| 1. |
- Brukas, Vilis, et al.
(författare)
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How Sensitive Are Ecosystem Services in European Forest Landscapes to Silvicultural Treatment?
- 2015
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Ingår i: Forests. - : MDPI AG. - 1999-4907. ; 6, s. 1666-1695
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While sustainable forestry in Europe is characterized by the provision of a multitude of forest ecosystem services, there exists no comprehensive study that scrutinizes their sensitivity to forest management on a pan-European scale, so far. We compile scenario runs from regionally tailored forest growth models and Decision Support Systems (DSS) from 20 case studies throughout Europe and analyze whether the ecosystem service provision depends on management intensity and other co-variables, comprising regional affiliation, social environment, and tree species composition. The simulation runs provide information about the case-specifically most important ecosystem services in terms of appropriate indicators. We found a strong positive correlation between management intensity and wood production, but only weak correlation with protective and socioeconomic forest functions. Interestingly, depending on the forest region, we found that biodiversity can react in both ways, positively and negatively, to increased management intensity. Thus, it may be in tradeoff or in synergy with wood production and forest resource maintenance. The covariables species composition and social environment are of punctual interest only, while the affiliation to a certain region often makes an important difference in terms of an ecosystem service's treatment sensitivity.
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| 2. |
- Sallnäs, Ola, et al.
(författare)
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Forest owner behavioral models, policy changes, and forest management. An agent-based framework for studying the provision of forest ecosystem goods and services at the landscape level
- 2019
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Ingår i: Forest Policy and Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 1389-9341 .- 1872-7050. ; 103, s. 79-89
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we develop an interdisciplinary agent-based framework for studying the provision of forest ecosystem goods and services (ES) at the landscape level. It combines forest owner types and their behavioral models with forest decision support systems (DSS). For this, we draw on mainstream decision-making theories in social sciences and relevant empirical evidence from Europe and beyond to suggest how economic, sociological and psychological rationalities can be combined to build a typology and behavioral models of forest owner decision-making including responsiveness to policy and socioeconomic changes. We then discuss how the theory-driven and evidence-based behavioral models in combination with forest owner and forest management insights can be used to analyze forest management behavior and responsiveness to policy and socioeconomic developments. By comparing standard forest DSS modeling results to exemplary results using the agent-based framework in terms of long-term simulations of timber production and biodiversity conservation in a case study in Sweden, we illustrate how the framework accounts for more differentiated and more realistic forest management practices at the forest landscape level. We discuss how the agent-based framework also helps explore and explain the impacts of future policy and socioeconomic changes on the provision of forest ES. We then suggest directions for future research that can further develop the framework and its use in forest modeling and DSS to better analyze the impact of future developments on forest management and the provision of forest ES at the landscape level.
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| 3. |
- Bergh, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Effekter av ett förändrat klimat på skogen och implikationer för skogsbruket : Bilaga B 19, Arbetsrapport 34
- 2007
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Ingår i: Sverige inför klimatförändringarna. - : Fritzes. ; , s. 1-71
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Bokkapitel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Att klimatet kan komma att förändras påverkar svenskt skogsbruk. Skogen har i sig en direkt inverkan på klimatet samtidigt som skogsbruket kan behöva anpassas till de nya förhållandena. Ett osäkert klimat sätter brukandet av skogen i ett nytt läge som vi inte har någon tidigare erfarenhet av. Scenarier för framtida klimatutveckling är behäftade med stor osäkerhet och de förväntade effekterna på skogen blir således ännu mer osäkra. Trots detta kan man ändå förutsäga några sannolika huvuddrag i effekterna på den svenska skogen vid ett framtida ändrat klimat. En ökad potential för biomassaproduktion kan förväntas, liksom ökade möjligheter att använda nya arter i skogsbruket. Samtidigt ökar sannolikt risken för vissa typer av skador.Att väga eventuella fördelar i form av ökad produktion och ökade möjligheter i trädslagsval mot ökade risker för skador är viktigt