| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
- Andersson, Kent, et al.
(författare)
-
Technology Forecast 2012: Military utility of ten technologies : a report from seminars at the SNDC Department of Military Technology
- 2012
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Ten technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint.The method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technology. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn.We introduce our definition of military utility as being activities that efficiently and with the lowest cost in terms of lives and materiel lead to fulfilment of the mission objectives.The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with a significant potential, with uncertain potential and with negligible potential.The following technologies were assessed to have a significant potential for military utility;Augmented RealityNano air vehiclesSolid State Laser weaponsIn the scenarios studied, Augmented Reality (AR) is assessed to have a positive impact on several SwAF capabilities, especially for C2 and intelligence. AR is a relatively mature technology, applicable in many different branches. There are examples where AR is already applied with great success, e.g. Head-Up-Displays, HUD. The technology has proven its value. However, there are well known drawbacks to the technology such as weaknesses regarding models, increased weight for dismounted soldiers, power consumption etc. There is also a risk that personnel will have problems solving their tasks when AR systems fail, not being used to fighting without supporting systems.Nano air vehicles (NAV’s) have been assessed to contribute to a large range of capabilities, primarily intelligence. Their lifecycle cost has been assessed to be low, since development in this area is commercially driven, bringing down acquisition costs. Also, FAA has decided to allow NAV’s in controlled air space from 2015, which is expected to lead to an increase in civilian use of NAV’s. The technology is relatively mature even though there are obstacles concerning suitable materials, energy efficient propulsion systems as well as miniaturized microprocessors and software to control them.In the scenario studied, High Energy Solid State Lasers are assessed to have a positive impact on SwAF capabilities to engage targets on surface and in the air. The technology can be used to protect vessels on the surface and thereby increase survivability. The development of SSL in the given timeframe is expected to lower cost per shot and avoid the environmental problems with use of chemical lasers. Neighbouring military powers are expected to use laser weapons in the future, therefore SwAF should monitor the development of the laser weapons technology and develop and purchase adequate countermeasures.The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain potential for military utility;Metamaterial cloakingElectromagnetic gunSmall satellitesUltra-violet communicationMetamaterial cloaking, if realisable in the future, is assessed to be firstly implemented in the acoustic spectrum, since manufacturing of small structured cloaks for the shorter wavelengths in the optic and radar spectra is believed to be more difficult. Cloaking of submarines is primarily assessed to increase the survivability against torpedoes having active sonar. The use of cloaked mines could pose a deterring threat, even to advanced amphibious operations against Sweden. The technological development in this area should be closely monitored and compared to existing, maturing techniques for countermeasures and for the development of broad spectrum active torpedoes. The greatest concern is that cloaking will have negative impact on submarine manoeuvrability.The electro-thermal chemical (ETC) gun seems to be a first step towards a fully electrical gun such as the rail-gun or the coil-gun. The fully electrical guns have been a work in progress for some decades and there are still remaining challenges both concerning electrical power supply and design materials. When or if, they will be operational is difficult to say.The military utility of small satellites is disputed, despite an assessed contribution to several of the SwAF capabilities. The main reason for this is that there seems to be other alternatives which provide the desired capabilities, at a lower cost. Furthermore, the realisability and performance of small productionline manufactured nanosatellites is uncertain. However the scenario has shown that there are benefits to the military utility not met by other resources, e.g. the capability to perform surveillance and reconnaissance in operational areas globally without risking violation of the territorial integrity of other states or the lives of military personnel. Since there is a great interest in the technology area and several programmes are ongoing internationally the knowledgebase is assessed to be significantly better in a five year period. Also, the Swedish in depth study of space exploitation is soon to report.Ultra-violet communication has uncertain potential for military utility within the period, but the technology is assessed to have a positive impact on SwAF capability to maintain communications. The theoretical understanding of the area is low It is therefore uncertain if systems can be realized in the time frame. However, if commercial applications are developed, the prospect of military applications might change. In that case UV-communication could be a complement to RF- communication but is not foreseen to replace it. The following technologies were assessed to have negligible potential for military utility;Biomimetic unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV)Automated behaviour AnalysisEvolutionary RoboticsBiomimetic UUV’s could be used for covert surveillance and inconspicuous naval reconnaissance missions at sea or in amphibious missions. Even though the report focuses on fishlike propulsion, the military utility of UUV’s is assessed to be mostly dependent on the development of advanced automation and learning systems. As of now, we assess other existing technologies as being preferable due to lower cost and less complexity. The performance of UUV’s needed for SwAF capabilities are assessed to be far off into the future. Simpler UUV systems could however be used by potential adversaries for monitoring our own base areas and hence the development should be monitored from a protection point of view.Automated behaviour analysis may be of some relevance for increased security screening and surveillance. The primary military utility of the technology will however probably be for international activities and to a lesser extent for increased base security in Sweden. Generally the main applications for this kind of technology are assessed to be for civilian use in public spaces and close to high value areas like airports, important official buildings and other similar objects.Evolutionary Robotics, here restricted to the sub domain Advanced Robotics, has uncertain potential for military utility within the period. In the scenarios studied the technology is assessed to have a positive impact on a broad range of SwAF capabilities. The area is large and inconsistent comprising sub areas that are assessed to have significant potential, but also those that are believed to have negligible potential or where technological obstacles might retard the development.Our evaluation of the used method shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all possible aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the ten technologies’ military utility in the presented scenarios, not the technology itself. The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future.The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the trade off that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study.
|
|
| 3. |
- Andersson, Kent, 1967-, et al.
(författare)
-
The Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies
- 2019
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The purpose of this report is to describe the Swedish Defence University (SEDU) Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies (MUAFT). The report describes the actions taken in each step of the process and ends with references and a template for the technology memos used as basis for assessment.
|
|
| 4. |
- Hult, Gunnar, Professor, 1952-, et al.
(författare)
-
Technology Forecast 2022 – Military Utility of Future Technologies
- 2022
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- For the purpose of Technology Forecast 2022 five reports from the German Fraunhofer Institute were chosen by FMV (and SwAF) and given to the Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security to analyse and assess within the timeframe up to 2040.The following research reports were reviewed by the working group at SEDU:· AI Hardware · Explainable Artificial Intelligence· Human-Agent Teaming· Photonic Radar· Satellite Independent Navigation The aim of the Technology Forecast seminars and the finished product, this report, is to assess the potential military utility of the reviewed technologies and how they may contribute to the Swedish Armed Forces’ operational capabilities based on the presented concept(s) and scenario(s). The military utility is categorised by one of four assessments: Significant, Moderate, Negligible or Uncertain. The following technologies were assessed to potentially have significant military utility:· Explainable Artificial Intelligence· Human-Agent Teaming· Photonic RadarThe following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility:· AI Hardware · Satellite Independent Navigation
|
|
| 5. |
- Möller, Cecilia, 1979-
(författare)
-
Design and Experiments with High Power Microwave Sources : The Virtual Cathode Oscillator
- 2012
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- High-Power Microwaves (HPM) can be used to intentionally disturb or destroy electronic equipment at a distance by inducing high voltages and currents.This thesis presents results from simulations and experiments with a narrow band HPM source, the vircator. The high voltages needed to generate HPM puts the vircator under great stress, especially the electrode materials. Several electrode materials have been tested for endurance and their influence on the characteristics of the microwave pulse. With the proper materials the shot-to-shot variations are small and the geometry can be optimized in terms of e.g. output power or frequency content. Experiments with a resonant cavity added to the vircator geometry showed that with proper tuning of the cavity, the frequency content of the microwave radiation is very narrow banded and in this case the highest fields are generated. The vircator can be built in different geometries. Four different vircator types are investigated and the coaxial vircator is found to have advantages as a high radiated power and the possibility to vary the polarization during operation.Since HPM pulses are very short and have high field strengths, special field probes are needed. An HPM pulse may shift in frequency during the pulse and therefore it is very important to be able to compensate for the frequency dependence of the entire measurement system. The development and use of a far-field measurement system is described.
