| 1. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 2. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 5. |
- Haghighi, Mona, et al.
(författare)
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A Comparison of Rule-based Analysis with Regression Methods in Understanding the Risk Factors for Study Withdrawal in a Pediatric Study
- 2016
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Regression models are extensively used in many epidemiological studies to understand the linkage between specific outcomes of interest and their risk factors. However, regression models in general examine the average effects of the risk factors and ignore subgroups with different risk profiles. As a result, interventions are often geared towards the average member of the population, without consideration of the special health needs of different subgroups within the population. This paper demonstrates the value of using rule-based analysis methods that can identify subgroups with heterogeneous risk profiles in a population without imposing assumptions on the subgroups or method. The rules define the risk pattern of subsets of individuals by not only considering the interactions between the risk factors but also their ranges. We compared the rule-based analysis results with the results from a logistic regression model in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study. Both methods detected a similar suite of risk factors, but the rule-based analysis was superior at detecting multiple interactions between the risk factors that characterize the subgroups. A further investigation of the particular characteristics of each subgroup may detect the special health needs of the subgroup and lead to tailored interventions.
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| 6. |
- Harju, Anne, 1965-
(författare)
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Barns vardag med knapp ekonomi : En studie om barns erfarenheter och strategier
- 2008
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis is about the every day life of children who suffer from economic hardship. The aim is, from the children's point of view, to create an understanding of the consequences that economic hardship has on their relationships with their parents and other children. A further aim is to gain an understanding of how children act in relation to the families' economic situation and how they experience their every day life and general living conditions. Parents have also been interviewed about the families' general living conditions and the interaction between children and parents in relation to the economic situation. The empirical data has been collected over a period of fourteen months. Fourteen children aged 7-19 years and eight parents in seven families have been interviewed on five occasions. A total of 44 interviews have been conducted. The theoretical foundation of the thesis is childhood sociology, symbolic interactionism and social identity. The conclusions of this thesis can be summarized in two major results. The first is that economic hardship is of importance in the relationship with other children and in the interaction between children and their parents. The children's possibilities of participating together with peers through possessions and activities are affected to a varying extent depending on the circumstances. The relationship with their parents is also affected by children having to take economic responsibility and by children cooperating with them. Economic hardship also causes a strain on the relationship. The second major result is that children are active in forming theirs and their families' every day life in relation to the economic limits. On the basis of their understanding and their definition of the situation they choose different strategies, the aims of which are either to live within the limitations of the situation, so-called reactive strategies, or to change their own situation and sometimes also the situation of their household. These are defined as proactive strategies in the thesis.
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| 7. |
- Hiukka, Anne, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term effects of fenofibrate on carotid intima-media thickness and augmentation index in subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus.
- 2008
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Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1558-3597 .- 0735-1097. ; 52:25, s. 2190-7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: The aim of this substudy was to ascertain whether long-term treatment with fenofibrate reduces surrogate measures of atherosclerosis, biomarkers of inflammation, and endothelial activation in patients with type 2 diabetes. BACKGROUND: Some fibrates may decrease cardiovascular events, improve endothelial function, and reduce levels of acute-phase proteins. In the FIELD (Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes) study, fenofibrate failed to decrease the primary end point of coronary events in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: A total of 170 patients with type 2 diabetes of the FIELD Helsinki cohort were randomly assigned to micronized fenofibrate 200 mg/day or placebo in a double-blind design. Carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and the augmentation index (a measure of large artery stiffness) were measured at baseline and at second- and fifth-year visits. Plasma levels of interleukin (IL)-6, C-reactive protein (CRP), serum amyloid A (SAA), secretory phospholipase A2 IIA (SPLA2), E-selectin, vascular cellular adhesion molecule (VCAM)-1, and intercellular adhesion molecule (CAM)-1 were determined by commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kits at the same visits. RESULTS: IMT and the augmentation index increased similarly in both treatment groups during the study. Plasma levels of CRP, IL-6, SPLA2, SAA, VCAM-1, ICAM-1, and E-selectin remained unchanged in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Fenofibrate treatment was not associated with beneficial changes in IMT, augmentation index, or biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial function. (Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes; NCT00132886).
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| 8. |
- Holster, Savanne, 1991-, et al.
