| 1. |
- Svensson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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Biodiversity in sustainable forestry.
- 2002
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Ingår i: Developing principles and models for sustainable forestry in Sweden. - 1402009992 ; , s. 273-296
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 2. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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Defining sustainability
- 2002
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Ingår i: Developing principles for sustainable forestry, Results from a research program in southern Sweden. ; , s. 17-35
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 3. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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Mapping critical loads for nitrogen based on biodiversity using ForSAFE-VEG: introducing the basic principles
- 2014
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Ingår i: Nitrogen Deposition, Critical Loads and Biodiversity : Proceedings of the International Nitrogen Initiative Workshop, linking experts of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution and the Convention on Biological Diversity - Proceedings of the International Nitrogen Initiative Workshop, linking experts of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution and the Convention on Biological Diversity. - Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands. - 9789400779396 - 9789400779389 ; , s. 375-383
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This chapter describes the basic principles inside the VEG extension to the ForSAFE model system. It allows changes in ground vegetation to be calculated, an important part of biodiversity. In the VEG model, the basis for modelling ground vegetation dynamics is a competition strength model based on soil chemistry promoting and retarding factors, nutrients, water and light. The strength is used in a competition model to assign ground area to each plant type considered. The ForSAFE-VEG is freely available from the authors and is used for assessing critical loads for acidity and nitrogen in Europe and United Sates, based on biodiversity criteria.
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| 4. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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Sustainable forest management
- 2002
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Ingår i: Developing principles for sustainable forestry, Results from a research program in southern Sweden. - 1402009992 ; , s. 37-97
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Wallman, Patrik, et al.
(författare)
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Integrated modelling
- 2002
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Ingår i: Developing Principles and Models for Sustainable Forestry in Swede.
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 7. |
- Wallman, Patrik, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling forest sustainability
- 2002
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Ingår i: Developing principles for sustainable forestry, Results from a research program in southern Sweden. ; , s. 289-345
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Akselsson, Cecilia, et al.
(författare)
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Critical loads of acidity for forest soils and relationship to forest decline in the northern Czech Republic
- 2004
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Ingår i: Environmental Monitoring & Assessment. - 1573-2959. ; 98:1-3, s. 363-379
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Critical load calculations in the Czech part of 'the Black Triangle' show exceedance of critical load in 75% of the forest area. A comparison with forest damage data shows an insignificant tendency toward more forest damage in areas with high exceedance. We conclude that high exceedance of critical load is a probable contributing factor to forest damage in the area.
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| 10. |
- Akselsson, Cecilia, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of harvest intensity on long-term base cation budgets in Swedish forest soils
- 2007
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Ingår i: Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-2940 .- 1567-7230. ; 7:1, s. 201-210
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Abstract in UndeterminedThe effects of harvesting on the long-term mass balances of calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg) and potassium (K) were evaluated on a regional level in Sweden. A new high-resolution weathering database was used together with estimates of total deposition, losses through harvest and leaching. Estimates were made for pine and spruce separately and for two harvesting intensity scenarios: stem harvesting and whole-tree harvesting. The mass balance calculations showed net losses of Ca and Mg in almost the whole country for both scenarios. The losses were smaller for pine than for spruce. The K balances were mainly positive for pine but negative for spruce. Leaching was a main factor in the mass balances, especially for Ca and Mg. Whole-tree harvesting in spruce forests led to substantially higher net losses of K and Ca than stem harvesting, according to the calculations. In the whole-tree harvesting scenario in spruce forests the estimated yearly net losses of Ca, Mg and K corresponded to at least 5%, 8% and 3% of the pools of exchangeable base cations, respectively, at 25% of the analysed sites. If losses of this magnitude continue the depletion of the pools of Ca, Mg and K may lead to very low base saturation of the soils, possibly accompanied by negative effects on soil fertility, runoff water quality, tree vitality and tree growth within a forest rotation in parts of Sweden. Avoiding whole-tree harvesting can improve the situation substantially for K, but the losses of Ca and Mg will still be significant.
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| 11. |
- Akselsson, Cecilia, et al.
(författare)
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Nutrient and carbon budgets in forest soils as decision support in sustainable forest management
- 2007
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Ingår i: Forest Ecology and Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-7042 .- 0378-1127. ; 238:1-3, s. 167-174
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Knowledge about the nutrient and carbon budgets in forest soils is essential to maintain sustainable production, but also in several environmental issues, such as acidification, eutrophication and climate change. The budgets are strongly influenced by atmospheric deposition as well as forestry. This study demonstrates how budget calculations for nitrogen (N), carbon (C) and base cations (BC) can be used as a basis for policy decisions on a regional level in Sweden. The study was based on existing nutrient and C budget calculations on a regional scale in Sweden. The nutrient budgets have been calculated for each square in a national 5 km x 5 km net by means of mass balances including deposition, harvest losses, leaching, weathering (BC) and fixation (N). Scenarios with different deposition and forestry intensity have been run and illustrated on maps. A simplified C budget has been estimated by multiplying the N accumulation with the C/N ratio in the organic layer, based on the assumption that the C/N ratio in the accumulating organic matter is equal to the ratio in the soil organic matter pool. The budget approaches differ from earlier budget studies since they involve regional high resolution data, combine deposition and forestry scenarios and integrate different environmental aspects. The results indicate that whole-tree harvesting will cause net losses of N and base cations in large parts of Sweden, which means that forestry will not be sustainable unless nutrients are added through compensatory fertilization. To prevent net losses following whole-tree harvesting, compensatory fertilization of base cations would be required in almost the whole country, whereas N fertilization would be needed mainly in the northern half of Sweden. The results further suggest that today's recommendations for N fertilization should be revised in southern Sweden by applying the southwest-northeast gradient of the N budget calculations. The C and N accumulation calculations show that C sequestration in Swedish forest soils is not an effective or sustainable way to decrease the net carbon dioxide emissions. A better way is to apply whole-tree harvesting and use the branches, tops and needles as biofuel replacing fossil fuels. This could reduce the present carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels substantially. The study shows that high resolution budget calculations that illuminate different aspects of sustainability in forest ecosystems are important tools for identifying problem areas, investigating different alternatives through scenario analyses and developing new policies. Cooperation with stakeholders increases the probability that the research will be useful. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All fights reserved.
