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| 5. |
- Kinyoki, DK, et al.
(författare)
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Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-170X .- 1078-8956. ; 26:5, s. 750-759
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Sbarra, AN, et al.
(författare)
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Mapping routine measles vaccination in low- and middle-income countries
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 589:7842, s. 415-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)1–4. Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)5–8. Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-km2pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts between 2010 and 2019, leaving many LMICs far from the GVAP goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019. MCV1 coverage was lower in rural than in urban locations, although a larger proportion of unvaccinated children overall lived in urban locations; strategies to provide essential vaccination services should address both geographical contexts. These results provide a tool for decision-makers to strengthen routine MCV1 immunization programmes and provide equitable disease protection for all children.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Acciari, V. A., et al.
(författare)
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Radio Imaging of the Very-High-Energy gamma-Ray Emission Region in the Central Engine of a Radio Galaxy
- 2009
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 325:5939, s. 444-448
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The accretion of matter onto a massive black hole is believed to feed the relativistic plasma jets found in many active galactic nuclei (AGN). Although some AGN accelerate particles to energies exceeding 10(12) electron volts and are bright sources of very-high-energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission, it is not yet known where the VHE emission originates. Here we report on radio and VHE observations of the radio galaxy Messier 87, revealing a period of extremely strong VHE gamma-ray flares accompanied by a strong increase of the radio flux from its nucleus. These results imply that charged particles are accelerated to very high energies in the immediate vicinity of the black hole.
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| 10. |
- Abramowski, A., et al.
(författare)
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The 2010 very high energy gamma-RAY flare and 10 years of multi-wavelength observations of M 87
- 2012
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 746:2, s. 151-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The giant radio galaxy M 87 with its proximity (16 Mpc), famous jet, and very massive black hole ((3-6) x 10(9) M-circle dot) provides a unique opportunity to investigate the origin of very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission generated in relativistic outflows and the surroundings of supermassive black holes. M 87 has been established as a VHE gamma-ray emitter since 2006. The VHE gamma-ray emission displays strong variability on timescales as short as a day. In this paper, results from a joint VHE monitoring campaign on M 87 by the MAGIC and VERITAS instruments in 2010 are reported. During the campaign, a flare at VHE was detected triggering further observations at VHE (H.E.S.S.), X-rays (Chandra), and radio (43 GHz Very Long Baseline Array, VLBA). The excellent sampling of the VHE gamma-ray light curve enables one to derive a precise temporal characterization of the flare: the single, isolated flare is well described by a two-sided exponential function with significantly different flux rise and decay times of tau(rise)(d) = (1.69 +/- 0.30) days and tau(decay)(d) = (0.611 +/- 0.080) days, respectively. While the overall variability pattern of the 2010 flare appears somewhat different from that of previous VHE flares in 2005 and 2008, they share very similar timescales (similar to day), peak fluxes (Phi(>0.35 TeV) similar or equal to (1-3) x 10(-11) photons cm(-2) s(-1)), and VHE spectra. VLBA radio observations of 43 GHz of the inner jet regions indicate no enhanced flux in 2010 in contrast to observations in 2008, where an increase of the radio flux of the innermost core regions coincided with a VHE flare. On the other hand, Chandra X-ray observations taken similar to 3 days after the peak of the VHE gamma-ray emission reveal an enhanced flux from the core (flux increased by factor similar to 2; variability timescale <2 days). The long-term (2001-2010) multi-wavelength (MWL) light curve of M 87, spanning from radio to VHE and including data from Hubble Space Telescope, Liverpool Telescope, Very Large Array, and European VLBI Network, is used to further investigate the origin of the VHE gamma-ray emission. No unique, common MWL signature of the three VHE flares has been identified. In the outer kiloparsec jet region, in particular in HST-1, no enhanced MWL activity was detected in 2008 and 2010, disfavoring it as the origin of the VHE flares during these years. Shortly after two of the three flares (2008 and 2010), the X-ray core was observed to be at a higher flux level than its characteristic range (determined from more than 60 monitoring observations: 2002-2009). In 2005, the strong flux dominance of HST-1 could have suppressed the detection of such a feature. Published models for VHE gamma-ray emission from M 87 are reviewed in the light of the new data.
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| 11. |
- Algaba, Juan-Carlos, et al.
