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- Tao, Liangyan, et al.
(författare)
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Optimal due date quoting for a risk-averse decision-maker under CVaR
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Production Research. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0020-7543 .- 1366-588X. ; 56:5, s. 1934-1959
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study investigates a due date quoting problem for a project with stochastic duration, taking the decision-maker's risk attitude into consideration. The project profit is defined as the difference between the price and the cost that is comprised of production cost and earliness-tardiness penalties. In this situation, the due date determination has to be modelled as a stochastic optimisation due to stochastic duration. Conditional value at risk is thus employed as a performance measure to describe the decision-maker's risk attitude. In fixed price contract, when the unit production cost is not smaller than the unit penalty on earliness, the optimal due date increases with the increase of the degree of a decision-maker's risk aversion, the unit penalty on delay, and the decrease of the unit penalty on earliness. Besides, when the price is proportional to the due date and the slope is no bigger than the unit penalty on tardiness, the optimal due date is smaller than the result in fixed price. This is because high price for a short due date encourages a decision-maker to quote a small due date. Further, we compare the optimal due date in different parameter setting where the penalty coefficient of earliness is negative or zero, which means there is reward or no penalty on earliness, respectively. Finally, a case study is conducted to validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed model.
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| 2. |
- Tao, Liangyan, et al.
(författare)
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Schedule risk analysis for new-product development : The GERT method extended by a characteristic function
- 2017
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Ingår i: Reliability Engineering & System Safety. - : Elsevier BV. - 0951-8320 .- 1879-0836. ; 167, s. 464-473
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Schedule risk analysis plays a key role in new product development. A typical project-schedule model using the Critical Path Method (CPM) and Program, Evaluation, and Review Technique (PERT) falls short in many practical situations. Instead, a graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) has been recommended for its ability to address probability branches and loops. This paper introduces a GERT model based on a characteristic function and designs its numerical solution. First, an inversion formula is applied to derive the probability distribution of the completion time of a product development. Second, to address the implications of a due date, a novel measure of schedule risk is introduced to give a view of both loss and probability. Third, an elasticity analysis is used to identify the network parameters that facilitate the control of schedule risk. A case study of new product development in a high-technology enterprise is presented to demonstrate the proposed methods. The approach will be useful in schedule risk analysis across several problem domains including engineering, environment, management, economic development, etc.
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