| 1. |
- Achberger, Christine, 1968, et al.
(author)
-
State of the Climate in 2011
- 2012
-
In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 93:7
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Large-scale climate patterns influenced temperature and weather patterns around the globe in 2011. In particular, a moderate-to-strong La Nina at the beginning of the year dissipated during boreal spring but reemerged during fall. The phenomenon contributed to historical droughts in East Africa, the southern United States, and northern Mexico, as well the wettest two-year period (2010-11) on record for Australia, particularly remarkable as this follows a decade-long dry period. Precipitation patterns in South America were also influenced by La Nina. Heavy rain in Rio de Janeiro in January triggered the country's worst floods and landslides in Brazil's history. The 2011 combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was the coolest since 2008, but was also among the 15 warmest years on record and above the 1981-2010 average. The global sea surface temperature cooled by 0.1 degrees C from 2010 to 2011, associated with cooling influences of La Nina. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for 2011 were higher than for all prior years, demonstrating the Earth's dominant role of the oceans in the Earth's energy budget. In the upper atmosphere, tropical stratospheric temperatures were anomalously warm, while polar temperatures were anomalously cold. This led to large springtime stratospheric ozone reductions in polar latitudes in both hemispheres. Ozone concentrations in the Arctic stratosphere during March were the lowest for that period since satellite records began in 1979. An extensive, deep, and persistent ozone hole over the Antarctic in September indicates that the recovery to pre-1980 conditions is proceeding very slowly. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 2.10 ppm in 2011, and exceeded 390 ppm for the first time since instrumental records began. Other greenhouse gases also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 30% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Most ozone depleting substances continued to fall. The global net ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2010 transition period from El Nino to La Nina, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, was estimated to be 1.30 Pg C yr(-1), almost 12% below the 29-year long-term average. Relative to the long-term trend, global sea level dropped noticeably in mid-2010 and reached a local minimum in 2011. The drop has been linked to the La Nina conditions that prevailed throughout much of 2010-11. Global sea level increased sharply during the second half of 2011. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2011 was well-below average, with a total of 74 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010, the North Atlantic was the only basin that experienced above-normal activity. For the first year since the widespread introduction of the Dvorak intensity-estimation method in the 1980s, only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity level-all in the Northwest Pacific basin. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate compared with lower latitudes. Below-normal summer snowfall, a decreasing trend in surface albedo, and above-average surface and upper air temperatures resulted in a continued pattern of extreme surface melting, and net snow and ice loss on the Greenland ice sheet. Warmer-than-normal temperatures over the Eurasian Arctic in spring resulted in a new record-low June snow cover extent and spring snow cover duration in this region. In the Canadian Arctic, the mass loss from glaciers and ice caps was the greatest since GRACE measurements began in 2002, continuing a negative trend that began in 1987. New record high temperatures occurred at 20 m below the land surface at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska, where measurements began in the late 1970s. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2011 was the second-lowest on record, while the extent of old ice (four and five years) reached a new record minimum that was just 19% of normal. On the opposite pole, austral winter and spring temperatures were more than 3 degrees C above normal over much of the Antarctic continent. However, winter temperatures were below normal in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, which continued the downward trend there during the last 15 years. In summer, an all-time record high temperature of -12.3 degrees C was set at the South Pole station on 25 December, exceeding the previous record by more than a full degree. Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies increased steadily through much of the year, from briefly setting a record low in April, to well above average in December. The latter trend reflects the dispersive effects of low pressure on sea ice and the generally cool conditions around the Antarctic perimeter.
|
|
| 2. |
- Wilson, Samuel T., et al.