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| 12. |
- Akselsson, Cecilia, et al.
(författare)
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Relations between elemental content in till, mineralogy of till and bedrock mineralogy in the province of Småland, southern Sweden
- 2006
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Ingår i: Geoderma. - : Elsevier BV. - 0016-7061. ; 136:3-4, s. 643-659
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Information on soil mineralogy is essential for weathering rate calculations. Quantitative mineralogical analyses are expensive and time-consuming, and thus indirect methods of determining the mineralogical composition are important, for example estimating the composition based on the elemental content in till (total concentrations), or based on information about the underlying bedrock. The mineralogical composition and the elemental content in till were analysed in two areas in southern Sweden, at 10 sites in each area. There were significant differences between the areas regarding both elemental content and optically determined mineralogy. The content of calcium was significantly higher in one area, 5ESV, and there were tendencies in this direction also for magnesium and iron. The potassium content was significantly higher in the other area, 6FNV. The variation in soil chemistry between the areas can be explained by higher contents of the minerals biotite, homblende and epidote in the first area (5ESV) and higher contents of K-feldspar in the second (6FNV). Normative mineralogy was determined based on the elemental content. A comparison between the normative mineralogy and the optically determined mineralogy showed great similarities which indicates that there is good potential for using elemental content for estimating the mineralogical composition. The difference in till composition between the areas could not be explained by the underlying bedrock, which indicates that the information available on the bedrock is not sufficient for estimation of the till mineralogical composition.
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| 13. |
- Akselsson, Cecilia, et al.
(författare)
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Scaling and Mapping Regional Calculations of Soil Chemical Weathering Rates in Sweden
- 2004
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Ingår i: Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus. - 1573-2940. ; 4:2-3, s. 671-681
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Weathering rates of base cations are crucial in critical load calculations and assessments of sustainable forestry. The weathering rate on a single site with detailed geological data can be modelled using the PROFILE model. For environmental assessments on a regional scale, the weathering rates for sites are scaled into regional maps. The step from sites to regional level requires focus on the spatial variation of weathering rates. In this paper, a method is presented by which weathering rates are calculated for 25589 Swedish sites with total elemental analysis for the soil. Based on a part of the results, a methodology for creating area covering maps by geostatistical analysis and kriging is described. A normative reconstruction model was used to transform total elemental analysis to mineralogy. Information from the Swedish Forest Inventory database and other databases were used to derive texture and other important information for the sites, e.g. climate, deposition and vegetation data. The calculated weathering rates show a regional pattern that indicates possibilities for interpolation of data in large parts of Sweden. Geostatistical analysis of an area in southern Sweden shows different properties for different base cations. Kriging was performed for potassium to demonstrate the method. It was concluded that different base cations and different regions have to be analysed separately, in order to optimise the kriging method.
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
- Alveteg, Mattias, et al.
(författare)
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Developing a kinetic alternative in modeling soil aluminium.
- 1995
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Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - 1573-2932. ; 79:1-4, s. 377-389
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Soil chemistry models often use gibbsite solubility and similar equilibrium models to predict Al concentrations in soil solution. A kinetic alternative was developed with the goal of finding universal rate constants instead of the site- and depth-specific solubility constants usually associated with the equilibrium approach. The behavior of the two approaches was studied within the framework of the steady-state soil chemistry model PROFILE using data from Solling, Germany and Gårdsjön, Sweden, two sites with different mineralogy and land use history. The kinetic alternative uses a mass balance to predict Al concentrations. The sources of Al in soil water are deposition, weathering and mineralization. The sinks are leaching and the formation of an aluminosilicate precursor. The precursor slowly transforms into an ordinary clay mineral. Both formation and transformation of the precursor are treated as irreversible processes. The kinetic model introduces a new relationship between pH and Al and produces a systematic pattern of different apparent gibbsite equilibrium constants at different depths. Results show that the kinetic model systematically underestimates Al concentration in the upper horizons, which indicates that there may be additional sources of Al in the upper horizons not accounted for in the model. Predicted values of pH and Al concentrations are comparable with field observations.
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| 16. |
- Alveteg, Mattias, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating simplifications used in regional applications of the SAFE and MAKEDEP models
- 1998
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Ingår i: Ecological Modelling. - 0304-3800. ; 107:2-3, s. 265-277
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The importance of different additional simplifications used when moving from single site applications to regional applications of the SAFE and MAKEDEP models was studied. The SAFE model is a dynamic soil chemistry model, which apart from physical and chemical soil parameters also needs the historic evolution of atmospheric deposition and nutrient uptake to simulate the effects of acidic deposition on the chemical status of forest soils. The historic evolution of atmospheric deposition and nutrient uptake are reconstructed by the MAKEDEP model, using information on current deposition and nutrients status together with general deposition trends. Additional simplifica- tions are enforced by limitations in available regional data sets and the costs involved in completing regional data sets. The simplifications studied here are the same as those used in an actual regional application to Scania, southern Sweden: (1) Use of default values for certain soil parameters such as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and soil bulk density; (2) Use of general depth trends to extrapolate soil parameters, such as mineralogy and surface area, measured for one soil layer to the other three soil layers considered in the SAFE model application; (3) Use of a simplified version of MAKEDEP, where some of the key feedbacks, such as the effects of a growing canopy on dry deposition rates have been removed in order to limit the input data needed to run the MAKEDEP model. The models where applied to two well documented sites, Solling, Germany and Rothamsted, UK. Model results using the above simplifications and subsets thereof were compared with soil chemistry measurements and model results based on previously published single-site applications for the two sites. The study shows that the trends and the present day values of pH and base cation concentration are reproduced fairly well even when all of the simplifications are used. In order to increase the reliability of the regional applications, however, the non-simplified version of MAKEDEP should be used rather than the simplified version. Regional data sets of standing biomass and nutrient contents are therefore needed.
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| 17. |
- Alveteg, Mattias, et al.
