| 1. |
- Brosché, Johan, 1978-, et al.
(författare)
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Nio punkter för global fred (Nine Points for Global Peace)
- 2015
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Annan publikation (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Insatserna för global fred måste stärkas skriver tolv företrädare för institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning apropå att världens ledare samlas i dag i New York för att anta 17 nya globala mål för en bättre värld och mer hållbar utveckling.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Söderberg Kovacs, Mimmi, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Krisen kräver medling
- 2014
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Ingår i: Dala-Demokraten. - Falun : AB Dalademokraten.
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)
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| 5. |
- Tritschoks, Annkatrin
(författare)
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Settling the Scales : Justice in International Environmental Negotiations and Beyond
- 2020
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Parties to international negotiations typically invoke conflicting notions of justice. If these can be reconciled, this has positive effects on the negotiation process and outcome. If conflicts over justice persist, negotiations can stall or result in suboptimal outcomes. However, research to date paid scant attention to the means by which justice in international negotiations can be attained. This dissertation addresses this gap and studies two aspects of justice in international negotiations, as well as factors that shape them. The first two essays of the composite dissertation focus on perceptions of justice during negotiations; the latter two on shared justice formulas that parties devise to guide the negotiations. The empirical focus lies primarily on international environmental negotiations – an issue area where justice is central and often explicitly addressed. The final essay extends the analysis of justice to the Cyprus Talks – negotiations on a protracted social conflict that share some key characteristics with environmental negotiations in terms of complexity and interlinkages. Essay I develops the concept of justice and suggests a comprehensive approach to justice in international environmental negotiations. This conceptualization better explains variations in parties’ perceptions of justice than conventional approaches, which only cover some of the four components identified in the comprehensive approach. Essay II finds that the relationship between the chairperson and the negotiating parties affects perceptions of justice. Justice is attained, when the actors involved build a cooperative relationship based on their ability to form expectations and on a positive assessment of their exchange. If necessary, such relationship formation can be facilitated through the involvement of intermediary actors. Essay III distinguishes between three different types of shared justice formula that parties devise in international environmental negotiations. A cursory analysis shows that different explanatory factors shape the different types of shared justice formula, which furthermore are linked in different ways to negotiation effectiveness, both fruitful avenues for future research. Essay IV finds that ripeness theory – in a modified form that accounts for complexity and relationships among a multitude of players – helps to explain when parties devise a shared justice formula to guide negotiations. In conjunction, the essays contribute to current debates in the literature on justice and international negotiations, by taking account of complexity in the study of justice, and by stressing the importance of relationship formation with actors beyond the negotiating parties to attain justice.
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| 6. |
- Aggestam, Karin, et al.
(författare)
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Where Are the Women in Peace Mediation?
- 2018
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Ingår i: Gendering Diplomacy and International Negotiation. - Cham : Palgrave Macmillan. - 9783319586816 ; , s. 149-168
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
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| 7. |
- Bamber, Matthew, et al.
(författare)
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Resisting Radical Rebels : Variations in Islamist Rebel Governance and the Occurrence of Civil Resistance
- 2023
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Ingår i: Terrorism and Political Violence. - : Taylor & Francis. - 0954-6553 .- 1556-1836. ; 35:5, s. 1126-1146
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- During the Syrian civil war, different types of Salafi-Jihadi rebel groups controlled territory and established governance over civilians. Their governing strategies have been markedly diverse. In this study, we explore how this governance variation can help to explain the occurrence of civil resistance. We suggest that different types of rebel governance structures provide political opportunities for civilians to mobilize against those rebel groups through public demonstrations. In particular, we argue that it is middle-ranged opportunity structures of rebel governance that strongest incentivizes civil resistance, by giving enough space for civilian mobilization but fewer alternative channels of expressing discontent. This argument is explored through an analysis of the variation between the three main Salafi-Jihadi rebel groups in Syria – IS, HTS and Ahrar al-Sham. We show how differences in the groups’ four rebel governance dimensions – rebel collaboration, civilian inclusion, alliance structure, and repression – impact the political opportunities for civilians to mobilize against these groups. We find that HTS, the group that is in the middle range across these four governance dimensions, provided greater opportunity for civilian protests. This study uses a new dataset of civilian resistance events in Syria as well as interviews with civilians governed by these groups.
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| 8. |
- Bobekova, Elvira, et al.
(författare)
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Rivers of Peace : Institutionalized Mekong River Cooperation and The East Asian Peace
- 2013
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Ingår i: European Journal of East Asian Studies. - : Brill. - 1568-0584 .- 1570-0615. ; 12, s. 7-34
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- East Asia represents a remarkable example of a region that has transformed from one of the most violent in the world, in terms of interstate wars and internationalised intrastate conflicts, towards a relatively peaceful region. What explains East Asian peace? This study adopts an institutional perspective, arguing that a crucial role in the creation and development of East Asia’s peace, and in the Mekong region in particular, has been the emergence of transnational river cooperation in the Mekong Basin. It examines the nature and drivers of such institutional cooperation. Explanations can be found in a combination of external support from third parties, and an internal economic growth imperative held by the Mekong states themselves. It provides useful policy lessons for the creation and development of peace and cooperation through institution-building.
