| 1. |
- Pihl, E., et al.
(författare)
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Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - : Cambridge University Press. - 2059-4798.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost-benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- A nd long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.
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| 2. |
- Hansen, James, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing Dangerous Climate Change : Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature
- 2013
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 8:12, s. e81648-
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of similar to 500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of similar to 1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 degrees C global warming, would spur slow feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 degrees C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Rockström, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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A safe operating space for humanity
- 2013
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Ingår i: The Future of Nature. - : Yale University Press. - 9780300184617 ; , s. 491-501
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Springmann, Marco, et al.
(författare)
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Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 562:7728, s. 519-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The food system is a major driver of climate change, changes in land use, depletion of freshwater resources, and pollution of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems through excessive nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. Here we show that between 2010 and 2050, as a result of expected changes in population and income levels, the environmental effects of the food system could increase by 50-90% in the absence of technological changes and dedicated mitigation measures, reaching levels that are beyond the planetary boundaries that define a safe operating space for humanity. We analyse several options for reducing the environmental effects of the food system, including dietary changes towards healthier, more plant-based diets, improvements in technologies and management, and reductions in food loss and waste. We find that no single measure is enough to keep these effects within all planetary boundaries simultaneously, and that a synergistic combination of measures will be needed to sufficiently mitigate the projected increase in environmental pressures.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Gleeson, Tom, et al.
(författare)
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Illuminating water cycle modifications and Earth system resilience in the Anthropocene
- 2020
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Ingår i: Water resources research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 56:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fresh water—the bloodstream of the biosphere—is at the center of the planetary drama of the Anthropocene. Water fluxes and stores regulate the Earth's climate and are essential for thriving aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, as well as water, food, and energy security. But the water cycle is also being modified by humans at an unprecedented scale and rate. A holistic understanding of freshwater's role for Earth system resilience and the detection and monitoring of anthropogenic water cycle modifications across scales is urgent, yet existing methods and frameworks are not well suited for this. In this paper we highlight four core Earth system functions of water (hydroclimatic regulation, hydroecological regulation, storage, and transport) and key related processes. Building on systems and resilience theory, we review the evidence of regional‐scale regime shifts and disruptions of the Earth system functions of water. We then propose a framework for detecting, monitoring, and establishing safe limits to water cycle modifications and identify four possible spatially explicit methods for their quantification. In sum, this paper presents an ambitious scientific and policy grand challenge that could substantially improve our understanding of the role of water in the Earth system and cross‐scale management of water cycle modifications that would be a complementary approach to existing water management tools.
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| 11. |
- Gordon, Line J., et al.
(författare)
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Rewiring food systems to enhance human health and biosphere stewardship
- 2017
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 12:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Food lies at the heart of both health and sustainability challenges. We use a social-ecological framework to illustrate how major changes to the volume, nutrition and safety of food systems between 1961 and today impact health and sustainability. These changes have almost halved undernutrition while doubling the proportion who are overweight. They have also resulted in reduced resilience of the biosphere, pushing four out of six analysed planetary boundaries across the safe operating space of the biosphere. Our analysis further illustrates that consumers and producers have become more distant from one another, with substantial power consolidated within a small group of key actors. Solutions include a shift from a volume-focused production system to focus on quality, nutrition, resource use efficiency, and reduced antimicrobial use. To achieve this, we need to rewire food systems in ways that enhance transparency between producers and consumers, mobilize key actors to become biosphere stewards, and re-connect people to the biosphere.
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| 12. |
- Gupta, Joyeeta, et al.
(författare)
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Earth system justice needed to identify and live within Earth system boundaries
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2398-9629. ; 6:6, s. 630-638
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Living within planetary limits requires attention to justice as biophysical boundaries are not inherently just. Through collaboration between natural and social scientists, the Earth Commission defines and operationalizes Earth system justice to ensure that boundaries reduce harm, increase well-being, and reflect substantive and procedural justice. Such stringent boundaries may also affect ‘just access’ to food, water, energy and infrastructure. We show how boundaries may need to be adjusted to reduce harm and increase access, and challenge inequality to ensure a safe and just future for people, other species and the planet. Earth system justice may enable living justly within boundaries.