för att ge samhället ett helhetsperspektiv och för att en större grupp ska ha möjlighet att ta till sig frågan. Det är också viktigt att i största möjliga mån kvantifiera eller ge ramarna i ekonomiska termer för hur det förändrade klimatet kan tänkas påverka skogsbruket. Vidare kan det vara styrande för prioritering av fortsatta forskningsarbeten och riskbedömning och för att prioritera åtgärder. Därför har vi försökt utifrån befintlig kunskap idag, konstruera en Tabell över den ekonomiska betydelsen och forskningsbarheten för olika risk/ämnesområden (se Tabell 17 sidan 39). De kanske största effekterna av ett förändrat klimat på ekonomin inom skogsbruket skulle vara om vi lyckas utnyttja den ökade produktionspotentialen. Det förutsätter att vi kan bemästra de negativa effekterna i första hand av en ökad risk för vindfällning, skadeangrepp från insekter och svampar. Mot bakgrund av skogsbrukets stora betydelse som naturresurs och industriell bas, så finner vi att det är viktigt att vi står rustade inför en framtid med såväl ökade hot som nya möjligheter.I denna skrift försöker vi beskriva och analysera tänkbara effekter av ett förändrat klimat på skogen och bedömt deras implikationer för produktionsskogsbruket. Andra aspekter än produktionsaspekter på skogsbruket har inte behandlats. Analysen sker i fyra steg. Vi inleder med att, så långt nuvarande kunskapsläge tillåter, kvantifiera effekterna på den skogliga primärproduktionen – tillväxten i skogen. I ett andra steg omsätts dessa effekter till effekter på produktionsekonomin i ett bestånd. Därefter analyseras tänkbara effekter på risken för stormfällning i skogen. I ett sista steg breddas diskussionen till en något mera spekulativ bild av tänkbara effekter på skogsbrukets ekonomi.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Climate change and the probability of wind damage in two Swedish forests
- 2010
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Ingår i: Forest Ecology and Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0378-1127 .- 1872-7042. ; 259, s. 818-830
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We simulated how possible changes in wind and ground-frost climate and state of the forest due to changes in the future climate may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within one northern and one southern study area in Sweden, respectively. The topography of the study areas was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in the site productivity equal to a relative change in NPP, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of the site index in response to climate change using the model The Forest Time Machine. Global climate change scenarios based on two emission scenarios and one general circulation model were downscaled to the regional level. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the sensitivity of the forest to wind and the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands for the periods 2011–2041 and 2071–2100 and for a control period 1961–1990. This was done while taking into account effects on stability of the forest from expected changes in the occurrence of ground frost. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated for both study areas when adhering to recommended management rules of today. Adding also a changed wind climate further increased the probability of wind damage. Calculated probabilities of wind damage were generally higher in the southern study area than in the northern one and were explained by differences in wind climate and the state of the forests, for example with respect to tree species composition. The indicated increase in sensitivity of the forest to wind under the current management regime, and possibly increasing windiness, motivate further analysis of the effects of different management options on the probability of wind damage and what modifications of Swedish forest management are possibly warranted.
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| 8. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating WINDA : a tool for assessing the probability of wind damage to forest stands
- 2003
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the International Conference Wind Effects on Trees. ; , s. 137-144
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- WINDA is an integrated system of models for calculating the stand-wise probability of wind damage of trees within a landscape (Blennow & Sallnäs, submitted). It integrates a modified version of the dose/response model HWIND (Peltola et al., 1999), the airflow model WASP (Mortensen et al., 1998), and a component for calculating the zero-plane displacement and surface roughness. WINDA uses a GIS for geographical computations. The calculations are made point-wise at exposed stand edges and the results are combined for each stand. The likelihood of damage is calculated using extreme value theory. The mechanistic modelling approach makes WINDA useful for evaluating effects on the probability of wind damage of silvicultural treatments and forestry activities as well as of a changed climate. This paper briefly outlines WINDA and evaluates output by comparing predicted damage with observed damage for two landscapes in southern Sweden.
