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1.
  • Fullman, N., et al. (author)
  • Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2018
  • In: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 391:10136, s. 2236-2271
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97.1 (95% UI 95.8-98.1) in Iceland, followed by 96.6 (94.9-97.9) in Norway and 96.1 (94.5-97.3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18.6 (13.1-24.4) in the Central African Republic, 19.0 (14.3-23.7) in Somalia, and 23.4 (20.2-26.8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91.5 (89.1-936) in Beijing to 48.0 (43.4-53.2) in Tibet (a 43.5-point difference), while India saw a 30.8-point disparity, from 64.8 (59.6-68.8) in Goa to 34.0 (30.3-38.1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4.8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20.9-point to 17.0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17.2-point to 20.4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view and subsequent provision of quality health care for all populations. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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  • Fitzmauric, C., et al. (author)
  • Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017 : A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study
  • 2019
  • In: JAMA Oncology. - : American Medical Association. - 2374-2437 .- 2374-2445. ; 5:12, s. 1749-1768
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. 
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  • Burstein, R., et al. (author)
  • Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
  • 2019
  • In: Nature. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 574:7778, s. 353-358
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. © 2019, The Author(s).
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  • Kinyoki, DK, et al. (author)
  • Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
  • 2020
  • In: Nature medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-170X .- 1078-8956. ; 26:5, s. 750-759
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic.
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  • Chang, A. Y., et al. (author)
  • Past, present, and future of global health financing : A review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995-2050
  • 2019
  • In: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 393:10187, s. 2233-2260
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. Methods: We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health. Findings: Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4.00% (95% uncertainty interval 3.89-4.12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2.72% [2.61-2.84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5.55% [5.18-5.95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3.71% [3.10-4.34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8.0 trillion (7.8-8.1) in 2016 (comprising 8.6% [8.4-8.7] of the global economy and $10.3 trillion [10.1-10.6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0.4% (0.3-0.4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10.0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9.5 billion, 24.3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6.27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China’s contribution to DAH ($644.7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15.0 trillion (14.0-16.0) by 2050 (reaching 9.4% [7.6-11.3] of the global economy and $21.3 trillion [19.8-23.1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1.84% (1.68-2.02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0.6% (0.6-0.7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15.7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130.2 (122.9-136.9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125.9 [113.7-138.1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments’ increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending. Interpretation: Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets. © 2019 The Author(s).
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  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (author)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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  • Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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  • Kinyoki, DK, et al. (author)
  • Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries
  • 2020
  • In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 577:7789, s. 231-
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0–59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3–5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization’s median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications.
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  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (author)
  • Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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  • Graetz, N, et al. (author)
  • Mapping disparities in education across low- and middle-income countries
  • 2020
  • In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 577:77907789, s. 235-238
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health1–3. As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting4–6. The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness7,8; however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health9–11. Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but—to our knowledge—no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of individuals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries12–14. By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations.
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18.
  • Feigin, Valery L., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2019
  • In: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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19.
  • Griswold, Max G., et al. (author)
  • Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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20.
  • Nichols, Emma, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2019
  • In: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:1, s. 88-106
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: The number of individuals living with dementia is increasing, negatively affecting families, communities, and health-care systems around the world. A successful response to these challenges requires an accurate understanding of the dementia disease burden. We aimed to present the first detailed analysis of the global prevalence, mortality, and overall burden of dementia as captured by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, and highlight the most important messages for clinicians and neurologists.Methods: GBD 2016 obtained data on dementia from vital registration systems, published scientific literature and surveys, and data from health-service encounters on deaths, excess mortality, prevalence, and incidence from 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016, through systematic review and additional data-seeking efforts. To correct for differences in cause of death coding across time and locations, we modelled mortality due to dementia using prevalence data and estimates of excess mortality derived from countries that were most likely to code deaths to dementia relative to prevalence. Data were analysed by standardised methods to estimate deaths, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; computed as the sum of YLLs and YLDs), and the fractions of these metrics that were attributable to four risk factors that met GBD criteria for assessment (high body-mass index [BMI], high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and a diet high in sugarsweetened beverages).Findings: In 2016, the global number of individuals who lived with dementia was 43.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3 7. 8-51.0), increased from 20.2 million (17. 4-23 5) in 1990. This increase of 117% (95% UI 114-121) contrasted with a minor increase in age-standardised prevalence of 1.7% (1.0-2.4), from 701 cases (95% UI 602-815) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 712 cases (614-828) per 100 000 population in 2016. More women than men had dementia in 2016 (27.0 million, 95% UI 23 .3-31. 4, vs 16.8 million, 14.4-19.6), and dementia was the fifth leading cause of death globally, accounting for 2.4 million (95% UI 2.1-2.8) deaths. Overall, 28.8 million (95% UI 24. 5-34. 0) DALYs were attributed to dementia; 6.4 million (95% UI 3 .4-10. 5) of these could be attributed to the modifiable GBD risk factors of high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and a high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages.Interpretation: The global number of people living with dementia more than doubled from 1990 to 2016, mainly due to increases in population ageing and growth. Although differences in coding for causes of death and the heterogeneity in case-ascertainment methods constitute major challenges to the estimation of the burden of dementia, future analyses should improve on the methods for the correction of these biases. Until breakthroughs are made in prevention or curative treatment, dementia will constitute an increasing challenge to health-care systems worldwide.
