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1.
  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (författare)
  • Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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2.
  • Adrianto, Indra, et al. (författare)
  • Association of a functional variant downstream of TNFAIP3 with systemic lupus erythematosus
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 43:3, s. 253-258
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE, MIM152700) is an autoimmune disease characterized by self-reactive antibodies resulting in systemic inflammation and organ failure. TNFAIP3, encoding the ubiquitin-modifying enzyme A20, is an established susceptibility locus for SLE. By fine mapping and genomic re-sequencing in ethnically diverse populations, we fully characterized the TNFAIP3 risk haplotype and identified a TT>A polymorphic dinucleotide (deletion T followed by a T to A transversion) associated with SLE in subjects of European (P = 1.58 x 10(-8), odds ratio = 1.70) and Korean (P = 8.33 x 10(-10), odds ratio = 2.54) ancestry. This variant, located in a region of high conservation and regulatory potential, bound a nuclear protein complex composed of NF-kappa B subunits with reduced avidity. Further, compared with the non-risk haplotype, the haplotype carrying this variant resulted in reduced TNFAIP3 mRNA and A20 protein expression. These results establish this TT>A variant as the most likely functional polymorphism responsible for the association between TNFAIP3 and SLE.
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3.
  • Almeida-Brasil, Celline C., et al. (författare)
  • Flares after hydroxychloroquine reduction or discontinuation : results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 81:3, s. 370-378
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • OBJECTIVES: To evaluate systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares following hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) reduction or discontinuation versus HCQ maintenance. METHODS: We analysed prospective data from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) cohort, enrolled from 33 sites within 15 months of SLE diagnosis and followed annually (1999-2019). We evaluated person-time contributed while on the initial HCQ dose ('maintenance'), comparing this with person-time contributed after a first dose reduction, and after a first HCQ discontinuation. We estimated time to first flare, defined as either subsequent need for therapy augmentation, increase of ≥4 points in the SLE Disease Activity Index-2000, or hospitalisation for SLE. We estimated adjusted HRs (aHRs) with 95% CIs associated with reducing/discontinuing HCQ (vs maintenance). We also conducted separate multivariable hazard regressions in each HCQ subcohort to identify factors associated with flare. RESULTS: We studied 1460 (90% female) patients initiating HCQ. aHRs for first SLE flare were 1.20 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.38) and 1.56 (95% CI 1.31 to 1.86) for the HCQ reduction and discontinuation groups, respectively, versus HCQ maintenance. Patients with low educational level were at particular risk of flaring after HCQ discontinuation (aHR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.87). Prednisone use at time-zero was associated with over 1.5-fold increase in flare risk in all HCQ subcohorts. CONCLUSIONS: SLE flare risk was higher after HCQ taper/discontinuation versus HCQ maintenance. Decisions to maintain, reduce or stop HCQ may affect specific subgroups differently, including those on prednisone and/or with low education. Further study of special groups (eg, seniors) may be helpful.
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4.
  • Almeida-Brasil, Celline C., et al. (författare)
  • Retinal toxicity in a multinational inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus on hydroxychloroquine
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Lupus Science and Medicine. - : BMJ. - 2053-8790. ; 9:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective To evaluate hydroxychloroquine (HCQ)-related retinal toxicity in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort. Methods Data were collected at annual study visits between 1999 and 2019. We followed patients with incident SLE from first visit on HCQ (time zero) up to time of retinal toxicity (outcome), death, loss-to-follow-up or end of study. Potential retinal toxicity was identified from SLICC Damage Index scores; cases were confirmed with chart review. Using cumulative HCQ duration as the time axis, we constructed univariate Cox regression models to assess if covariates (ie, HCQ daily dose/kg, sex, race/ethnicity, age at SLE onset, education, body mass index, renal damage, chloroquine use) were associated with HCQ-related retinal toxicity. Results We studied 1460 patients (89% female, 52% white). Retinal toxicity was confirmed in 11 patients (incidence 1.0 per 1000 person-years, 0.8% overall). Average cumulative time on HCQ in those with retinal toxicity was 7.4 (SD 3.2) years; the first case was detected 4 years after HCQ initiation. Risk of retinal toxicity was numerically higher in older patients at SLE diagnosis (univariate HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.09). Conclusions This is the first assessment of HCQ and retinal disease in incident SLE. We did not see any cases of retinopathy within the first 4 years of HCQ. Cumulative HCQ may be associated with increased risk. Ophthalmology monitoring (and formal assessment of cases of potential toxicity, by a retinal specialist) remains important, especially in patients on HCQ for 10+ years, those needing higher doses and those of older age at SLE diagnosis.
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5.
  • Barber, Megan R.W., et al. (författare)
  • Economic Evaluation of Damage Accrual in an International Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Inception Cohort Using a Multistate Model Approach
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Arthritis Care and Research. - : Wiley. - 2151-464X .- 2151-4658. ; 72:12, s. 1800-1808
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: There is a paucity of data regarding health care costs associated with damage accrual in systemic lupus erythematosus. The present study was undertaken to describe costs associated with damage states across the disease course using multistate modeling. Methods: Patients from 33 centers in 11 countries were enrolled in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort within 15 months of diagnosis. Annual data on demographics, disease activity, damage (SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI]), hospitalizations, medications, dialysis, and selected procedures were collected. Ten-year cumulative costs (Canadian dollars) were estimated by multiplying annual costs associated with each SDI state by the expected state duration using a multistate model. Results: A total of 1,687 patients participated; 88.7% were female, 49.0% were white, mean ± SD age at diagnosis was 34.6 ± 13.3 years, and mean time to follow-up was 8.9 years (range 0.6–18.5 years). Mean annual costs were higher for those with higher SDI scores as follows: $22,006 (Canadian) (95% confidence interval [95% CI] $16,662, $27,350) for SDI scores ≥5 versus $1,833 (95% CI $1,134, $2,532) for SDI scores of 0. Similarly, 10-year cumulative costs were higher for those with higher SDI scores at the beginning of the 10-year interval as follows: $189,073 (Canadian) (95% CI $142,318, $235,827) for SDI scores ≥5 versus $21,713 (95% CI $13,639, $29,788) for SDI scores of 0. Conclusion: Patients with the highest SDI scores incur 10-year cumulative costs that are ~9-fold higher than those with the lowest SDI scores. By estimating the damage trajectory and incorporating annual costs, data on damage can be used to estimate future costs, which is critical knowledge for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of novel therapies.
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6.
  • Barber, Megan R.W., et al. (författare)
  • Remission and low disease activity are associated with lower healthcare costs : results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - 0003-4967.
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives: This study aims to determine the independent impact of definitions of remission/low disease activity (LDA) on direct/indirect costs (DCs, ICs) in a multicentre inception cohort. Methods: Patients from 31 centres in 10 countries were enrolled within 15 months of diagnosis and assessed annually. Five mutually exclusive disease activity states (DAS) were defined as (1) remission off-treatment: clinical (c) SLEDAI-2K=0, without prednisone/immunosuppressants; (2) remission on-treatment: cSLEDAI-2K=0, prednisone ≤5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants; (3) LDA-Toronto Cohort (TC): cSLEDAI-2K≤2, without prednisone/immunosuppressants; (4) modified lupus LDA state (mLLDAS): SLEDAI-2K≤4, no activity in major organs/systems, no new activity, prednisone ≤7.5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants and (5) active: all remaining assessments. At each assessment, patients were stratified into the most stringent DAS fulfilled and the proportion of time in a DAS since cohort entry was determined. Annual DCs/ICs (2021 Canadian dollars) were based on healthcare use and lost workforce/non-workforce productivity over the preceding year. The association between the proportion of time in a DAS and annual DC/IC was examined through multivariable random-effects linear regressions. Results: 1692 patients were followed a mean of 9.7 years; 49.0% of assessments were active. Remission/LDA (per 25% increase in time in a remission/LDA state vs active) were associated with lower annual DC/IC: remission off-treatment (DC -$C1372; IC -$C2507), remission on-treatment (DC -$C973; IC -$C2604,) LDA-TC (DC -$C1158) and mLLDAS (DC -$C1040). There were no cost differences between remission/LDA states. Conclusions: Our data suggest that systemic lupus erythematosus patients who achieve remission, both off and on-therapy, and reductions in disease activity incur lower costs than those experiencing persistent disease activity.
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7.
  • Bergenzaun, Lill, et al. (författare)
  • Assessing left ventricular systolic function in shock : evaluation of echocardiographic parameters in intensive care
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Critical Care. - : BioMed Central. - 1364-8535 .- 1466-609X. ; 15:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • INTRODUCTION: Assessing left ventricular (LV) systolic function in a rapid and reliable way can be challenging in the critically ill patient. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and reliability of, as well as the association between, commonly used LV systolic parameters, by using serial transthoracic echocardiography (TTE). METHODS: Fifty patients with shock and mechanical ventilation were included. TTE examinations were performed daily for a total of 7 days. Methods used to assess LV systolic function were visually estimated, "eyeball" ejection fraction (EBEF), the Simpson single-plane method, mean atrioventricular plane displacement (AVPDm), septal tissue velocity imaging (TDIs), and velocity time integral in the left ventricular outflow tract (VTI). RESULTS: EBEF, AVPDm, TDIs, VTI, and the Simpson were obtained in 100%, 100%, 99%, 95% and 93%, respectively, of all possible examinations. The correlations between the Simpson and EBEF showed r values for all 7 days ranging from 0.79 to 0.95 (P < 0.01). the Simpson correlations with the other LV parameters showed substantial variation over time, with the poorest results seen for TDIs and AVPDm. The repeatability was best for VTI (interobserver coefficient of variation (CV) 4.8%, and intraobserver CV, 3.1%), and AVPDm (5.3% and 4.4%, respectively), and worst for the Simpson method (8.2% and 10.6%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: EBEF and AVPDm provided the best, and Simpson, the worst feasibility when assessing LV systolic function in a population of mechanically ventilated, hemodynamically unstable patients. Additionally, the Simpson showed the poorest repeatability. We suggest that EBEF can be used instead of single-plane Simpson when assessing LV ejection fraction in this category of patients. TDIs and AVPDm, as markers of longitudinal function of the LV, are not interchangeable with LV ejection fraction.
