| 1. |
- Barrett, Scott, et al.
(författare)
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Social dimensions of fertility behavior and consumption patterns in the Anthropocene
- 2020
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 117:12, s. 6300-6307
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We consider two aspects of the human enterprise that profoundly affect the global environment: population and consumption. We show that fertility and consumption behavior harbor a class of externalities that have not been much noted in the literature. Both are driven in part by attitudes and preferences that are not egoistic but socially embedded; that is, each household's decisions are influenced by the decisions made by others. In a famous paper, Garrett Hardin [G. Hardin, Science 162, 1243-1248 (1968)] drew attention to overpopulation and concluded that the solution lay in people abandoning the freedom to breed. That human attitudes and practices are socially embedded suggests that it is possible for people to reduce their fertility rates and consumption demands without experiencing a loss in wellbeing. We focus on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa and consumption in the rich world and argue that bottom-up social mechanisms rather than top-down government interventions are better placed to bring about those ecologically desirable changes.
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| 2. |
- Calderón-Contreras, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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A regional PECS node built from place-based social-ecological sustainability research in Latin America and the Caribbean
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ecosystems and People. - : Informa UK Limited. - 2639-5908 .- 2639-5916. ; 18:1, s. 1-14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sustainability requires a combination of meaningful co-production of locally relevant solutions, synthesis of insights gained across regions, and increased cooperation between science, policy and practice. The Programme for Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) has been coordinating Place-Based Social-Ecological Sustainability Research (PBSESR) across the globe and emphasizes the need for regional scientific nodes from diverse biocultural regions to inform sustainability science and action. In this paper, we assess the strengths of the PBSESR communities in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). We provide an overview of PBSESR literature associated with this region and highlight the achievements of two prominent regional networks: The Social-Ecological Systems and Sustainability Research Network from Mexico (SocioEcoS) and the South American Institute for Resilience and Sustainability Studies from Uruguay (SARAS Institute). Finally, we identify the potential in these nodes to constitute a regional PECS node in Latin America and discuss the capacity needed to ensure such function. The results of the literature review show that while still loosely interconnected across the region, networks play key roles in connecting otherwise cloistered teams and we illustrate how the SocioEcoS network (focusing on transdisciplinary co-production of knowledge towards sustainability) and the SARAS Institute (focusing on innovative approaches for looking at complex social-ecological problems, rooted in slow science and arts) operate as key connectors in the region. We conclude that these organizations combined can embody a Latin American node for PECS, and would thereby not only contribute to regional but also global capacities to advance the sustainability agenda.
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| 3. |
- Carpenter, Stephen R., et al.
(författare)
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Allowing variance may enlarge the safe operating space for exploited ecosystems
- 2015
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 112:46, s. 14384-14389
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Variable flows of food, water, or other ecosystem services complicate planning. Management strategies that decrease variability and increase predictability may therefore be preferred. However, actions to decrease variance over short timescales (2-4 y), when applied continuously, may lead to long-term ecosystem changes with adverse consequences. We investigated the effects of managing short-term variance in three well-understood models of ecosystem services: lake eutrophication, harvest of a wild population, and yield of domestic herbivores on a rangeland. In all cases, actions to decrease variance can increase the risk of crossing critical ecosystem thresholds, resulting in less desirable ecosystem states. Managing to decrease short-term variance creates ecosystem fragility by changing the boundaries of safe operating spaces, suppressing information needed for adaptive management, cancelling signals of declining resilience, and removing pressures that may build tolerance of stress. Thus, the management of variance interacts strongly and inseparably with the management of resilience. By allowing for variation, learning, and flexibility while observing change, managers can detect opportunities and problems as they develop while sustaining the capacity to deal with them.
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| 4. |
- Carpenter, Stephen R., et al.
