| 1. |
- Householder, John Ethan, et al.
(författare)
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One sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is dependent on river floodplains
- 2024
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Ingår i: NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION. - 2397-334X. ; 8, s. 901-911
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Amazonia's floodplain system is the largest and most biodiverse on Earth. Although forests are crucial to the ecological integrity of floodplains, our understanding of their species composition and how this may differ from surrounding forest types is still far too limited, particularly as changing inundation regimes begin to reshape floodplain tree communities and the critical ecosystem functions they underpin. Here we address this gap by taking a spatially explicit look at Amazonia-wide patterns of tree-species turnover and ecological specialization of the region's floodplain forests. We show that the majority of Amazonian tree species can inhabit floodplains, and about a sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is ecologically specialized on floodplains. The degree of specialization in floodplain communities is driven by regional flood patterns, with the most compositionally differentiated floodplain forests located centrally within the fluvial network and contingent on the most extraordinary flood magnitudes regionally. Our results provide a spatially explicit view of ecological specialization of floodplain forest communities and expose the need for whole-basin hydrological integrity to protect the Amazon's tree diversity and its function.
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| 2. |
- Luize, Bruno Garcia, et al.
(författare)
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Geography and ecology shape the phylogenetic composition of Amazonian tree communities
- 2024
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Ingår i: JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY. - 0305-0270 .- 1365-2699. ; 51:7, s. 1163-1184
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: Amazonia hosts more tree species from numerous evolutionary lineages, both young and ancient, than any other biogeographic region. Previous studies have shown that tree lineages colonized multiple edaphic environments and dispersed widely across Amazonia, leading to a hypothesis, which we test, that lineages should not be strongly associated with either geographic regions or edaphic forest types. Location: Amazonia. Taxon: Angiosperms (Magnoliids; Monocots; Eudicots). Methods: Data for the abundance of 5082 tree species in 1989 plots were combined with a mega-phylogeny. We applied evolutionary ordination to assess how phylogenetic composition varies across Amazonia. We used variation partitioning and Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM) to test and quantify the separate and joint contributions of spatial and environmental variables to explain the phylogenetic composition of plots. We tested the indicator value of lineages for geographic regions and edaphic forest types and mapped associations onto the phylogeny. Results: In the terra firme and v & aacute;rzea forest types, the phylogenetic composition varies by geographic region, but the igap & oacute; and white-sand forest types retain a unique evolutionary signature regardless of region. Overall, we find that soil chemistry, climate and topography explain 24% of the variation in phylogenetic composition, with 79% of that variation being spatially structured (R-2 = 19% overall for combined spatial/environmental effects). The phylogenetic composition also shows substantial spatial patterns not related to the environmental variables we quantified (R-2 = 28%). A greater number of lineages were significant indicators of geographic regions than forest types. Main Conclusion: Numerous tree lineages, including some ancient ones (>66 Ma), show strong associations with geographic regions and edaphic forest types of Amazonia. This shows that specialization in specific edaphic environments has played a long-standing role in the evolutionary assembly of Amazonian forests. Furthermore, many lineages, even those that have dispersed across Amazonia, dominate within a specific region, likely because of phylogenetically conserved niches for environmental conditions that are prevalent within regions.
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| 3. |
- ter Steege, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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Mapping density, diversity and species-richness of the Amazon tree flora
- 2023
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Ingår i: COMMUNICATIONS BIOLOGY. - 2399-3642. ; 6:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using 2.046 botanically-inventoried tree plots across the largest tropical forest on Earth, we mapped tree species-diversity and tree species-richness at 0.1-degree resolution, and investigated drivers for diversity and richness. Using only location, stratified by forest type, as predictor, our spatial model, to the best of our knowledge, provides the most accurate map of tree diversity in Amazonia to date, explaining approximately 70% of the tree diversity and species-richness. Large soil-forest combinations determine a significant percentage of the variation in tree species-richness and tree alpha-diversity in Amazonian forest-plots. We suggest that the size and fragmentation of these systems drive their large-scale diversity patterns and hence local diversity. A model not using location but cumulative water deficit, tree density, and temperature seasonality explains 47% of the tree species-richness in the terra-firme forest in Amazonia. Over large areas across Amazonia, residuals of this relationship are small and poorly spatially structured, suggesting that much of the residual variation may be local. The Guyana Shield area has consistently negative residuals, showing that this area has lower tree species-richness than expected by our models. We provide extensive plot meta-data, including tree density, tree alpha-diversity and tree species-richness results and gridded maps at 0.1-degree resolution. A study mapping the tree species richness in Amazonian forests shows that soil type exerts a strong effect on species richness, probably caused by the areas of these forest types. Cumulative water deficit, tree density and temperature seasonality affect species richness at a regional scale.
