| 1. |
- Conley, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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Hypoxia-Related Processes in the Baltic Sea
- 2009
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Ingår i: Environmental Science and Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 43:10, s. 3412-3420
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hypoxia, a growing worldwide problem, has been intermittently present in the modern Baltic Sea since its formation ca. 8000 cal. yr BP. However, both the spatial extent and intensity of hypoxia have increased with anthropogenic eutrophication due to nutrient inputs. Physical processes, which control stratification and the renewal of oxygen in bottom waters, are important constraints on the formation and maintenance of hypoxia. Climate controlled inflows of saline water from the North Sea through the Danish Straits is a critical controlling factor governing the spatial extent and duration of hypoxia. Hypoxia regulates the biogeochemical cycles of both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in the water column and sediments. Significant amounts of P are currently released from sediments, an order of magnitude larger than anthropogenic inputs. The Baltic Sea is unique for coastal marine ecosystems experiencing N losses in hypoxic waters below the halocline. Although benthic communities in the Baltic Sea are naturally constrained by salinity gradients, hypoxia has resulted in habitat loss over vast areas and the elimination of benthic fauna, and has severely disrupted benthic food webs. Nutrient load reductions are needed to reduce the extent, severity, and effects of hypoxia.
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| 2. |
- Ehrnsten, Eva, et al.
(författare)
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Understanding Environmental Changes in Temperate Coastal Seas : Linking Models of Benthic Fauna to Carbon and Nutrient Fluxes
- 2020
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-7745. ; 7
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Coastal seas are highly productive systems, providing an array of ecosystem services to humankind, such as processing of nutrient effluents from land and climate regulation. However, coastal ecosystems are threatened by human-induced pressures such as climate change and eutrophication. In the coastal zone, the fluxes and transformations of nutrients and carbon sustaining coastal ecosystem functions and services are strongly regulated by benthic biological and chemical processes. Thus, to understand and quantify how coastal ecosystems respond to environmental change, mechanistic modeling of benthic biogeochemical processes is required. Here, we discuss the present model capabilities to quantitatively describe how benthic fauna drives nutrient and carbon processing in the coastal zone. There are a multitude of modeling approaches of different complexity, but a thorough mechanistic description of benthic-pelagic processes is still hampered by a fundamental lack of scientific understanding of the diverse interactions between the physical, chemical and biological processes that drive biogeochemical fluxes in the coastal zone. Especially shallow systems with long water residence times are sensitive to the activities of benthic organisms. Hence, including and improving the description of benthic biomass and metabolism in sediment diagenetic as well as ecosystem models for such systems is essential to increase our understanding of their response to environmental changes and the role of coastal sediments in nutrient and carbon cycling. Major challenges and research priorities are (1) to couple the dynamics of zoobenthic biomass and metabolism to sediment reactive-transport in models, (2) to test and validate model formulations against real-world data to better incorporate the context-dependency of processes in heterogeneous coastal areas in models and (3) to capture the role of stochastic events.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Gustafsson, Bo G., et al.
(författare)
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Reconstructing the Development of Baltic Sea Eutrophication 1850-2006
- 2012
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 41:6, s. 534-548
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A comprehensive reconstruction of the Baltic Sea state from 1850 to 2006 is presented: driving forces are reconstructed and the evolution of the hydrography and biogeochemical cycles is simulated using the model BALTSEM. Driven by high resolution atmospheric forcing fields (HiResAFF), BALTSEM reproduces dynamics of salinity, temperature, and maximum ice extent. Nutrient loads have been increasing with a noteworthy acceleration from the 1950s until peak values around 1980 followed by a decrease continuing up to present. BALTSEM shows a delayed response to the massive load increase with most eutrophic conditions occurring only at the end of the simulation. This is accompanied by an intensification of the pelagic cycling driven by a shift from spring to summer primary production. The simulation indicates that no improvement in water quality of the Baltic Sea compared to its present state can be expected from the decrease in nutrient loads in recent decades.
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| 5. |
- Isaev, A. V., et al.
(författare)
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Model estimates of the impact of bioirrigation activity of Marenzelleria spp. on the Gulf of Finland ecosystem in a changing climate
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Marine Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0924-7963 .- 1879-1573. ; 171, s. 81-88
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Drastic changes have occurred in the Eastern Gulf of Finland ecosystem after recent invasion and establishment of polychaete Marenzelleria spp. Possible mechanisms of these changes are explored with the help of three-dimensional ecosystem model SPBEM. Relative significance of bioirrigation activity is studied by comparison of two climate change scenario simulations, which include or disregard Marenzelleria effects. The novel results obtained with this approach demonstrate that on a system level biogeochemical consequences of both implemented climate changes scenario and polychaete activity are equivalent to a weakening of vicious circle of the Baltic Sea eutrophication. The eutrophication-mitigating effects of the Marenzelleria invasion into the Eastern Gulf of Finland, revealed by the long-term field measurements, are explained by simulation-based considerations.