(författare)
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Dancing on the volcano : social exploration in times of discontent
- 2019
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 24:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Radical recent developments such as Brexit, the rise of extreme nationalism, the gilets jaunes, polarizing leaders, the Arab Spring, and fundamentalist movements are indications of societal discontent with the status quo. Other societal phenomena such as gender fluidity, veganism, and bartering are also associated with a perceived need to change. The context is the Anthropocene, a humandominated biosphere challenging the resilience of a livable planet. Such a broad set of developments may be interpreted in the light of new insights from theory of complex systems about what happens as resilience of the current pathway (societal organization as we know it) decreases. Rising fluctuations characterize a phase of uncertainty and exploration, potentially leading into a transition of the system toward a new pathway. We reflect on global changes that may contribute to social destabilization such as rising wealth concentration and environmental degradation and ask how responses may be understood from social-psychological forces such as the need for group identity and managing the terror of mortality. The emerging image is that of a society engaged in multifaceted experimentation. Maintaining such experimentation may help inspire novel pathways to desirable futures, but there is a risk of societies becoming trapped in backward-looking narratives that threaten long-term sustainable outcomes.
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| 5. |
- Carpenter, Stephen R., et al.
(författare)
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Resilience : Accounting for the Noncomputable
- 2009
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 14:1, s. 13-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plans to solve complex environmental problems should always consider the role of surprise. Nevertheless, there is a tendency to emphasize known computable aspects of a problem while neglecting aspects that are unknown and failing to ask questions about them. The tendency to ignore the noncomputable can be countered by considering a wide range of perspectives, encouraging transparency with regard to conflicting viewpoints, stimulating a diversity of models, and managing for the emergence of new syntheses that reorganize fragmentary knowledge.
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| 6. |
- Chapin III, F. Stuart, et al.
(författare)
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Earth stewardship : Shaping a sustainable future through interacting policy and norm shifts
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 51:9, s. 1907-1920
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Transformation toward a sustainable future requires an earth stewardship approach to shift society from its current goal of increasing material wealth to a vision of sustaining built, natural, human, and social capital—equitably distributed across society, within and among nations. Widespread concern about earth’s current trajectory and support for actions that would foster more sustainable pathways suggests potential social tipping points in public demand for an earth stewardship vision. Here, we draw on empirical studies and theory to show that movement toward a stewardship vision can be facilitated by changes in either policy incentives or social norms. Our novel contribution is to point out that both norms and incentives must change and can do so interactively. This can be facilitated through leverage points and complementarities across policy areas, based on values, system design, and agency. Potential catalysts include novel democratic institutions and engagement of non-governmental actors, such as businesses, civic leaders, and social movements as agents for redistribution of power. Because no single intervention will transform the world, a key challenge is to align actions to be synergistic, persistent, and scalable.
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| 7. |
- Dakos, Vasilis, et al.
(författare)
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Ecosystem tipping points in an evolving world
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Ecology & Evolution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-334X. ; 3:3, s. 355-362
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is growing concern over tipping points arising in ecosystems because of the crossing of environmental thresholds. Tipping points lead to abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts between alternative ecosystem states, potentially incurring high societal costs. Trait variation in populations is central to the biotic feedbacks that maintain alternative ecosystem states, as they govern the responses of populations to environmental change that could stabilize or destabilize ecosystem states. However, we know little about how evolutionary changes in trait distributions over time affect the occurrence of tipping points and even less about how big-scale ecological shifts reciprocally interact with trait dynamics. We argue that interactions between ecological and evolutionary processes should be taken into account in order to understand the balance of feedbacks governing tipping points in nature.
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| 8. |
- Downing, Andrea S., et al.
(författare)
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Effects of resources and mortality on the growth and reproduction of Nile perch in Lake Victoria
- 2013
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Ingår i: Freshwater Biology. - : Wiley. - 0046-5070 .- 1365-2427. ; 58:4, s. 828-840
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 1. A collapse of Nile perch stocks of Lake Victoria could affect up to 30million people. Furthermore, changes in Nile perch population size-structure and stocks make the threat of collapse imminent. However, whether eutrophication or fishing will be the bane of Nile perch is still debated. 2. Here, we attempt to unravel how changes in food resources, a side effect of eutrophication, and fishing mortality determine fish population growth and size structures. We parameterised a physiologically structured model to Nile perch, analysed the influence of ontogenetic diet shifts and relative resource abundances on existence boundaries of Nile perch and described the populations on either side of these boundaries. 3. Our results showed that ignoring ontogenetic diet shifts can lead to over-estimating the maximum sustainable mortality of a fish population. Size distributions can be indicators of processes driving population dynamics. However, the vulnerability of stocks to fishing mortality is dependent on its environment and is not always reflected in size distributions. 4. We suggest that the ecosystem, instead of populations, should be used to monitor long-term effects of human impact.