(författare)
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The Effect of Allogenic Versus Autologous Fecal Microbiota Transfer on Symptoms, Visceral Perception and Fecal and Mucosal Microbiota in Irritable Bowel Syndrome : A Randomized Controlled Study
- 2019
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Ingår i: Clinical and Translational Gastroenterology. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2155-384X. ; 10:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: Fecal microbiota transfer (FMT) is suggested as a potential treatment for patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). We aimed to study the effect of allogenic and autologous FMT on IBS symptoms, visceral sensitivity, and compositional changes in fecal and mucosa-adherent microbiota.METHODS: Seventeen patients with IBS were randomized either to receive fecal material from a healthy donor (allogenic) or to receive their own fecal material (autologous). The fecal material was administered into the cecum by whole colonoscopy after bowel cleansing.RESULTS: No significant differences were found between the allogenic and the autologous FMT regarding symptom scores. However, symptom scores of patients receiving allogenic fecal material significantly decreased after FMT compared with baseline (P 5 0.02), which was not the case in the autologous group (P50.16). Visceral sensitivity was not affected except for a small beneficial effect on urge scores in the autologous group (P < 0.05). While both fecal and mucosa-adherent microbiota of some patients shifted to their respective donor’s fecal microbiota, some patients showed no relevant microbial changes after allogenic FMT. Large compositional shifts in fecal and mucosa-adherent microbiota also occurred in the autologous group.CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that a single FMT by colonoscopy may have beneficial effects in IBS; however, the allogenic fecal material was not superior to the autologous fecal material. This suggests that bowel cleansing prior to the colonoscopy and/or processing of the fecal material as part of the FMT routine contribute to symptoms and gut microbiota composition changes in IBS.
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| 9. |
- Kaufman, Darrell, et al.
(författare)
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A global database of Holocene paleotemperature records
- 2020
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2052-4463. ; 7:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A comprehensive database of paleoclimate records is needed to place recent warming into the longer-term context of natural climate variability. We present a global compilation of quality-controlled, published, temperature-sensitive proxy records extending back 12,000 years through the Holocene. Data were compiled from 679 sites where time series cover at least 4000 years, are resolved at sub-millennial scale (median spacing of 400 years or finer) and have at least one age control point every 3000 years, with cut-off values slackened in data-sparse regions. The data derive from lake sediment (51%), marine sediment (31%), peat (11%), glacier ice (3%), and other natural archives. The database contains 1319 records, including 157 from the Southern Hemisphere. The multi-proxy database comprises paleotemperature time series based on ecological assemblages, as well as biophysical and geochemical indicators that reflect mean annual or seasonal temperatures, as encoded in the database. This database can be used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of Holocene temperature at global to regional scales, and is publicly available in Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format.
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| 10. |
- Lahti, Leo, et al.
(författare)
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Associations between the human intestinal microbiota, Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG and serum lipids indicated by integrated analysis of high-throughput profiling data
- 2013
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Ingår i: PeerJ. - : PeerJ. - 2167-8359. ; 1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Accumulating evidence indicates that the intestinal microbiota regulates our physiology and metabolism. Bacteria marketed as probiotics confer health benefits that may arise from their ability to affect the microbiota. Here high-throughput screening of the intestinal microbiota was carried out and integrated with serum lipidomic profiling data to study the impact of probiotic intervention on the intestinal ecosystem, and to explore the associations between the intestinal bacteria and serum lipids. We performed a comprehensive intestinal microbiota analysis using a phylogenetic microarray before and after Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG intervention. While a specific increase in the L. rhamnosus-related bacteria was observed during the intervention, no other changes in the composition or stability of the microbiota were detected. After the intervention, lactobacilli returned to their initial levels. As previously reported, also the serum lipid profiles remained unaltered during the intervention. Based on a high-resolution microbiota analysis, intake of L. rhamnosus GG did not modify the composition of the intestinal ecosystem in healthy adults, indicating that probiotics confer their health effects by other mechanisms. The most prevailing association between the gut microbiota and lipid profiles was a strong positive correlation between uncultured phylotypes of Ruminococcus gnavus-group and polyunsaturated serum triglycerides of dietary origin. Moreover, a positive correlation was detected between serum cholesterol and Collinsella (Coriobacteriaceae). These associations identified with the spectrometric lipidome profiling were corroborated by enzymatically determined cholesterol and triglyceride levels. Actinomycetaceae correlated negatively with triglycerides of highly unsaturated fatty acids while a set of Proteobacteria showed negative correlation with ether phosphatidylcholines. Our results suggest that several members of the Firmicutes, Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria may be involved in the metabolism of dietary and endogenous lipids, and provide a scientific rationale for further human studies to explore the role of intestinal microbes in host lipid metabolism.