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21.
  • Müser, M. H., et al. (author)
  • Meeting the Contact-Mechanics Challenge
  • 2017
  • In: Tribology letters. - : Springer New York LLC. - 1023-8883 .- 1573-2711. ; 65:4
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • This paper summarizes the submissions to a recently announced contact-mechanics modeling challenge. The task was to solve a typical, albeit mathematically fully defined problem on the adhesion between nominally flat surfaces. The surface topography of the rough, rigid substrate, the elastic properties of the indenter, as well as the short-range adhesion between indenter and substrate, were specified so that diverse quantities of interest, e.g., the distribution of interfacial stresses at a given load or the mean gap as a function of load, could be computed and compared to a reference solution. Many different solution strategies were pursued, ranging from traditional asperity-based models via Persson theory and brute-force computational approaches, to real-laboratory experiments and all-atom molecular dynamics simulations of a model, in which the original assignment was scaled down to the atomistic scale. While each submission contained satisfying answers for at least a subset of the posed questions, efficiency, versatility, and accuracy differed between methods, the more precise methods being, in general, computationally more complex. The aim of this paper is to provide both theorists and experimentalists with benchmarks to decide which method is the most appropriate for a particular application and to gauge the errors associated with each one..
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22.
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23.
  • Soavi, G., et al. (author)
  • Hot electrons modulation of third harmonic generation in graphene
  • 2019
  • In: Optics InfoBase Conference Papers. - : OSA - The Optical Society.
  • Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Hot-electrons dominate the ultrafast (∼fs-ps) optical and electronic properties of metals and semiconductors [1-2] and they are exploited in a variety of applications including photovoltaics and photodetection. Here we perform power-dependent third harmonic generation (THG) measurements on gated single layer graphene (SLG) and we show that hot-electrons modulate significantly the power-law dependence of THG, inducing a large deviation from the expected cubic power-law. We use a Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) SLG sample transferred on Fused Silica (FS) and gated by ionic liquid (IL), Fig.1(a). We excite the sample with the idler beam of an Optical Parametric Oscillator (OPO, Coherent) at a photon energy of ħω0=0.69eV. The OPO is seeded by a mode-locked Ti:Sa laser (Coherent) with 150fs pulse duration and 80MHz repetition rate. The OPO idler spot-size is∼4.7µm and the pulse duration ∼300fs.
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24.
  • Abrahamsson, B., et al. (author)
  • Six years of progress in the oral biopharmaceutics area - A summary from the IMI OrBiTo project
  • 2020
  • In: European journal of pharmaceutics and biopharmaceutics. - : ELSEVIER. - 0939-6411 .- 1873-3441. ; 152, s. 236-247
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • OrBiTo was a precompetitive collaboration focused on the development of the next generation of Oral Biopharmaceutics Tools. The consortium included world leading scientists from nine universities, one regulatory agency, one non-profit research organisation, three small/medium sized specialist technology companies together with thirteen pharmaceutical companies. The goal of the OrBiTo project was to deliver a framework for rational application of predictive biopharmaceutics tools for oral drug delivery. This goal was achieved through novel prospective investigations to define new methodologies or refinement of existing tools. Extensive validation has been performed of novel and existing biopharmaceutics tools using historical datasets supplied by industry partners as well as laboratory ring studies. A combination of high quality in vitro and in vivo characterizations of active drugs and formulations have been integrated into physiologically based in silico biopharmaceutics models capturing the full complexity of gastrointestinal drug absorption and some of the best practices has been highlighted. This approach has given an unparalleled opportunity to deliver transformational change in European industrial research and development towards model based pharmaceutical product development in accordance with the vision of model-informed drug development.
