard model experiments with default data easily achievable (e.g., for educational or introductory purposes) while retaining flexibility for more advanced scientific uses. We further provide tools to visualize the model input and output, including simple examples to relate predictions to local observations. The LSP improves access to land surface and DGVM modelling as a building block of community cyberinfrastructure that may inspire new avenues for mechanistic ecosystem research across disciplines.
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| 13. |
- Keuper, Frida, et al.
(författare)
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Tundra in the rain : Differential vegetation responses to three years of experimentally doubled summer precipitation in Siberian shrub and Swedish bog tundra
- 2012
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Netherlands. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 41:Suppl. 3, s. 269-280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Precipitation amounts and patterns at high latitude sites have been predicted to change as a result of global climatic changes. We addressed vegetation responses to three years of experimentally increased summer precipitation in two previously unaddressed tundra types: Betula nana-dominated shrub tundra (northeast Siberia) and a dry Sphagnum fuscum-dominated bog (northern Sweden). Positive responses to approximately doubled ambient precipitation (an increase of 200 mm year(-1)) were observed at the Siberian site, for B. nana (30 % larger length increments), Salix pulchra (leaf size and length increments) and Arctagrostis latifolia (leaf size and specific leaf area), but none were observed at the Swedish site. Total biomass production did not increase at either of the study sites. This study corroborates studies in other tundra vegetation types and shows that despite regional differences at the plant level, total tundra plant productivity is, at least at the short or medium term, largely irresponsive to experimentally increased summer precipitation.
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| 14. |
- Lambert, Marius S.A., et al.
(författare)
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Inclusion of a cold hardening scheme to represent frost tolerance is essential to model realistic plant hydraulics in the Arctic-boreal zone in CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro
- 2022
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 15:23, s. 8809-8829
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As temperatures decrease in autumn, vegetation of temperate and boreal ecosystems increases its tolerance to freezing. This process, known as hardening, results in a set of physiological changes at the molecular level that initiate modifications of cell membrane composition and the synthesis of anti-freeze proteins. Together with the freezing of extracellular water, anti-freeze proteins reduce plant water potentials and xylem conductivity. To represent the responses of vegetation to climate change, land surface schemes increasingly employ "hydrodynamic"models that represent the explicit fluxes of water from soil and through plants. The functioning of such schemes under frozen soil conditions, however, is poorly understood. Nonetheless, hydraulic processes are of major importance in the dynamics of these systems, which can suffer from, e.g., winter "frost drought"events. In this study, we implement a scheme that represents hardening into CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro. FATES-Hydro is a plant hydrodynamics module in FATES, a cohort model of vegetation physiology, growth, and dynamics hosted in CLM5.0. We find that, in frozen systems, it is necessary to introduce reductions in plant water loss associated with hardening to prevent winter desiccation. This work makes it possible to use CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro to model realistic impacts from frost droughts on vegetation growth and photosynthesis, leading to more reliable projections of how northern ecosystems respond to climate change.
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| 15. |
- Lambert, Marius S.A., et al.
(författare)
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Integration of a Frost Mortality Scheme Into the Demographic Vegetation Model FATES
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. - 1942-2466. ; 15:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Frost is damaging to plants when air temperature drops below their tolerance threshold. The set of mechanisms used by cold-tolerant plants to withstand freezing is called “hardening” and typically take place in autumn to protect against winter damage. The recent incorporation of a hardening scheme in the demographic vegetation model FATES opens up the possibility to investigate frost mortality to vegetation. Previously, the hardening scheme was used to improve hydraulic processes in cold-tolerant plants. In this study, we expand upon the existing hardening scheme by implementing hardiness-dependent frost mortality into CLM5.0-FATES to study the impacts of frost on vegetation in temperate and boreal sites from 1950 to 2015. Our results show that the original freezing mortality approach of FATES, where each plant type had a fixed freezing tolerance threshold—an approach common to many other dynamic vegetation models, was restricted to predicting plant type distribution. The main results emerging from the new scheme are a high autumn and spring frost mortality, especially at colder sites, and increasing mid-winter frost mortality due to global warming, especially at warmer sites. We demonstrate that the new frost scheme is a major step forward in dynamically representing vegetation in ESMs by for the first time including a level of frost tolerance that is responding to the environment and includes some level of cost (implicitly) and benefit. By linking hardening and frost mortality in a land surface model, we open new ways to explore the impact of frost events in the context of global warming.
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| 16. |
- Lund, Magnus, et al.
(författare)
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Low impact of dry conditions on the CO2 exchange of a Northern-Norwegian blanket bog
- 2015
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 10:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Northern peatlands hold large amounts of organic carbon (C) in their soils and are as such important in a climate change context. Blanket bogs, i.e. nutrient-poor peatlands restricted to maritime climates, may be extra vulnerable to global warming since they require a positive water balance to sustain their moss dominated vegetation and C sink functioning. This study presents a 4.5 year record of land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange from the Andoya blanket bog in northern Norway. Compared with other peatlands, the Andoya peatland exhibited low flux rates, related to the low productivity of the dominating moss and lichen communities and the maritime settings that attenuated seasonal temperature variations. It was observed that under periods of high vapour pressure deficit, net ecosystem exchange was reduced, which was mainly caused by a decrease in gross primary production. However, no persistent effects of dry conditions on the CO2 exchange dynamics were observed, indicating that under present conditions and within the range of observed meteorological conditions the Andoya blanket bog retained its C uptake function. Continued monitoring of these ecosystem types is essential in order to detect possible effects of a changing climate.
