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1.	Hultén, John, et al. (författare) Att styra det nya : Samhällets styrning av och med smart mobilitet 2021 Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract Självkörande bilar och digitalt förmedlad samåkning, delningscyklar och kombinerade mobilitetstjänster diskuteras idag vitt och brett inom transportbranschen men också i samhället mer generellt. De nya lösningar som digital teknik för med sig för resor och transporter brukar kallas ”smart mobilitet”. Smart mobilitet skapar möjligheter för en mer hållbar och effektiv mobilitet, men innebär också risker för oönskade konsekvenser. För att uppnå fördelarna och undvika nackdelarna kan smart mobilitet inte enbart betraktas ur tekniska perspektiv. Den smarta mobiliteten behöver förankras i demokratiska principer och styras utifrån samhällets målsättningar. Syftet med denna rapport är att bidra till en diskussion om offentliga aktörers styrning av och med smart mobilitet. I rapporten argumenterar vi för att varje kommun, region och statlig myndighet kommer att påverkas av smart mobilitet, men att de också har möjlighet att påverka utvecklingen. För att kunna göra det behöver de dels reflektera över sin roll och vilka resurser de har eller inte har till förfogande; dels utarbeta ett medvetet förhållningssätt till smart mobilitet, oavsett om strategin präglas av ett proaktivt eller reaktivt fokus. Forskningsprojektet som sammanfattas i denna rapport har haft ambitionen att konkretisera hur offentliga aktörer kan stärka sin förmåga att styra utvecklingen. Det finns inga färdiga recept att följa. Istället för ett färdigt recept, lyfts i rapporten ett antal frågor som vi anser att kommuner, regioner och statliga myndigheter bör ställa sig själva. Frågorna behandlar 1) vikten av att säkerställa grundläggande värden, 2) behovet av en tydlig spelplan, 3) samverkan mellan olika aktörer, 4) medborgarnas inblandning på andra sätt än bara som kunder, 5) vikten av organisatoriskt lärande, 6) att många av dagens styrmedel kommer vara relevanta även i en framtid med smart mobilitet, 7) att de också kan uppstå möjligheter till nya styrmedel, samt 8) att grundläggande styrprinciper kan komma att behöva ifrågasättas.I rapporten presenteras också tre scenarier för samhällsutveckling med smart mobilitet samt en analys av hur smart mobilitet förändrar förutsättningarna att styra mot samhällets mål. Dessutom utvecklar vi ett sätt att analysera politiska styrmedel utifrån fyra olika typer av resurser som offentliga aktörer förfogar. Rapporten har tagits fram inom ramen för projektet ”Smart mobilitet kräver smart governance” som har genomförts under åren 2018–2020 med finansiering från Vinnova. Projektet har utförts av forskare från Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut (VTI), Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan (KTH), Lunds universitet samt en strateg från Trafikverket. Projektet har genomförts med koppling till det nationella kunskapscentret för kollektivtrafik (K2).
2.	Engholm, Albin, 1991-, et al. (författare) The emerging technological innovation system of driverless trucks 2020 Ingår i: Transportation Research Procedia. - : Elsevier BV. - 2352-1465. ; , s. 145-149 Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract Driving automation technology is attractive for the road freight transport sector since driverless trucks (DL-trucks) may drastically reduce driver costs, increase truck utilization and improve road safety. Although DL-trucks may bring significant impacts to the transport system, research on the future diffusion and impacts of DL-trucks is scarce compared to passenger transport. In this paper the sociotechnical innovation system developing, diffusing and utilizing DL-trucks in Sweden is analyzed based on the technological innovation systems (TIS) framework. The analysis is based on 20 expert interviews with a total of 23 representatives from 16 actors in the DL-truck TIS in Sweden. The TIS analysis shows that there are significant uncertainties in the timeline, operational capabilities, infrastructure requirements and regulative landscape for a widespread DL-truck deployment. There is a general view among the interviewees that DL-trucks is an important opportunity for Swedish industry and the economy. From a transport system perspective, DL-trucks are expected to bring sustainability benefits but it remains uncertain whether these benefits will be realized and what the negative side effects might be. The development of DL-trucks is heavily influenced by incumbent firms in the truck manufacturing industry but new actors from the telecom sector, energy sector and emerging truck technology companies are entering the area and shaping the development. The current relatively rigid institutions for truck manufacturing and road freight transport will require significant alignment to adapt to DL-truck operations in areas such as laws and regulations, business models and operational practices. The value chain of road freight transport may be disrupted as some of the current key actors, for instance traditional road carriers, could become less relevant in future DL-truck value chains. A critical uncertainty is how and by which actors the setting of requirements, deployment and financing of digital infrastructure for DL-trucks will be done.
3.	Wallsten, Anna, 1980-, et al. (författare) Statlig styrförmåga i framtider med smart mobilitet 2019 Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract Studien syftar till att öka kunskapen om hur statens förmåga att styra mot transportpolitiska mål kan förändras i olika framtider med smart mobilitet. Smart mobilitet kan förstås som ett paraplybegrepp som samlar ett antal olika trender inom transportsektorn och som alla har det gemensamt att de knyter an till digitalisering. Generellt handlar omställningen mot smart mobilitet om två parallella processer: dels en utveckling i riktning mot självkörande och uppkopplade fordon, dels en utveckling i riktning mot nya former av delad mobilitet.Analysen har baserats på det svenska transportsystemet men vi bedömer det som troligt att analyserna på en aggregerad nivå kommer vara giltig även i andra länder med liknande transportsystem. Vi konstaterar att staten idag förfogar över en stor mängd styrmedel, och sannolikt kommer många av dagens styrmedel vara aktuella även i en framtid med smart mobilitet. Vissa styrmedel påverkas direkt av smart mobilitet. Primärt styrmedel som drar nytta av uppkopplade fordon. Statens möjligheter är avhängigt deras tillgång till data och syn på sin egen roll att styra transportsystemet. Smart mobilitet kan även mer indirekt påverka styrningskapaciteten för olika styrmedel. Det beror på olika antaganden om trafikens utveckling, exempelvis ökad biltrafik eller mer delad mobilitet. Frågor om samhällets organisation har också stor betydelse. Smart mobilitet aktualiserar t.ex. att staten behöver ha en annan kompetens för att effektivt kunna verka i framtiden.
4.	Almlöf, Erik, 1985-, et al. (författare) Frameworks for assessing societal impacts of automated driving technology 2022 Ingår i: Transportation planning and technology (Print). - : Taylor & Francis. - 0308-1060 .- 1029-0354. ; 45:7, s. 545-572 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Numerous studies have studied the impacts of automated driving (AD) technology on e.g. accident rates or CO2 emissions using various frameworks. In this paper we present an overview of previous frameworks used for societal impacts and review their advantages and limitations. Additionally, we introduce the Total Impact Assessment (TIA) framework developed by the Swedish Transport Administration and use this framework to evaluate three scenarios for AD bus services in Stockholm. We conclude that the reviewed frameworks cover different aspects of AD technology, and that e.g. cybersecurity and biodiversity are areas largely neglected. Furthermore, most frameworks assume effects to be homogenous, when there may be large variation in e.g. perceived security. The TIA framework does not manage to include all societal aspects of AD technology, but has great benefits and manages to provide important insights of the societal impacts of AD technology, especially how effects may wary for different actors.
5.	Almlöf, Erik, 1985-, et al. (författare) Frameworks for assessing societal impacts of self-driving technology Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract Numerous studies have studied the impacts of self-driving technology on e.g. accident rates or CO2 emissions using various frameworks. In this paper we present an overview of previous frameworks used for societal impacts, and review their advantages and limitations. Additionally, we introduce the Total Impact Assessment (TIA) framework developed by the Swedish Transport Administration and use this framework to evaluate three scenarios for self-driving bus services in Stockholm. We conclude that the reviewed frameworks cover different aspects of self-driving technology, and that e.g. cybersecurity and biodiversity are areas neglected by most frameworks. Furthermore, most frameworks assume effects to be homogenous, when there may be large variation in e.g. perceived security. The TIA framework does not manage to include all societal aspects of self-driving technology, but has great benefits and manages to provide important insights of the societal impacts of self-driving technology, especially how effects may wary for different actors.