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| 9. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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”Modul 1 Skogsbruk”. Klimatet och skogen – underlag för nationell forskning
- 2006
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Ingår i: Kungl. Skogs- och Lantbruksakademiens tidskrift. - 0023-5350. ; 145:9, s. 13-18
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Behovet av ny kunskap i anslutning till klimatförändringen är enormt. Det behövs ny kunskap om hur • klimatet kan komma att utvecklas. • skogsekosystemet kan komma att utvecklas. • dessa system interagerar. Detta kunskapsuppbyggande är högst angeläget att påbörja men kommer att ta tid. Många beslut inom skogsbruket måste fattas redan idag utan tillgång till forskningsresultaten. Man tvingas alltså redan nu förhålla sig till ett osäkert klimat. Därför, och för att det trots allt alltid kommer att finnas osäkerhet inför framtiden, vill vi stödja besluten genom att utveckla ett rationellt förhållningssätt till osäkerhet och risk. För att snabbt kunna ta fram praktiskt användbar kunskap vill vi i hög grad utgå från skogliga beslutssituationer när vi väljer vilka problemställningar vi ska hantera inom programmet. Framtagandet av ny kunskap skapar i sig ett problem för riskkommunikation. Kunskapsklyftan i förhållande till mottagaren ökar. Att överbrygga den klyftan är en av de viktigaste faktorerna för att lyckas förändra mottagarens kunskapsläge, och därigenom dennes beteende.
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| 10. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Potential climate change impacts on the probability of wind damage in a south Swedish forest
- 2010
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 99, s. 261-278
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We estimated how the possible changes in wind climate and state of the forest due to climate change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within a forest management unit located in Southern Sweden. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). We incorporated a model relating the site index (SI) to the site productivity into the forest projection model FTM. Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in NPP equal to a relative change in the site productivity, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of SI in response to climate change. We estimated changes in NPP by combining the boreal-adapted BIOMASS model with four regional climate change scenarios calculated using the RCAO model for the period 2071-2100 and two control period scenarios for the period 1961-1990. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands in simulated future states of the forest. The climate change scenarios used represent non-extreme projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. A 15-40% increase in NPP was estimated to result from climate change until the period 2071-2100. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated when the management rules of today were applied. A greater proportion of the calculated change in probability of wind damage was due to changes in wind climate than to changes in the sensitivity of the forest to wind. While regional climate scenarios based on the HadAM3H general circulation model (GCM) indicated no change (SRES A2 emission scenario) or a slightly reduced (SRES B2 emission scenario) probability of wind damage, scenarios based on the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM indicated increased probability of wind damage. The assessment should, however, be reviewed as the simulation of forest growth under climate change as well as climate change scenarios are refined.
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
- Brukas, Vilis, et al.
(författare)
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Decision Support Tools and Strategies to Simulate Forest Landscape Evolutions Integrating Forest Owner Behaviour: A Review from the Case Studies of the European Project, INTEGRAL
- 2017
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 9
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- For forest sustainability and vulnerability assessment, the landscape scale is considered to be more and more relevant as the stand level approaches its known limitations. This review, which describes the main forest landscape simulation tools used in the 20 European case studies of the European project "Future-oriented integrated management of European forest landscapes" (INTEGRAL), gives an update on existing decision support tools to run landscape simulation from Mediterranean to boreal ecosystems. The main growth models and software available in Europe are described, and the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches are discussed. Trades-offs between input efforts and output are illustrated. Recommendations for the selection of a forest landscape simulator are given. The paper concludes by describing the need to have tools that are able to cope with climate change and the need to build more robust indicators for assessment of forest landscape sustainability and vulnerability.
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| 13. |
- Brukas, Vilis, et al.
(författare)
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Forest management plan as a policy instrument: Carrot, stick or sermon?