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| 13. |
- Jägermeyr, J., et al.
(författare)
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Integrated crop water management might sustainably halve the global food gap
- 2016
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As planetary boundaries are rapidly being approached, humanity has little room for additional expansion and conventional intensification of agriculture, while a growing world population further spreads the food gap. Ample evidence exists that improved on-farm water management can close water-related yield gaps to a considerable degree, but its global significance remains unclear. In this modeling study we investigate systematically to what extent integrated crop water management might contribute to closing the global food gap, constrained by the assumption that pressure on water resources and land does not increase. Using a process-based bio-/agrosphere model, we simulate the yield-increasing potential of elevated irrigation water productivity (including irrigation expansion with thus saved water) and optimized use of in situ precipitation water (alleviated soil evaporation, enhanced infiltration, water harvesting for supplemental irrigation) under current and projected future climate (from 20 climate models, with and without beneficial CO2 effects). Results show that irrigation efficiency improvements can save substantial amounts of water in many river basins (globally 48% of non-productive water consumption in an 'ambitious' scenario), and if rerouted to irrigate neighboring rainfed systems, can boost kcal production significantly (26% global increase). Low-tech solutions for small-scale farmers on water-limited croplands show the potential to increase rainfed yields to a similar extent. In combination, the ambitious yet achievable integrated water management strategies explored in this study could increase global production by 41% and close the water-related yield gap by 62%. Unabated climate change will have adverse effects on crop yields in many regions, but improvements in water management as analyzed here can buffer such effects to a significant degree.
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Vanham, D., et al.
(författare)
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Physical water scarcity metrics for monitoring progress towards SDG target 6.4 : An evaluation of indicator 6.4.2 Level of water stress
- 2018
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 613, s. 218-232
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Target 6.4 of the recently adopted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) deals with the reduction of water scarcity. To monitor progress towards this target, two indicators are used: Indicator 6.4.1 measuring water use efficiency and 6.4.2 measuring the level of water stress (WS). This paper aims to identify whether the currently proposed indicator 6.4.2 considers the different elements that need to be accounted for in a WS indicator. WS indicators compare water use with water availability. We identify seven essential elements: 1) both gross and net water abstraction (or withdrawal) provide important information to understand WS; 2) WS indicators need to incorporate environmental flow requirements (EFR); 3) temporal and 4) spatial disaggregation is required in a WS assessment; 5) both renewable surface water and groundwater resources, including their interaction, need to be accounted for as renewable water availability; 6) alternative available water resources need to be accounted for as well, like fossil groundwater and desalinated water; 7) WS indicators need to account for water storage in reservoirs, water recycling and managed aquifer recharge. Indicator 6.4.2 considers many of these elements, but there is need for improvement. It is recommended that WS is measured based on net abstraction as well, in addition to currently only measuring WS based on gross abstraction. It does incorporate EFR. Temporal and spatial disaggregation is indeed defined as a goal in more advanced monitoring levels, in which it is also called for a differentiation between surface and groundwater resources. However, regarding element 6 and 7 there are some shortcomings for which we provide recommendations. In addition, indicator 6.4.2 is only one indicator, which monitors blue WS, but does not give information on green or green-blue water scarcity or on water quality. Within the SDG indicator framework, some of these topics are covered with other indicators.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Anderies, J. M., et al.
(författare)
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The topology of non-linear global carbon dynamics : from tipping points to planetary boundaries
- 2013
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 8:4, s. 044048-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a minimal model of land use and carbon cycle dynamics and use it to explore the relationship between non-linear dynamics and planetary boundaries. Only the most basic interactions between land cover and terrestrial, atmospheric, and marine carbon stocks are considered in the model. Our goal is not to predict global carbon dynamics as it occurs in the actual Earth System. Rather, we construct a conceptually reasonable heuristic model of a feedback system between different carbon stocks that captures the qualitative features of the actual Earth System and use it to explore the topology of the boundaries of what can be called a 'safe operating space' for humans. The model analysis illustrates the existence of dynamic, non-linear tipping points in carbon cycle dynamics and the potential complexity of planetary boundaries. Finally, we use the model to illustrate some challenges associated with navigating planetary boundaries.