(author)
-
Short-term variability in euphotic zone biogeochemistry and primary productivity at Station ALOHA : A case study of summer 2012
- 2015
-
In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 29:8, s. 1145-1164
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Time-series observations are critical to understand the structure, function, and dynamics of marine ecosystems. The Hawaii Ocean Time-series program has maintained near-monthly sampling at Station ALOHA (22°45′N, 158°00′W) in the oligotrophic North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) since 1988 and has identified ecosystem variability over seasonal to interannual timescales. To further extend the temporal resolution of these near-monthly time-series observations, an extensive field campaign was conducted during July-September 2012 at Station ALOHA with near-daily sampling of upper water-column biogeochemistry, phytoplankton abundance, and activity. The resulting data set provided biogeochemical measurements at high temporal resolution and documents two important events at Station ALOHA: (1) a prolonged period of low productivity when net community production in the mixed layer shifted to a net heterotrophic state and (2) detection of a distinct sea-surface salinity minimum feature which was prominent in the upper water column (0-50 m) for a period of approximately 30 days. The shipboard observations during July-September 2012 were supplemented with in situ measurements provided by Seagliders, profiling floats, and remote satellite observations that together revealed the extent of the low productivity and the sea-surface salinity minimum feature in the NPSG.
|
|
| 3. |
- Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik, et al.
(author)
-
European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE
- 2019
-
In: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 14:8
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The long-term relationship between temperature and hydroclimate has remained uncertain due to the short length of instrumental measurements and inconsistent results from climate model simulations. This lack of understanding is particularly critical with regard to projected drought and flood risks. Here we assess warm-season co-variability patterns between temperature and hydroclimate over Europe back to 850 CE using instrumental measurements, tree-ring based reconstructions, and climate model simulations. We find that the temperature-hydroclimate relationship in both the instrumental and reconstructed data turns more positive at lower frequencies, but less so in model simulations, with a dipole emerging between positive (warm and wet) and negative (warm and dry) associations in northern and southern Europe, respectively. Compared to instrumental data, models reveal a more negative co-variability across all timescales, while reconstructions exhibit a more positive co-variability. Despite the observed differences in the temperature-hydroclimate co-variability patterns in instrumental, reconstructed and model simulated data, we find that all data types share relatively similar phase-relationships between temperature and hydroclimate, indicating the common influence of external forcing. The co-variability between temperature and soil moisture in the model simulations is overestimated, implying a possible overestimation of temperature-driven future drought risks.
|
|
| 4. |
- Luterbacher, Jürg, et al.
(author)
-
Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January–April climate over the past half millennium : results and insights from instrumental data,documentary evidence and coupled climate models
- 2010
-
In: Climatic Change. - Netherlands : Springer. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 101:1-2, s. 201-234
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We use long instrumental temperature series together with available field reconstructions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and three-dimensional climate modelsimulations to analyze relations between temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation patterns over much of Europe and the Mediterranean for the late winter/early spring (January–April, JFMA) season. A Canonical Correlation Analysis(CCA) investigates interannual to interdecadal covariability between a new gridded SLP field reconstruction and seven long instrumental temperature series covering the past 250 years. We then present and discuss prominent atmospheric circulation patterns related to anomalous warm and cold JFMA conditions within different European areas spanning the period 1760–2007. Next, using a data assimilation technique, we link gridded SLP data with a climate model (EC-Bilt-Clio) for a better dynamical understanding of the relationship between large scale circulationand European climate. We thus present an alternative approach to reconstruct climate for the pre-instrumental period based on the assimilated model simulations.Furthermore, we present an independent method to extend the dynamic circulation analysis for anomalously cold European JFMA conditions back to the sixteenth century. To this end, we use documentary records that are spatially representative for the long instrumental records and derive, through modern analogs, large-scale SLP, surface temperature and precipitation fields. The skill of the analog method is tested in the virtual world of two three-dimensional climate simulations (ECHOGand HadCM3). This endeavor offers new possibilities to both constrain climate model into a reconstruction mode (through the assimilation approach) and to better assess documentary data in a quantitative way.
|
|
| 5. |
- Luterbacher, J., et al.
(author)
-
European summer temperatures since Roman times
- 2016
-
In: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:2
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The spatial context is criticalwhen assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotemporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June-August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951-2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986-2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850-2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.
|
|
| 6. |
- Díez-Maroto, L., et al.