- 2012
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Ingår i: Land Use Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0264-8377 .- 1873-5754. ; 29, s. 605-613
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Technical aspects of forest management planning as decision-support have been addressed in numerous scientific studies. However, forest management plans (FMPs) also play a significant, but largely neglected, role as forest policy instruments. We have examined the policy context and planning practices in two contrasting case countries, revealing striking differences in policy instrumentation. In Sweden, FMPs mainly serve for informational steering, with under-utilised potential for providing individualised advice. In Lithuania, the plans are primarily regulatory, serving for effective control but with several deficiencies, notably excessive costs and institutionalised corruption. The study demonstrates that policy analyses can be fruitfully grounded in the empirics of planning practices. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 14. |
- Brukas, Vilis, et al.
(författare)
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Linking forest management, policy and biodiversity indicators - A comparison of Lithuania and Southern Sweden
- 2013
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Ingår i: Forest Ecology and Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0378-1127 .- 1872-7042. ; 291, s. 181-189
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lithuania and Southern Sweden share similar natural conditions, but differ considerably in forest policies and management; thereby providing an opportune basis for comparative studies. Since the 1990s, Sweden has attempted to reduce the negative impact of its forest management on biodiversity, after decades of intensive production forestry. In contrast, Lithuania has been intensifying forestry practices associated with the post-soviet socio-economic transition. Here we assess the actual outcomes by comparing selected forest structure and composition variables known to be indicators for forest biodiversity; and estimate the prospective trends by scrutinising current forest policies and management. Our results indicate that Lithuanian forests consistently possessed higher rankings in six indices related to tree species composition, stand age, and deadwood quantities that are positively associated with forest biodiversity. The reverse is indicated by those data on stand age and tree diameter that are associated with centennial dynamics in forest utilisation intensity. With respect to policy instruments, Lithuania designates a substantially greater share of forest area to non-timber functions and legislates more severe management restrictions in forests targeting timber production. Concurrently, all estimates of forestry activities indicate more intensive forest management in Southern Sweden, including a higher share of artificial regeneration and shorter rotations. This allows concluding that, if current forest management practices persist, then an increased “biodiversity gap” may be expected between the two countries. The study concludes with discussing to what degree the identified trends are the direct product of targeted policies versus merely by-products of other factors.
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| 15. |
- Brukas, Vilis, et al.
(författare)
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Resource availability, planning rigidity and Realpolitik in Lithuanian forest utilization
- 2011
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Ingår i: Natural Resources Forum. - : Wiley. - 0165-0203. ; 35, s. 77-88
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As tensions among diverse forest-use interests in Lithuania are on the rise, this study examines the actual resource availability, the underlying planning approaches and the pertinent policy arena. Two 5-year cycles of sampling-based forest inventory provide accurate data showing that the overall timber harvest/increment ratio (or utilization intensity) is 61%. Utilization intensity is similar in state and private forests. It could potentially be raised to 70-80%, with due account for environmental values. Such an increase is inhibited by rigid routines of forest management planning, involving inflexible rotation ages and cutting norms. Age-class analysis indicates that the current planning practice counters its underlying aim of achieving a long-term even flow of timber. According to a survey of key forest stakeholders, those who directly benefit from forest utilization have a weak position in the policy arena, the dominant powers being vested in the national forestry authorities. State forest enterprises have to follow restrictive plans from above, private forest owners are constrained by stern regulations and suffer from the bad image caused by the persistent myth of overuse in private forests. More rational management of Lithuanian forests is hardly possible without major shifts in the institutional set-up accompanied by transformation of the professional ideology.
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| 16. |
- Johansson, Ulf, et al.
(författare)
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Är anpassning av skogsskötseln nödvändigt i dagsläget för att minska skogsskador i ett förändrat klimat?