|
|
| 6. |
- Möller, Cecilia
(författare)
-
High Power Microwave Sources : design and experiments
- 2011
-
Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- High-Power Microwaves (HPM) can be used to intentionally disturb or destroy electronic equipment at a distance by inducing high voltages and currents. This thesis presents results from experiments with a narrow band HPM source, the vircator. The high voltages needed to generate HPM puts the vircator under great stress, especially the electrode materials. Several electrode materials have been tested for endurance and their influence on the characteristics of the microwave pulse. With the proper materials the shot-to-shot variations are small and the geometry can be optimized in terms of e.g. output power or frequency content. Experiments with a resonant cavity added to the vircator geometry showed that with proper tuning of the cavity, the frequency content of the microwave radiation is very narrow banded and the highest radiated fields are registred. Since HPM pulses are very short and have high field strengths, special field probes are needed. An HPM pulse may shift in frequency during the pulse so it is very important to be able to compensate for the frequency dependence of the entire measurement system. The development and use of a far-field measurement system is described.
|
|
| 7. |
- Norsell, Martin, et al.
(författare)
-
The Mutual Coupling Between War Fighting Capabilities and Military-Technology
- 2011. - 1
-
Ingår i: Stockholm Contributions in Military-Technology 2010. - Stockholm : Försvarshögskolan. - 9789186137076 ; , s. 21-28
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In modern warfare the dependence on and interaction with technology is internationally undisputed. Starting from the currently used definition of the academic subject of Military-Technology in Sweden and Finland this interaction is analyzed with reference to Swedish and Finnish doctrine. An elaborate discussion is given about how progression in the subject of Military-Technology is achieved compared to other military sciences. This paper aims to highlight that the current focus on command levels might not necessarily be suitable for strengthening the war fighting capabilities. Finally, the Military-Technology connection and contribution to the war fighting capabilities will be discussed and emphasized. The shortcomings and pitfalls of the currently used methods will also be discussed. Furthermore, the necessity of having a Military-Technology perspective to increase quality and relevance in officers’ education is stressed because it is shown that the war fighting capabilities and Military-Technology interaction is strong based on the Swedish and Finnish doctrine.
|
|
| 8. |
|
|
| 9. |
-
PROCEEDINGS of the 28th Annual Conference, International Sustainable Development Research Society : Sustainable Development and Courage: Culture, Art and Human Rights
- 2022
-
Proceedings (redaktörskap) (refereegranskat)abstract
- The summer of 2022 was a memorable and unique experience for all participants and organisers of the 28th annual conference of the International Sustainable Development Research Society – ISDRS 2022 in Stockholm.On the same turf of the United Nations conference in Stockholm in 1972 and its Stockholm +50 sibbling, and after two annual online versions of the conference forced upon us, it was with great joy and pleasure we met up again in Stockholm, Sweden. With 35+ re-occurring tracks, a hybrid set-up of both on campus and online conferencing, and with six collaborating universities in Stockholm: Marie Cederschiöld University, Stockholm School of Economics, Swedish Defence University, Stockholm University of the Arts, Södertörn University and University College Stockholm, the conference committee truly took us on a complex challenge. The participants successfully navigated between five different campi while enjoying the this years conference with the overall theme ”Sustainable Development and Courage. Culture, Art and Human Rights”.We were proud to accommodate over 400 delegates from 50+ countries and all six continents around the world, all of which engaging in the important endeavour of creating more knowledge to make our world a more sustainable one. The six key note panels can be view in its full length on the ISDRS YouTube channel launched in August 2022 with playlists for a few of the recent conferences.1 For this particular conference panels, please view the playlist for ISDRS 2022.2.
|
|
| 10. |
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan, 1964-, et al.
(författare)
-
Does the method for Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies provide utility?
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Technology in society. - : Elsevier. - 0160-791X .- 1879-3274. ; 67, s. 1-10
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies (MUAFT) method was developed as a cost-efficientalternative to methods such as NATO’s Disruptive Technology Assessment Games, to be used as a part of theSwedish Armed Forces’ long-term capability development process. The question addressed in this study iswhether MUAFT can be considered to have validity in its context and thus if it has potential to be useful to othersmall to medium size states. The analysis was based on an operationalization of Clark’s framework for scienceand technology intelligence analysis, combined with a military capability centric view of military utility. MUAFTreports from 2012 to 2018 were reviewed in terms of how they satisfy five key criteria. The study shows thatMUAFT provides utility, if used by a suitably composed group of experts, who are aware of the method’s limitations.The limitations mainly originate from a lack of explicit support for assessing the impact of forces forchange, other than technological forces, on military capability development. The expert group serves as thesynthesizing bridge between technology forecasts and military utility assessments. Therefore, comprehensiveexpertise is needed in various military technology specialisations, in the sponsor’s military capabilities and insubjects necessary to master in order to assess other influential societal forces for change.