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| 9. |
- Downing, Andrea S., et al.
(författare)
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Was Lates Late? : A Null Model for the Nile Perch Boom in Lake Victoria
- 2013
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 8:10, s. e76847-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nile perch (Lates niloticus) suddenly invaded Lake Victoria between 1979 and 1987, 25 years after its introduction in the Ugandan side of the lake. Nile perch then replaced the native fish diversity and irreversibly altered the ecosystem and its role to lakeshore societies: it is now a prised export product that supports millions of livelihoods. The delay in the Nile perch boom led to a hunt for triggers of the sudden boom and generated several hypotheses regarding its growth at low abundances - all hypotheses having important implications for the management of Nile perch stocks. We use logistic growth as a parsimonious null model to predict when the Nile perch invasion should have been expected, given its growth rate, initial stock size and introduction year. We find the first exponential growth phase can explain the timing of the perch boom at the scale of Lake Victoria, suggesting that complex mechanisms are not necessary to explain the Nile perch invasion or its timing. However, the boom started in Kenya before Uganda, indicating perhaps that Allee effects act at smaller scales than that of the whole Lake. The Nile perch invasion of other lakes indicates that habitat differences may also have an effect on invasion success. Our results suggest there is probably no single management strategy applicable to the whole lake that would lead to both efficient and sustainable exploitation of its resources.
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| 10. |
- Estes, James A., et al.
(författare)
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Trophic Downgrading of Planet Earth
- 2011
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 333:6040, s. 301-306
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Until recently, large apex consumers were ubiquitous across the globe and had been for millions of years. The loss of these animals may be humankind's most pervasive influence on nature. Although such losses are widely viewed as an ethical and aesthetic problem, recent research reveals extensive cascading effects of their disappearance in marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems worldwide. This empirical work supports long-standing theory about the role of top-down forcing in ecosystems but also highlights the unanticipated impacts of trophic cascades on processes as diverse as the dynamics of disease, wildfire, carbon sequestration, invasive species, and biogeochemical cycles. These findings emphasize the urgent need for interdisciplinary research to forecast the effects of trophic downgrading on process, function, and resilience in global ecosystems.
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| 11. |
- Folke, Carl, et al.
(författare)
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Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere
- 2021
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 50:4, s. 834-869
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality-of rising system-wide turbulence-calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Folke, Carl, et al.
(författare)
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Transnational corporations and the challenge of biosphere stewardship
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Ecology & Evolution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-334X. ; 3:10, s. 1396-1403
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sustainability within planetary boundaries requires concerted action by individuals, governments, civil society and private actors. For the private sector, there is concern that the power exercised by transnational corporations generates, and is even central to, global environmental change. Here, we ask under which conditions transnational corporations could either hinder or promote a global shift towards sustainability. We show that a handful of transnational corporations have become a major force shaping the global intertwined system of people and planet. Transnational corporations in agriculture, forestry, seafood, cement, minerals and fossil energy cause environmental impacts and possess the ability to influence critical functions of the biosphere. We review evidence of current practices and identify six observed features of change towards 'corporate biosphere stewardship', with significant potential for upscaling. Actions by transnational corporations, if combined with effective public policies and improved governmental regulations, could substantially accelerate sustainability efforts.