- 2012
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- En klimatförändring kommer att ändra förutsättningarna för de skogliga ekosystemen, vilketkommer sannolikt att kräva förändrade skogsbruks- och skötselmetoder. I denna rapport har vianalyserat tänkbara strategier för skogsbruket och sätta in dem i ett vidare perspektiv. Ensådan analys måste naturligtvis göras med stor ödmjukhet, eftersom kunskapsläget om vilkaeffekterna kan tänkas bli är dåligt och osäkerheterna kring alla relevanta prognoser är mycketstora.I den första delen av rapporten analyserar vi konsekvenserna av olika skogsskötselalternativpå beståndsnivå: (i) övergång till ett skogsbruk utan gallringar och med omloppstider kortareän de som idag tillämpas, (ii) en successiv övergång till ett lövskogsskogsbruk genom att efterslutavverkning alltid föryngra med löv var det andra alternativet och (iii) övergång tillhögproduktiva exotiska trädslag. De olika alternativen analyserades utifrån en beskrivenklimatförändring och utvärderades i termer av virkesproduktion, ekonomi och skaderisker.I den andra delen av rapporten försöker vi generalisera diskussionen till en regional nivå ochundersöka om slutsatserna blir annorlunda i denna skala. Skogliga analyser på beståndsnivåblir gärna endimensionella, då en funktion eller ett värde analyseras i taget (produktion,ekonomin, rekreation, biodiversitet etc). Tidsperspektivet blir ofta syntetiskt behandlat genomexempelvis val av diskonteringsfaktor i en nuvärdeskalkyl. Skogen som system tillhandahållersamtidigt en mängd varor, tjänster och andra värden. Då det är kombinationen av en mängdbestånd som utgör detta system krävs analyser på systemnivå för att skapa en helhetsbild.Vår förhoppning är att denna rapport leder till ökad kunskap och förståelse för de olikakomplexa samband och avvägningar som det svenska skogsbruket kommer att möta. Ett storttack riktas till forskningsprogrammen Mistra-SWECIA och Future Forests som har finansieratdetta projekt.
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| 17. |
- Jonsson, Ragnar, et al.
(författare)
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Behavioral Modelling in a Decision Support System
- 2015
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Ingår i: Forests. - : MDPI AG. - 1999-4907. ; 6, s. 311-327
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Considering the variety of attitudes, objectives and behaviors characterizing forest owners is crucial for accurately assessing the impact of policy and market drivers on forest resources. A serious shortcoming of existing pan-European Decision Support Systems (DSS) is that they do not account for such heterogeneity, consequently disregarding the effects that this might have on timber supply and forest development. Linking a behavioral harvesting decision model-Expected Value Asymmetries (EVA)-to a forest resource dynamics model-European Forestry Dynamics Model (EFDM)-we provide an example of how forest owner specific characterization can be integrated in a DSS. The simulation results indicate that the approach holds promise as regards accounting for forest owner behavior in simulations of forest resources development. Hence, forest owner heterogeneity makes the distribution of forestland on owner types non-trivial, as it affects harvesting intensity and, subsequently, inter-temporal forest development.
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| 18. |
- Lindbladh, Matts, et al.
(författare)
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A landscape and policy perspective on forest conversion: Long-tailed tit (Aegithalos caudatus) and the allocation of deciduous forests in southern Sweden
- 2011
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Ingår i: European Journal of Forest Research. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1612-4669 .- 1612-4677. ; 130, s. 861-869
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As resources allocated specifically for conservation are limited, there is a need to ensure conservation policy initiatives lead to effective conservation outcomes. In this study, we investigated the potential conservation benefits from alternative spatial allocations of old deciduous stands to a landscape dominated by coniferous production forests owned primarily by non-industrial private forest owners. As a target species, we used the long-tailed tit (Aegithalos caudatus), a species associated with deciduous forests and known to be sensitive to isolation. We used a previously published model based on empirical data on the occurrence of this species, to assess the probability of occurrence of the bird in a 4,000 km(2) area in southern Sweden for which we possess detailed spatial GIS data (kNN data) of tree species composition and age. We assessed alternative scenarios where old deciduous forest was allocated with or without respect to distance from existing old deciduous forests. Due to the long-tailed tit's habitat requirement increasing the amount of old deciduous forests close to existing habitats was the most effective strategy. However, the potential advantages of this strategy may in fact be overturned in favor of the other scenarios if ownership structures and probable uptake rates of policy initiatives are also considered. If a policy initiative is targeted toward owners with properties in close proximity to existing suitable habitat, when compared to if all forest owners are targeted, a higher proportion of owners is needed to participate in order to achieve the same degree of habitat creation for the species. Here, we discuss the potential benefits for effective conservation policy formulation from integrating spatially explicit datasets and detailed ecological knowledge with land-ownership structures and policy uptake scenarios.