|
|
| 11. |
|
|
| 12. |
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan, 1964-
(författare)
-
Effects of Lightning Electromagnetic Pulse and High Power Microwaves on Military Electric Systems
- 2002
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The awareness of the threat posed by Lightning Electromagnetic Pulse (LEMP) and High Power Microwaves (HPM) against the operational reliability of electric systems is rapidly growing. This has led to an increasing need for reliable tools, experimental as well as theoretical, for design, analysis and verification of system immunity against electromagnetic threats. This thesis presents four main studies of electromagnetic interaction:Firstly, we present measurements of common-mode (CM) voltages induced in a residential low-voltage power installation (LVPI) network exposed to LEMP. The sequences of induced voltage events during the complete duration of a negative cloud-to-ground (CG) flash, a positive CG flash, and a cloud flash (CC) are presented simultaneously with the incident electric field. In addition to the return strokes in CG flashes, we found that other discharge events, notably the bipolar pulse trains associated with the initiation of both CG lightning and cloud lightning, determine the transient lightning electromagnetic environment of electric systems and components.Secondly, the induced voltages due to broad and narrow impulse current injection into the shield of 48 m long signal and power cables were studied in order to simulate the coupling of LEMP to shipboard cable networks. Single- and multi-point grounding were studied for proposing an appropriate grounding philosophy for ships.Thirdly, we have studied microwave, 0.5 to 18 GHz, field-to-wire coupling for some basic wire geometries in Anechoic Chamber (AC) and Reverberation Chamber (RC). Receiving parameters, such as the antenna receiving cross section, σw, and the effective antenna length of the wire, he, are presented. The ratio between the maximum and average values of σw may exceed 10 to 15 dB in the AC, the average being equal to σw measured in the RC. These large variations of σw measured in an AC, as a function of the direction and polarization of the incident field, imply a substantial risk for obtaining too low values of σw since, for realistic radiated susceptibility (RS) tests in an AC, only a few angles of incidence can typically be afforded. Furthermore, σw measured in the RC follows a χ2-distribution with two degrees of freedom, which it does not do in the AC. Fourthly, we present measurements of microwave field-to-Printed-Circuit-Board coupling for single-sided PCBs, double-sided PCBs and multi-layer PCBs performed in RC. Receiving parameters are presented. σw measured for PCBs in the RC is found to follow a χ2-distribution with two degrees of freedom. The impedance-matched σw is bounded by λ2/8π. he of the traces on the PCBs is found to be roughly bounded by the wavelength λ.
|
|
| 13. |
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan, 1964-
(författare)
-
Ett militärtekniskt perspektiv på förmågeutveckling
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Kungl Krigsvetenskapsakademiens Handlingar och Tidskrift. - Stockholm : Kungl. Krigsvetenskapsakademien. - 0023-5369. ; :1, s. 71-92
-
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This article describes how external changes, doctrines, personnel, organization and technology have interacted over time. Based on Swedish government terms in office from 1991 to present time, we give a general overview of some important changes in the international development and their influence on defence policy reports, defence policy bills and on the Swedish Armed Forces capability development. We use two approaches, demand pull and technology push, to describe the changes observed. Among external changes, the ongoing technology development is important. In order to meet the challenges of the future, we propose that the Swedish Armed Forces should increase their investments on research and development as well as on technology forecasting.
|
|
| 14. |
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan, 1964-, et al.