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| 11. |
- Lederman, Judith S., et al.
(författare)
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Completing the progression establishing an international baseline of primary, middle and secondary students’ views of scientific inquiry
- 2023
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Ingår i: International Journal of Science Education. - : Routledge. - 0950-0693 .- 1464-5289.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Knowledge of scientific inquiry (SI) is considered essential to the development of an individual's Scientific Literacy (SL) and therefore, SI is included in many international science education reform documents. Two previous large scale international studies assessed the SI understandings of students entering middle school and secondary students at the end of their formal K-12 science education. The purpose of this international project was to use the VASI-E to collect data on what primary level students have learned about SI in their first few years of school. This study adds to previous research to bridge the landscape of SI understandings now with representation from primary, middle and high school samples. A total of 4,238 students from 35 countries/regions spanning six continents participated in the study. The results show that globally, primary students are not adequately informed about SI for their age group. However, when compared with the students in the previous international studies (grades seven and 12), the primary students' understandings were surprisingly closer to the levels of understanding of SI of the secondary school students than those in the seventh grade study.
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| 12. |
- Lehtonen, Eveliina, et al.
(författare)
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Use of vitamin D supplements during infancy in an international feeding trial.
- 2014
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Ingår i: Public Health Nutrition. - 1368-9800 .- 1475-2727. ; 17:4, s. 810-22
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To examine the use of vitamin D supplements during infancy among the participants in an international infant feeding trial.DESIGN: Longitudinal study.SETTING: Information about vitamin D supplementation was collected through a validated FFQ at the age of 2 weeks and monthly between the ages of 1 month and 6 months.SUBJECTS: Infants (n 2159) with a biological family member affected by type 1 diabetes and with increased human leucocyte antigen-conferred susceptibility to type 1 diabetes from twelve European countries, the USA, Canada and Australia.RESULTS: Daily use of vitamin D supplements was common during the first 6 months of life in Northern and Central Europe (>80% of the infants), with somewhat lower rates observed in Southern Europe (> 60%). In Canada, vitamin D supplementation was more common among exclusively breast-fed than other infants (e.g., 71% v. 44% at 6 months of age). Less than 2% of infants in the U.S.A. and Australia received any vitamin D supplementation. Higher gestational age, older maternal age and longer maternal education were study-wide associated with greater use of vitamin D supplements.CONCLUSIONS: Most of the infants received vitamin D supplements during the first 6 months of life in the European countries, whereas in Canada only half and in the U.S.A. and Australia very few were given supplementation.
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| 13. |
- Luukkonen, Panu K., et al.
(författare)
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Saturated fat is more metabolically harmful for the human liver than unsaturated fat or simple sugars
- 2018
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Ingår i: Diabetes Care. - : American Diabetes Association. - 1935-5548 .- 0149-5992. ; 41:8, s. 1732-1739
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (i.e., increased intrahepatic triglyceride [IHTG] content), predisposes to type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Adipose tissue lipolysis and hepatic de novo lipogenesis (DNL) are the main pathways contributing to IHTG. We hypothesized that dietary macronutrient composition influences the pathways, mediators, and magnitude of weight gain-induced changes in IHTG. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We overfed 38 overweight subjects (age 48 ± 2 years, BMI 31 ± 1 kg/m2, liver fat 4.7 ± 0.9%) 1,000 extra kcal/day of saturated (SAT) or unsaturated (UNSAT) fat or simple sugars (CARB) for 3 weeks. We measured IHTG (1H-MRS), pathways contributing to IHTG (lipolysis ([2H5]glycerol) and DNL (2H2O) basally and during euglycemic hyperinsulinemia), insulin resistance, endotoxemia, plasma ceramides, and adipose tissue gene expression at 0 and 3 weeks. RESULTS: Overfeeding SAT increased IHTG more (+55%) than UNSAT (+15%, P < 0.05). CARB increased IHTG (+33%) by stimulating DNL (+98%). SAT significantly increased while UNSAT decreased lipolysis. SAT induced insulin resistance and endotoxemia and significantly increased multiple plasma ceramides. The diets had distinct effects on adipose tissue gene expression. CONCLUSIONS: Macronutrient composition of excess energy influences pathways of IHTG: CARB increases DNL, while SAT increases and UNSAT decreases lipolysis. SAT induced the greatest increase in IHTG, insulin resistance, and harmful ceramides. Decreased intakes of SAT could be beneficial in reducing IHTG and the associated risk of diabetes. © 2018 by the American Diabetes Association.
