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| 2. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 4. |
- Edlmann, E, et al.
(författare)
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Dex-CSDH randomised, placebo-controlled trial of dexamethasone for chronic subdural haematoma: report of the internal pilot phase
- 2019
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Ingår i: Scientific reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 9:1, s. 5885-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Dex-CSDH trial is a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of dexamethasone for patients with a symptomatic chronic subdural haematoma. The trial commenced with an internal pilot, whose primary objective was to assess the feasibility of multi-centre recruitment. Primary outcome data collection and safety were also assessed, whilst maintaining blinding. We aimed to recruit 100 patients from United Kingdom Neurosurgical Units within 12 months. Trial participants were randomised to a 2-week course of dexamethasone or placebo in addition to receiving standard care (which could include surgery). The primary outcome measure of the trial is the modified Rankin Scale at 6 months. This pilot recruited ahead of target; 100 patients were recruited within nine months of commencement. 47% of screened patients consented to recruitment. The primary outcome measure was collected in 98% of patients. No safety concerns were raised by the independent data monitoring and ethics committee and only five patients were withdrawn from drug treatment. Pilot trial data can inform on the design and resource provision for substantive trials. This internal pilot was successful in determining recruitment feasibility. Excellent follow-up rates were achieved and exploratory outcome measures were added to increase the scientific value of the trial.
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| 5. |
- Antonioli, P, et al.
(författare)
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The AQUA-RICH atmospheric neutrino experiment
- 1999
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Ingår i: NUCLEAR INSTRUMENTS & METHODS IN PHYSICS RESEARCH SECTION A-ACCELERATORS SPECTROMETERS DETECTORS AND ASSOCIATED EQUIPMENT. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 0168-9002. ; 433:1-2, s. 104-120
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We describe a 125 m diameter spherical detector containing 1 Mt of water, capable of high rate observation of atmospheric neutrino events (30000/y). The ring imaging Cherenkov (RICH) technique is used to measure velocity, momentum and direction of particl
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| 15. |
- Moreau, V., et al.
(författare)
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Pool CFD modelling : lessons from the SESAME project
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nuclear Engineering and Design. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA. - 0029-5493 .- 1872-759X. ; 355
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The current paper describes the Computational Fluid-Dynamics (CFD) modelling of Heavy Liquid Metal (HLM) flows in a pool configuration and in particular how this is approached within the Horizon 2020 SESAME project. SESAME's work package structure, based on a systematic approach of redundancy and diversification, is explained along with its motivation. The main achievements obtained and the main lessons learned during the project are illustrated. The paper focuses on the strong coupling between the experimental activities and CFD simulations performed within the SESAME project. Two different HLM fluids are investigated: pure lead and Lead-Bismuth Eutectic. The objective is to make CFD a valid instrument used during the design of safe and innovative Gen-IV nuclear plants. Some effort has also been devoted to Proper Orthogonal Decomposition with Galerkin projection modelling (POD-Galerkin), a reduced order model suited for Uncertainty Quantification that operates by post-processing CFD results. Assessment of Uncertainty highly improves the reliability of CFD simulations. Dedicated experimental campaigns on heavily instrumented facilities have been conceived with the specific objective to build a series of datasets suited for the calibration and validation of the CFD modelling. In pool configuration, the attention is focused on the balance between conductive and convective heat transfer phenomena, on transient test-cases representative of incidental scenarios and on the possible occurrence of solidification phenomena. Four test sections have been selected to generate the datasets: (i) the CIRCE facility from ENEA, (ii) the TALL-3D pool test section from KTH, (iii) the TALL-3D Solidification Test Section (STS) from KTH and (iv) the SESAME Stand facility from CVR. While CIRCE and TALL-3D were existing facilities, the STS and SESAME Stand facility have been conceived, built and operated within the project, heavily relying on the use of CFD support. Care has been taken to ensure that almost all tasks were performed by at least two partners. Specific examples are given on how this strategy has allowed to uncover flaws and overcome pitfalls. Furthermore, an overview of the performed work and the achieved results is presented, as well as remaining or new uncovered issues. Finally, the paper is concluded with a description of one of the main goals of the SESAME project: the construction of the Gen-IV ALFRED CFD model and an investigation of its general circulation.
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| 20. |
- Levy, Rebecca C., et al.