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8.
  • Bergenzaun, Lill, et al. (författare)
  • High-sensitive cardiac Troponin T is superior to echocardiography in predicting 1-year mortality in patients with SIRS and shock in intensive care.
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: BMC Anesthesiology. - : BioMed Central. - 1471-2253 .- 1471-2253. ; 12:25
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Left ventricular (LV) dysfunction is well documented in the critically ill. We assessed 1-year mortality in relation to cardiac biomarkers and LV function parameters by echocardiography in patients with shock. METHODS: A prospective, observational, cohort study of 49 patients. B-natriuretic peptide (BNP), highsensitive troponin T (hsTNT) and transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) were assessed within 12 h of study inclusion. LV systolic function was measured by ejection fraction (LVEF), mean atrioventricular plane displacement (AVPDm), peak systolic tissue Doppler velocity imaging (TDIs) and velocity time integral in the LV outflow tract (LVOT VTI). LV diastolic function was evaluated by transmitral pulsed Doppler (E, A, E/A, E-deceleration time), tissue Doppler indices (e, a, E/e) and left atrial volume (La volume). APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) and SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) scores were calculated. RESULTS: hsTNT was significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors (60 [17.0-99.5] vs 168 [89.8-358] ng/l, p = 0.003). Other univariate predictors of mortality were APACHE II (p = 0.009), E/e (p = 0.023), SOFA (p = 0.024) and age (p = 0.031). Survivors and nonsurvivors did not differ regarding BNP (p = 0.26) or any LV systolic function parameter (LVEF p = 0.87, AVPDm p = 0.087, TDIs p = 0.93, LVOT VTI p = 0.18). Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified hsTNT (p = 0.010) as the only independent predictor of 1-year mortality; adjusted odds ratio 2.0 (95% CI 1.2- 3.5). CONCLUSIONS: hsTNT was the only independent predictor of 1-year mortality in patients with shock. Neither BNP nor echocardiographic parameters had an independent prognostic value. Further studies are needed to establish the clinical significance of elevated hsTNT in patients in shock.
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9.
  • Bergenzaun, Lill, et al. (författare)
  • Mitral annular plane systolic excursion (MAPSE) in shock: a valuable echocardiographic parameter in intensive care patients : Cardiovascular Ultrasound
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Cardiovascular Ultrasound. - : BioMed Central. - 1476-7120. ; 11:16
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Assessing left ventricular (LV) dysfunction by echocardiography in ICU patients is common. The aim of this study was to investigate mitral annular plane systolic excursion (MAPSE) in critically ill patients with shock and its relation to LV systolic and diastolic function, myocardial injury and to outcome. METHODS: In a prospective, observational, cohort study we enrolled 50 patients with SIRS and shock despite fluid resuscitation. Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) measuring LV function was performed within 12 hours after admission and daily for a 7-day observation period. TTE and laboratory measurements were related to 28-day mortality. RESULTS: MAPSE on day 1 correlated significantly with LV ejection fraction (LVEF), tissue Doppler indices of LV diastolic function (é, E/é) and high-sensitive troponin T (hsTNT) (p< 0.001, p= 0.039, p= 0.009, p= 0.003 respectively) whereas LVEF did not correlate significantly with any marker of LV diastolic function or myocardial injury. Compared to survivors, non-survivors had a significantly lower MAPSE (8 [IQR 7.5-11] versus 11 [IQR 8.9-13] mm; p= 0.028). Other univariate predictors were age (p=0.033), hsTNT (p=0.014) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores (p=0.007). By multivariate analysis MAPSE (OR 0.6 (95% CI 0.5- 0.9), p= 0.015) and SOFA score (OR 1.6 (95% CI 1.1- 2.3), p= 0.018) were identified as independent predictors of mortality. Daily measurements showed that MAPSE, as sole echocardiographic marker, was significantly lower in most days in non-survivors (p<0.05 at day 1-2, 4-6). CONCLUSIONS: MAPSE seemed to reflect LV systolic and diastolic function as well as myocardial injury in critically ill patients with shock. The combination of MAPSE and SOFA added to the predictive value for 28-day mortality.
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10.
  • Bernatsky, Sasha, et al. (författare)
  • Cancer risk in systemic lupus: An updated international multi-centre cohort study
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Journal of Autoimmunity. - : Elsevier BV. - 0896-8411. ; 42, s. 130-135
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: To update estimates of cancer risk in SLE relative to the general population. Methods: A multisite international SLE cohort was linked with regional tumor registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated as the ratio of observed to expected cancers. Results: Across 30 centres, 16,409 patients were observed for 121,283 (average 7.4) person years. In total, 644 cancers occurred. Some cancers, notably hematologic malignancies, were substantially increased (SIR 3.02, 95% confidence interval, CI, 2.48, 3.63), particularly non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, NHL (SIR 4.39, 95% CI 3.46, 5.49) and leukemia. In addition, increased risks of cancer of the vulva (SIR 3.78, 95% CI 1.52, 7.78), lung (SIR 1.30, 95% CI 1.04, 1.60), thyroid (SIR 1.76, 95% CI 1.13, 2.61) and possibly liver (SIR 1.87, 95% CI 0.97, 3.27) were suggested. However, a decreased risk was estimated for breast (SIR 0.73, 95% CI 0.61-0.88), endometrial (SIR 0.44, 95% CI 0.23-0.77), and possibly ovarian cancers (0.64, 95% Cl 0.34-1.10). The variability of comparative rates across different cancers meant that only a small increased risk was estimated across all cancers (SIR 1.14, 95% CI 1.05, 1.23). Conclusion: These data estimate only a small increased risk in SLE (versus the general population) for cancer over-all. However, there is clearly an increased risk of NHL and cancers of the vulva, lung, thyroid, and possibly liver. It remains unclear to what extent the association with NHL is mediated by innate versus exogenous factors. Similarly, the etiology of the decreased breast, endometrial, and possibly ovarian cancer risk is uncertain, though investigations are ongoing. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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11.
  • Bernatsky, Sasha, et al. (författare)
  • Lymphoma risk in systemic lupus: effects of disease activity versus treatment
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 73:1, s. 138-142
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective To examine disease activity versus treatment as lymphoma risk factors in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods We performed case-cohort analyses within a multisite SLE cohort. Cancers were ascertained by regional registry linkages. Adjusted HRs for lymphoma were generated in regression models, for time-dependent exposures to immunomodulators (cyclophosphamide, azathioprine, methotrexate, mycophenolate, antimalarial drugs, glucocorticoids) demographics, calendar year, Sjogren's syndrome, SLE duration and disease activity. We used adjusted mean SLE Disease Activity Index scores (SLEDAI-2K) over time, and drugs were treated both categorically (ever/never) and as estimated cumulative doses. Results We studied 75 patients with lymphoma (72 non-Hodgkin, three Hodgkin) and 4961 cancer-free controls. Most lymphomas were of B-cell origin. As is seen in the general population, lymphoma risk in SLE was higher in male than female patients and increased with age. Lymphomas occurred a mean of 12.4years (median 10.9) after SLE diagnosis. Unadjusted and adjusted analyses failed to show a clear association of disease activity with lymphoma risk. There was a suggestion of greater exposure to cyclophosphamide and to higher cumulative steroids in lymphoma cases than the cancer-free controls. Conclusions In this large SLE sample, there was a suggestion of higher lymphoma risk with exposure to cyclophosphamide and high cumulative steroids. Disease activity itself was not clearly associated with lymphoma risk. Further work will focus on genetic profiles that might interact with medication exposure to influence lymphoma risk in SLE.
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12.
  • Bourre-Tessier, Josiane, et al. (författare)
  • Electrocardiographic Findings in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Data From an International Inception Cohort
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Arthritis Care and Research. - : Wiley. - 2151-4658 .- 2151-464X. ; 67:1, s. 128-135
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective. To estimate the early prevalence of various electrocardiographic (EKG) abnormalities in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and to evaluate possible associations between repolarization changes (increased corrected QT [QTc] and QT dispersion [QTd]) and clinical and laboratory variables, including the anti-Ro/SSA level and specificity (52 or 60 kd). Methods. We studied adult SLE patients from 19 centers participating in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Registry. Demographics, disease activity (Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 [SLEDAI-2K]), disease damage (SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI]), and laboratory data from the baseline or first followup visit were assessed. Multivariate logistic and linear regression models were used to asses for any cross-sectional associations between anti-Ro/SSA and EKG repolarization abnormalities. Results. For the 779 patients included, mean +/- SD age was 35.2 +/- 13.8 years, 88.4% were women, and mean +/- SD disease duration was 10.5 +/- 14.5 months. Mean +/- SD SLEDAI-2K score was 5.4 +/- 5.6 and mean +/- SD SDI score was 0.5 +/- 1.0. EKG abnormalities were frequent and included nonspecific ST-T changes (30.9%), possible left ventricular hypertrophy (5.4%), and supraventricular arrhythmias (1.3%). A QTc >= 440 msec was found in 15.3%, while a QTc >= 460 msec was found in 5.3%. Mean +/- SD QTd was 34.2 +/- 14.7 msec and QTd >= 40 msec was frequent (38.1%). Neither the specificity nor the level of anti-Ro/SSA was associated with QTc duration or QTd, although confidence intervals were wide. Total SDI was significantly associated with a QTc interval exceeding 440 msec (odds ratio 1.38 [95% confidence interval 1.06, 1.79]). Conclusion. A substantial proportion of patients with recent-onset SLE exhibited repolarization abnormalities, although severe abnormalities were rare.
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13.
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14.