6.	Almlöf, Erik, 1985- (författare) Slutrapport - Självkörande fullängdsbuss på Tvärförbindelse Södertörn 2021 Rapport (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract Föreliggande slutrapport är finansierad av Trafikverkets FoI portfölj, strategiska initiativ,för projekt Självkörande eldriven stombuss på Tvärförbindelse Södertörn – En skalbarfallstudie (TRV 2019/118695). Partners i projektet är Trafikverket, Scania, Volvo, Keolis,KTH samt Sweco där även Trafikförvaltningen Region Stockholm, Nobina och projektTvärförbindelse Södertörn har bidragit till arbetet som pågått från maj 2020 till mars 2021.Ansvarig för projektet inom Trafikverket har varit Stora projekt.För att skapa en förståelse för konsekvenser av tekniska utveckling i relation tillnödvändiga fysiska och digitala åtgärder har tre scenarier tagits fram: Bus Driver Plus,Automation with Adaption och Automation Utopia. Dessa scenarier beskriver olika nivåerav automation och behov av kringliggande stödsystem. I det första scenario finns enförare ombord på bussen som tar över körningen vid farliga situationer. Det andrascenariot avser en självkörande buss utan förare där den fysiska infrastrukturen haranpassats genom ett införande av ett eget busskörfält. Det sista scenariot beskriver enframtid där bussen helt förlitar sig på digital teknik och en operatör kontrollerar körningenav flera fordon från ett avsides kontrolltorn.De tre scenarierna utvärderades genom en samlad effektbedömning, Trafikverkets metodför att utvärdera åtgärder. Resultaten visar att den största vinsten av automatisering kanhandla om resenärernas bekvämlighet och inte nödvändigtvis om att minimera kostnaderför förare. Antaganden om att resenärerna kan uppleva resan bekvämare är troligtvisöverskattade, men resultaten visar att även små förbättringar i bekvämlighet kan ge storasamhälleliga vinster.Scenariot där bussen har ett eget körfält innebär mycket stora kostnader och är troligtvisinte ekonomiskt försvarbart. Dessutom kommer enbart en busslinje att trafikeramotorleden som dessutom består av 3 tunnlar. Vidare är det inte säkert att den aktör somgör nödvändiga investeringar är den aktör som får ta del av de samhälleliga vinsterna. Iscenariot skulle Trafikverket stå för stora delar av investeringskostnaden, medan vinsten för personalbesparingar uppstår för Region Stockholm och kollektivtrafikresenärerna somåker längs sträckan.Projektet har även undersökt hur multimodala hubbar (nod som möjliggör smidigt bytemellan olika transportmedel) längs med förbindelsen kan stödja eldrivna och självkörandebussar. Det är viktigt att ny väginfrastruktur bidrar till en attraktiv kollektivtrafik därresenärer i första hand väljer buss istället för bil. För att eldrivna och självkörande bussarska införas behöver Region Stockholm ställa nya krav i upphandlingar för attåstadkomma en förändring i transportsystemet. Nya krav som skapar ekonomiskaincitament för operatörer som utför den operativa verksamheten över lång tid. Det är dockproblematiskt att ställa krav på eldrift eftersom det saknas tillgänglig infrastruktur iStockholm.Avseende självkörande fullängdsbussar är tekniken helt enkelt inte tillräckligt mogen idag.Dock tror många experter att självkörande bussar kommer att införas, både i stadsmiljöoch glesbygd, när tekniken och samhället är redo för det, gissningsvis kring år 2030.
7.	Almlöf, Erik, 1985-, et al. (författare) Will leisure trips be more affected than work trips by autonomous technology? : Modelling self-driving public transport and cars in Stockholm, Sweden 2022 Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - : Elsevier BV. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 165, s. 1-19 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Self-driving technology may lead to a paradigm shift for the transport industry with shared cars available to every-one. However, this vision has increasingly been challenged as too optimistic and unsubstantiated. In this study we explore societal impacts of using this technology for both cars and public transport and investigate differences depending on geography and trip purpose. Four scenarios were designed through workshops with 130 transport experts, modelled using a conventional four-step model for Stockholm, Sweden and evaluated in terms of changes to mode choice, number of trips and person kilometres.We find larger increases for non-commuting trips, i.e. service and leisure trips, than for commuting trips, questioning the view of the 'productive work trip' as self-driving technology's main impact on society. As these trips are primarily made outside of rush hours, this may lead to a changed transport system. Geographic differences are substantial and heavily dependent on the cost model for car alternatives, even indicating a reduction in car travel in rural areas if private ownership would be replaced by shared cars. Furthermore, walking and cycling levels decreased in all scenarios while enhancing public transport using self-driving technology had a limited impact on ridership.These results show that the impacts of self-driving technology may have varied societal impacts even within a region and may lead to increased car travel, especially off-peak. These conclusions stress the need for policies that are sensitive to both geography and time.
8.	Almlöf, Erik, 1985-, et al. (författare) Will leisure trips be more affected than work trips by autonomous technology? Modelling self-driving public transport and cars in Stockholm, Sweden Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract Self-driving technology may lead to a paradigm shift for the transport industry with shared cars available to everyone. However, this vision has increasingly been challenged as too optimistic and unsubstantiated. In this study we explore societal impacts of using this technology for both cars and public transport and investigate differences depending on geography and trip purpose. Four scenarios were designed through workshops with 130 transport experts, modelled using a conventional four-step model for Stockholm, Sweden and evaluated in terms of changes to mode choice, number of trips and person kilometres. We find larger increases for non-commuting trips, i.e. service and leisure trips, than for commuting trips, questioning the view of the ‘productive work trip’ as self-driving technology’s main impact on society. As these trips are primarily made outside of rush hours, this may lead to a changed transport system. Geographic differences are substantial and heavily dependent on the cost model for car alternatives, even indicating a reduction in car travel in rural areas if private ownership would be replaced by shared cars. Furthermore, walking and cycling levels decreased in all scenarios while enhancing public transport using self-driving technology has a limited impact on ridership. These results show that the impacts of self-driving technology may have varied societal impacts even within a region and may lead to increased car travel, especially off-peak. These conclusions stress the need for policies that are sensitive to both geography and time.
9.	Almlöf, Erik, 1985-, et al. (författare) Will public transport be relevant in a self-driving future? A demand model simulation of four scenarios for Stockholm, Sweden 2020 Ingår i: Transportation Research Procedia 49. - : Association for European Transport. - 2352-1465. ; , s. 60-69 Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract The public sector makes long-term investments in for example tram rail lines and highways based on forecasts of future travelling but generally do not consider the impacts of self-driving technology as a factor. Several papers have presented transport system wide simulations with self-driving cars, exploring changes in mode choice, energy demand or the potential for sharing. Demand traffic models have been used in several studies, looking at modal choice changes, but the general assumption is that the public transport service remains unchanged, despite a large potential for governments to enhance service or reduce costs. This paper examines the effects of self-driving technology on the transport system with Stockholm, Sweden as a case study, looking at four scenarios which were developed with input from 130 transport professionals from industry, academia and the public sector. Each of the scenarios include one "car" and one "public transport" mode, looking at changes in e.g. modal choice and person kilometers traveled. The national demand model Sampers is used for evaluation. The results indicate a decrease in walking and bicycling in all scenarios and a decrease in public transport travelling in scenarios with a taxi-like car service. Although this result would mean a shift from public transport to car travel, the majority of travel to and from central parts of Stockholm were still made by public transport.
10.	Andruetto, Claudia, et al. (författare) Categorization of urban logistics concepts according to their sustainability performance 2023 Ingår i: 2022 Conference Proceedings Transport Research Arena, TRA Lisbon 2022. - : Elsevier BV. ; , s. 2708-2715 Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract The transport-related externalities of the urban logistics system impact the urban environment and the health of the citizens: there is a need to improve the sustainability of the system. In this paper, we use a framework for sustainability performance abessment and a literature review to analyse the urban logistics concepts of electrification, consolidation, cargo bikes and automation. In the literature, there is a focus on pollution, while a holistic perspective on sustainability is lacking. A Sustainability Performance Abessment (SPA) matrix is the main result of this paper, as a tool for comparing the concepts and understanding how they can be combined to achieve integrated benefits. To make informed decisions, stakeholders need knowledge from a holistic perspective. The findings presented in this paper are a first step to achieving this required knowledge.
11.	Andruetto, Claudia, et al. (författare) Transition from physical to online shopping alternatives due to the COVID-19 pandemic : A case study of Italy and Sweden 2023 Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - : Elsevier BV. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 171 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Using 530 responses from an online questionnaire, this study aims to investigate the transition from physical to online shopping alternatives during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic at the individual level. The focus areas of the study are Sweden and Italy, two European countries that implemented contrasting prevention measures. This study analyses the impacts of the pandemic on the transition to online shopping activities, and identifies who among the respondents changed their shopping behaviour the most and how; and what the different shopping strategies are and who adopted them. Multivariate statistical analyses, including linear and binary logistic regressions and multinomial logit models, were used to analyse the dataset. In the analysis, the dataset was split between Italy and Sweden to take into account the contrasting prevention measures and the different social and economic backgrounds of the two countries; the results of this study confirm and highlight these differences. Moreover, the socio-demographic and household structures of the respondents were found to influence the amount and the direction of change in shopping behaviour during the first wave of the pandemic. The study also indicates some policies that can be implemented and/or further strengthened to increase the resilience of citizens in facing pandemics and to derive benefit from the behavioural changes that took place during the first wave of the pandemic.
12.	Berends, Sönke, et al. (författare) The Socio-Economic Benefits of Off-Peak Hour Distribution: The case of Stockholm 2018 Ingår i: <em>Urban Logistics. </em>. - : Kogan page. - 9780749478711 Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
13.	Bin, Elisa, et al. (författare) The trade-off behaviours between virtual and physical activities during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic period 2021 Ingår i: European Transport Research Review. - : Springer Nature. - 1867-0717 .- 1866-8887. ; 13:1 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract IntroductionThe first wave of COVID-19 pandemic period has drastically changed people's lives all over the world. To cope with the disruption, digital solutions have become more popular. However, the ability to adopt digitalised alternatives is different across socio-economic and socio-demographic groups.ObjectiveThis study investigates how individuals have changed their activity-travel patterns and internet usage during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemicperiod, and which of these changes may be kept.MethodsAn empirical data collection was deployed through online forms. 781 responses from different countries (Italy, Sweden, India and others) have beencollected, and a series of multivariate analyses was carried out. Two linear regression models are presented, related to the change of travel activities andinternet usage, before and during the pandemic period. Furthermore, a binary regression model is used to examine the likelihood of the respondents to adoptand keep their behaviours beyond the pandemic period.ResultsThe results show that the possibility to change the behaviour matter. External restrictions and personal characteristics are the driving factors of the reductionin ones' daily trips. However, the estimation results do not show a strong correlation between the countries' restriction policy and the respondents' likelihoodto adopt the new and online-based behaviours for any of the activities after the restriction period.ConclusionThe acceptance and long-term adoption of the online alternatives for activities are correlated with the respondents' personality and socio-demographicgroup, highlighting the importance of promoting alternatives as a part of longer-term behavioural and lifestyle changes.