(författare)
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Outflows from Super Star Clusters in the Central Starburst of NGC 253
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 912:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Young massive clusters play an important role in the evolution of their host galaxies, and feedback from the high-mass stars in these clusters can have profound effects on the surrounding interstellar medium. The nuclear starburst in the nearby galaxy NGC 253 at a distance of 3.5 Mpc is a key laboratory in which to study star formation in an extreme environment. Previous high-resolution (1.9 pc) dust continuum observations from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) discovered 14 compact, massive super star clusters (SSCs) still in formation. We present here ALMA data at 350 GHz with 28 mas (0.5 pc) resolution. We detect blueshifted absorption and redshifted emission (P-Cygni profiles) toward three of these SSCs in multiple lines, including CS 7-6 and (HCN)-C-13 4-3, which represent direct evidence for previously unobserved outflows. The mass contained in these outflows is a significant fraction of the cluster gas masses, which suggests we are witnessing a short but important phase. Further evidence of this is the finding of a molecular shell around the only SSC visible at near-IR wavelengths. We model the P-Cygni line profiles to constrain the outflow geometry, finding that the outflows must be nearly spherical. Through a comparison of the outflow properties with predictions from simulations, we find that none of the available mechanisms completely explains the observations, although dust-reprocessed radiation pressure and O star stellar winds are the most likely candidates. The observed outflows will have a very substantial effect on the clusters' evolution and star formation efficiency.
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| 22. |
- Aspenberg, Per, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of Teriparatide Compared with Risedronate on Recovery After Pertrochanteric Hip Fracture Results of a Randomized, Active-Controlled, Double-Blind Clinical Trial at 26 Weeks
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery. American volume. - : JOURNAL BONE JOINT SURGERY. - 0021-9355 .- 1535-1386. ; 98:22
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Osteoporosis drugs might affect fracture-healing. We therefore studied the effects of teriparatide in comparison with risedronate on recovery after pertrochanteric hip fractures. Methods: The study was a randomized, multicenter, active-controlled, 78-week trial comparing teriparatide (20 mg/day) with risedronate (35 mg/week) initiated within 2 weeks after fixation of a low-trauma pertrochanteric hip fracture (AO/OTA 31-A1 or 31-A2). The main inclusion criteria were a bone mineral density T-score of amp;lt;=-22.0 and 25-OH-vitamin D of amp;gt;= 9.2 ng/mL. During the first 26 weeks, patients received study medication with oral or injectable placebo plus calcium and vitamin D in a double-blinded fashion. Secondary (Timed Up-and-Go [TUG] test, hip pain, Short Form [SF]-36 health status, and safety) and exploratory (radiographic outcomes and ability to walk) 26-week end points are reported. Results: Of the 224 patients who were randomized, 171 (86 teriparatide, 85 risedronate) were included in the analysis. The mean age was 77 +/- 8 years, 77% were female, and 26% had a prior history of low-trauma fracture. The teriparatide group completed the TUG test in a shorter time at 6, 12, 18, and 26 weeks (differences of 25.7, -4.4, -3.1, and -3.1 seconds, respectively; p = 0.021 for the overall difference). They also reported less pain on a visual analog scale immediately after the TUG test at 12 and 18 weeks (adjusted absolute differences of 10.6 and 11.9 mm, respectively; p amp;lt; 0.05). There were no significant between-group differences in the SF-36 score, Charnley hip pain score, ability to walk, or use of walking aids during follow-up. Radiographic healing at 6, 12, and 26 weeks, mechanical failure of the implant (teriparatide, 7; risedronate, 8), loss of reduction (teriparatide, 2; risedronate, 4), and nonunion (0 cases) were not significantly different. Mild hypercalcemia and hyperuricemia were more frequent with teriparatide. Conclusions: Teriparatide was associated with less pain and a shorter time to complete the TUG test between 6 and 26 weeks compared with risedronate. Other fracture-recovery outcomes were similar. The results should be interpreted with caution as these were secondary end points.
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| 23. |
- Catena, Riccardo, 1978, et al.