(författare)
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Integrated assessment of soil chemical status. 1. Integration of existing models and derivation of a regional database for Switzerland
- 1998
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Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - 1573-2932. ; 105:1-2, s. 1-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A regional soil acidification model was developed by integration and adaptation of existing models. The regional model consists of the dynamic multi-layer soil chemistry model SAFE, its steady-state version INITSAFE, the atmospheric deposition and nutrient uptake reconstruction model MAKEDEP, and a routine with empirical relations concerning depth-dependent parameters. A scheme for the extraction of input to the regional model from available information of different geographical detail also was developed. Basic data sources considered were: 1) national surveys such as the National Forest Inventory, covering site specific information, 2) available point measurements of parameter values, and 3) literature sources. Not all parameters were available on a regional scale with sufficient resolution. Input required for the model calculations therefore was derived from the available data sources by means of transfer algorithms including spatial interpolation. Interpolation was done allocating parameter values determined at reference sites to conventionally mapped entities such as geological units, soil type, and other kinds of geographical information. The exercise resulted in a data base of the required 68 site-specific parameter values covering climatic, deposition and land use parameters, as well as stand characteristics and soil properties.
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| 18. |
- Alveteg, Mattias, et al.
(författare)
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Regional assessment of the temporal trends in soil acidification in Southern Sweden, using the safe model
- 1995
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Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - 1573-2932. ; 85:4, s. 2509-2514
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The dynamic soil acidification model SAFE was applied to 44 forested sites in Skåne, southern Sweden, using available Swedish databases on present soil status, vegetation and deposition. Time series of deposition were derived for each site from present deposition in a generalized fashion by dividing deposition into different classes and scaling with deposition trends from the literature. This study connects the current status of the soil and the soil development with critical load maps calculated with the steady-state model PROFILE. The model was calibrated against measurements of present base saturation from the Swedish Forest Inventory. Model output was compared with available measurements of soil water chemistry. Model output was used to assess the time delay between changes in acidic input and system response in terms of exchangeable base cations and pH. The model was also used for scenario analysis, applying the reductions agreed in the Oslo Protocol to assess the environmental benefits of the agreement.
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| 19. |
- Barkman, A, et al.
(författare)
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Regionalization of critical loads under uncertainty
- 1995
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Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - 1573-2932. ; 85:4, s. 2515-2520
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The steady-state model PROFILE was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations of critical loads of acidity and exceedances of forest soils for 128 sites in the province of Scania, southern Sweden. Statistical tests showed that 100 sites had normal distributed critical loads and exceedances and that the variance of these parameters was statistically equal for all sites. Pooled estimates df the standard deviation was 0.19 and 0.31 kmol(c) ha(-1) yr(-1) for the critical loads and exceedances, respectively. Introduction of uncertainties, expressed as confidence intervals, in the cumulative distribution function for critical loads showed that overlaps between percentiles were substantial. The 5%-ile was systematically equal to the 57%-ile using a 67% confidence interval and equal to the 87%-ile when a 95% confidence level was chosen. The overlaps of percentiles cause a reduction of acidic deposition according to the mean value of the 5%-ile to protect only 68% of the ecosystem area with an 84% probability and not a guaranteed protection of 95% as if uncertainties did not exist. Thus, uncertainties make it possible to advocate reductions to levels of deposition below the 5%-ile of critical loads.
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| 20. |
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| 21. |
- Belyazid, Salim, et al.
(författare)
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A dynamic modelling approach for estimating critical loads of nitrogen based on pliant community changes under a changing climate
- 2011
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Ingår i: Environmental Pollution. - : Elsevier BV. - 0269-7491. ; 159:3, s. 789-801
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A dynamic model of forest ecosystems was used to investigate the effects of climate change, atmospheric deposition and harvest intensity on 48 forest sites in Sweden (n = 16) and Switzerland (n = 32). The model was used to investigate the feasibility of deriving critical loads for nitrogen (N) deposition based on changes in plant community composition. The simulations show that climate and atmospheric deposition have comparably important effects on N mobilization in the soil, as climate triggers the release of organically bound nitrogen stored in the soil during the elevated deposition period. Climate has the most important effect on plant community composition, underlining the fact that this cannot be ignored in future simulations of vegetation dynamics. Harvest intensity has comparatively little effect on the plant community in the long term, while it may be detrimental in the short term following cutting. This study shows: that critical loads of N deposition can be estimated using the plant community as an indicator; that future climatic changes must be taken into account; and that the definition of the reference deposition is critical for the outcome of this estimate. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 22. |
- Belyazid, Salim, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the Effects of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Soil Properties and Plant Diversity in Northeastern US Hardwood Forests : Model Setup and Evaluation
- 2019
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Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0049-6979 .- 1573-2932. ; 230:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The integrated forest ecosystem model ForSAFE-Veg was used to simulate soil processes and understory vegetation composition at threesugar maple, beech, yellow birchhardwood forest sites in the Northeastern United States (one at Hubbard Brook, NH, and two at Bear Brook, ME). Input data were pooled from a variety of sources and proved coherent and consistent. While the biogeochemical component ForSAFE was used with limited calibration, the ground vegetation composition module Veg was calibrated to field releves. Evaluating different simulated ecosystem indicators (soil solution chemistry, tree biomass, ground vegetation composition) showed that the model performed comparably well regardless of the site's soil condition, climate, and amounts of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, with the exception of failing to capture tree biomass decline at Hubbard Brook. The model performed better when compared with annual observation than monthly data. The results support the assumption that the biogeochemical model ForSAFE can be used with limited calibration and provide reasonable confidence, while the vegetation community composition module Veg requires calibration if the individual plant species are of interest. The study welcomes recent advances in empirically explaining the responses of hardwood forests to nutrient imbalances and points to the need for more research.
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| 23. |
- Belyazid, Salim, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring Ground Vegetation Change for Different Deposition Scenarios and Methods for Estimating Critical Loads for Biodiversity Using the ForSAFE-VEG Model in Switzerland and Sweden
- 2011
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Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-2932 .- 0049-6979. ; 216:1-4, s. 289-317
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ForSAFE-VEG model was used to investigate the impacts of climate change and air pollution scenarios on soil chemistry and ground vegetations composition. In particular, the model involves a ground vegetation model incorporating plant changes to ambient site conditions in terms of climate and chemistry, but the model also incorporate competition between the different plant groups. The model was validated against observed values and reproduced observations of tree growth, soil chemistry, and ground vegetation compositions to satisfaction. The results show that the ground vegetation reacts strongly to changes in air pollution, in particular nitrogen as well as to climate change with major shifts in plant composition. A procedure for estimating critical loads for nitrogen, using ground vegetation biodiversity as criterion, was tested and the method seems operable. It suggests that if we want to protect the present biodiversity of the ground vegetation, this will face significant difficulties because of permanent climate change that induced changes in the ecosystem. We conclude that the reference state for ground vegetation biodiversity is rather to be sought for in the future, hopefully using models, than in the past or present.
