| 1. |
- Cummins, Donald P., et al.
(författare)
-
Reducing Parametrization Errors for Polar Surface Turbulent Fluxes Using Machine Learning
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Boundary-layer Meteorology. - : Springer. - 0006-8314 .- 1573-1472. ; 190:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Turbulent exchanges between sea ice and the atmosphere are known to influence the melting rate of sea ice, the development of atmospheric circulation anomalies and, potentially, teleconnections between polar and non-polar regions. Large model errors remain in the parametrization of turbulent heat fluxes over sea ice in climate models, resulting in significant uncertainties in projections of future climate. Fluxes are typically calculated using bulk formulae, based on Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, which have shown particular limitations in polar regions. Parametrizations developed specifically for polar conditions (e.g. representing form drag from ridges or melt ponds on sea ice) rely on sparse observations and thus may not be universally applicable. In this study, new data-driven parametrizations have been developed for surface turbulent fluxes of momentum, sensible heat and latent heat in the Arctic. Machine learning has already been used outside the polar regions to provide accurate and computationally inexpensive estimates of surface turbulent fluxes. To investigate the feasibility of this approach in the Arctic, we have fitted neural-network models to a reference dataset (SHEBA). Predictive performance has been tested using data from other observational campaigns. For momentum and sensible heat, performance of the neural networks is found to be comparable to, and in some cases substantially better than, that of a state-of-the-art bulk formulation. These results offer an efficient alternative to the traditional bulk approach in cases where the latter fails, and can serve to inform further physically based developments.
|
|
| 2. |
- Srivastava, Piyush, et al.
(författare)
-
Ship-based estimates of momentum transfer coefficient over sea ice and recommendations for its parameterization
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 22:7, s. 4763-4778
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A major source of uncertainty in both climate projections and seasonal forecasting of sea ice is inadequate representation of surface–atmosphere exchange processes. The observations needed to improve understanding and reduce uncertainty in surface exchange parameterizations are challenging to make and rare. Here we present a large dataset of ship-based measurements of surface momentum exchange (surface drag) in the vicinity of sea ice from the Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment (ACSE) in July–October 2014, and the Arctic Ocean 2016 experiment (AO2016) in August–September 2016. The combined dataset provides an extensive record of momentum flux over a wide range of surface conditions spanning the late summer melt and early autumn freeze-up periods, and a wide range of atmospheric stabilities. Surface exchange coefficients are estimated from in situ eddy covariance measurements. The local sea-ice fraction is determined via automated processing of imagery from ship-mounted cameras. The surface drag coefficient, CD10n, peaks at local ice fractions of 0.6–0.8, consistent with both recent aircraft-based observations and theory. Two state-of-the-art parameterizations have been tuned to our observations, with both providing excellent fits to the measurements.
|
|
| 3. |
- Jung, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
-
ADVANCING POLAR PREDICTION CAPABILITIES ON DAILY TO SEASONAL TIME SCALES
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 97:9, s. 1631-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fueled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with fewer in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting communites will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing: modeling, prediction, verification, user engagement, and educational activities.
|
|
| 4. |
- Svensson, Gunilla, et al.
(författare)
-
Warm air intrusions reaching the MOSAiC expedition in April 2020- The YOPP targeted observing period (TOP)
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Elementa. - : University of California Press. - 2325-1026. ; 11:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the spring period of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, an initiative was in place to increase the radiosounding frequency during warm air intrusions in the Atlantic Arctic sector. Two episodes with increased surface temperatures were captured during April 12–22, 2020, during a targeted observing period (TOP).The large-scale circulation efficiently guided the pulses of warm air into the Arctic and the observed surface temperature increased from -30◦C to near melting conditions marking the transition to spring, as the temperatures did not return to values below -20◦C. Back-trajectory analysis identifies 3 pathways for the transport. For the first temperature maximum, the circulation guided the airmass over the Atlantic to the northern Norwegian coast and then to the MOSAiC site.The second pathway was from the south, and it passed over the Greenland ice sheet and arrived at the observational site as a warm but dry airmass due to precipitation on the windward side.The third pathway was along the Greenland coast and the arriving airmass was both warm and moist. The back trajectories originating from pressure levels between 700 and 900 hPa line up vertically, which is somewhat surprising in this dynamically active environment. The processes acting along the trajectory originating from 800 hPa at the MOSAIC site are analyzed. Vertical profiles and surface energy exchange are presented to depict the airmass transformation based on ERA5 reanalysis fields. The TOP could be used for model evaluation and Lagrangian model studies to improve the representation of the small-scale physical processes that are important for airmass transformation. A comparison between MOSAiC observations and ERA5 reanalysis demonstrates challenges in the representation of small-scale processes, such as turbulence and the contributions to various terms of the surface energy budget, that are often misrepresented in numerical weather prediction and climate models.
|
|