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| 6. |
- Kahru, Mati, et al.
(författare)
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Changing seasonality of the Baltic Sea
- 2016
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 13:4, s. 1009-1018
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Changes in the phenology of physical and ecological variables associated with climate change are likely to have significant effect on many aspects of the Baltic ecosystem. We apply a set of phenological indicators to multiple environmental variables measured by satellite sensors for 17-36 years to detect possible changes in the seasonality in the Baltic Sea environment. We detect significant temporal changes, such as earlier start of the summer season and prolongation of the productive season, in several variables ranging from basic physical drivers to ecological status indicators. While increasing trends in the absolute values of variables like sea-surface temperature (SST), diffuse attenuation of light (Ked490) and satellite-detected chlorophyll concentration (CHL) are detectable, the corresponding changes in their seasonal cycles are more dramatic. For example, the cumulative sum of 30 000 W m(-2) of surface incoming short-wave irradiance (SIS) was reached 23 days earlier in 2014 compared to the beginning of the time series in 1983. The period of the year with SST of at least 17 degrees C has almost doubled (from 29 days in 1982 to 56 days in 2014), and the period with Ked490 over 0.4 m(1) has increased from about 60 days in 1998 to 240 days in 2013 -i.e., quadrupled. The period with satellite-estimated CHL of at least 3 mg m(-3) has doubled from approximately 110 days in 1998 to 220 days in 2013. While the timing of both the phytoplankton spring and summer blooms have advanced, the annual CHL maximum that in the 1980s corresponded to the spring diatom bloom in May has now shifted to the summer cyanobacteria bloom in July.
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| 7. |
- Kuliński, Karol, et al.
(författare)
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Biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea
- 2022
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Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 13, s. 633-685
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Location, specific topography, and hydrographic setting together with climate change and strong anthropogenic pressure are the main factors shaping the biogeochemical functioning and thus also the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. The recent decades have brought significant changes in the Baltic Sea. First, the rising nutrient loads from land in the second half of the 20th century led to eutrophication and spreading of hypoxic and anoxic areas, for which permanent stratification of the water column and limited ventilation of deep-water layers made favourable conditions. Since the 1980s the nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea have been continuously decreasing. This, however, has so far not resulted in significant improvements in oxygen availability in the deep regions, which has revealed a slow response time of the system to the reduction of the land-derived nutrient loads. Responsible for that is the low burial efficiency of phosphorus at anoxic conditions and its remobilization from sediments when conditions change from oxic to anoxic. This results in a stoichiometric excess of phosphorus available for organic-matter production, which promotes the growth of N2-fixing cyanobacteria and in turn supports eutrophication. This assessment reviews the available and published knowledge on the biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea. In its content, the paper covers the aspects related to changes in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (C, N, and P) external loads, their transformations in the coastal zone, changes in organic-matter production (eutrophication) and remineralization (oxygen availability), and the role of sediments in burial and turnover of C, N, and P. In addition to that, this paper focuses also on changes in the marine CO2 system, the structure and functioning of the microbial community, and the role of contaminants for biogeochemical processes. This comprehensive assessment allowed also for identifying knowledge gaps and future research needs in the field of marine biogeochemistry in the Baltic Sea. Copyright:
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| 8. |
- Lehtoranta, Jouni, et al.