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| 19. |
- Lämås, Tomas, et al.
(författare)
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The design and use of forest decision support systems in Sweden
- 2014
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Ingår i: Computer-based tools for supporting forest management: the experience and the expertise world-wide. Computer-based tools for supporting forest management: the experience and the expertise world-wide.. ; , s. 403-418
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 20. |
- Mörtberg, Ulla, et al.
(författare)
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Policy assessment of forest bioenergy options
- 2015
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Bioenergy from forestry is promoted for climate change mitigation, which may increase biodiversity impacts. GIS-based models were applied to estimate bioenergy yields and biodiversity impacts of forest management policy scenarios.
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| 21. |
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| 22. |
- Pang, Xi, et al.
(författare)
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Ecological network assessment of forest bioenergy options using the landscape simulator LandSim : a case study of Kronoberg, southern Sweden
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The need to adapt to climate change as well as to secure the supply of energy has led to a shift in energy consumption from fossil fuel to renewables. In this context, forest biomass is a resource that is increasingly utilised for bioenergy purposes in Sweden, which along with the extraction of industrial wood may conflict with other sustainability goals such as those related to biodiversity conservation. In order to balance between main sustainability objectives, land zoning policies and related management regimes has been proposed, differentiating between the main management categories protected areas, multi-purpose forestry and intensive forestry. The aim of this project was to develop methods and tools for integrated sustainability assessment of forest biomass extraction, in particular from bioenergy and biodiversity perspectives.For this purpose, the landscape simulator LandSim was developed and applied in a case study in Kronoberg County in southern Sweden. Forest growth and management was simulated in 5-year time steps for the period 2010-2110. The management followed two land zoning scenarios, one applying even-aged forestry on all forest land except for protected areas (EAF-tot), and one was applying continuous cover forestry on parts of the forest land, combined with protected areas and a shorter rotation time on the other parts (CCF-int). The outcome of the simulations was raster data on tree species, volume and age for each time step and scenario. From the outcome, harvested volumes and bioenergy feedstock yields were derived. The same outcome was used for an ecological network assessment, using the indicator Equivalent Connected Area (ECA) for two model species tied to mature and old coniferous and southern broadleaved forest, respectively.The results showed that the EAF-tot scenario implied higher yields of biomass feedstock for bioenergy than the CCF-int scenario, while the CCF-int scenario displayed more even yields over the years. By contrast, the CCF-int scenario performed substantially better than the EAF-tot scenario when it came to the ECA indicators. However, the CCF-int scenario involved a range of assumptions mirroring major uncertainties on habitat suitability, which yielded separate results and thus will need further exploration. Moreover, in order to support the model species and related biodiversity components, the forest management would need to allow larger areas to become suitable habitat, as well as to plan for habitat amount and connectivity on landscape scale in order to not only increase habitat size but also ECAs. Conclusively, the modelling framework linking the landscape simulator with the ecological network model could be used for integrated sustainability assessment of bioenergy options, integrating main policy concerns when assessing renewable energy options.
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| 23. |
- Pang, Xi, et al.
