| 1. |
- Green, C., et al.
(författare)
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A Horizon Scan to Support Chemical Pollution-Related Policymaking for Sustainable and Climate-Resilient Economies
- 2023
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Ingår i: Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry. - : Wiley. - 0730-7268 .- 1552-8618. ; 42:6, s. 1212-1228
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While chemicals are vital to modern society through materials, agriculture, textiles, new technology, medicines, and consumer goods, their use is not without risks. Unfortunately, our resources seem inadequate to address the breadth of chemical challenges to the environment and human health. Therefore, it is important we use our intelligence and knowledge wisely to prepare for what lies ahead. The present study used a Delphi-style approach to horizon-scan future chemical threats that need to be considered in the setting of chemicals and environmental policy, which involved a multidisciplinary, multisectoral, and multinational panel of 25 scientists and practitioners (mainly from the United Kingdom, Europe, and other industrialized nations) in a three-stage process. Fifteen issues were shortlisted (from a nominated list of 48), considered by the panel to hold global relevance. The issues span from the need for new chemical manufacturing (including transitioning to non-fossil-fuel feedstocks); challenges from novel materials, food imports, landfills, and tire wear; and opportunities from artificial intelligence, greater data transparency, and the weight-of-evidence approach. The 15 issues can be divided into three classes: new perspectives on historic but insufficiently appreciated chemicals/issues, new or relatively new products and their associated industries, and thinking through approaches we can use to meet these challenges. Chemicals are one threat among many that influence the environment and human health, and interlinkages with wider issues such as climate change and how we mitigate these were clear in this exercise. The horizon scan highlights the value of thinking broadly and consulting widely, considering systems approaches to ensure that interventions appreciate synergies and avoid harmful trade-offs in other areas. We recommend further collaboration between researchers, industry, regulators, and policymakers to perform horizon scanning to inform policymaking, to develop our ability to meet these challenges, and especially to extend the approach to consider also concerns from countries with developing economies. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;00:1-17. (c) 2023 Crown copyright and The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the King's Printer for Scotland.
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| 2. |
- Sumpter, N. A., et al.
(författare)
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Association of Gout Polygenic Risk Score With Age at Disease Onset and Tophaceous Disease in European and Polynesian Men With Gout
- 2023
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Ingår i: Arthritis & Rheumatology. - : Wiley. - 2326-5191 .- 2326-5205. ; 75:5, s. 816-825
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective. To determine whether a gout polygenic risk score (PRS) is associated with age at gout onset and tophaceous disease in European, East Polynesian, and West Polynesian men and women with gout. Methods. A 19-variant gout PRS was produced in 7 European gout cohorts (N = 4,016), 2 East Polynesian gout cohorts (N = 682), and 1 West Polynesian gout cohort (N = 490). Sex-stratified regression models were used to estimate the relationship between the PRS and age at gout onset and tophaceous disease. Results. The PRS was associated with earlier age at gout onset in men (beta = -3.61 in years per unit PRS [95% confidence interval (95% CI) -4.32, -2.90] in European men; beta = -6.35 [95% CI -8.91, -3.80] in East Polynesian men; beta = -3.51 [95% CI -5.46, -1.57] in West Polynesian men) but not in women (beta = 0.07 [95% CI -2.32, 2.45] in European women; beta = 0.20 [95% CI -7.21, 7.62] in East Polynesian women; beta -3.33 [95% CI -9.28, 2.62] in West Polynesian women). The PRS showed a positive association with tophaceous disease in men (odds ratio [OR] for the association 1.15 [95% CI 1.00, 1.31] in European men; OR 2.60 [95% CI 1.66, 4.06] in East Polynesian men; OR 1.53 [95% CI 1.07, 2.19] in West Polynesian men) but not in women (OR for the association 0.68 [95% CI 0.42, 1.10] in European women; OR 1.45 [95% CI 0.39, 5.36] in East Polynesian women). The PRS association with age at gout onset was robust to the removal of ABCG2 variants from the PRS in European and East Polynesian men (beta = -2.42 [95% CI -3.37, -1.46] and beta = -6.80 [95% CI -10.06, -3.55], respectively) but not in West Polynesian men (beta = -1.79 [95% CI -4.74, 1.16]). Conclusion. Genetic risk variants for gout also harbor risk for earlier age at gout onset and tophaceous disease in European and Polynesian men. Our findings suggest that earlier gout onset involves the accumulation of gout risk alleles in men but perhaps not in women, and that this genetic risk is shared across multiple ancestral groups.