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| 17. |
- Mbufong, H. N., et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the spatial variability in peak season CO2 exchange characteristics across the Arctic tundra using a light response curve parameterization
- 2014
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4189. ; 11:17, s. 4897-4912
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper aims to assess the spatial variability in the response of CO2 exchange to irradiance across the Arctic tundra during peak season using light response curve (LRC) parameters. This investigation allows us to better understand the future response of Arctic tundra under climatic change. Peak season data were collected during different years (between 1998 and 2010) using the micrometeorological eddy covariance technique from 12 circumpolar Arctic tundra sites, in the range of 64-74 degrees N. The LRCs were generated for 14 days with peak net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using an NEE-irradiance model. Parameters from LRCs represent site-specific traits and characteristics describing the following: (a) NEE at light saturation (F-csat), (b) dark respiration (Rd), (c) light use efficiency (alpha), (d) NEE when light is at 1000 mu molm(-2) s(-1) (F-c1000), (e) potential photosynthesis at light saturation (P-sat) and (f) the light compensation point (LCP). Parameterization of LRCs was successful in predicting CO2 flux dynamics across the Arctic tundra. We did not find any trends in LRC parameters across the whole Arctic tundra but there were indications for temperature and latitudinal differences within sub-regions like Russia and Greenland. Together, leaf area index (LAI) and July temperature had a high explanatory power of the variance in assimilation parameters (F-csat, F-c1000 and P-sat), thus illustrating the potential for upscaling CO2 exchange for the whole Arctic tundra. Dark respiration was more variable and less correlated to environmental drivers than were assimilation parameters. This indicates the inherent need to include other parameters such as nutrient availability, substrate quantity and quality in flux monitoring activities.
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| 18. |
- Mi, Y., et al.
(författare)
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Improving a plot-scale methane emission model and its performance at a northeastern Siberian tundra site
- 2014
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4189. ; 11:14, s. 3985-3999
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In order to better address the feedbacks between climate and wetland methane (CH4) emissions, we tested several mechanistic improvements to the wetland CH4 emission model Peatland-VU with a longer Arctic data set than any other model: (1) inclusion of an improved hydrological module, (2) incorporation of a gross primary productivity (GPP) module, and (3) a more realistic soil-freezing scheme. A long time series of field measurements (2003-2010) from a tundra site in northeastern Siberia is used to validate the model, and the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology is used to test the sensitivity of model parameters. Peatland-VU is able to capture both the annual magnitude and seasonal variations of the CH4 flux, water table position, and soil thermal properties. However, detailed daily variations are difficult to evaluate due to data limitation. Improvements due to the inclusion of a GPP module are less than anticipated, although this component is likely to become more important at larger spatial scales because the module can accommodate the variations in vegetation traits better than at plot scale. Sensitivity experiments suggest that the methane production rate factor, the methane plant oxidation parameter, the reference temperature for temperature-dependent decomposition, and the methane plant transport rate factor are the most important parameters affecting the data fit, regardless of vegetation type. Both wet and dry vegetation cover are sensitive to the minimum water table level; the former is also sensitive to the runoff threshold and open water correction factor, and the latter to the subsurface water evaporation and evapotranspiration correction factors. These results shed light on model parameterization and future improvement of CH4 modelling. However, high spatial variability of CH4 emissions within similar vegetation/soil units and data quality prove to impose severe limits on model testing and improvement.
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| 19. |
- Myers-Smith, Isla H., et al.
(författare)
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Complexity revealed in the greening of the Arctic
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 10:2, s. 106-117
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the Arctic warms, vegetation is responding, and satellite measures indicate widespread greening at high latitudes. This ‘greening of the Arctic’ is among the world’s most important large-scale ecological responses to global climate change. However, a consensus is emerging that the underlying causes and future dynamics of so-called Arctic greening and browning trends are more complex, variable and inherently scale-dependent than previously thought. Here we summarize the complexities of observing and interpreting high-latitude greening to identify priorities for future research. Incorporating satellite and proximal remote sensing with in-situ data, while accounting for uncertainties and scale issues, will advance the study of past, present and future Arctic vegetation change.
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| 20. |
- Natali, S. M., et al.
(författare)
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Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 9:11, s. 852-857
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter(1-3), greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)(4). However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates(5,6). Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October-April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5-and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.
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| 21. |
- Olefeldt, David, et al.
(författare)
-
The Boreal-Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD)
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus Gesellschaft MBH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 13:11, s. 5127-5149
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methane emissions from boreal and arctic wetlands, lakes, and rivers are expected to increase in response to warming and associated permafrost thaw. However, the lack of appropriate land cover datasets for scaling field-measured methane emissions to circumpolar scales has contributed to a large uncertainty for our understanding of present-day and future methane emissions. Here we present the BorealArctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD), a land cover dataset based on an expert assessment, extrapolated using random forest modelling from available spatial datasets of climate, topography, soils, permafrost conditions, vegetation, wetlands, and surface water extents and dynamics. In BAWLD, we estimate the fractional coverage of five wetland, seven lake, and three river classes within 0.5 x 0.5 degrees grid cells that cover the northern boreal and tundra biomes (17 % of the global land surface). Land cover classes were defined using criteria that ensured distinct methane emissions among classes, as indicated by a co-developed comprehensive dataset of methane flux observations. In BAWLD, wetlands occupied 3.2 x 10(6) km(2) (14 % of domain) with a 95 % confidence interval between 2.8 and 3.8 x 10(6) km(2). Bog, fen, and permafrost bog were the most abundant wetland classes, covering similar to 28 % each of the total wetland area, while the highest-methane-emitting marsh and tundra wetland classes occupied 5 % and 12 %, respectively. Lakes, defined to include all lentic open-water ecosystems regardless of size, covered 1.4 x 10(6) km(2) (6 % of domain). Low-methane-emitting large lakes (>10 km(2)) and glacial lakes jointly represented 78 % of the total lake area, while high-emitting peatland and yedoma lakes covered 18 % and 4 %, respectively. Small (<0.1 km(2)) glacial, peatland, and yedoma lakes combined covered 17 % of the total lake area but contributed disproportionally to the overall spatial uncertainty in lake area with a 95 % confidence interval between 0.15 and 0.38 x 10(6) km(2). Rivers and streams were estimated to cover 0.12 x 10(6) km(2) (0.5 % of domain), of which 8 % was associated with high-methane-emitting headwaters that drain organic-rich landscapes. Distinct combinations of spatially co-occurring wetland and lake classes were identified across the BAWLD domain, allowing for the mapping of "wetscapes" that have characteristic methane emission magnitudes and sensitivities to climate change at regional scales. With BAWLD, we provide a dataset which avoids double-accounting of wetland, lake, and river extents and which includes confidence intervals for each land cover class. As such, BAWLD will be suitable for many hydrological and biogeochemical modelling and upscaling efforts for the northern boreal and arctic region, in particular those aimed at improving assessments of current and future methane emissions.