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| 4. |
- Schill, Caroline, 1984-, et al.
(författare)
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Sustaining local commons in the face of uncertain ecological thresholds : Evidence from a framed field experiment with Colombian small-scale fishers
- 2023
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Ingår i: Ecological Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-8009 .- 1873-6106. ; 207
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Due to climate change abrupt and persistent changes in ecosystems, impacting millions of livelihoods, are likely but hard to predict. How people respond to such uncertain 'regime shifts' is poorly understood. Here, we assess the potential for local collective action to avert uncertain, yet catastrophic, regime shifts using behavioural economic experiments with 256 small-scale fishers from the Colombian Caribbean coast. With a framed, dynamic common-pool resource game, we tested the effect of different degrees of uncertainty (risk, ambiguity, certainty) about the existence of climate-induced thresholds on group exploitation patterns. Results from four different communities show that groups uncertain about thresholds are likely to sustain higher stock levels, thus poten-tially averting regime shifts. We also find that threshold uncertainty does not influence exploitation beyond thresholds. However, catch inequalities in the game, and community-level factors influence such exploitation, and appear to limit or even eliminate treatment effects; highlighting the significant influence of context on behaviour. Contrasting previous evidence, our results suggest to focus less on determining precise threshold likelihoods, but rather on identifying and communicating what ecosystem variables might have thresholds, and their potential consequences. Hence, we provide a more hopeful outlook given the irreducible uncertainties in relation to global environmental change.
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| 5. |
- Wu, Tong, et al.
(författare)
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Triple Bottom Line or Trilemma? Global Tradeoffs Between Prosperity, Inequality, and the Environment
- 2024
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Ingår i: World Development. - 0305-750X .- 1873-5991. ; 178
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A key aim of sustainable development is the joint achievement of prosperity, equality, and environmental integrity: in other words, material living standards that are high, broadly -distributed, and low -impact. This has often been called the triple bottom line. But instead, what if there is a trilemmathat inhibits the simultaneous achievement of these three goals? We analysed international patterns and trends in the relationships between per -capita gross national income, the Gini coefficient for income distribution, and per -capita ecological footprint from 1995 to 2017, benchmarking them against thresholds from the existing literature. A dynamicanalysis of the trajectories of 59 countries and a staticanalysis of a larger sample of 140 countries found that none met the triple bottom line, and that instead there were widespread tradeoffs among the three indicators. These tradeoffs, leading to divergent national trajectories and country clusters, show that common pair -wise explanations such as Kuznets Curves do not adequately capture important development dynamics. In particular, while only a few countries simultaneously met the thresholds for prosperity and equality on the one hand and equality and environment on the other, none did for prosperity and environment. Moreover, inequality likely makes resolving this critical tradeoff more difficult. Our findings suggest that mitigating the sustainability trilemma may require countries - especially those that are already prosperous - to prioritize economic redistribution and environmental stewardship over further growth.
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| 6. |
- Bai, Xuemei, et al.
(författare)
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Translating Earth system boundaries for cities and businesses
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - 2398-9629. ; 7, s. 108-119
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Operating within safe and just Earth system boundaries requires mobilizing key actors across scale to set targets and take actions accordingly. Robust, transparent and fair cross-scale translation methods are essential to help navigate through the multiple steps of scientific and normative judgements in translation, with clear awareness of associated assumptions, bias and uncertainties. Here, through literature review and expert elicitation, we identify commonly used sharing approaches, illustrate ten principles of translation and present a protocol involving key building blocks and control steps in translation. We pay particular attention to businesses and cities, two understudied but critical actors to bring on board.
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| 7. |
- Burgos-Ayala, Aracely, et al.