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| 14. |
- Oresic, Matej, 1967-, et al.
(författare)
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Dysregulation of lipid and amino acid metabolism precedes islet autoimmunity in children who later progress to type 1 diabetes
- 2008
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Ingår i: Journal of Experimental Medicine. - New York, USA : Rockefeller University Press. - 0022-1007 .- 1540-9538. ; 205:13, s. 2975-2984
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The risk determinants of type 1 diabetes, initiators of autoimmune response, mechanisms regulating progress toward beta cell failure, and factors determining time of presentation of clinical diabetes are poorly understood. We investigated changes in the serum metabolome prospectively in children who later progressed to type 1 diabetes. Serum metabolite profiles were compared between sample series drawn from 56 children who progressed to type 1 diabetes and 73 controls who remained nondiabetic and permanently autoantibody negative. Individuals who developed diabetes had reduced serum levels of succinic acid and phosphatidylcholine (PC) at birth, reduced levels of triglycerides and antioxidant ether phospholipids throughout the follow up, and increased levels of proinflammatory lysoPCs several months before seroconversion to autoantibody positivity. The lipid changes were not attributable to HLA-associated genetic risk. The appearance of insulin and glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibodies was preceded by diminished ketoleucine and elevated glutamic acid. The metabolic profile was partially normalized after the seroconversion. Autoimmunity may thus be a relatively late response to the early metabolic disturbances. Recognition of these preautoimmune alterations may aid in studies of disease pathogenesis and may open a time window for novel type 1 diabetes prevention strategies.
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| 15. |
- Paone, Paola, et al.
(författare)
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Human milk oligosaccharide 2'-fucosyllactose protects against high-fat diet-induced obesity by changing intestinal mucus production, composition and degradation linked to changes in gut microbiota and faecal proteome profiles in mice.
- 2024
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Ingår i: Gut. - 0017-5749 .- 1468-3288.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To decipher the mechanisms by which the major human milk oligosaccharide (HMO), 2'-fucosyllactose (2'FL), can affect body weight and fat mass gain on high-fat diet (HFD) feeding in mice. We wanted to elucidate whether 2'FL metabolic effects are linked with changes in intestinal mucus production and secretion, mucin glycosylation and degradation, as well as with the modulation of the gut microbiota, faecal proteome and endocannabinoid (eCB) system. Results: 2'FL supplementation reduced HFD-induced obesity and glucose intolerance. These effects were accompanied by several changes in the intestinal mucus layer, including mucus production and composition, and gene expression of secreted and transmembrane mucins, glycosyltransferases and genes involved in mucus secretion. In addition, 2'FL increased bacterial glycosyl hydrolases involved in mucin glycan degradation. These changes were linked to a significant increase and predominance of bacterial genera Akkermansia and Bacteroides, different faecal proteome profile (with an upregulation of proteins involved in carbon, amino acids and fat metabolism and a downregulation of proteins involved in protein digestion and absorption) and, finally, to changes in the eCB system. We also investigated faecal proteomes from lean and obese humans and found similar changes observed comparing lean and obese mice. Conclusion: Our results show that the HMO 2'FL influences host metabolism by modulating the mucus layer, gut microbiota and eCB system and propose the mucus layer as a new potential target for the prevention of obesity and related disorders.
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| 16. |
- Rijal, Dilli P., et al.