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| 19. |
- Andersson, Jafet C. M., et al.
(författare)
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Potential impacts of water harvesting and ecological sanitation on crop yield, evaporation and river flow regimes in the Thukela River basin, South Africa
- 2011
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Ingår i: Agricultural Water Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0378-3774 .- 1873-2283. ; 98:7, s. 1113-1124
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study we explore the potential impacts of two strategies, namely in situ water harvesting (in situ WH) and fertilisation with stored human urine (Ecosan), to increase the water and nutrient availability in rain-fed smallholder agriculture in South Africa's Thukela River basin (29,000 km(2)). We use the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to simulate potential impacts on smallholder maize yields, river flow regimes, plant transpiration, and soil and canopy evaporation during 1997-2006. Based on the results, the impacts on maize yields are likely to be small with in situ WH (median change: 0%) but significant with Ecosan (median increase: 30%). The primary causes for these effects are high nitrogen stress on crop growth, and low or untimed soil moisture enhancement with in situ WH. However, the impacts vary significantly in time and space, occasionally resulting in yield increases of up to 40% with in situ WH. Soil fertility improvements primarily increase yield magnitudes, whereas soil moisture enhancements reduce spatial yield variability. Ecosan significantly improves the productivity of the evaporative fluxes by increasing transpiration (median: 2.8%, 4.7 mm season(-1)) and reducing soil and canopy evaporation (median: -1.7%, -4.5 mm season(-1)). In situ WH does not generally affect the river flow regimes. Occasionally, significant regime changes occur due to enhanced lateral and shallow aquifer return flows. This leads to higher risks of flooding in some areas, but also to enhanced low flows, which help sustain aquatic ecosystems in the basin.
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| 20. |
- Bai, Xuemei, et al.
(författare)
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Translating Earth system boundaries for cities and businesses
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - 2398-9629. ; 7, s. 108-119
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Operating within safe and just Earth system boundaries requires mobilizing key actors across scale to set targets and take actions accordingly. Robust, transparent and fair cross-scale translation methods are essential to help navigate through the multiple steps of scientific and normative judgements in translation, with clear awareness of associated assumptions, bias and uncertainties. Here, through literature review and expert elicitation, we identify commonly used sharing approaches, illustrate ten principles of translation and present a protocol involving key building blocks and control steps in translation. We pay particular attention to businesses and cities, two understudied but critical actors to bring on board.
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| 21. |
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| 22. |
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| 23. |
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| 24. |
- Bennett, Elena, et al.
(författare)
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Toward a more resilient agriculture
- 2014
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Ingår i: Solutions : For a Sustainable & Desirable Future. - : Australian National University. - 2154-0926. ; 5:5, s. 65-75
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In Brief Agriculture is a key driver of change in the Anthropocene. It is both a critical factor for human well-being and development and a major driver of environmental decline. As the human population expands to more than 9 billion by 2050, we will be compelled to find ways to adequately feed this population while simultaneously decreasing the environmental impact of agriculture, even as global change is creating new circumstances to which agriculture must respond. Many proposals to accomplish this dual goal of increasing agricultural production while reducing its environmental impact are based on increasing the efficiency of agricultural production relative to resource use and relative to unintended outcomes such as water pollution, biodiversity loss, and greenhouse gas emissions. While increasing production efficiency is almost certainly necessary, it is unlikely to be sufficient and may in some instances reduce long-term agricultural resilience, for example, by degrading soil and increasing the fragility of agriculture to pest and disease outbreaks and climate shocks. To encourage an agriculture that is both resilient and sustainable, radically new approaches to agricultural development are needed. These approaches must build on a diversity of solutions operating at nested scales, and they must maintain and enhance the adaptive and transformative capacity needed to respond to disturbances and avoid critical thresholds. Finding such approaches will require that we encourage experimentation, innovation, and learning, even if they sometimes reduce short-term production efficiency in some parts of the world.