  • Chew, Christine, et al. (författare)
  • Lower vitamin D is associated with metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance in systemic lupus : Data from an international inception cohort
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Rheumatology (United Kingdom). - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1462-0324 .- 1462-0332. ; 60:10, s. 4737-4747
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives: Vitamin D (25(OH)D) deficiency and metabolic syndrome (MetS) may both contribute to increased cardiovascular risk in SLE. We aimed to examine the association of demographic factors, SLE phenotype, therapy and vitamin D levels with MetS and insulin resistance. Methods: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) enrolled patients recently diagnosed with SLE (<15 months) from 33 centres across 11 countries from 2000. Clinical, laboratory and therapeutic data were collected. Vitamin D level was defined according to tertiles based on distribution across this cohort, which were set at T1 (10-36 nmol/l), T2 (37-60 nmol/l) and T3 (61-174 nmol/l). MetS was defined according to the 2009 consensus statement from the International Diabetes Federation. Insulin resistance was determined using the HOMA-IR model. Linear and logistic regressions were used to assess the association of variables with vitamin D levels. Results: Of the 1847 patients, 1163 (63%) had vitamin D measured and 398 (34.2%) subjects were in the lowest 25(OH)D tertile. MetS was present in 286 of 860 (33%) patients whose status could be determined. Patients with lower 25(OH)D were more likely to have MetS and higher HOMA-IR. The MetS components, hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia and decreased high-density lipoprotein (HDL) were all significantly associated with lower 25(OH)D. Increased average glucocorticoid exposure was associated with higher insulin resistance. Conclusions: MetS and insulin resistance are associated with lower vitamin D in patients with SLE. Further studies could determine whether vitamin D repletion confers better control of these cardiovascular risk factors and improve long-term outcomes in SLE.
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15.
  • Choi, May Yee, et al. (författare)
  • Longitudinal analysis of ANA in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 0003-4967 .- 1468-2060. ; 81:8, s. 1143-1150
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives A perception derived from cross-sectional studies of small systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cohorts is that there is a marked discrepancy between antinuclear antibody (ANA) assays, which impacts on clinicians' approach to diagnosis and follow-up. We compared three ANA assays in a longitudinal analysis of a large international incident SLE cohort retested regularly and followed for 5 years. Methods Demographic, clinical and serological data was from 805 SLE patients at enrolment, year 3 and 5. Two HEp-2 indirect immunofluorescence assays (IFA1, IFA2), an ANA ELISA, and SLE-related autoantibodies were performed in one laboratory. Frequencies of positivity, titres or absorbance units (AU), and IFA patterns were compared using McNemar, Wilcoxon and kappa statistics, respectively. Results At enrolment, ANA positivity (≥1:80) was 96.1% by IFA1 (median titre 1:1280 (IQR 1:640-1:5120)), 98.3% by IFA2 (1:2560 (IQR 1:640-1:5120)) and 96.6% by ELISA (176.3 AU (IQR 106.4 AU-203.5 AU)). At least one ANA assay was positive for 99.6% of patients at enrolment. At year 5, ANA positivity by IFAs (IFA1 95.2%; IFA2 98.9%) remained high, while there was a decrease in ELISA positivity (91.3%, p<0.001). Overall, there was >91% agreement in ANA positivity at all time points and ≥71% agreement in IFA patterns between IFA1 and IFA2. Conclusion In recent-onset SLE, three ANA assays demonstrated commutability with a high proportion of positivity and titres or AU. However, over 5 years follow-up, there was modest variation in ANA assay performance. In clinical situations where the SLE diagnosis is being considered, a negative test by either the ELISA or HEp-2 IFA may require reflex testing.
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16.
  • Choi, May Yee, et al. (författare)
  • Machine learning identifies clusters of longitudinal autoantibody profiles predictive of systemic lupus erythematosus disease outcomes
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - 0003-4967. ; 82:7, s. 927-936
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives A novel longitudinal clustering technique was applied to comprehensive autoantibody data from a large, well-characterised, multinational inception systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cohort to determine profiles predictive of clinical outcomes. Methods Demographic, clinical and serological data from 805 patients with SLE obtained within 15 months of diagnosis and at 3-year and 5-year follow-up were included. For each visit, sera were assessed for 29 antinuclear antibodies (ANA) immunofluorescence patterns and 20 autoantibodies. K-means clustering on principal component analysis-transformed longitudinal autoantibody profiles identified discrete phenotypic clusters. One-way analysis of variance compared cluster enrolment demographics and clinical outcomes at 10-year follow-up. Cox proportional hazards model estimated the HR for survival adjusting for age of disease onset. Results Cluster 1 (n=137, high frequency of anti-Smith, anti-U1RNP, AC-5 (large nuclear speckled pattern) and high ANA titres) had the highest cumulative disease activity and immunosuppressants/biologics use at year 10. Cluster 2 (n=376, low anti-double stranded DNA (dsDNA) and ANA titres) had the lowest disease activity, frequency of lupus nephritis and immunosuppressants/biologics use. Cluster 3 (n=80, highest frequency of all five antiphospholipid antibodies) had the highest frequency of seizures and hypocomplementaemia. Cluster 4 (n=212) also had high disease activity and was characterised by multiple autoantibody reactivity including to antihistone, anti-dsDNA, antiribosomal P, anti-Sjögren syndrome antigen A or Ro60, anti-Sjögren syndrome antigen B or La, anti-Ro52/Tripartite Motif Protein 21, antiproliferating cell nuclear antigen and anticentromere B). Clusters 1 (adjusted HR 2.60 (95% CI 1.12 to 6.05), p=0.03) and 3 (adjusted HR 2.87 (95% CI 1.22 to 6.74), p=0.02) had lower survival compared with cluster 2. Conclusion Four discrete SLE patient longitudinal autoantibody clusters were predictive of long-term disease activity, organ involvement, treatment requirements and mortality risk.
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17.
  • Chung, Sharon A., et al. (författare)
  • Differential Genetic Associations for Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Based on Anti-dsDNA Autoantibody Production
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: PLoS Genetics. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-7390 .- 1553-7404. ; 7:3, s. e1001323-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a clinically heterogeneous, systemic autoimmune disease characterized by autoantibody formation. Previously published genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have investigated SLE as a single phenotype. Therefore, we conducted a GWAS to identify genetic factors associated with anti-dsDNA autoantibody production, a SLE-related autoantibody with diagnostic and clinical importance. Using two independent datasets, over 400,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were studied in a total of 1,717 SLE cases and 4,813 healthy controls. Anti-dsDNA autoantibody positive (anti-dsDNA +, n = 811) and anti-dsDNA autoantibody negative (anti-dsDNA -, n = 906) SLE cases were compared to healthy controls and to each other to identify SNPs associated specifically with these SLE subtypes. SNPs in the previously identified SLE susceptibility loci STAT4, IRF5, ITGAM, and the major histocompatibility complex were strongly associated with anti-dsDNA + SLE. Far fewer and weaker associations were observed for anti-dsDNA - SLE. For example, rs7574865 in STAT4 had an OR for anti-dsDNA + SLE of 1.77 (95% CI 1.57-1.99, p = 2.0E-20) compared to an OR for anti-dsDNA - SLE of 1.26 (95% CI 1.12-1.41, p = 2.4E-04), with (Pheterogeneity)<0.0005. SNPs in the SLE susceptibility loci BANK1, KIAA1542, and UBE2L3 showed evidence of association with anti-dsDNA + SLE and were not associated with anti-dsDNA - SLE. In conclusion, we identified differential genetic associations with SLE based on anti-dsDNA autoantibody production. Many previously identified SLE susceptibility loci may confer disease risk through their role in autoantibody production and be more accurately described as autoantibody propensity loci. Lack of strong SNP associations may suggest that other types of genetic variation or non-genetic factors such as environmental exposures have a greater impact on susceptibility to anti-dsDNA - SLE.
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18.
  • Chung, Sharon A, et al. (författare)
  • European population substructure is associated with mucocutaneous manifestations and autoantibody production in systemic lupus erythematosus
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Arthritis and Rheumatism. - : Wiley. - 0004-3591 .- 1529-0131. ; 60:8, s. 2448-2456
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • OBJECTIVE: To determine whether genetic substructure in European-derived populations is associated with specific manifestations of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), including mucocutaneous phenotypes, autoantibody production, and renal disease. METHODS: SLE patients of European descent (n=1,754) from 8 case collections were genotyped for >1,400 ancestry informative markers that define a north-south gradient of European substructure. Using the Structure program, each SLE patient was characterized in terms of percent Northern (versus percent Southern) European ancestry based on these genetic markers. Nonparametric methods, including tests for trend, were used to identify associations between Northern European ancestry and specific SLE manifestations. RESULTS: In multivariate analyses, increasing levels of Northern European ancestry were significantly associated with photosensitivity (Ptrend=0.0021, odds ratio for highest quartile of Northern European ancestry versus lowest quartile [ORhigh-low] 1.64, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.13-2.35) and discoid rash (Ptrend=0.014, ORhigh-low 1.93, 95% CI 0.98-3.83). In contrast, increasing levels of Northern European ancestry had a protective effect against the production of anticardiolipin autoantibodies (Ptrend=1.6x10(-4), ORhigh-low 0.46, 95% CI 0.30-0.69) and anti-double-stranded DNA autoantibodies (Ptrend=0.017, ORhigh-low 0.67, 95% CI 0.46-0.96). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that specific SLE manifestations vary according to Northern versus Southern European ancestry. Thus, genetic ancestry may contribute to the clinical heterogeneity and variation in disease outcomes among SLE patients of European descent. Moreover, these results suggest that genetic studies of SLE subphenotypes will need to carefully address issues of population substructure based on genetic ancestry.
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19.
