| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 3. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Shupe, M. D., et al.
(författare)
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Overview of the MOSAiC expedition : Atmosphere
- 2022
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Ingår i: Elementa. - : University of California Press. - 2325-1026. ; 10:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With the Arctic rapidly changing, the needs to observe, understand, and model the changes are essential. To support these needs, an annual cycle of observations of atmospheric properties, processes, and interactions were made while drifting with the sea ice across the central Arctic during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition from October 2019 to September 2020. An international team designed and implemented the comprehensive program to document and characterize all aspects of the Arctic atmospheric system in unprecedented detail, using a variety of approaches, and across multiple scales. These measurements were coordinated with other observational teams to explore crosscutting and coupled interactions with the Arctic Ocean, sea ice, and ecosystem through a variety of physical and biogeochemical processes. This overview outlines the breadth and complexity of the atmospheric research program, which was organized into 4 subgroups: atmospheric state, clouds and precipitation, gases and aerosols, and energy budgets. Atmospheric variability over the annual cycle revealed important influences from a persistent large-scale winter circulation pattern, leading to some storms with pressure and winds that were outside the interquartile range of past conditions suggested by long-term reanalysis. Similarly, the MOSAiC location was warmer and wetter in summer than the reanalysis climatology, in part due to its close proximity to the sea ice edge. The comprehensiveness of the observational program for characterizing and analyzing atmospheric phenomena is demonstrated via a winter case study examining air mass transitions and a summer case study examining vertical atmospheric evolution. Overall, the MOSAiC atmospheric program successfully met its objectives and was the most comprehensive atmospheric measurement program to date conducted over the Arctic sea ice. The obtained data will support a broad range of coupled-system scientific research and provide an important foundation for advancing multiscale modeling capabilities in the Arctic.
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| 6. |
- Wendisch, M., et al.
(författare)
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Atmospheric and Surface Processes, and Feedback Mechanisms Determining Arctic Amplification: A Review of First Results and Prospects of the (AC)(3) Project
- 2023
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Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 104:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mechanisms behind the phenomenon of Arctic amplification are widely discussed. To contribute to this debate, the (AC)(3) project was established in 2016 (www.ac3-tr.de/). It comprises modeling and data analysis efforts as well as observational elements. The project has assembled a wealth of ground-based, airborne, shipborne, and satellite data of physical, chemical, and meteorological properties of the Arctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and upper ocean that are available for the Arctic climate research community. Short-term changes and indications of long-term trends in Arctic climate parameters have been detected using existing and new data. For example, a distinct atmospheric moistening, an increase of regional storm activities, an amplified winter warming in the Svalbard and North Pole regions, and a decrease of sea ice thickness in the Fram Strait and of snow depth on sea ice have been identified. A positive trend of tropospheric bromine monoxide (BrO) column densities during polar spring was verified. Local marine/biogenic sources for cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles were found. Atmospheric-ocean and radiative transfer models were advanced by applying new parameterizations of surface albedo, cloud droplet activation, convective plumes and related processes over leads, and turbulent transfer coefficients for stable surface layers. Four modes of the surface radiative energy budget were explored and reproduced by simulations. To advance the future synthesis of the results, cross-cutting activities are being developed aiming to answer key questions in four focus areas: lapse rate feedback, surface processes, Arctic mixed-phase clouds, and airmass transport and transformation.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Angelopoulus, M., et al.
(författare)
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Physical properties of sea ice cores from site MCS_FYI measured on legs 1 to 3 of the MOSAiC expedition.
- 2022
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Ingår i: PANGAEA.
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We present sea ice temperature and salinity data from first-year ice (FYI) and second-year ice (SYI) relevant to the temporal development of sea ice permeability and brine drainage efficiency from the early growth phase in October 2019 to the onset of spring warming in May 2020. Our dataset was collected in the central Arctic Ocean during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) Expedition in 2019 to 2020. MOSAiC was an international transpolar drift expedition in which the German icebreaker RV Polarstern anchored into an ice floe to gain new insights into Arctic climate over a full annual cycle. In October 2019, RV Polarstern moored to an ice floe in the Siberian sector of the Arctic at 85 degrees north and 137 degrees east to begin the drift towards the North Pole and the Fram Strait via the Transpolar Drift Stream. The data presented here were collected during the first three legs of the expedition, so all the coring activities took place on the same floe. The end dates of legs 1, 2, and 3 were 13 December, 24 February, and 4 June, respectively. The dataset contributed to a baseline study entitled, Deciphering the properties of different Arctic ice types during the growth phase of the MOSAiC floes: Implications for future studies. The study highlights downward directed gas pathways in FYI and SYI by inferring sea ice permeability and potential brine release from several time series of temperature and salinity measurements. The physical properties presented in this paper lay the foundation for subsequent analyses on actual gas contents measured in the ice cores, as well as air-ice and ice-ocean gas fluxes. Sea ice cores were collected with a Kovacs Mark II 9 cm diameter corer. To measure ice temperatures, about 4.5 cm deep holes were drilled into the core (intervals varied by site and leg) . The temperatures were measured by a digital thermometer within minutes after the cores were retrieved. The ice cores were placed into pre-labelled plastic sleeves sealed at the bottom end. The ice cores were transported to RV Polarstern and stored in a -20 degrees Celsius freezer. Each of the cores was sub-sampled, melted at room temperature, and processed for salinity within one or two days. The practical salinity was estimated by measuring the electrical conductivity and temperature of the melted samples using a WTW Cond 3151 salinometer equipped with a Tetra-Con 325 four-electrode conductivity cell. The practical salinity represents the the salinity estimated from the electrical conductivity of the solution. The dataset also contains derived variables, including sea ice density, brine volume fraction, and the Rayleigh number.