(författare)
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Mapping ecosystem services in Colombia : Analysis of synergies, trade-offs and bundles in environmental management
- 2024
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Ingår i: Ecosystem Services. - 2212-0416. ; 66
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ecosystem services (ES) have gained significant attention in recent years from the global environmental initiatives that involve science and policy. Multiple scholars have analyzed how ES are integrated with environmental policies, plans, and strategic assessments. However, there is a lack of information on how countries translate these policies, plans and assessments into concrete environmental management actions that integrate an explicit ES approach. To help fill this gap, we analyze how the Colombian Regional Autonomous Corporations (CARs) have used the ES approach in their environmental management projects implemented between 2004 and 2015. This study aims to analyze the type and diversity of ES managed by the CARs, as well as the synergies, trade-offs, and bundles of ES prioritized by them. We used content analysis of the CARs reports and statistical analysis to explore whether CARs explicitly use the ES concept. Our results showed that provisioning, regulating, and cultural ES were similarly prioritized by the CARs, however, explicit mention of ES was limited. Regulating services showed remarkable potential for synergies, and there was a pattern of trade-offs between cultural and some regulating and provisioning services. We found three bundles of ES: Restoration and conservation of agrosystems, Mosaic of services and Farming and fibers occupying, respectively, 9, 36 and 55% of the total area of Colombia. Our findings show that multiple ES are targeted and affected by environmental management actions. The contribution of this study has the potential to inform adequately policy decisions to be used in environmental management and planning practices to prioritize areas for maximizing ES provision.
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| 8. |
- Calderón-Contreras, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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A regional PECS node built from place-based social-ecological sustainability research in Latin America and the Caribbean
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ecosystems and People. - : Informa UK Limited. - 2639-5908 .- 2639-5916. ; 18:1, s. 1-14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sustainability requires a combination of meaningful co-production of locally relevant solutions, synthesis of insights gained across regions, and increased cooperation between science, policy and practice. The Programme for Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) has been coordinating Place-Based Social-Ecological Sustainability Research (PBSESR) across the globe and emphasizes the need for regional scientific nodes from diverse biocultural regions to inform sustainability science and action. In this paper, we assess the strengths of the PBSESR communities in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). We provide an overview of PBSESR literature associated with this region and highlight the achievements of two prominent regional networks: The Social-Ecological Systems and Sustainability Research Network from Mexico (SocioEcoS) and the South American Institute for Resilience and Sustainability Studies from Uruguay (SARAS Institute). Finally, we identify the potential in these nodes to constitute a regional PECS node in Latin America and discuss the capacity needed to ensure such function. The results of the literature review show that while still loosely interconnected across the region, networks play key roles in connecting otherwise cloistered teams and we illustrate how the SocioEcoS network (focusing on transdisciplinary co-production of knowledge towards sustainability) and the SARAS Institute (focusing on innovative approaches for looking at complex social-ecological problems, rooted in slow science and arts) operate as key connectors in the region. We conclude that these organizations combined can embody a Latin American node for PECS, and would thereby not only contribute to regional but also global capacities to advance the sustainability agenda.
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| 9. |
- Dade, M. C., et al.
(författare)
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Inequalities in the adaptive cycle : reorganizing after disasters in an unequal world
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 27:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Natural hazards can trigger disasters that lead to the collapse and reorganization of social-ecological systems. This reorganization can involve systems transitioning to more positive trajectories. The Panarchy framework, which conceptualizes social-ecological systems as dynamic interrelated adaptive cycles, is a common conceptual framework for understanding system reorganization. However, it is unclear how inequalities, social mechanisms known to influence disaster recovery outcomes, shape a system's adaptive cycle post-disaster. Understanding the roles of inequalities can help develop social-ecological models to identify processes that build resilience into disaster recovery. We applied the Panarchy framework to inform propositions describing how inequalities can influence the reorganization of social-ecological systems after disasters triggered by natural hazards. We qualitatively analyzed a selection of case studies that discussed inequalities pre-and post-disasters and related these to adaptive-cycle system characteristics (i.e., potential, connectedness, and resilience). We identified three propositions: 1) The ability of groups to reorganize after a disaster varies across the inequality spectrum; 2) The reorganizing abilities of groups across the inequality spectrum impact one another; and 3) The presence of inequalities affect connectedness within the system. Incorporating these propositions into social-ecological system modeling can improve our understanding of how inequalities impact system reorganization. This information can support disaster recovery plans that strengthen a system's ability to enter a more positive trajectory post-disaster.
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| 10. |
- Galaz, Victor, et al.