14.	Bout, Martijn, et al. (författare) A head-mounted display to support teleoperations of shared automated vehicles 2017 Ingår i: AutomotiveUI 2017 - 9th International ACM Conference on Automotive User Interfaces and Interactive Vehicular Applications, Adjunct Proceedings. - New York, NY, USA : Association for Computing Machinery, Inc. - 9781450351515 ; , s. 62-66 Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract Automated driving systems will be severely challenged in the unpredictable conditions of mixed traffic. Consequently, some form of human support remains essential in the foreseeable future. This challenge is especially true for Shared Automated Vehicles (SAVs), as these vehicles will likely not include any human driver on-board. When an SAV will encounter a scenario it cannot handle, a remote human operator will need to intervene and help the vehicle and its passengers. In this study a user-centred design approach is used to study whether a Head-Mounted Display (HMD) interface can support such operators and provide them with additional spatial awareness. Two prototypes (an HMD and a computer display) are developed and evaluated using pre-recorded real-world scenarios. Twelve participants assessed three possible scenarios a remote operator may encounter. Among participants, the study found evidence of strong implicit spatial awareness when using an HMD interface.
15.	Böckle, Marc-Philipp, et al. (författare) SAV2P - Exploring the impact of an interface for shared automated vehicles on pedestrians' experience 2017 Ingår i: AutomotiveUI 2017 - 9th International ACM Conference on Automotive User Interfaces and Interactive Vehicular Applications, Adjunct Proceedings. - New York, NY, USA : ACM. - 9781450351515 - 9781450351508 ; , s. 136-140 Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract To study future communication needs between pedestrians and shared automated vehicles (SAVs), an interface that communicates the intentions of SAVs to pedestrians was designed and implemented in a virtual reality (VR) environment. This enabled the exploration of behaviors and experiences of 34 pedestrians when encountering SAVs, both with and without the interface, in several street crossing situations. All pedestrians assessed the level of perceived safety and comfort directly after each encounter with the SAV. The results show that the pedestrians' level of perceived safety and comfort is higher in encounters with the interface than in encounters without the interface. This may have a positive influence on the acceptance of SAVs, and implies that future SAVs may gain from this, or similar interface.
16.	Chee, Pei Nen Esther, et al. (författare) Which factors affect willingness-to-pay for automated vehicle services? : Evidence from public road deployment in Stockholm, Sweden 2020 Ingår i: European Transport Research Review. - : SPRINGER. - 1867-0717 .- 1866-8887. ; 12:1 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Introduction Travel demand and travel satisfaction of a transport service are affected by user perceptions of the service quality attributes, and such perceptions should be included in studying user willingness-to-pay (WTP) for automated vehicle (AV) services. This study applied structural equation modelling with service quality attribute perceptions as latent variables affecting WTP. Objectives We investigated how WTP AV services are affected by socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge and experiences with AV, existing travel modes and particularly, perceptions of the associated service quality attributes. The AV services are: 1) on-demand personalised AV (PAV) service, 2) demand responsive shared AV (SAV) service, and 3) first-/last-mile automated bus (AB) service. Methods The data were collected from 584 potential users of a first-/last-mile AB service trial operated in Kista, Stockholm. Results Results show people hold different expectations towards each type of AV service. These expectations act as the minimum requirements for people to pay for the AV services. Respondents are found to be willing to pay more for PAV service if it is safe, provides good ride comfort, and is competitively priced relative to the price travelling by metro and train over a same distance. Other than service quality attribute perceptions, income level, existing travel modes for daily trips, familiarity with automated driving technology and AB ride experience are important factors affecting WTP for the AV services. Conclusion The developed model can be applied to understand expectations of potential users towards a new AV service, and to identify user groups who are willing to pay the service. New AV services can thus be designed sensibly according to users' actual needs.
17.	Chee, Pei Nen, et al. (författare) Investigating the willingness of use autonomous bus as a last-mile travel mode: First evidence from public trial in Kista, Stockholm 2018 Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)
18.	Engholm, Albin, 1991-, et al. (författare) Cost Analysis of Driverless Truck Operations 2020 Ingår i: Transportation Research Record. - : SAGE Publications. - 0361-1981 .- 2169-4052. Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Road freight transport is believed by many to be the first transport domain in which driverless (DL) vehicles will have a significant impact. However, in current literature almost no attention has been given to how the diffusion of DL trucks might occur and how it might affect the transport system. To make predictions on the market uptake and to model impacts of DL truck deployment, valid cost estimates of DL truck operations are crucial. In this paper, an analysis of costs and cost structures for DL truck operations, including indicative numerical cost estimates, is presented. The total cost of ownership for DL trucks compared with that for manually driven (MD) trucks has been analyzed for four different truck types (16-, 24-, 40-, and 64-ton trucks), for three scenarios reflecting pessimistic, intermediate, and optimistic assumptions on economic impacts of driving automation based on current literature. The results indicate that DL trucks may enable substantial cost savings compared with the MD truck baseline. In the base (intermediate) scenario, costs per 1,000 ton-kilometer decrease by 45%, 37%, 33%, and 29% for 16-, 24-, 40-, and 60-ton trucks, respectively. The findings confirm the established view in the literature that freight transport is a highly attractive area for DL vehicles because of the potential economic benefits.
19.	Engholm, Albin, 1991- (författare) Driverless trucks in the Swedish freight transport system : An analysis of future impacts on the transport system and the emerging innovation system 2021 Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract A large-scale introduction of driverless trucks could start taking place during the next decade. While this could bring several economic benefits for freight transport actors and society, it may also change the freight transport system and exacerbate the negative effects of road transport. This thesis aims to increase the understanding of how an introduction of driverless trucks could materialize and impact the freight transport system in Sweden. Two overarching issues are addressed. The first is how freight transport patterns will change due to the impacts of driverless trucks on road transport supply. This is addressed in Paper 1 and Paper 2. The second issue, which is studied in Paper 3, is what factors are shaping the ongoing development towards an introduction of driverless trucks in Sweden. In Paper 1, the impact of driverless trucks on the costs for long-distance road freight transport is studied through a total cost of ownership analysis which shows that driverless trucks could enable cost reductions of around 30%-40% per ton-kilometer. A key determinant of the cost reduction is to what extent reduced driver costs will be offset by other forms of human labor that may be required for driverless truck operations. Other factors, including changes to the truck acquisition cost, have marginal importance. The cost-saving potential provides a strong motivation for freight transport actors to develop and adopt driverless trucks. In Paper 2, the impacts of driverless trucks on road transport demand, utilization of different truck types, modal split, and total logistics costs are studied by using the Swedish national freight transport model Samgods. Two scenario types are studied, one in which driverless trucks substitute manually driven trucks and one where driverless trucks capable of operating between logistics hubs are introduced as a complement to manually driven trucks. The analysis shows that in both scenarios, driverless trucks could reduce total costs for Swedish freight transport in the range of billions of SEK per year. Road transport demand and truck traffic volumes may increase significantly through modal shifts from rail and sea. This could lead to increased societal costs through, for instance, increased CO2 emissions and congestion which are, however, not quantified in the study. In Paper 3, an analysis of the innovation system of driverless trucks based on an interview study with actors involved in the development and introduction of driverless trucks in Sweden is presented. The findings suggest that there are several favorable factors for a successful introduction of driverless trucks, but also that the innovation system is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty related to what infrastructure will be required and available, what business models will be emerging, and which actors will be able to capitalize on the development and which actors that become marginalized in a future with driverless trucks. The findings from this thesis can be of interest for policymakers since it highlights potential benefits and challenges associated with driverless trucks from a transport-system perspective and the provided indicative quantitative estimates on system-level impacts offer a glimpse into a future freight transport system with driverless trucks. Also, the thesis highlights critical challenges for the innovation system of driverless trucks which could guide efforts to improve its performance.
20.	Engholm, Albin, 1991-, et al. (författare) Impacts of Large-Scale Driverless Truck Adoption on the Freight Transport System Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract Driverless trucks could potentially lead to a significant reduction in road freight transport costs and thereby change the freight transport system. In this paper, a method to study the impacts of large-scale adoption of driverless trucks on transport systems is presented and applied to the Swedish freight transport system. An analysis of the impacts on transport patterns and system costs, considering all transport modes, is performed. The method is based on extending the application domain of the Swedish national freight transport model Samgods to two types of driverless truck scenarios.The first scenario represents a full adoption of driverless trucks that can operate the complete road network. The results show that there is an increase in road transport tonne-kilometers on Swedish territory by 22% and vehicle kilometers traveled by trucks increase by 35%, compared to a baseline scenario without driverless trucks. The annual total transport system costs decrease by 1.7 B€.In the second scenario, the current fleet of manually driven trucks is complemented by driverless trucks that can operate between logistics hubs, but not in complex traffic environments like urban areas due to a limited operational design domain. This may be an initial use-case for driverless trucks operating on public roads. In this scenario, road tonne-kilometers increase by 11%, truck vehicle kilometers increase by 15%, and annual total transport system costs decrease by 1.2 B€ compared to the baseline.For both scenarios, the impacts of driverless trucks vary significantly across commodity types and transport distances which suggest heterogeneity of benefits of automated driving between different types of freight flows. A sensitivity analysis is performed for the level of cost reduction of driverless trucks compared to manually driven trucks for both scenarios. For the second scenario, also which sections of the road network that driverless trucks can operate are varied. The magnitude of system impacts are for both scenarios highly dependent on the cost level of driverless trucks and it is crucial to enable driverless trucks for international, cross-border transport to achieve economic benefits on a system-level.Driverless trucks may also have significant societal costs due to potential infrastructure investments and from negative externalities such as increasing CO2 emissions and congestion. These are important topics for future research. Finally, the even more road-dominant transport system resulting from an introduction of driverless trucks strengthens the need to decarbonize road transport to meet non-negotiable climate targets.