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| 9. |
- Butcher, Charles, et al.
(författare)
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Manufacturing Dissent : Modernization and the Onset of Major Nonviolent Resistance Campaigns
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - Thousand Oaks : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 60:2, s. 311-339
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A growing research field examines the conditions under which major nonviolent resistance campaigns—that is, popular nonviolent uprisings for regime or territorial change—are successful. Why these campaigns emerge in the first place is less well understood. We argue that extensive social networks that are economically interdependent with the state make strategic nonviolence more feasible. These networks are larger and more powerful in states whose economies rely upon organized labor. Global quantitative analysis of the onset of violent and nonviolent campaigns from 1960 to 2006 (NAVCO), and major protest events in Africa from 1990 to 2009 (SCAD) shows that the likelihood of nonviolent conflict onset increases with the proportion of manufacturing to gross domestic product. This study points to a link between modernization and social conflict, a link that has been often hypothesized, but, hitherto, unsupported by empirical studies.
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| 10. |
- Duursma, Allard, et al.
(författare)
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Introducing an Agenda-based Measurement of Mediation Success : The Divergent Effects of the Manipulation Strategy in African Civil Wars
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Negotiation. - : Brill. - 1382-340X .- 1571-8069. ; 24:2, s. 296-323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Previous quantitative mediation research has relied on generalized measurements of "mediation success," such as agreements, ceasefires or peace durability. However, these measurements of success do not take into account what mediators were mandated to achieve. We propose benchmarking outcomes against the explicit mandates of the interventions, a novel way of conceptualizing mediation success. Utilizing data on the agendas of mediated negotiations in intrastate armed conflicts in Africa between 1990 and 2010 as a proxy for mediation mandates, we examine the relative effectiveness of manipulation as a mediation strategy. The study shows, in contrast to previous research, that third party manipulation does not have a significant effect on whether the goal of a given round of negotiations is achieved and, that under some circumstances, may decrease the likelihood of mediation success. We discuss the opportunities as well as limitations of a mandate-based approach to the study of mediation success.
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| 11. |
- Engvall, Anders, et al.
(författare)
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Peace Talks and Valid Spokespersons : Explaining the Onset of Negotiations in Southern Thailand
- 2020
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Ingår i: International Negotiation. - : Brill. - 1382-340X .- 1571-8069. ; 25:3, s. 495-518
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There have been several attempts to find negotiated solutions to the armed conflicts in Southern Thailand. Yet, these attempts of accommodation and mediated peace negotiations were aborted without any concrete results, with the exception of a formal peace process being officially launched in 2013. What explains the readiness of the parties to the conflict to enter negotiations at this stage, but not at earlier attempts? We argue that the political context can help to explain why some negotiation attempts result in negotiations, whereas others do not. We analyze the factors behind the readiness of the two sides - the Thai state and the Patani separatist insurgency - to sit down for official peace negotiations, focusing on the presence of valid spokespersons, which is an understudied element of 'ripeness'. This case demonstrates that the problem of finding valid spokespersons may be an obstacle for peace processes especially in religiously defined conflicts.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Finnbogason, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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The missing jihad : Why have there been no jihadist civil wars in Southeast Asia?
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Pacific Review. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0951-2748 .- 1470-1332. ; 31:1, s. 96-115
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Why has there been no jihadist civil war in Southeast Asia? Although there has been a global surge in armed conflicts where at least one side fights for self-proclaimed Islamist aspirations, the region of Southeast Asia stands out by not having experienced a single jihadist civil war after 1975. Yet, so far, there have been no systematic comparisons of the frequency and nature of the Islamist violence in Southeast Asia and the rest of the world. This study therefore contributes by exploring the empirical trajectories in the region and situating Southeast Asia to global developments, utilizing new and unique data on religiously defined armed conflicts 1975-2015. We find that whereas the number of people killed in Islamist violence has increased in the rest of the world, it has decreased in Southeast Asia. We argue that Southeast Asia has prevented outbreaks of jihadist civil wars, and contained and partially resolved ongoing Islamist conflicts before they have escalated, due to three interrelated factors: the lack of internationalization of Islamist conflicts in the region, the openness of political channels for voicing Islamist aspirations, and government repression. This article suggests insights from the region that can be valuable from a global perspective.