(författare)
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Atomic responses to general dark matter-electron interactions
- 2020
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Ingår i: Physical Review Research. - 2643-1564. ; 2:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the leading paradigm of modern cosmology, about 80% of our Universe's matter content is in the form of hypothetical, as yet undetected particles. These do not emit or absorb radiation at any observable wavelengths, and therefore constitute the so-called dark matter (DM) component of the Universe. Detecting the particles forming the Milky Way DM component is one of the main challenges for astroparticle physics and basic science in general. One promising way to achieve this goal is to search for rare DM-electron interactions in low-background deep underground detectors. Key to the interpretation of this search is the response of detectors' materials to elementary DM-electron interactions defined in terms of electron wave functions' overlap integrals. In this work, we compute the response of atomic argon and xenon targets used in operating DM search experiments to general, so far unexplored DM-electron interactions. We find that the rate at which atoms can be ionized via DM-electron scattering can in general be expressed in terms of four independent atomic responses, three of which we identify here for the first time. We find our new atomic responses to be numerically important in a variety of cases, which we identify and investigate thoroughly using effective theory methods. We then use our atomic responses to set 90% confidence level (C.L.) exclusion limits on the strength of a wide range of DM-electron interactions from the null result of DM search experiments using argon and xenon targets.
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| 26. |
- Gremmelspacher, Jonas Manuel, et al.
(författare)
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Future climate resilience through informed decision making in retrofitting projects
- 2020
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Ingår i: Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2020 : 20th International Conference, Proceedings - 20th International Conference, Proceedings. - Cham : Springer International Publishing. - 1611-3349 .- 0302-9743. - 9783030588076 - 9783030588083 ; 12251 LNCS, s. 352-364
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- High energy use for space conditioning in residential buildings is a significant economic factor for owners and tenants, but also contributes to resource depletion and carbon emissions due to energy generation. Many existing dwellings should thus be retrofitted in order to fulfil the ambitious EU carbon emission mitigation goals by 2050. To investigate how future climate resilience can be implemented in the design process of retrofitting measures, this study concentrates on real case studies that have been retrofitted during the past decade. The performance of retrofitting measures for four case studies in Denmark and Germany were investigated under future climate projections and compared between the non-retrofitted initial stage of the buildings and the retrofitted stage. Building performance simulations were employed to investigate how severe the effects of climate change until the end of the 21st century on the material choice and system design is. Results show that summertime thermal comfort will be a major challenge in the future. Energy use for space heating was seen to decrease for periods in the future, also the severity of cold events decreased, resulting in a decline of heating peak loads. Additionally, not considering extreme events was proven to lead to miss-dimensioning thermal systems. Overall, the study shows that adaptation of informed decisions, accounting for the uncertainties of future climate, can bring a significant benefit for energy-efficient retrofits, potentially promoting adequate passive measures as well as free cooling to prevent overheating and enhance heat removal.
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| 27. |
- Levy, Rebecca C., et al.
(författare)
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The Morpho-kinematic Architecture of Super Star Clusters in the Center of NGC 253
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 935:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The center of the nearby galaxy NGC 253 hosts a population of more than a dozen super star clusters (SSCs) that are still in the process of forming. The majority of the star formation of the burst is concentrated in these SSCs, and the starburst is powering a multiphase outflow from the galaxy. In this work, we measure the 350 GHz dust continuum emission toward the center of NGC 253 at 47 mas (0.8 pc) resolution using data from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array. We report the detection of 350 GHz (dust) continuum emission in the outflow for the first time, associated with the prominent South-West streamer. In this feature, the dust emission has a width of approximate to 8 pc, is located at the outer edge of the CO emission, and corresponds to a molecular gas mass of similar to(8-17)x10(6) M (circle dot). In the starburst nucleus, we measure the resolved radial profiles, sizes, and molecular gas masses of the SSCs. Compared to previous work at the somewhat lower spatial resolution, the SSCs here break apart into smaller substructures with radii 0.4-0.7 pc. In projection, the SSCs, dust, and dense molecular gas appear to be arranged as a thin, almost linear, structure roughly 155 pc in length. The morphology and kinematics of this structure can be well explained as gas following x (2) orbits at the center of a barred potential. We constrain the morpho-kinematic arrangement of the SSCs themselves, finding that an elliptical, angular-momentum-conserving ring is a good description of both the morphology and kinematics of the SSCs.
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| 28. |
- Malouf-Sierra, Jorge, et al.