(author)
-
A WACS exploiting generator Excitation Boosters for power system transient stability enhancement
- 2017
-
In: Electric power systems research. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0378-7796 .- 1873-2046. ; 148, s. 245-253
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Excitation Boosters (EB) are designed to improve transient stability of synchronous generators equipped with bus fed static excitation systems. They can be controlled using either local or remote signals following a disturbance. This paper explores how critical clearing times (CCT) can be improved by EBs controlled using remote signals. Particularly, Pseudo Center of Inertia (PCOI) and Dominant Interarea Path (DIP) signals derived from Phasor Measurement Units (PMU) within a Wide Area Control System (WACS) are used. Prototype controllers are tested by means of a Real Time (RT) Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) experimental setup.
|
|
| 7. |
- Liñán, I. Dorado, et al.
(author)
-
Estimating 750 years of temperature variations and uncertainties in the Pyrenees by tree ring reconstructions and climate simulations
- 2012
-
In: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 8:3, s. 919-933
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Past temperature variations are usually inferred from proxy data or estimated using general circulation models. Comparisons between climate estimations derived from proxy records and from model simulations help to better understand mechanisms driving climate variations, and also offer the possibility to identify deficiencies in both approaches. This paper presents regional temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring maximum density series in the Pyrenees, and compares them with the output of global simulations for this region and with regional climate model simulations conducted for the target region. An ensemble of 24 reconstructions of May-to-September regional mean temperature was derived from 22 maximum density tree-ring site chronologies distributed over the larger Pyrenees area. Four different tree-ring series standardization procedures were applied, combining two detrending methods: 300-yr spline and the regional curve standardization (RCS). Additionally, different methodological variants for the regional chronology were generated by using three different aggregation methods. Calibration verification trials were performed in split periods and using two methods: regression and a simple variance matching. The resulting set of temperature reconstructions was compared with climate simulations performed with global (ECHO-G) and regional (MM5) climate models. The 24 variants of May-to-September temperature reconstructions reveal a generally coherent pattern of inter-annual to multi-centennial temperature variations in the Pyrenees region for the last 750 yr. However, some reconstructions display a marked positive trend for the entire length of the reconstruction, pointing out that the application of the RCS method to a suboptimal set of samples may lead to unreliable results. Climate model simulations agree with the tree-ring based reconstructions at multi-decadal time scales, suggesting solar variability and volcanism as the main factors controlling preindustrial mean temperature variations in the Pyrenees. Nevertheless, the comparison also highlights differences with the reconstructions, mainly in the amplitude of past temperature variations and in the 20th century trends. Neither proxy-based reconstructions nor model simulations are able to perfectly track the temperature variations of the instrumental record, suggesting that both approximations still need further improvements.
|
|
| 8. |
- Oluic, Marina, et al.
(author)
-
On the Nature of Voltage Impasse Regions in Power System Dynamics Studies
- 2018
-
In: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems. - : IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC. - 0885-8950 .- 1558-0679. ; 33:3, s. 2660-2670
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper presents a fundamental study of voltage collapses that occur on a post-fault trajectory of a stressed power system in seconds after large disturbances. The focus of the study are voltage collapses that are induced by certain load models. Using an n-machine-N-bus power system model, the paper explicitly shows that the voltage collapse is caused by the non-existence of a real, positive solution for a load voltage magnitude in different areas of a relative rotor angle space when the load is of non-linear type. These "areas without voltage solution" are denoted as Voltage Impasse Regions (VIR) and are mathematically characterized as trigonometric functions of (n-1) relative rotor angles. Once the post-fault trajectory enters a VIR, voltage magnitude solutions become complex or negative, the algebraic Jacobian becomes singular, and the behaviour of a system becomes undefined. The case study has been carried out using a simple 3-machine-1-load system with static load models. In the study, VIR appeared and enlarged as the non-linear (constant power and constant current) load increased. Furthermore, the non-convergence of time-domain solution occurred exactly at VIR, thereby confirming that the problem is of structural nature.
|
|