(författare)
-
Induced Voltages in a Low-Voltage Power Installation Network Due to Lightning Electronmagnetic Fields : An Experimental Study
- 1999
-
Ingår i: IEEE transactions on electromagnetic compatibility (Print). - : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). - 0018-9375 .- 1558-187X. ; 41:3, s. 265-271
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents the experimental results on the induced common-mode (CM) voltages in a residential low-voltage power installation (LVPI) network exposed to electromagnetic fields from lightning. The objective of this investigation was to find out the severity of inducedvoltages in a low voltage network due to direct coupling of the lightning electromagnetic fields with the network in the absence of transient overvoltages coming through the distribution lines. Therefore, during the experiment the LVPI network was disconnected from the distribution network to exclude conducted transients in the measured signals entering through the mains. The induced CM voltages in a power outlet of the network were measured simultaneously with the vertical component of the electric field near the installation. The sequence of induced voltage events during the complete duration of one negative cloud-to-ground (CG) flash, one positive CG flash, and one cloud flash (CC), thought to be typical, is presented simultaneously with the electric field. It is shown that in addition to the return strokes in ground flashes, other discharge events taking place in the cloud; notably, the bipolar pulse trains associated with the initiation of both CG lightning and cloud lightning, are also important in determining the transient environment of electronic devices connected to a LVPI network. Flashes at a distance of about 25 km produced many induced-voltage pulses as large as 100 V, six such pulses in a time period of 0.4 ms in a negative CG flash, and 11 such pulses in a time period of 3 ms in a CC that immediately followed the ground flash.
|
|
| 15. |
|
|
| 16. |
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
-
Interactive Teaching of Military-Technology : A Pilot Study of Implementation
- 2011. - 1
-
Ingår i: Stockholm Contributions in Military-Technology 2010. - Stockholm : Försvarshögskolan. - 9789186137076 ; , s. 141-150
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The interactive learning platform Comp Edu, developed and used since 1997 at the Division of Heat and Power Technology at the Royal Institute of Technology, has recently been introduced as a new tool for teaching Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College. In this pilot study, interactive teaching has been tested at the initial training of junior officers at the Swedish National Defence College. Results from a student evaluation of the tool are presented. These results will be incorporated in future implementations of this interactive teaching method on a broader scale in Military-Technology. The students appreciated the freedom of being able to choose when and where to study the pensum and found CompEdu being an excellent tool for facilitating reviewing the chapter before an exam. An outline for future work is presented.
|
|
| 17. |
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan, 1964-, et al.
(författare)
-
Microwave Field-to-Wire Coupling Measurements
- 1998
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Knowledge of antenna receiving properties of wires and cables is essential in the analysis of susceptibility of electronic systems to microwave radiation. This paper presents measurements of receiving parameters for basic wire geometries. Directional properties of realized gain, receiving cross section and of effective antenna lenght for the wires are presented. The impact of measured directivity effects of the order of 15 dB on radiated susceptibility testing in anechoic and mode-stirred chambers is discussed.
|
|
| 18. |
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan, 1964-, et al.
(författare)
-
Microwave Field-to-Wire Coupling Measurements in Anechoic and Reverberation Chambers
- 2002
-
Ingår i: IEEE transactions on electromagnetic compatibility (Print). - : IEEE. - 0018-9375 .- 1558-187X. ; 44:1, s. 222-232
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Knowledge of the differences in radiated susceptibility (RS) testing in anechoic (AC) and reverberation chambers (RC) is essential for analysis of the susceptibility of electronic systems to microwave radiation. We have studied microwave field-to-wire coupling for some basic wire geometries above a ground plane in ACs and RC. Results for receiving parameters such as the antenna receiving cross section and the effective antenna length of the wire, he, are presented. The ratio between the maximum and average values of the antenna receiving cross section may exceed 15 dB in the AC, the average being equal to the antenna receiving cross section measured in the RC. Large variations in the antenna receiving cross section show that the outcome of an RS test in an AC may depend strongly on the direction and polarization of the incident field. For a realistic RS test in ACs only a few angles of incidence can typically be afforded, implying a substantial risk for undertesting. Furthermore, the antenna receiving cross section measured in the RC follows a Chi-square-distribution with two degrees of freedom. The measurements in the AC do not follow the same distribution.