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| 9. |
- Angelopoulus, M., et al.
(författare)
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Physical properties of sea ice cores from site MCS-SYI measured on legs 1 to 3 of the MOSAiC expedition
- 2022
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Ingår i: PANGAEA.
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We present sea ice temperature and salinity data from first-year ice (FYI) and second-year ice (SYI) relevant to the temporal development of sea ice permeability and brine drainage efficiency from the early growth phase in October 2019 to the onset of spring warming in May 2020. Our dataset was collected in the central Arctic Ocean during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) Expedition in 2019 to 2020. MOSAiC was an international transpolar drift expedition in which the German icebreaker RV Polarstern anchored into an ice floe to gain new insights into Arctic climate over a full annual cycle. In October 2019, RV Polarstern moored to an ice floe in the Siberian sector of the Arctic at 85 degrees north and 137 degrees east to begin the drift towards the North Pole and the Fram Strait via the Transpolar Drift Stream. The data presented here were collected during the first three legs of the expedition, so all the coring activities took place on the same floe. The end dates of legs 1, 2, and 3 were 13 December, 24 February, and 4 June, respectively. The dataset contributed to a baseline study entitled, Deciphering the properties of different Arctic ice types during the growth phase of the MOSAiC floes: Implications for future studies. The study highlights downward directed gas pathways in FYI and SYI by inferring sea ice permeability and potential brine release from several time series of temperature and salinity measurements. The physical properties presented in this paper lay the foundation for subsequent analyses on actual gas contents measured in the ice cores, as well as air-ice and ice-ocean gas fluxes. Sea ice cores were collected with a Kovacs Mark II 9 cm diameter corer. To measure ice temperatures, about 4.5 cm deep holes were drilled into the core (intervals varied by site and leg) . The temperatures were measured by a digital thermometer within minutes after the cores were retrieved. The ice cores were placed into pre-labelled plastic sleeves sealed at the bottom end. The ice cores were transported to RV Polarstern and stored in a -20 degrees Celsius freezer. Each of the cores was sub-sampled, melted at room temperature, and processed for salinity within one or two days. The practical salinity was estimated by measuring the electrical conductivity and temperature of the melted samples using a WTW Cond 3151 salinometer equipped with a Tetra-Con 325 four-electrode conductivity cell. The practical salinity represents the the salinity estimated from the electrical conductivity of the solution. The dataset also contains derived variables, including sea ice density, brine volume fraction, and the Rayleigh number.
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| 10. |
- Janssen, Annette B. G., et al.
(författare)
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Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models : a community perspective
- 2015
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Ingår i: Aquatic Ecology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1386-2588 .- 1573-5125. ; 49:4, s. 513-548
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality management. In this spirit, numerous models have been developed since the 1970s. We set off to explore model diversity by making an inventory among 42 aquatic ecosystem modellers, by categorizing the resulting set of models and by analysing them for diversity. We then focus on how to exploit model diversity by comparing and combining different aspects of existing models. Finally, we discuss how model diversity came about in the past and could evolve in the future. Throughout our study, we use analogies from biodiversity research to analyse and interpret model diversity. We recommend to make models publicly available through open-source policies, to standardize documentation and technical implementation of models, and to compare models through ensemble modelling and interdisciplinary approaches. We end with our perspective on how the field of aquatic ecosystem modelling might develop in the next 5-10 years. To strive for clarity and to improve readability for non-modellers, we include a glossary.
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| 11. |
- Salganik, E., et al.
(författare)
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Temporal evolution of under-ice meltwater layers and false bottoms and their impact on summer Arctic sea ice mass balance
- 2023
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Ingår i: Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene. - 2325-1026. ; 11:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Low-salinity meltwater from Arctic sea ice and its snow cover accumulates and creates under-ice meltwater layers below sea ice. These meltwater layers can result in the formation of new ice layers, or false bottoms, at the interface of this low-salinity meltwater and colder seawater. As part of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of the Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), we used a combination of sea ice coring, temperature profiles from thermistor strings and underwater multibeam sonar surveys with a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) to study the areal coverage and temporal evolution of under-ice meltwater layers and false bottoms during the summer melt season from mid-June until late July. ROV surveys indicated that the areal coverage of false bottoms for a part of the MOSAiC Central Observatory (350 by 200 m2) was 21%. Presence of false bottoms reduced bottom ice melt by 7-8% due to the local decrease in the ocean heat flux, which can be described by a thermodynamic model. Under-ice meltwater layer thickness was larger below first-year ice and thinner below thicker second-year ice. We also found that thick ice and ridge keels confined the areas in which under-ice meltwater accumulated, preventing its mixing with underlying seawater. While a thermodynamic model could reproduce false bottom growth and melt, it could not describe the observed bottom melt rates of the ice above false bottoms. We also show that the evolution of under-ice meltwaterlayer salinity below first-year ice is linked to brine flushing from the above sea ice and accumulating in the meltwater layer above the false bottom. The results of this study aid in estimating the contribution of underice meltwater layers and false bottoms to the mass balance and salt budget for Arctic summer sea ice.
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| 12. |
- Schuur, E. A. G., et al.
(författare)
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Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change
- 2013
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 119:2, s. 359-374
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19-45 Pg C by 2040, 162-288 Pg C by 2100, and 381-616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.
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| 13. |
- Bowers, Robert M., et al.