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
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| 17. |
- Höglund, Kristine, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Schizophrenic Soothers : The International Community and Contrast Strategies for Peace-making in Sri Lanka
- 2011
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Ingår i: Cooperation and Conflict. - : SAGE Publications. - 0010-8367 .- 1460-3691. ; 46:2, s. 166-184
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How can the international community influence belligerents in internal armed conflict to movetowards peace? Research on influence strategies in international relations commonly stressesthe importance of a combined ‘carrot-and-sticks’ approach, yet little is known about how thismixed strategy is best applied in the context of internal armed conflict. The article addresses thisquestion by developing a theoretical framework exploring the conditions under which the mixedapproach is successful in influencing conflict actors and by focusing specifically on non-state actors.It is argued that the effectiveness of the contrast strategy in dealing with non-state actors dependson the balance between the ‘good cop’ approach and the ‘bad cop’ approach, the perceptions ofthe targets and contextual adoption of the sequencing of strategies. We apply this framework tothe case of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka between 2002 and 2008,when the international community’s initial success later turned into a failed attempt to influencethe LTTE in the direction of respect for human rights, in ending the violation of the ceasefire andin preventing a return to the battlefield.
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| 18. |
- Höglund, Kristine, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Should I Stay or Should I Go? : Termination as a Tactic and Norwegian Mediation in Sri Lanka
- 2011
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Ingår i: Negotiation and Conflict Management Research. - : Wiley. - 1750-4708 .- 1750-4716. ; 4:1, s. 12-32
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- What explains a mediator’s choice of tactic when faced with a situation of crisis? This article focuses on mediation in internal armed conflicts and on one particular mediation tactic: the use of the exit option as a means to pressure the parties to enter into negotiations and make concessions to end the war. We examine the conditions under which the exit option—here referred to as the termination tactic—is likely to be used. Utilizing a cost–benefit approach, we develop a theoretical framework for understanding when mediators will employ the termination tactic. The framework is applied to four crises in the Sri Lankan peace process (2000–2006), during which Norway acted as a mediator. The analysis indicates that the termination tactic is employed when mediators (a) expect few rewards from involvement in the process, (b) deem other tactics as being ineffective, and (c) perceive that the parties have incentives for mediation.
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| 19. |
- Johnstone, Naomi, et al.
(författare)
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Believers and Belligerents : Exploring Faith-Based Mediation in Internal Armed Conflicts
- 2013
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Ingår i: Politics, Religion & Ideology. - London : Taylor & Francis. - 2156-7689 .- 2156-7697. ; 14:4, s. 556-577
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study explores faith-based mediation in armed conflict, that is, diplomatic initiatives taken by explicitly religious organisations in order to settle or manage armed conflicts through some process of dialogue with the warring parties. Whereas previous research on religious peacemaking in general, and on faith-based mediation in particular, have been dominated by case analysis, anecdotal evidence and conceptual work, this study presents the first global cross-country dataset on faith-based mediations in armed conflicts. In this descriptive analysis, we map the empirical landscape of faith-based mediation in armed conflicts around the world, during the time period 1989–2008. Utilising and developing a typology from Cynthia Sampson [‘Religion and Peacebuilding’ in I.W. Zartman and L.J. Rasmussen (eds) Peacemaking in International Conflict (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2002)], this study generates three major findings, (1) faith-based mediation primarily occurs in situations where religion is not part of the conflict itself; (2) the organisation of faith-based mediation are significantly different in the Christian and the Islamic contexts; and (3) there is decrease in frequency of faith-based mediation over the studied time period, which could indicate a trend of decreasing international peacemaking engagement from the faith-based communities. Our descriptive analysis opens up new avenues for future empirical work on the occurrence, dynamics and effects of faith-based mediation.
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| 20. |
- Karakus, Dogukan Cansin, et al.
(författare)
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Between the Bombs : Exploring Partial Ceasefires in the Syrian Civil War, 2011–2017
- 2020
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Ingår i: Terrorism and Political Violence. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0954-6553 .- 1556-1836. ; 32:4, s. 681-700
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Previous research on ceasefires in armed conflicts has primarily focused on the aggregated country-level of analysis. By contrast, this article contributes by examining the local-level dynamics of local ceasefire arrangements. In particular, this study examines a novel set of 106 local-level ceasefire arrangements in the Syrian Civil War, reached between the years 2011 to 2017. Most (72 percent), but not all, of the ceasefire arrangements were respected during the stipulated time period. We argue that informal and domestic peacemaking should outperform formal and external approaches in managing conflicts with multiple rebel groups, ongoing violence, and different fronts such as in Syria. We find that the presence of insider mediators (“insider-partial”) as well as confidence-building measures between the belligerents are positively associated with successful ceasefire arrangements, whereas explanations emphasized by previous research—external third-party mediation as well as various indicators of quality of agreement—fail to explain outcomes of ceasefires. Yet, we also find some evidence indicative of a selection effect in that external mediators are associated with more difficult conflict situations. The study of local ceasefires in the Syrian Civil War can stimulate further examinations of the micro-dynamics of peacemaking in civil wars, including the causes and consequences of local ceasefires.
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| 21. |
- Krause, Dino, et al.