(författare)
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Financial influence on global risks of zoonotic emerging and re-emerging diseases : an integrative analysis
- 2023
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Ingår i: The Lancet Planetary Health. - 2542-5196. ; 7:12, s. e951-E962
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), such as Ebola virus disease and highly pathogenic influenza, are serious threats to human health and wellbeing worldwide. The financial sector has an important, yet often ignored, influence as owners and investors in industries that are associated with anthropogenic land-use changes in ecosystems linked to increased EIDs risks. We aimed to analyse financial influence associated with EIDs risks that are affected by anthropogenic land-use changes. We also aimed to provide empirical assessments of such influence to help guide engagements by governments, private organisations, and non-governmental organisations with the financial sector to advance a planetary health agenda.Methods: For this integrative analysis, we identified regions in the world where there was evidence of a connection between EIDs and anthropogenic land-use changes between Nov 9, 1999, and Oct 25, 2021, through a targeted literature review of academic literature and grey literature to identify evidence of drivers of anthropogenic land-use change and their association with commodity production in these regions. We only included publications in English that showed a connection between deforestation and the production of one or more commodities. Publications merely describing spatial or temporal land-use change dynamics (eg, a reduction of forest or an increase of palm-oil plantations) were excluded. As we were assessing financial influence on corporate activities through ownership specifically, we focused our analysis on publicly listed companies. Equity data and data about ownership structure were extracted from Orbis, a company information database. We assessed financial influence by identifying financial entities with the largest equity ownership, descriptively mapping transboundary connections between investors and publicly listed companies.Findings 227 public and private companies operating in five economic sectors (ie, production of palm oil, pulp and wood products, cocoa, soybeans, and beef) between Dec 15, 2020, and March 8, 2021, were identified. Of these 227, 99 (44%) were publicly listed companies, with 2310 unique shareholders. These publicly listed companies operated in six geographical regions, resulting in nine case-study regions. 54 (55%) companies with complete geographical information were included in the countries network. Four financial entities (ie, Dimensional, Vanguard, BlackRock, and Norway's sovereign wealth fund) each had ownership in 39 companies or more in three of the case-study regions (ie, north America, east Asia, and Europe). Four large US-based asset managers (ie, Vanguard, BlackRock, T Rowe Price, and State Street) were the largest owners of publicly listed companies in terms of total equity size, with ownership amounts for these four entities ranging from US$8 billion to $21 billion. The specific patterns of cross -national ownership depended on the region of interest; for example, financial influence on EIDs risks that was associated with commodity production in southeast and east Asia came from not only global asset managers but also Malaysian, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean financial entities. India, Brazil, the USA, Mexico, and Argentina were the countries towards which investments were most directed. Interpretation Although commodity supply chains and financial markets are highly globalised, a small number of investors and countries could be viewed as disproportionally influential in sectors that increase EIDs risks. Such financial influence could be used to develop and implement effective policies to reduce ecological degradation and mitigate EIDs risks and their effects on population health.
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| 11. |
- Gupta, Joyeeta, et al.
(författare)
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Earth system justice needed to identify and live within Earth system boundaries
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2398-9629. ; 6:6, s. 630-638
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Living within planetary limits requires attention to justice as biophysical boundaries are not inherently just. Through collaboration between natural and social scientists, the Earth Commission defines and operationalizes Earth system justice to ensure that boundaries reduce harm, increase well-being, and reflect substantive and procedural justice. Such stringent boundaries may also affect ‘just access’ to food, water, energy and infrastructure. We show how boundaries may need to be adjusted to reduce harm and increase access, and challenge inequality to ensure a safe and just future for people, other species and the planet. Earth system justice may enable living justly within boundaries.
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| 12. |
- Harper, Meagan, et al.