(författare)
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Minimum information about a single amplified genome (MISAG) and a metagenome-assembled genome (MIMAG) of bacteria and archaea
- 2017
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Ingår i: Nature Biotechnology. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 1087-0156 .- 1546-1696. ; 35:8, s. 725-731
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present two standards developed by the Genomic Standards Consortium (GSC) for reporting bacterial and archaeal genome sequences. Both are extensions of the Minimum Information about Any (x) Sequence (MIxS). The standards are the Minimum Information about a Single Amplified Genome (MISAG) and the Minimum Information about a Metagenome-Assembled Genome (MIMAG), including, but not limited to, assembly quality, and estimates of genome completeness and contamination. These standards can be used in combination with other GSC checklists, including the Minimum Information about a Genome Sequence (MIGS), Minimum Information about a Metagenomic Sequence (MIMS), and Minimum Information about a Marker Gene Sequence (MIMARKS). Community-wide adoption of MISAG and MIMAG will facilitate more robust comparative genomic analyses of bacterial and archaeal diversity.
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| 14. |
- Akperov, M., et al.
(författare)
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Trends of intense cyclone activity in the Arctic from reanalyses data and regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)
- 2019. - 1
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Ingår i: Turbulence, Atmosphere and Climate Dynamics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1755-1307. ; 231
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ability of state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate the trends of intense cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large-scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble in winter and summer are compared with the results from four reanalyses (ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, NASA-MERRA2 and JMA-JRA55) in winter and summer for 1981-2010 period.
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| 15. |
- Bruce, Louise C, et al.
(författare)
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A multi-lake comparative analysis of the General Lake Model (GLM) : Stress-testing across a global observatory network
- 2018
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Ingår i: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 102, s. 274-291
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The modelling community has identified challenges for the integration and assessment of lake models due to the diversity of modelling approaches and lakes. In this study, we develop and assess a one-dimensional lake model and apply it to 32 lakes from a global observatory network. The data set included lakes over broad ranges in latitude, climatic zones, size, residence time, mixing regime and trophic level. Model performance was evaluated using several error assessment metrics, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted for nine parameters that governed the surface heat exchange and mixing efficiency. There was low correlation between input data uncertainty and model performance and predictions of temperature were less sensitive to model parameters than prediction of thermocline depth and Schmidt stability. The study provides guidance to where the general model approach and associated assumptions work, and cases where adjustments to model parameterisations and/or structure are required.
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| 16. |
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| 17. |
- McGuire, A. David, et al.
(författare)
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Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
- 2016
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 30:7, s. 1015-1037
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8x10(3)km(2)yr(-1)). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954TgCyr(-1) between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982-2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.
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| 18. |
- Peng, S., et al.
(författare)
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Simulated high-latitude soil thermal dynamics during the past 4 decades
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Cryosphere. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1994-0424. ; 10:1, s. 179-192
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Soil temperature (Ts) change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. On seasonal and interannual timescales, the variability of Ts determines the active-layer depth, which regulates hydrological soil properties and biogeochemical processes. On the multi-decadal scale, increasing Ts not only drives permafrost thaw/retreat but can also trigger and accelerate the decomposition of soil organic carbon. The magnitude of permafrost carbon feedbacks is thus closely linked to the rate of change of soil thermal regimes. In this study, we used nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, all forced by different observation-based climate forcing during the period 1960–2000, to characterize the warming rate of Ts in permafrost regions. There is a large spread of Ts trends at 20 cm depth across the models, with trend values ranging from 0.010 ± 0.003 to 0.031 ± 0.005 °C yr−1. Most models show smaller increase in Ts with increasing depth. Air temperature (Tsub>a) and longwave downward radiation (LWDR) are the main drivers of Ts trends, but their relative contributions differ amongst the models. Different trends of LWDR used in the forcing of models can explain 61 % of their differences in Ts trends, while trends of Ta only explain 5 % of the differences in Ts trends. Uncertain climate forcing contributes a larger uncertainty in Ts trends (0.021 ± 0.008 °C yr−1, mean ± standard deviation) than the uncertainty of model structure (0.012 ± 0.001 °C yr−1), diagnosed from the range of response between different models, normalized to the same forcing. In addition, the loss rate of near-surface permafrost area, defined as total area where the maximum seasonal active-layer thickness (ALT) is less than 3 m loss rate, is found to be significantly correlated with the magnitude of the trends of Ts at 1 m depth across the models (R = −0.85, P = 0.003), but not with the initial total near-surface permafrost area (R = −0.30, P = 0.438). The sensitivity of the total boreal near-surface permafrost area to Ts at 1 m is estimated to be of −2.80 ± 0.67 million km2 °C−1. Finally, by using two long-term LWDR data sets and relationships between trends of LWDR and Ts across models, we infer an observation-constrained total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprising between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000. This corresponds to 9–18 % degradation of the current permafrost area.
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| 19. |
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| 20. |
- Wang, W., et al.
(författare)
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Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area
- 2016
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Ingår i: Cryosphere. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1994-0416. ; 10:1, s. 287-306
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135 × 104km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 ×104km2). However the uncertainty (1 to 128 × 104km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0°C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.
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| 21. |
- Akperov, Mirseid, et al.
(författare)
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Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX)
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. - 2169-8996 .- 2169-897X. ; 123:5, s. 2537-2554
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ability of state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large-scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble are compared with the results forced by four reanalyses (ERA-Interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2, and Japan Meteorological Agency-Japanese 55-year reanalysis) in winter and summer for 1981-2010 period. In addition, we compare cyclone statistics between ERA-Interim and the Arctic System Reanalysis reanalyses for 2000-2010. Biases in cyclone frequency, intensity, and size over the Arctic are also quantified. Variations in cyclone frequency across the models are partly attributed to the differences in cyclone frequency over land. The variations across the models are largest for small and shallow cyclones for both seasons. A connection between biases in the zonal wind at 200 hPa and cyclone characteristics is found for both seasons. Most models underestimate zonal wind speed in both seasons, which likely leads to underestimation of cyclone mean depth and deep cyclone frequency in the Arctic. In general, the regional climate models are able to represent the spatial distribution of cyclone characteristics in the Arctic but models that employ large-scale spectral nudging show a better agreement with ERA-Interim reanalysis than the rest of the models. Trends also exhibit the benefits of nudging. Models with spectral nudging are able to reproduce the cyclone trends, whereas most of the nonnudged models fail to do so. However, the cyclone characteristics and trends are sensitive to the choice of nudged variables.