(författare)
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Why Is There So Little Shia-Sunni Dialogue? : Understanding the Deficit of Intra-Muslim Dialogue and Interreligious Peacemaking
- 2019
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Ingår i: Religions. - : MDPI AG. - 2077-1444. ; 10:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite a growth in fatalities resulting from organized violence with Shia-Sunni dimensions over the last two decades, in this study, we show, using existing data-bases on interreligious dialogue and peacemaking, that only less than two percent of the interreligious peacemaking organizations in the world are specialized in dialogue between Shias and Sunnis. Why is there so little institutionalized Shia-Sunni dialogue occurring when the need for such dialogue is evident? This study identifies and discusses this lack of institutional initiatives designed to prevent violence, manage conflicts and facilitate processes of intra-Muslim de-sectarianization. We discuss what we see as the three seemingly most obvious explanations-(1) the dismissal of the relevance of a Shia-Sunni cleavage, (2) the inappropriateness of the interreligious dialogue concept in the Muslim context, and (3) the substitution of institutional interreligious dialogue by other channels. Although we suggest that the third is the most potent explanation to pursue, we do not aim to provide a comprehensive explanation for the Shia-Sunni religious dialogue deficit. Instead, our aspiration is mainly to present and substantiate a puzzle that has not been identified or discussed in previous research. This can set an agenda for a reinvigorated research endeavor into the contemporary challenges for interreligious peacemaking.
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| 22. |
- Kreutz, Joakim, 1973-, et al.
(författare)
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The East Asian Peace : will it last?
- 2017
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Ingår i: Debating the East Asian Peace. - Copenhagen : NIAS Press. - 9788776942199 ; , s. 281-296
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
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| 23. |
- Lundgren, Magnus, 1976-, et al.
(författare)
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Leanings and Dealings : Exploring Bias and Trade Leverage in Civil War Mediation by International Organizations
- 2014
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Ingår i: International Negotiation. - Leiden : Brill Academic Publishers. - 1382-340X .- 1571-8069. ; 19:2, s. 315-342
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Two characteristics of mediators – bias and leverage – are discussed intensively in the research on international mediation. However, whereas bias and leverage have been examined in mediation by states, relatively little is known about their role in mediation by international organizations (ios). This study provides new ways of conceptualizing io bias and leverage and utilizes unique data to measure the impact of io bias and leverage on mediation outcomes. Exploring all cases of civil war mediation by ios in the period 1975–2004, we find that ios where member states provide support to both sides in a conflict outperform ios whose member states remain disinterested. ios with significant trade leverage also increase the likelihood of mediation success. The study demonstrates that ios rarely have a neutral relationship to civil war combatants, that mediation by ios is laden with member state interests, and that such interests shape outcomes.
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| 24. |
- Lundgren, Magnus, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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Local Ceasefires and De-escalation : Evidence From the Syrian Civil War
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 67:7-8, s. 1350-1375
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Local ceasefire agreements are prevalent in modern civil wars, but we know little about their impact. This study analyzes geo-referenced data on 145 local ceasefire agreements declared during the Syrian Civil War, 2011-2019, exploring their short- and long-term effects on the intensity of armed violence. Drawing on scholarship on gradual confidence-building processes, we theorize the conditions under which local ceasefire agreements may generate trust and reduce conflict intensity. Using interrupted time-series analysis and spatial panel regression, we examine factors relating to the design and strategic context of ceasefire agreements. We find that local ceasefire agreements can trigger both escalation and de-escalation in the short term. De-escalatory outcomes are more likely in the long-term, when ceasefire signatories share a history of previous interaction, and when ceasefires are implemented in a stepwise fashion. We also find evidence of spatial diffusion: local ceasefire agreements in one area reduce conflict intensity in neighboring areas.
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| 25. |
- Lundgren, Magnus, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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The surprising decline of international mediation in armed conflicts
- 2020
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Ingår i: Research & Politics. - : SAGE Publications. - 2053-1680 .- 2053-1680. ; 7:2, s. 1-7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We identify and investigate a fundamental puzzle in contemporary mediation of armed conflicts. Although the preparedness of international mediators has increased, the proportion of armed conflicts that receive mediation has not increased, but decreased. Using quantitative data on the occurrence of mediation between 1989 and 2013, our analysis suggests that this puzzling contradiction cannot be explained by conflicts being more fragmented, intractable or internationalized. Instead, we argue that the puzzling decline of mediation can be explained by a mismatch between supply and demand in the international mediation ‘market’. Although there are more mediators available, the rise in the number of conflicts involving Islamist armed actors, coupled with increased reliance on terror-listing, especially since 2001, has placed a growing number of conflicts beyond the reach of international mediators. Our findings challenge the conventional belief that the post-Cold War era is characterized by high mediation rates and point to the need to develop the practice of mediation to maintain its relevance in the contemporary conflict landscape.
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| 26. |
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| 27. |
- Melin, Molly M., et al.