21.	Engholm, Albin, 1991-, et al. (författare) Impacts of large-scale driverless truck adoption on the freight transport system 2021 Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - : PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 154, s. 227-254 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This paper presents an analysis of the potential impacts of large-scale adoption of driverless trucks on transport patterns and system costs for a national freight transport system with Sweden as a case study. The analysis is performed by extending the application domain of the Swedish national freight transport model Samgods to analyze two types of driverless truck scenarios. The first scenario represents a full adoption of driverless trucks that can operate the complete road network and thereby substitute manually driven trucks. In this scenario, road transport tonne-kilometers on Swedish territory increase by 22%, vehicle kilometers traveled by trucks increase by 35% and annual total system costs decrease by 1.7 B(sic) compared to a baseline scenario without driverless trucks. In the second scenario, the current fleet of manually driven trucks is complemented by driverless trucks that can operate on major roads between logistics hubs, but not in complex traffic environments like urban areas due to a limited operational design domain. This may be an initial use-case for driverless trucks operating on public roads. In this scenario, road tonne-kilometers increase by 11%, truck vehicle kilometers traveled increase by 15%, and annual total system costs decrease by 1.2 B_ compared to the baseline. For both scenarios, the impacts of driverless trucks vary significantly between commodity types and transport distances which suggests heterogeneity of benefits of automated driving between different types of freight flows. A sensitivity analysis is performed in which the costs for driverless truck operations is varied, and for the second scenario, also which parts of the road network that driverless trucks can operate are varied. This analysis indicates that the magnitude of impacts is highly dependent on the cost level of driverless trucks and that the ability for DL-trucks to perform international, cross-border transport is crucial for achieving reductions in system costs. An overarching conclusion of the study is that driverless trucks may lead to a significant increase in road transport demand due to modal shifts from rail and sea as a result of the improved cost performance of road transport. This would further strengthen the need to decarbonize road transport to meet non-negotiable climate targets. Important topics for future research include assessing potential societal costs related to driverless trucks due to infrastructure investments and negative externalities such as increasing CO2 emissions and congestion.
22.	Engholm, Albin, 1991-, et al. (författare) Is the driverless future sustainable? : Strategic uncertainties and system impacts 2019 Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract Future sustainability impacts of driverless vehicles are subject to significant uncertainty which arise from complex systemic interactions within the transportation system and parallel social trends influencing transportation. One approach used to holistically address impacts of driverless vehicles is societal scenarios which capture and problematize the complex interactions. However, they are speculative in their nature and sensitive to the pre-conceptions and knowledge of the experts developing the scenarios. In this paper, multiple scenarios developed in several different studies are compared to create a deeper and broader understanding of system impacts of driverless vehicles and the future society with driverless vehicles than what is achieved through individual scenario studies. The findings show that there are four strategic uncertainties shaping the development: the role of the public and private sector, policy making for driverless vehicles, the impact of the sharing economy and the pace of driverless technology development. Most of the studied scenarios report higher traffic volumes than today. Impacts on social equity and the role of public transport vary significantly between the scenarios. Furthermore, the scenario studies expect the sharing economy to be an enabler to curb growth in travel volumes which is important if climate goals for transportation should be possible to meet. Further research efforts should address impacts of driverless vehicles in more systematic forms than societal scenarios but with wider system delimitations than in existing simulation studies.
23.	Engholm, Albin, 1991-, et al. (författare) MUST Managing Deep Uncertainty in Planning for Sustainable Transport : Project report: phase 1 2024 Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract There is a growing recognition that traditional forecasting and decision-making approaches might fall short considering the many uncertainties and complexities facing the development of the transport system. The project Managing deep Uncertainty in planning for Sustainable Transport (MUST), funded by Trafikverket and conducted by KTH ITRL and VTI, aims to explore emerging methods for improving the handling of deep uncertainty in the long-term planning of future transport systems. The core of MUST is to explore, develop, and demonstrate tools and methods grounded in Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA). These approaches are intended to support a shift towards more robust and adaptable planning methodologies.The project is performed in two phases, with the first phase dedicated to laying a foundational understanding of deep uncertainty in transport planning. This report covers the first phase which has included the following tasks: A literature review on deep uncertainty and existing decision-making and system analysis methods under such conditions, with a focus on transportation. A workshop series with Trafikverket identifying transport planning challenges marked by deep uncertainty.A case study of applying DMDU through a case study on climate policy robustness (primarily reported in other deliverables).The literature review covers how the nature of uncertainty in socio-technical systems can be understood, classified, and analyzed. For policy analysis and decision making, the literature underscores the importance of considering multiple futures in model-based analysis when faced with deep uncertainties. DMDU and EMA methods are reviewed and summarized, and their application to transport are discussed. The literature also summarizes studies on uncertainty in model-based transport planning and policy analysis and concludes that the primary location of deep uncertainty is in the model inputs in the form of “scenario uncertainty”. In the workshop series, uncertainty related to producing the base forecast (Swe: basprognos) and policy analysis for domestic transport climate policy was analyzed. This analysis suggested that scenario uncertainty is a main source of deep uncertainty, but also uncertainty related to the system boundaries where highlighted. Furthermore, potential benefits and drawbacks of EMA and DMDU were discussed. In the case study, it is explored how the Scenario tool can be further leveraged by DMDU. More specifically, MORDM (see Section 2.2.3) is applied to assess to what extent it may allow a broader set of policy options to be explored, and how it can provide a better understanding of the robustness and vulnerabilities of different types of policies. A key takeaway from MUST phase 1 is that DMDU and EMA could provide several potential benefits and that methods and tools for applying them are maturing. However, it is possibly a long way to go before DMDU and EMA can be integrated as a regularly used method during the planning process. This is due to organization and process-related issues, as well as technical issues on how to effectively apply DMDU and EMA to Trafikverket’s national transport models. These technical issues will partly be explored in MUST phase 2.
24.	Engholm, Albin, 1991-, et al. (författare) System-level impacts of self-driving vehicles : terminology, impact frameworks and existing literature syntheses 2018 Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract The intention with this report is to contribute toward the development of systemic and holistic studies of impacts of self-driving vehicles. The report is targeting system-level impacts of self-driving vehicles on the transportation system but also wider societal impacts on factors such as: land-use, public health, energy and emissions, etc. This report is complimentary to two papers that are focused on in-depth literature review of simulation studies (Pernestål Brenden and Kristoffersson 2018) and future scenario studies of impacts of self-driving vehicles (Engholm, Kristoffersson, and Pernestål Brenden 2018).The first aim of the report is to summarize knowledge to enable future design of a high-level conceptual framework for impacts from self-driving vehicles from a systems perspective. The second aim is to summarize knowledge on impacts from self-driving vehicles in a selection of the available literature. The main contributions of the report are the following:A terminology for different types of automated vehicles, connected vehicles and mobility concepts for automated vehicles is presentedFrameworks for classifying system-level impacts from SDVs in the existing literature are summarized and analyzedExisting literature studies on system-level impacts from SDVs are synthesized and common themes and gaps in current research are analyzedThe terminology proposed in this report distinguishes between different types of automated and connected vehicles and is primarily intended as a tool to enable stringent analysis in this report when analyzing literature that apply different terminologies. Two frameworks for classifying system-level impacts are identified and compared. The analysis of the frameworks covers their scope, specification of mechanisms generating system impacts and briefly reviews their applicability as a starting point for developing a systems model of impacts from self-driving vehicles. The review of existing literature syntheses shows that there is a large variation in availability on literature for different system impacts. Impacts on road safety, road capacity and vehicle ownership forms are well studied. Examples of less studied impacts are costs of ownership, public health, infrastructure, air pollution and accessibility. The review identifies several contractionary mechanisms and effects that can affect various system-level impacts. The results of the review highlight the need to approach impact assessments of self-driving vehicles from a systemic and holistic point of view.
25.	Guo, Jia, et al. (författare) Influence of Individual Perceptions on the Decision to Adopt Automated Bus Services 2020 Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 12:16 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The rapid development of automated buses holds great potential for the development of transportation systems. As research into innovative forms of automated transportation systems gains momentum, it is important to understand the public's perceptions of such public transport systems. Previous studies have contributed based on hypothetical scenarios, but not based on real observations. Based on an online survey in Stockholm in March 2019, the current research addresses this gap by investigating the public's perceptions from a real, fully operational, automated public transportation service operated in a mixed traffic environment on public roads. The respondents were selected along the automated bus line in Barkabystaden, Stockholm. Our findings indicate that (1) The presence of onboard operators has a positive impact on respondents' perceived safety, (2) People who have not taken automated buses before have a more negative perception of driving speed of the bus service than people who have taken the buses before, (3) Attitudinal factors, such as public perceptions of safety, driving speed, reliability, and convenience, have a significant influence on the acceptance of the new bus system, (4) As an emerging and innovative transportation mode, automated buses are expected to attract a high share of regular public transportation mode users and the younger generations in the future, (5) Social-demographic characteristics such as gender and income had no significant impacts on the adoption of the new technology. The results provide the characteristics of early bus adopters and their travel behavior and help to prioritize possible investments and allow the policymakers and private industries to identify the special needs of users.
26.	Guo, Jia, et al. (författare) When and why do people choose automated buses over conventional buses? : Results of a context-dependent stated choice experiment 2021 Ingår i: Sustainable cities and society. - : Elsevier BV. - 2210-6707. ; 69 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The sustainable and continuous development of public transport systems is crucial to ensuring robust and resilient transport and economic activity whilst improving the urban environment. Through technological improvement, cities can increase the competitiveness of public transport, promote equality and pursue a multimodal shift to greener solutions. The introduction of vehicle automation technology into existing public transport systems has potential impacts on mobility behaviours and may replace conventional bus service in the future. This study examines travellers? preferences for automated buses versus conventional buses, using a contextdependent stated choice experiment. This experiment measured the effects of context variables (such as trip purpose, travel distance, time of day, weather conditions and travel companion) on the choice of automated buses versus conventional buses. The results were analysed using mixed logit models, and the findings indicate that, in general, choice behaviours do not diverge much between the choice of automated bus and conventional bus. However, individuals? choices are more elastic towards the changes in automated bus service levels compared to conventional bus service. The results show that poor weather conditions may lower the quality and reliability of public transport service, and the probability of choosing an automated bus over a conventional bus is reduced due to such disruptions. In addition, passengers travelling for work purposes, covering long distances, or travelling with companions are more likely to choose conventional buses than automated buses.