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| 22. |
- Parmentier, Frans-Jan, et al.
(författare)
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Arctic: speed of methane release
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Nature. - 0028-0836. ; 500:7464, s. 529-529
-
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 23. |
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| 24. |
- Parmentier, Frans-Jan, et al.
(författare)
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Longer growing seasons do not increase net carbon uptake in the northeastern Siberian tundra
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research. - 2156-2202. ; 116, s. 04013-04013
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With global warming, snowmelt is occurring earlier and growing seasons are becoming longer around the Arctic. It has been suggested that this would lead to more uptake of carbon due to a lengthening of the period in which plants photosynthesize. To investigate this suggestion, 8 consecutive years of eddy covariance measurements at a northeastern Siberian graminoid tundra site were investigated for patterns in net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R-eco). While GPP showed no clear increase with longer growing seasons, it was significantly increased in warmer summers. Due to these warmer temperatures however, the increase in uptake was mostly offset by an increase in R-eco. Therefore, overall variability in net carbon uptake was low, and no relationship with growing season length was found. Furthermore, the highest net uptake of carbon occurred with the shortest and the coldest growing season. Low uptake of carbon mostly occurred with longer or warmer growing seasons. We thus conclude that the net carbon uptake of this ecosystem is more likely to decrease rather than to increase under a warmer climate. These results contradict previous research that has showed more net carbon uptake with longer growing seasons. We hypothesize that this difference is due to site-specific differences, such as climate type and soil, and that changes in the carbon cycle with longer growing seasons will not be uniform around the Arctic.
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| 25. |
- Parmentier, Frans-Jan
(författare)
-
Permafrost: den sovende klimakjempen
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Naturen. - : Scandinavian University Press / Universitetsforlaget AS. - 1504-3118 .- 0028-0887. ; 145:5, s. 230-235
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- SammendragI Arktis er en klimakjempe i ferd med å våkne sakte, men sikkert fra sin lange dvale: Permafrosten – grunn som kan ha vært frosset i tusenvis av år – begynner flere steder å tine på grunn av de sterkt økende temperaturene (Box m.fl. 2019). Dette kan gjøre klimaproblemet enda verre enn det allerede er, fordi det kan føre til store utslipp av drivhusgasser som CO2 og metan (CH4). Når det skjer, varmes klimaet opp enda mer, som gjør at mer permafrost tiner, slik at flere drivhusgasser igjen slipper ut – og så videre. En selvforsterkende effekt med andre ord, og et mulig vippepunkt i klimasystemet. Men hvor stor er sjansen for at dette virkelig vil skje, og hvordan er det i det hele tatt mulig at drivhusgasser slipper ut i det høye nord?
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| 26. |
- Parmentier, Frans-Jan, et al.
(författare)
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Rising methane emissions from northern wetlands associated with sea ice decline
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 1944-8007. ; 42:17, s. 7214-7222
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Arctic is rapidly transitioning toward a seasonal sea ice-free state, perhaps one of the most apparent examples of climate change in the world. This dramatic change has numerous consequences, including a large increase in air temperatures, which in turn may affect terrestrial methane emissions. Nonetheless, terrestrial and marine environments are seldom jointly analyzed. By comparing satellite observations of Arctic sea ice concentrations to methane emissions simulated by three process-based biogeochemical models, this study shows that rising wetland methane emissions are associated with sea ice retreat. Our analyses indicate that simulated high-latitude emissions for 2005-2010 were, on average, 1.7 Tg CH4 yr(-1) higher compared to 1981-1990 due to a sea ice-induced, autumn-focused, warming. Since these results suggest a continued rise in methane emissions with future sea ice decline, observation programs need to include measurements during the autumn to further investigate the impact of this spatial connection on terrestrial methane emissions.
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| 27. |
- Parmentier, Frans-Jan, et al.
(författare)
-
Spatial and temporal dynamics in eddy covariance observations of methane fluxes at a tundra site in northeastern Siberia
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research. - 2156-2202. ; 116, s. 03016-03016
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the past two decades, the eddy covariance technique has been used for an increasing number of methane flux studies at an ecosystem scale. Previously, most of these studies used a closed path setup with a tunable diode laser spectrometer (TDL). Although this method worked well, the TDL has to be calibrated regularly and cooled with liquid nitrogen or a cryogenic system, which limits its use in remote areas. Recently, a new closed path technique has been introduced that uses off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy that does not require regular calibration or liquid nitrogen to operate and can thus be applied in remote areas. In the summer of 2008 and 2009, this eddy covariance technique was used to study methane fluxes from a tundra site in northeastern Siberia. The measured emissions showed to be very dependent on the fetch area, due to a large contrast in dry and wet vegetation in between wind directions. Furthermore, the observed short-and long-term variation of methane fluxes could be readily explained with a nonlinear model that used relationships with atmospheric stability, soil temperature, and water level. This model was subsequently extended to fieldwork periods preceding the eddy covariance setup and applied to evaluate a spatially integrated flux. The model result showed that average fluxes were 56.5, 48.7, and 30.4 nmol CH4 m(-2) s(-1) for the summers of 2007 to 2009. While previous models of the same type were only applicable to daily averages, the method described can be used on a much higher temporal resolution, making it suitable for gap filling. Furthermore, by partitioning the measured fluxes along wind direction, this model can also be used in areas with nonuniform terrain but nonetheless provide spatially integrated fluxes.
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| 28. |
- Parmentier, Frans-Jan, et al.