(författare)
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Habitat network assessment of forest bioenergy options using the landscape simulator LandSim : A case study of Kronoberg, southern Sweden
- 2017
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Ingår i: Ecological Modelling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-3800 .- 1872-7026. ; 345, s. 99-112
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Forest biomass is a renewable resource that is increasingly utilised for bioenergy purposes in Sweden, which along with the extraction of industrial wood may conflict with biodiversity conservation. The aim of this paper is to present a method for integrated sustainability assessment of forest biomass extraction, particularly from bioenergy and biodiversity perspectives. The landscape simulator LandSim was developed and linked with models for the assessment of biomass yields and habitat networks representing prioritised biodiversity components. It was applied in a case study in Kronoberg County in southern Sweden. Forest growth and management were simulated for the period 2010-2110, following two land zoning scenarios, one applying even-aged forest management on all forest land except for protected areas (EAF-tot), and one applying continuous cover forest management on parts of the forest land, combined with protected areas and an intensified even-aged management on the other parts (CCF-int). The EAF-tot scenario implied higher yields of biomass feedstock for bioenergy, the CCF-int scenario only giving 66% of that yield, while the CCF-int scenario performed substantially better when it came to the habitat network indicators, if habitat suitability was ensured. Conclusively, the case study confirmed that the modelling framework of the LEcA tool, linking the landscape simulator LandSim with the biomass yield assessment and the habitat network model can be used for integrating main policy concerns when assessing renewable energy options.
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| 24. |
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| 25. |
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| 26. |
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| 27. |
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| 28. |
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| 29. |
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| 30. |
- Sallnäs, Ola, et al.
(författare)
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An Area-Based Matrix Model for Uneven-Aged Forests
- 2015
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Ingår i: Forests. - : MDPI AG. - 1999-4907. ; 6, s. 1500-1515
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper a new concept for modeling uneven-aged forests (UEAF) is presented. The term UEAF in this article encloses all forests that deviate from the even-aged structure. The matrix model is area-based, in that the forest under study is described by a distribution of areas over fixed state-spaces spanned by stem number and volume per hectare classes. Dynamics is introduced as transitions of areas inside the state-space during the simulation. Harvesting activities and the occurrence of calamities are explicitly handled. The model is designed to be suitable for large-scale analyses. The concept was tested in an application to Austrian National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Results shown, including a comparison to older inventory data, indicate that it is worth further elaborating on the concept and the model. The work will be continued and in the next step the model concept will be applied in several other countries.
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| 31. |
- Sallnäs, Ola
(författare)
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Regionally specific harvesting residue yield and recovery rates used for energy policy development
- 2012
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We assessed the importance of residue yield rate rho and recovery rate eta for forest biomass recovery. Studies indicate that rho ranges from 20-50% and eta from 60-80%. Estimates of available residues for energy use a combination of both factors. By using reported ranges, we obtained estimates of available biomass for given areas that varied by a factor of three. Yet, energy policies are being developed that use single values of these two factors over large geographic areas.We concluded that the wide range of reported rate values is a function of the combinations of tree form, harvesting systems, and current markets that influence utilization. Thus, more precise estimates of energy from logging residues will require development and use of regionally specific yield and recovery rates. Until rates are developed that are specific for species groups and harvesting systems, conservative values of these rates should be used (rho=20% and eta=60%).
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| 32. |
- Subramanian, Narayanan, et al.
(författare)
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Adaptation of Forest Management Regimes in Southern Sweden to Increased Risks Associated with Climate Change
- 2016
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Ingår i: Forests. - : MDPI AG. - 1999-4907. ; 7:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Even though the growth rates of most tree species in Sweden is expected to increase in the near future as a result of climate change, increased risks of damage by storms and various pests and pathogens, notably root rot and bark beetles, may also occur. Thus, forest management practices such as changes to thinning regimes, reductions in rotation lengths, and switching to other species (native or exotic) may represent adaptive management strategies to increase the resistance and resilience of Swedish forests to climate change. Clearly, thorough analyses examining the effects of anticipated climatic changes on damage levels, and the potentially relieving effects of possible management adaptations are needed before implementing such changes. In this study, damage caused by storms, root rot and bark beetles (single and in various combinations) under selected climate and management scenarios were simulated in Norway spruce (Pice abies L. Karst) stands. The results indicate that reductions in thinning intensity and rotation lengths could improve both volume production and profitability in southern Sweden. In addition, cultivation of rapidly growing species, such as hybrid larch (Larix × marschlinsii Coaz.) and hybrid aspen (Populus tremula L. × P. tremuloides Michx.), could be as profitable as Norway spruce cultivation, or even more profitable. However, slow-growing species, such as Silver birch (Betula pendula Roth), Downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) indicated low economic output in terms of Land Expectation Value.