27.	Guo, Jia, et al. (författare) Word of mouth and behavioural intentions of the automated bus service 2022 Ingår i: Cities. - : Elsevier BV. - 0264-2751 .- 1873-6084. ; 126, s. 103668- Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Automation technology has received great attention recently and been expected to play an important role in future transport systems. Understanding determinants of travellers' intention to use the bus and recommend the service to others is critical to promote such new travel modes. Although previous studies have focused on plausible scenarios based on hypothetical behavioural reactions, predicted adoption intention and recommendation behaviour may not be consistent with those exhibited when the users are exposed to the real automated bus service. Using a panel survey conducted in Stockholm, where an automated bus services is currently operating in the mixed traffic environment on the public road, this study addresses this research gap by investigating public acceptance and usage of these automated buses. Applying a behavioural model, this study explores key influencing factors of automated bus use and word of mouth intention. The results indicate that users' needs and travel demands have a strong power to influence people's intentions to use such a new public travel mode and recommend the service to others. Furthermore, individuals' behaviour intention is found to have no significant effect on actual behaviour in this study, which suggests a gap between intention and action.
28.	Hesselgren, Mia, 1965-, et al. (författare) Understanding user practices in mobility service systems : Results from studying large scale corporate MaaS in practice 2020 Ingår i: Travel Behaviour and Society. - : Elsevier. - 2214-367X. ; 21, s. 318-327 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Mobility as a Service (MaaS), where different shared modes of transportation are bundled into one easily accessible service, plays an important role in the shift towards more sustainable transport systems. In this article, we present empirical research with the aim to understand how the barriers to increased shared travel with MaaS can be lowered. The concept of corporate MaaS (CMaaS) is introduced, and empirical results are presented from a study of CMaaS at a workplace of 14,000 employees in Sweden. The findings are based on 77 interviews with CMaaS users, performed in four iterative rounds using service design methods. Social practice theories are used as analytical lens to attempt to understand travel practices in the context of CMaaS. As CMaaS (and MaaS) are socio-technical systems, several perspectives need to be integrated in order to reach this understanding; all system components, including materials (e.g. the user application, the transport modes), competences (knowledge of how to use the materials), and meanings (understandings of travel habits, lifestyle choices, and employer relations) need to be analysed. Through this analytical lens, three barriers to adoption of CMaaS and sustainable transport were identified: inadequate integration of the internal transport system with external transport systems; corporate policy, culture and norms that conflict with using the services; and system limitations due to laws and regulations. All these barriers are also relevant for understanding MaaS services in general.
29.	Holmberg, Per-Erik, et al. (författare) Kombinerad mobilitet uppskalning i Sverige (KOMPIS) : Projektrapport 2021 Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract Kombinerad mobilitet, Mobilitet som tjänst, Mobility as a Service (MaaS), integrerade mobilitetstjänster. Företeelsen har många namn, och många forskare, entreprenörer, innovatörer och konsulter som ägnat mycket tid åt den utifrån olika perspektiv. En del hävdar att det finns fler som studerar kombinerad mobilitet än faktiska användare. Det är dock en av de frågor vi inte adresserat i KOMPIS – alltså hur många som studerar kombinerad mobilitet. Flera av oss som varit delaktiga i projektet KOMPIS, allt från forskare, finansiärer och entreprenörer – har varit med på denna resa sedan långt före begreppet MaaS stadfästes i Finland . I Sverige startade den resan egentligen med ett förstudieprojekt 2011 som finansierades av Västra Götalandsregionen och leddes av Hans Arby och Olle Boethius - Den flexible trafikanten. En idé om en affärsmodell där det skulle gå att erbjuda mobilitet i delar, fast i ett paket; att det kanske skulle kunna finnas en tredje part vars affärsidé var att kombinera alla dessa delar till något bättre, och mer anpassat till resenärers verkliga behov.I förstudien deltog förutom forskare och entreprenörer även kollektivtrafiken, hyrbils- och bilpoolsföretagen taxi och många fler. Slutsatsen var ganska enhällig: “Ja det skulle nog behövas en sådan konsoliderande tjänst, men det är inte vi som ska ta den rollen”.Under förstudieprojektet till GoSmart som drevs av Lindholmen Science Park fick jag möjlighet att tillsammans med MariAnne Karlsson på Chalmers att utarbeta ett förslag till hur man faktiskt tillsammans med Hans och Olle skulle kunna pröva idén som de hade mejslat fram i förstudien. Det ledde till, påstår vi, det först riktiga försöket i världen att bygga och testa en KM-tjänst. Jo, jag vet – många kommer vända sig mot det påståendet och visa att det visst testats kombinerade mobilitetstjänster innan – men ingen hade på riktigt prövat affärsmodellen för kombinerad mobilitet före GoSmart – men det är mindre viktigt. Projektet, som måste sägas var lyckat, visade ändå att denna typ av tjänst var uppskattad av de som testade – och förmodligen behövde en sådan tjänst. Men hur många är de egentligen? Hur stor är potentialen?Samtidigt, i en annan ände av innovationssystemet, hade Viktoriainstitutet (numera en del av RISE) tillsammans med Samtrafiken och Chalmers precis genomfört innovationstävlingen Travelhack inom projektet Innovation för Hållbart Vardagsresande. Förutom tanken att få hela kollektivtrafiken att öppna upp sin data också erbjuda den på något man kallade Trafiklab, till tredjepartsutvecklare. En del i denna plan var också att stimulera tredjepartsutveckling med innovationstävlingar baserat på kollektivtrafikdata – Travelhack. En av pristagarna hade tagit fram en app där man kunde söka efter och beställa biljetter för olika kollektivtrafikaktörer i en och samma app. De hade under prisutdelningskvällen en lång diskussion, som jag fick lyssna på, med Samtrafikens VD och en av SL’s representanter, om varför man inte kunde få tillgång till kollektivtrafikens biljetter som API – detta var 2013.Västtrafik, som var en av parterna i GOSMART började i detta projekt sin resa kring kombinerad mobilitet; att utforska behovet och på vilket sätt de bör och kan engagera sig. Denna resa är väl beskriven i flera forskningsartiklar av KOMPIS egen bibliotekarie, Göran Smith, vilka tillsammans illustrerar hur komplicerad frågan faktiskt är .2015, på ITS World Congress i Bordeaux fullkomligt exploderade begreppet Mobility as a Service. Vi som arbetat med forskningsfrågan, och knappt hade hunnit sätta ett namn på det, blev tagna på sängen. Från att behöva lägga mycket tid på att beskriva fenomenet, roller och hitta intressenter, var kombinerad mobilitet plötsligt på allas läppar – mycket beroende på att Finland under sin ordförandeperiod valde att lyfta fram kombinerad mobilitet som en av landets stora, framtida exporttjänster. Finlands jättemonter i Bordeaux var målad med just den affärsmodell som föreslagits av Hans och Olle i förstudien 2011. ERTICO bildade MaaS Alliance och fordonsindustrin började på allvar prata om mobilitetstjänster som något även de skulle erbjuda i framtiden.Finlands roll i att lyfta fram kombinerad mobilitet skall inte underskattas. Sverige och Finland hade samarbetat kring frågan under flera år. När drivkraften för oss i Sverige var ett hållbart transportsystem, så var det i vårt grannland i öster snarare en vision av att hitta ett nytt NOKIA och ett nytt GSM som var drivkraften. Målsättning med företag, export och arbetstillfällen var tydligare där än i Sverige och förmodligen ett av skälen till att Finland, ända upp på ministernivå, drev frågan så hårt.Vi i Sverige fick också en insikt i hur Finland hade nått så långt på så kort tid. ITS Finland samlade tidigt intressenter från näringsliv och offentlig sektor i en informell sammanslutning av aktörer som ’ville kombinerad mobilitet’. Deras så kallade ’MaaS-öl’ på en särskild restaurang i Helsingfors har beskrivits för mig av många som en av de viktigare anledningarna till att kombinerad mobilitet tog fart i Finland. En möjlighet att träffas över organisationsgränser och skapa nya idéer under otvungna förhållanden. En idé som vi tog med oss in i KOMPIS och blev grunden till Kompis MeetUps.Flertalet förstudier, konsultrapporter och konferenser senare – 2016, tog regeringens samverkansgrupp för Nästa Generations Resor och Transporter, på initiativ av Ulrika Bokeberg på Västra Götalandsregionen, beslut om att en färdplan för kombinerad mobilitet skulle tas fram för Sverige. Uppdraget gick till Drive Sweden och Anna Pernestål. Anna samlade en kärngrupp med representanter från Kungliga tekniska högskolan, KTH (Anna Kramers), Västra Götalandsregionen (Göran Smith), Samtrafiken (Adam Laurell) och RISE (som jag fick äran att representera) vilken utvecklade och förankrade den första versionen av Färdplanen för Kombinerad mobilitet i Sverige. 2017 fick vi av samma grupp en förfrågan att starta ett samverkansprojekt för att stötta realiserandet av färdplanen. Ett uppdrag som jag, tillsammans med Anna och på senare tid, Steven Sarasini, med stor respekt och entusiasm tog på oss att leda. Detta projekt blev Kombinerad Mobilitet - imPlementering I Sverige (KOMPIS).