(författare)
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Incentives for Talking : Accepting Mediation in International and Civil Wars
- 2009
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Ingår i: International Interactions. - London : Gordon and Breach. - 0305-0629 .- 1547-7444. ; 35:3, s. 249-271
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper examines the conditions under which warring parties will accept an outside party's offer to mediate. Specifically, we explore variation in the incentives for accepting third-party offers in interstate conflicts as compared to civil wars. We argue that since mediation in civil wars transfers legitimacy to the non-state actor and can generate a precedent of exceptions to the norm of sovereignty, the political cost associated with accepting international mediation will be substantially higher in civil wars compared to international conflicts. States should therefore only accept mediation in the most serious disputes, or when the costs of legitimizing an opponent are outweighed by the benefits of conflict resolution. Building on this theoretical reasoning, the paper analyzes the implications of differences in incentive structures between inter- and intrastate conflicts for offer and acceptance of mediation. We find an empirical discrepancy between interstate and civil wars in regard to demand-side (acceptance) of mediation, and to a somewhat lesser extent the supply-side (offer) of international mediation. In line with our argument, we find that the historical ties between the potential intermediary and at least one of the disputants play different roles in regard to acceptance of mediation in interstate compared to civil wars. This is important to take into consideration in the emerging debate on mediation bias.
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| 28. |
- Mustasilta, Katariina, et al.
(författare)
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Divided We Fall : Ethnic Cleavages, Movement Cohesion, and the Risk of Escalation to Civil War in Non-Violent Uprisings
- 2023
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Ingår i: Civil Wars. - : Routledge. - 1369-8249 .- 1743-968X. ; 25:1, s. 103-136
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Why do some non-violent uprisings escalate into armed violence while others do not? We suggest that horizontal polarisation contributes to the escalation of non-violent campaigns. We examine the effect of ethnic cleavages between the campaign and its opponent and movement cohesion as explanatory factors for escalation into civil war and non-state violence. Statistical analysis of all major non-violent campaigns (1970-2014) shows that non-violent conflicts with ethnic cleavages have a higher risk of escalating into armed violence in particular, when the conflict takes place over governmental aims. The results also indicate that movement cohesion alleviates the risk of armed escalation.
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| 29. |
- Nilsson, Desirée, et al.
(författare)
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Civil society protests and inclusive peace talks
- 2023
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Annan publikation (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- What are the drivers of inclusion in peace negotiations? How can meaningful participation in peace processes be ensured? This research brief shows that civil society engagement, in the form of non-violent protests, demonstrations, or other forms of street action can help shape the conditions for inclusive peace talks in civil wars. We also present trends and patterns based on data on civil society engagement across civil wars in Africa, the Americas, and the Middle East. We propose three recommendations directed at international peacebuilding actors who strive to promote inclusive peace processes.This brief is part of a research brief series generated by a joint initiative by the Folke Bernadotte Academy (FBA) and the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD). The aim of the series is to contribute to policy development by bringing cutting-edge research on key issues within mediation to the attention of policy makers and practitioners. The topics to be explored in the series were selected during joint discussions within the FBA initiative “Improving Mediation Effectiveness” throughout 2021-2023. The Initiative brought together policymakers, practitioners, and researchers within the mediation field to discuss challenges and opportunities for greater effectiveness in mediation. The editorial committee has consisted of Dr. Niklas Hultin, Agnes Cronholm, Dr. Johanna Malm and Maja Jakobsson from FBA, and Andrea Prah from ACCORD. We would like to thank the members of the Mediation Support Network for comments. The views and opinions expressed in the brief series are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the collaborating partners.
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| 30. |
- Nilsson, Desirée, et al.
(författare)
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In the Streets and at the Table : Civil Society Coordination during Peace Negotiations
- 2020
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Ingår i: International Negotiation. - : Brill. - 1382-340X .- 1571-8069. ; 25:2, s. 225-251
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- When bringing armed conflicts to a peaceful end, the inclusion of civil society in peacemaking is a vital task. However, whereas previous research on civil society inclusion has made significant advancements, surprisingly little attention has been paid to analyzing how civil resistance and mass action may interact with more elite-driven approaches during peace processes. This study addresses this research gap by examining the interplay between elite and mass-based civil society approaches in three different peace processes in civil wars in Africa in the post-Cold War period: Liberia, the Central African Republic (CAR), and Burundi. We advance the literature by developing a framework that focuses on coordination of these different efforts and we explore this interplay empirically. With this study, we aim to broaden the research agenda, allowing for future synergies at the research frontier of mass action and the inclusion of civil society in peace processes.
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| 31. |
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| 32. |
- Nilsson, Desirée, et al.
(författare)
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Pushing the doors open : Nonviolent action and inclusion in peace negotiations
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Peace Research. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-3433 .- 1460-3578. ; 60:1, s. 58-72
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Whereas previous research shows that peace agreements which include a broad segment of society are more likely to lead to sustainable peace, little effort has gone into explaining inclusion itself. We address this gap in the literature by providing the first large-N study to examine the causes of inclusive peace negotiations across civil wars. We argue that civil society actors can gain leverage through mobilization of civilian protest, or build trust through dialogue efforts, thereby enhancing the chances of inclusion of non-warring actors at the negotiation table. The argument is examined by analysing unique and new monthly data on peacemaking efforts in all intrastate armed conflicts in Africa and the Americas, 1989–2018, including measures beyond mere nominal participation, such as whether civil society actors or political parties had substantive roles as either mediators or full participants at the peace talks. Our findings show that protests by civil society actors increase the likelihood that non-warring actors will have a seat at the negotiation table, whereas we find no such effect concerning dialogue efforts. The article contributes by providing new insights into how nonviolent action can shape peace processes by opening the doors to negotiations and is thus part of an emerging research agenda that seeks to bring together the fields of civil resistance and inclusive peace processes.