(författare)
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Atmospheric forcing controlling inter-annual nutrient dynamics in the open Gulf of Finland
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Marine Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0924-7963 .- 1879-1573. ; 171, s. 4-20
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The loading of P into the Gulf of Finland has decreased markedly, but no overall trend in the concentration of P has been observed in the open Gulf, where the concentrations of both inorganic N and P still have a pronounced inter annual variability. Our main aim was to study whether the internal processes driven by atmospheric forcing can explain the variation in the nutrient conditions in the Gulf during the period 1992-2014. We observed that the long-term salinity variation of the bottom water in the northern Baltic Proper controls that in the Gulf, and that the deep-water concentrations of oxygen and nutrients are significantly correlated between the basins. This imposes preconditions regarding how atmospheric forcing may influence deep water flows and stratification in the Gulf on a long-term scale. We found that over short timescales, winter winds in particular can control the in- and outflows of water and the vertical stratification and mixing, which to a large extent explained the inter-annual variation in the DIN and TP pools in the Gulf. We conclude that the inter-annual variation in the amounts, ratios, and spatial distribution of nutrients sets variable preconditions for the spring and potential blue-green algae blooms, and that internal processes were able to mask the effects of the P load reductions implemented across the whole Gulf. The transportation of P along the bottom from the northern Baltic Proper and its evident uplift in the Gulf highlights the fact that the nutrient reductions are also needed in the entire catchment of the Baltic Sea to improve the trophic status of the open Gulf.
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| 9. |
- Meier, H. E. Markus, et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of Eutrophication Abatement Scenarios for the Baltic Sea by Multi-Model Ensemble Simulations
- 2018
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-7745. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To assess the impact of the implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) on the future environmental status of the Baltic Sea, available uncoordinated multi-model ensemble simulations for the Baltic Sea region for the twenty-first century were analyzed. The scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data using several regional climate system models and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air- and river-borne nutrient load scenarios following either reference conditions or the BSAP. To estimate uncertainties in projections, the largest ever multi-model ensemble for the Baltic Sea comprising 58 transient simulations for the twenty-first century was assessed. Data from already existing simulations from different projects including regionalized GCM simulations of the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change based on the corresponding Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects, CMIP3 and CMIP5, were collected.Various strategies to weigh the ensemble members were tested and the results for ensemble mean changes between future and present climates are shown to be robust with respect to the chosen metric. Although (1) the model simulations during the historical period are of different quality and (2) the assumptions on nutrient load levels during present and future periods differ between models considerably, the ensemble mean changes in biogeochemical variables in the Baltic proper with respect to nutrient load reductions are similar between the entire ensemble and a subset consisting only of the most reliable simulations.Despite the large spread in projections, the implementation of the BSAP will lead to a significant improvement of the environmental status of the Baltic Sea according to both weighted and unweighted ensembles. The results emphasize the need for investigating ensembles with many members and rigorous assessments of models’ performance.
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| 10. |
- Meier, H. E. Markus, et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea
- 2019
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-7745. ; 6
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Following earlier regional assessment studies, such as the Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin and the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment, knowledge acquired from available literature about future scenario simulations of biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea and their uncertainties is assessed. The identification and reduction of uncertainties of scenario simulations are issues for marine management. For instance, it is important to know whether nutrient load abatement will meet its objectives of restored water quality status in future climate or whether additional measures are required. However, uncertainties are large and their sources need to be understood to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of measures. The assessment of sources of uncertainties in projections of biogeochemical cycles based on authors' own expert judgment suggests that the biggest uncertainties are caused by (1) unknown current and future bioavailable nutrient loads from land and atmosphere, (2) the experimental setup (including the spin up strategy), (3) differences between the projections of global and regional climate models, in particular, with respect to the global mean sea level rise and regional water cycle, (4) differing model-specific responses of the simulated biogeochemical cycles to long-term changes in external nutrient loads and climate of the Baltic Sea region, and (5) unknown future greenhouse gas emissions. Regular assessments of the models' skill (or quality compared to observations) for the Baltic Sea region and the spread in scenario simulations (differences among projected changes) as well as improvement of dynamical downscaling methods are recommended.
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| 11. |
- Meier, H. E. Markus, et al.
(författare)
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Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management
- 2014
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 43:1, s. 37-48
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.
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| 12. |
- Meier, H. E. Markus, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea : A Multi-Model Ensemble Study
- 2012
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 41:6, s. 558-573
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.
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| 13. |
- Meier, Markus, et al.
(författare)
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Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic sea ecosystem first results from multi model ensemble simulations
- 2012
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 7:3, s. 034005-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850-2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850-2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961-2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air-and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic 'business-as-usual' to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.
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| 14. |
- Meier, Markus, et al.