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| 3. |
- Hanson, M. L., et al.
(författare)
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How we can make ecotoxicology more valuable to environmental protection
- 2017
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 578, s. 228-235
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is increasing awareness that the value of peer-reviewed scientific literature is not consistent, resulting in a growing desire to improve the practice and reporting of studies. This is especially important in the field of ecotoxicology, where regulatory decisions can be partly based on data from the peer-reviewed literature, with wide-reaching implications for environmental protection. Our objective is to improve the reporting of ecotoxicology studies so that they can be appropriately utilized in a fair and transparent fashion, based on their reliability and relevance. We propose a series of nine reporting requirements, followed by a set of recommendations for adoption by the ecotoxicology community. These reporting requirements will provide clarity on the the test chemical, experimental design and conditions, chemical identification, test organisms, exposure confirmation, measurable endpoints, how data are presented, data availability and statistical analysis. Providing these specific details will allow for a fuller assessment of the reliability and relevance of the studies, including limitations. Recommendations for the implementation of these reporting requirements are provided herein for practitioners, journals, reviewers, regulators, stakeholders, funders, and professional societies. If applied, our recommendations will improve the quality of ecotoxicology studies and their value to environmental protection.
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| 4. |
- Herbert-Read, J. E., et al.
(författare)
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Escape path complexity and its context dependency in Pacific blue-eyes (Pseudomugil signifer)
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Experimental Biology. - : The Company of Biologists. - 0022-0949 .- 1477-9145. ; 220:11, s. 2076-2081
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The escape paths prey animals take following a predatory attack appear to be highly unpredictable - a property that has been described as 'protean behaviour'. Here, we present a method of quantifying the escape paths of individual animals using a path complexity approach. When individual fish (Pseudomugil signifer) were attacked, we found that a fish's movement path rapidly increased in complexity following the attack. This path complexity remained elevated (indicating a more unpredictable path) for a sustained period (at least 10 s) after the attack. The complexity of the path was context dependent: paths were more complex when attacks were made closer to the fish, suggesting that these responses are tailored to the perceived level of threat. We separated out the components of speed and turning rate changes to determine which of these components contributed to the overall increase in path complexity following an attack. We found that both speed and turning rate measures contributed similarly to an individual's path complexity in absolute terms. Overall, our work highlights the context-dependent escape responses that animals use to avoid predators, and also provides a method for quantifying the escape paths of animals.
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| 5. |
- Herbert-Read, James E., et al.
(författare)
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Inferring the rules of interaction of shoaling fish
- 2011
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 108:46, s. 18726-18731
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Collective motion, where large numbers of individuals move synchronously together, is achieved when individuals adopt interaction rules that determine how they respond to their neighbors' movements and positions. These rules determine how group-living animals move, make decisions, and transmit information between individuals. Nonetheless, few studies have explicitly determined these interaction rules in moving groups, and very little is known about the interaction rules of fish. Here, we identify three key rules for the social interactions of mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki): (i) Attraction forces are important in maintaining group cohesion, while we find only weak evidence that fish align with their neighbor's orientation; (ii) repulsion is mediated principally by changes in speed; (iii) although the positions and directions of all shoal members are highly correlated, individuals only respond to their single nearest neighbor. The last two of these rules are different from the classical models of collective animal motion, raising new questions about how fish and other animals self-organize on the move.
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| 6. |
- Jones, Robert P., et al.