(författare)
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Broadband Multi-wavelength Properties of M87 during the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope Campaign
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 911:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2017, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration succeeded in capturing the first direct image of the center of the M87 galaxy. The asymmetric ring morphology and size are consistent with theoretical expectations for a weakly accreting supermassive black hole of mass ∼6.5 × 109 M o˙. The EHTC also partnered with several international facilities in space and on the ground, to arrange an extensive, quasi-simultaneous multi-wavelength campaign. This Letter presents the results and analysis of this campaign, as well as the multi-wavelength data as a legacy data repository. We captured M87 in a historically low state, and the core flux dominates over HST-1 at high energies, making it possible to combine core flux constraints with the more spatially precise very long baseline interferometry data. We present the most complete simultaneous multi-wavelength spectrum of the active nucleus to date, and discuss the complexity and caveats of combining data from different spatial scales into one broadband spectrum. We apply two heuristic, isotropic leptonic single-zone models to provide insight into the basic source properties, but conclude that a structured jet is necessary to explain M87's spectrum. We can exclude that the simultaneous γ-ray emission is produced via inverse Compton emission in the same region producing the EHT mm-band emission, and further conclude that the γ-rays can only be produced in the inner jets (inward of HST-1) if there are strongly particle-dominated regions. Direct synchrotron emission from accelerated protons and secondaries cannot yet be excluded.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- Abe, H., et al.
(författare)
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Gamma-ray observations of MAXI J1820+070 during the 2018 outburst
- 2022
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 517:4, s. 4736-4751
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- MAXIJ1820+070 is a low-mass X-ray binary with a black hole (BH) as a compact object. This binary underwent an exceptionally bright X-ray outburst from 2018 March to October, showing evidence of a non-thermal particle population through its radio emission during this whole period. The combined results of 59.5 h of observations of the MAXI J1820+070 outburst with the H.E.S.S., MAGIC and VERITAS experiments at energies above 200 GeV are presented, together with Fermi-LAT data between 0.1 and 500 GeV, and multiwavelength observations from radio to X-rays. Gamma-ray emission is not detected from MAXI J1820+070, but the obtained upper limits and the multiwavelength data allow us to put meaningful constraints on the source properties under reasonable assumptions regarding the non-thermal particle population and the jet synchrotron spectrum. In particular, it is possible to show that, if a high-energy (HE) gamma-ray emitting region is present during the hard state of the source, its predicted flux should be at most a factor of 20 below the obtained Fermi-LAT upper limits, and closer to them for magnetic fields significantly below equipartition. During the state transitions, under the plausible assumption that electrons are accelerated up to similar to 500 GeV, the multiwavelength data and the gamma-ray upper limits lead consistently to the conclusion that a potential HE and very-HE gamma-ray emitting region should be located at a distance from the BH ranging between 10(11) and 10(13) cm. Similar outbursts from low-mass X-ray binaries might be detectable in the near future with upcoming instruments such as CTA.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Adams, C. B., et al.
(författare)
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Observation of the Gamma-Ray Binary HESS J0632+057 with the HESS, MAGIC, and VERITAS Telescopes
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 923:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The results of gamma-ray observations of the binary system HESS J0632 + 057 collected during 450 hr over 15 yr, between 2004 and 2019, are presented. Data taken with the atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS at energies above 350 GeV were used together with observations at X-ray energies obtained with Swift-XRT, Chandra, XMM-Newton, NuSTAR, and Suzaku. Some of these observations were accompanied by measurements of the H alpha emission line. A significant detection of the modulation of the very high-energy gamma-ray fluxes with a period of 316.7 +/- 4.4 days is reported, consistent with the period of 317.3 +/- 0.7 days obtained with a refined analysis of X-ray data. The analysis of data from four orbital cycles with dense observational coverage reveals short-timescale variability, with flux-decay timescales of less than 20 days at very high energies. Flux variations observed over a timescale of several years indicate orbit-to-orbit variability. The analysis confirms the previously reported correlation of X-ray and gamma-ray emission from the system at very high significance, but cannot find any correlation of optical H alpha parameters with fluxes at X-ray or gamma-ray energies in simultaneous observations. The key finding is that the emission of HESS J0632 + 057 in the X-ray and gamma-ray energy bands is highly variable on different timescales. The ratio of gamma-ray to X-ray flux shows the equality or even dominance of the gamma-ray energy range. This wealth of new data is interpreted taking into account the insufficient knowledge of the ephemeris of the system, and discussed in the context of results reported on other gamma-ray binary systems.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
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| 19. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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Very high-energy gamma-ray follow-up program using neutrino triggers from IceCube
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Instrumentation. - 1748-0221. ; 11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We describe and report the status of a neutrino-triggered program in IceCube that generates real-time alerts for gamma-ray follow-up observations by atmospheric-Cherenkov telescopes (MAGIC and VERITAS). While IceCube is capable of monitoring the whole sky continuously, high-energy gamma-ray telescopes have restricted fields of view and in general are unlikely to be observing a potential neutrino-flaring source at the time such neutrinos are recorded. The use of neutrino-triggered alerts thus aims at increasing the availability of simultaneous multi-messenger data during potential neutrino flaring activity, which can increase the discovery potential and constrain the phenomenological interpretation of the high-energy emission of selected source classes (e. g. blazars). The requirements of a fast and stable online analysis of potential neutrino signals and its operation are presented, along with first results of the program operating between 14 March 2012 and 31 December 2015.