(författare)
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Hypoxia in future climates : a model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea
- 2011
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 38, s. L24608-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using an ensemble of coupled physical-biogeochemical models driven with regionalized data from global climate simulations we are able to quantify the influence of changing climate upon oxygen conditions in one of the numerous coastal seas (the Baltic Sea) that suffers worldwide from eutrophication and from expanding hypoxic zones. Applying various nutrient load scenarios we show that under the impact of warming climate hypoxic and anoxic areas will very likely increase or at best only slightly decrease (in case of optimistic nutrient load reductions) compared to present conditions, regardless of the used global model and climate scenario. The projected decreased oxygen concentrations are caused by (1) enlarged nutrient loads due to increased runoff, (2) reduced oxygen flux from the atmosphere to the ocean due to increased temperature, and (3) intensified internal nutrient cycling. In future climate a similar expansion of hypoxia as projected for the Baltic Sea can be expected also for other coastal oceans worldwide.
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| 15. |
- Neumann, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate
- 2012
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 41:6, s. 574-585
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.
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| 16. |
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| 17. |
- Ruoho-Airola, Tuija, et al.
(författare)
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Atmospheric Nutrient Input to the Baltic Sea from 1850 to 2006 : A Reconstruction from Modeling Results and Historical Data
- 2012
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 41:6, s. 549-557
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, a consistent basin-wise monthly time series of the atmospheric nutrient load to the Baltic Sea during 1850-2006 was compiled. Due to the lack of a long time series (1850-1960) of nutrient deposition to the Baltic Sea, the data set was compiled by combining a time series of deposition data at the Baltic Nest Institute from 1970 to 2006, published historical monitoring data and deposition estimates, as well as recent modeled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission estimates. The procedure for nitrogen compounds included estimation of the deposition in a few intermediate reference years, linear interpolation between them, and the decomposition of annual deposition into a seasonal deposition pattern. As no reliable monitoring results were found for the atmospheric deposition of phosphorus during the early period of our study, we used published estimates for the temporal and spatial pattern of the phosphorus load.
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| 18. |
- Ryabchenko, V. A., et al.
(författare)
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Model estimates of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea in the contemporary and future climate
- 2016
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Ingår i: Oceanology. - 0001-4370 .- 1531-8508. ; 56:1, s. 36-45
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The St. Petersburg Baltic eutrophication model (SPBEM) is used to assess the ecological condition of the sea under possible changes in climate and nutrient loads in the 21st century. According to model estimates, in the future climate water quality will worsen, compared to modern conditions. This deterioration is stronger in the climate warming scenario with a stronger change in future near-surface air temperature. In the considered scenarios of climate change, climate warming will lead to an increase in the area of anoxic and hypoxic zones. Reduction of nutrient loading, estimated in accordance with the Baltic Sea Action Plan, will only be able to partially compensate for the negative effects of global warming.
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| 19. |
- Savchuk, Oleg P., et al.
(författare)
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BALTSEM - a marine model for decision support within the Baltic Sea Region
- 2012
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A longstanding recognition of eutrophication as the most common threat to the entire Baltic Sea has led to the international agreement on nutrient load reductions within the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The nutrient load reductions were based on quantitative estimates of the “maximum allowed nutrient inputs” evaluated with a help of the decision support system (DSS) Baltic Nest developed within the MARE (Marine Research on Eutrophication) program.As demonstrated by a comparison to available data derived from observations, the marine biogeochemical model SANBALTS (Simple As Necessary Baltic Long-Term large-Scale) used in this evaluationis capable to realistically simulate both contemporary and pre-industrial trophic states of the Baltic Sea. A key to successful performance of SANBALTS lays in accounting for major sources and sinks that determine the size of internal nutrient pools and, thus, govern the large scale Baltic Sea eutrophication. Particularly, the most important phenomena that have to be reproduced by eutrophication models are a) spatial gradients of environmental conditions and limiting nutrients, b) interconnectivity of the major Baltic Sea basins, c) sporadic ventilation of the hypoxia prone deep-water layers with saltwater inflows, d) redox alterations of the coupled nitrogen and phosphorusbiogeochemical cycles, and d) nitrogen fixationby cyanobacteria.At the same time, both a ratherhigh aggregation of ecosystem variables (organic and inorganic forms of nutrients without explicit description of biota) and their correspondent spatial-temporal averaging (annual within homogeneous basins) implemented in SANBALTS make this model not appropriate enough for further revision and elaboration of the BSAP.Because such revision has also to take into consideration indicators required by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) of the European Union and characterized by higher spatial and temporal resolution, e.g.basin-wise winter surface nutrient concentrations and summer phytoplankton biomasses, and because of a necessity to factor in the possible effects of climate fluctuations, the appropriate model must simulate changes in ecosystem seasonal dynamics occurring over tens of years in response to both nutrient load reductions and climate changes. In principle, the continuing development of computing resources has made it feasible to implement for such purposes three-dimensional coupled physical-biogeochemical models with a relatively high resolution.However, with such models a simulation of the entire Baltic Sea over several decades still requires many days of computation even at super computer centers, which greatly hinders numerical experimentation needed for both model calibration and sensitivity analysis, including scenario responses. Therefore, there is a need for the model that is both reliable and convenient enough to be used for the revision of BSAP and implementation of MSFD,as well as for similar managerial tasks within an ecosystem approach. To serve this need, the model should be computationally fast for allowing multiple numerical runs necessary for finding and testing suitable distributions of the water-protection measures. Furthermore, for a building of credibility necessary in the national deliberations and international negotiations it should also be publicly accessible through the decision support system Nest allowing to any interested party running hindcast and scenario experiments as well as visualize its results. For these purposes, we present here the latest developments of the BAltic sea Long-Term large Scale Eutrophication Model (BALTSEM), which captures the main features of the Baltic Sea eutrophication, and now servesas a next generation marine model in the Baltic Nest system. These results as well as hindcast for 1850-2006 and future scenarios can be reproduced and analyzed on-line. Since BALTSEM performance at long-term scales has already been presented by Eilola et al. (2011a) and Gustafsson et al. (2012), this paper is especially focused on a seasonal scale.