(författare)
-
The impact of lower sea-ice extent on Arctic greenhouse-gas exchange
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - 1758-6798. ; 3:3, s. 195-202
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In September 2012, Arctic sea-ice extent plummeted to a new record low: two times lower than the 1979-2000 average. Often, record lows in sea-ice cover are hailed as an example of climate change impacts in the Arctic. Less apparent, however, are the implications of reduced sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean for marine-atmosphere CO2 exchange. Sea-ice decline has been connected to increasing air temperatures at high latitudes. Temperature is a key controlling factor in the terrestrial exchange of CO2 and methane, and therefore the greenhouse-gas balance of the Arctic. Despite the large potential for feedbacks, many studies do not connect the diminishing sea-ice extent with changes in the interaction of the marine and terrestrial Arctic with the atmosphere. In this Review, we assess how current understanding of the Arctic Ocean and high-latitude ecosystems can be used to predict the impact of a lower sea-ice cover on Arctic greenhouse-gas exchange.
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| 29. |
- Parmentier, Frans-Jan, et al.
(författare)
-
The role of endophytic methane-oxidizing bacteria in submerged Sphagnum in determining methane emissions of Northeastern Siberian tundra
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4189. ; 8:5, s. 1267-1278
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The role of the microbial processes governing methane emissions from tundra ecosystems is receiving increasing attention. Recently, cooperation between methanotrophic bacteria and submerged Sphagnum was shown to reduce methane emissions but also to supply CO2 for photosynthesis for the plant. Although this process was shown to be important in the laboratory, the differences that exist in methane emissions from inundated vegetation types with or without Sphagnum in the field have not been linked to these bacteria before. In this study, chamber flux measurements, an incubation study and a process model were used to investigate the drivers and controls on the relative difference in methane emissions between a submerged Sphagnum/sedge vegetation type and an inundated sedge vegetation type without Sphagnum. It was found that methane emissions in the Sphagnumdominated vegetation type were 50% lower than in the vegetation type without Sphagnum. A model sensitivity analysis showed that these differences could not sufficiently be explained by differences in methane production and plant transport. The model, combined with an incubation study, indicated that methane oxidation by endophytic bacteria, living in cooperation with submerged Sphagnum, plays a significant role in methane cycling at this site. This result is important for spatial upscaling as oxidation by these bacteria is likely involved in 15% of the net methane emissions at this tundra site. Our findings support the notion that methane-oxidizing bacteria are an important factor in understanding the processes behind methane emissions in tundra.
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| 30. |
- Parmentier, Frans Jan W., et al.
(författare)
-
A distributed time-lapse camera network to track vegetation phenology with high temporal detail and at varying scales
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 13:7, s. 3593-3606
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Near-surface remote sensing techniques are essential monitoring tools to provide spatial and temporal resolutions beyond the capabilities of orbital methods. This high level of detail is especially helpful to monitor specific plant communities and to accurately time the phenological stages of vegetation - which satellites can miss by days or weeks in frequently clouded areas such as the Arctic. In this paper, we describe a measurement network that is distributed across varying plant communities in the high Arctic valley of Adventdalen on the Svalbard archipelago with the aim of monitoring vegetation phenology. The network consists of 10 racks equipped with sensors that measure NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), soil temperature, and moisture as well as time-lapse RGB cameras (i.e. phenocams). Three additional time-lapse cameras are placed on nearby mountains to provide an overview of the valley. We derived the vegetation index GCC (green chromatic channel) from these RGB photos, which has similar applications as NDVI but at a fraction of the cost of NDVI imaging sensors. To create a robust time series for GCC, each set of photos was adjusted for unwanted movement of the camera with a stabilizing algorithm that enhances the spatial precision of these measurements. This code is available at 10.5281/zenodo.4554937 (Parmentier, 2021) and can be applied to time series obtained with other time-lapse cameras. This paper presents an overview of the data collection and processing and an overview of the dataset that is available at 10.21343/kbpq-xb91 (Nilsen et al., 2021). In addition, we provide some examples of how these data can be used to monitor different vegetation communities in the landscape.
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| 31. |
- Parmentier, Frans Jan W, et al.
(författare)
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A synthesis of the arctic terrestrial and marine carbon cycles under pressure from a dwindling cryosphere
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Ambio: a Journal of the Human Environment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447. ; 46, s. 53-69
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The current downturn of the arctic cryosphere, such as the strong loss of sea ice, melting of ice sheets and glaciers, and permafrost thaw, affects the marine and terrestrial carbon cycles in numerous interconnected ways. Nonetheless, processes in the ocean and on land have been too often considered in isolation while it has become increasingly clear that the two environments are strongly connected: Sea ice decline is one of the main causes of the rapid warming of the Arctic, and the flow of carbon from rivers into the Arctic Ocean affects marine processes and the air–sea exchange of CO2. This review, therefore, provides an overview of the current state of knowledge of the arctic terrestrial and marine carbon cycle, connections in between, and how this complex system is affected by climate change and a declining cryosphere. Ultimately, better knowledge of biogeochemical processes combined with improved model representations of ocean–land interactions are essential to accurately predict the development of arctic ecosystems and associated climate feedbacks.
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| 32. |
- Parmentier, Frans Jan W.
(författare)
-
Ocean-land interactions and the Arctic carbon cycle
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Routledge Handbook of the Polar Regions. - 9781138843998 - 9781317549574 - 9781315730639 ; , s. 478-491
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This chapter focuses on the Arctic since ocean-land interactions are more important for the Arctic than the Antarctic carbon cycle. It explores the complexity of connections between the ocean and land of the North Pole region, and possible impacts on greenhouse gas exchange and lateral carbon flows thereof. Ocean-land interactions in the Arctic integrate the terrestrial and marine environments. The Arctic is a source of methane and higher temperatures stimulate methane-producing microbes in the ground. Higher temperatures affect the terrestrial carbon cycle through altered plant productivity, increased respiration, and higher methane emissions. The impact of sea ice decline on the carbon cycle would be very dissimilar between the two regions due to diametric differences. While Antarctica is a frozen continent with little vegetation surrounded by ocean, the Arctic Ocean is a dynamic environment surrounded by land with vast expanses of vegetation, and an enormous amount of carbon locked away in the permafrost.