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25.
  • Lennernäs, Hans, et al. (author)
  • Oral biopharmaceutics tools - Time for a new initiative - An introduction to the IMI project OrBiTo
  • 2014
  • In: European Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences. - : Elsevier BV. - 0928-0987 .- 1879-0720. ; 57:SI, s. 292-299
  • Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • OrBiTo is a new European project within the IMI programme in the area of oral biopharmaceutics tools that includes world leading scientists from nine European universities, one regulatory agency, one non-profit research organization, four SMEs together with scientists from twelve pharmaceutical companies. The OrBiTo project will address key gaps in our knowledge of gastrointestinal (GI) drug absorption and deliver a framework for rational application of predictive biopharmaceutics tools for oral drug delivery. This will be achieved through novel prospective investigations to define new methodologies as well as refinement of existing tools. Extensive validation of novel and existing biopharmaceutics tools will be performed using active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), formulations and supporting datasets from industry partners. A combination of high quality in vitro or in silico characterizations of API and formulations will be integrated into physiologically based in silica biopharmaceutics models capturing the full complexity of GI drug absorption. This approach gives an unparalleled opportunity to initiate a transformational change in industrial research and development to achieve model-based pharmaceutical product development in accordance with the Quality by Design concept. Benefits include an accelerated and more efficient drug candidate selection, formulation development process, particularly for challenging projects such as low solubility molecules (BCS II and IV), enhanced and modified-release formulations, as well as allowing optimization of clinical product performance for patient benefit. In addition, the tools emerging from OrBiTo are expected to significantly reduce demand for animal experiments in the future as well as reducing the number of human bioequivalence studies required to bridge formulations after manufacturing or composition changes.
  •  
26.
  • Nicholl, M., et al. (author)
  • On the diversity of superluminous supernovae : ejected mass as the dominant factor
  • 2015
  • In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 452:4, s. 3869-3893
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • We assemble a sample of 24 hydrogen-poor superluminous supernovae (SLSNe). Parameterizing the light-curve shape through rise and decline time-scales shows that the two are highly correlated. Magnetar-powered models can reproduce the correlation, with the diversity in rise and decline rates driven by the diffusion time-scale. Circumstellar interaction models can exhibit a similar rise-decline relation, but only for a narrow range of densities, which may be problematic for these models. We find that SLSNe are approximately 3.5 mag brighter and have light curves three times broader than SNe Ibc, but that the intrinsic shapes are similar. There are a number of SLSNe with particularly broad light curves, possibly indicating two progenitor channels, but statistical tests do not cleanly separate two populations. The general spectral evolution is also presented. Velocities measured from Fe II are similar for SLSNe and SNe Ibc, suggesting that diffusion time differences are dominated by mass or opacity. Flat velocity evolution in most SLSNe suggests a dense shell of ejecta. If opacities in SLSNe are similar to other SNe Ibc, the average ejected mass is higher by a factor 2-3. Assuming. = 0.1 cm(2) g(-1), we estimate a mean (median) SLSN ejecta mass of 10 M-circle dot (6 M-circle dot), with a range of 3-30 M-circle dot. Doubling the assumed opacity brings the masses closer to normal SNe Ibc, but with a high-mass tail. The most probable mechanism for generating SLSNe seems to be the core collapse of a very massive hydrogen-poor star, forming a millisecond magnetar.
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27.
  • Picetti, Edoardo, et al. (author)
  • Early management of adult traumatic spinal cord injury in patients with polytrauma : a consensus and clinical recommendations jointly developed by the World Society of Emergency Surgery (WSES) & the European Association of Neurosurgical Societies (EANS)
  • 2024
  • In: World Journal of Emergency Surgery. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1749-7922. ; 19
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: The early management of polytrauma patients with traumatic spinal cord injury (tSCI) is a major challenge. Sparse data is available to provide optimal care in this scenario and worldwide variability in clinical practice has been documented in recent studies.Methods: A multidisciplinary consensus panel of physicians selected for their established clinical and scientific expertise in the acute management of tSCI polytrauma patients with different specializations was established. The World Society of Emergency Surgery (WSES) and the European Association of Neurosurgical Societies (EANS) endorsed the consensus, and a modified Delphi approach was adopted.Results: A total of 17 statements were proposed and discussed. A consensus was reached generating 17 recommendations (16 strong and 1 weak).Conclusions: This consensus provides practical recommendations to support a clinician's decision making in the management of tSCI polytrauma patients.