  • Clarke, Ann E., et al. (författare)
  • Assessing the Costs of Neuropsychiatric Disease in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Cohort Using Multistate Modeling
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Arthritis Care and Research. - : Wiley. - 2151-464X .- 2151-4658. ; 75:9, s. 1859-1870
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: To estimate direct and indirect costs associated with neuropsychiatric (NP) events in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort. Methods: NP events were documented annually using American College of Rheumatology definitions for NP events and attributed to systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) or non-SLE causes. Patients were stratified into 1 of 3 NP states (no, resolved, or new/ongoing NP event). Change in NP status was characterized by interstate transition rates using multistate modeling. Annual direct costs and indirect costs were based on health care use and impaired productivity over the preceding year. Annual costs associated with NP states and NP events were calculated by averaging all observations in each state and adjusted through random-effects regressions. Five- and 10-year costs for NP states were predicted by multiplying adjusted annual costs per state by expected state duration, forecasted using multistate modeling. Results: A total of 1,697 patients (49% White race/ethnicity) were followed for a mean of 9.6 years. NP events (n = 1,971) occurred in 956 patients, 32% attributed to SLE. For SLE and non-SLE NP events, predicted annual, 5-, and 10-year direct costs and indirect costs were higher in new/ongoing versus no events. Direct costs were 1.5-fold higher and indirect costs 1.3-fold higher in new/ongoing versus no events. Indirect costs exceeded direct costs 3.0 to 5.2 fold. Among frequent SLE NP events, new/ongoing seizure disorder and cerebrovascular disease accounted for the largest increases in annual direct costs. For non-SLE NP events, new/ongoing polyneuropathy accounted for the largest increase in annual direct costs, and new/ongoing headache and mood disorder for the largest increases in indirect costs. Conclusion: Patients with new/ongoing SLE or non-SLE NP events incurred higher direct and indirect costs.
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20.
  • Dou, Diana R., et al. (författare)
  • Xist ribonucleoproteins promote female sex-biased autoimmunity
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Cell. - : Elsevier BV. - 0092-8674 .- 1097-4172. ; 187:3, s. 16-733
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Autoimmune diseases disproportionately affect females more than males. The XX sex chromosome complement is strongly associated with susceptibility to autoimmunity. Xist long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) is expressed only in females to randomly inactivate one of the two X chromosomes to achieve gene dosage compensation. Here, we show that the Xist ribonucleoprotein (RNP) complex comprising numerous autoantigenic components is an important driver of sex-biased autoimmunity. Inducible transgenic expression of a non-silencing form of Xist in male mice introduced Xist RNP complexes and sufficed to produce autoantibodies. Male SJL/J mice expressing transgenic Xist developed more severe multi-organ pathology in a pristane-induced lupus model than wild-type males. Xist expression in males reprogrammed T and B cell populations and chromatin states to more resemble wild-type females. Human patients with autoimmune diseases displayed significant autoantibodies to multiple components of XIST RNP. Thus, a sex-specific lncRNA scaffolds ubiquitous RNP components to drive sex-biased immunity.
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21.
  • Elkhalifa, Marwa, et al. (författare)
  • Anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA in the SLICC classification criteria dataset
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Lupus. - : SAGE Publications. - 0961-2033 .- 1477-0962. ; 30:8, s. 1283-1288
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: Anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA is a common isotype of anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I in SLE. Anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I was not included in the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) SLE classification criteria, but was included in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) criteria. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of anti-beta 2-glycoprotein I IgA in SLE versus other rheumatic diseases. In addition, we examined the association between anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA and disease manifestations in SLE. Methods: The dataset consisted of 1384 patients, 657 with a consensus physician diagnosis of SLE and 727 controls with other rheumatic diseases. Anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I isotypes were measured by ELISA. Patients with a consensus diagnosis of SLE were compared to controls with respect to presence of anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I. Among patients with SLE, we assessed the association between anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA and clinical manifestations. Results: The prevalence of anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA was 14% in SLE patients and 7% in rheumatic disease controls (odds ratio, OR 2.3, 95% CI: 1.6, 3.3). It was more common in SLE patients who were younger patients and of African descent (p = 0.019). Eleven percent of SLE patients had anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA alone (no anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgG or IgM). There was a significant association between anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA and anti-dsDNA (p = 0.001) and the other antiphospholipid antibodies (p = 0.0004). There was no significant correlation of anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA with any of the other ACR or SLICC clinical criteria for SLE. Those with anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA tended to have a history of thrombosis (12% vs 6%, p = 0.071), but the difference was not statistically significant. Conclusion: We found the anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA isotype to be more common in patients with SLE and in particular, with African descent. It could occur alone without other isotypes.
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22.
  • Enocsson, Helena, et al. (författare)
  • Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) levels predict damage accrual in patients with recent-onset systemic lupus erythematosus
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Journal of Autoimmunity. - : Elsevier BV. - 0896-8411 .- 1095-9157. ; 106
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: The soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) has potential as a prognosis and severity biomarker in several inflammatory and infectious diseases. In a previous cross-sectional study, suPAR levels were shown to reflect damage accrual in cases of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Herein, we evaluated suPAR as a predictor of future organ damage in recent-onset SLE. Methods: Included were 344 patients from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort who met the 1997 American College of Rheumatology classification criteria with 5-years of follow-up data available. Baseline sera from patients and age- and sex-matched controls were assayed for suPAR. Organ damage was assessed annually using the SLICC/ACR damage index (SDI). Results: The levels of suPAR were higher in patients who accrued damage, particularly those with SDI≥2 at 5 years (N = 32, 46.8% increase, p = 0.004), as compared to patients without damage. Logistic regression analysis revealed a significant impact of suPAR on SDI outcome (SDI≥2; OR = 1.14; 95% CI 1.03–1.26), also after adjustment for confounding factors. In an optimized logistic regression to predict damage, suPAR persisted as a predictor, together with baseline disease activity (SLEDAI-2K), age, and non-Caucasian ethnicity (model AUC = 0.77). Dissecting SDI into organ systems revealed higher suPAR levels in patients who developed musculoskeletal damage (SDI≥1; p = 0.007). Conclusion: Prognostic biomarkers identify patients who are at risk of acquiring early damage and therefore need careful observation and targeted treatment strategies. Overall, suPAR constitutes an interesting biomarker for patient stratification and for identifying SLE patients who are at risk of acquiring organ damage during the first 5 years of disease.
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23.
  • Fanouriakis, Antonis, et al. (författare)
  • EULAR recommendations for the management of systemic lupus erythematosus : 2023 update
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : HighWire Press. - 0003-4967 .- 1468-2060. ; 83:1, s. 15-29
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • OBJECTIVES: To update the EULAR recommendations for the management of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) based on emerging new evidence.METHODS: An international Task Force formed the questions for the systematic literature reviews (January 2018-December 2022), followed by formulation and finalisation of the statements after a series of meetings. A predefined voting process was applied to each overarching principle and recommendation. Levels of evidence and strengths of recommendation were assigned, and participants finally provided their level of agreement with each item.RESULTS: The Task Force agreed on 5 overarching principles and 13 recommendations, concerning the use of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), glucocorticoids (GC), immunosuppressive drugs (ISDs) (including methotrexate, mycophenolate, azathioprine, cyclophosphamide (CYC)), calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs, cyclosporine, tacrolimus, voclosporin) and biologics (belimumab, anifrolumab, rituximab). Advice is also provided on treatment strategies and targets of therapy, assessment of response, combination and sequential therapies, and tapering of therapy. HCQ is recommended for all patients with lupus at a target dose 5 mg/kg real body weight/day, considering the individual's risk for flares and retinal toxicity. GC are used as 'bridging therapy' during periods of disease activity; for maintenance treatment, they should be minimised to equal or less than 5 mg/day (prednisone equivalent) and, when possible, withdrawn. Prompt initiation of ISDs (methotrexate, azathioprine, mycophenolate) and/or biological agents (anifrolumab, belimumab) should be considered to control the disease and facilitate GC tapering/discontinuation. CYC and rituximab should be considered in organ-threatening and refractory disease, respectively. For active lupus nephritis, GC, mycophenolate or low-dose intravenous CYC are recommended as anchor drugs, and add-on therapy with belimumab or CNIs (voclosporin or tacrolimus) should be considered. Updated specific recommendations are also provided for cutaneous, neuropsychiatric and haematological disease, SLE-associated antiphospholipid syndrome, kidney protection, as well as preventative measures for infections, osteoporosis, cardiovascular disease.CONCLUSION: The updated recommendations provide consensus guidance on the management of SLE, combining evidence and expert opinion.
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24.
  • Ferreira, Isabel, et al. (författare)
  • Nitrated nucleosome levels and neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus; a multi-center retrospective case-control study
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Arthritis Research and Therapy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1478-6354 .- 1478-6362. ; 19:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: In patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) there is no serological test that will reliably distinguish neuropsychiatric (NP) events due to active SLE from those due to other causes. Previously we showed that serum levels of nitrated nucleosomes (NN) were elevated in a small number of patients with NPSLE. Here we measured serum NN in samples from a larger population of patients with SLE and NP events to see whether elevated serum NN could be a marker for NPSLE. Methods: We obtained serum samples from patients in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborative Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort. This included 216 patients with NP events and two matched controls with SLE but no NP events for each of these patients. For the NP patients we tested samples taken before, during and after the NP event. Results: Twenty-six patients had events attributed to SLE according to the most stringent SLICC attribution rule. In these patients there was no association between onset of event and elevated serum NN. In 190 patients in whom events were not attributed to SLE by the SLICC rules, median serum NN was elevated at the onset of event (P = 0.006). The predominant clinical features in this group of 190 patients were headache, mood disorders and anxiety. Conclusions: Serum NN levels rise at the time of an NP event in a proportion of patients with SLE. Further studies are needed to determine the value of serum NN as a biomarker for NPSLE.
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25.
  • Gateva, Vesela, et al. (författare)
  • A large-scale replication study identifies TNIP1, PRDM1, JAZF1, UHRF1BP1 and IL10 as risk loci for systemic lupus erythematosus
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 41:11, s. 1228-1233
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Genome-wide association studies have recently identified at least 15 susceptibility loci for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). To confirm additional risk loci, we selected SNPs from 2,466 regions that showed nominal evidence of association to SLE (P < 0.05) in a genome-wide study and genotyped them in an independent sample of 1,963 cases and 4,329 controls. This replication effort identified five new SLE susceptibility loci (P < 5 x 10(-8)): TNIP1 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.27), PRDM1 (OR = 1.20), JAZF1 (OR = 1.20), UHRF1BP1 (OR = 1.17) and IL10 (OR = 1.19). We identified 21 additional candidate loci with P< or = 1 x 10(-5). A candidate screen of alleles previously associated with other autoimmune diseases suggested five loci (P < 1 x 10(-3)) that may contribute to SLE: IFIH1, CFB, CLEC16A, IL12B and SH2B3. These results expand the number of confirmed and candidate SLE susceptibility loci and implicate several key immunologic pathways in SLE pathogenesis.