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| 33. |
- Parmentier, Frans Jan W., et al.
(författare)
-
Vulnerability and resilience of the carbon exchange of a subarctic peatland to an extreme winter event
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 13:6
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Extreme winter events that damage vegetation are considered an important climatic cause of arctic browning - a reversal of the greening trend of the region - and possibly reduce the carbon uptake of northern ecosystems. Confirmation of a reduction in CO2 uptake due to winter damage, however, remains elusive due to a lack of flux measurements from affected ecosystems. In this study, we report eddy covariance fluxes of CO2 from a peatland in northern Norway and show that vegetation CO2 uptake was delayed and reduced in the summer of 2014 following an extreme winter event earlier that year. Strong frost in the absence of a protective snow cover - its combined intensity unprecedented in the local climate record - caused severe dieback of the dwarf shrub species Calluna vulgaris and Empetrum nigrum. Similar vegetation damage was reported at the time along ∼1000 km of coastal Norway, showing the widespread impact of this event. Our results indicate that gross primary production (GPP) exhibited a delayed response to temperature following snowmelt. From snowmelt up to the peak of summer, this reduced carbon uptake by 14 (0-24) g C m-2 (∼12% of GPP in that period) - similar to the effect of interannual variations in summer weather. Concurrently, remotely-sensed NDVI dropped to the lowest level in more than a decade. However, bulk photosynthesis was eventually stimulated by the warm and sunny summer, raising total GPP. Species other than the vulnerable shrubs were probably resilient to the extreme winter event. The warm summer also increased ecosystem respiration, which limited net carbon uptake. This study shows that damage from a single extreme winter event can have an ecosystem-wide impact on CO2 uptake, and highlights the importance of including winter-induced shrub damage in terrestrial ecosystem models to accurately predict trends in vegetation productivity and carbon sequestration in the Arctic and sub-Arctic.
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| 34. |
- Pastorello, Gilberto, et al.
(författare)
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The FLUXNET2015 dataset and the ONEFlux processing pipeline for eddy covariance data
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2052-4463. ; 7:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The FLUXNET2015 dataset provides ecosystem-scale data on CO2, water, and energy exchange between the biosphere and the atmosphere, and other meteorological and biological measurements, from 212 sites around the globe (over 1500 site-years, up to and including year 2014). These sites, independently managed and operated, voluntarily contributed their data to create global datasets. Data were quality controlled and processed using uniform methods, to improve consistency and intercomparability across sites. The dataset is already being used in a number of applications, including ecophysiology studies, remote sensing studies, and development of ecosystem and Earth system models. FLUXNET2015 includes derived-data products, such as gap-filled time series, ecosystem respiration and photosynthetic uptake estimates, estimation of uncertainties, and metadata about the measurements, presented for the first time in this paper. In addition, 206 of these sites are for the first time distributed under a Creative Commons (CC-BY 4.0) license. This paper details this enhanced dataset and the processing methods, now made available as open-source codes, making the dataset more accessible, transparent, and reproducible.
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| 35. |
- Peichl, Matthias, et al.
(författare)
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The ABCflux database: Arctic-boreal CO2 flux observations and ancillary information aggregated to monthly time steps across terrestrial ecosystems
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 14, s. 179-208
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Past efforts to synthesize and quantify the magnitude and change in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems across the rapidly warming Arctic-boreal zone (ABZ) have provided valuable information but were limited in their geographical and temporal coverage. Furthermore, these efforts have been based on data aggregated over varying time periods, often with only minimal site ancillary data, thus limiting their potential to be used in large-scale carbon budget assessments. To bridge these gaps, we developed a standardized monthly database of Arctic-boreal CO2 fluxes (ABCflux) that aggregates in situ measurements of terrestrial net ecosystem CO2 exchange and its derived partitioned component fluxes: gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration. The data span from 1989 to 2020 with over 70 supporting variables that describe key site conditions (e.g., vegetation and disturbance type), micrometeorological and environmental measurements (e.g., air and soil temperatures), and flux measurement techniques. Here, we describe these variables, the spatial and temporal distribution of observations, the main strengths and limitations of the database, and the potential research opportunities it enables. In total, ABCflux includes 244 sites and 6309 monthly observations; 136 sites and 2217 monthly observations represent tundra, and 108 sites and 4092 observations represent the boreal biome. The database includes fluxes estimated with chamber (19 % of the monthly observations), snow diffusion (3 %) and eddy covariance (78 %) techniques. The largest number of observations were collected during the climatological summer (June-August; 32 %), and fewer observations were available for autumn (September-October; 25 %), winter (December-February; 18 %), and spring (March-May; 25 %). ABCflux can be used in a wide array of empirical, remote sensing and modeling studies to improve understanding of the regional and temporal variability in CO2 fluxes and to better estimate the terrestrial ABZ CO2 budget. ABCflux is openly and freely available online (Virkkala et al., 2021b, https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1934).
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| 36. |
- Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana, et al.
(författare)
-
The uncertain climate footprint of wetlands under human pressure
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 1091-6490 .- 0027-8424. ; 112:15, s. 4594-4599
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Significant climate risks are associated with a positive carbon-temperature feedback in northern latitude carbon-rich ecosystems, making an accurate analysis of human impacts on the net greenhouse gas balance of wetlands a priority. Here, we provide a coherent assessment of the climate footprint of a network of wetland sites based on simultaneous and quasi-continuous ecosystem observations of CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Experimental areas are located both in natural and in managed wetlands and cover a wide range of climatic regions, ecosystem types, and management practices. Based on direct observations we predict that sustained CH4 emissions in natural ecosystems are in the long term (i.e., several centuries) typically offset by CO2 uptake, although with large spatiotemporal variability. Using a space-for-time analogy across ecological and climatic gradients, we represent the chronosequence from natural to managed conditions to quantify the "cost" of CH4 emissions for the benefit of net carbon sequestration. With a sustained pulse-response radiative forcing model, we found a significant increase in atmospheric forcing due to land management, in particular for wetland converted to cropland. Our results quantify the role of human activities on the climate footprint of northern wetlands and call for development of active mitigation strategies for managed wetlands and new guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) accounting for both sustained CH4 emissions and cumulative CO2 exchange.