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| 20. |
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| 21. |
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| 22. |
- Veres, P., et al.
(författare)
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Observation of inverse Compton emission from a long gamma-ray burst
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 575:7783, s. 459-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) originate from ultra-relativistic jets launched from the collapsing cores of dying massive stars. They are characterized by an initial phase of bright and highly variable radiation in the kiloelectron volt-to-mega electronvoltband, which is probably produced within the jet and lasts from milliseconds to minutes, known as the prompt emission(1,2). Subsequently, the interaction of the jet with the surrounding medium generates shock waves that are responsible for the afterglow emission, which lasts from days to months and occurs over a broad energy range from the radio to the gigaelectronvolt bands(1-6). The afterglow emission is generally well explained as synchrotron radiation emitted by electrons accelerated by the external shock(7-9). Recently, intense long-lasting emission between 0.2 and 1 teraelectronvolts was observed from GRB 190114C(10,11). Here we report multifrequency observations of GRB 190114C, and study the evolution in time of the GRB emission across 17 orders of magnitude in energy, from 5 x 10(-6) to 10(12) electronvolts. We find that the broadband spectral energy distribution is double-peaked, with the teraelectronvolt emission constituting a distinct spectral component with power comparable to the synchrotron component. This component is associated with the afterglow and is satisfactorily explained by inverse Compton up-scattering of synchrotron photons by high-energy electrons. We find that the conditions required to account for the observed teraelectronvolt component are typical for GRBs, supporting the possibility that inverse Compton emission is commonly produced in GRBs.
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| 23. |
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| 24. |
- Mayer, Manuel, et al.
(författare)
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Constraints on particle acceleration in SS433/W50 from MAGIC and HESS observations
- 2018
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. The large jet kinetic power and non-thermal processes occurring in the microquasar SS 433 make this source a good candidate for a very high-energy (VHE) gamma-ray emitter. Gamma-ray fluxes above the sensitivity limits of current Cherenkov telescopes have been predicted for both the central X-ray binary system and the interaction regions of SS 433 jets with the surrounding W50 nebula. Non-thermal emission at lower energies has been previously reported, indicating that efficient particle acceleration is taking place in the system. Aims. We explore the capability of SS 433 to emit VHE gamma rays during periods in which the expected flux attenuation due to periodic eclipses (P-orb similar to 13.1 days) and precession of the circumstellar disk (P-pre similar to 162 days) periodically covering the central binary system is expected to be at its minimum. The eastern and western SS 433/W50 interaction regions are also examined using the whole data set available. We aim to constrain some theoretical models previously developed for this system with our observations. Methods. We made use of dedicated observations from the Major Atmospheric Gamma Imaging Cherenkov telescopes (MAGIC) and High Energy Spectroscopic System (H.E.S.S.) of SS 433 taken from 2006 to 2011. These observation were combined for the first time and accounted for a total effective observation time of 16.5 h, which were scheduled considering the expected phases of minimum absorption of the putative VHE emission. Gamma-ray attenuation does not affect the jet/medium interaction regions. In this case, the analysis of a larger data set amounting to similar to 40-80 h, depending on the region, was employed. Results. No evidence of VHE gamma-ray emission either from the central binary system or from the eastern/western interaction regions was found. Upper limits were computed for the combined data set. Differential fluxes from the central system are found to be less than or similar to 10(-12)-10(-13) TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1) in an energy interval ranging from similar to few x 100 GeV to similar to few TeV. Integral flux limits down to similar to 10(-12)-10(-13) ph cm(-2) s(-1) and similar to 10(-13)-10(-14) ph cm(-2) s(-1) are obtained at 300 and 800 GeV, respectively. Our results are used to place constraints on the particle acceleration fraction at the inner jet regions and on the physics of the jet/medium interactions. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that the fraction of the jet kinetic power that is transferred to relativistic protons must be relatively small in SS 433, q(p) <= 2.5 x 10(-5), to explain the lack of TeV and neutrino emission from the central system. At the SS 433/W50 interface, the presence of magnetic fields greater than or similar to 10 mu G is derived assuming a synchrotron origin for the observed X-ray emission. This also implies the presence of high-energy electrons with E-e up to 50 TeV, preventing an efficient production of gamma-ray fluxes in these interaction regions.
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| 25. |
- Aleksic, J., et al.