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26.
  • Graham, R. Robert, et al. (författare)
  • Three functional variants of IFN regulatory factor 5 (IRF5) define risk and protective haplotypes for human lupus
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 104:16, s. 6758-6763
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Systematic genome-wide studies to map genomic regions associated with human diseases are becoming more practical. Increasingly, efforts will be focused on the identification of the specific functional variants responsible for the disease. The challenges of identifying causal variants include the need for complete ascertainment of genetic variants and the need to consider the possibility of multiple causal alleles. We recently reported that risk of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is strongly associated with a common SNP in IFN regulatory factor 5 (IRF5), and that this variant altered spicing in a way that might provide a functional explanation for the reproducible association to SLE risk. Here, by resequencing and genotyping in patients with SLE, we find evidence for three functional alleles of IRF5: the previously described exon 1B splice site variant, a 30-bp in-frame insertion/deletion variant of exon 6 that alters a proline-, glutamic acid-, serine- and threonine-rich domain region, and a variant in a conserved polyA+ signal sequence that alters the length of the 3' UTR and stability of IRF5 mRNAs. Haplotypes of these three variants define at least three distinct levels of risk to SLE. Understanding how combinations of variants influence IRF5 function may offer etiological and therapeutic insights in SLE; more generally, IRF5 and SLE illustrates how multiple common variants of the same gene can together influence risk of common disease.
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27.
  • Hanly, John G., et al. (författare)
  • A Longitudinal Analysis of Outcomes of Lupus Nephritis in an International Inception Cohort Using a Multistate Model Approach
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Arthritis & Rheumatology. - : Wiley. - 2326-5191 .- 2326-5205. ; 68:8, s. 1932-1944
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: To study bidirectional change and predictors of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and proteinuria in lupus nephritis (LN) using a multistate modeling approach. Methods: Patients in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort were classified annually into estimated GFR state 1 (>60 ml/minute), state 2 (30–60 ml/minute), or state 3 (3.0 gm/day), or end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or death. Using multistate modeling, relative transition rates between states indicated improvement and deterioration. Results: Of 1,826 lupus patients, 700 (38.3%) developed LN. During a mean ± SD follow-up of 5.2 ± 3.5 years, the likelihood of improvement in estimated GFR and estimated proteinuria was greater than the likelihood of deterioration. After 5 years, 62% of patients initially in estimated GFR state 3 and 11% of patients initially in estimated proteinuria state 3 transitioned to ESRD. The probability of remaining in the initial states 1, 2, and 3 was 85%, 11%, and 3%, respectively, for estimated GFR and 62%, 29%, and 4%, respectively, for estimated proteinuria. Male sex predicted improvement in estimated GFR states; older age, race/ethnicity, higher estimated proteinuria state, and higher renal biopsy chronicity scores predicted deterioration. For estimated proteinuria, race/ethnicity, earlier calendar years, damage scores without renal variables, and higher renal biopsy chronicity scores predicted deterioration; male sex, presence of lupus anticoagulant, class V nephritis, and mycophenolic acid use predicted less improvement. Conclusion: In LN, the expected improvement or deterioration in renal outcomes can be estimated by multistate modeling and is preceded by identifiable risk factors. New therapeutic interventions for LN should meet or exceed these expectations.
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28.
  • Hanly, John G., et al. (författare)
  • Cerebrovascular Events in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus : Results From an International Inception Cohort Study
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Arthritis Care and Research. - : Wiley. - 2151-464X .- 2151-4658. ; 70:10, s. 1478-1487
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: To determine the frequency, characteristics, and outcomes of cerebrovascular events (CerVEs), as well as clinical and autoantibody associations in a multiethnic/racial inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods: A total of 1,826 patients were assessed annually for 19 neuropsychiatric (NP) events, including 5 types of CerVEs: 1) stroke, 2) transient ischemia, 3) chronic multifocal ischemia, 4) subarachnoid/intracranial hemorrhage, and 5) sinus thrombosis. Global disease activity (Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease [SLE] Activity Index 2000), damage scores (SLE International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index), and Short Form 36 (SF-36) scores were collected. Time to event, linear and logistic regressions, and multistate models were used as appropriate. Results: CerVEs were the fourth most frequent NP event: 82 of 1,826 patients had 109 events; of these events, 103 were attributed to SLE, and 44 were identified at the time of enrollment. The predominant events were stroke (60 of 109 patients) and transient ischemia (28 of 109 patients). CerVEs were associated with other NP events attributed to SLE, non–SLE-attributed NP events, African ancestry (at US SLICC sites), and increased organ damage scores. Lupus anticoagulant increased the risk of first stroke and sinus thrombosis and transient ischemic attack. Physician assessment indicated resolution or improvement in the majority of patients, but patients reported sustained reduction in SF-36 summary and subscale scores following a CerVE. Conclusion: CerVEs, the fourth most frequent NP event in SLE, are usually attributable to lupus. In contrast to good physician-reported outcomes, patients reported a sustained reduction in health-related quality of life following a CerVE.
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29.
  • Hanly, John G., et al. (författare)
  • Headache in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Results From a Prospective, International Inception Cohort Study
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Arthritis and Rheumatism. - : Wiley. - 1529-0131 .- 0004-3591. ; 65:11, s. 2887-2897
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • ObjectiveTo examine the frequency and characteristics of headaches and their association with global disease activity and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). MethodsA disease inception cohort was assessed annually for headache (5 types) and 18 other neuropsychiatric (NP) events. Global disease activity scores (SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 [SLEDAI-2K]), damage scores (Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI]), and Short Form 36 (SF-36) mental and physical component summary scores were collected. Time to first headache and associations with SF-36 scores were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards and linear regression models with generalized estimating equations. ResultsAmong the 1,732 SLE patients enrolled, 89.3% were female and 48.3% were white. The mean SD age was 34.6 +/- 13.4 years, duration of disease was 5.6 +/- 5.2 months, and length of followup was 3.8 +/- 3.1 years. At enrollment, 17.8% of patients had headache (migraine [60.7%], tension [38.6%], intractable nonspecific [7.1%], cluster [2.6%], and intracranial hypertension [1.0%]). The prevalence of headache increased to 58% after 10 years. Only 1.5% of patients had lupus headache, as identified in the SLEDAI-2K. In addition, headache was associated with other NP events attributed to either SLE or non-SLE causes. There was no association of headache with SLEDAI-2K scores (without the lupus headache variable), SDI scores, use of corticosteroids, use of antimalarials, use of immunosuppressive medications, or specific autoantibodies. SF-36 mental component scores were lower in patients with headache compared with those without headache (mean +/- SD 42.5 +/- 12.2 versus 47.8 +/- 11.3; P < 0.001), and similar differences in physical component scores were seen (38.0 +/- 11.0 in those with headache versus 42.6 +/- 11.4 in those without headache; P < 0.001). In 56.1% of patients, the headaches resolved over followup. ConclusionHeadache is frequent in SLE, but overall, it is not associated with global disease activity or specific autoantibodies. Although headaches are associated with a lower HRQOL, the majority of headaches resolve over time, independent of lupus-specific therapies.
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30.
  • Hanly, John G., et al. (författare)
  • Mood Disorders in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Results From an International Inception Cohort Study
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Arthritis & Rheumatology. - : Wiley. - 2326-5191 .- 2326-5205. ; 67:7, s. 1837-1847
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • ObjectiveTo examine the frequency, characteristics, and outcome of mood disorders, as well as clinical and autoantibody associations, in a multiethnic/racial, prospective inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). MethodsPatients were assessed annually for mood disorders (4 types, according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition) and 18 other neuropsychiatric events. Global disease activity scores (SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 [SLEDAI-2K]), damage scores (Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI]), and Short Form 36 subscales, mental and physical component summary scores were collected. Time to event, linear and ordinal regressions, and multi-state models were used as appropriate. ResultsAmong the 1,827 patients with SLE, 88.9% were female, and 48.9% were Caucasian. The mean SD age of the patients was 35.1 +/- 13.3 years, disease duration was 5.6 +/- 4.8 months, and the length of followup was 4.7 +/- 3.5 years. During the course of the study, 863 (47.2%) of the 1,827 patients had 1,627 neuropsychiatric events. Mood disorders occurred in 232 (12.7%) of 1,827 patients, and 98 (38.3%) of 256 mood disorder events were attributed to SLE. The estimated cumulative incidence of any mood disorder after 10 years was 17.7% (95% confidence interval 15.1, 20.2%). A greater risk of mood disorder was associated with concurrent neuropsychiatric events (P0.01), and a lower risk was associated with Asian race/ethnicity (P=0.01) and treatment with immunosuppressive drugs (P=0.003). Mood disorders were associated with lower mental health and mental component summary scores but not with the SLEDAI-2K, SDI, or lupus autoantibodies. Among the 232 patients with depression, 168 (72.4%) were treated with antidepressants. One hundred twenty-six (49.2%) of 256 mood disorders resolved in 117 (50.4%) of 232 patients. ConclusionMood disorders, the second most frequent neuropsychiatric event in patients with SLE, have a negative impact on health-related quality of life and improve over time. The lack of association with global SLE disease activity, cumulative organ damage, and lupus autoantibodies emphasizes the multifactorial etiology of mood disorders and a role for non-lupus-specific therapies.
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31.