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| 14. |
- Gelcich, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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Navigating transformations in governance of Chilean marine coastal resources
- 2010
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 107:39, s. 16794-16799
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Marine ecosystems are in decline. New transformational changes in governance are urgently required to cope with overfishing, pollution, global changes, and other drivers of degradation. Here we explore social, political, and ecological aspects of a transformation in governance of Chile's coastal marine resources, from 1980 to today. Critical elements in the initial preparatory phase of the transformation were (i) recognition of the depletion of resource stocks, (ii) scientific knowledge on the ecology and resilience of targeted species and their role in ecosystem dynamics, and (iii) demonstration-scale experimental trials, building on smaller-scale scientific experiments, which identified new management pathways. The trials improved cooperation among scientists and fishers, integrating knowledge and establishing trust. Political turbulence and resource stock collapse provided a window of opportunity that triggered the transformation, supported by new enabling legislation. Essential elements to navigate this transformation were the ability to network knowledge from the local level to influence the decision-making processes at the national level, and a preexisting social network of fishers that provided political leverage through a national confederation of artisanal fishing collectives. The resultant governance scheme includes a revolutionary national system of marine tenure that allocates user rights and responsibilities to fisher collectives. Although fine tuning is necessary to build resilience of this new regime, this transformation has improved the sustainability of the interconnected social-ecological system. Our analysis of how this transformation unfolded provides insights into how the Chilean system could be further developed and identifies generalized pathways for improved governance of marine resources around the world.
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| 15. |
- Homer-Dixon, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Synchronous failure : the emerging causal architecture of global crisis
- 2015
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 20:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent global crises reveal an emerging pattern of causation that could increasingly characterize the birth and progress of future global crises. A conceptual framework identifies this pattern's deep causes, intermediate processes, and ultimate outcomes. The framework shows how multiple stresses can interact within a single social-ecological system to cause a shift in that system's behavior, how simultaneous shifts of this kind in several largely discrete social-ecological systems can interact to cause a far larger intersystemic crisis, and how such a larger crisis can then rapidly propagate across multiple system boundaries to the global scale. Case studies of the 2008-2009 financial-energy and food-energy crises illustrate the framework. Suggestions are offered for future research to explore further the framework's propositions.
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| 16. |
- Hughes, Terry P., et al.
(författare)
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Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries
- 2013
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Ingår i: Trends in Ecology & Evolution. - : Elsevier BV. - 0169-5347 .- 1872-8383. ; 28:7, s. 389-395
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Life on Earth has repeatedly displayed abrupt and massive changes in the past, and there is no reason to expect that comparable planetary-scale regime shifts will not continue in the future. Different lines of evidence indicate that regime shifts occur when the climate or biosphere transgresses a tipping point. Whether human activities will trigger such a global event in the near future is uncertain, due to critical knowledge gaps. In particular, we lack understanding of how regime shifts propagate across scales, and whether local or regional tipping points can lead to global transitions. The ongoing disruption of ecosystems and climate, combined with unprecedented breakdown of isolation by human migration and trade, highlights the need to operate within safe planetary boundaries.
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| 17. |
- Kosten, Sarian, et al.
(författare)
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Warmer climates boost cyanobacterial dominance in shallow lakes
- 2012
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013. ; 18:1, s. 118-126
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dominance by cyanobacteria hampers human use of lakes and reservoirs worldwide. Previous studies indicate that excessive nutrient loading and warmer conditions promote dominance by cyanobacteria, but evidence from global scale field data has so far been scarce. Our analysis, based on a study of 143 lakes along a latitudinal transect ranging from subarctic Europe to southern South America, shows that although warmer climates do not result in higher overall phytoplankton biomass, the percentage of the total phytoplankton biovolume attributable to cyanobacteria increases steeply with temperature. Our results also reveal that the percent cyanobacteria is greater in lakes with high rates of light absorption. This points to a positive feedback because restriction of light availability is often a consequence of high phytoplankton biovolume, which in turn may be driven by nutrient loading. Our results indicate a synergistic effect of nutrients and climate. The implications are that in a future warmer climate, nutrient concentrations may have to be reduced substantially from present values in many lakes if cyanobacterial dominance is to be controlled.
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| 18. |
- Levin, Simon A., et al.