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28.
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29.
  • Darwich, A. S., et al. (author)
  • Interplay of Metabolism and Transport in Determining Oral Drug Absorption and Gut Wall Metabolism : A Simulation Assessment Using the "Advanced Dissolution, Absorption, Metabolism (ADAM)" Model
  • 2010
  • In: Current drug metabolism. - : Bentham Science Publishers Ltd.. - 1389-2002 .- 1875-5453. ; 11:9, s. 716-729
  • Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Bioavailability of orally administered drugs can be influenced by a number of factors including release from the formulation, dissolution, stability in the gastrointestinal (GI) environment, permeability through the gut wall and first-pass gut wall and hepatic metabolism. Although there are various enzymes in the gut wall which may contribute to gut first pass metabolism, Cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A has been shown to play a major role. The efflux transporter P-glycoprotein (P-gp; MDR1/ABCB1) is the most extensively studied drug efflux transporter in the gut and might have a significant role in the regulation of GI absorption. Although not every CYP3A substrate will have a high extent of gut wall first-pass extraction, being a substrate for the enzyme increases the likelihood of a higher first-pass extraction. Similarly, being a P-gp substrate does not necessarily pose a problem with the gut wall absorption however it may reduce bioavailability in some cases (e. g. when drug has low passive permeability). An on-going debate has focused on the issue of the interplay between CYP3A and P-gp such that high affinity to P-gp increases the exposure of drug to CYP3A through repeated cycling via passive diffusion and active efflux, decreasing the fraction of drug that escapes first pass gut metabolism (F-G). The presence of P-gp in the gut wall and the high affinity of some CYP3A substrates to this transporter are postulated to reduce the potential for saturating the enzymes, thus increasing gut wall first-pass metabolism for compounds which otherwise would have saturated CYP3A. Such inferences are based on assumptions in the modelling of oral drug absorption. These models should be as mechanistic as possible and tractable using available in vitro and in vivo information. We review, through simulation, this subject and examine the interplay between gut wall metabolism and efflux transporters by studying the fraction of dose absorbed into enterocytes (F-a) and F-G via systematic variation of drug characteristics, in accordance with the Biopharmaceutics Classification System (BCS) within one of the most physiological models of oral drug absorption currently available, respectively ADAM. Variables studied included the intrinsic clearance (CLint) and the Michaelis-Menten Constant (K-m) for CYP3A4 and P-gp (CLint-CYP3A4 and Km-CYP3A4, CLint-P-gp and Km-P-gp). The impact of CYP3A4 and P-gp intracellular topography were not investigated since a well-stirred enterocyte is assumed within ADAM. An increased CLint-CYP3A4 resulted in a reduced F-G whereas an increase in CLint-P-gp resulted in a reduced F-a, but interestingly decreased F-G too. The reduction in F-G was limited to certain conditions and was modest. Non-linear relationships between various parameters determining the permeability (e. g. P-app, CLint-P-gp, and Km-P-gp) and gut wall metabolism (e. g. CLint-CYP3A4, Km-CYP3A4) resulted in disproportionate changes in F-G compared to the magnitude of singular effects. The results suggest that P-gp efflux decreases enterocytic drug concentration for drugs given at reasonably high dose which possess adequate passive apparent permeability (high P-app), by de-saturating CYP3A4 in the gut resulting in a lower F-G. However, these findings were observed only in a very limited area of the parameters space matching very few herapeutic drugs (a group with very high metabolism, high turn-over by efflux transporters and low F-a). The systematic approach in this study enabled us to recognise the combination of parameter values where the potential interplay between metabolising enzymes and efflux transporters is expected to be highest, using a realistic range of parameter values taken from an intensive literature search.
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30.
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31.