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| 24. |
- Belyazid, Salim, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling changes in forest soil chemistry at 16 Swedish coniferous forest sites following deposition reduction
- 2006
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Ingår i: Environmental Pollution. - : Elsevier BV. - 0269-7491. ; 144:2, s. 596-609
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The dynamic forest ecosystem model ForSAFE was applied at 16 coniferous forest sites in Sweden to investigate past and future changes in soil chemistry following changes in atmospheric deposition. The simulation shows a considerable historical soil acidification. Acidification in the southwest, where deposition has been greatest, was more expressed in the deepest soil layers, while it was more evenly distributed through the soil profile in central Sweden, and was greater in the upper soil layers in the north. The simulation also shows that a slight recovery took place after the reduction in emissions, but was counteracted by the effect of harvesting. The simulation predicts an increase in the number of acidified sites in the future. The results also suggest that future acidification will be mainly due to the enhanced tree growth resulting from the chronic high deposition of nitrogen and the removal of soil base cations through harvesting. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 25. |
- De Vries, W., et al.
(författare)
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Use of dynamic soil-vegetation models to assess impacts of nitrogen deposition on plant species composition: an overview
- 2010
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Ingår i: Ecological Applications. - : Wiley. - 1051-0761. ; 20:1, s. 60-79
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Field observations and experimental data of effects of nitrogen (N) deposition oil plant species diversity have been Used to derive empirical critical N loads for various ecosystems. The great advantage of such an approach is the inclusion of field evidence, but there are also restrictions, such as the absence of explicit criteria regarding significant effects on the vegetation, and the impossibility to predict future impacts when N deposition changes. Model approaches Call account for this. In this paper, we review the possibilities of static and dynamic multispecies models in combination with dynamic soil-vegetation models to (1) predict plant species composition as a function of atmospheric N deposition and (2) calculate critical N loads in relation to a prescribed protection level of the species composition. The similarities between the models are presented, but also several important differences, including the Use of different indicators for N and acidity and the prediction of individual plant species VS. Plant communities. A summary of the strengths and weaknesses of the various Models, including their validation status, is given. Furthermore,. examples are given of critical load calculations with the model chains and their comparison with empirical critical N loads. We show that linked biogeochemistry-biodiversity models for N have potential for applications to support European policy to reduce N input, but the definition of damage thresholds for terrestrial biodiversity represents a major challenge. There is also a clear need for further testing and validation of the models against long-term monitoring or long-term experimental data sets and against large-scale survey data. This requires a focused data collection ill Europe. combing vegetation descriptions with variables affecting the species diversity. such as Soil acidity, nutrient status and water availability. Finally there is a need for adaptation and upscaling of the models beyond the regions for which dose-response relationships have been parameterized, to make them generally applicable.
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| 26. |
- Erlandsson Lampa, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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Catchment export of base cations : improved mineral dissolution kinetics influence the role of water transit time
- 2020
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Ingår i: SOIL. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2199-3971 .- 2199-398X. ; 6:1, s. 231-244
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Soil mineral weathering is one of the major sources of base cations (BC), which play a dual role in forest ecosystems: they function as plant nutrients and buffer against the acidification of catchment runoff. On a long-term basis, soil weathering rates determine the highest sustainable forest productivity that does not cause acidification. It is believed that the hydrologic residence time plays a key role in determining the weathering rates at the landscape scale. The PROFILE weathering model has been used for almost 30 years to calculate weathering rates in the rooting zone of forest soils. However, the mineral dissolution equations in PROFILE are not adapted for the saturated zone, and employing these equations at the catchment scale results in a significant overprediction of base cation release rates to surface waters. In this study, we use a revised set of PROFILE equations which, among other features, include retardation due to silica concentrations. Relationships between the water transit time (WTT) and soil water concentrations were derived for each base cation, by simulating the soil water chemistry along a one-dimensional flow path, using the mineralogy from a glacial till soil. We show how the revised PROFILE equations are able to reproduce patterns in BC and silica concentrations as well as BC ratios (Ca2+/BC, Mg2+/BC and Na+/BC) that are observed in the soil water profiles and catchment runoff. In contrast to the original set of PROFILE equations, the revised set of equations could reproduce the fact that increasing WTT led to a decreasing Na+/BC ratio and increasing Ca2+/BC and Mg2+/BC ratios. Furthermore, the total release of base cations from a hillslope was calculated using a mixing model, where water with different WTTs was mixed according to an externally modeled WTT distribution. The revised set of equations gave a 50% lower base cation release (0.23 eqm 2 yr 1) than the original PROFILE equations and are in better agreement with mass balance calculations of weathering rates. Thus, the results from this study demonstrate that the revised mineral dissolution equations for PROFILE are a major step forward in modeling weathering rates at the catchment scale.
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| 27. |
- Forsius, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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MAGIC, SAFE and SMART model applications at integrated monitoring sites: Effects of emission reduction scenarios
- 1998
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Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - 1573-2932. ; 105:1-2, s. 21-30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Three well-known dynamic acidification models (MAGIC, SAFE, SMART) were applied to data sets from five Integrated Monitoring sites in Europe. The calibrated models were used in a policy-oriented framework to predict the long-term soil acidification of these background forest sites, given different scenarios of future deposition of S and N. Emphasis was put on deriving realistic site-specific scenarios for the model applications. The deposition was calculated with EMEP transfer matrices and official emissions for the target years 2000, 2005 and 2010. The alternatives for S deposition were current reduction plans and maximum feasible reductions. For N, the NOx and NHy depositions were frozen at the present level. For NOx, a reduction scenario of flat 30% reduction from present deposition also was utilized to demonstrate the possible effects of such a measure. The three models yielded generally consistent results. The Best prediction-scenario (including the effects of the second UN/ECE protocol for reductions of SO2 emissions and present level for NOx-emissions), resulted in many cases in a stabilization of soil acidification, although significant improvements were not always shown. With the exception of one site, the Maximum Feasible Reductions scenario always resulted in significant improvements. Dynamic models are needed as a complement to steady-state techniques for estimating critical loads and assessing emission reduction policies, where adequate data are available.