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| 33. |
- Nilsson, Desirée, et al.
(författare)
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Resisting Resolution : Islamist Claims and Negotiations in Intrastate Armed Conflicts
- 2020
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Ingår i: International Negotiation. - : Brill Nijhoff. - 1382-340X .- 1571-8069. ; 25:3, s. 389-412
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The prevalence of Islamist armed conflicts is an important problem of our time. One pivotal question that remains unexplored is whether conflicts fought over Islamist claims are more or less likely to be negotiated, and if so, why? This paper provides the first large-N study exploring the relationship between Islamist claims and negotiations in all intrastate armed conflicts for the time period 1975–2011. We argue that the transnational dimension can serve to make some Islamist conflicts resistant to peaceful resolution attempts. Our findings show that while conflicts over Islamist claims generally are no more likely to see negotiations, there is significant variation within this category. When we disaggregate Islamist conflicts, we find that transnational Islamist conflicts are less likely to experience negotiations, whereas conflicts fought over separatist or revolutionary Islamist claims are no more likely to see negotiations.
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| 34. |
- Nilsson, Desirée, et al.
(författare)
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The Intractability of Islamist Insurgencies : Islamist Rebels and the Recurrence of Civil War
- 2021
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Ingår i: International Studies Quarterly. - : Oxford University Press. - 0020-8833 .- 1468-2478. ; 65:3, s. 620-632
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is a large research field focusing on the recurrence of civil wars, yet this literature has omitted to seriously consider religious dimensions and ideational features of armed conflicts. To address this gap, we provide the first global study exploring whether, and why, Islamist civil wars—armed conflicts fought over self-proclaimed Islamist aspirations—are more or less likely to recur compared to other conflicts. We argue that civil wars fought over Islamist claims are more likely to relapse because the ideational features of these conflicts increase the uncertainty regarding the capabilities of the warring actors in terms of the extent and nature of transnational support that may be forthcoming, for rebels as well as the government. In line with our argument, we find that Islamist civil wars are significantly less likely to be terminated and more likely to recur once ended. Thus, our results demonstrate that Islamist civil wars represent a particular challenge with regard to the goal of achieving durable peace.
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| 35. |
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| 36. |
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| 37. |
- O'Dochartaigh, Niall, et al.
(författare)
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The Exit Option : Mediation and the Termination of Negotiations in the Northern Ireland Conflict
- 2013
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Ingår i: International Journal of Conflict Management. - Bingley : Emerald. - 1044-4068 .- 1758-8545. ; 24:1, s. 40-55
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the mediation exit option, which is one of the most important tactics available to any third party mediator.Design/methodology/approach – The paper analyzes a crucial intermediary channel between the Irish Republican Army (hereafter IRA) and the British Government utilizing unique material from the private papers of the intermediary, Brendan Duddy, including diaries that cover periods of intensive communication, extensive interviews with the intermediary and with participants in this communication on both the British Government and Irish Republican sides as well as recently released official papers from the UK National Archives relating to this communication.Findings – The study reveals how the intermediary channel was used in order to get information, how the third party and the primary parties traded in asymmetries of information, and how the intermediary utilized the information advantage to increase the credibility of his threats of termination.Research limitations/implications – The study outlines an avenue for further research on the termination dynamics of mediation.Practical implications – Understanding the conditions for successfully using the exit-option is vital for policy-makers, in particular for peace diplomacy efforts in other contexts than the Northern Ireland one.Originality/value – The paper challenges previous explanations for why threats by mediators to call off further mediation attempts are successful and argues that a mediator can use the parties' informational dependency on him in order to increase his leverage and push the parties towards settlement.
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| 38. |
-
Religion, Conflict, and Global Society : A Festschrift celebrating Mark Juergensmeyer
- 2021
-
Samlingsverk (redaktörskap) (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Mark Juergensmeyer is a world-renowned scholar, who has been a pioneer within the fields of global studies, conflict research and religious studies, and whose methods have inspired integrated and multidisciplinary approaches to understanding globalization, peace and conflict as well as religious violence.On the occasion of Mark Juergensmeyer’s retirement Mona Kanwal Sheikh (DIIS) and Isak Svensson (Uppsala University) have compiled an edited volume highlighting central debates and concepts within the fields of religious violence, conflict studies and global studies.Twenty-two leading scholars from around the world, and with a range of different diciplinary backgrounds, provide broadly accesible overviews of scholarly debates and institutional processes where Juergensmeyer has contributed major insights and made an important impact.The book is not only a celebration of Mark Juergensmeyer’s lifetime achievements, but also a warranted tool for students and scholars, who want an insight into major conceptual debates on topics such as secularism, cosmic warfare, worldviews, and the globalization of global studies.