(författare)
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DETECTION OF VERY HIGH ENERGY gamma-RAY EMISSION FROM THE PERSEUS CLUSTER HEAD-TAIL GALAXY IC 310 BY THE MAGIC TELESCOPES
- 2010
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Ingår i: The Astrophysical Journal Letters. - 2041-8205. ; 723:2, s. l207-L212
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on the detection with the MAGIC telescopes of very high energy (VHE) gamma-rays from IC 310, a head-tail radio galaxy in the Perseus galaxy cluster, observed during the interval 2008 November to 2010 February. The Fermi satellite has also detected this galaxy. The source is detected by MAGIC at a high statistical significance of 7.6 sigma in 20.6 hr of stereo data. The observed spectral energy distribution is flat with a differential spectral index of -2.00 +/- 0.14. The mean flux above 300 GeV, between 2009 October and 2010 February, (3.1 +/- 0.5) x 10(-12) cm(-2) s(-1), corresponds to (2.5 +/- 0.4)% of Crab Nebula units. Only an upper limit, of 1.9% of Crab Nebula units above 300 GeV, was obtained with the 2008 data. This, together with strong hints (>3 sigma) of flares in the middle of 2009 October and November, implies that the emission is variable. The MAGIC results favor a scenario with the VHE emission originating from the inner jet close to the central engine. More complicated models than a simple one-zone synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) scenario, e. g., multi-zone SSC, external Compton, or hadronic, may be required to explain the very flat spectrum and its extension over more than three orders of magnitude in energy.
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| 26. |
- Aleksic, J., et al.
(författare)
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PG 1553+113 : FIVE YEARS OF OBSERVATIONS WITH MAGIC
- 2012
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 748:1, s. 46-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the results of five years (2005-2009) of MAGIC observations of the BL Lac object PG 1553+113 at very high energies (VHEs; E > 100 GeV). Power-law fits of the individual years are compatible with a steady mean photon index Gamma = 4.27 +/- 0.14. In the last three years of data, the flux level above 150 GeV shows a clear variability (probability of constant flux < 0.001%). The flux variations are modest, lying in the range from 4% to 11% of the Crab Nebula flux. Simultaneous optical data also show only modest variability that seems to be correlated with VHE gamma-ray variability. We also performed a temporal analysis of (all available) simultaneous Fermi/Large Area Telescope data of PG 1553+113 above 1 GeV, which reveals hints of variability in the 2008-2009 sample. Finally, we present a combination of the mean spectrum measured at VHEs with archival data available for other wavelengths. The mean spectral energy distribution can be modeled with a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model, which gives the main physical parameters governing the VHE emission in the blazar jet.
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| 27. |
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| 28. |
- Aleksic, J., et al.
(författare)
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Discovery of VHE gamma-rays from the blazar 1ES 1215+303 with the MAGIC telescopes and simultaneous multi-wavelength observations
- 2012
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 544, s. A142-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. We present the discovery of very high energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission from the BL Lac object 1ES 1215+303 by the MAGIC telescopes and simultaneous multi-wavelength data in a broad energy range from radio to gamma-rays. Aims. We study the VHE gamma-ray emission from 1ES 1215+303 and its relation to the emissions in other wavelengths. Methods. Triggered by an optical outburst, MAGIC observed the source in 2011 January-February for 20.3 h. The target was monitored in the optical R-band by the KVA telescope that also performed optical polarization measurements. We triggered target of opportunity observations with the Swift satellite and obtained simultaneous and quasi-simultaneous data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope and from the Metsahovi radio telescope. We also present the analysis of older MAGIC data taken in 2010. Results. The MAGIC observations of 1ES 1215+303 carried out in 2011 January-February resulted in the first detection of the source at VHE with a statistical significance of 9.4 sigma. Simultaneously, the source was observed in a high optical and X-ray state. In 2010 the source was observed in a lower state in optical, X-ray, and VHE, while the GeV gamma-ray flux and the radio flux were comparable in 2010 and 2011. The spectral energy distribution obtained with the 2011 data can be modeled with a simple one zone SSC model, but it requires extreme values for the Doppler factor or the electron energy distribution.
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| 29. |
- Aleksic, J., et al.
(författare)
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MAGIC reveals a complex morphology within the unidentified gamma-ray source HESS J1857+026
- 2014
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 571
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims. HESS J1857+026 is an extended TeV gamma-ray source that was discovered by H. E. S. S. as part of its Galactic plane survey. Given its broadband spectral energy distribution and its spatial coincidence with the young energetic pulsar PSR J1856+0245, the source has been put forward as a pulsar wind nebula (PWN) candidate. MAGIC has performed follow-up observations aimed at mapping the source down to energies approaching 100 GeV in order to better understand its complex morphology. Methods. HESS J1857+026 was observed by MAGIC in 2010, yielding 29 h of good quality stereoscopic data that allowed us to map the source region in two separate ranges of energy. Results. We detected very-high-energy gamma-ray emission from HESS J1857+026 with a significance of 12 sigma above 150 GeV. The differential energy spectrum between 100 GeV and 13 TeV is described well by a power law function dN/dE = N-0(E/1TeV)(-Gamma) with N-0 = (5.37 +/- 0.44(stat) +/- 1.5(sys)) X 10(-12) (TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1)) and Gamma = 2.16 +/- 0.07(stat) +/- 0.15(sys), which bridges the gap between the GeV emission measured by Fermi-LAT and the multi-TeV emission measured by H.E.S.S.. In addition, we present a detailed analysis of the energy-dependent morphology of this region. We couple these results with archival multiwavelength data and outline evidence in favor of a two-source scenario, whereby one source is associated with a PWN, while the other could be linked with a molecular cloud complex containing an HII region and a possible gas cavity.