(författare)
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Patterns of Recurrence After Resection of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma : A Secondary Analysis of the ESPAC-4 Randomized Adjuvant Chemotherapy Trial
- 2019
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Ingår i: JAMA Surgery. - : AMER MEDICAL ASSOC. - 2168-6254 .- 2168-6262. ; 154:11, s. 1038-1048
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: The patterns of disease recurrence after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma with adjuvant chemotherapy remain unclear.Objective: To define patterns of recurrence after adjuvant chemotherapy and the association with survival.Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospectively collected data from the phase 3 European Study Group for Pancreatic Cancer 4 adjuvant clinical trial, an international multicenter study. The study included 730 patients who had resection and adjuvant chemotherapy for pancreatic cancer. Data were analyzed between July 2017 and May 2019.Interventions: Randomization to adjuvant gemcitabine or gemcitabine plus capecitabine.Main Outcomes and Measures: Overall survival, recurrence, and sites of recurrence.Results: Of the 730 patients, median age was 65 years (range 37-81 years), 414 were men (57%), and 316 were women (43%). The median follow-up time from randomization was 43.2 months (95% CI, 39.7-45.5 months), with overall survival from time of surgery of 27.9 months (95% CI, 24.8-29.9 months) with gemcitabine and 30.2 months (95% CI, 25.8-33.5 months) with the combination (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.68-0.98; P=.03). The 5-year survival estimates were 17.1% (95% CI, 11.6%-23.5%) and 28.0% (22.0%-34.3%), respectively. Recurrence occurred in 479 patients (65.6%); another 78 patients (10.7%) died without recurrence. Local recurrence occurred at a median of 11.63 months (95% CI, 10.05-12.19 months), significantly different from those with distant recurrence with a median of 9.49 months (95% CI, 8.44-10.71 months) (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.01-1.45; P=.04). Following recurrence, the median survival was 9.36 months (95% CI, 8.08-10.48 months) for local recurrence and 8.94 months (95% CI, 7.82-11.17 months) with distant recurrence (HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.73-1.09; P=.27). The median overall survival of patients with distant-only recurrence (23.03 months; 95% CI, 19.55-25.85 months) or local with distant recurrence (23.82 months; 95% CI, 17.48-28.32 months) was not significantly different from those with only local recurrence (24.83 months; 95% CI, 22.96-27.63 months) (P=.85 and P=.35, respectively). Gemcitabine plus capecitabine had a 21% reduction of death following recurrence compared with monotherapy (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.64-0.98; P=.03).Conclusions and Relevance: There were no significant differences between the time to recurrence and subsequent and overall survival between local and distant recurrence. Pancreatic cancer behaves as a systemic disease requiring effective systemic therapy after resection.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00058201, EudraCT 2007-004299-38, and ISRCTN 96397434. This secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial investigates patterns of recurrence after adjuvant chemotherapy in pancreatic cancer and the association with survival.
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| 7. |
- Mann, R. P., et al.
(författare)
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A model comparison reveals dynamic social information drives the movements of humbug damselfish (Dascyllus aruanus)
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of the Royal Society Interface. - : The Royal Society. - 1742-5689 .- 1742-5662. ; 11:90, s. 20130794-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Animals make use a range of social information to inform their movement decisions. One common movement rule, found across many different species, is that the probability that an individual moves to an area increases with the number of conspecifics there. However, in many cases, it remains unclear what social cues produce this and other similar movement rules. Here, we investigate what cues are used by damselfish (Dascyllus aruanus) when repeatedly crossing back and forth between two coral patches in an experimental arena. We find that an individual's decision to move is best predicted by the recent movements of conspecifics either to or from that individual's current habitat. Rather than actively seeking attachment to a larger group, individuals are instead prioritizing highly local and dynamic information with very limited spatial and temporal ranges. By reanalysing data in which the same species crossed for the first time to a new coral patch, we show that the individuals use static cues in this case. This suggests that these fish alter their information usage according to the structure and familiarity of their environment by using stable information when moving to a novel area and localized dynamic information when moving between familiar areas.
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| 8. |
- Mann, Richard P., et al.