30.	Holmberg, Per-Erik, et al. (författare) KOmbinerad Mobilitet uppskalning i Sverige - KOMPIS. Slutrapport från projektet KOMPIS 2021 Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
31.	Kristoffersson, Ida, 1980-, et al. (författare) Framtidsscenarier för självkörande fordon på väg : samhällseffekter 2030 med utblick mot 2050 2017 Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract Utvecklingen inom tekniken för självkörande fordon går snabbt och många fordonstillverkare (GM, Ford, Toyota, BMW, Audi, VW med flera) anger att de kommer lansera ett fullt ut självkörande fordon på marknaden kring år 2020. Även om teknikutvecklingen har gått och kommer gå snabbt de närmaste åren finns stora frågetecken kvar kring hur de självkörande fordonen kommer tas emot av samhället, var de kommer få köra, om de kommer användas främst som privata eller delade fordon, hur trafik-, integritets- och cyber-säkra de kommer vara och upplevas som av användarna, och i vilken utsträckning de kommer påverka accepterad pendlingstid, färdmedelsval och inducerat bilresande.Samtidigt påverkas de långsiktiga samhällsnyttorna med självkörande fordon inte främst av teknologiska framsteg utan mestadels av vilken roll de självkörande fordonen kommer få i vårt samhälle, det vill säga vilka effekter de får på trafiksystemet och samhällsplaneringen i stort. Det är därför viktigt att tidigt uppskatta möjliga framtidsscenarier för självkörande fordon. Utifrån dessa scenarier kan man sedan föra en diskussion kring hur regler och styrmedel bör användas för att största möjliga samhällsnytta ska uppnås.Detta notat beskriver det arbete med framtidsscenarier för självkörande fordon som gjorts under vintern 2016/2017. En analysgrupp på fem personer har, med stöd av en expertgrupp för persontransporter som samlats för tre heldagsworkshops, arbetat fram både en säker utveckling mot 2030 och två osäkra axlar som lett fram till fyra möjliga scenarier för framtiden med självkörande fordon i Sverige. Med medverkan från 40 experter från 23 organisationer inom transportområdet är denna studie unik jämfört med tidigare scenario-arbeten kring utvecklingen för självkörande fordon, vilka byggt antingen på litteraturstudier eller expertworkshops med ett fåtal forskare.
32.	Kristoffersson, Ida, 1980-, et al. (författare) Future scenarios for self-driving vehicles with Sweden as a case study 2017 Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
33.	Kristoffersson, Ida, 1980-, et al. (författare) Scenarios for the development of self-driving vehicles in freight transport 2018 Ingår i: <em>Proceedings of 7th Transport Research Arena TRA2018</em>. - : Zenodo. Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract This paper extends previous research by developing future scenarios for self-driving vehicles and their societal impacts in freight transport using Sweden as a case study. Freight experts from vehicle manufacturers, agencies, universities and hauliers were recruited for a workshop where they assessed the benefits, costs, possibilities and barriers for self-driving vehicles in freight transport. The paper shows that reduction in driver and vehicle costs, reduced number of incidents and more fuel-efficient driving are seen as the main benefits of self-driving vehicles in freight transport, and increased vehicle costs, lost jobs, reduced degree of filling and more transport as the main costs. Furthermore, reduced drivers’ costs, more hours-of-service and new business models are identified as the main drivers of the development and traffic management, small hauliers, loading and unloading and cross-border transport as the main barriers. The paper also integrates the description of possible developments of self-driving vehicles in freight transport into the four future scenarios developed for passenger transport in Sweden.
34.	Pernestål, Anna, et al. (författare) A Bayesian Approach to Fault Isolation with Application to Diesel Engine Diagnosis 2006 Ingår i: DX’06, 17th International Workshop on Principles of Diagnosis, Peñaranda de Duero, Burgos, Spain, June 26-28, 2006. ; , s. 211-218 Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract This paper considers a Bayesian approach to fault isolation. Given a set of measurements from the system, and a set of possible faults, the task is to calculate the probability that the faults are present. This probability can then be used to rank the faults, or for decisions on fault sccomodation. The method requires the conditional probability distribution desccribing how the measurements react to the faults. In particular, the structure of dependencies between the tests is important. Knowing the structure facilitates efficient computation methods and makes it possible to reduce the memory capacity needed. In this paper, the structure is estimated from training data using Bayesian methods. The method is applied to diagnosis of the gas flow in a diesel engine.
35.	Pernestål, Anna, 1978- (författare) A Bayesian approach to fault isolation with application to diesel engine diagnosis 2007 Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract Users of heavy trucks, as well as legislation, put increasing demands on heavy trucks. The vehicles should be more comfortable, reliable and safe. Furthermore, they should consume less fuel and be more environmentally friendly. For example, this means that faults that cause the emissions to increase must be detected early. To meet these requirements on comfort and performance, advanced sensor-based computer control-systems are used. However, the increased complexity makes the vehicles more difficult for the workshop mechanic to maintain and repair. A diagnosis system that detects and localizes faults is thus needed, both as an aid in the repair process and for detecting and isolating (localizing) faults on-board, to guarantee that safety and environmental goals are satisfied. Reliable fault isolation is often a challenging task. Noise, disturbances and model errors can cause problems. Also, two different faults may lead to the same observed behavior of the system under diagnosis. This means that there are several faults, which could possibly explain the observed behavior of the vehicle. In this thesis, a Bayesian approach to fault isolation is proposed. The idea is to compute the probabilities, given ``all information at hand'', that certain faults are present in the system under diagnosis. By ``all information at hand'' we mean qualitative and quantitative information about how probable different faults are, and possibly also data which is collected during test drives with the vehicle when faults are present. The information may also include knowledge about which observed behavior that is to be expected when certain faults are present. The advantage of the Bayesian approach is the possibility to combine information of different characteristics, and also to facilitate isolation of previously unknown faults as well as faults from which only vague information is available. Furthermore, Bayesian probability theory combined with decision theory provide methods for determining the best action to perform to reduce the effects from faults. Using the Bayesian approach to fault isolation to diagnose large and complex systems may lead to computational and complexity problems. In this thesis, these problems are solved in three different ways. First, equivalence classes are introduced for different faults with equal probability distributions. Second, by using the structure of the computations, efficient storage methods can be used. Finally, if the previous two simplifications are not sufficient, it is shown how the problem can be approximated by partitioning it into a set of sub problems, which each can be efficiently solved using the presented methods. The Bayesian approach to fault isolation is applied to the diagnosis of the gas flow of an automotive diesel engine. Data collected from real driving situations with implemented faults, is used in the evaluation of the methods. Furthermore, the influences of important design parameters are investigated. The experiments show that the proposed Bayesian approach has promising potentials for vehicle diagnosis, and performs well on this real problem. Compared with more classical methods, e.g. structured residuals, the Bayesian approach used here gives higher probability of detection and isolation of the true underlying fault.
36.	Pernestål, Anna, 1978-, et al. (författare) A Comparison of Baysian Approaches to Learning in Fault Isolation 2009 Ingår i: Pattern Recognition Letters. - 0167-8655 .- 1872-7344. Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract Fault isolation is the task of localizing faults in a process, given observations from it. To do this, a model describing the relations between faults and observations is needed. In this paper we focus on learning such models both from training data and from prior knowledge. There are several challenges in learning for fault isolation. The number of data and the available computing resources are often limited. Furthermore, there may be previously unobserved fault patterns. To meet these challenges we take on a Bayesian approach. We compare five different approaches to learning for fault isolation, and evaluate their performance on a real application, namely the diagnosis of an automotive engine.
37.	Pernestål, Anna, 1978-, et al. (författare) Bayesian Fault Diagnosis for Automitive Engines by Combining Data and Process Knowledge 2009 Ingår i: IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics. - : IEEE. - 0018-9472 .- 2168-2909. Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract We consider fault diagnosis of complex systems, motivated by the problem of fault diagnosis of an automotive diesel engine. Previous fault diagnosis algorithms are typically based either on process knowledge, for example a Fault Signature Matrix (FSM), or on training data. Both these methods have their advantages and drawbacks. The main contribution in the present work is that we show how to integrate process knowledge and training data to improve fault diagnosis for automotive processes. We carefully investigate the characteristics of our motivating application, and we derive a new method for fault diagnosis based Bayesian inference. To illustrate the new fault diagnosis method we have applied it to the diagnosis of the gas flow of an automotive engine using data from real driving situations. It is shown that diagnosis performance is improved compared to previous methods using solely data or process knowledge. Finally we study the relation between the new method and previous state of the art methods for fault diagnosis.
38.	Pernestål, Anna, 1978-, et al. (författare) Bayesian Inference by Combining Training Data and Background Knowledge Expressed as Likelihood Constraints 2009 Ingår i: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. - 0888-613X .- 1873-4731. Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract Bayesian inference, or classification, from data is a powerful method for determining states of process when no detailed physical model of the process exists. However, the performance of Bayesian inference from data is dependent on the amount of training data available. In many real applications the amount of training data is limited, and inference results become insufficient. Thus it is important to take other kinds of information into account in the inference as well. In this paper, we consider a general type of background knowledge that appears in many real applications, for example medical diagnosis, technical diagnosis, and econometrics. We show how it can be expressed as constraints on the likelihoods, and provide detailed description of the computations. The method is applied to a diagnosis example, where it is clearly shown how the integration of background knowledge improves diagnosis when training data is limited.