  • Hanly, John G., et al. (författare)
  • Neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus : A longitudinal analysis of outcomes in an international inception cohort using a multistate model approach
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 0003-4967 .- 1468-2060. ; 79:3, s. 356-362
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives: Using a reversible multistate model, we prospectively examined neuropsychiatric (NP) events for attribution, outcome and association with health-related quality of life (HRQoL), in an international, inception cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients. Methods: Annual assessments for 19 NP events attributed to SLE and non-SLE causes, physician determination of outcome and patient HRQoL (short-form (SF)-36 scores) were measured. Time-to-event analysis and multistate modelling examined the onset, recurrence and transition between NP states. Results: NP events occurred in 955/1827 (52.3%) patients and 592/1910 (31.0%) unique events were attributed to SLE. In the first 2 years of follow-up the relative risk (95% CI) for SLE NP events was 6.16 (4.96, 7.66) and non-SLE events was 4.66 (4.01, 5.43) compared with thereafter. Patients without SLE NP events at initial assessment had a 74% probability of being event free at 10 years. For non-SLE NP events the estimate was 48%. The majority of NP events resolved over 10 years but mortality was higher in patients with NP events attributed to SLE (16%) versus patients with no NPSLE events (6%) while the rate was comparable in patients with non-SLE NP events (7%) compared with patients with no non-SLE events (6%). Patients with NP events had lower SF-36 summary scores compared with those without NP events and resolved NP states (p<0.001). Conclusions: NP events occur most frequently around the diagnosis of SLE. Although the majority of events resolve they are associated with reduced HRQoL and excess mortality. Multistate modelling is well suited for the assessment of NP events in SLE.
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32.
  • Hanly, John G., et al. (författare)
  • Neuropsychiatric Events in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus : Predictors of Occurrence and Resolution in a Longitudinal Analysis of an International Inception Cohort
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Arthritis and Rheumatology. - : Wiley. - 2326-5191 .- 2326-5205. ; 73:12, s. 2293-2302
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: To determine predictors of change in neuropsychiatric (NP) event status in a large, prospective, international inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods: Upon enrollment and annually thereafter, NP events attributed to SLE and non-SLE causes and physician-determined resolution were documented. Factors potentially associated with the onset and resolution of NP events were determined by time-to-event analysis using a multistate modeling structure. Results: NP events occurred in 955 (52.3%) of 1,827 patients, and 593 (31.0%) of 1,910 unique events were attributed to SLE. For SLE-associated NP (SLE NP) events, multivariate analysis revealed a positive association with male sex (P = 0.028), concurrent non-SLE NP events excluding headache (P < 0.001), active SLE (P = 0.012), and glucocorticoid use (P = 0.008). There was a negative association with Asian race (P = 0.002), postsecondary education (P = 0.001), and treatment with immunosuppressive drugs (P = 0.019) or antimalarial drugs (P = 0.056). For non-SLE NP events excluding headache, there was a positive association with concurrent SLE NP events (P < 0.001) and a negative association with African race (P = 0.012) and Asian race (P < 0.001). NP events attributed to SLE had a higher resolution rate than non-SLE NP events, with the exception of headache, which had comparable resolution rates. For SLE NP events, multivariate analysis revealed that resolution was more common in patients of Asian race (P = 0.006) and for central/focal NP events (P < 0.001). For non-SLE NP events, resolution was more common in patients of African race (P = 0.017) and less common in patients who were older at SLE diagnosis (P < 0.001). Conclusion: In a large and long-term study of the occurrence and resolution of NP events in SLE, we identified subgroups with better and worse prognosis. The course of NP events differs greatly depending on their nature and attribution.
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33.
  • Hanly, John G., et al. (författare)
  • Peripheral Nervous System Disease in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus : Results From an International Inception Cohort Study
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Arthritis and Rheumatology. - : Wiley. - 2326-5191 .- 2326-5205. ; 72:1, s. 67-77
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: To determine the frequency, clinical characteristics, associations, and outcomes of different types of peripheral nervous system (PNS) disease in a multiethnic/multiracial, prospective inception cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients. Methods: Patients were evaluated annually for 19 neuropsychiatric (NP) events including 7 types of PNS disease. SLE disease activity, organ damage, autoantibodies, and patient and physician assessment of outcome were measured. Time to event and linear regressions were used as appropriate. Results: Of 1,827 SLE patients, 88.8% were female, and 48.8% were white. The mean ± SD age was 35.1 ± 13.3 years, disease duration at enrollment was 5.6 ± 4.2 months, and follow-up was 7.6 ± 4.6 years. There were 161 PNS events in 139 (7.6%) of 1,827 patients. The predominant events were peripheral neuropathy (66 of 161 [41.0%]), mononeuropathy (44 of 161 [27.3%]), and cranial neuropathy (39 of 161 [24.2%]), and the majority were attributed to SLE. Multivariate Cox regressions suggested longer time to resolution in patients with a history of neuropathy, older age at SLE diagnosis, higher SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 scores, and for peripheral neuropathy versus other neuropathies. Neuropathy was associated with significantly lower Short Form 36 (SF-36) physical and mental component summary scores versus no NP events. According to physician assessment, the majority of neuropathies resolved or improved over time, which was associated with improvements in SF-36 summary scores for peripheral neuropathy and mononeuropathy. Conclusion: PNS disease is an important component of total NPSLE and has a significant negative impact on health-related quality of life. The outcome is favorable for most patients, but our findings indicate that several factors are associated with longer time to resolution.
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34.
  • Hanly, John G., et al. (författare)
  • Psychosis in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus : Results From an International Inception Cohort Study
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Arthritis and Rheumatology. - : Wiley. - 2326-5191 .- 2326-5205. ; 71:2, s. 281-289
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: To determine, in a large, multiethnic/multiracial, prospective inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), the frequency, attribution, clinical, and autoantibody associations with lupus psychosis and the short- and long-term outcomes as assessed by physicians and patients. Methods: Patients were evaluated annually for 19 neuropsychiatric (NP) events including psychosis. Scores on the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000, the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index, and the Short Form 36 (SF-36) were recorded. Time to event and linear regressions were used as appropriate. Results: Of 1,826 SLE patients, 88.8% were female and 48.8% were Caucasian. The mean ± SD age was 35.1 ± 13.3 years, the mean ± SD disease duration was 5.6 ± 4.2 months, and the mean ± SD follow-up period was 7.4 ± 4.5 years. There were 31 psychotic events in 28 of 1,826 patients (1.53%), and most patients had a single event (26 of 28 [93%]). In the majority of patients (20 of 25 [80%]) and events (28 of 31 [90%]), psychosis was attributed to SLE, usually either in the year prior to or within 3 years of SLE diagnosis. Positive associations (hazard ratios [HRs] and 95% confidence intervals [95% CIs]) with lupus psychosis were previous SLE NP events (HR 3.59 [95% CI 1.16–11.14]), male sex (HR 3.0 [95% CI 1.20–7.50]), younger age at SLE diagnosis (per 10 years) (HR 1.45 [95% CI 1.01–2.07]), and African ancestry (HR 4.59 [95% CI 1.79–11.76]). By physician assessment, most psychotic events resolved by the second annual visit following onset, in parallel with an improvement in patient-reported SF-36 summary and subscale scores. Conclusion: Psychosis is an infrequent manifestation of NPSLE. Generally, it occurs early after SLE onset and has a significant negative impact on health status. As determined by patient and physician report, the short- and long-term outlooks are good for most patients, although careful follow-up is required.
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35.
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36.
  • Hardt, Uta, et al. (författare)
  • Autoimmune reactivity to malondialdehyde adducts in systemic lupus erythematosus is associated with disease activity and nephritis
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Arthritis Research & Therapy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1478-6354 .- 1478-6362. ; 20
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Immunoglobulin M (IgM) autoreactivity to malondialdehyde (MDA) protein modifications is part of the natural antibody repertoire in health and may have beneficial functions. In contrast, IgG anti-MDA are increased in chronic inflammation and autoimmunity and may instead have pathogenic properties.METHODS: Herein, we investigated serum IgG anti-MDA levels by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in 398 systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients in the Swedish Karolinska SLE cohort and compared these to findings in 225 US SLE patients from New York University and Johns Hopkins University.RESULTS: In two independent cohorts, IgG anti-MDA levels correlated positively with disease activity by the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI; p < 0.0001, Spearman R = 0.3). Meta-analysis found an odds ratio of 2.7 (confidence interval (CI) 1.9-3.9; p < 0.0001) for high anti-MDA IgG levels with active disease (SLEDAI ≥ 6). Furthermore, IgG anti-MDA correlated directly with erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors (sTNFR-1, sTNFR-2), and vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (VCAM-1) measurements, and inversely with complement factors (C1q, C2, C3, C4). Importantly, IgG anti-MDA levels were significantly elevated in SLE patients with active nephritis (p = 0.0005) and correlated with cystatin C estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria.CONCLUSIONS: Elevated IgG anti-MDA in SLE patients was associated with high disease activity, with active lupus nephritis, and with biomarkers of systemic inflammation. This natural antibody reactivity may have potential prognostic utility, and may also actively contribute to pathogenesis.
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37.
  • Harley, Isaac T. W., et al. (författare)
  • The Role of Genetic Variation Near Interferon-Kappa in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Journal of Biomedicine and Biotechnology. - : Hindawi Limited. - 1110-7243 .- 1110-7251. ; , s. 706825-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a systemic autoimmune disease characterized by increased type I interferons (IFNs) and multiorgan inflammation frequently targeting the skin. IFN-kappa is a type I IFN expressed in skin. A pooled genome-wide scan implicated the IFNK locus in SLE susceptibility. We studied IFNK single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 3982 SLE cases and 4275 controls, composed of European (EA), African-American (AA), and Asian ancestry. rs12553951C was associated with SLE in EA males (odds ratio = 1.93, P = 2.5 x 10(-4)), but not females. Suggestive associations with skin phenotypes in EA and AA females were found, and these were also sex-specific. IFNK SNPs were associated with increased serum type I IFN in EA and AA SLE patients. Our data suggest a sex-dependent association between IFNK SNPs and SLE and skin phenotypes. The serum IFN association suggests that IFNK variants could influence type I IFN producing plasmacytoid dendritic cells in affected skin.