|
|
| 19. |
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
-
Technology Forecast 2013 Military Utility of Six Technologies : a Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology
- 2013
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two internet based search reports from Recorded Future have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military- Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint.We assess the military utility of a certain technology, as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios.The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility.The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;Alternative fuelsHigh altitude platformsUnmanned Aerial VehiclesCyber DefenceThe forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" if the tool is combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithmsThe following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" in its present formThe following technology was assessed to have negligible military utility;Walking machinesThe method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible military utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn.Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the six technologies’ potential military utility within the presented scenarios, not the technology itself.The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) has been slightly modified from the one used in the Technology Forecast 2012. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future.The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and helps the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.Given the limited quantitative base (only 2 reports) for assessing the potential value of using the tool Temporal Analytics™ used by Recorded Future, our conclusion is nevertheless that the overall value of using the tool for technology forecasting is rather poor. Our assessment is that Recorded Future at present can’t be used as an alternative to the Fraunhofer Institute. Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. In the case of Recorded Future’s technology forecast, the sources that are relevant for making military predictions are considered to be ill-suited for aggregation in the form the tool in focus, Temporal Analytics™, provides. The tool requires further development to fit military purposes. Further use of Recorded Future in the technology forecast process is therefore not recommended, at least not until the tool has been combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms.We propose that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC could be involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process giving support to FMV in choosing which technology areas that should be selected to be studied by the Fraunhofer Institute within the framework of the Technology Forecast project (Teknisk Prognos).
|
|
| 20. |
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
-
Technology Forecast 2014 Military Utility of Four Technologies : A Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology
- 2014
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration, FMV, was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.We assess the military utility of a certain technology as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put in the two other classes, however it is not because the technology readiness level (TRL) is not reached by 2040.The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;Kinodynamic motion planning This technology is a prerequisite for reaching full autonomy of highly agile unmanned systems and is probably a logical, evolutionary way to go forward. It will affect most SwAF capabilities through enhanced mobility. This technology should be studied by the SwAF, preferably within all operational environments.Bio-inspired Adaptive Camouflage Surfaces "Bio-inspired camouflage" should be viewed in a broad multispectral perspective involving design requirements for low contrast in the visual- and IR-spectrum as well as, for most applications, low reflectivity in the radar-band. There is an ongoing duel between sensor development and camouflage systems and our assessment is that the fewer and more valuable platforms we have, we will need better camouflage performance in order to maintain low probability of detection and short detection distances for an adversary, at least if faced with a technologically mature adversary. Our overall assessment is that bio-inspired adaptive camouflage systems have significant potential for military utility.UCAV If the idea that UCAV are superior in air combat is realizable, we may be facing a paradigm shift of the same magnitude as that which airborne radar or air-to-air missiles introduced. Thus, UCAV are deemed to have potential for significant military utility in future air operations even though it is, at present, hard to predict how they will be used to maximize their military utility.The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;Bulk metallic glass (BMG) If BMG innovations prove to form a new performance step in armour and weapons development, it will from a Swedish perspective be crucial to take part in that development or else take the risk of being inferior on the battlefield. Given the many uncertainties concerning production and applications, we assess BMGs to have uncertain potential for military utility in 2040. However, the SwAF should monitor the development and applications in this area.None of the studied technologies were found to have negligible military utility. .The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in 2030-40 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of the technology were drawn.The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same that was used in the Technology Forecast 2013. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in depth presents our concept of military utility has been elaborated at the department.1Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the four technologies’ potential military utility within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned.The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.We appreciate that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC this time has been involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process.
|
|
| 21. |
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
-
Technology Forecast 2016: The Military Utility of Future Technologies : a Report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s Military-Technology Division
- 2016
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Three technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and four reports on literature studies (sometimes called scanning reports) from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration FMV was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.In the review we assess the military utility of a certain technology as a possible contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility; Multi robot systemsThe following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility; Over-the-Horizon Radar Space-based imaging radarThe following technology was found to have negligible military utility. Moving Target DefenceThe following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility; Software-Defined Networking Transient Materials- Programmed to Perish, but this technology should be monitored since it might reach high technical readiness level (TRL) by 2050-60The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of TRL in the time period to 2035 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were deemed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of each technology. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the assessed contribution to the fundamental capabilities and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities and Interoperability) were listed. Furthermore, the expected requirements on the SwAF R&D in order to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given.As a consequence of our continuing development of the evaluation process, we have for the first time used a model developed at the division of Military-Technology to assess the Military utility1 of the technologies. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating regarding the potential military utility of each technology were presented.The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same as used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. Also, it should be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios, and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned. The last chapter of this report analyzes thinking and debate on war and warfare in three military great powers: USA, Russia and China. Therefore, this chapter has a different structure. Aspects of military technology are discussed at the end of the chapter, but no assessment of the military utility is made.The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report is to been seen as an executive summary of the Fraunhofer reports and the reports on literature studies from FOI. The intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. The FOI reports are considered to be high quality. However, the selection of topics can be discussed since the selection
|
|
| 22. |
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan, 1964-, et al.