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| 25. |
- Clift, Roland, et al.
(författare)
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The Challenges of Applying Planetary Boundaries as a Basis for Strategic Decision-Making in Companies with Global Supply Chains
- 2017
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 9:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Planetary Boundaries (PB) framework represents a significant advance in specifying the ecological constraints on human development. However, to enable decision-makers in business and public policy to respect these constraints in strategic planning, the PB framework needs to be developed to generate practical tools. With this objective in mind, we analyse the recent literature and highlight three major scientific and technical challenges in operationalizing the PB approach in decision-making: first, identification of thresholds or boundaries with associated metrics for different geographical scales; second, the need to frame approaches to allocate fair shares in the 'safe operating space' bounded by the PBs across the value chain and; third, the need for international bodies to co-ordinate the implementation of the measures needed to respect the Planetary Boundaries. For the first two of these challenges, we consider how they might be addressed for four PBs: climate change, freshwater use, biosphere integrity and chemical pollution and other novel entities. Four key opportunities are identified: (1) development of a common system of metrics that can be applied consistently at and across different scales; (2) setting 'distance from boundary' measures that can be applied at different scales; (3) development of global, preferably open-source, databases and models; and (4) advancing understanding of the interactions between the different PBs. Addressing the scientific and technical challenges in operationalizing the planetary boundaries needs be complemented with progress in addressing the equity and ethical issues in allocating the safe operating space between companies and sectors.
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| 26. |
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| 27. |
- Dent, David, et al.
(författare)
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Land
- 2007
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Ingår i: Global Environmental Outlook 4. - 9789280728361 ; , s. 81-114
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 28. |
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| 29. |
- Folke, Carl, et al.
(författare)
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Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere
- 2021
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 50:4, s. 834-869
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality-of rising system-wide turbulence-calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations.
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| 30. |
- Guerry, Anne D., et al.
(författare)
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Natural capital and ecosystem services informing decisions : From promise to practice
- 2015
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 112:24, s. 7348-7355
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The central challenge of the 21st century is to develop economic, social, and governance systems capable of ending poverty and achieving sustainable levels of population and consumption while securing the life-support systems underpinning current and future human well-being. Essential to meeting this challenge is the incorporation of natural capital and the ecosystem services it provides into decision-making. We explore progress and crucial gaps at this frontier, reflecting upon the 10 y since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. We focus on three key dimensions of progress and ongoing challenges: raising awareness of the interdependence of ecosystems and human well-being, advancing the fundamental interdisciplinary science of ecosystem services, and implementing this science in decisions to restore natural capital and use it sustainably. Awareness of human dependence on nature is at an all-time high, the science of ecosystem services is rapidly advancing, and talk of natural capital is now common from governments to corporate boardrooms. However, successful implementation is still in early stages. We explore why ecosystem service information has yet to fundamentally change decision-making and suggest a path forward that emphasizes: (i) developing solid evidence linking decisions to impacts on natural capital and ecosystem services, and then to human well-being; (ii) working closely with leaders in government, business, and civil society to develop the knowledge, tools, and practices necessary to integrate natural capital and ecosystem services into everyday decision-making; and (iii) reforming institutions to change policy and practices to better align private short-term goals with societal long-term goals.
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| 31. |
- Karlberg, L, et al.
(författare)
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Global Freshwater Resources
- 2009
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Ingår i: Fisheries, Sustainability and Development. - Stockholm : Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry. ; , s. 123-132, s. 123-132
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 32. |
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| 33. |
- Karlberg, Louise, et al.
(författare)
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Low-cost drip irrigation of tomatoes using saline water: a suitable technology for southern Africa?