39.	Pernestål, Anna, et al. (författare) Elektrifiering av skogsbrukets vägtransporter : en analys av barriärer och möjligheter 2024 Ingår i: Sammanställning av referat från Transportforum 2024. - Linköping : Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut. ; , s. 318-319 Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract Elektrifiering av transporter är en nyckel för att nå Sveriges och EU:s klimatmål. För tunga godstransporter går utvecklingen fortfarande långsammare. I denna studie analyserar vi barriärer och möjligheter med elektrifiering av tunga godstransporter på väg, och tar fram förslag på aktiviteter för att accelerera omställningen. Vi fokuserar på skogsbrukets transporter, men involverar istället hela värdekedjan i studien. Skogsindustrin är Sveriges största transportköpare, och står för knappt 20% av Sveriges godstransporter på väg. Medeltransportavståndet är ca 90 km. Samtidigt finns utmaningar i att upphämtningsplatser som flyttas kontinuerligt, att transporterna är geografiskt spridda över hela landet, går i tuff terräng, och ända ut i transportnätets kapillärer. Målet i studien är kombinera olika perspektiv för att bygga en systemförståelse för barriärer och möjligheter med elektriska lastbilar. En kombination av metoder använts: litteraturstudie, GIS-analys av dagens transportflöden, workshops för att identifiera orsakssamband, enkätstudie, beräkningar av energi och effekt-efterfrågan, samt simulering av effektbehov över dagen. I litteraturen identifieras hög investeringskostnad, begränsad räckvidd, och låg kunskapsnivå som de största barriärerna för elektrifiering av tunga lastbilstransporter. En bättre driftsekonomi (inom ett par år) identifieras som den största möjligheten. Beräkningar visar att i flertalet applikationer kan kostnadsparitet med diesel kan förväntas inom ett par år. I svenska skogsbranschen identifieras även utmaningar kopplade till planering och logistik. Det uttrycks även en oro för kopplingen till politiska beslut och hur fordonen kommer uppfattas av förare. Den viktigaste möjligheten är fossilfria transporter. I både litteraturen och branschen finns aspekter som samtidigt är barriärer och möjligheter, exempelvis driftkostnad. Driftskostnad beror på många faktorer av olika karaktär: elpris, tillgång till laddning, och förmågan att planera transportuppdrag så att nyttjandegraden blir hög. Detta gör det svårt och osäkert att beräkna driftskostnad. Ett annat exempel är förmågan att tänka annorlunda i logistikupplägg. Aktörer tvingas att tänka om, och de som klarar av att göra det kan få konkurrensfördelar.
40.	Pernestål, Anna, 1978-, et al. (författare) How Will Digitalization Change Road Freight Transport? : Scenarios Tested in Sweden 2021 Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI. - 2071-1050. ; 13:1 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Road freight transport is a key function of modern societies. At the same time, road freight transport accounts for significant emissions. Digitalization, including automation, digitized information, and artificial intelligence, provide opportunities to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and increase service levels in road freight transport. Digitalization may also radically change the business ecosystem in the sector. In this paper, the question, "How will digitalization change the road freight transport landscape?" is addressed by developing four exploratory future scenarios, using Sweden as a case study. The results are based on input from 52 experts. For each of the four scenarios, the impacts on the road freight transport sector are investigated, and opportunities and barriers to achieving a sustainable transportation system in each of the scenarios are discussed. In all scenarios, an increase in vehicle kilometers traveled is predicted, and in three of the four scenarios, significant increases in recycling and urban freight flows are predicted. The scenario development process highlighted how there are important uncertainties in the development of the society that will be highly important for the development of the digitized freight transport landscape. One example is the sustainability paradigm, which was identified as a strategic uncertainty.
41.	Pernestål, Anna, 1978-, et al. (författare) Modeling and Efficient Inference for Troubleshooting Automotive Systems 2009 Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract We consider computer assisted troubleshooting of automotive vehicles, where the objective is to repair the vehicle at as low expected cost as possible. The work has three main contributions: a troubleshooting method that applies to troubleshooting in real environments, the discussion on practical issues in modeling for troubleshooting, and the efficient probability computations. The work is based on a case study of an auxiliary braking system of a modern truck. We apply a decision theoretic approach, consisting of a planner and a diagnoser. Two main challenges in troubleshooting automotive vehicles are the need for disassembling the vehicle during troubleshooting to access parts to repair, and the difficulty to verify that the vehicle is fault free. These facts lead to that probabilities for faults and for future observations must be computed for a system that has been subject to external interventions that cause changes the dependency structure. The probability computations are further complicated due to the mixture of instantaneous and non-instantaneous dependencies. To compute the probabilities, we develop a method based on an algorithm, updateBN, that updates a static BN to account for the external interventions.
42.	Pernestål, Anna, et al. (författare) Modeling and inference for troubleshooting with interventions applied to a heavy truck auxiliary braking system 2012 Ingår i: Engineering applications of artificial intelligence. - : Elsevier. - 0952-1976 .- 1873-6769. ; 25:4, s. 705-719 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Computer assisted troubleshooting with external interventions is considered. The work is motivated by the task of repairing an automotive vehicle at lowest possible expected cost. The main contribution is a decision theoretic troubleshooting system that is developed to handle external interventions. In particular, practical issues in modeling for troubleshooting are discussed, the troubleshooting system is described, and a method for the efficient probability computations is developed. The troubleshooting systems consists of two parts; a planner that relies on AO* search and a diagnoser that utilizes Bayesian networks (BN). The work is based on a case study of an auxiliary braking system of a modern truck. Two main challenges in troubleshooting automotive vehicles are the need for disassembling the vehicle during troubleshooting to access parts to repair, and the difficulty to verify that the vehicle is fault free. These facts lead to that probabilities for faults and for future observations must be computed for a system that has been subject to external interventions that cause changes in the dependency structure. The probability computations are further complicated due to the mixture of instantaneous and non-instantaneous dependencies. To compute the probabilities, we develop a method based on an algorithm, updateBN, that updates a static BN to account for the external interventions.
43.	Pernestål, Anna, et al. (författare) Modeling and Troubleshooting with Interventions Applied to an Auxiliary Truck Braking System 2009 Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2nd IFAC Workshop on Dependable Control of Discrete Systems (DCDS). - 9783902661449 ; , s. 251-256 Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract We consider computer assisted troubleshooting of complex systems, where the objective is to identify the cause of a failure and repair the system at as low expected cost as possible. Three main challenges are: the need for disassembling the system during troubleshooting, the difficulty to verify that the system is fault free, and the dependencies in between components and observations. We present a method that can return a response anytime, which allows us to obtain the best result given the available time. The work is based on a case study of an auxiliary braking system of a modern truck. We highlight practical issues related to model building and troubleshooting in a real environment.
44.	Pernestål, Anna, 1978-, et al. (författare) Non-stationary Dynamic Bayesian Networks in Modeling of Troubleshooting Process 2009 Ingår i: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. - 0888-613X .- 1873-4731. Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract In research and industry, decision theoretic troubleshooting of complex automotive systems has recently gained increased interest. With suitable troubleshooting, uptime can be increased and repair times shortened. To perform decision theoretic troubleshooting, probability computations are needed. In this work we consider computation of these probabilities under external interventions, which changes dependency relations. We apply a non-stationary dynamic Bayesian network (nsDBN), where the interventions so called events. The events change dependency relations, and drive the nsDBN forward. In the paper, we present how to build models using event driven nsDBN, how to perform inference, and how to use the method in troubleshooting. Event driven nsDBN can be used to model any process subject to interventions, and in particular it opens for solving more general troubleshooting problems than previously presented in literature.
45.	Pernestål, Anna, 1978- (författare) Probabilistic Fault Diagnosis with Automotive Applications 2009 Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract The aim of this thesis is to contribute to improved diagnosis of automotive vehicles. The work is driven by case studies, where problems and challenges are identified. To solve these problems, theoretically sound and general methods are developed. The methods are then applied to the real world systems.To fulfill performance requirements automotive vehicles are becoming increasingly complex products. This makes them more difficult to diagnose. At the same time, the requirements on the diagnosis itself are steadily increasing. Environmental legislation requires that smaller deviations from specified operation must be detected earlier. More accurate diagnostic methods can be used to reduce maintenance costs and increase uptime. Improved diagnosis can also reduce safety risks related to vehicle operation.Fault diagnosis is the task of identifying possible faults given current observations from the systems. To do this, the internal relations between observations and faults must be identified. In complex systems, such as automotive vehicles, finding these relations is a most challenging problem due to several sources of uncertainty. Observations from the system are often hidden in considerable levels of noise. The systems are complicated to model both since they are complex and since they are operated in continuously changing surroundings. Furthermore, since faults typically are rare, and sometimes never described, it is often difficult to get hold of enough data to learn the relations from.Due to the several sources of uncertainty in fault diagnosis of automotive systems, a probabilistic approach is used, both to find the internal relations, and to identify the faults possibly present in the system given the current observations. To do this successfully, all available information is integrated in the computations.Both on-board and off-board diagnosis are considered. The two tasks may seem different in nature: on-board diagnosis is performed without human integration, while the off-board diagnosis is mainly based on the interactivity with a mechanic. On the other hand, both tasks regard the same vehicle, and information from the on-board diagnosis system may be useful also for off-board diagnosis. The probabilistic methods are general, and it is natural to consider both tasks.The thesis contributes in three main areas. First, in Paper 1 and 2, methods are developed for combining training data and expert knowledge of different kinds to compute probabilities for faults. These methods are primarily developed with on-board diagnosis in mind, but are also applicable to off-board diagnosis. The methods are general, and can be used not only in diagnosis of technical system, but also in many other applications, including medical diagnosis and econometrics, where both data and expert knowledge are present.The second area concerns inference in off-board diagnosis and troubleshooting, and the contribution consists in the methods developed in Paper 3 and 4. The methods handle probability computations in systems subject to external interventions, and in particular systems that include both instantaneous and non-instantaneous dependencies. They are based on the theory of Bayesian networks, and include event-driven non-stationary dynamic Bayesian networks (nsDBN) and an efficient inference algorithm for troubleshooting based on static Bayesian networks. The framework of nsDBN event-driven nsDBN is applicable to all kinds of problems concerning inference under external interventions.The third contribution area is Bayesian learning from data in the diagnosis application. The contribution is the comparison and evaluation of five Bayesian methods for learning in fault diagnosis in Paper 5. The special challenges in diagnosis related to learning from data are considered. It is shown how the five methods should be tailored to be applicable to fault diagnosis problems.To summarize, the five papers in the thesis have shown how several challenges in automotive diagnosis can be handled by using probabilistic methods. Handling such challenges with probabilistic methods has a great potential. The probabilistic methods provide a framework for utilizing allinformation available, also if it is in different forms and. The probabilities computed can be combined with decision theoretic methods to determine the appropriate action after the discovery of reduced system functionality due to faults.