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| 33. |
- Trubins, Renats, et al.
(författare)
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Categorical mapping from estimates of continuous forest attributes - classification and accuracy
- 2014
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Ingår i: Silva Fennica. - : Finnish Society of Forest Science. - 0037-5330 .- 2242-4075. ; 48
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Spatially explicit data on forest attributes is demanded for various research with landscape perspective. Existing datasets with estimates of continuous forest variables are often used as the basis for producing categorical forest type maps. Normally, this type of maps are used without knowing their accuracy. This paper presents a Bayesian network model for estimating pixel level class membership probabilities of thus derived categorical maps. Class membership probabilities can be used as a post-classification measure of map accuracy and in the process of map classification affecting the assignments of class labels. The method is applied in mapping deciduous dominated forests on the basis of the k-NN Sweden 2005 dataset in a study area in southern Sweden. The results indicate rather low accuracy for deciduous class regardless of the map classification method: 0.48 versus 0.50 in the maps classified without and with the use of the class membership probabilities given equal deciduous area. When probability-based classification is applied, the level of accuracy varies with the assumed map class proportions. Thus, when deciduous class area corresponding to the National Forest Inventory estimate was used, the accuracy of only 0.35 was obtained for the deciduous map class.
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| 34. |
- Trubins, Renats, et al.
(författare)
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Explicating behavioral assumptions in forest scenario modelling - the behavioral matrix approach
- 2019
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Ingår i: Forest Policy and Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 1389-9341 .- 1872-7050. ; 103, s. 70-78
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Forest landscapes are too complex systems for the actors involved in policy making, including experts, to predict the consequences of different management options and policy measures without the aid of modelling tools. Forest sector models and forest management Decision Support Systems (DSS) are two major types of modelling tools that can be used for providing model-based support to forest policy development. Regardless of the modelling tool, policy makers and other concerned actors need to be aware of the behavioral assumptions, or implications, of a scenario in order to proceed to an assessment of what it takes to achieve, alternatively avoid it. A unified method or even a unified understanding of this problem is as yet lacking among forest scenario analysts. This paper presents an approach to facilitate the definition and communication of behavioral assumptions, primarily in DSS-based forest scenario modelling. At the core of the approach is the Behavioral Matrix (BM), a way of structuring forest management specifications. A case study in southern Sweden is presented as an example.
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| 35. |
- Trubins, Renats, et al.
(författare)
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Forest Landscape Development Scenarios (FoLDS)-A framework for integrating forest models, owners' behaviour and socio-economic developments
- 2017
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Ingår i: Forest Policy and Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 1389-9341 .- 1872-7050. ; 85, s. 245-255
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The FoLDS framework presented in this paper is set up to develop scenarios for forested landscapes with a transparent connection between the broad-scale developments in socio-economic factors and the ecosystem services provided. The forests that provide these ecosystem services are managed by a multitude of forest owners. Different forest owners have their own objectives and will thus adjust their forest management differently to socioeconomic developments. The FoLDS framework breaks down the connection from socio-economic developments to the landscape level in three steps. In the first step, a structure is provided for deciding on scenarios combining the socio-economic factors that have most influence on forest owners. In the second step, the scenarios are translated to the distribution of forest management approaches in the landscape by invoking a behavioural matrix of forest owner types and forest management decisions. The third step involves the implementation of these forest management approaches in a forest modelling tool that is tailored to the specific landscape at hand. The results of these calculations are then translated to a set of indicators for the ecosystem services of interest A survey among researchers experienced with the FoLDS framework indicates that there is an added value in systematically including both qualitative and quantitative scenario methods for forested landscapes. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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