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| 22. |
- Akperov, Mirseid, et al.
(författare)
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Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)
- 2019
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Ingår i: Global and Planetary Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-8181 .- 1872-6364. ; 182
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity (frequency, depth and size) in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative and global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter (DJF) and a decrease in summer (JJA) to the end of the 21st century. However, in one half of the RCMs, cyclones become weaker and substantially smaller in winter and deeper and larger in summer. RCMs as well as GCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency over the Baffin Bay, Barents Sea, north of Greenland, Canadian Archipelago, and a decrease over the Nordic Seas, Kara and Beaufort Seas and over the sub-arctic continental regions in winter. In summer, the models simulate an increase of cyclone frequency over the Central Arctic and Greenland Sea and a decrease over the Norwegian and Kara Seas by the end of the 21st century. The decrease is also found over the high-latitude continental areas, in particular, over east Siberia and Alaska. The sensitivity of the RCMs' projections to the boundary conditions and model physics is estimated. In general, different lateral boundary conditions from the GCMs have larger effects on the simulated RCM projections than the differences in RCMs' setup and/or physics.
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| 23. |
- Akperov, Mirseid, et al.
(författare)
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Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 16:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Arctic cyclones, as a prevalent feature in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system, have large impacts on the atmospheric transport of heat and moisture and deformation and drifting of sea ice. Previous studies based on historical and future simulations with climate models suggest that Arctic cyclogenesis is affected by the Arctic amplification of global warming, for instance, a growing land-sea thermal contrast. We thus hypothesize that biogeophysical feedbacks (BF) over the land, here mainly referring to the albedo-induced warming in spring and evaporative cooling in summer, may have the potential to significantly change cyclone activity in the Arctic. Based on a regional Earth system model (RCA-GUESS) which couples a dynamic vegetation model and a regional atmospheric model and an algorithm of cyclone detection and tracking, this study assesses for the first time the impacts of BF on the characteristics of Arctic cyclones under three IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our analysis focuses on the spring- and summer time periods, since previous studies showed BF are the most pronounced in these seasons. We find that BF induced by changes in surface heat fluxes lead to changes in land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric stability. This, in turn, noticeably changes the atmospheric baroclinicity and, thus, leads to a change of cyclone activity in the Arctic, in particular to the increase of cyclone frequency over the Arctic Ocean in spring. This study highlights the importance of accounting for BF in the prediction of Arctic cyclones and the role of circulation in the Arctic regional Earth system.
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| 24. |
- Marcé, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Automatic High Frequency Monitoring for Improved Lake and Reservoir Management
- 2016
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Ingår i: Environmental Science and Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 50:20, s. 10780-10794
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent technological developments have increased the number of variables being monitored in lakes and reservoirs using automatic high frequency monitoring (AHFM). However, design of AHFM systems and posterior data handling and interpretation are currently being developed on a site-by-site and issue-by-issue basis with minimal standardization of protocols or knowledge sharing. As a result, many deployments become short-lived or underutilized, and many new scientific developments that are potentially useful for water management and environmental legislation remain underexplored. This Critical Review bridges scientific uses of AHFM with their applications by providing an overview of the current AHFM capabilities, together with examples of successful applications. We review the use of AHFM for maximizing the provision of ecosystem services supplied by lakes and reservoirs (consumptive and non consumptive uses, food production, and recreation), and for reporting lake status in the EU Water Framework Directive. We also highlight critical issues to enhance the application of AHFM, and suggest the establishment of appropriate networks to facilitate knowledge sharing and technological transfer between potential users. Finally, we give advice on how modern sensor technology can successfully be applied on a larger scale to the management of lakes and reservoirs and maximize the ecosystem services they provide.
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| 25. |
- Nesti, Cedric, et al.
(författare)
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Hemicolectomy versus appendectomy for patients with appendiceal neuroendocrine tumours 1-2 cm in size : a retrospective, Europe-wide, pooled cohort study
- 2023
-
Ingår i: The Lancet Oncology. - : Elsevier. - 1470-2045 .- 1474-5488. ; 24:2, s. 187-194
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundAwareness of the potential global overtreatment of patients with appendiceal neuroendocrine tumours (NETs) of 1–2 cm in size by performing oncological resections is increasing, but the rarity of this tumour has impeded clear recommendations to date. We aimed to assess the malignant potential of appendiceal NETs of 1–2 cm in size in patients with or without right-sided hemicolectomy.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, we pooled data from 40 hospitals in 15 European countries for patients of any age and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status with a histopathologically confirmed appendiceal NET of 1–2 cm in size who had a complete resection of the primary tumour between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2010. Patients either had an appendectomy only or an appendectomy with oncological right-sided hemicolectomy or ileocecal resection. Predefined primary outcomes were the frequency of distant metastases and tumour-related mortality. Secondary outcomes included the frequency of regional lymph node metastases, the association between regional lymph node metastases and histopathological risk factors, and overall survival with or without right-sided hemicolectomy. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the relative all-cause mortality hazard associated with right-sided hemicolectomy compared with appendectomy alone. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03852693.Findings282 patients with suspected appendiceal tumours were identified, of whom 278 with an appendiceal NET of 1–2 cm in size were included. 163 (59%) had an appendectomy and 115 (41%) had a right-sided hemicolectomy, 110 (40%) were men, 168 (60%) were women, and mean age at initial surgery was 36·0 years (SD 18·2). Median follow-up was 13·0 years (IQR 11·0–15·6). After centralised histopathological review, appendiceal NETs were classified as a possible or probable primary tumour in two (1%) of 278 patients with distant peritoneal metastases and in two (1%) 278 patients with distant metastases in the liver. All metastases were diagnosed synchronously with no tumour-related deaths during follow-up. Regional lymph node metastases were found in 22 (20%) of 112 patients with right-sided hemicolectomy with available data. On the basis of histopathological risk factors, we estimated that 12·8% (95% CI 6·5 –21·1) of patients undergoing appendectomy probably had residual regional lymph node metastases. Overall survival was similar between patients with appendectomy and right-sided hemicolectomy (adjusted hazard ratio 0·88 [95% CI 0·36–2·17]; p=0·71).InterpretationThis study provides evidence that right-sided hemicolectomy is not indicated after complete resection of an appendiceal NET of 1–2 cm in size by appendectomy, that regional lymph node metastases of appendiceal NETs are clinically irrelevant, and that an additional postoperative exclusion of metastases and histopathological evaluation of risk factors is not supported by the presented results. These findings should inform consensus best practice guidelines for this patient cohort.