46.	Pernestål, Anna, et al. (författare) Using Prior Information in Bayesian Inference - with Application to Diagnosis 2007 Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract In this paper we consider Bayesian inference using training data combined with prior information. The prior information considered is response and causality information which gives constraints on the posterior distribution. It is shown how these constraints can be expressed in terms of the prior probability distribution, and how to perform the computations. Further, it is discussed how this prior information improves the inference.
47.	Pernestål, Anna, 1978-, et al. (författare) Will digitalization change freight transport? : Future scenarios for the digitized freight transport landscape with Sweden as a case study 2019 Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract Digitalization generates many opportunities to improve efficiency and service levels. New technologies include e.g. automation, digitalized information flows, and AI and machine learning. There are several studies on digitalization and automation may affect passenger transport, but the research studies on the effects of digitalization on freight transport are still very limited.In the EU, 75% of total freight ton-km are the result of road freight transport (Eurostat 2018). Heavy trucks generate around 17% of the CO2 emissions from all European road transport. The emissions from heavy trucks make up approximately 4% of the total CO2 emissions in the EU (European comission 2016). In Sweden, road freight transport is the dominating mode for domestic transport with almost 90% of the total goods volume being carried by trucks. Only in Stockholm, there are about 100 000 truck deliveries every week. Thus, road freight transport constitutes an important piece in a future sustainable transport system. At the same time, the industry is fragmented and low margin which leads to limited innovation capacity. There is potential for improvement for goods transport, but also barriers that may hinder the development.What will happen with road freight transport in the era of digitalization? There are opportunities to increase efficiency by using data. It is also likely that digitalization, including increased e-commerce, will increase transport demand. This contributes with a set of future scenarios for digitalization of the road freight transport sector, including long haulage, city distribution and last mile deliveries to end users. Based on the scenarios the opportunities and barriers to reach a sustainable digitalized transport system are analyzed.The scenarios form a platform for academia as well as public and private sector for strategic discussions and decisions. They also form a starting point for identifying knowledge gaps and future research questions. The scenarios are developed by using an explorative scenario development approach, the Intuitive Logic method. This approach is useful in situations when the future development is inherently uncertain and when there is not one determined future. Instead, there are several plausible futures which there is a value to explore in order to be prepared for future events and to improve the understanding of causal processes shaping the future. The work has been performed by an expert group and a smaller analysis team. The expert group involved more than 45 persons from more than 30 organizations, including municipalities, road authorities, vehicle manufacturers (large enterprises as well as start-ups), logistics companies, operators, transport buyers, ICT companies, and research organizations. The expert group met for three workshops, with the themes 1) trend analysis, 2) definition of strategic uncertainties and drafting scenarios, and 3) consequence analysis. The analysis team, consisting of the five authors and two future strategists, has analyzed, refined and condensed the material from the expert group.In the work, the most important trends and uncertainties for the development of the digitalized road freight transport landscape are identified. Two strategic uncertainties are selected to form the basis for the scenarios. These axes are 1) whether the private sector or the public sector leads the development, and 2) whether climate actions and sustainability become the top priority on the political agenda and in society in general, or other goals (e.g. welfare, economy, immigration) are more important. These two axes are crossed to form four future scenarios. Examples of aspects that are different in the different scenarios are the development of circular economy, the development and implementation of automation, the structure of infrastructure investments, and the development of customer behavior. In the paper the scenarios are describe in more detail, including a narrative story. The consequences on the road freight transport sector in each scenario are analyzed, including perspectives such as: who are the main actors? What is the impact on business models and value distribution? Does the scenario lead to a sustainable development?
48.	Pernestål Brenden, Anna, 1978-, et al. (författare) Effects of driverless vehicles : Comparing simulations to get a broader picture 2019 Ingår i: European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. - Delft : Delft University of Technology. - 1567-7133 .- 1567-7141. ; 19:1, s. 1-23 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Driverless vehicles have the potential to significantly affect the transport system, society, and environment. However, there are still many unanswered questions regarding what the development will look like, and there are several contradictory forces. This paper addresses the effects of driverless vehicles by combining the results from 26 simulation studies. Each simulation study focuses on a particular case, e.g. a certain mobility concept or geographical region. By combining and analysing the results from the 26 simulation studies, an overall picture of the effects of driverless vehicles is presented. In the paper, the following perspectives are considered: what types of application of driverless vehicles have been studied in literature; what effects these simulation studies predict; and what research gaps still exist related to the effects of driverless vehicles. The analysis shows that it is primarily driverless taxi applications in urban areas that have been studied. Some parameters, such as trip cost and waiting time, show small variations between the simulation studies. Other parameters, such as vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT), show larger variations and depend heavily on the assumptions concerning value of time and level of sharing. To increase the understanding of system level effects of driverless vehicles, simulations of more complex applications and aspects such as land use, congestion and energy consumption are considered.
49.	Pernestål Brenden, Anna, 1978-, et al. (författare) Future scenarios for self-driving vehicles in Sweden 2017 Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract The question is not if, but rather when SDVs will be common on our streets and roads, and if they will change our way of living, and if so, how? As we are in a potential mobility shift, and decisions made today will affect the future development, understanding possibilities and challenges for the future is important for many stakeholders. To this end a scenario-based future study was performed to derive a common platform for initiation of future research and innovation projects concerning SDVs in Sweden.A motivation for the study is to shed light on how demography, geography and political landscape can affect the development of new mobility services. Since there are many different forces that drive the development, often uncertain and sometimes in conflict with each other, a scenario planning approach was chosen. The work has been performed by an expert group and a smaller analysis team.The expert group has involved nearly 40 persons from 20 transport organizations, including public authorities, lawyers, city planners, researchers, transport service suppliers, and vehicle manufacturers. The expert group met three times, each time focusing on a specific theme:trend analysis,defining scenario axes of uncertainty, andconsequence analysis.The uncertainties that were identified as most important for the development of SDVs in Sweden are:whether the sharing economy becomes a new norm or not, andwhether city planners, authorities and politicians will be proactive in the development of cities and societies or not, especially regarding the transportation system.This led to four scenarios:“Same, same but all the difference” – a green, individualistic society,“Sharing is the new black” – a governmentally driven innovation society based on sharing,“Follow the path” – an individualistic society based on development in the same direction as today, and“What you need is what you get” – a commercially driven innovation society where sharing is a key.In the paper, we describe the scenarios and the process to derive them in more detail. We also present an analysis of the consequences for the development of SDVs in the four scenarios, including predictions concerning pace of development, level of self-driving, fleet size, travel demand and vehicle kilometers travelled. The paper also includes a discussion and comparison with other studies on the development of SDVs in the US, Europe and Asia.
50.	Pernestål Brenden, Anna, 1978-, et al. (författare) Off-peak City Logistics – A Case Study in Stockholm 2017 Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract Two heavy trucks have been operated in Stockholm city center during night time for e period of one and a half years. New technology has been tested: one the trucks was an electric hybrid with zone management and one was a PIEK certified biogas truck. The two trucks have been operated in different delivery schemes: on dedicated and one consolidated. The off-peak trial has been assessed in from four different perspectives: noise, transport efficiency, users and policy, and socioeconomic aspects. In addition, a literature survey has been performed. Noise produced while travelling with the two trucks tested is not disturbing. The main challenge is noise produced during unloading, and in particular in areas where the background noise is low.Transportation efficiency is improved from several perspectives compared with daytime deliveries: transport speed increased, fuel consumption decreased and service times decreased. However, one conclusion from the project is that it is challenging to compare daytime deliveries with off-peak deliveries for an individual truck, since the routing will be different depending on the time of the day even if the delivery points are the same. The reason is that the routing during daytime will be optimized to take congestion into account. Therefore, if general conclusions are to be drawn, data from more different trucks in different delivery schemes need to be collected and analyzed.Stakeholder interviews showed that the most important benefits are increased efficiency, shorter travel and deliver times, higher productivity both for carriers and receivers, less environmental impacts and fuel cost savings, as well as better working conditions when trucks are moved from rush hours to off-peak hours. The most important social costs are increased noise levels and noise disturbances, additional staff, equipment and wage costs as well as higher risks in handling goods deliveries at night times, especially in the case of unassisted deliveries. In general, the benefits exceed the costs.From the socio-economic analysis it is clear that the dominating type of external cost for daytime deliveries is contribution to congestion. This cost is reduced is nearly eliminated during off-peak deliveries. In addition, off-peak deliveries reduces CO2 emissions, but even more the emissions of air pollutants and can therefore contribute significantly to improving local air quality. The cost of noise is more than twice as big as for daytime deliveries.From the city’s perspective the most important remaining challenges are related to 1) Noise measurements and surveillance, 2) general requirements and surveillance, for example concerning vehicles, fuels, and emission levels that are to be allowed, 3) The responsibility for potential additional costs related to infrastructural changes needed. The overall conclusion from the project is that the benefits from off-peak deliveries exceed the costs. The results from the project suggest that the concept of off-peak deliveries is beneficiary in the Stockholm region, and the off-peak delivery program is suggested to continue and be scaled up to involve more vehicles and other types of goods. During the upscaling it is relevant to continue to study effects on transport efficiency, noise levels, and potential business barriers that may arise.

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