(författare)
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A multi-realm perspective on applying potential tipping points to environmental decision-making
- 2024
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Ingår i: Environmental Reviews. - 1181-8700 .- 1208-6053. ; 32, s. 131-144
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ecosystems experiencing pressures are at risk of rapidly transitioning (“tipping”) from one state to another. Identifying and managing these so-called tipping points continue to be a challenge in marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems, particularly when multiple potentially interacting drivers are present. Knowledge of tipping points, the mechanisms that cause them, and their implications for management practices are evolving, but often in isolation within specific ecological realms. Here, we summarize current knowledge of tipping points in marine, freshwater, and terrestrial realms and provide a multi-realm perspective of the challenges and opportunities for applying this knowledge to ecosystem management. We brought together conservation practitioners and global experts in marine, freshwater, and terrestrial tipping points and identified seven challenges that environmental policymakers and managers contend with including (1) predictability, (2) spatiotemporal scales, (3) interactions, (4) reversibility, (5) socio-ecological context, (6) complexity and heterogeneity, and (7) selecting appropriate action. We highlight opportunities for cross-scalar and cross-realm knowledge production and provide recommendations for enabling the management of tipping points. Although knowledge of tipping points is imperfect, we stress the need to continue working toward incorporating tipping points perspectives in environmental management across all realms.
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| 13. |
- Holme, Petter, et al.
(författare)
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Networks of climate change : connecting causes and consequences
- 2023
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Ingår i: Applied Network Science. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2364-8228. ; 8
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding the causes and consequences of, and devising countermeasures to, global warming is a profoundly complex problem. Network representations are sometimes the only way forward, and sometimes able to reduce the complexity of the original problem. Networks are both necessary and natural elements of climate science. Furthermore, networks form a mathematical foundation for a multitude of computational and analytical techniques. We are only beginning to see the benefits of this connection between the sciences of climate change and network science. In this review, we cover the wide spectrum of network applications in the climate-change literature—what they represent, how they are analyzed, and what insights they bring. We also discuss network data, tools, and problems yet to be explored.
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| 14. |
- Mohamed, Awaz, et al.
(författare)
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Securing Nature's Contributions to People requires at least 20%-25% (semi-)natural habitat in human-modified landscapes
- 2024
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Ingår i: One Earth. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 7:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The cascading effects of biodiversity decline on human well-being present a pressing challenge for sustainable development. Conservation efforts often prioritize safeguarding specific species, habitats, or intact ecosystems but overlook biodiversity's fundamental role in providing Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) in human -modified landscapes. Here, we systematically review 154 peer -reviewed studies to estimate the minimum levels of (semi -)natural habitat quantity, quality, and spatial configuration needed in human -modified landscapes to secure functional integrity essential for sustaining NCP provision. We find that the provision of multiple NCP is threatened when (semi -)natural habitat in the landscape falls below an area of 20%- 25% for each km2. Five NCP almost completely disappear below a level of 10% habitat. The exact quantity, quality, and spatial configuration of habitat required depends on local context and specific NCP. Today, about two-thirds of human -modified lands have insufficient (semi -)natural habitat, requiring action for NCP regeneration. Our findings serve as a generic guideline to target conservation actions outside natural areas.
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| 15. |
- Obura, David O., et al.
(författare)
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Achieving a nature- and people-positive future
- 2023
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Ingår i: One Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 6:2, s. 105-117
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite decades of increasing investment in conservation, we have not succeeded in “bending the curve” of biodiversity decline. Efforts to meet new targets and goals for the next three decades risk repeating this outcome due to three factors: neglect of increasing drivers of decline; unrealistic expectations and time frames of biodiversity recovery; and insufficient attention to justice within and between generations and across countries. Our Earth system justice approach identifies six sets of actions that when tackled simultaneously address these failings: (1) reduce and reverse direct and indirect drivers causing decline; (2) halt and reverse biodiversity loss; (3) restore and regenerate biodiversity to a safe state; (4) raise minimum wellbeing for all; (5) eliminate over-consumption and excesses associated with accumulation of capital; and (6) uphold and respect the rights and responsibilities of all communities, present and future. Current conservation campaigns primarily address actions 2 and 3, with urgent upscaling of actions 1, 4, 5, and 6 needed to help deliver the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.
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| 16. |
- Pereira, Laura M., 1985-, et al.