(författare)
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Governance in the Face of Extreme Events : Lessons from Evolutionary Processes for Structuring Interventions, and the Need to Go Beyond
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ecosystems (New York. Print). - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-9840 .- 1435-0629. ; 25:3, s. 697-711
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The increasing frequency of extreme events, exogenous and endogenous, poses challenges for our societies. The current pandemic is a case in point; but once-in-a-century weather events are also becoming more common, leading to erosion, wildfire and even volcanic events that change ecosystems and disturbance regimes, threaten the sustainability of our life-support systems, and challenge the robustness and resilience of societies. Dealing with extremes will require new approaches and large-scale collective action. Preemptive measures can increase general resilience, a first line of protection, while more specific reactive responses are developed. Preemptive measures also can minimize the negative effects of events that cannot be avoided. In this paper, we first explore approaches to prevention, mitigation and adaptation, drawing inspiration from how evolutionary challenges have made biological systems robust and resilient, and from the general theory of complex adaptive systems. We argue further that proactive steps that go beyond will be necessary to reduce unacceptable consequences.
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| 19. |
- Mendonca, Raquel, 1983-, et al.
(författare)
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Bimodality in stable isotope composition facilitates the tracing of carbon transfer from macrophytes to highertrophic levels
- 2013
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Ingår i: Hydrobiologia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0018-8158 .- 1573-5117. ; 710:1, s. 205-218
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Even though the suitability of macrophytesto act as a carbon source to food webs hasbeen questioned by some studies, some others indicate that macrophyte-derived carbon may play an importantrole in the trophic transfer of organic matter in thefood web of shallow lakes. To evaluate the importanceof macrophytes to food webs, we collected primaryproducers—macrophytes and periphyton—and consumersfrom 19 South American shallow lakes andanalyzed their carbon stable isotopes composition(d13C). Despite the diversity of inorganic carbonsources available in our study lakes, the macrophytes’d13C signatures showed a clear bimodal distribution:13C-depleted and 13C-enriched, averaging at -27.2 and -13.5%, respectively. We argue that the use ofeither CO2 or HCO3- by the macrophytes largelycaused the bimodal pattern in d13C signals. Thecontribution of carbon from macrophytes to the lake’sfood webs was not straightforward in most of the lakesbecause the macrophytes’ isotopic composition wasquite similar to the isotopic composition of periphyton,phytoplankton, and terrestrial carbon. However,in some lakes where the macrophytes had a distinctisotopic signature, our data suggest that macrophytescan represent an important carbon source to shallowlake food webs.
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| 20. |
- Peeters, E, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing ecological quality of shallow lakes: Does knowledge of transparency suffice?
- 2009
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Ingår i: Basic and Applied Ecology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1618-0089 .- 1439-1791. ; 10, s. 89-96
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires that all aquatic ecosystems in their member states should reach ‘good’ ecological quality by 2015. To assess ecological quality, the WFD requires the definition of reference conditions using biological, physical and chemical indicators and the assignment of each water body to one of five quality classes using these indicators. Elaborate assessment schemes using large sets of variables are now being developed. Here we address the question whether all this is really needed and what the simplest assessment approach would be for the case of shallow lakes. We explore the relationships between the quality class assigned to a lake by experts in shallow lake ecology and a rich set of biological, physical, and chemical data. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were carried out based on data from 86 shallow lakes throughout Europe that were sampled in 2000 and/or 2001. Ecological quality of shallow lakes judged by experts was strongly correlated to physical and chemical variables associated with light regime and nutrients and much less to biological variables. Our regression model showed that ecological quality of this set of shallow lakes judged by experts could be predicted quite well from water transparency expressed as Secchi depth and that other variables did not contribute to it significantly. According to the WFD, lakes should at least have a ‘good’ ecological quality. Quality judged by experts and predicted quality were similar for 78% of the lakes with respect to meeting this standard. As a cautionary note we stress that Secchi depth alone will be a less useful indicator if effects of stressors other than eutrophication (e.g. lake acidification and toxic pollution) are to be considered.
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| 21. |
- Polasky, Stephen, et al.