(författare)
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Multi-scale Inference of Interaction Rules in Animal Groups Using Bayesian Model Selection
- 2013
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Ingår i: PloS Computational Biology. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-734X .- 1553-7358. ; 9:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Inference of interaction rules of animals moving in groups usually relies on an analysis of large scale system behaviour. Models are tuned through repeated simulation until they match the observed behaviour. More recent work has used the fine scale motions of animals to validate and fit the rules of interaction of animals in groups. Here, we use a Bayesian methodology to compare a variety of models to the collective motion of glass prawns (Paratya australiensis). We show that these exhibit a stereotypical 'phase transition', whereby an increase in density leads to the onset of collective motion in one direction. We fit models to this data, which range from: a mean-field model where all prawns interact globally; to a spatial Markovian model where prawns are self-propelled particles influenced only by the current positions and directions of their neighbours; up to non-Markovian models where prawns have 'memory' of previous interactions, integrating their experiences over time when deciding to change behaviour. We show that the mean-field model fits the large scale behaviour of the system, but does not capture the observed locality of interactions. Traditional self-propelled particle models fail to capture the fine scale dynamics of the system. The most sophisticated model, the non-Markovian model, provides a good match to the data at both the fine scale and in terms of reproducing global dynamics, while maintaining a biologically plausible perceptual range. We conclude that prawns' movements are influenced by not just the current direction of nearby conspecifics, but also those encountered in the recent past. Given the simplicity of prawns as a study system our research suggests that self-propelled particle models of collective motion should, if they are to be realistic at multiple biological scales, include memory of previous interactions and other non-Markovian effects.
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| 9. |
- Mann, Richard P., et al.
(författare)
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Multi-scale Inference of Interaction Rules in Animal Groups Using Bayesian Model Selection
- 2012
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Ingår i: PloS Computational Biology. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-734X .- 1553-7358. ; 8:1, s. e1002308-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Inference of interaction rules of animals moving in groups usually relies on an analysis of large scale system behaviour. Models are tuned through repeated simulation until they match the observed behaviour. More recent work has used the fine scale motions of animals to validate and fit the rules of interaction of animals in groups. Here, we use a Bayesian methodology to compare a variety of models to the collective motion of glass prawns (Paratya australiensis). We show that these exhibit a stereotypical 'phase transition', whereby an increase in density leads to the onset of collective motion in one direction. We fit models to this data, which range from: a mean-field model where all prawns interact globally; to a spatial Markovian model where prawns are self-propelled particles influenced only by the current positions and directions of their neighbours; up to non-Markovian models where prawns have 'memory' of previous interactions, integrating their experiences over time when deciding to change behaviour. We show that the mean-field model fits the large scale behaviour of the system, but does not capture fine scale rules of interaction, which are primarily mediated by physical contact. Conversely, the Markovian self-propelled particle model captures the fine scale rules of interaction but fails to reproduce global dynamics. The most sophisticated model, the non-Markovian model, provides a good match to the data at both the fine scale and in terms of reproducing global dynamics. We conclude that prawns' movements are influenced by not just the current direction of nearby conspecifics, but also those encountered in the recent past. Given the simplicity of prawns as a study system our research suggests that self-propelled particle models of collective motion should, if they are to be realistic at multiple biological scales, include memory of previous interactions and other non-Markovian effects.
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
- Strömbom, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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Solving the shepherding problem : Heuristics for herding autonomous, interacting agents
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of the Royal Society Interface. - : The Royal Society. - 1742-5689 .- 1742-5662. ; 11:100, s. 20140719-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Herding of sheep by dogs is a powerful example of one individual causing many unwilling individuals to move in the same direction. Similar phenomena are central to crowd control, cleaning the environment and other engineering problems. Despite single dogs solving this 'shepherding problem' every day, it remains unknown which algorithm they employ or whether a general algorithm exists for shepherding. Here, we demonstrate such an algorithm, based on adaptive switching between collecting the agents when they are too dispersed and driving them once they are aggregated. Our algorithm reproduces key features of empirical data collected from sheep-dog interactions and suggests new ways in which robots can be designed to influence movements of living and artificial agents.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- Blomqvist, Björn R. H., et al.