(författare)
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Equity and justice should underpin the discourse on tipping points
- 2024
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Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 15:2, s. 341-366
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Radical and quick transformations towards sustainability will be fundamental to achieving a more sustainable future. However, deliberate interventions to reconfigure systems will result in winners and losers, with the potential for greater or lesser equity and justice outcomes. Positive tipping points (PTPs) have been proposed as interventions in complex systems with the aim to (a) reduce the likelihood of negative Earth system tipping points and/or (b) increase the likelihood of achieving just social foundations. However, many narratives around PTPs often do not take into account the entire spectrum of impacts the proposed alternatives could have or still rely on narratives that maintain current unsustainable behaviours and marginalize many people (i.e. do not take “b” into account). One such example is the move from petrol-based to electric vehicles. An energy transition that remains based on natural resource inputs from the Global South must be unpacked with an equity and justice lens to understand the true cost of this transition. There are two arguments why a critical engagement with these and other similar proposals needs to be made. First, the idea of transitioning through a substitution (e.g. of fuel) while maintaining the system structure (e.g. of private vehicles) may not necessarily be conceived as the kind of radical transformation being called for by global scientific bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Second, and probably more importantly, the question of positive for whom, positive where, and positive how must be considered. In this paper, we unpack these narratives using a critical decolonial view from the south and outline their implications for the concept of tipping points.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Rocha, Juan Carlos, 1984-, et al.
(författare)
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Detecting potential impacts on ecosystem services related to ecological regime shifts – a matter of wording
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Assessing which ecosystem services are likely to be affected by ecological regime shifts is one of the greatest challenges of current ecological research. Regime shifts are large, abrupt re-configuration of ecosystem’s structure and function; they are hard to predict, often difficult to reverse, and present potential changes on the benefits people receive from natural systems impacting human well-being. While a bulk of research comprises localized case studies where data is available and experimentation is possible, a global assessment of regime shifts consequences is missing. Here topic mining is presented as a complementary strategy to assess changes in ecosystem services at broader time and spatial scale than direct assessments. We explore an indirect approach by using latent Dirichlet allocation to automatically identify topics that align with ecosystem services, and compared it with the impacts reported by contributors to the Regime Shifts Database. We found that identifying ecosystem services is possible, successful detection is correlated to how well studied regime shifts are. While the majority of supporting and regulating services were successfully detected, pollination and cultural services were elusive. The technique provides a new indirect monitoring method for places where current data is scarce or data collection is challenging.
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| 19. |
- Rocha, Juan Carlos, 1984-, et al.
(författare)
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Global Change Drivers of Regime Shifts
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Abrupt ecological changes or regime shifts have been identified in many ecosystems, but there has been no systemic review to compare regime shifts and their drivers. We use network analysis to perform a comparative analysis of relationships among global change drivers and major ecological regime shifts. We assembled a database of 20 regime shifts and their drivers that spans marine, terrestrial and polar ecosystems. Our analysis reveals that regime shifts typically have multiple drivers (ranging from 2 to 19 in our dataset) that interact in a structured fashion: only 11 drivers cause from 25-60% of the regime shifts and interact with 50-85% of other drivers. Of the 55 drivers recorded, 11 drivers cause 25-60% of the regime shifts and interact with 50-85% of other drivers. Drivers related to agricultural activities and climate change are the most frequent drivers of regime shifts. Although equally important, indirect drivers seem to be underreported. We find that regime shifts in marine systems operate at similar scales due to similar feedback processes, while terrestrial regime shifts occur across a wider range of scales and are more context dependent. Regime shifts differ greatly in the scales at which their drivers can be managed, but most regime shifts are at least partially driven by global change drivers which cannot be managed locally, highlighting the importance of new scale-bridging polycentric approaches to avoid unwanted regime shifts.
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| 20. |
- Rocha, Juan C., 1984-, et al.
(författare)
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Panarchy : ripples of a boundary concept
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 27:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How do social-ecological systems change over time? In 2002 C. S. Holling and colleagues proposed the concept of panarchy, which presented social-ecological systems as an interacting set of adaptive cycles, each produced by the dynamic tensions between novelty and efficiency at multiple scales. Initially introduced as a conceptual framework and set of metaphors, panarchy has gained the attention of scholars across many disciplines, and its ideas continue to inspire further conceptual developments. Almost 20 years after this concept was introduced, we reviewed how it has been used, tested, extended, and revised, through the combination of qualitative methods and machine learning. Document analysis was used to code panarchy features common to the scientific literature (N = 42), a qualitative analysis that was complemented with topic modeling of 2177 documents. We found that the adaptive cycle is the feature of panarchy that has attracted the most attention. Challenges remain in empirically grounding the metaphor, but recent theoretical and empirical work offer some avenues for future research.
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| 21. |
- Rocha, Juan Carlos, 1984-
(författare)
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Regime Shifts : Doctoral Essay
- 2011
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Ingår i: Wikipedia.