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| 20. |
- Savchuk, Oleg P., et al.
(författare)
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External nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, 1970-2006
- 2012
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Any research related to nutrient biogeochemistry of the Baltic Sea, especially studies of eutrophication requires knowledge of the long-term dynamics of external nutrient inputs. Information accumulated in the HELCOM’s pollution load compilations is too aggregated and, until recently, covered only specific years. On the other hand, national datasets with higher resolutions are often difficult to access. Therefore, over the years considerable efforts have been put into a compilation of consistent estimates of nutrient input to the entire Baltic Sea.Excluding exchange with the Skagerrak from this report, the external nutrient input is considered here as consisting of three component parts: waterborne land loads, direct point sources at the coasts, and atmospheric depositions.The present reconstruction of time series of these three components is based on three major sources. The compilation of the land loads database has started within the project “Large-scale Environmental Effects and Ecological Processes in the Baltic Sea, 1990-1995” (Wulff et al., 2001c), continued during the MARE (“Marine Research on Eutrophication, 1999-2006”) project (Wulff et al., 2001a, Eriksson Hägg et al., 2010), and was most recently updated and expanded in connection with the latest HELCOM’s activities on the pollution load compilation (HELCOM, 2011) and the revision of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP, Wulff et al., 2009). However, there is an important difference between information contained in the HELCOM publications and the data presented here.By its very international nature HELCOM has to deal with whatever data are officially provided by the contracting parties, ending up with certain gaps and inconsistencies in the data sets (e.g. see discussion in HELCOM, 2011). On the other hand, considering eutrophication as an imbalance in the large-scale nutrient cycles, whereby more nutrients come into the system than leave it (e.g. Savchuk and Wulff, 2009 and references therein), we need to know the total amounts of external input as close to the reality as possible. Therefore, in our reconstructions we have been trying to both fill such gaps in and correct possible sources of inconsistencies. The reconstructed data sets have extensively been used by ourselves for various nutrient budget estimates (e.g. Wulff et al., 2001b, Savchuk, 2005) and as the boundary conditions for biogeochemical models (e.g. Savchuk and Wulff, 2007, 2009) including development of the eutrophication segment of BSAP (Wulff, 2007), as well as by many researchers around the Baltic Sea, for instance, within several projects of the BONUS+ research programme (e.g.Eilola et al., 2011; Eriksson Hägg et al., 2011; Meier et al., 2011).The implemented nutrient inputs have naturally been described in these publications, but briefly. In order to facilitate afurther distribution of reconstructed inputs and their usage, here we describe the process of reconstruction in more detail and make available the full data sets in digital form.The data used for the reconstruction have kindly been provided by several institutions and agencies around the Baltic Sea (see below) as well as directly by HELCOM during preparation of PLC-4 and PLC-5 (see HELCOM, 2004, 2011). Since not all data providershad given the permission to distribute the original raw measurements, we have here 3 aggregated all the inputs according to the spatial segmentation of the Baltic Sea (Fig.1) currently implemented in the biogeochemical model BALTSEM (BAltic sea Long-Term large Scale Eutrophication Model). Note also that some part of riverine inputs is available in a decision support system Baltic Nest with a much higher spatial resolution, as is further explained below.
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| 21. |
- Savchuk, Oleg P., et al.