(författare)
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Inferring the dynamics of rising radical right-wing party support using Gaussian processes
- 2019
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Ingår i: Philosophical Transactions. Series A. - : ROYAL SOC. - 1364-503X .- 1471-2962. ; 377:2160
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The use of classical regression techniques in social science can prevent the discovery of complex, nonlinear mechanisms and often relies too heavily on both the expertise and prior expectations of the data analyst. In this paper, we present a regression methodology that combines the interpretability of traditional, well used, statistical methods with the full predictability and flexibility of Bayesian statistics techniques. Our modelling approach allows us to find and explain the mechanisms behind the rise of Radical Right-wing Populist parties (RRPs) that we would have been unable to find using traditional methods. Using Swedish municipality-level data (2002-2018), we find no evidence that the proportion of foreign-born residents is predictive of increases in RRP support. Instead, education levels and population density are the significant variables that impact the change in support for the RRP, in addition to spatial and temporal control variables. We argue that our methodology, which produces models with considerably better fit of the complexity and nonlinearities often found in social systems, provides a better tool for hypothesis testing and exploration of theories about RRPs and other social movements. This article is part of the theme issue 'Coupling functions: dynamical interaction mechanisms in the physical, biological and social sciences'.
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| 15. |
- Blomqvist, Björn R. H., et al.
(författare)
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Using Bayesian dynamical systems, model averaging and neural networks to determine interactions between socio-economic indicators
- 2018
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE. - 1932-6203. ; 13:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Social and economic systems produce complex and nonlinear relationships in the indicator variables that describe them. We present a Bayesian methodology to analyze the dynamical relationships between indicator variables by identifying the nonlinear functions that best describe their interactions. We search for the 'best' explicit functions by fitting data using Bayesian linear regression on a vast number of models and then comparing their Bayes factors. The model with the highest Bayes factor, having the best trade-off between explanatory power and interpretability, is chosen as the 'best' model. To be able to compare a vast number of models, we use conjugate priors, resulting in fast computation times. We check the robustness of our approach by comparison with more prediction oriented approaches such as model averaging and neural networks. Our modelling approach is illustrated using the classical example of how democracy and economic growth relate to each other. We find that the best dynamical model for democracy suggests that long term democratic increase is only possible if the economic situation gets better. No robust model explaining economic development using these two variables was found.
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| 16. |
- Cornforth, Daniel M., et al.
(författare)
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Synergy and Group Size in Microbial Cooperation
- 2012
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Ingår i: American Naturalist. - : University of Chicago Press. - 0003-0147 .- 1537-5323. ; 180:3, s. 296-305
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Microbes produce many molecules that are important for their growth and development, and the exploitation of these secretions by nonproducers has recently become an important paradigm in microbial social evolution. Although the production of these public-goods molecules has been studied intensely, little is known of how the benefits accrued and the costs incurred depend on the quantity of public-goods molecules produced. We focus here on the relationship between the shape of the benefit curve and cellular density, using a model assuming three types of benefit functions: diminishing, accelerating, and sigmoidal (accelerating and then diminishing). We classify the latter two as being synergistic and argue that sigmoidal curves are common in microbial systems. Synergistic benefit curves interact with group sizes to give very different expected evolutionary dynamics. In particular, we show that whether and to what extent microbes evolve to produce public goods depends strongly on group size. We show that synergy can create an "evolutionary trap" that can stymie the establishment and maintenance of cooperation. By allowing density-dependent regulation of production (quorum sensing), we show how this trap may be avoided. We discuss the implications of our results on experimental design.
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| 17. |
- Mann, Richard P., et al.
(författare)
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Choice modelling with Gaussian processes in the social sciences : A case study of neighbourhood choice in Stockholm
- 2018
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE. - 1932-6203. ; 13:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a non parametric extension of the conditional logit model, using Gaussian process priors. The conditional logit model is used in quantitative social science for inferring interaction effects between personal features and choice characteristics from observations of individual multinomial decisions, such as where to live, which car to buy or which school to choose. The classic, parametric model presupposes a latent utility function that is a linear combination of choice characteristics and their interactions with personal features. This imposes strong and unrealistic constraints on the form of individuals' preferences. Extensions using non-linear basis functions derived from the original features can ameliorate this problem but at the cost of high model complexity and increased reliance on the user in model specification. In this paper we develop a non-parametric conditional logit model based on Gaussian process logit models. We demonstrate its application on housing choice data from over 50,000 moving households from the Stockholm area over a two year period to reveal complex homophilic patterns in income, ethnicity and parental status.