(författare)
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Corridors of Clarity : Four Principles to Overcome Uncertainty Paralysis in the Anthropocene
- 2020
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Ingår i: BioScience. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0006-3568 .- 1525-3244. ; 70:12, s. 1139-1144
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global environmental change challenges humanity because of its broad scale, long-lasting, and potentially irreversible consequences. Key to an effective response is to use an appropriate scientific lens to peer through the mist of uncertainty that threatens timely and appropriate decisions surrounding these complex issues. Identifying such corridors of clarity could help understanding critical phenomena or causal pathways sufficiently well to justify taking policy action. To this end, we suggest four principles: Follow the strongest and most direct path between policy decisions on outcomes, focus on finding sufficient evidence for policy purpose, prioritize no-regrets policies by avoiding options with controversial, uncertain, or immeasurable benefits, aim for getting the big picture roughly right rather than focusing on details.
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| 22. |
- Rockström, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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A safe operating space for humanity
- 2009
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 461:7263, s. 472-475
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 23. |
- Rockström, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Planetary Boundaries : Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity
- 2009
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 14:2, s. 32-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely. Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. We have identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, we propose quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere <350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W m(-2) in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite >= 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (<5% reduction in O-3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N-2 to 35 Tg N yr(-1)) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km(3) yr(-1) of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which we have not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading. We estimate that humanity has already transgressed three planetary boundaries: for climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, and changes to the global nitrogen cycle. Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. The social impacts of transgressing boundaries will be a function of the social-ecological resilience of the affected societies. Our proposed boundaries are rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps. Filling these gaps will require major advancements in Earth System and resilience science. The proposed concept of "planetary boundaries" lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the "planetary playing field" for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale.
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| 24. |
- Scheffer, Marten, et al.
(författare)
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Dual thinking for scientists
- 2015
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 20:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent studies provide compelling evidence for the idea that creative thinking draws upon two kinds of processes linked to distinct physiological features, and stimulated under different conditions. In short, the fast system-I produces intuition whereas the slow and deliberate system-II produces reasoning. System-I can help see novel solutions and associations instantaneously, but is prone to error. System-II has other biases, but can help checking and modifying the system-I results. Although thinking is the core business of science, the accepted ways of doing our work focus almost entirely on facilitating system-II. We discuss the role of system-I thinking in past scientific breakthroughs, and argue that scientific progress may be catalyzed by creating conditions for such associative intuitive thinking in our academic lives and in education. Unstructured socializing time, education for daring exploration, and cooperation with the arts are among the potential elements. Because such activities may be looked upon as procrastination rather than work, deliberate effort is needed to counteract our systematic bias.
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| 25. |
- Scheffer, Marten, et al.
(författare)
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The Evolution of Functionally Redundant Species; Evidence from Beetles
- 2015
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - [Scheffer, Marten; Vergnon, Remi; van Nes, Egbert H.; Cuppen, Jan G. M.; Peeters, Edwin T. H. M.] geningen Univ, Dept Aquat Ecol & Water Qual Management, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. [Leijs, Remko] S Australian Museum, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia. [Leijs, Remko] Univ Adelaide, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Adelaide, SA, Australia. [Leijs, Remko] Flinders Univ South Australia, Sch Biol Sci, Adelaide, SA, Australia. [Nilsson, Anders N.] Umea Univ, Dept Ecol & Environm Sci, S-90187 Umea, Sweden. : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 10:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While species fulfill many different roles in ecosystems, it has been suggested that numerous species might actually share the same function in a near neutral way. So-far, however, it is unclear whether such functional redundancy really exists. We scrutinize this question using extensive data on the world's 4168 species of diving beetles. We show that across the globe these animals have evolved towards a small number of regularly-spaced body sizes, and that locally co-existing species are either very similar in size or differ by at least 35%. Surprisingly, intermediate size differences (10-20%) are rare. As body-size strongly reflects functional aspects such as the food that these generalist predators can eat, these beetles thus form relatively distinct groups of functional look-a-likes. The striking global regularity of these patterns support the idea that a self-organizing process drives such species-rich groups to self-organize evolutionary into clusters where functional redundancy ensures resilience through an insurance effect.
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| 26. |
- Steffen, Will, et al.
(författare)
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Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
- 2018
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 115:33, s. 8252-8259
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a Hothouse Earth pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.
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| 27. |
- Sumaila, U. Rashid, et al.
(författare)
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WTO must ban harmful fisheries subsidies
- 2021
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 374:6567, s. 544-544
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 28. |
- Troell, Max, et al.