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Bokkapitel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Regime shifts are large, abrupt, persistent changes in the structure and function of a system(Biggs et al. 2009). A regime is a characteristic behavior of a system which is maintained bymutually reinforced processes or feedbacks. Regimes are considered persistent relative to thetime period over which the shift occurs. The change of regimes, or a regime shift, usually occurswhen a gradual change in an internal process (feedback) or a single disturbance (externalshocks) triggers a completely different system behavior (Scheffer et al. 2001, Beisner et al.2003, Scheffer and Carpenter 2003, Folke et al. 2004). Although such non-linear change havebeen widely studied in different disciplines ranging from atoms to climate dynamics(Feudel2008); regime shifts have gained importance in ecology because they can substantially alter theflow of ecosystem services to societies (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005, Biggs et al.2009); such as provision of food, clean water or climate regulation. Moreover, the frequency ofregime shifts is expected to increase as human domination on the Earth’s processes continuesto expand -the anthropocene-, modifying climate, biogeochemical cycles, land cover, andspecies distribution (Steffen et al. 2007, Rockström et al. 2009).
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| 22. |
- Rocha, Juan Carlos, 1984-
(författare)
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Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene
- 2013
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Regime shifts are large, abrupt and often hard to reverse changes in the function and structure of socal-ecological systems. These regime shifts have been documented in a broad range of systems and scales both in marine, terrestrial and polar ecosystems. Regime shifts have attracted the attention of scientists, managers and policy makers because they substantially affect the flow of ecosystem services that society relies on. Despite their re|evance in the face of climate change or increasing pressure of the anthropocene, little is understood about the overall patterns of regime shifts causation and impacts for human well being. This licentiate thesis summarises the first steps towards a global assessment of regime shifts. Paper I is a literature review that attempts to synthesise the state of the art of regime shifts theory, its application in different disciplines, and frontiers of research. Paper II outlines a framework developed to study and compare regime shifts across different systems and scales, namely the Regime Shifts Database. Paper III investigates the patterns of drivers co-occurrence, and outlines the opportunities and challenges for management of regime shifts. The three papers together propose a new approach to study regime shifts that combines system thinking and tools from network science to analyze phenomena where knowledge about causal mechanisms, opportunities for experimentation and time series data are limited or unavailable. The discussion reflects upon the limitation and opportunities of our approach and outlines the guidelines for future developments of my PhD project.
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| 23. |
- Rocha, Juan Carlos, 1984-, et al.
(författare)
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Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene : drivers, risk, and resilience
- 2024
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Human action is driving worldwide change in ecosystems. While some of these changes have been gradual, others have led to surprising, large and persistent ecological regime shifts 1-4. Such shifts challenge ecological management and governance because they substantially alter the availability of ecosystems services 5, while being difficult to predict 6 and reverse2. Assessing whether continued global change will lead to further regime shifts, or has the potential trigger cascading regime shifts has been a central question in global change policy 7-9. Addressing this issue has, however, been hampered by the focus of regime shift research on specific cases or types of regime shifts 9-11. To systematically assess the global risk of regime shifts we conducted a comparative analysis of 25 types of regime shifts across marine, terrestrial and polar systems; identifying their drivers, and impacts on ecosystem services. We demonstrate that the drivers of regime shifts are diverse and widely shared among regime shifts, which suggests that continued global change can be expected to synchronously increase the risk of multiple regime shifts. Furthermore, many regime shift drivers are related to climate change and food production, whose tight links to the continued expansion of human activities makes them difficult to limit. Because many regime shifts can amplify the drivers of other regime shifts, continued global change can also be expected to increase the risk of cascading regime shifts 8,12. Nevertheless, the variety of scales at which regime shift drivers operate provides opportunities for reducing the risk of many types of regime shifts by addressing local or regional drivers, even in the absence of rapid reduction of global drivers.