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| 37. |
- Pirk, Norbert, et al.
(författare)
-
Calculations of automatic chamber flux measurements of methane and carbon dioxide using short time series of concentrations
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 13:4, s. 903-912
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The closed chamber technique is widely used to measure the exchange of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) from terrestrial ecosystems. There is, however, large uncertainty about which model should be used to calculate the gas flux from the measured gas concentrations. Due to experimental uncertainties the simple linear regression model (first-order polynomial) is often applied, even though theoretical considerations of the technique suggest the application of other, curvilinear models. High-resolution automatic chamber systems which sample gas concentrations several hundred times per flux measurement make it possible to resolve the curvilinear behavior and study the information imposed by the natural variability of the temporal concentration changes. We used more than 50 000 such flux measurements of CH4 and CO2 from five field sites located in peat-forming wetlands ranging from 56 to 78 degrees N to quantify the typical differences between flux estimates of different models. In addition, we aimed to assess the curvilinearity of the concentration time series and test the general applicability of curvilinear models. Despite significant episodic differences between the calculated flux estimates, the overall differences are generally found to be smaller than the local flux variability on the plot scale. The curvilinear behavior of the gas concentrations within the chamber is strongly influenced by wind-driven chamber leakage, and less so by changing gas concentration gradients in the soil during chamber closure. Such physical processes affect both gas species equally, which makes it possible to isolate biochemical processes affecting the gases differently, such as photosynthesis limitation by chamber headspace CO2 concentrations under high levels of incoming solar radiation. We assess the possibility to exploit this effect for a partitioning of the net CO2 flux into photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration as an example of how high-resolution automatic chamber measurements could be used for purposes beyond the estimation of the net gas flux. This shows that while linear and curvilinear calculation schemes can provide similar net fluxes, only curvilinear models open additional possibilities for high-resolution automatic chamber measurements.
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| 38. |
- Pirk, Norbert, et al.
(författare)
-
Methane emission bursts from permafrost environments during autumn freeze-in: New insights from ground-penetrating radar
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 1944-8007. ; 42:16, s. 6732-6738
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Large amounts of methane (CH4) are known to be emitted from permafrost environments during the autumn freeze-in, but the specific soil conditions leading up to these bursts are unclear. Therefore, we used an ultrawide band ground-penetrating radar in Northeast Greenland in autumn 2009 to estimate the volumetric composition inside the soil through dielectric characterization from 200 to 3200 MHz. Our results suggest a compression of the gas reservoir during the phase transition of soil water, which is accompanied by a peak in surface CH4 emissions. About 1 week thereafter, there seems to be a decompression event, consistent with ground cracking which allows the gas reservoir to expand again. This coincides with the largest CH4 emission, exceeding the summer maximum by a factor of 4. We argue that these complementary measurement techniques are needed to come to an understanding of tundra CH4 bursts connected to soil freezing.
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| 39. |
- Pirk, Norbert, et al.
(författare)
-
Snowpack fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide from high Arctic tundra
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - 2169-8953. ; 121:11, s. 2886-2900
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Measurements of the land-atmosphere exchange of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) in high Arctic tundra ecosystems are particularly difficult in the cold season, resulting in large uncertainty on flux magnitudes and their controlling factors during this long, frozen period. We conducted snowpack measurements of these gases at permafrost-underlain wetland sites in Zackenberg Valley (NE Greenland, 74°N) and Adventdalen Valley (Svalbard, 78°N), both of which also feature automatic closed chamber flux measurements during the snow-free period. At Zackenberg, cold season emissions were 1 to 2 orders of magnitude lower than growing season fluxes. Perennially, CH4 fluxes resembled the same spatial pattern, which was largely attributed to differences in soil wetness controlling substrate accumulation and microbial activity. We found no significant gas sinks or sources inside the snowpack but detected a pulse in the δ13C-CH4 stable isotopic signature of the soil's CH4 source during snowmelt, which suggests the release of a CH4 reservoir that was strongly affected by methanotrophic microorganisms. In the polygonal tundra of Adventdalen, the snowpack featured several ice layers, which suppressed the expected gas emissions to the atmosphere, and conversely lead to snowpack gas accumulations of up to 86 ppm CH4 and 3800 ppm CO2 by late winter. CH4 to CO2 ratios indicated distinctly different source characteristics in the rampart of ice-wedge polygons compared to elsewhere on the measured transect, possibly due to geomorphological soil cracks. Collectively, these findings suggest important ties between growing season and cold season greenhouse gas emissions from high Arctic tundra.
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| 40. |
- Pirk, Norbert, et al.
(författare)
-
Spatial variability of CO2 uptake in polygonal tundra : Assessing low-frequency disturbances in eddy covariance flux estimates
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 14:12, s. 3157-3169
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The large spatial variability in Arctic tundra complicates the representative assessment of CO2 budgets. Accurate measurements of these heterogeneous landscapes are, however, essential to understanding their vulnerability to climate change. We surveyed a polygonal tundra lowland on Svalbard with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that mapped ice-wedge morphology to complement eddy covariance (EC) flux measurements of CO2. The analysis of spectral distributions showed that conventional EC methods do not accurately capture the turbulent CO2 exchange with a spatially heterogeneous surface that typically features small flux magnitudes. Nonlocal (low-frequency) flux contributions were especially pronounced during snowmelt and introduced a large bias of -46 gCm-2 to the annual CO22 budget in conventional methods (the minus sign indicates a higher uptake by the ecosystem). Our improved flux calculations with the ogive optimization method indicated that the site was a strong sink for CO2 in 2015 (82 gCm2). Due to differences in light-use efficiency, wetter areas with lowcentered polygons sequestered 47% more CO2 than drier areas with flat-centered polygons. While Svalbard has experienced a strong increase in mean annual air temperature of more than 2K in the last few decades, historical aerial photographs from the site indicated stable ice-wedge morphology over the last 7 decades. Apparently, warming has thus far not been sufficient to initiate strong ice-wedge degradation, possibly due to the absence of extreme heat episodes in the maritime climate on Svalbard. However, in Arctic regions where ice-wedge degradation has already initiated the associated drying of landscapes, our results suggest a weakening of the CO2 sink in polygonal tundra.