- 2007
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Ingår i: Agricultural Water Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0378-3774 .- 1873-2283. ; 89:1-2, s. 59-70
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using saline water for. irrigation increases water productivity by freeing up fresh water that can be allocated to domestic or other uses. Drip irrigation is widely regarded as the most promising irrigation system in combination with saline water. Simple drip irrigation kits that are affordable for smallholder farmers have successfully been implemented for irrigation of vegetable gardens in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The possibility of using low-cost drip irrigation with saline water to successfully irrigate a common garden crop, tomatoes, was tested in this study. Two low-cost drip irrigation systems with different emitter discharge rates (0.2 and 2.5 1 h(-2)) were used to irrigate tomatoes (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill. cv. "Daniella") with water of three different salinity levels (0, 3 and 6 dS m(-1)). In addition, plastic mulch to minimise soil evaporation was also compared to a "bare soil" or uncovered treatment. Two consecutive tomato crops (spring and autumn) were produced during two growing seasons, starting from September 2003 and ending in April 2004, at the Hatfield Experimental Farm in Pretoria, South Africa. An average yield of 75 Mg ha(-1) was recorded for all treatments and seasons, which can be compared with the average marketable yield for South Africa of approximately 31.4 Mg ha(-1). Even at the highest irrigation water salinity (6 dS m(-1)), a yield above the average marketable yield was achieved, indicating that low-cost drip irrigation works well in combination with saline water. Furthermore, the study showed that the choice of drip irrigation system with regard to discharge rate is of minor importance when irrigating with saline water. However, combining low-cost drip irrigation with plastic mulch increased the yield by on average 10 Mg ha(-1) for all treatments. For the bare soil treatments, rainfall had an important role in the leaching of salts from the soils. Finally, the study showed that specific leaf area was higher at high irrigation water salinities, which is contrary to results from other studies. To be able to generalise the promising findings from this study, there is a need to mechanistically model the impact of different climates, soils and irrigation management practices, as well as the long-term sustainability of these systems.
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| 34. |
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| 35. |
- Lade, Steven J., et al.
(författare)
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Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing
- 2018
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Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 9:2, s. 507-523
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth system's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth system models. Here, we construct a stylised global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against comprehensive Earth system models, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. Specific results include that different feedback formalisms measure fundamentally the same climate-carbon cycle processes; temperature dependence of the solubility pump, biological pump, and CO2 solubility all contribute approximately equally to the ocean climate-carbon feedback; and concentration-carbon feedbacks may be more sensitive to future climate change than climate-carbon feedbacks. Simple models such as that developed here also provide workbenches for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the planetary boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in comprehensive Earth system models.
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| 36. |
- Lade, Steven J., et al.
(författare)
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Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2398-9629. ; 3:2, s. 119-128
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The planetary boundary framework presents a ‘planetary dashboard’ of humanity’s globally aggregated performance on a set of environmental issues that endanger the Earth system’s capacity to support humanity. While this framework has been highly influential, a critical shortcoming for its application in sustainability governance is that it currently fails to represent how impacts related to one of the planetary boundaries affect the status of other planetary boundaries. Here, we surveyed and provisionally quantified interactions between the Earth system processes represented by the planetary boundaries and investigated their consequences for sustainability governance. We identified a dense network of interactions between the planetary boundaries. The resulting cascades and feedbacks predominantly amplify human impacts on the Earth system and thereby shrink the safe operating space for future human impacts on the Earth system. Our results show that an integrated understanding of Earth system dynamics is critical to navigating towards a sustainable future.
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| 37. |
- Martin, Maria A., et al.
(författare)
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Ten new insights in climate science 2021 : a horizon scan
- 2021
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Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 2059-4798. ; 4, s. 1-20
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Non-technical summary: We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.Technical summary: A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature.Social media summary: How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.
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| 38. |
- Otto, Ilona M., et al.
(författare)
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Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth's climate by 2050
- 2020
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : The National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 117:5, s. 2354-2365
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth's climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STE5). STE5 are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation.
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| 39. |
- Porkka, Miina, et al.