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38.
  • Hom, Geoffrey, et al. (författare)
  • Association of systemic lupus erythematosus with C8orf13-BLK and ITGAM-ITGAX.
  • 2008
  • Ingår i: New England Journal of Medicine. - : Massachusetts Medical Society. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 358:9, s. 900-909
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a clinically heterogeneous disease in which the risk of disease is influenced by complex genetic and environmental contributions. Alleles of HLA-DRB1, IRF5, and STAT4are established susceptibility genes; there is strong evidence for the existence of additional risk loci.METHODS: We genotyped more than 500,000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in DNA samples from 1311 case subjects with SLE and 1783 control subjects; all subjects were North Americans of European descent. Genotypes from 1557 additional control subjects were obtained from public data repositories. We measured the association between the SNPs and SLE after applying strict quality-control filters to reduce technical artifacts and to correct for the presence of population stratification. Replication of the top loci was performed in 793 case subjects and 857 control subjects from Sweden.RESULTS: Genetic variation in the region upstream from the transcription initiation site of the gene encoding B lymphoid tyrosine kinase (BLK) and C8orf13 (chromosome 8p23.1) was associated with disease risk in both the U.S. and Swedish case–control series (rs13277113; odds ratio, 1.39; P=1×10−10) and also with altered levels of messenger RNA in B-cell lines. In addition, variants on chromosome 16p11.22, near the genes encoding integrin alpha M (ITGAM, or CD11b) and integrin alpha X (ITGAX), were associated with SLE in the combined sample (rs11574637; odds ratio, 1.33; P=3×10−11).
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39.
  • Kottyan, Leah C., et al. (författare)
  • The IRF5-TNPO3 association with systemic lupus erythematosus has two components that other autoimmune disorders variably share.
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Human Molecular Genetics. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0964-6906 .- 1460-2083. ; 24:2, s. 582-596
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Exploiting genotyping, DNA sequencing, imputation and trans-ancestral mapping, we used Bayesian and frequentist approaches to model the IRF5-TNPO3 locus association, now implicated in two immunotherapies and seven autoimmune diseases. Specifically, in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), we resolved separate associations in the IRF5 promoter (all ancestries) and with an extended European haplotype. We captured 3230 IRF5-TNPO3 high-quality, common variants across 5 ethnicities in 8395 SLE cases and 7367 controls. The genetic effect from the IRF5 promoter can be explained by any one of four variants in 5.7 kb (P-valuemeta = 6 × 10(-49); OR = 1.38-1.97). The second genetic effect spanned an 85.5-kb, 24-variant haplotype that included the genes IRF5 and TNPO3 (P-valuesEU = 10(-27)-10(-32), OR = 1.7-1.81). Many variants at the IRF5 locus with previously assigned biological function are not members of either final credible set of potential causal variants identified herein. In addition to the known biologically functional variants, we demonstrated that the risk allele of rs4728142, a variant in the promoter among the lowest frequentist probability and highest Bayesian posterior probability, was correlated with IRF5 expression and differentially binds the transcription factor ZBTB3. Our analytical strategy provides a novel framework for future studies aimed at dissecting etiological genetic effects. Finally, both SLE elements of the statistical model appear to operate in Sjögrens syndrome and systemic sclerosis whereas only the IRF5-TNPO3 gene-spanning haplotype is associated with primary biliary cirrhosis, demonstrating the nuance of similarity and difference in autoimmune disease risk mechanisms at IRF5-TNPO3.
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40.
  • Kourantidou, Melina, et al. (författare)
  • The economic costs, management and regulation of biological invasions in the Nordic countries
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4797 .- 1095-8630. ; 324
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A collective understanding of economic impacts and in particular of monetary costs of biological invasions is lacking for the Nordic region. This paper synthesizes findings from the literature on costs of invasions in the Nordic countries together with expert elicitation. The analysis of cost data has been made possible through the InvaCost database, a globally open repository of monetary costs that allows for the use of temporal, spatial, and taxonomic descriptors facilitating a better understanding of how costs are distributed. The total reported costs of invasive species across the Nordic countries were estimated at $8.35 billion (in 2017 US$ values) with damage costs significantly outweighing management costs. Norway incurred the highest costs ($3.23 billion), followed by Denmark ($2.20 billion), Sweden ($1.45 billion), Finland ($1.11 billion) and Iceland ($25.45 million). Costs from invasions in the Nordics appear to be largely underestimated. We conclude by highlighting such knowledge gaps, including gaps in policies and regulation stemming from expert judgment as well as avenues for an improved understanding of invasion costs and needs for future research.
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41.
  • Krustev, Eugene, et al. (författare)
  • Anti-KIF20B autoantibodies are associated with cranial neuropathy in systemic lupus erythematosus
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Lupus Science and Medicine. - 2053-8790. ; 11:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Cranial neuropathies (CN) are a rare neuropsychiatric SLE (NPSLE) manifestation. Previous studies reported that antibodies to the kinesin family member 20B (KIF20B) (anti-KIF20B) protein were associated with idiopathic ataxia and CN. We assessed anti-KIF20B as a potential biomarker for NPSLE in an international SLE inception cohort. Methods Individuals fulfilling the revised 1997 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) SLE classification criteria were enrolled from 31 centres from 1999 to 2011 and followed annually in the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort. Anti-KIF20B testing was performed on baseline (within 15 months of diagnosis or first annual visit) samples using an addressable laser bead immunoassay. Logistic regression (penalised maximum likelihood and adjusting for confounding variables) examined the association between anti-KIF20B and NPSLE manifestations (1999 ACR case definitions), including CN, occurring over the first 5 years of follow-up. Results Of the 1827 enrolled cohort members, baseline serum and 5 years of follow-up data were available on 795 patients who were included in this study: 29.8% were anti-KIF20B-positive, 88.7% female, and 52.1% White. The frequency of anti-KIF20B positivity differed only for those with CN (n=10) versus without CN (n=785) (70.0% vs 29.3%; OR 5.2, 95% CI 1.4, 18.5). Compared with patients without CN, patients with CN were more likely to fulfil the ACR haematological (90.0% vs 66.1%; difference 23.9%, 95% CI 5.0%, 42.8%) and ANA (100% vs 95.7%; difference 4.3%, 95% CI 2.9%, 5.8%) criteria. In the multivariate analysis adjusting for age at baseline, female, White race and ethnicity, and ACR haematological and ANA criteria, anti-KIF20B positivity remained associated with CN (OR 5.2, 95% CI 1.4, 19.1). Conclusion Anti-KIF20B is a potential biomarker for SLE-related CN. Further studies are needed to examine how autoantibodies against KIF20B, which is variably expressed in a variety of neurological cells, contribute to disease pathogenesis.
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42.
  • Langefeld, Carl D., et al. (författare)
  • Transancestral mapping and genetic load in systemic lupus erythematosus
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 2041-1723. ; 8
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is an autoimmune disease with marked gender and ethnic disparities. We report a large transancestral association study of SLE using Immunochip genotype data from 27,574 individuals of European (EA), African (AA) and Hispanic Amerindian (HA) ancestry. We identify 58 distinct non-HLA regions in EA, 9 in AA and 16 in HA (similar to 50% of these regions have multiple independent associations); these include 24 novel SLE regions (P < 5 x 10(-8)), refined association signals in established regions, extended associations to additional ancestries, and a disentangled complex HLA multigenic effect. The risk allele count (genetic load) exhibits an accelerating pattern of SLE risk, leading us to posit a cumulative hit hypothesis for autoimmune disease. Comparing results across the three ancestries identifies both ancestry-dependent and ancestry-independent contributions to SLE risk. Our results are consistent with the unique and complex histories of the populations sampled, and collectively help clarify the genetic architecture and ethnic disparities in SLE.
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43.
  • Legge, Alexandra, et al. (författare)
  • Construction of a frailty index as a novel health measure in systemic lupus erythematosus
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Journal of Rheumatology. - : The Journal of Rheumatology. - 0315-162X .- 1499-2752. ; 47:1, s. 72-81
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective. To construct a Frailty Index (FI) as a measure of vulnerability to adverse outcomes among patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), using data from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort. Methods. The SLICC inception cohort consists of recently diagnosed patients with SLE followed annually with clinical and laboratory assessments. For this analysis, the baseline visit was defined as the first study visit at which sufficient information was available for construction of an FI. Following a standard procedure, variables from the SLICC database were evaluated as potential health deficits. Selected health deficits were then used to generate a SLICC-FI. The prevalence of frailty in the baseline dataset was evaluated using established cutpoints for FI values. Results. The 1683 patients with SLE (92.1% of the overall cohort) eligible for inclusion in the baseline dataset were mostly female (89%) with mean (SD) age 35.7 (13.4) years and mean (SD) disease duration 18.8 (15.7) months at baseline. Of 222 variables, 48 met criteria for inclusion in the SLICC-FI. Mean (SD) SLICC-FI was 0.17 (0.08) with a range from 0 to 0.51. At baseline, 27.1% (95% CI 25.0-29.2) of patients were classified as frail, based on SLICC-FI values > 0.21. Conclusion. The SLICC inception cohort permits feasible construction of an FI for use in patients with SLE. Even in a relatively young cohort of patients with SLE, frailty was common. The SLICC-FI may be a useful tool for identifying patients with SLE who are most vulnerable to adverse outcomes, but validation of this index is required prior to its use.
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44.