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| 18. |
- Mann, Richard P., et al.
(författare)
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Non-Linear Choice Modelling with Gaussian Processes : A Case Study of Neighbourhood Choice in Stockholm
- 2016
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We present a non-parametric extension of the conditional logit model, using Gaussian pro- cess priors. The conditional logit model is used in quantitative social science for inferring interaction effects between personal features and choice characteristics from observations of individual multinomial decisions, such as where to live, which car to buy or which school to choose. The classic, parametric model presupposes a latent utility function that is a linear combination of choice characteristics and their interactions with personal features. This imposes strong and unrealistic constraints on the form of individuals’ preferences. Extensions using non-linear basis functions derived from the original features can ameliorate this problem but at the cost of high model complexity and increased reliance on the user in model specification. In this paper we develop a novel, non-parametric conditional logit model based on Gaussian process logit models. We demonstrate its application on housing choice data from over 50,000 moving households from the Stockholm area over a two year period to reveal complex homophilic patterns in income, ethnicity and parental status.
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| 19. |
- Mann, Richard P., et al.
(författare)
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The dynamics of audience applause
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of the Royal Society Interface. - : The Royal Society. - 1742-5689 .- 1742-5662. ; 10:85, s. 20130466-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The study of social identity and crowd psychology looks at how and why individual people change their behaviour in response to others. Within a group, a new behaviour can emerge first in a few individuals before it spreads rapidly to all other members. A number of mathematical models have been hypothesized to describe these social contagion phenomena, but these models remain largely untested against empirical data. We used Bayesian model selection to test between various hypotheses about the spread of a simple social behaviour, applause after an academic presentation. Individuals' probability of starting clapping increased in proportion to the number of other audience members already 'infected' by this social contagion, regardless of their spatial proximity. The cessation of applause is similarly socially mediated, but is to a lesser degree controlled by the reluctance of individuals to clap too many times. We also found consistent differences between individuals in their willingness to start and stop clapping. The social contagion model arising from our analysis predicts that the time the audience spends clapping can vary considerably, even in the absence of any differences in the quality of the presentations they have heard.
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| 20. |
- Ranganathan, Shyam, et al.
(författare)
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Bayesian Dynamical Systems Modelling in the Social Sciences
- 2014
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 9:1, s. e86468-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Data arising from social systems is often highly complex, involving non-linear relationships between the macro-level variables that characterize these systems. We present a method for analyzing this type of longitudinal or panel data using differential equations. We identify the best non-linear functions that capture interactions between variables, employing Bayes factor to decide how many interaction terms should be included in the model. This method punishes overly complicated models and identifies models with the most explanatory power. We illustrate our approach on the classic example of relating democracy and economic growth, identifying non-linear relationships between these two variables. We show how multiple variables and variable lags can be accounted for and provide a toolbox in R to implement our approach.
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| 21. |
- Sasaki, Takao, et al.
(författare)
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Ant colonies outperform individuals when a sensory discrimination task is difficult but not when it is easy
- 2013
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 110:34, s. 13769-13773
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- "Collective intelligence" and "wisdom of crowds" refer to situations in which groups achieve more accurate perception and better decisions than solitary agents. Whether groups outperform individuals should depend on the kind of task and its difficulty, but the nature of this relationship remains unknown. Here we show that colonies of Temnothorax ants outperform individuals for a difficult perception task but that individuals do better than groups when the task is easy. Subjects were required to choose the better of two nest sites as the quality difference was varied. For small differences, colonies were more likely than isolated ants to choose the better site, but this relationship was reversed for large differences. We explain these results using a mathematical model, which shows that positive feedback between group members effectively integrates information and sharpens the discrimination of fine differences. When the task is easier the same positive feedback can lock the colony into a suboptimal choice. These results suggest the conditions under which crowds do or do not become wise.
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| 22. |
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| 23. |
- Spaiser, Viktoria, et al.