(författare)
-
Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies : A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division
- 2017
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Two technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute, three reports from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and two publications from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to up 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.In the review we assessed the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios. Because a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report only presents general assessments of the capability impact of the technologies studied.The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.The classification uncertain military utility was given to technologies that are difficult to put in the other three classes, it was not because the technology readiness level (TRL) will not bereached by 2040.The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:- Nanocarbons for photonic applicationsThe following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;- Internet of things (IoT)- Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agentsThe following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;- Post-quantum cryptography- New applications for hyperspectral image analysis for chemical and biological agentsNo technology was found to have negligible military utility.The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period was held to be correct. Each technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable for assessing the military utility as well as indicating any possibilities and drawbacks. Based on a SWOTanalysis, the assessed contributions to the fundamental capabilities, and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability), were listed. Furthermore, the expected SwAF R&D requirements, to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given. The Military utility was assessed using a model developed by the Military-Technology Division. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating of the potential military utility of each technology were presented.The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here (“the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios”) has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the seven technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.
|
|
| 23. |
- Sivertun, Åke, et al.
(författare)
-
Geografisk och klimatologisk påverkan på personal och materiel
- 2009
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- För att kunna verka i framtidens insatsmiljöer krävs en god kännedom om det geografiska området och dess klimat. De människor som ska verka på en plats utan att vara rätt förberedda och utan att ha fått rätt utrustning kommer inte att kunna utföra sitt uppdrag och förlusterna kan bli stora. Den utrustning och materiel som ska stödja insatsen kan bli obrukbar eller få mycket kort livslängd beroende på att den är avsedd för andra förhållanden än den som råder där de blir insatta. Miljön förändrar sig även över tiden med ibland olika årstider eller varierande temperatur, luftfuktighet och andra väderförhållanden - kanske under samma dygn. Fysiologisk inverkan på den enskilde soldaten liksom icke- eller felfungerande materiel är exempel på geografisk och klimatologisk påverkan som har stor betydelse för förbands säkerhet och deras förmåga att lösa tilldelade uppgifter. Utan kunskap om dessa frågor, t ex om vilka sjukdomar eller andra lokala faror kopplade bl a till klimatet som väntar liksom korrosiva prestandarelaterade begränsningar hos medförd materiel, kan insatsen bli begränsad eller rent av misslyckad.Syftet med denna studie är att inledningsvis inventera för att i senare faser föreslå lösningar på behovet av geografisk och klimatologisk kunskap som stöd för den expeditionära förmågan - dvs förmågan att kunna verka även på andra geografiska platser och under andra klimatologiska förhållanden och med snabbare insatstid än vi hittills gjort. Studien omfattar en genomgång av de olika informationsresurser som finns och hur villkoren ser ut för att kunna utnyttja dessa.Vilka möjligheter finns det att byta eller kommunicera information med andra förband eller aktörer?Hur har erfarenheterna från tidigare insatser dokumenterats och i vilken mån har lärdomarna kunnat integreras i doktriner, kravspecifikationer och planer? En viktig frågeställning som behövs arbetas vidare med är vilken beredskap som finns i berörda staber för att ta hand om geografisk och klimatologisk information och arbeta in den i sina egna planer och system för att skaffa sig en lägesbild? I förslag till senare faser i detta projekt nämns att utveckla förslag på de funktioner som skulle behövas för att kunna hantera dynamisk geografisk och klimatologisk information - tillsammans med information om hur dessa förhållanden påverkar människor och utrustning - i informationssystem och beslutstöd.
|
|