  • Legge, Alexandra, et al. (författare)
  • Prediction of Damage Accrual in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Using the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Frailty Index
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Arthritis and Rheumatology. - : Wiley. - 2326-5191 .- 2326-5205. ; 72:4, s. 658-666
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) frailty index (FI) has been shown to predict mortality, but its association with other important outcomes is unknown. We examined the association of baseline SLICC FI values with damage accrual in the SLICC inception cohort. Methods: The baseline visit was defined as the first visit at which both organ damage (SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI]) and health-related quality of life (Short Form 36) were assessed. Baseline SLICC FI scores were calculated. Damage accrual was measured by the increase in SDI between the baseline assessment and the last study visit. Multivariable negative binomial regression was used to estimate the association between baseline SLICC FI values and the rate of increase in the SDI during follow-up, adjusting for relevant demographic and clinical characteristics. Results: The 1,549 systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients eligible for this analysis were mostly female (88.7%) with a mean ± SD age of 35.7 ± 13.3 years and a median disease duration of 1.2 years (interquartile range 0.9–1.5 years) at baseline. The mean ± SD baseline SLICC FI was 0.17 ± 0.08. Over a mean ± SD follow-up of 7.2 ± 3.7 years, 653 patients (42.2%) had an increase in SDI. Higher baseline SLICC FI values (per 0.05 increase) were associated with higher rates of increase in the SDI during follow-up (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.19 [95% confidence interval 1.13–1.25]), after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity/region, education, baseline SLE Disease Activity Index 2000, baseline SDI, and baseline use of glucocorticoids, antimalarials, and immunosuppressive agents. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that the SLICC FI predicts damage accrual in incident SLE, which further supports the SLICC FI as a valid health measure in SLE.
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45.
  • Legge, Alexandra, et al. (författare)
  • Prediction of Hospitalizations in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Using the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Frailty Index
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Arthritis Care and Research. - : Wiley. - 2151-464X .- 2151-4658. ; 74:4, s. 638-647
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) frailty index (FI) predicts mortality and damage accrual in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), but its association with hospitalizations has not been described. Our objective was to estimate the association of baseline SLICC-FI values with future hospitalizations in the SLICC inception cohort. Methods: Baseline SLICC-FI scores were calculated. The number and duration of inpatient hospitalizations during follow-up were recorded. Negative binomial regression was used to estimate the association between baseline SLICC-FI values and the rate of hospitalizations per patient-year of follow-up. Linear regression was used to estimate the association of baseline SLICC-FI scores with the proportion of follow-up time spent in the hospital. Multivariable models were adjusted for relevant baseline characteristics. Results: The 1,549 patients with SLE eligible for this analysis were mostly female (88.7%), with a mean ± SD age of 35.7 ± 13.3 years and a median disease duration of 1.2 years (interquartile range 0.9–1.5) at baseline. Mean ± SD baseline SLICC-FI was 0.17 ± 0.08. During mean ± SD follow-up of 7.2 ± 3.7 years, 614 patients (39.6%) experienced 1,570 hospitalizations. Higher baseline SLICC-FI values (per 0.05 increment) were associated with more frequent hospitalizations during follow-up, with an incidence rate ratio of 1.21 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.13–1.30) after adjustment for baseline age, sex, glucocorticoid use, immunosuppressive use, ethnicity/location, SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 score, SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index score, and disease duration. Among patients with ≥1 hospitalization, higher baseline SLICC-FI values predicted a greater proportion of follow-up time spent hospitalized (relative rate 1.09 [95% CI 1.02–1.16]). Conclusion: The SLICC-FI predicts future hospitalizations among incident SLE patients, further supporting the SLICC-FI as a valid health measure in SLE.
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46.
  • Lertratanakul, Apinya, et al. (författare)
  • 25-Hydroxyvitamin D and Cardiovascular Disease in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Data From a Large International Inception Cohort
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Arthritis Care and Research. - : Wiley. - 2151-4658 .- 2151-464X. ; 66:8, s. 1167-1176
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective. An association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[ OH] D; vitamin D) deficiency and increased cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and CV disease (CVD) has been shown in general population studies. Vitamin D deficiency has been noted in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), and CVD is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in SLE. The objectives of this study were to estimate the associations of 25(OH) D levels with CV risk factors and to determine whether low baseline 25(OH) D levels predict future CV events in patients participating in an international inception cohort. Methods. Data were collected on 890 participants, including demographics, SLE activity and damage assessments, CV risk factors and events, medications, laboratory assessments of 25(OH) D levels, and inflammatory markers. Multiple logistic and Cox regressions were used to estimate the associations of baseline 25(OH) D levels with baseline CV risk factors and CVD events. The models were adjusted for age, sex, race, season, and country, with and without body mass index. Results. Patients in the higher quartiles of 25(OH) D were less likely to have hypertension and hyperlipidemia and were more likely to have lower C-reactive protein levels and lower Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 scores at baseline when compared with the first quartile. Vitamin D levels were not independently associated with CVD event incidence; however, hazard ratios for CVD event incidence decreased with successively higher quartiles. Conclusion. Lower baseline 25(OH) D levels are associated with higher risk for CV risk factors and more active SLE at baseline. There may be a trend toward a lower likelihood of CVD events in those with higher baseline 25(OH) D levels.
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47.
  • Lessard, Christopher J., et al. (författare)
  • Identification of a Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Susceptibility Locus at 11p13 between PDHX and CD44 in a Multiethnic Study
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: American Journal of Human Genetics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9297 .- 1537-6605. ; 88:1, s. 83-91
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is considered to be the prototypic autoimmune disease, with a complex genetic architecture influenced by environmental factors. We sought to replicate a putative association at 11p13 not yet exceeding genome-wide significance (p < 5 x 10(-8)) identified in a genome-wide association study (GWAS). Our GWA scan identified two intergenic SNPs located between PDHX and CD44 showing suggestive evidence of association with SLE in cases of European descent (rs2732552, p = 0.004, odds ratio [OR] = 0.78; rs387619, p = 0.003, OR = 0.78). The replication cohort consisted of >15,000 subjects, including 3562 SLE cases and 3491 controls of European ancestry, 1527 cases and 1811 controls of African American (AA) descent, and 1265 cases and 1260 controls of Asian origin. We observed robust association at both rs2732552 (p = 9.03 x 10(-8), OR = 0.83) and rs387619 (p = 7.7 x 10(-7), OR = 0.83) in the European samples with p(meta) = 1.82 x 10(-9) for rs2732552. The AA and Asian SLE cases also demonstrated association at rs2732552 (p = 5 x 10(-3), OR = 0.81 and p = 4.3 x 10(-4), OR = 0.80, respectively). A meta-analysis of rs2732552 for all racial and ethnic groups studied produced p(meta) = 2.36 x 10(-13). This locus contains multiple regulatory sites that could potentially affect expression and functions of CD44, a cell-surface glycoprotein influencing immunologic, inflammatory, and oncologic phenotypes, or PDHX, a subunit of the pyruvate dehydrogenase complex.
  •  
48.
  • Lessard, Christopher J., et al. (författare)
  • Identification of IRF8, TMEM39A, and IKZF3-ZPBP2 as Susceptibility Loci for Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in a Large-Scale Multiracial Replication Study
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: American Journal of Human Genetics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9297 .- 1537-6605. ; 90:4, s. 648-660
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic heterogeneous autoimmune disorder characterized by the loss of tolerance to self-antigens and dysregulated interferon responses. The etiology of SLE is complex, involving both heritable and environmental factors. Candidate-gene studies and genome-wide association (GWA) scans have been successful in identifying new loci that contribute to disease susceptibility; however, much of the heritable risk has yet to be identified. In this study, we sought to replicate 1,580 variants showing suggestive association with SLE in a previously published GWA scan of European Americans; we tested a multiethnic population consisting of 7,998 SLE cases and 7,492 controls of European, African American, Asian, Hispanic, Gullah, and Amerindian ancestry to find association with the disease. Several genes relevant to immunological pathways showed association with SLE. Three loci exceeded the genome-wide significance threshold: interferon regulatory factor 8 (IRF8; rs11644034; p(meta-Euro) = 2.08 x 10(-10)), transmembrane protein 39A (TMEM39A; rs1132200; p(meta-all) 8.62 x 10(-9)), and 17q21 (rs1453560; p(meta-all) = 3.48 x 10(-10)) between IKAROS family of zinc finger 3 (AIOLOS; IKZF3) and zona pellucida binding protein 2 (ZPBP2). Fine mapping, resequencing, imputation, and haplotype analysis of IRF8 indicated that three independent effects tagged by rs8046526, rs450443, and rs4843869, respectively, were required for risk in individuals of European ancestry. Eleven additional replicated effects (5 x 10(-8) < p(meta-Euro) < 9.99 x 10(-5)) were observed with CFHR1, CADM2, LOC730109/IL12A, LPP, LOC63920, SLU7, ADAMTSL1, C10orf64, OR8D4 FAM19A2, and STXBP6. The results of this study increase the number of confirmed SLE risk loci and identify others warranting further investigation.
  •  
49.
  • Little, Jayne, et al. (författare)
  • Glucocorticoid use and factors associated with variability in this use in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Inception Cohort
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Rheumatology (United Kingdom). - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1462-0324 .- 1462-0332. ; 57:4, s. 677-687
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives. To describe glucocorticoid (GC) use in the SLICC inception cohort and to explore factors associated with GC use. In particular we aimed to assess temporal trends in GC use and to what extent physician-related factors may influence use. Methods. Patients were recruited within 15 months of diagnosis of SLE from 33 centres between 1999 and 2011 and continue to be reviewed annually. Descriptive statistics were used to detail oral and parenteral GC use. Cross sectional and longitudinal analyses were performed to explore factors associated with GC use at enrolment and over time. Results. We studied 1700 patients with a mean (S.D.) follow-up duration of 7.26 (3.82) years. Over the entire study period, 1365 (81.3%) patients received oral GCs and 447 (26.3%) received parenteral GCs at some point. GC use was strongly associated with treatment centre, age, race/ethnicity, sex, disease duration and disease activity. There was no change in the proportion of patients on GCs or the average doses of GC used over time according to year of diagnosis. Conclusion. GCs remain a cornerstone in SLE management and there have been no significant changes in their use over the past 10-15 years. While patient and disease factors contribute to the variation in GC use, between-centre differences suggest that physician-related factors also contribute. Evidence-based treatment algorithms are needed to inform a more standardized approach to GC use in SLE.
  •  
50.
  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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