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| 39. |
- Sutton, Jonathan, et al.
(författare)
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Explaining Political Jujitsu : Communications Infrastructure and the Outcomes of Regime Violence against Unarmed Protests
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Peace Research. - London : Sage Publications. - 0022-3433 .- 1460-3578. ; 51:5, s. 559-573
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The use of violent coercion to repress unarmed protests, such as that seen during the Arab Spring, sometimes backfires on the government – an outcome called ‘political jiu-jitsu’. Examining unique global data covering extreme violence used by governments against unarmed protests from 1989 to 2011 (drawn from UCDP) and the Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes (NAVCO) data, this study aims to explain the conditions under which this outcome occurs. This study contributes to both the nonviolent action and one-sided violence literatures by further disaggregating this effect into both domestic and international outcomes, a distinction that has not previously been made in empirical studies. We find evidence that a pre-existing campaign infrastructure increases the likelihood of increased domestic mobilization and security defections after violent repression, but is unrelated to international backlash. Within ongoing NAVCO campaigns we find that parallel media institutions increase the likelihood of increased domestic mobilization and international repercussions after repression, and that this effect holds true for both traditional media and ‘new’ (i.e. internet-based) media. One of the novel contributions of this study is that we identify an important selection effect in the NAVCO data and the critical role of organizational infrastructure, especially communications infrastructure, in generating preference changes that create the conditions where killing unarmed civilians becomes costly for repressive governments. We conclude with a discussion of the potential implications of this study and avenues for future research.
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| 40. |
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| 41. |
- Svensson, Isak, 1988, et al.
(författare)
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Bayesian estimation of the low-energy constants up to fourth order in the nucleon-nucleon sector of chiral effective field theory
- 2023
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Ingår i: Physical Review C. - 2469-9985 .- 2469-9993. ; 107:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We use Bayesian methods and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling to infer the posterior probability density function (PDF) for the low-energy constants (LECs) up to next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order (N3LO) in a chiral effective field theory (χEFT) description of the nucleon-nucleon interaction. In a first step, we condition the inference on neutron-proton and proton-proton scattering data and account for uncorrelated χEFT truncation errors. We demonstrate how to successfully sample the 31-dimensional space of LECs at N3LO using a revised HMC inference protocol. In a second step we extend the analysis by means of importance sampling and an empirical determination of the neutron-neutron scattering length to infer the posterior PDF for the leading charge-dependent contact LEC in the S01 neutron-neutron interaction channel. While doing so we account for the χEFT truncation error via a conjugate prior. We use the resulting posterior PDF to sample the posterior predictive distributions for the effective range parameters in the S01 wave as well as the strengths of charge-symmetry breaking and charge-independence breaking. We conclude that empirical point-estimate results of isospin breaking in the S01 channel are consistent with the PDFs obtained in our Bayesian analysis and that, when accounting for χEFT truncation errors, one must go to next-to-next-to-leading order to confidently detect isospin breaking effects.
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| 42. |
- Svensson, Isak, 1988, et al.
(författare)
-
Bayesian parameter estimation in chiral effective field theory using the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Physical Review C. - 2469-9985 .- 2469-9993. ; 105:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The number of low-energy constants (LECs) in chiral effective field theory (chi EFT) grows rapidly with increasing chiral order, necessitating the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for sampling their posterior probability density function. For this we introduce a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm and sample the LEC posterior up to next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) in the two-nucleon sector of chi EFT. We find that the sampling efficiency of HMC is three to six times higher compared to an affine-invariant sampling algorithm. We analyze the empirical coverage probability and validate that the NNLO model yields predictions for two-nucleon scattering data with largely reliable credible intervals, provided that one ignores the leading-order EFT expansion parameter when inferring the variance of the truncation error. We also find that the NNLO truncation error dominates the error budget.
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| 43. |
- Svensson, Isak, 1974-
(författare)
-
Biased mediation
- 2019
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Ingår i: Research Handbook on Mediating International Crises. - Cheltenham : Edward Elgar Publishing. - 9781788110693
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
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| 44. |
- Svensson, Isak, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
-
Brain Train : En handbok för gröna och kreativa arbetsresor
- 2024
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Bok (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Denna praktiska handbok är en resurs för dig som är intresserad av att organisera och genomföra moderna, klimatanpassade arbetsrelaterade resor och möten. Vi presenterar här en ny metod för att skapa bästa möjliga förutsättningar för djuparbete på tåg, särskilt anpassat för långa distanser. Vi visar hur tågresan kan organiseras så att den fungerar som gemensam arbetstid och en unik och värdefull arbetsplats. Vi kallar det Brain Train.