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| 30. |
- Chang, A. Y., et al.
(författare)
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Past, present, and future of global health financing : A review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995-2050
- 2019
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 393:10187, s. 2233-2260
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. Methods: We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health. Findings: Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4.00% (95% uncertainty interval 3.89-4.12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2.72% [2.61-2.84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5.55% [5.18-5.95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3.71% [3.10-4.34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8.0 trillion (7.8-8.1) in 2016 (comprising 8.6% [8.4-8.7] of the global economy and $10.3 trillion [10.1-10.6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0.4% (0.3-0.4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10.0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9.5 billion, 24.3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6.27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China’s contribution to DAH ($644.7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15.0 trillion (14.0-16.0) by 2050 (reaching 9.4% [7.6-11.3] of the global economy and $21.3 trillion [19.8-23.1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1.84% (1.68-2.02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0.6% (0.6-0.7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15.7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130.2 (122.9-136.9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125.9 [113.7-138.1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments’ increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending. Interpretation: Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets. © 2019 The Author(s).
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| 32. |
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| 33. |
- Nichols, E, et al.
(författare)
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Use of multidimensional item response theory methods for dementia prevalence prediction: an example using the Health and Retirement Survey and the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study
- 2021
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Ingår i: BMC medical informatics and decision making. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1472-6947. ; 21:1, s. 241-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundData sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden. Surveys with full diagnostic evaluations of dementia prevalence are prohibitively resource-intensive in many settings. However, validation samples from nationally representative surveys allow for the development of algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence nationally.MethodsUsing cognitive testing data and data on functional limitations from Wave A (2001–2003) of the ADAMS study (n = 744) and the 2000 wave of the HRS study (n = 6358) we estimated a two-dimensional item response theory model to calculate cognition and function scores for all individuals over 70. Based on diagnostic information from the formal clinical adjudication in ADAMS, we fit a logistic regression model for the classification of dementia status using cognition and function scores and applied this algorithm to the full HRS sample to calculate dementia prevalence by age and sex.ResultsOur algorithm had a cross-validated predictive accuracy of 88% (86–90), and an area under the curve of 0.97 (0.97–0.98) in ADAMS. Prevalence was higher in females than males and increased over age, with a prevalence of 4% (3–4) in individuals 70–79, 11% (9–12) in individuals 80–89 years old, and 28% (22–35) in those 90 and older.ConclusionsOur model had similar or better accuracy as compared to previously reviewed algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence in HRS, while utilizing more flexible methods. These methods could be more easily generalized and utilized to estimate dementia prevalence in other national surveys.
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| 34. |
- Ahnen, M. L., et al.
(författare)
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Limits to dark matter annihilation cross-section from a combined analysis of MAGIC and Fermi-LAT observations of dwarf satellite galaxies
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1475-7516. ; :2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the first joint analysis of gamma-ray data from the MAGIC Cherenkov telescopes and the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) to search for gamma-ray signals from dark matter annihilation in dwarf satellite galaxies. We combine 158 hours of Segue 1 observations with MAGIC with 6-year observations of 15 dwarf satellite galaxies by the Fermi-LAT. We obtain limits on the annihilation cross-section for dark matter particle masses between 10 GeV and 100 TeV - the widest mass range ever explored by a single gamma-ray analysis. These limits improve on previously published Fermi-LAT and MAGIC results by up to a factor of two at certain masses. Our new inclusive analysis approach is completely generic and can be used to perform a global, sensitivity-optimized dark matter search by combining data from present and future gamma-ray and neutrino detectors.
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| 35. |
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| 36. |
- Aleksic, J., et al.