(författare)
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Does aquaculture add resilience to the global food system?
- 2014
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 111:37, s. 13257-13263
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aquaculture is the fastest growing food sector and continues to expand alongside terrestrial crop and livestock production. Using portfolio theory as a conceptual framework, we explore how current interconnections between the aquaculture, crop, livestock, and fisheries sectors act as an impediment to, or an opportunity for, enhanced resilience in the global food system given increased resource scarcity and climate change. Aquaculture can potentially enhance resilience through improved resource use efficiencies and increased diversification of farmed species, locales of production, and feeding strategies. However, aquaculture's reliance on terrestrial crops and wild fish for feeds, its dependence on freshwater and land for culture sites, and its broad array of environmental impacts diminishes its ability to add resilience. Feeds for livestock and farmed fish that are fed rely largely on the same crops, although the fraction destined for aquaculture is presently small (similar to 4%). As demand for high-value fed aquaculture products grows, competition for these crops will also rise, as will the demand for wild fish as feed inputs. Many of these crops and forage fish are also consumed directly by humans and provide essential nutrition for low-income households. Their rising use in aquafeeds has the potential to increase price levels and volatility, worsening food insecurity among the most vulnerable populations. Although the diversification of global food production systems that includes aquaculture offers promise for enhanced resilience, such promise will not be realized if government policies fail to provide adequate incentives for resource efficiency, equity, and environmental protection.
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| 29. |
- van den Bergh, Jeroen, et al.
(författare)
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What if solar energy becomes really cheap? A thought experiment on environmental problem shifting
- 2015
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Ingår i: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. - : Elsevier BV. - 1877-3435 .- 1877-3443. ; 14, s. 170-179
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Solving one environmental problem may often invoke or intensify another one. Such environmental problem shifting (EPS) is a neglected topic in global sustainability research. Indeed, it is difficult to study as it requires the merging of insights from various research areas. Here we identify relevant studies, and provide an illustration and guidelines for the systematic study of EPS. As a modest thought experiment to illustrate the relevance of EPS, we consider solutions to scarcity of energy resources and climate change that, due to their extreme nature, may lead to considerable environmental problem shifting. We qualitatively assess the likely environmental and socioeconomic impacts of three hypothetical energy futures to highlight the possibility that as we resolve one environmental problem, another may be aggravated. We further present a set of guidelines to study EPS in a systematic and focused way. Here we stress that shifting can be mediated by biophysical as well as socioeconomic mechanisms, which means that its analysis requires a genuine interdisciplinary effort.
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| 30. |
- Walker, Brian, et al.
(författare)
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Response diversity as a sustainability strategy
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2398-9629. ; 6:6, s. 621-629
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Financial advisers recommend a diverse portfolio to respond to market fluctuations across sectors. Similarly, nature has evolved a diverse portfolio of species to maintain ecosystem function amid environmental fluctuations. In urban planning, public health, transport and communications, food production, and other domains, however, this feature often seems ignored. As we enter an era of unprecedented turbulence at the planetary level, we argue that ample responses to this new reality — that is, response diversity — can no longer be taken for granted and must be actively designed and managed. We describe here what response diversity is, how it is expressed and how it can be enhanced and lost.
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| 31. |
- Österblom, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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A message from magic to science : seeing how the brain can be tricked may strengthen our thinking
- 2015
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 20:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Scientific discoveries rely on creative thinking, and several authors have explored similarities in and differences between creativity in the sciences and that in the arts. Here we explore possible ways in which science can learn from the arts, focusing specifically on experiences derived from the art of magic and on the limitations of human cognition. Generations of stage magicians or illusionists have made sophisticated use of the weaknesses in human systems of perception and interpretation. We highlight three important principles of magic tricks, including: (1) the audience see what it expects, (2) it is blind to all but the focus of attention, and (3) ideas spring predictably from a primed mind. These principles highlight a number of important tendencies, which we argue are shortcomings in the ability of scientists to perceive the world, and which scientists need to be aware of. Consciously addressing these shortcomings may help scientists improve their creativity, and will strengthen their capacity to address complex and global challenges.
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