| 1. |
- Fischer, Hubertus, et al.
(författare)
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Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 11:7, s. 474-485
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise.
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| 2. |
- Henriksson, Anders S., et al.
(författare)
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Dimethylsulfide production variations over the past 200 k.y. in the equatorial Atlantic: A first estimate
- 2000
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Ingår i: Geology. - 0091-7613 .- 1943-2682. ; 28:6, s. 499-502
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dimethylsulfide (DMS) released from phytoplankton produces cloud condensation nuclei in the marine troposphere, thereby providing a climate-regulating mechanism by increasing cloud albedo. A 200-k.y.-long sedimentary record from the equatorial Atlantic of DMS-producing phytoplankton suggests that DMS production increased during the glacial stages, thus potentially working to further cool the glacial world. Important factors limiting the operation of this possible feedback mechanism for planetary cooling may be the strength of trade winds and the availability of fine, iron-rich dust needed to fertilize growth of DMS producers.
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| 3. |
- Sarnthein, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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Plateaus and jumps in the atmospheric radiocarbon record - Potential origin and value as global age markers for glacial-to-deglacial paleoceanography, a synthesis
- 2020
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 16:6, s. 2547-2571
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Changes in the geometry of ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are crucial in controlling past changes of climate and the carbon inventory of the atmosphere. However, the accurate timing and global correlation of short-term glacial-to-deglacial changes of MOC in different ocean basins still present a major challenge. The fine structure of jumps and plateaus in atmospheric and planktic radiocarbon (14C) concentration reflects changes in atmospheric 14C production, ocean-atmosphere 14C exchange, and ocean mixing. Plateau boundaries in the atmospheric 14C record of Lake Suigetsu, now tied to Hulu Cave U/Th model ages instead of optical varve counts, provide a stratigraphic "rung ladder" of up to 30 age tie points from 29 to 10 cal ka for accurate dating of planktic oceanic 14C records. The age differences between contemporary planktic and atmospheric 14C plateaus record the global distribution of 14C reservoir ages for surface waters of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and deglacial Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS-1), as documented in 19 and 20 planktic 14C records, respectively. Elevated and variable reservoir ages mark both upwelling regions and high-latitude sites covered by sea ice and/or meltwater. 14C ventilation ages of LGM deep waters reveal opposed geometries of Atlantic and Pacific MOC. Like today, Atlantic deep-water formation went along with an estuarine inflow of old abyssal waters from the Southern Ocean up to the northern North Pacific and an outflow of upper deep waters. During early HS-1, 14C ventilation ages suggest a reversed MOC and ĝ1/41500-year flushing of the deep North Pacific up to the South China Sea, when estuarine circulation geometry marked the North Atlantic, gradually starting near 19 ka. High 14C ventilation ages of LGM deep waters reflect a major drawdown of carbon from the atmosphere. The subsequent major deglacial age drop reflects changes in MOC accompanied by massive carbon releases to the atmosphere as recorded in Antarctic ice cores. These new features of MOC and the carbon cycle provide detailed evidence in space and time to test and refine ocean models that, in part because of insufficient spatial model resolution and reference data, still poorly reproduce our data sets.
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