(författare)
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Sedimentary ancient DNA shows terrestrial plant richness continuously increased over the Holocene in northern Fennoscandia
- 2021
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Ingår i: Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 7:31
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The effects of climate change on species richness are debated but can be informed by the past. Here, we generated a sedimentary ancient DNA dataset covering 10 lakes and applied novel methods for data harmonization. We assessed the impact of Holocene climate changes and nutrients on terrestrial plant richness in northern Fennoscandia. We find that richness increased steeply during the rapidly warming Early Holocene. In contrast to findings from most pollen studies, we show that richness continued to increase thereafter, although the climate was stable, with richness and the regional species pool only stabilizing during the past three millennia. Furthermore, overall increases in richness were greater in catchments with higher soil nutrient availability. We suggest that richness will increase with ongoing warming, especially at localities with high nutrient availability and assuming that human activity remains low in the region, although lags of millennia may be expected.
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| 17. |
- Sarwar, Nadeem, et al.
(författare)
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Interleukin-6 receptor pathways in coronary heart disease : a collaborative meta-analysis of 82 studies
- 2012
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - New York, NY, USA : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 379:9822, s. 1205-1213
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Persistent inflammation has been proposed to contribute to various stages in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. Interleukin-6 receptor (IL6R) signalling propagates downstream inflammation cascades. To assess whether this pathway is causally relevant to coronary heart disease, we studied a functional genetic variant known to affect IL6R signalling. Methods: In a collaborative meta-analysis, we studied Asp358Ala (rs2228145) in IL6R in relation to a panel of conventional risk factors and inflammation biomarkers in 125 222 participants. We also compared the frequency of Asp358Ala in 51 441 patients with coronary heart disease and in 136 226 controls. To gain insight into possible mechanisms, we assessed Asp358Ala in relation to localised gene expression and to postlipopolysaccharide stimulation of interleukin 6. Findings: The minor allele frequency of Asp358Ala was 39%. Asp358Ala was not associated with lipid concentrations, blood pressure, adiposity, dysglycaemia, or smoking (p value for association per minor allele >= 0.04 for each). By contrast, for every copy of 358Ala inherited, mean concentration of IL6R increased by 34.3% (95% CI 30.4-38.2) and of interleukin 6 by 14.6% (10.7-18.4), and mean concentration of C-reactive protein was reduced by 7.5% (5.9-9.1) and of fibrinogen by 1.0% (0.7-1.3). For every copy of 358Ala inherited, risk of coronary heart disease was reduced by 3.4% (1.8-5.0). Asp358Ala was not related to IL6R mRNA levels or interleukin-6 production in monocytes. Interpretation: Large-scale human genetic and biomarker data are consistent with a causal association between IL6R-related pathways and coronary heart disease.
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| 18. |
- Seppa, Heikki, et al.
(författare)
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Trees tracking a warmer climate: The Holocene range shift of hazel (Corylus avellana) in northern Europe
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Holocene. - : SAGE Publications. - 0959-6836 .- 1477-0911. ; 25:1, s. 53-63
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Palaeoecological records provide a rich source of information to explore how plant distribution ranges respond to climate changes, but their use is complicated by the fact that, especially when based on pollen data, they are often spatially too inaccurate to reliably determine past range limits. To solve this problem, we focus on hazel (Corylus avellana), a tree species with large and heavy fruits (nuts), which provide firm evidence of the local occurrence of species in the past. We combine the fossil nut records of hazel from Fennoscandia, map its maximum distribution range during the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) and compare the fossil record with the Holocene hazel range shift as simulated by the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model. The results show that the current northern range limit of hazel in central and eastern Fennoscandia is constrained by too short growing seasons and too long and cold winters and demonstrate that the species responded to the HTM warming of about 2.5 degrees C (relative to the present) by shifting its range limit up to 63-64 degrees N, reached a rough equilibrium with the HTM climatic conditions and retreated from there to about 60 degrees N during the last 4000 years in response to the late-Holocene cooling. Thus, the projected future warming of about 2.5 degrees C would reverse the long-term southward retraction of species' northern range limit in Europe and is likely to lead to hazel being a common, regeneratively reproductive species up to 63-64 degrees N. In addition to the accuracy of the projected warming, the likelihood of this scenario will depend on inter-specific competition with other tree taxa and the potential of hazel to migrate and its population to grow in balance with the warming. In general, the range dynamics from the HTM to the present suggest a tight climatic control over hazel's range limit in Fennoscandia.
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| 19. |
- Zhou, Bin, et al.
(författare)
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Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10027, s. 1513-1530
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes.Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4372000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-17.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
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