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| 26. |
- Stockwell, Jason D., et al.
(författare)
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Storm impacts on phytoplankton community dynamics in lakes
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : WILEY. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26:5, s. 2756-2784
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- In many regions across the globe, extreme weather events such as storms have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration due to climate change. Ecological theory predicts that such extreme events should have large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. High winds and precipitation associated with storms can affect lakes via short-term runoff events from watersheds and physical mixing of the water column. In addition, lakes connected to rivers and streams will also experience flushing due to high flow rates. Although we have a well-developed understanding of how wind and precipitation events can alter lake physical processes and some aspects of biogeochemical cycling, our mechanistic understanding of the emergent responses of phytoplankton communities is poor. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis that identifies how storms interact with lake and watershed attributes and their antecedent conditions to generate changes in lake physical and chemical environments. Such changes can restructure phytoplankton communities and their dynamics, as well as result in altered ecological function (e.g., carbon, nutrient and energy cycling) in the short- and long-term. We summarize the current understanding of storm-induced phytoplankton dynamics, identify knowledge gaps with a systematic review of the literature, and suggest future research directions across a gradient of lake types and environmental conditions.
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| 27. |
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| 28. |
- Wang, Wenli, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of air-soil temperature relationships simulated by land surface models during winter across the permafrost region
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Cryosphere. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1994-0416. ; 10:4, s. 1721-1737
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A realistic simulation of snow cover and its thermal properties are important for accurate modelling of permafrost. We analyse simulated relationships between air and near-surface (20 cm) soil temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region during winter, with a particular focus on snow insulation effects in nine land surface models, and compare them with observations from 268 Russian stations. There are large cross-model differences in the simulated differences between near-surface soil and air temperatures (ΔT; 3 to 14 °C), in the sensitivity of soil-to-air temperature (0.13 to 0.96 °C °C-1), and in the relationship between ΔT and snow depth. The observed relationship between ΔT and snow depth can be used as a metric to evaluate the effects of each model's representation of snow insulation, hence guide improvements to the model's conceptual structure and process parameterisations. Models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes and consider complex snow processes. Some models show poor performance in representing snow insulation due to underestimation of snow depth and/or overestimation of snow conductivity. Generally, models identified as most acceptable with respect to snow insulation simulate reasonable areas of near-surface permafrost (13.19 to 15.77 million km2). However, there is not a simple relationship between the sophistication of the snow insulation in the acceptable models and the simulated area of Northern Hemisphere near-surface permafrost, because several other factors, such as soil depth used in the models, the treatment of soil organic matter content, hydrology and vegetation cover, also affect the simulated permafrost distribution.
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| 29. |
- Xia, Jianyang, et al.
(författare)
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Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - 2169-8953. ; 122:2, s. 430-446
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246±6gCm-2yr-1), most models produced higher NPP (309±12gCm-2yr-1) over the permafrost region during 2000-2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982-2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800gCm-2yr-1), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPPmax). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change.
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| 30. |
- Akperov, Mirseid, et al.
(författare)
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Future projections of wind energy potentials in the arctic for the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Anthropocene. - 2213-3054. ; 44
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Arctic has warmed more than twice the rate of the entire globe. To quantify possible climate change effects, we calculate wind energy potentials from a multi-model ensemble of Arctic-CORDEX. For this, we analyze future changes of wind power density (WPD) using an eleven-member multi-model ensemble. Impacts are estimated for two periods (2020-2049 and 2070-2099) of the 21st century under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The multi-model mean reveals an increase of seasonal WPD over the Arctic in the future decades. WPD variability across a range of temporal scales is projected to increase over the Arctic. The signal amplifies by the end of 21st century. Future changes in the frequency of wind speeds at 100 m not useable for wind energy production (wind speeds below 4 m/s or above 25 m/s) has been analyzed. The RCM ensemble simulates a more frequent occurrence of 100 m non-usable wind speeds for the wind-turbines over Scandinavia and selected land areas in Alaska, northern Russia and Canada. In contrast, non-usable wind speeds decrease over large parts of Eastern Siberia and in northern Alaska. Thus, our results indicate increased potential of the Arctic for the development and production of wind energy. Bias corrected and not corrected near-surface wind speed and WPD changes have been compared with each other. It has been found that both show the same sign of future change, but differ in magnitude of these changes. The role of sea-ice retreat and vegetation expansion in the Arctic in future on near-surface wind speed variability has been also assessed. Surface roughness through sea-ice and vegetation changes may significantly impact on WPD variability in the Arctic.