(författare)
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Measurement of the Crab Nebula spectrum over three decades in energy with the MAGIC telescopes
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Astrophysics. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-4048 .- 2214-4056. ; 5-6, s. 30-38
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The MAGIC stereoscopic system collected 69 hours of Crab Nebula data between October 2009 and April 2011. Analysis of this data sample using the latest improvements in the MAGIC stereoscopic software provided an unprecedented precision of spectral and night-by-night light curve determination at gamma rays. We derived a differential spectrum with a single instrument from 50 GeV up to almost 30 TeV with 5 bins per energy decade. At low energies, MAGIC results, combined with Fermi-LAT data, show a flat and broad Inverse Compton peak. The overall fit to the data between 1 GeV and 30 TeV is not well described by a log-parabola function. We find that a modified log-parabola function with an exponent of 2.5 instead of 2 provides a good description of the data (chi(2)(red) = 35/26). Using systematic uncertainties of the MAGIC and Fermi-LAT measurements we determine the position of the Inverse Compton peak to be at (53 +/- 3(stat)+ 31(syst)-13(syst)) GeV, which is the most precise estimation up to date and is dominated by the systematic effects. There is no hint of the integral flux variability on daily scales at energies above 300 GeV when systematic uncertainties are included in the flux measurement. We consider three state-of-the-art theoretical models to describe the overall spectral energy distribution of the Crab Nebula. The constant B-field model cannot satisfactorily reproduce the VHE spectral measurements presented in this work, having particular difficulty reproducing the broadness of the observed IC peak. Most probably this implies that the assumption of the homogeneity of the magnetic field inside the nebula is incorrect. On the other hand, the time-dependent 1D spectral model provides a good fit of the new VHE results when considering a 80 mu G magnetic field. However, it fails to match the data when including the morphology of the nebula at lower wavelengths.
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| 37. |
- Blanton, Michael R., et al.
(författare)
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Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV : Mapping the Milky Way, Nearby Galaxies, and the Distant Universe
- 2017
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Ingår i: Astronomical Journal. - : IOP Publishing Ltd. - 0004-6256 .- 1538-3881. ; 154:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We describe the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV (SDSS-IV), a project encompassing three major spectroscopic programs. The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 (APOGEE-2) is observing hundreds of thousands of Milky Way stars at high resolution and. high signal-to-noise ratios in the near-infrared. The Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey is obtaining spatially resolved spectroscopy for thousands of nearby galaxies (median z similar to 0.03). The extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) is mapping the galaxy, quasar, and neutral gas distributions between z similar to 0.6 and 3.5 to constrain cosmology using baryon acoustic oscillations, redshift space distortions, and the shape of the power spectrum. Within eBOSS, we are conducting two major subprograms: the SPectroscopic IDentification of eROSITA Sources (SPIDERS), investigating X-ray AGNs. and galaxies in X-ray clusters, and the Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey (TDSS), obtaining spectra of variable sources. All programs use the 2.5 m Sloan Foundation Telescope at the. Apache Point Observatory; observations there began in Summer 2014. APOGEE-2 also operates a second near-infrared spectrograph at the 2.5 m du Pont Telescope at Las Campanas Observatory, with observations beginning in early 2017. Observations at both facilities are scheduled to continue through 2020. In keeping with previous SDSS policy, SDSS-IV provides regularly scheduled public data releases; the first one, Data Release 13, was made available in 2016 July.
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| 38. |
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| 39. |
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| 40. |
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| 41. |
- Abolfathi, Bela, et al.
(författare)
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The Fourteenth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey : First Spectroscopic Data from the Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey and from the Second Phase of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment
- 2018
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : IOP Publishing Ltd. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 235:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The fourth generation of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV) has been in operation since 2014 July. This paper describes the second data release from this phase, and the 14th from SDSS overall (making this Data Release Fourteen or DR14). This release makes the data taken by SDSS-IV in its first two years of operation (2014-2016 July) public. Like all previous SDSS releases, DR14 is cumulative, including the most recent reductions and calibrations of all data taken by SDSS since the first phase began operations in 2000. New in DR14 is the first public release of data from the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey; the first data from the second phase of the Apache Point Observatory (APO) Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE-2), including stellar parameter estimates from an innovative data-driven machine-learning algorithm known as "The Cannon"; and almost twice as many data cubes from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at APO (MaNGA) survey as were in the previous release (N = 2812 in total). This paper describes the location and format of the publicly available data from the SDSS-IV surveys. We provide references to the important technical papers describing how these data have been taken (both targeting and observation details) and processed for scientific use. The SDSS web site (www.sdss.org) has been updated for this release and provides links to data downloads, as well as tutorials and examples of data use. SDSS-IV is planning to continue to collect astronomical data until 2020 and will be followed by SDSS-V.
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| 42. |
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| 43. |
- Gkogkou, A., et al.