(författare)
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Is wetter better? Exploring agriculturally-relevant rainfall characteristics over four decades in the Sahel
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 16:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The semi-arid Sahel is a global hotspot for poverty and malnutrition. Rainfed agriculture is the main source of food and income, making the well-being of rural population highly sensitive to rainfall variability. Studies have reported an upward trend in annual precipitation in the Sahel since the drought of the 1970s and early '80s, yet farmers have questioned improvements in conditions for agriculture, suggesting that intraseasonal dynamics play a crucial role. Using high-resolution daily precipitation data spanning 1981-2017 and focusing on agriculturally-relevant areas of the Sahel, we re-examined the extent of rainfall increase and investigated whether the increases have been accompanied by changes in two aspects of intraseasonal variability that have relevance for agriculture: rainy season duration and occurrence of prolonged dry spells during vulnerable crop growth stages. We found that annual rainfall increased across 56% of the region, but remained largely the same elsewhere. Rainy season duration increased almost exclusively in areas with upward trends in annual precipitation (23% of them). Association between annual rain and dry spell occurrence was less clear: increasing and decreasing frequencies of false starts (dry spells after first rains) and post-floral dry spells (towards the end of the season) were found to almost equal extent both in areas with positive and those with no significant trend in annual precipitation. Overall, improvements in at least two of the three intraseasonal variables (and no declines in any) were found in 10% of the region, while over a half of the area experienced declines in at least one intraseasonal variable, or no improvement in any. We conclude that rainfall conditions for agriculture have improved overall only in scattered areas across the Sahel since the 1980s, and increased annual rainfall is only weakly, if at all, associated with changes in the agriculturally-relevant intraseasonal rainfall characteristics.
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| 40. |
- Pretty, Jules, et al.
(författare)
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Global assessment of agricultural system redesign for sustainable intensification
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2398-9629. ; 1:8, s. 441-446
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The sustainable intensification of agricultural systems offers synergistic opportunities for the co-production of agricultural and natural capital outcomes. Efficiency and substitution are steps towards sustainable intensification, but system redesign is essential to deliver optimum outcomes as ecological and economic conditions change. We show global progress towards sustainable intensification by farms and hectares, using seven sustainable intensification sub-types: integrated pest management, conservation agriculture, integrated crop and biodiversity, pasture and forage, trees, irrigation management and small or patch systems. From 47 sustainable intensification initiatives at scale (each > 10(4) farms or hectares), we estimate 163 million farms (29% of all worldwide) have crossed a redesign threshold, practising forms of sustainable intensification on 453 Mha of agricultural land (9% of worldwide total). Key challenges include investment to integrate more forms of sustainable intensification in farming systems, creating agricultural knowledge economies and establishing policy measures to scale sustainable intensification further. We conclude that sustainable intensification may be approaching a tipping point where it could be transformative.
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| 41. |
- Rammelt, Crelis F., et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of meeting minimum access on critical earth systems amidst the Great Inequality
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2398-9629. ; 6:2, s. 212-221
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Sustainable Development Goals aim to improve access to resources and services, reduce environmental degradation, eradicate poverty and reduce inequality. However, the magnitude of the environmental burden that would arise from meeting the needs of the poorest is under debate—especially when compared to much larger burdens from the rich. We show that the ‘Great Acceleration’ of human impacts was characterized by a ‘Great Inequality’ in using and damaging the environment. We then operationalize ‘just access’ to minimum energy, water, food and infrastructure. We show that achieving just access in 2018, with existing inequalities, technologies and behaviours, would have produced 2–26% additional impacts on the Earth’s natural systems of climate, water, land and nutrients—thus further crossing planetary boundaries. These hypothetical impacts, caused by about a third of humanity, equalled those caused by the wealthiest 1–4%. Technological and behavioural changes thus far, while important, did not deliver just access within a stable Earth system. Achieving these goals therefore calls for a radical redistribution of resources.
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| 42. |
- Rockström, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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A safe operating space for humanity
- 2009
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 461:7263, s. 472-475
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 43. |
- Rockström, J., et al.
(författare)
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Bern manipulerar klimatfakta
- 2008
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Ingår i: Svenska Dagbladet: Brännpunkt. ; :22 november 2008
-
Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)
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| 44. |
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| 45. |
- Rockström, Johan, et al.