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| 41. |
- Pirk, Norbert, et al.
(författare)
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Toward a statistical description of methane emissions from arctic wetlands
- 2017
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Ingår i: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447. ; 46, s. 70-80
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methane (CH4) emissions from arctic tundra typically follow relations with soil temperature and water table depth, but these process-based descriptions can be difficult to apply to areas where no measurements exist. We formulated a description of the broader temporal flux pattern in the growing season based on two distinct CH4 source components from slow and fast-turnover carbon. We used automatic closed chamber flux measurements from NE Greenland (74°N), W Greenland (64°N), and Svalbard (78°N) to identify and discuss these components. The temporal separation was well-suited in NE Greenland, where the hypothesized slow-turnover carbon peaked at a time significantly related to the timing of snowmelt. The temporally wider component from fast-turnover carbon dominated the emissions in W Greenland and Svalbard. Altogether, we found no dependence of the total seasonal CH4 budget to the timing of snowmelt, and warmer sites and years tended to yield higher CH4 emissions.
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| 42. |
- Pongracz, Alexandra, et al.
(författare)
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Model simulations of arctic biogeochemistry and permafrost extent are highly sensitive to the implemented snow scheme in LPJ-GUESS
- 2021
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 18:20, s. 5767-5787
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Arctic is warming rapidly, especially in winter, which is causing large-scale reductions in snow cover. Snow is one of the main controls on soil thermodynamics, and changes in its thickness and extent affect both permafrost thaw and soil biogeochemistry. Since soil respiration during the cold season potentially offsets carbon uptake during the growing season, it is essential to achieve a realistic simulation of the effect of snow cover on soil conditions to more accurately project the direction of arctic carbon-climate feedbacks under continued winter warming. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) dynamic vegetation model has used - up until now - a single layer snow scheme, which underestimated the insulation effect of snow, leading to a cold bias in soil temperature. To address this shortcoming, we developed and integrated a dynamic, multi-layer snow scheme in LPJ-GUESS. The new snow scheme performs well in simulating the insulation of snow at hundreds of locations across Russia compared to observations. We show that improving this single physical factor enhanced simulations of permafrost extent compared to an advanced permafrost product, where the overestimation of permafrost cover decreased from 10% to 5% using the new snow scheme. Besides soil thermodynamics, the new snow scheme resulted in a doubled winter respiration and an overall higher vegetation carbon content. This study highlights the importance of a correct representation of snow in ecosystem models to project biogeochemical processes that govern climate feedbacks. The new dynamic snow scheme is an essential improvement in the simulation of cold season processes, which reduces the uncertainty of model projections. These developments contribute to a more realistic simulation of arctic carbon-climate feedbacks.
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| 43. |
- Qiu, Chunjing, et al.
(författare)
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ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596), a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales
- 2018
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 11:2, s. 497-519
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5° grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC) observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax) being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP) (r2 Combining double low line 0.76; Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF Combining double low line 0.76) and ecosystem respiration (ER, r2 Combining double low line 0.78, MEF Combining double low line 0.75), with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r2 Combining double low line 0.42, MEF Combining double low line 0.14) and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r2 Combining double low line 0.38, MEF Combining double low line 0.26). Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r2 values (0.57-0.86). For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r2 values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT) variation was not well predicted (r2<0.1), likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized Vcmax and latitude (temperature), which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average Vcmax value.
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| 44. |
- Saunois, M., et al.
(författare)
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The global methane budget 2000–2012
- 2016
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 8:2, s. 697-751
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (∼ biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003–2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 540–568. About 60 % of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50–65 %). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 596–884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 64 % of the global budget, < 30° N) as compared to mid (∼ 32 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (∼ 58 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 51–72, −14 %) and higher emissions in Africa (86 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 73–108, +19 %) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30–40 % on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.
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| 45. |
- Treat, Claire C., et al.
(författare)
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Permafrost Carbon : Progress on Understanding Stocks and Fluxes Across Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-8953 .- 2169-8961. ; 129:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan-Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO2 and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process-based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO2 sink with lower net CO2 uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, the strongest CO2 sink was located in western Canada (median: −52 g C m−2 y−1) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: −5 to −9 g C m−2 y−1). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16–18 g CH4 m−2 y−1). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year-round CO2 and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non-growing season emissions and disturbance effects.
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| 46. |
- Tømmervik, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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The northernmost hyperspectral FLoX sensor dataset for monitoring of high-Arctic tundra vegetation phenology and Sun-Induced Fluorescence (SIF)
- 2023
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Ingår i: Data in Brief. - 2352-3409. ; 50
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A hyperspectral field sensor (FloX) was installed in Adventdalen (Svalbard, Norway) in 2019 as part of the Svalbard Integrated Arctic Earth Observing System (SIOS) for monitoring vegetation phenology and Sun-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) of high-Arctic tundra. This northernmost hyperspectral sensor is located within the footprint of a tower for long-term eddy covariance flux measurements and is an integral part of an automatic environmental monitoring system on Svalbard (AsMovEn), which is also a part of SIOS. One of the measurements that this hyperspectral instrument can capture is SIF, which serves as a proxy of gross primary production (GPP) and carbon flux rates. This paper presents an overview of the data collection and processing, and the 4-year (2019–2021) datasets in processed format are available at: https://thredds.met.no/thredds/catalog/arcticdata/infranor/NINA-FLOX/raw/catalog.html associated with https://doi.org/10.21343/ZDM7-JD72 under a CC-BY-4.0 license. Results obtained from the first three years in operation showed interannual variation in SIF and other spectral vegetation indices including MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (MTCI), EVI and NDVI. Synergistic uses of the measurements from this northernmost hyperspectral FLoX sensor, in conjunction with other monitoring systems, will advance our understanding of how tundra vegetation responds to changing climate and the resulting implications on carbon and energy balance.