  • Prasad, Bhagwat, et al. (author)
  • Toward a Consensus on Applying Quantitative Liquid Chromatography-Tandem Mass Spectrometry Proteomics in Translational Pharmacology Research : A White Paper
  • 2019
  • In: Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics. - : WILEY. - 0009-9236 .- 1532-6535. ; 106:3, s. 525-543
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Quantitative translation of information on drug absorption, disposition, receptor engagement, and drug-drug interactions from bench to bedside requires models informed by physiological parameters that link in vitro studies to in vivo outcomes. To predict in vivo outcomes, biochemical data from experimental systems are routinely scaled using protein quantity in these systems and relevant tissues. Although several laboratories have generated useful quantitative proteomic data using state-of-the-art mass spectrometry, no harmonized guidelines exit for sample analysis and data integration to in vivo translation practices. To address this gap, a workshop was held on September 27 and 28, 2018, in Cambridge, MA, with 100 experts attending from academia, the pharmaceutical industry, and regulators. Various aspects of quantitative proteomics and its applications in translational pharmacology were debated. A summary of discussions and best practices identified by this expert panel are presented in this "White Paper" alongside unresolved issues that were outlined for future debates.
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32.
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33.
  • Rostami, Jowan, et al. (author)
  • Hierarchical build-up of bio-based nanofibrous materials with tunable metal-organic framework biofunctionality
  • 2021
  • In: Materials Today. - : Elsevier BV. - 1369-7021 .- 1873-4103. ; 48, s. 47-58
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Multifunctional, light-weight, responsive materials show promise in a range of applications including soft robotics, therapeutic delivery, advanced diagnostics and charge storage. This paper presents a novel, scalable, efficient and sustainable approach for the preparation of cellulose nanofibril-based aerogels via a facile ice-templating, solvent exchange and air-drying procedure, which could replace existing inefficient drying processes. These ambient-dried aerogels (similar to 99% porosity) exhibit a high specific compressive modulus (26.8 +/- 6.1 kPa m(3) kg(-1), approaching equivalence of carbon-nanotubereinforced aerogels), wet stability and shape recovery (80-90%), favorable specific surface area (90 m(2) g(-1)) and tunable densities (2-20 kg m(-3)). The aerogels provide an ideal nanofibrillar substrate for in-situ growth of metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), via co-assembly of MOF precursors with proteins in aqueous solutions. The resulting hybrid aerogels show a nine-fold increase in surface area (810 m(2)g(-1)), with preserved wet stability and additional protein biofunctionality. The hybrid aerogels facilitate a pH-controlled release of immobilized proteins, following a concomitant disassembly of the surface grown MOFs, demonstrating their use in controlled delivery systems. The colorimetric protein binding assay of the biofunctionalized hybrid aerogel also demonstrates the potential of the material as a novel 3D bioassay platform, which could potentially be an alternative to plate-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.
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34.
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35.
  • Shubnic, A., et al. (author)
  • Exciton spin Hall effect in arc-shaped strained WSe2
  • 2024
  • In: Physical Review B. - : American Physical Society (APS). - 2469-9950 .- 2469-9969. ; 109:20
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Generating a pure spin current using electrons, which have degrees of freedom beyond spin, such as electric charge and valley index, presents challenges. In response, we propose a mechanism based on intervalley exciton dynamics in arc-shaped strained transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) to achieve the exciton spin Hall effect in an electrically insulating regime, without the need for an external electric field. The interplay between strain gradients and strain-induced pseudomagnetic fields results in a net Lorentz force on long-lived intervalley excitons in WSe2, carrying nonzero spin angular momentum. This process generates an exciton-mediated pure spin Hall current, resulting in opposite-sign spin accumulations and local magnetization on the two sides of the single-layer arc-shaped TMD. We demonstrate that the magnetic field induced by spin accumulation, at approximately ∼mT, can be detected using techniques such as superconducting quantum interference magnetometry or spatially resolved magneto-optical Faraday and Kerr rotations.
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36.
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37.
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38.
  • Ben-David, Yael, et al. (author)
  • RIC3, the cholinergic anti-inflammatory pathway, and neuroinflammation
  • 2020
  • In: International Immunopharmacology. - : ELSEVIER. - 1567-5769 .- 1878-1705. ; 83
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs) are ligand-gated ion channels having many functions including inflammation control, as part of the cholinergic anti-inflammatory pathway. Genome wide association studies implicated RIC3, a chaperone of nAChRs, in multiple sclerosis (MS), a neuroinflammatory disease. To understand the involvement of RIC3 in inflammatory diseases we examined its expression, regulation, and function in activated immune cells. Our results show that immune activation leads to dynamic changes in RIC3 expression, in a mouse model of MS and in human lymphocytes and macrophages. We also show similarities in the expression dynamics of RIC3 and CHRNA7, encoding for the alpha 7 nAChR subunit. Homomeric alpha 7 nAChRs were shown to mediate the anti-inflammatory effects of cholinergic agonists. Thus, similarity in expression dynamics between RIC3 and CHRNA7 is suggestive of functional concordance. Indeed, siRNA mediated silencing of RIC3 in a mouse macrophage cell line eliminates the anti-inflammatory effects of cholinergic agonists. Furthermore, we show increased average expression of RIC3 and CHRNA7 in lymphocytes from MS patients, and a strong correlation between expression levels of these two genes in MS patients but not in healthy donors. Together, our results are consistent with a role for RIC3 and for the mechanisms regulating its expression in inflammatory processes and in neuroinflammatory diseases.