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| 31. |
- Angelopoulos, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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Deciphering the Properties of Different Arctic Ice Types During the Growth Phase of MOSAiC: Implications for Future Studies on Gas Pathways
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Frontiers in Earth Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-6463. ; 10, s. 1-19
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The increased fraction of first year ice (FYI) at the expense of old ice (second-year ice (SYI) and multi-year ice (MYI)) likely affects the permeability of the Arctic ice cover. This in turn influences the pathways of gases circulating therein and the exchange at interfaces with the atmosphere and ocean. We present sea ice temperature and salinity time series from different ice types relevant to temporal development of sea ice permeability and brine drainage efficiency from freeze-up in October to the onset of spring warming in May. Our study is based on a dataset collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) Expedition in 2019 and 2020. These physical properties were used to derive sea ice permeability and Rayleigh numbers. The main sites included FYI and SYI. The latter was composed of an upper layer of residual ice that had desalinated but survived the previous summer melt and became SYI. Below this ice a layer of new first-year ice formed. As the layer of new first-year ice has no direct contact with the atmosphere, we call it insulated first-year ice (IFYI). The residual/SYI-layer also contained refrozen melt ponds in some areas. During the freezing season, the residual/SYI-layer was consistently impermeable, acting as barrier for gas exchange between the atmosphere and ocean. While both FYI and SYI temperatures responded similarly to atmospheric warming events, SYI was more resilient to brine volume fraction changes because of its low salinity (< 2). Furthermore, later bottom ice growth during spring warming was observed for SYI in comparison to FYI. The projected increase in the fraction of more permeable FYI in autumn and spring in the coming decades may favor gas exchange at the atmosphere-ice interface when sea ice acts as a source relative to the atmosphere. While the areal extent of old ice is decreasing, so is its thickness at the onset of freeze-up. Our study sets the foundation for studies on gas dynamics within the ice column and the gas exchange at both ice interfaces, i.e. with the atmosphere and the ocean.
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| 32. |
- Angelopoulos, M., et al.
(författare)
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Physical properties of sea ice cores from site BGC2 measured on legs 1 to 3 of the MOSAiC expedition
- 2022
-
Ingår i: PANGAEA.
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We present sea ice temperature and salinity data from first-year ice (FYI) and second-year ice (SYI) relevant to the temporal development of sea ice permeability and brine drainage efficiency from the early growth phase in October 2019 to the onset of spring warming in May 2020. Our dataset was collected in the central Arctic Ocean during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) Expedition in 2019 to 2020. MOSAiC was an international transpolar drift expedition in which the German icebreaker RV Polarstern anchored into an ice floe to gain new insights into Arctic climate over a full annual cycle. In October 2019, RV Polarstern moored to an ice floe in the Siberian sector of the Arctic at 85 degrees north and 137 degrees east to begin the drift towards the North Pole and the Fram Strait via the Transpolar Drift Stream. The data presented here were collected during the first three legs of the expedition, so all the coring activities took place on the same floe. The end dates of legs 1, 2, and 3 were 13 December, 24 February, and 4 June, respectively. The dataset contributed to a baseline study entitled, Deciphering the properties of different Arctic ice types during the growth phase of the MOSAiC floes: Implications for future studies. The study highlights downward directed gas pathways in FYI and SYI by inferring sea ice permeability and potential brine release from several time series of temperature and salinity measurements. The physical properties presented in this paper lay the foundation for subsequent analyses on actual gas contents measured in the ice cores, as well as air-ice and ice-ocean gas fluxes. Sea ice cores were collected with a Kovacs Mark II 9 cm diameter corer. To measure ice temperatures, about 4.5 cm deep holes were drilled into the core (intervals varied by site and leg) . The temperatures were measured by a digital thermometer within minutes after the cores were retrieved. The ice cores were placed into pre-labelled plastic sleeves sealed at the bottom end. The ice cores were transported to RV Polarstern and stored in a -20 degrees Celsius freezer. Each of the cores was sub-sampled, melted at room temperature, and processed for salinity within one or two days. The practical salinity was estimated by measuring the electrical conductivity and temperature of the melted samples using a WTW Cond 3151 salinometer equipped with a Tetra-Con 325 four-electrode conductivity cell. The practical salinity represents the the salinity estimated from the electrical conductivity of the solution. The dataset also contains derived variables, including sea ice density, brine volume fraction, and the Rayleigh number.
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| 33. |
- Breznau, Nate, et al.
(författare)
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Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:44
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study explores how researchers analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each teams workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
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| 34. |
- Carlsen, Esben Andreas, et al.
(författare)
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Peptide receptor radionuclide therapy in gastroenteropancreatic NEN G3 : a multicenter cohort study
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Endocrine-Related Cancer. - : Bioscientifica. - 1351-0088 .- 1479-6821. ; 26:2, s. 227-239
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) is an established treatment of metastatic neuroendocrine tumors grade 1-2 (G1-G2). However, its possible benefit in high-grade gastroenteropancreatic (GEP) neuroendocrine neoplasms (NEN G3) is largely unknown. We therefore aimed to assess the benefits and side effects of PRRT in patients with GEP NEN G3. We performed a retrospective cohort study at 12 centers to assess the efficacy and toxicity of PRRT in patients with GEP NEN G3. Outcomes were response rate, disease control rate, progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS) and toxicity. We included 149 patients (primary tumor: pancreatic n = 89, gastrointestinal n = 34, unknown n = 26). PRRT was first-line (n = 30), second-line (n = 62) or later-line treatment (n = 57). Of 114 patients evaluated, 1% had complete response, 41% partial response, 38% stable disease and 20% progressive disease. Of 104 patients with documented progressive disease before PRRT, disease control rate was 69%. The total cohort had median PFS of 14 months and OS of 29 months. Ki-67 21-54% (n = 125) vs Ki-67 >= 55% (n = 23): PFS 16 vs 6 months (P < 0.001) and OS 31 vs 9 months (P < 0.001). Well (n = 60) vs poorly differentiated NEN (n = 62): PFS 19 vs 8 months (P < 0.001) and OS 44 vs 19 months (P < 0.001). Grade 3-4 hematological or renal toxicity occurred in 17% of patients. This large multicenter cohort of patients with GEP NEN G3 treated with PRRT demonstrates promising response rates, disease control rates, PFS and OS as well as toxicity in patients with mainly progressive disease. Based on these results, PRRT may be considered for patients with GEP NEN G3.