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| 28. |
- Fransson, Liisa, et al.
(författare)
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A regional perspective on present and future soil chemistry at 16 Swedish forest sites
- 2005
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Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-2932 .- 0049-6979. ; 162:1-4, s. 89-105
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Assessing the timescales of recovery, by the use of dynamic models, will be used as input to the policy process to abate acidification. In this study the multilayer dynamic soil chemistry model SAFE was applied to 16 forest sites in Sweden, covering a sulfur deposition gradient of 1.2-11 kg S/ha/yr. Soil samples were collected at all sites and the pH and sulfate concentration dependent isotherm, used for modeling sulfate adsorption in SAFE, was parameterized for every site. A new way of implementing the nutrient uptake distribution in SAFE was developed, which allows the uptake distribution between layers in the rooting zone to vary with time, depending on the availability of base cations in the individual layers. Model output was compared to measurements of base cation concentration, total inorganic Al, pH and Bc/Al both site-by-site and cumulatively for all sites, and the usefulness of these comparisons is discussed from a policy viewpoint. Future projections of recovery show that the overall recovery, expressed as minimum Bc/Al ratio > 1 in the rooting zone, is slow. Assuming full implementation of the UNECE LRTAP Gothenburg Protocol and no further emission reductions thereafter, 44% of the modeled sites still have a Bc/Al ratio below 1 in 2100 in some soil layer within the rooting zone.
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| 29. |
- Gaudio, Noemie, et al.
(författare)
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Combined effect of atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate change on temperate forest soil biogeochemistry: A modeling approach
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Ecological Modelling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-3800. ; 306, s. 24-34
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Atmospheric N deposition is known to severely impact forest ecosystem functioning by influencing soil biogeochemistry and nutrient balance, and consequently tree growth and overall forest health and biodiversity. Moreover, because climate greatly influences soil processes, climate change and atmospheric N deposition must both be taken into account when analysing the evolution of forest ecosystem status over time. Dynamic biogeochemical models have been developed to test different climate and atmospheric N deposition scenarios and their potential interactions in the long term. In this study, the ForSAFE model was used to predict the combined effect of atmospheric N deposition and climate change on two temperate forest ecosystems in France dominated by oak and spruce, and more precisely on forest soil biogeochemistry, from today to 2100. After a calibration step and following a careful statistical validation process, two atmospheric N deposition scenarios were tested: the current legislation in Europe (CLE) and the maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. They were combined with three climate scenarios: current climate scenario, worst-case climate scenario (A2) and best-case climate scenario (B1). The changes in base saturation and inorganic N concentration in the soil solution were compared across all scenario combinations, with the aim of forecasting the state of acidification, eutrophication and forest ecosystem recovery up to the year 2100. Simulations highlighted that climate had a stronger impact on soil base saturation, whereas atmospheric deposition had a comparative effect or a higher effect than climate on N concentration in the soil solution. Although deposition remains the main factor determining the evolution of N concentration in soil solution, increased temperature had a significant effect. Results also highlighted the necessity of considering the joint effect of both climate and atmospheric N deposition on soil biogeochemistry.
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| 30. |
- Grennfelt, Peringe, et al.
(författare)
-
Critical loads - is there a need for a new concept?
- 2001
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Ingår i: Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus. - 1573-2940. ; 1:1-2, s. 21-27
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The concept of critical loads has been an important and successful tool for the development of control strategies for transboundary air pollution in Europe. The use of the concept has led us to a situation where very few areas in Europe will have an exceedance of critical loads for acidification in 2010, indicating that the benefits of further control acidifying substances will be less useful. The critical loads concept does not, however, take into account the large benefits of further control in damaged systems but where critical loads are no longer exceeded. In this paper we discuss the importance of widening the critical loads concept to include these benefits and we propose an additional effect-related measure, Dynamic Impact Analysis, to be included in further control strategies and assessments. With such a concept the actual situation and its further development will be included in assessments and control strategies.
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| 31. |
- Haraldsson, Hördur, et al.
(författare)
-
The coming water shortage in the Jordan River Basin - Finding objectivity in a subjective problem
- 2002
-
Ingår i: Proceeding of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. ; , s. 78-78
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Water distribution and availability in the Jordan region were studied. Self-sufficiency in water availability within the region is determined by the minimum amount of water used per person that is renewable. The objectives of the study were to identify the causes of water shortages and alternative use of water to prolong future supplies. According to our analysis, Israel and Jordan will overutilise their water source by a factor of 2 and Palestine by a factor of 1, by the year 2030. Water recycling has a potential in all the countries. The agricultural sector makes up the bulk of the water use (73-85%). Different water-saving techniques and alternative crop production can drastically reduce water use. Diverting away from agriculture and alternatively developing the industry sector would alleviate the immediate water shortages but will make the region dependent on the global grain market.
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| 32. |
- Haraldsson, Hördur, et al.
(författare)
-
The tyranny of small steps: A reoccurring behaviour in management
- 2008
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Ingår i: Systems Research and Behavioral Science. - : Wiley. - 1099-1743 .- 1092-7026. ; 25:1, s. 25-43
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Tyranny of Small Steps (TYST) behaviour has been investigated. Explained through a systemic perspective, the behaviour TYST is an unwanted change to a system through a series of small activities that may be independent from one another. These activities are small enough not to be detected by the 'surveillance' within the system, but significant enough to encroach upon the 'tolerance zone' of the system and compromise integrity of the system. TYST is an unintentional process that is experienced within the system and made possible by the lack of transparency between an overarching level and a local level where the encroachment is taking place. The Orby case study illustrates a real life manifestation of the TYST behaviour in management and planning. The TYST illustrates the necessity for total transparency in any systems in order to avoid unintended consequence. The TYST process may be regarded as a part of wide range of complex systems but depending on the conditions, it can remain dormant, and only become active when the conditions for lack of transparency are fulfilled.
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| 33. |
- Haraldsson, Hördur V., et al.
(författare)
-
Causal Loop Diagrams – Promoting Deep Learning of Complex Systems in Engineering Education (rev 2007-05-11)
- 2006
-
Ingår i: [Host publication title missing].