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| 45. |
- Svensson, Isak, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Capitalizing on Cleavages : Transnational Jihadist Conflicts, Local Fault Lines and Cumulative Extremism
- 2022
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Ingår i: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 1057-610X .- 1521-0731. ; , s. 1-19
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Trans-national jihadist groups have established themselves across many contexts. However, we have limited knowledge about the larger picture of how such groups tap into various inter-religious, sectarian, or ethnic divisions. To address this research gap, we explore: How do trans-national jihadist groups mobilize on the basis of different forms of identity cleavages? Our empirical analysis focuses on all trans-national jihadist groups who have challenged governments in civil wars. We find that mobilization along ethnic divisions is the most common cleavage, and is increasing most over time. We also find that sectarian mobilization is rare, but associated with significant escalation of violence.
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| 46. |
- Svensson, Isak, 1974-
(författare)
-
Civil war and religion : an overview
- 2019
-
Ingår i: The Oxford Encyclopedia of Politics and Religion. - Oxford : Oxford University Press.
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The relationship between civil war and religion is a complex one. Civil wars are influenced in many different ways by religiously based factors. Different religiously based factors influence the onset, dynamics, and termination of civil wars. Religious factors have been examined both as causes of war and their dynamics and as factors behind how violence is prevented, conflict is managed, and peace is built. Whereas research on peace and conflict has often tended to neglect religiously focused explanations in favor of explanations based on strategic, economic, or other factors, research on religion and conflict has seen a resurgence in recent years. Research can be organized based on three different levels of analysis: (a) explanations relating to the religious group level, (b) explanations relating to the level of interrelationships between different religious groups, and (c) explanations relating to the level of the group’s relationship to the state. On the group level, religious beliefs, religious practices, religious constituency, and religious institutions play a role. On the intergroup level, two main debates center around the “clash of civilization” and religious demography. On the state-religion level, religious grievances and state favoritism can be seen as explanations for civil wars. As religiously defined conflicts are becoming more common, understanding more about the conditions under which religious factors influence civil wars’ onset, dynamics, and termination is vital.
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| 47. |
- Svensson, Isak, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
-
Community and Consent : Unarmed insurrections in non-democracies
- 2011
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Ingår i: European Journal of International Relations. - : SAGE Publications. - 1354-0661 .- 1460-3713. ; 17:1, s. 97-120
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study explores popular challenges against the state through nonviolent means. Although previous research has started to examine the effect of these 'unarmed insurrections', the relationship between challenging the state apparatus (vertical legitimacy) and the state identity (horizontal legitimacy) has not been adequately addressed. We argue that unarmed insurrections are most likely to be successful when challenging the vertical, rather than the horizontal, legitimacy of the state. Studying data for 287 years of protests in 57 non-democratic countries during the period of 1946-2006, we find support for three implications of this proposition: 1) campaigns that demand governmental regime change are more successful than campaigns for territorial changes; 2) success is less likely when the identity of the insurgents and the government is split along ethnic lines; and 3) success is less likely when society is highly polarized along ethnic lines rather than being ethnically homogeneous. Thus, when the community is divided, the efforts to withdraw consent will be less effective. The study discusses the implications of these findings for policymakers and scholars interested in nonviolent strategic action.
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| 48. |
- Svensson, Isak, 1974-
(författare)
-
Conflict Mediation, in
- 2015
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Ingår i: <em>Elsevier’s International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences </em>(IESBS). - : Elsevier.
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
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| 49. |
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| 50. |
- Svensson, Isak, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Confronting the caliphate? : Explaining civil resistance in jihadist proto-states
- 2021
-
Ingår i: European Journal of International Relations. - : Sage Publications. - 1354-0661 .- 1460-3713. ; 27:2, s. 572-595
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Research has shown the potential of nonviolent civil resistance in challenging autocratic state regimes (e.g. Sharp, 1973; Chenoweth and Stephan, 2011). Yet, little is known about its applicability in jihadist proto-states, that is, territories governed by militant jihadist groups. We argue that civil resistance is more likely to occur when jihadists impose a rule that local populations perceive as alien and when organizational structures capable of collective nonviolent mobilization are activated. We develop this argument through a comparative analysis of three jihadist proto-states: one in which manifest and organized civil resistance occurred (Islamic Emirate of Azawad in Mali in 2012), and two in which it did not: the Islamic State of Iraq (2006-2008) and the Islamic Principality of al-Mukalla in Yemen (2015-2016). Whereas the former was met with mainly armed resistance (the Sunni Awakening campaign), the latter saw neither armed nor unarmed organized and collective resistance by locals under its rule. We demonstrate how variation in the jihadists' governing strategies (especially the degree of adaptation to local conditions) as well as in the social structures for mobilization (i.e. whether opposition was channeled through civil society networks or tribal networks) created different conditions for civil resistance. This study adds to a growing research discussion on civil resistance against rebel governance (e.g. Arjona, 2015; Kaplan, 2017). More broadly, our study is an innovative first attempt to bridge research on terrorism, rebel governance, and civil resistance, three fields that have been siloed in previous research.
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