(författare)
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CONCERTO: Simulating the CO, [CII], and [CI] line emission of galaxies in a 117 deg2 field and the impact of field-to-field variance
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 670
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the submillimeter regime, spectral line scans and line intensity mapping (LIM) are new promising probes for the cold gas content and star formation rate of galaxies across cosmic time. However, both of these two measurements suffer from field-to-field variance. We study the effect of field-to-field variance on the predicted CO and [CII] power spectra from future LIM experiments such as CONCERTO, as well as on the line luminosity functions (LFs) and the cosmic molecular gas mass density that are currently derived from spectral line scans. We combined a 117 deg2 dark matter lightcone from the Uchuu cosmological simulation with the simulated infrared dusty extragalactic sky (SIDES) approach. The clustering of the dusty galaxies in the SIDES-Uchuu product is validated by reproducing the cosmic infrared background anisotropies measured by Herschel and Planck. We find that in order to constrain the CO LF with an uncertainty below 20%, we need survey sizes of at least 0.1 deg2. Furthermore, accounting for the field-to-field variance using only the Poisson variance can underestimate the total variance by up to 80%. The lower the luminosity is and the larger the survey size is, the higher the level of underestimate. At z < 3, the impact of field-to-field variance on the cosmic molecular gas density can be as high as 40% for the 4.6 arcmin2 field, but drops below 10% for areas larger than 0.2 deg2. However, at z > 3 the variance decreases more slowly with survey size and for example drops below 10% for 1 deg2 fields. Finally, we find that the CO and [CII] LIM power spectra can vary by up to 50% in 1 deg2 fields. This limits the accuracy of the constraints provided by the first 1 deg2 surveys. In addition the level of the shot noise power is always dominated by the sources that are just below the detection thresholds, which limits its potential for deriving number densities of faint [CII] emitters. We provide an analytical formula to estimate the field-to-field variance of current or future LIM experiments given their observed frequency and survey size. The underlying code to derive the field-to-field variance and the full SIDES-Uchuu products (catalogs, cubes, and maps) are publicly available.
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| 44. |
- Miglio, A., et al.
(författare)
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PLATO as it is : A legacy mission for Galactic archaeology
- 2017
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Ingår i: Astronomical Notes - Astronomische Nachrichten. - : WILEY-V C H VERLAG GMBH. - 0004-6337 .- 1521-3994. ; 338:6, s. 644-661
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Deciphering the assembly history of the Milky Way is a formidable task, which becomes possible only if one can produce high-resolution chrono-chemo-kinematical maps of the Galaxy. Data from large-scale astrometric and spectroscopic surveys will soon provide us with a well-defined view of the current chemo-kinematical structure of the Milky Way, but it will only enable a blurred view on the temporal sequence that led to the present-day Galaxy. As demonstrated by the (ongoing) exploitation of data from the pioneering photometric missions CoRoT, Kepler, and K2, asteroseismology provides the way forward: solar-like oscillating giants are excellent evolutionary clocks thanks to the availability of seismic constraints on their mass and to the tight age-initial mass relation they adhere to. In this paper we identify five key outstanding questions relating to the formation and evolution of the Milky Way that will need precise and accurate ages for large samples of stars to be addressed, and we identify the requirements in terms of number of targets and the precision on the stellar properties that are needed to tackle such questions. By quantifying the asteroseismic yields expected from PLATO for red giant stars, we demonstrate that these requirements are within the capabilities of the current instrument design, provided that observations are sufficiently long to identify the evolutionary state and allow robust and precise determination of acoustic-mode frequencies. This will allow us to harvest data of sufficient quality to reach a 10% precision in age. This is a fundamental prerequisite to then reach the more ambitious goal of a similar level of accuracy, which will be possible only if we have at hand a careful appraisal of systematic uncertainties on age deriving from our limited understanding of stellar physics, a goal that conveniently falls within the main aims of PLATO's core science. We therefore strongly endorse PLATO's current design and proposed observational strategy, and conclude that PLATO, as it is, will be a legacy mission for Galactic archaeology.
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| 45. |
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| 46. |
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| 47. |
- Casali, G., et al.
(författare)
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The Gaia-ESO survey : Calibrating a relationship between age and the [C/N] abundance ratio with open clusters
- 2019
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP SCIENCES S A. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 629
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context: In the era of large high-resolution spectroscopic surveys such as Gaia-ESO and APOGEE, high-quality spectra can contribute to our understanding of the Galactic chemical evolution by providing abundances of elements that belong to the different nucleosynthesis channels, and also by providing constraints to one of the most elusive astrophysical quantities: stellar age.Aims: Some abundance ratios, such as [C/N], have been proven to be excellent indicators of stellar ages. We aim at providing an empirical relationship between stellar ages and [C/N] using open star clusters, observed by the Gaia-ESO and APOGEE surveys, as calibrators.Methods: We used stellar parameters and abundances from the Gaia-ESO Survey and APOGEE Survey of the Galactic field and open cluster stars. Ages of star clusters were retrieved from the literature sources and validated using a common set of isochrones. We used the same isochrones to determine for each age and metallicity the surface gravity at which the first dredge-up and red giant branch bump occur. We studied the effect of extra-mixing processes in our sample of giant stars, and we derived the mean [C/N] in evolved stars, including only stars without evidence of extra mixing. By combining the Gaia-ESO and APOGEE samples of open clusters, we derived a linear relationship between [C/N] and (logarithmic) cluster ages.Results: We apply our relationship to selected giant field stars in the Gaia-ESO and APOGEE surveys. We find an age separation between thin-and thick-disc stars and age trends within their populations, with an increasing age towards lower metallicity populations.Conclusions: With this empirical relationship, we are able to provide an age estimate for giant stars in which C and N abundances are measured. For giant stars, the isochrone fitting method is indeed less sensitive than for dwarf stars at the turn-off. Our method can therefore be considered as an additional tool to give an independent estimate of the age of giant stars. The uncertainties in their ages is similar to those obtained using isochrone fitting for dwarf stars.