(författare)
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Long-term modeling of large-scale nutrient cycles in the entire Baltic Sea
- 2009
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Ingår i: Hydrobiologia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0018-8158 .- 1573-5117. ; 629, s. 209-224
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Management of eutrophication in marine ecosystems requires a good understanding of nutrient cycles at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Here, it is shown that the biogeochemical processes controlling large-scale eutrophication of the Baltic Sea can be described with a fairly aggregated model: simple as necessary Baltic long-term large scale (SANBALTS). This model simulates the dynamics of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silica driven by the external inputs, the major physical transports, and the internal biogeochemical fluxes within the seven major sub-basins. In a long-term hindcast (1970–2003), the model outputs reasonably matched observed concentrations and fluxes. The model is also tested in a scenario where nutrient inputs are reduced to levels that existed over 100 years ago. The simulated response of the Baltic Sea trophic state to this very large reduction is verified by a similar simulation made with a much more complex process-oriented model. Both models indicate that after initial, rather rapid changes the system goes into much slower evolution, and nutrient cycles would not become balanced even after 130 years.
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| 22. |
- Savchuk, Oleg P., et al.
(författare)
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Long-term reconstruction of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, 1850-2006
- 2012
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A common intention in ecosystem approach to management of marine resources worldwide has become a ‘restoration of ecosystems’ to some better shape. Although appealing, this political, rather vague aim has to be made more precise in order to be useful as a management objective. Therefore, a crucial role in defining EO, EQS, ES, ET, and similar characteristics set forward by, e.g. BSAP, MSFD, ND, UWWTD, and WFD as well as by many other acronyms to come, belongs to some conventional numbers that are considered as representing so-called background or reference conditions, which existed before significant man-made disturbances. At the Baltic Sea, experiencing human influence for centuries, quantification of the reference conditions and designing of desired state of restored marine ecosystems is complicated by both the uncertainty of which past times might be considered as reference times and the lack of essential observations from those times. One of the major, if not the only reliable method for reconstruction of the reference trophic state is it’s simulation with biogeochemical models forced by the appropriate boundary conditions, including external nutrient inputs corresponding to the reference time interval. Once reconstructed, estimates of such “pristine” or, better to say, “pre-industrial” loads and their historical development can also be used both to test models’ capabilities in reproducing pre-eutrophied state of the Baltic Sea and to study the very development of its eutrophication. Plausible solution of these problems gives more credibility to simulated responses of the marine ecosystems to scenarios of load reductions. For the Baltic Sea, such approach was initiated by Schernewski and Neumann (2005) and Savchuk et al. (2008) and further developed in the ECOSUPPORT Project (Gustafsson et al., 2012), where also a reconstruction of nutrient inputs since 1850 was briefly described. In order to facilitate distribution of reconstructed inputs and their usage, here we describe the process of reconstruction in more detail and make available the full data sets in digital form. The reconstructed external nutrient inputs comprise two periods. Land loads and atmospheric deposition in 1970-2006 are based on the best available data with sufficiently high coverage and resolution (Savchuk et al., 2012), while temporal dynamics over 1850-1970 were interpolated between estimates prescribed for a few fixed years. Similarly to the dataset for 1970-2006, the reconstructed inputs are aggregated according to the spatial segmentation of the Baltic Sea (Fig. 1) currently implemented in the biogeochemical model BALTSEM (BAltic sea Long-Term large Scale Eutrophication Model).
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| 23. |
- Savchuk, Oleg P., et al.
(författare)
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The Baltic Sea a century ago – a reconstruction from model simulations, verified by observations.
- 2008
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Ingår i: Journal of Marine Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0924-7963. ; 74, s. 485-494
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- “Pre-industrial” trophic conditions in the Baltic Sea were simulated with SANBALTS (Simple As Necessary BAltic Long-Term large Scale) model. External nutrient inputs to the major basins of the Baltic Sea a century ago were reconstructed from various literature and data sources. The reconstructed input of total nitrogen was less than a half and that of total phosphorus was about a third of their contemporary values. The simulated “pre-industrial” conditions are validated by comparison to actual historical data on the water transparency, oxygen concentration, primary production, and net sediment accumulation. The “pre-industrial” trophic state could have been more phosphorus limited than today because simulated basin-wide annual averages of dissolved inorganic phosphorus concentrations of 0.06–0.3 µM P are about 40–80% of their present day values, while dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations of 2–4 µM N are almost the same as today or even slightly higher.
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| 24. |
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