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- Johansson, Daniel, 1975, et al.
(författare)
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Multi - model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime
- 2012
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper presents a modeling comparison project on how the2°C climate target could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. The analysis uses a framework that harmonizes baseline developments and soft-links seven national and global models being either economy wide (CGE models) or energy system models. The analysis is based on a global greenhouse gas emission pathway that aims at a radiative forcing of 2.9 W/m2 in 2100 and with a policy regime based on convergence of per capita CO2 emissions with emissions trading. Economic and energy implications for China and India vary across models. Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. Reliance on Coal without Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is significantly reduced in most models, while CCS is a central abatement technology in energy system models, as is renewable and nuclear energy. Concerning economic impacts China bears in general a higher cost than India, as China benefits less from emissions trading. Costs are also affected by changes in fossil fuel prices, currency appreciation from capital inflow from carbon trading and timing of emission reductions.
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| 2. |
- Johansson, Daniel, 1975, et al.
(författare)
-
Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime
- 2015
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Ingår i: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1381-2386 .- 1573-1596. ; 20:8, s. 1335-1359
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national scale are soft-linked and harmonized with respect to population and economic assumptions. We simulate a climate regime, based on long-term convergence of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, starting from the emission pledges presented in the Copenhagen Accord to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and allowing full emissions trading between countries. Under the climate regime, Indian emission allowances are allowed to grow more than the Chinese allowances, due to the per capita convergence rule and the higher population growth in India. Economic and energy implications not only differ among the two countries, but also across model types. Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. The reduction in carbon intensity is mostly achieved through deployment of carbon capture and storage, renewable energy sources and nuclear energy. The economic impacts are generally higher in China than in India, due to higher 2010–2050 cumulative abatement in China and the fact that India can offset more of its abatement cost though international emission trading.
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