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39.
  • Brussee, Janneke M., et al. (author)
  • Characterization of Intestinal and Hepatic CYP3A-Mediated Metabolism of Midazolam in Children Using a Physiological Population Pharmacokinetic Modelling Approach
  • 2018
  • In: Pharmaceutical research. - : Springer. - 0724-8741 .- 1573-904X. ; 35:9
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Purpose Changes in drug absorption and first-pass metabolism have been reported throughout the pediatric age range. Our aim is to characterize both intestinal and hepatic CYP3A-mediated metabolism of midazolam in children in order to predict first-pass and systemic metabolism of CYP3A substrates. Methods Pharmacokinetic (PK) data of midazolam and 1-OH-midazolam from 264 post-operative children 1-18 years of age after oral administration were analyzed using a physiological population PK. modelling approach. In the model, consisting of physiological compartments representing the gastro-intestinal tract and liver,intrinsic intestinal and hepatic clearances were estimated to derive values for bioavailability and plasma clearance. Results The whole-organ intrinsic clearance in the gut wall and liver were found to increase with body weight, with a 105 (95% confidence interval (CI): 5-405) times lower intrinsic gut wall clearance than the intrinsic hepatic dearance (i.e. 5.08 L/h (relative standard error (RSE) 10%) versus 527 L/h (RSE 7%) for a 16 kg individual, respectively). When expressed per gram of organ, intrinsic clearance increases with increasing body weight in the gut wall, but decreases in the liver, indicating that CYP3A-mediated intrinsic clearance and local bioavailability in the gut wall and liver do not change with age in parallel. The resulting total bioavailability was found to be age-independent with a median of 20.8% in children (95%CI: 3.8-50.0%). Conclusion In conclusion, the intrinsic CYP3A-mediated gut wall clearance is substantially lower than the intrinsic hepatic CYP3A-mediated clearance in children from 1 to 18 years of age, and contributes less to the overall first-pass metabolism compared to adults.
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40.
  • Brussee, Janneke M., et al. (author)
  • First-Pass CYP3A-Mediated Metabolism of Midazolam in the Gut Wall and Liver in Preterm Neonates
  • 2018
  • In: CPT. - : WILEY. - 2163-8306. ; 7:6, s. 374-383
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • To predict first-pass and systemic cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A-mediated metabolism of midazolam in preterm neonates, a physiological population pharmacokinetic model was developed describing intestinal and hepatic midazolam clearance in preterm infants. On the basis of midazolam and 1-OH-midazolam concentrations from 37 preterm neonates (gestational age 26-34 weeks) receiving midazolam orally and/or via a 30-minute intravenous infusion, intrinsic clearance in the gut wall and liver were found to be very low, with lower values in the gut wall (0.0196 and 6.7 L/h, respectively). This results in a highly variable and high total oral bioavailability of 92.1% (range, 67-95%) in preterm neonates, whereas this is around 30% in adults. This approach in which intestinal and hepatic clearance were separately estimated shows that the high bioavailability in preterm neonates is explained by, likely age-related, low CYP3A activity in the liver and even lower CYP3A activity in the gut wall.
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41.