(författare)
-
Identifying a Safe and Just Corridor for People and the Planet
- 2021
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Ingår i: Earth's Future. - 2328-4277. ; 9:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Keeping the Earth system in a stable and resilient state, to safeguard Earth's life support systems while ensuring that Earth's benefits, risks, and related responsibilities are equitably shared, constitutes the grand challenge for human development in the Anthropocene. Here, we describe a framework that the recently formed Earth Commission will use to define and quantify target ranges for a safe and just corridor that meets these goals. Although safe and just Earth system targets are interrelated, we see safe as primarily referring to a stable Earth system and just targets as being associated with meeting human needs and reducing exposure to risks. To align safe and just dimensions, we propose to address the equity dimensions of each safe target for Earth system regulating systems and processes. The more stringent of the safe or just target ranges then defines the corridor. Identifying levers of social transformation aimed at meeting the safe and just targets and challenges associated with translating the corridor to actors at multiple scales present scope for future work.
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| 46. |
- Rockström, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Planetary Boundaries : Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity
- 2009
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 14:2, s. 32-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely. Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. We have identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, we propose quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere <350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W m(-2) in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite >= 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (<5% reduction in O-3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N-2 to 35 Tg N yr(-1)) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km(3) yr(-1) of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which we have not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading. We estimate that humanity has already transgressed three planetary boundaries: for climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, and changes to the global nitrogen cycle. Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. The social impacts of transgressing boundaries will be a function of the social-ecological resilience of the affected societies. Our proposed boundaries are rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps. Filling these gaps will require major advancements in Earth System and resilience science. The proposed concept of "planetary boundaries" lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the "planetary playing field" for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale.
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| 47. |
- Rockström, Johan, 1965-, et al.
(författare)
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Safe and just Earth system boundaries
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 619:7968, s. 102-111
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice). The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.
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| 48. |
- Steffen, Will, et al.
(författare)
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The anthropocene : from global change to planetary stewardship
- 2011
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 40:7, s. 739-761
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past century, the total material wealth of humanity has been enhanced. However, in the twenty-first century, we face scarcity in critical resources, the degradation of ecosystem services, and the erosion of the planet's capability to absorb our wastes. Equity issues remain stubbornly difficult to solve. This situation is novel in its speed, its global scale and its threat to the resilience of the Earth System. The advent of the Anthropence, the time interval in which human activities now rival global geophysical processes, suggests that we need to fundamentally alter our relationship with the planet we inhabit. Many approaches could be adopted, ranging from geo-engineering solutions that purposefully manipulate parts of the Earth System to becoming active stewards of our own life support system. The Anthropocene is a reminder that the Holocene, during which complex human societies have developed, has been a stable, accommodating environment and is the only state of the Earth System that we know for sure can support contemporary society. The need to achieve effective planetary stewardship is urgent. As we go further into the Anthropocene, we risk driving the Earth System onto a trajectory toward more hostile states from which we cannot easily return.
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| 49. |
- Steffen, Will, et al.
(författare)
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Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 115:33, s. 8252-8259
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a Hothouse Earth pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.
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| 50. |
- Stewart-Koster, Ben, et al.
(författare)
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Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - 2398-9629. ; 7:1, s. 53-63
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for surface water and groundwater (blue water) have been defined for sustainable water management in the Anthropocene. Here we assessed whether minimum human needs could be met with surface water from within individual river basins alone and, where this is not possible, quantified how much groundwater would be required. Approximately 2.6 billion people live in river basins where groundwater is needed because they are already outside the surface water ESB or have insufficient surface water to meet human needs and the ESB. Approximately 1.4 billion people live in river basins where demand-side transformations would be required as they either exceed the surface water ESB or face a decline in groundwater recharge and cannot meet minimum needs within the ESB. A further 1.5 billion people live in river basins outside the ESB, with insufficient surface water to meet minimum needs, requiring both supply- and demand-side transformations. These results highlight the challenges and opportunities of meeting even basic human access needs to water and protecting aquatic ecosystems.
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