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| 35. |
- Dombrowski, Nina, et al.
(författare)
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Undinarchaeota illuminate DPANN phylogeny and the impact of gene transfer on archaeal evolution
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Nature. - 2041-1723. ; 11:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The recently discovered DPANN archaea are a potentially deep-branching, monophyletic radiation of organisms with small cells and genomes. However, the monophyly and early emergence of the various DPANN clades and their role in life's evolution are debated. Here, we reconstructed and analysed genomes of an uncharacterized archaeal phylum (Candidatus Undinarchaeota), revealing that its members have small genomes and, while potentially being able to conserve energy through fermentation, likely depend on partner organisms for the acquisition of certain metabolites. Our phylogenomic analyses robustly place Undinarchaeota as an independent lineage between two highly supported 'DPANN' clans. Further, our analyses suggest that DPANN have exchanged core genes with their hosts, adding to the difficulty of placing DPANN in the tree of life. This pattern can be sufficiently dominant to allow identifying known symbiont-host clades based on routes of gene transfer. Together, our work provides insights into the origins and evolution of DPANN and their hosts. The evolutionary relationships within Archaea remain unresolved. Here, the authors used genomic approaches to study the Undinarchaeota, a previously uncharacterized clade of DPANN, shed light on their position in an updated archaeal phylogeny and illuminate the history of archaeal genome evolution.
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| 36. |
- Golub, Malgorzata, et al.
(författare)
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A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide : the ISIMIP Lake Sector
- 2022
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 15:11, s. 4597-4623
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.
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| 37. |
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| 38. |
- Li, Zhao, et al.
(författare)
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Non-uniform seasonal warming regulates vegetation greening and atmospheric CO2 amplification over northern lands
- 2018
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 13:12
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The enhanced vegetation growth by climate warming plays a pivotal role in amplifying the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 at northern lands (>50° N) since 1960s. However, the correlation between vegetation growth, temperature and seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 concentration have become elusive with the slowed increasing trend of vegetation growth and weakened temperature control on CO2 uptake since late 1990s. Here, based on in situ atmospheric CO2 concentration records from the Barrow observatory site, we found a slowdown in the increasing trend of the atmospheric CO2 amplitude from 1990s to mid-2000s. This phenomenon was associated with the paused decrease in the minimum CO2 concentration ([CO2]min), which was significantly correlated with the slowdown of vegetation greening and growing-season length extension. We then showed that both the vegetation greenness and growing-season length were positively correlated with spring but not autumn temperature over the northern lands. Furthermore, such asymmetric dependences of vegetation growth upon spring and autumn temperature cannot be captured by the state-of-art terrestrial biosphere models. These findings indicate that the responses of vegetation growth to spring and autumn warming are asymmetric, and highlight the need of improving autumn phenology in the models for predicting seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
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| 39. |
- Makkonen, Esko, et al.
(författare)
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Real-time time-dependent density functional theory implementation of electronic circular dichroism applied to nanoscale metal-organic clusters
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Chemical Physics. - : AIP Publishing. - 1089-7690 .- 0021-9606. ; 154:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Electronic circular dichroism (ECD) is a powerful spectroscopy method for investigating chiral properties at the molecular level. ECD calculations with the commonly used linear-response time-dependent density functional theory (LR-TDDFT) framework can be prohibitively costly for large systems. To alleviate this problem, we present here an ECD implementation within the projector augmented-wave method in a real-time-propagation TDDFT framework in the open-source GPAW code. Our implementation supports both local atomic basis sets and real-space finite-difference representations of wave functions. We benchmark our implementation against an existing LR-TDDFT implementation in GPAW for small chiral molecules. We then demonstrate the efficiency of our local atomic basis set implementation for a large hybrid nanocluster and discuss the chiroptical properties of the cluster.
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| 40. |
- Oteng, Antwi-Boasiako, et al.
(författare)
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Characterization of ANGPTL4 function in macrophages and adipocytes using Angptl4-knockout and Angptl4-hypomorphic mice[S]
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Lipid Research. - : AMER SOC BIOCHEMISTRY MOLECULAR BIOLOGY INC. - 0022-2275 .- 1539-7262. ; 60:10, s. 1741-1754
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Angiopoietin-like protein (ANGPTL)4 regulates plasma lipids, making it an attractive target for correcting dyslipidemia. However, ANGPTL4 inactivation in mice fed a high fat diet causes chylous ascites, an acute-phase response, and mesenteric lymphadenopathy. Here, we studied the role of ANGPTL4 in lipid uptake in macrophages and in the above-mentioned pathologies using Angptl4-hypomorphic and Angptl4(-/-) mice. Angptl4 expression in peritoneal and bone marrow-derived macrophages was highly induced by lipids. Recombinant ANGPTL4 decreased lipid uptake in macrophages, whereas deficiency of ANGPTL4 increased lipid uptake, upregulated lipid-induced genes, and increased respiration. ANGPTL4 deficiency did not alter LPL protein levels in macrophages. Angptl4-hypomorphic mice with partial expression of a truncated N-terminal ANGPTL4 exhibited reduced fasting plasma triglyceride, cholesterol, and NEFAs, strongly resembling Angptl4(-/-) mice. However, during high fat feeding, Angptl4-hypomorphic mice showed markedly delayed and attenuated elevation in plasma serum amyloid A and much milder chylous ascites than Angptl4(-/-) mice, despite similar abundance of lipid-laden giant cells in mesenteric lymph nodes. In conclusion, ANGPTL4 deficiency increases lipid uptake and respiration in macrophages without affecting LPL protein levels. Compared with the absence of ANGPTL4, low levels of N-terminal ANGPTL4 mitigate the development of chylous ascites and an acute-phase response in mice.