  • El-Khateeb, Eman, et al. (author)
  • Using Prior Knowledge on Systems Through PBPK to Gain Further Insight into Routine Clinical Data on Trough Concentrations: The Case of Tacrolimus in Chronic Kidney Disease
  • 2023
  • In: Therapeutic Drug Monitoring. - : Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health). - 0163-4356 .- 1536-3694. ; 45:6, s. 743-753
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Routine therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) relies heavily on measuring trough drug concentrations. Trough concentrations are affected not only by drug bioavailability and clearance, but also by various patient and disease factors and the volume of distribution. This often makes interpreting differences in drug exposure from trough data challenging. This study aimed to combine the advantages of top-down analysis of therapeutic drug monitoring data with bottom-up physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to investigate the effect of declining renal function in chronic kidney disease (CKD) on the nonrenal intrinsic metabolic clearance (CLint) of tacrolimus as a case example.Methods: Data on biochemistry, demographics, and kidney function, along with 1167 tacrolimus trough concentrations for 40 renal transplant patients, were collected from the Salford Royal Hospital's database. A reduced PBPK model was developed to estimate CLint for each patient. Personalized unbound fractions, blood-to-plasma ratios, and drug affinities for various tissues were used as priors to estimate the apparent volume of distribution. Kidney function based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was assessed as a covariate for CLint using the stochastic approximation of expectation and maximization method.Results: At baseline, the median (interquartile range) eGFR was 45 (34.5-55.5) mL/min/1.73 m2. A significant but weak correlation was observed between tacrolimus CLint and eGFR (r = 0.2, P < 0.001). The CLint declined gradually (up to 36%) with CKD progression. Tacrolimus CLint did not differ significantly between stable and failing transplant patients.Conclusions: Kidney function deterioration in CKD can affect nonrenal CLint for drugs that undergo extensive hepatic metabolism, such as tacrolimus, with critical implications in clinical practice. This study demonstrates the advantages of combining prior system information (via PBPK) to investigate covariate effects in sparse real-world datasets.
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42.
  • Hutchinson, Peter J, et al. (author)
  • Consensus statement from the 2014 International Microdialysis Forum
  • 2015
  • In: Intensive Care Medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0342-4642 .- 1432-1238. ; 41:9, s. 1517-1528
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Microdialysis enables the chemistry of the extracellular interstitial space to be monitored. Use of this technique in patients with acute brain injury has increased our understanding of the pathophysiology of several acute neurological disorders. In 2004, a consensus document on the clinical application of cerebral microdialysis was published. Since then, there have been significant advances in the clinical use of microdialysis in neurocritical care. The objective of this review is to report on the International Microdialysis Forum held in Cambridge, UK, in April 2014 and to produce a revised and updated consensus statement about its clinical use including technique, data interpretation, relationship with outcome, role in guiding therapy in neurocritical care and research applications.
  •  
43.
  • Juratli, Tareq A., et al. (author)
  • Targeted treatment of papillary craniopharyngiomas harboring BRAF V600E mutations
  • 2019
  • In: Cancer. - : WILEY. - 0008-543X .- 1097-0142. ; 125:17, s. 2910-2914
  • Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract
    • Papillary craniopharyngiomas (PCPs) are characterized by the presence of BRAF V600E mutations, which are emerging as a useful guide for diagnosis and treatment decision making. The ongoing multicenter phase 2 Alliance A071601 trial is evaluating the efficacy of BRAF and mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase (MEK) inhibitors for patients with PCPs. With continued successful responses, it is proposed that BRAF (and MEK) inhibitors be evaluated for the neoadjuvant treatment of patients with PCPs.
  •  
44.
  • Lekholm, Emilia, et al. (author)
  • Putative Membrane-Bound Transporters MFSD14A and MFSD14B Are Neuronal and Affected by Nutrient Availability
  • 2017
  • In: Frontiers in Molecular Neuroscience. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1662-5099. ; 10
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Characterization of orphan transporters is of importance due to their involvement in cellular homeostasis but also in pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. The tissue and cellular localization, as well as function, is still unknown for many of the solute carriers belonging to the major facilitator superfamily (MFS) Pfam clan. Here, we have characterized two putative novel transporters MFSD14A (HIAT1) and MFSD14B (HIATL1) in the mouse central nervous system and found protein staining throughout the adult mouse brain. Both transporters localized to neurons and MFSD14A co-localized with the Golgi marker Giantin in primary embryonic cortex cultures, while MFSD14B staining co-localized with an endoplasmic retention marker, KDEL. Based on phylogenetic clustering analyses, we predict both to have organic substrate profiles, and possible involvement in energy homeostasis. Therefore, we monitored gene regulation changes in mouse embryonic primary cultures after amino acid starvations and found both transporters to be upregulated after 3 h of starvation. Interestingly, in mice subjected to 24 h of food starvation, both transporters were downregulated in the hypothalamus, while Mfsdl4a was also downregulated in the brainstem. In addition, in mice fed a high fat diet (HFD), upregulation of both transporters was seen in the striatum. Both MFSD14A and MFSD14B were intracellular neuronal membrane bound proteins, expressed in the Golgi and Endoplasmic reticulum, affected by both starvation and HFD to varying degree in the mouse brain.