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The use of systems analysis involving tools like Causal loop diagrams and stock and flow diagrams can be shown in practical tests to greatly enhance systems insight and understanding of the dynamic behaviour of complex systems. Whereas many students may have difficulty understanding what a coupled system of differential equations really do, systems analysis creates such insights even to those with differentiofobia. Within the systems analysis course given at LUMES, we have extensive experience in teaching systems analysis and the use of CLD and SFDs to people of different backgrounds, and also seen how technical problems in engineering have a great help in using CLD and SFDs to explain and communicate insight into complex systems to non-technical people
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| 34. |
- Haraldsson, Hördur V., et al.
(författare)
-
Is eco-living more sustainable than conventional living? : comparing sustainability performances between two townships in southern Sweden
- 2001
-
Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Planning and Management. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0964-0568 .- 1360-0559. ; 44:5, s. 663-679
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ecological footprint (EF) analysis was used to determine whether so-called eco-living in Sweden differs from conventional living. The study involved two elements: (1) calculations of material and energy needs for constructing an eco-house in Toarp and a standard house in Oxie, southern Sweden; and (2) EF analysis of consumption patterns in households from Toarp and Oxie. A difference of only 10% was observed in the comparison of the building materials between the two houses. Building materials represent less than 5% of the annual EF in Toarp and Oxie. There was no significant difference in the EF between the two towns. The average annual EFs are 2.8 ha per person and 3.7 ha per person in Toarp and Oxie, respectively. Food consumption and energy consumption for housing (space heating and electricity use) are the largest contributors to the EF in Toarp and Oxie. These factors are almost equal in size and constitute 75% of the total EF in both Toarp and Oxie.
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| 35. |
- Haraldsson, Hördur Valdimar, et al.
(författare)
-
Systems Science and System Thinking in practice : How to develop qualitative and numerical models for evolvingunderstandings of challenges and responses to complex policies
- 2021
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This publication addresses some of the challenging issues facing many public authorities in how to adopt systems science and systems thinking in their work. The text lays out a systematic approach to problem solving on a basic level by illustrating how to approach complex tasks as well as provides theoretical discussions, practical examples, project examples, and exercises.The text is written for laypeople, so the examples (i.e., case studies) used are easy to understand. The case examples demonstrate the processes required for defining a problem and creating solution(s) – i.e., systems thinking and analysis. Understanding systems thinking, system analysis, and system dynamics will provide public authorities and organisations the flexibility and agility to quickly adapt to a changing society.
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| 36. |
- Hirschnitz-Garbers, Martin, et al.
(författare)
-
Potentiale und Kernergebnisse der Simulationen von Ressourcen-schonung(spolitik) : Endbericht des Projekts „Modelle, Potentiale und Langfristszenarien für Ressourceneffizienz“ (Sim-Ress)
- 2018
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Human use of natural resources poses a great challenge to social-ecological and socio-technical sys- tems alike: supply risks, pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions, waste generation on the one hand, but also issues of global justice and societal well-being on the other hand. In order to test potential im- pacts of developments and strategies relevant to resource policy, the SimRess project first identified trends that positively or negatively affect resource use in Germany and globally in the future. These trends were then incorporated into resource relevant scenarios (without as well as with assumptions of further resource and climate policy measures), which served as frames for simulating potential im- pacts via the econometric model GINFORS3 and the system dynamic model WORLD6 as well as through a soft-link of both models.The simulation results show on the one hand that continuing existing resource policy efforts on na- tional and international level will remain an important contribution to increasing resource productiv- ity and economic development. On the other hand, however, it was found that achieving targets for per-capita resource use, as called for by national and international sustainability scholars, needs a much greater level of ambition in national and international resource policy. This demands widening resource policy’s focus from increasing productivity in production structures to also tackling changes in consumption and investment patterns. Correspondingly, it seems important to expand the toolkit of resource policy instruments to much more integrate both economic and regulatory measures.
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| 37. |
- Hirschnitz-Garbers, Martin, et al.
(författare)
-
System analysis for environmental policy – System thinking through system dynamic modelling and policy mixing as used in the SimRess project
- 2018
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Diverse and complex interactions as well as multi-actor systems characterise resource use and re- source policy. This makes system analysis a relevant tool to orient resource policy towards the long term. Analysing such complex systems requires systemic thinking, consideration of causal loops as well as time-lags and delays in system responses.In the SimRess project, system analysis encompassed participatory conceptual system modelling via involving external stakholders into identifying system boundaries and elements via causal loop dia- grams (CLDs). The CLDs were than reflected in the parametrisation of simulation models and the de- velopment of policy mixes.Only a limited number of stakeholders participated in two of the five workshops needed for a fully- fledged group modelling process. Therefore, the project team finalised internally the conceptual sys- tem model. Although this reduced ownership and transparency of the system model, the two work- shops provided relevant system knowledge for further modelling work and policy mix development.During policy mix development in SimRess, we needed to deviate from the theoretical concept of pol- icy mixing based on available project capacities and stakeholder decisions. On the one hand, under- standing and assessing cumulative effects of policy mixes challenged conceptual policy mix develop- ment and simulation capacities. On the other hand, stakeholder decisions impacted on the depth at which system analysis via simulation models could be undertaken.
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| 38. |
- Holmquist, J, et al.
(författare)
-
Application of the PROFILE model to estimate potassium release from mineral weathering in Northern European agricultural soils
- 2003
-
Ingår i: European Journal of Agronomy. - 1161-0301. ; 20:1-2, s. 149-163
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Negative potassium (K) balances have been reported from grass-dominated organic systems in several European countries, and in these systems delivery of K from soil primary minerals by weathering is probably crucial to sustained productivity. Mass balances and K budgets have been made at eight grass-dominated experimental agricultural systems, one each in Scotland and Sweden and six in Norway. Where no fertiliser K was applied, the deficits obtained were in the range 35–241 kg K ha−1 per year. An estimate of the weathering rate was determined by the biogeochemical PROFILE model that varied widely between locations (3–82 kg K ha−1 per year). This paper is a first attempt to apply the steady-state PROFILE model on agricultural soils by using data from experimental sites. The Monte Carlo simulation of the weathering rate calculation showed that differences in specific surface area and soil water content strongly influenced the predicted weathering rate, which was associated with a degree of uncertainty. All sites showed a negative annual K-balance, which means that the specific contribution that mineral weathering makes to the long-term replenishment of soil exchangeable-K is important but may not be sufficient to counteract large K removal associated with high crop yields. Despite the uncertainties in the weathering rate calculation, these preliminary results are still useful in several aspects because the simulations make it possible to compare different agroecosystems with different management regimes, climate, soil properties, etc. The simulations also indicate which environmental factors are likely to be the most influential on weathering rates. Soil physical properties, such as moisture content, bulk density and surface area, appeared to be amongst the most important input parameters controlling actual weathering rates within groups of soils having similar mineralogical and chemical compositions. There is now a need for improved laboratory experimental data that better describe the kinetics of mineral weathering in order to enhance the accuracy and precision of PROFILE.