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| 41. |
- Pacione, R., et al.
(författare)
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Ground-based GNSS for climate research: review and perspectives
- 2021
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In climate research, the role of water vapour can hardly be overestimated. Water vapour is the most important natural greenhouse gas and is responsible for the largest known feedback mechanism for amplifying climate change. It also strongly influences atmospheric dynamics and the hydrologic cycle through surface evaporation, latent heat transport and diabatic heating, and is, in particular, a source of clouds and precipitation. Atmospheric water vapour is highly variable, both in space and in time. Therefore, measuring it remains a demanding and challenging task. The Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) estimated from GNSS observations, provided at a temporal resolution of minutes and under all weather conditions, can be converted to Integrated Water Vapour (IWV), if additional meteorological variables are available. Inconsistencies introduced into long-term time series from improved GNSS processing algorithms, instrumental, and environmental changes at GNSS stations make climate trend analyses challenging. Ongoing re-processing efforts using state-of-the-art models aim at providing consistent time series of tropospheric data, using 24+ years of GNSS observations from global and regional networks. GNSS is reaching the “maturity age” of 30 years when climate normal of ZTD/IWV (and horizontal gradients) can be derived. Being not assimilated in numerical weather prediction model reanalyses, GNSS products can also be used as independent datasets to validate climate model outputs (ZTD/IWV). However, what is the actual use of GNSS ZTDs in climate monitoring? What are the advantages of using GNSS ZTDs for climate monitoring? In addition, what would be the best ZTD time series to serve the climate community? The presentation will provide a review of the progress made in and the status of using GNSS tropospheric datasets for climate research, highlighting the challenges and pitfalls, and outlining the major remaining steps ahead. We will show examples demonstrating the benefits for climate monitoring brought by using GNSS ZTD and/or IWV datasets in complement to other observations. This contribution is related to the activities of JWG C.2: Quality control methods for climate applications of geodetic tropospheric parameters, https://iccc.iag-aig.org/joint-work-groups/216, of the IAG Inter-Commission Committee on "Geodesy for Climate Research" (ICCC).
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| 42. |
- Rinke, A., et al.
(författare)
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Arctic RCM simulations of temperature and precipitation derived indices relevant to future frozen ground conditions
- 2012
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Ingår i: Global and Planetary Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-8181 .- 1872-6364. ; 80-81, s. 136-148
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A regional climate model with high horizontal resolution (25 km) is used to downscale 20-year-long time slices of present-day (1980–1999) and future (2046–2065, 2080–2099) Arctic climate, as simulated by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model under the A1B emission scenario. Changes in simulated air temperature and derived indices at the end of the century indicate that significant impacts on permafrost conditions should be expected. But the magnitude of the change is regionally conditioned beyond what is obvious: Warm permafrost in the sporadic to discontinuous zone is threatened and may degrade or even complete thaw before the end of the century. A decrease in freezing and increase in thawing degree-days is interpreted as potential decrease in seasonal freeze depth and increase in active layer thickness (ALT). We show that for some regions increasing maximum summer temperature is associated with an increase of interannual temperature variability in summer, while in other regions decreased maximum summer temperatures are related to decreased variability. The occurrence of warm/cold summers and spells changes significantly in the future time slices using the present-day criteria for classification. Taken together this implies a regionally varying exposure to significant change in permafrost conditions. In addition to these aspects of the general warming trend that would promote an increase in ALT and a northward shift of the southern permafrost boundary, an analysis of the occurrence of warm summers and spells highlight some particularly vulnerable regions for permafrost degradation (e.g. West Siberian Plain, Laptev Sea coast, Canadian Archipelago), but also some less vulnerable regions (e.g. Mackenzie Mountains).
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| 43. |
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| 44. |
- Rinke, A, et al.
(författare)
-
Simulated Arctic atmospheric feedbacks associated with late summer sea ice anomalies
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0148-0227 .- 2156-2202 .- 2169-897X. ; 118:14, s. 7698-7714
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The coupled regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM is used to investigate feedbacks between September sea ice anomalies in the Arctic and atmospheric conditions in autumn and the subsequent winter. A six-member ensemble of simulations spanning the period 1949–2008 is analyzed. The results show that negative Arctic sea ice anomalies are associated with increased heat and moisture fluxes, decreased static stability, increased lower tropospheric moisture, and modified baroclinicity, synoptic activity, and atmospheric large-scale circulation. The circulation changes in the following winter display meridionalized flow but are not fully characteristic of a negative Arctic Oscillation pattern, though they do support cold winter temperatures in northern Eurasia. Internally generated climate variability causes significant uncertainty in the simulated circulation changes due to sea ice-atmosphere interactions. The simulated atmospheric feedback patterns depend strongly on the position and strength of the regional sea ice anomalies and on the analyzed time period. The strongest atmospheric feedbacks are related to sea ice anomalies in the Beaufort Sea. This work suggests that there are complex feedback mechanisms that support a statistical link between reduced September sea ice and Arctic winter circulation. However, the feedbacks depend on regional and decadal variations in the coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice system.
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