(författare)
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The Dynamics of Democracy, Development and Cultural Values
- 2014
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 9:6, s. e97856-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past decades many countries have experienced rapid changes in their economies, their democratic institutions and the values of their citizens. Comprehensive data measuring these changes across very different countries has recently become openly available. Between country similarities suggest common underlying dynamics in how countries develop in terms of economy, democracy and cultural values. We apply a novel Bayesian dynamical systems approach to identify the model which best captures the complex, mainly non-linear dynamics that underlie these changes. We show that the level of Human Development Index (HDI) in a country drives first democracy and then higher emancipation of citizens. This change occurs once the countries pass a certain threshold in HDI. The data also suggests that there is a limit to the growth of wealth, set by higher emancipation. Having reached a high level of democracy and emancipation, societies tend towards equilibrium that does not support further economic growth. Our findings give strong empirical evidence against a popular political science theory, known as the Human Development Sequence. Contrary to this theory, we find that implementation of human-rights and democratisation precede increases in emancipative values.
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| 24. |
- Sumpter, David J. T., et al.
(författare)
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The modelling cycle for collective animal behaviour
- 2012
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Ingår i: INTERFACE FOCUS. - : The Royal Society. - 2042-8898 .- 2042-8901. ; 2:6, s. 764-773
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Collective animal behaviour is the study of how interactions between individuals produce group level patterns, and why these interactions have evolved. This study has proved itself uniquely interdisciplinary, involving physicists, mathematicians, engineers as well as biologists. Almost all experimental work in this area is related directly or indirectly to mathematical models, with regular movement back and forth between models, experimental data and statistical fitting. In this paper, we describe how the modelling cycle works in the study of collective animal behaviour. We classify studies as addressing questions at different levels or linking different levels, i.e. as local, local to global, global to local or global. We also describe three distinct approaches-theory-driven, data-driven and model selection-to these questions. We show, with reference to our own research on species across different taxa, how we move between these different levels of description and how these various approaches can be applied to link levels together.
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| 25. |
- Zabzina, Natalia, et al.
(författare)
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Symmetry Restoring Bifurcation in Collective Decision-Making
- 2014
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Ingår i: PloS Computational Biology. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-734X .- 1553-7358. ; 10:12, s. e1003960-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How social groups and organisms decide between alternative feeding sites or shelters has been extensively studied both experimentally and theoretically. One key result is the existence of a symmetry-breaking bifurcation at a critical system size, where there is a switch from evenly distributed exploitation of all options to a focussed exploitation of just one. Here we present a decision-making model in which symmetry-breaking is followed by a symmetry restoring bifurcation, whereby very large systems return to an even distribution of exploitation amongst options. The model assumes local positive feedback, coupled with a negative feedback regulating the flow toward the feeding sites. We show that the model is consistent with three different strains of the slime mold Physarum polycephalum, choosing between two feeding sites. We argue that this combination of feedbacks could allow collective foraging organisms to react flexibly in a dynamic environment.
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| 26. |
- Ågerstrand, Marlene, et al.
(författare)
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Improving Environmental Risk Assessment of Human Pharmaceuticals
- 2015
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Ingår i: Environmental Science & Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 49:9, s. 5336-5345
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents 10 recommendations for improving the European Medicines Agency's guidance for environmental risk assessment of human pharmaceutical products. The recommendations are based on up-to-date, available science in combination with experiences from other chemical frameworks such as the REACH-legislation for industrial chemicals. The recommendations concern: expanding the scope of the current guideline; requirements to assess the risk for development of antibiotic resistance; jointly performed assessments; refinement of the test proposal; mixture toxicity assessments on active pharmaceutical ingredients with similar modes of action; use of all available ecotoxicity studies; mandatory reviews; increased transparency; inclusion of emission data from production; and a risk management option. We believe that implementation of our recommendations would strengthen the protection of the environment and be beneficial to society. Legislation and guidance documents need to be updated at regular intervals in order to incorporate new knowledge from the scientific community. This is particularly important for regulatory documents concerning pharmaceuticals in the environment since this is a research field that has been growing substantially in the last decades.
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