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| 39. |
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| 40. |
- Hopf, Sven-Eric, et al.
(författare)
-
Dendrochemical indicators of tree rings reveal historical soil acidification in Swiss forest stands
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Dendrochronologia. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 81
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The deposition of acidifying nitrogen and sulphur compounds from agriculture and fossil fuel combustion has drastically altered the chemical balance of forest soils in many regions of the world, leading to soil acidification with negative impacts on nutrient availability and thus also on tree vitality. The change of nutrient concentrations in the soil solution can be assessed by long-term investigations, however meaningful indicators, reflecting environmental changes, are needed to compare the current nutrient status with past values. We used dendrochemical indicators in stem wood of different tree species to access the impact of acidifying depositions on soil quality and tree nutrition. We selected 328 stem wood samples from 96 trees of Norway spruce (Picea abies), European beech (Fagus sylvatica), Sessile oak (Quercus petrea) and English oak (Quercus robur) from 22 forest sites, which are part of the long-term Intercantonal Forest Observation Program in Switzerland. Four time periods of 20 years were defined according to the emissions of air pollutants between 1910 and 2017. Our results showed a trend of increasing Al concentrations in tree rings of spruce peaking in the most recent time period (2000–2017). Mn and Ca concentrations in spruce and beech wood have decreased significantly throughout the time period 1910–2017. These dendrochemical indicators depended on the soil pH, with higher Al and lower Mn and Ca concentrations for soils with a low pH (pH<4.2). In oak trees the observed dendrochemical changes are confounded with dendrochemical differences between heartwood and sapwood. K and Mg showed inconsistent patterns in all three tree species, which are probably caused by translocation within the stem discs. With the use of piecewise structural equation models (SEM) we highlighted the direct and indirect influences of N deposition on element concentrations in stem wood. The data suggest a relation between increased N deposition and lower base saturation values in the forest soils for all three tree species, which were linked to higher Al concentrations in spruce and lower Mn concentrations in spruce and beech. The relation between Al concentrations in tree rings of Norway spruce and measured base saturation was used to reconstruct past soil base saturation values. It revealed a progressive soil acidification in the long-term forest observation sites. These reconstructed base saturation values were further used to validate modelled values from dynamic biogeochemical models such as SAFE/ForSAFE. This comparison pointed out possible shortcomings such as the lack of organic complexation in those models. Taken together, our analyses showed that element concentrations of Al, Mn, Ca in Norway spruce and European beech stem wood were suitable dendrochemical indicators of environmental change due to soil acidification, as they reflect both direct and indirect effects of air pollutants and chemical soil properties.
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| 41. |
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| 42. |
- Jönsson, Anna Maria, et al.
(författare)
-
Sensitivity to frost and drought.
- 2002
-
Ingår i: Developing principles and models for sustainable forestry in Sweden.. - 1402009992 ; , s. 213-216
-
Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 43. |
- Kifle, Dejene, et al.
(författare)
-
A Simple Assessment of the Global Long Term Supply of the Rare Earth Elements by Using a System Dynamics Model
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Environment and Natural Resources Research. - 1927-0496. ; 3:1, s. 77-91
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Our simple dynamic-simulation model shows that the global supply of Rare Earth Elements is limited for meeting the future demands of new technologies. Unless improved recycling policies are adapted strategic elements may become scarce in the next half-century as a result of a “peak Rare Earths Elements” phenomenon. The model results also show that the market alone cannot solve the resource-inefficiency problem because the market’s instant and opportunistic nature impedes the long-term planning that is needed. Market mechanisms will only function if governments discourage wasteful practices by requiring recycling and long-term planning as conditions for the industry before the resource becomes too scarce. We conclude that technologies and industrial capacity for effectively recycling Rare Earth Elements will be in demand, and that effective recycling policy should be put in place soon to make the supply sustainable over the long-term
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| 44. |
- Koca, Deniz, et al.
(författare)
-
A stakeholder participated system science based sustainable development indicator framework
- 2012
-
Ingår i: [Host publication title missing]. - 9781627485784
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The growing interest in sustainable development indicators (SDI) has resulted in the development and application of various SDI frameworks in the past two decades. Identification and selection of “right” indicators with such frameworks are essential, in the sense that, it is the information from these indicators that will help policy and decision makers to better understand the efficiency, effectiveness and impacts of existing sustainable development policies, as well as to develop and apply new ones. To develop the “right” indicators with the existing SDI frameworks, however, is challenging due to following three issues: 1) The majority of indicators developed by existing SDI frameworks provide information only covering individual issues, sectors or topics from disconnected three “pillars” of sustainable development – namely; environment, economy and society. These indicators are pillar-specific and do not provide information on interlinkages between different pillars. The capital/domain-based framework, for instance, is centred on the economic and environmental pillars, where as causal frameworks (Pressure-State-Respond and its variations), are limited mostly to the environmental pillar of sustainable development. Moreover, most indicators developed by the existing SDI frameworks (except for, partly the casual frameworks) lack the explicit interlinkages and cause effect relationships between each other even if they cover the same pillar of sustainable development and are sorted out under same issue, sector or topic; 2) Cases where stakeholder participation in developing indicators with existing SDI frameworks are still limited and none of the frameworks considers a design for stakeholder participation process in its structure; and 3) The existing SDI frameworks do not consider the representation of the dynamic relationships between indicators. Indicators developed by these frameworks are static in nature and lack interactivity. They provide information about the system only considering the current situation, not changing conditions in time. That is why these indicators are intended to be measured regularly and frequently to gather the information for monitoring the performed progress in the past and also assess the current situation. To address the above three issues, a stakeholder participated systems science based SDI framework is proposed in this study. The proposed framework is, in fact, a generic group-modelling process and can incorporate all other types of existing SDI frameworks (i.e. theme based, sector based, causal base, goal base etc.). The proposed SDI framework considers: 1) broad stakeholder participation for enabling discussions on trans/inter/cross disciplinary issues and ensuring exchange of knowledge for a better understanding of complex sustainability issues; 2) systems thinking, conceptual modelling and systems analysis for introducing causal loop diagramming methodology as a common communication tool among stakeholders. Conceptual modelling over a series of group workshops and systems analysis will help to identify interlinkages (cause effect relations and feedback loops) for a better understanding of the complex human, nature and the support/build systems; and 3) system dynamics modelling and integrated scenario analysis for developing numerical models to capture the dynamic complexity, and to test and experiment alternative potential policy options under different future scenarios. Such models allow the user to see dynamic relationships between indicators as well as to analyse the relevance and sensitivity of indicators. Having the methodologies to deal with the above-mentioned issues in its structure, we believe, the proposed framework not only improves the identification, selection and monitoring processes of indicators, but it also serves as a stakeholder capacity enhancement tool for analysing dynamic complex sustainability issues.