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| 48. |
- Magrini, L., et al.
(författare)
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The Gaia -ESO survey: Mixing processes in low-mass stars traced by lithium abundance in cluster and field stars
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 651
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims. We aim to constrain the mixing processes in low-mass stars by investigating the behaviour of the Li surface abundance after the main sequence. We take advantage of the data from the sixth internal data release of Gaia-ESO, IDR6, and from the Gaia Early Data Release 3, EDR3s. Methods. We selected a sample of main-sequence, sub-giant, and giant stars in which the Li abundance is measured by the Gaia-ESO survey. These stars belong to 57 open clusters with ages from 130 Myr to about 7 Gyr and to Milky Way fields, covering a range in [Fe/H] between -1.0and +0.5 dex, with few stars between -1.0 and -2.5dex. We studied the behaviour of the Li abundances as a function of stellar parameters. We inferred the masses of giant stars in clusters from the main-sequence turn-off masses, and for field stars through comparison with stellar evolution models using a maximum likelihood technique. We compared the observed Li behaviour in field giant stars and in giant stars belonging to individual clusters with the predictions of a set of classical models and of models with mixing induced by rotation and thermohaline instability. Results. The comparison with stellar evolution models confirms that classical models cannot reproduce the observed lithium abundances in the metallicity and mass regimes covered by the data. The models that include the effects of both rotation-induced mixing and thermohaline instability account for the Li abundance trends observed in our sample in all metallicity and mass ranges. The differences between the results of the classical models and of the rotation models largely differ (up to 2 dex), making lithium the best element with which to constrain stellar mixing processes in low-mass stars. We discuss the nature of a sample of Li-rich stars. Conclusions. We demonstrate that the evolution of the surface abundance of Li in giant stars is a powerful tool for constraining theoretical stellar evolution models, allowing us to distinguish the effect of different mixing processes. For stars with well-determined masses, we find a better agreement of observed surface abundances and models with rotation-induced and thermohaline mixing. Rotation effects dominate during the main sequence and the first phases of the post-main-sequence evolution, and the thermohaline induced mixing after the bump in the luminosity function.
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| 49. |
- Barragán, Oscar, et al.
(författare)
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K2-98b: A 32 M ⊕ Neptune-Siza Planet in a 10 Day Orbit Transiting an F8 Star
- 2016
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Ingår i: Astronomical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-3881 .- 0004-6256. ; 152:6, s. Art. no. 193-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the discovery of K2-98b (EPIC 211391664b), a transiting Neptune-size planet monitored by the K2 mission during its Campaign 5. We combine the K2 time-series data with ground-based photometric and spectroscopic follow-up observations to confirm the planetary nature of the object and derive its mass, radius, and orbital parameters. K2-98b is a warm Neptune-like planet in a 10 day orbit around a V = 12.2 mag F-type star with M ? = 1.074 ±0.042 M o, R ? = R o, and age of . We derive a planetary mass and radius of M p = 32.2 ±8.1 M ? and R p = R ?. K2-98b joins the relatively small group of Neptune-size planets whose mass and radius have been derived with a precision better than 25%. We estimate that the planet will be engulfed by its host star in ?3 Gyr, due to the evolution of the latter toward the red giant branch.
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| 50. |
- Correia, Filipa, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring Prosociality in Human-Robot Teams
- 2019
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Ingår i: HRI '19. - : IEEE. - 9781538685556 ; , s. 143-151
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper explores the role of prosocial behaviour when people team up with robots in a collaborative game that presents a social dilemma similar to a public goods game. An experiment was conducted with the proposed game in which each participant joined a team with a prosocial robot and a selfish robot. During 5 rounds of the game, each player chooses between contributing to the team goal (cooperate) or contributing to his individual goal (defect). The prosociality level of the robots only affects their strategies to play the game, as one always cooperates and the other always defects. We conducted a user study at the office of a large corporation with 70 participants where we manipulated the game result (winning or losing) in a between-subjects design. Results revealed two important considerations: (1) the prosocial robot was rated more positively in terms of its social attributes than the selfish robot, regardless of the game result; (2) the perception of competence, the responsibility attribution (blame/credit), and the preference for a future partner revealed significant differences only in the losing condition. These results yield important concerns for the creation of robotic partners, the understanding of group dynamics and, from a more general perspective, the promotion of a prosocial society.
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