  •  
45.
  •  
46.
  • Mann, I., et al. (author)
  • First wind shear observation in PMSE with the tristatic EISCAT VHF radar
  • 2016
  • In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics. - : Blackwell Publishing Ltd. - 2169-9380 .- 2169-9402. ; 121:11, s. 11,271-11,281
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The Polar Summer Mesosphere has the lowest temperatures that occur in the entire Earth system. Water ice particles below the optically observable size range participate there in the formation of strong radar echoes (Polar Mesospheric Summer Echoes, PMSE). To study PMSE we carried out observations with the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) VHF and EISCAT UHF radar simultaneously from a site near Tromsø (69.58°N, 19.2272°E) and observed VHF backscattering also with the EISCAT receivers in Kiruna (67.86°N, 20.44°E) and Sodankylä (67.36°N, 26.63°E). This is one of the first tristatic measurements with EISCAT VHF, and we therefore describe the observations and geometry in detail. We present observations made on 26 June 2013 from 7:00 to 13:00 h UT where we found similar PMSE patterns with all three VHF receivers and found signs of wind shear in PMSE. The observations suggest that the PMSE contains sublayers that move in different directions horizontally, and this points to Kelvin-Helmholtz instability possibly playing a role in PMSE formation. We find no signs of PMSE in the UHF data. The electron densities that we derive from observed incoherent scatter at UHF are at PMSE altitudes close to the noise level but possibly indicate reduced electron densities directly above the PMSE.
  •  
47.
  • Natalino, Carlos, Dr. 1987-, et al. (author)
  • Machine Learning Aided Orchestration in Multi-Tenant Networks
  • 2018
  • In: IEEE Photonics Society Summer Topicals Meeting Series, SUM 2018. - : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. - 9781538653432 ; , s. 125-126
  • Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Software Defined Networking enables the efficient sharing of a network infrastructure among different tenants, a concept known as network slicing. The paper presents a slicing strategy based on reinforcement learning able to efficiently orchestrate services requested by mobile and cloud tenants. 
  •  
48.
  •  
49.
  • Ohlen, P., et al. (author)
  • Data plane and control architectures for 5G transport networks
  • 2015
  • In: European Conference on Optical Communication, ECOC. - : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). - 9788460817413
  • Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Next generation 5G mobile system will support the vision of connecting all devices that benefit from a connection. Transport networks need to support the required capacity, latency and flexibility. This paper outlines how 5G transport networks will address these requirements.
  •  
50.
  • Rostami, Elham, 1979-, et al. (author)
  • BDNF polymorphism predicts general intelligence after penetrating traumatic brain injury
  • 2011
  • In: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 6:11, s. e27389-
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Neuronal plasticity is a fundamental factor in cognitive outcome following traumatic brain injury. Brain-derivedneurotrophic factor (BDNF), a member of the neurotrophin family, plays an important role in this process. While thereare many ways to measure cognitive outcome, general cognitive intelligence is a strong predictor of everyday decisionmaking,occupational attainment, social mobility and job performance. Thus it is an excellent measure of cognitive outcomefollowing traumatic brain injury (TBI). Although the importance of the single-nucleotide polymorphisms polymorphism oncognitive function has been previously addressed, its role in recovery of general intelligence following TBI is unknown. Wegenotyped male Caucasian Vietnam combat veterans with focal penetrating TBI (pTBI) (n = 109) and non-head injuredcontrols (n = 38) for 7 BDNF single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Subjects were administrated the Armed Forces QualificationTest (AFQT) at three different time periods: pre-injury on induction into the military, Phase II (10–15 years post-injury, andPhase III (30–35 years post-injury). Two single-nucleotide polymorphisms, rs7124442 and rs1519480, were significantlyassociated with post-injury recovery of general cognitive intelligence with the most pronounced effect at the Phase II timepoint, indicating lesion-induced plasticity. The genotypes accounted for 5% of the variance of the AFQT scores,independently of other significant predictors such as pre-injury intelligence and percentage of brain volume loss. Thesedata indicate that genetic variations in BDNF play a significant role in lesion-induced recovery following pTBI. Identifying theunderlying mechanism of this brain-derived neurotrophic factor effect could provide insight into an important aspect ofpost-traumatic cognitive recovery.
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