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| 45. |
- Koca, Deniz, et al.
(författare)
-
Modelling the global primary extraction, supply, price and depletion of the extractable geological resources using the COBALT model.
- 2015
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The global supply of cobalt was simulated by combining 3 different system dynamics models; BRONZE, PGM and STEEL. The present use of cobalt shows a low degree of recycling and systemic losses are significant. The reserves of cobalt are not very large (20-25 million ton extractable) as compared to metals like copper, zinc or iron, and after 2170 cobalt will have run out under a business-as-usual scenario. The present business-as-usual for cobalt use in society is in no way sustainable
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| 46. |
- Koca, Deniz, et al.
(författare)
-
The Rubber Industry and Extended Producers' Responsibility Framework: Opportunities and Threats for Swedish Rubber Manufacturers
- 2002
-
Ingår i: Proceeding of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. ; , s. 88-89
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- An array of sustainable ways either to reduce the amount of waste rubber generated or for the re-utilisation of waste rubber products as different means of resources at the end of their service lives are provided and briefly evaluated from economic, social and environmental perspectives. Potential measures which the Swedish rubber industry and its major stakeholders can implement (within the context of extended producer’s responsibility framework) to increase source reduction, reuse, material recycling, and energy recovery from waste rubber are examined. Based on the concept of system dynamics, the links between different issues, possible problems arising from them and the solutions, and their relation to the sustainable waste rubber management system are analysed by understanding the cause and effect relationship between important parameters. A model is developed using Stella 5.1.1u to help the decision makers to evaluate different scenarios in Swedish waste rubber management.
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| 47. |
- Koca, Deniz, et al.
(författare)
-
Use of Casual Loop Diagrams and Systems Analysis to Explore Alternative Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Seyhan River Basin, Turkey
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. - 9781935056102
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Within a UN Joint Programme titled “Enhancing the Capacity of Turkey to Adapt to Climate Change” a systems approach workshop was carried out in Adana, Turkey with broad stakeholder participation. The participants applied systems thinking approach, causal loop diagramming methodology and systems analysis to examine the potential impacts of projected climatic changes on natural ecosystems and socio-economical systems, as well as to explore the alternative adaptation strategies to cope with the potential negative outcomes of the climatic change in Seyhan River Basin. This paper synthesizes the outcomes of this workshop, identifies major climate change impacts and clarifies the priority adaptation measures for managing climate change vulnerability in the Seyhan River Basin. Availability and quality of water, and their implications for the region are considered to be the major priority area by the workshop participants. Results suggest that there is need for adaptive measures with an integrated water management perspective considering: • Availability and supply of ground/surface water to maintain natural ecosystems, the goods and services they provide, agricultural productivity and food security; • Efficient use of water for agricultural, residential and industrial purposes; • Drought and flood management; • Capacity building among the regional stakeholders in terms of climate change impacts and adaptation measures.
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| 48. |
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| 49. |
- Kurz, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
-
Integrated assessment of soil chemical status. 2. Application of a regionalised model to 622 forested sites in Switzerland.
- 1998
-
Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - 1573-2932. ; 105:1-2, s. 11-20
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A model, MAKEDEP, was developed for reconstructing historic atmospheric deposition and nutrient uptake for forests using present day values. Deposition is reconstructed by separation of wet deposition and throughfall into five different categories. Dry deposition is assumed to depend linearly on needle biomass. Non-marine deposition is scaled using general European emission and deposition trends for sulphur, nitrate and ammonia. Historic nutrient uptake is reconstructed using current biomass and nutrient content, a logistic forest growth curve and information on historic land use.
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| 50. |
- Kurz, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
-
Steady-State and Dynamic Assessment of Forest Soil Acidification in Switzerland.
- 2001
-
Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - 1573-2932. ; 130:1-4, s. 1217-1222
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The European steady-state Simple Mass Balance (SMB) model and the dynamic soil acidification model SAFE were used to assess the risk of future forest soil acidification in Switzerland. 2010 deposition forecasts on a 150x150 km grid resolution as well as corresponding ecosystem protection levels were obtained from RAINS model runs based on the 1999 Gothenburg Protocol obligations under the UN/ECE LRTAP Convention. Deposition values for 2010 on the national resolution were derived by scaling down present 1x1 km deposition values according to the deposition trends at the 150x150 km grid resolution. Meeting the Protocol obligations will reduce the percentage of Swiss forest ecosystems not protected against acidification between 1990 and 2010 from 41 to 4% according to the RAINS assessment and from 63 to 16% according to the assessment with the SMB at the 1x1 km resolution. The dynamic approach indicates, however, that soil conditions may not improve as much as these steady-state models suggest. By 2010, 39% of the sites considered will still have soil solution Bc/Al molar ratios below 1 at least in one soil layer. Nevertheless, deposition reductions obtained from the implementation of the new protocol will prevent the major part of Swiss forest soils from further acidification. Aiming at recovery of the more sensitive forest ecosystems would require emission reductions beyond the Protocol's obligations.
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