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| 24. |
- Rocha, Juan Carlos, 1984-
(författare)
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Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene
- 2015
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Abrupt and persistent reconfiguration of ecosystem’s structure and function has been observed on a wide variety of ecosystems worldwide. While scientist believe that such phenomena could become more common and severe in the near future, little is known about the patterns of regime shifts’ causes and consequences for human well-being. This thesis aims to assess global patterns of regime shifts in social-ecological systems. A framework for comparing regime shifts has been developed as well as a public forum for discussing knowledge about regime shifts, namely the regime shift database. The most common drivers and expected impacts on ecosystem services have been identified by studying the qualitative topology of causal networks as well as the statistical properties that explain their emergent patters. Given that long time series data for ecosystems monitoring is rather sparse, and experimenting with ecosystems at the scales required to understand their feedback dynamics is rarely an option; we also proposed an indirect computationally based method for monitoring changes in ecosystem services. I hope the results here presented offer useful guidance for managers and policy makers on how to prioritize drivers or impacts of regime shifts: one take home message is that well-understood variables are not necessary the ones where most managerial efforts need to be taken. I also hope the scientific community rigorously criticize our results, but also acknowledge that when doing theoretical or empirical work, our methods tend to ignore the multi-causal nature of regime shifts. By bringing back multi-causality to the scientific debate, I hope our results offer new avenues for hypothesis exploration and theory development on the human endeavour of understanding Nature.
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| 25. |
- Rocha, Juan, 1984-
(författare)
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Ecosystems are showing symptoms of resilience loss
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 17:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ecosystems around the world are at risk of critical transitions due to increasing anthropogenic pressures and climate change. Yet it is unclear where the risks are higher or where in the world ecosystems are more vulnerable. Here I measure resilience of primary productivity proxies for marine and terrestrial ecosystems globally. Up to 29% of global terrestrial ecosystem, and 24% marine ones, show symptoms of resilience loss. These symptoms are shown in all biomes, but Arctic tundra and boreal forest are the most affected, as well as the Indian Ocean and Eastern Pacific. Although the results are likely an underestimation, they enable the identification of risk areas as well as the potential synchrony of some transitions, helping prioritize areas for management interventions and conservation.
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| 26. |
- Rockström, Johan, 1965-, et al.
(författare)
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Safe and just Earth system boundaries
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 619:7968, s. 102-111
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice). The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.
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| 27. |
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| 28. |
- Stewart-Koster, Ben, et al.
(författare)
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Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - 2398-9629. ; 7:1, s. 53-63
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for surface water and groundwater (blue water) have been defined for sustainable water management in the Anthropocene. Here we assessed whether minimum human needs could be met with surface water from within individual river basins alone and, where this is not possible, quantified how much groundwater would be required. Approximately 2.6 billion people live in river basins where groundwater is needed because they are already outside the surface water ESB or have insufficient surface water to meet human needs and the ESB. Approximately 1.4 billion people live in river basins where demand-side transformations would be required as they either exceed the surface water ESB or face a decline in groundwater recharge and cannot meet minimum needs within the ESB. A further 1.5 billion people live in river basins outside the ESB, with insufficient surface water to meet minimum needs, requiring both supply- and demand-side transformations. These results highlight the challenges and opportunities of meeting even basic human access needs to water and protecting aquatic ecosystems.
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| 29. |
- Wunderling, Nico, 1992-, et al.
(författare)
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Climate tipping point interactions and cascades : a review
- 2024
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Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 15:1, s. 41-74
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 ∘C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge.
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| 30. |
- Österblom, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Scientific mobilization of keystone actors for biosphere stewardship
- 2022
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The biosphere crisis requires changes to existing business practices. We ask how corporations can become sustainability leaders, when constrained by multiple barriers to collaboration for biosphere stewardship. We describe how scientists motivated, inspired and engaged with ten of the world’s largest seafood companies, in a collaborative process aimed to enable science-based and systemic transformations (2015–2021). CEOs faced multiple industry crises in 2015 that incentivized novel approaches. New scientific insights, an invitation to collaborate, and a bold vision of transformative change towards ocean stewardship, created new opportunities and direction. Co-creation of solutions resulted in new knowledge and trust, a joint agenda for action, new capacities, international recognition, formalization of an organization, increased policy influence, time-bound goals, and convergence of corporate change. Independently funded scientists helped remove barriers to cooperation, provided means for reflection, and guided corporate strategies and actions toward ocean stewardship. By 2021, multiple individuals exercised leadership and the initiative had transitioned from preliminary and uncomfortable conversations, to a dynamic, operational organization, with capacity to perform global leadership in the seafood industry. Mobilizing transformational agency through learning, collaboration, and innovation represents a cultural evolution with potential to redirect and accelerate corporate action, to the benefit of business, people and the planet.
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