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| 47. |
- van Hardenbroek, M., et al.
(författare)
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Evidence for past variations in methane availability in a Siberian thermokarst lake based on delta C-13 of chitinous invertebrate remains
- 2013
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 66, s. 74-84
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding past methane dynamics in arctic wetlands and lakes is crucial for estimating future methane release. Methane fluxes from lake ecosystems have increasingly been studied, yet only few reconstructions of past methane emissions from lakes are available. In this study, we develop an approach to assess changes in methane availability in lakes based on delta C-13 of chitinous invertebrate remains and apply this to a sediment record from a Siberian thermokarst lake. Diffusive methane fluxes from the surface of ten newly sampled Siberian lakes and seven previously studied Swedish lakes were compared to taxon-specific delta C-13 values of invertebrate remains from lake surface sediments to investigate whether these invertebrates assimilated C-13-depleted carbon typical for methane. Remains of chironomid larvae of the tribe Orthocladiinae that, in the study lakes, mainly assimilate plant-derived carbon had higher delta C-13 than other invertebrate groups. delta C-13 of other invertebrates such as several chironomid groups (Chironomus, Chironomini, Tanytarsini, and Tanypodinae), cladocerans (Daphnia), and ostracods were generally lower. delta C-13 of Chironomini and Daphnia, and to a lesser extent Tanytarsini was variable in the lakes and lower at sites with higher diffusive methane fluxes. delta C-13 of Chironomini, Tanytarsini, and Daphnia were correlated significantly with diffusive methane flux in the combined Siberian and Swedish dataset (r = -0.72, p = 0.001, r = -0.53, p = 0.03, and r = -0.81, p < 0.001, respectively), suggesting that delta C-13 in these invertebrates was affected by methane availability. In a second step, we measured delta C-13 of invertebrate remains from a sediment record of Lake S1, a shallow thermokarst lake in northeast Siberia. In this record, covering the past ca 1000 years, delta C-13 of taxa most sensitive to methane availability (Chironomini, Tanytarsini, and Daphnia) was lowest in sediments deposited from ca AD 1250 to ca AD 1500, and after AD 1970, coinciding with warmer climate as indicated by an independent local temperature record. As a consequence the offset in delta C-13 between methane-sensitive taxa and bulk organic matter was higher in these sections than in other parts of the core. In contrast, delta C-13 of other invertebrate taxa did not show this trend. Our results suggest higher methane availability in the study lake during warmer periods and that thermokarst lakes can respond dynamically in their methane output to changing environmental conditions. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 48. |
- van Huissteden, J., et al.
(författare)
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Methane emissions from permafrost thaw lakes limited by lake drainage
- 2011
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - 1758-6798. ; 1:2, s. 119-123
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Thaw lakes in permafrost areas are sources of the strong greenhouse gas methane(1-5). They develop mostly in sedimentary lowlands with permafrost and a high excess ground ice volume, resulting in large areas covered with lakes and drained thaw-lake basins (DTLBs; refs 6,7). Their expansion is enhanced by climate warming, which boosts methane emission and contributes a positive feedback to future climate change(3,4,8). Modelling of thaw-lake growth is necessary to quantify this feedback. Here, we present a two-dimensional landscape-scale model that includes the entire life cycle of thaw lakes; initiation, expansion, drainage and eventual re-initiation. Application of our model to past and future lake expansion in northern Siberia shows that lake drainage strongly limits lake expansion, even under conditions of continuous permafrost. Our results suggest that methane emissions from thaw lakes in Siberia are an order of magnitude less alarming than previously suggested, although predicted lake expansion will still profoundly affect permafrost ecosystems and infrastructure.
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| 49. |
- Virkkala, Anna Maria, et al.
(författare)
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Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties
- 2021
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 27:17, s. 4040-4059
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.
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| 50. |
- Watts, J. D., et al.
(författare)
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A satellite data driven biophysical modeling approach for estimating northern peatland and tundra CO2 and CH4 fluxes
- 2014
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4189. ; 11:7, s. 1961-1980
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The northern terrestrial net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) is contingent on inputs from vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) to offset the ecosystem respiration (R-eco) of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions, but an effective framework to monitor the regional Arctic NECB is lacking. We modified a terrestrial carbon flux (TCF) model developed for satellite remote sensing applications to evaluate wetland CO2 and CH4 fluxes over pan-Arctic eddy covariance (EC) flux tower sites. The TCF model estimates GPP, CO2 and CH4 emissions using in situ or remote sensing and reanalysis-based climate data as inputs. The TCF model simulations using in situ data explained >70% of the r(2) variability in the 8 day cumulative EC measured fluxes. Model simulations using coarser satellite (MODIS) and reanalysis (MERRA) Records accounted for approximately 69% and 75% of the respective r(2) variability in the tower CO2 and CH4 records, with corresponding RMSE uncertainties of <= 1.3 gCm(-2) d(-1) (CO2) and 18.2 mg Cm-2 d(-1) (CH4). Although the estimated annual CH4 emissions were small (<18 gCm(-2) yr(-1)) relative to R-eco (>180 gCm(-2) yr(-1)), they reduced the across-site NECB by 23% and contributed to a global warming potential of approximately 165 +/- 128 gCO(2)eqm(-2) yr(-1) when considered over a 100 year time span. This model evaluation indi-cates a strong potential for using the TCF model approach to document landscape-scale variability in CO2 and CH4 fluxes, and to estimate the NECB for northern peatland and tundra ecosystems.
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