(författare)
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Effect of Teriparatide or Risedronate in Elderly Patients With a Recent Pertrochanteric Hip Fracture: Final Results of a 78-Week Randomized Clinical Trial
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Bone and Mineral Research. - : WILEY. - 0884-0431 .- 1523-4681. ; 32:5, s. 1040-1051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present final results of a study comparing teriparatide 20g every day (QD) with risedronate 35mg once per week (QW) started within 2 weeks after surgery for a pertrochanteric hip fracture. Patients with BMD T-score-2.0 and 25OHD 9.2ng/mL were randomized to receive 26-week double-dummy treatment plus calcium and vitamin D, followed by 52-week open-label treatment with the same assigned active drug. Primary endpoint was change from baseline in lumbar spine (LS) BMD at 78 weeks. Secondary and exploratory endpoints were change in BMD at the proximal femur, function, hip pain (Charnley score and 100mm Visual Analog Scale [VAS]), quality of life (Short Form-36), radiology outcomes, and safety. Data were analyzed with mixed models for repeated measures (MMRM) and logistic regression. Totally, 224 patients were randomized; 171 (teriparatide: 86) contributed to the efficacy analyses (mean +/- SD age: 77 +/- 7.7 years, 77% females). Mean baseline LS, femoral neck (FN), and total hip (TH) T-scores were -2.16, -2.63, and -2.51, respectively. At 78 weeks, BMD increased significantly more with teriparatide compared to risedronate at the LS (+11.08% versus +6.45%; pamp;lt;0.001) and FN (+1.96% versus -1.19%; p=0.003), with no significant between-group difference in TH BMD. Timed up-and-go (TUG) test was significantly faster with teriparatide at 6, 12, 18, and 26 weeks (differences: -3.2 to -5.9s; p=0.045 for overall difference). Hip pain during TUG test by 100mm VAS was significantly lower with teriparatide at 18 weeks (adjusted difference: -11.3mm, p=0.033; -10.0 and -9.3mm at 12 and 26 weeks, respectively; p=0.079 for overall difference). Other secondary and exploratory outcomes were not different. Teriparatide group showed two new hip fractures versus seven with risedronate (p=0.171) and more frequent hypercalcemia and hyperuricemia. In conclusion, 78-week treatment with teriparatide showed significantly greater increases in LS and FN BMD, less pain, and a faster TUG test versus risedronate. (c) 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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| 29. |
- Rotili, Dante, et al.
(författare)
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2-(Alkyl/aryl)amino-6-benzylpyrimidin-4(3H)-ones as inhibitors of wild-type and mutant HIV-1 : enantioselectivity studies.
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of Medicinal Chemistry. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0022-2623 .- 1520-4804. ; 55:7, s. 3558-62
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The single enantiomers of two pyrimidine-based HIV-1 non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, 1 (MC1501) and 2 (MC2082), were tested in both cellular and enzyme assays. In general, the R forms were more potent than their S counterparts and racemates and (R)-2 was more efficient than (R)-1 and the reference compounds, with some exceptions. Interestingly, (R)-2 displayed a faster binding to K103N RT with respect to WT RT, while (R)-1 showed the opposite behavior.
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| 30. |
- Rotili, Dante, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring the role of 2-chloro-6-fluoro substitution in 2-alkylthio-6-benzyl-5-alkylpyrimidin-4(3H)-ones : effects in HIV-1-infected cells and in HIV-1 reverse transcriptase enzymes.
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Medicinal Chemistry. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0022-2623 .- 1520-4804. ; 57:12, s. 5212-25
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A comparison of the effects of the 6-(2-chloro-6-fluorobenzyl)-2-(alkylthio)pyrimidin-4(3H)-ones (2-Cl-6-F-S-DABOs) 7-12 and the related 6-(2,6-difluorobenzyl) counterparts 13-15 in HIV-1 infected cells and in the HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT) assays is here described. The new 2-Cl-6-F-S-DABOs showed up to picomolar activity against wt HIV-1. Against clinically relevant HIV-1 mutants and in enzyme assays, the simultaneous C5(methyl)/C6(methyl/ethyl) substitution in the 2-Cl-6-F- and 2,6-F2-benzyl series furnished compounds with the highest, wide-spectrum inhibitory activity against HIV-1. Three representative 2-Cl-6-F-S-DABOs carrying two (9c, 10c) or one (10a) stereogenic centers were resolved into their individual stereoisomers and showed a significant diastereo- and enantioselectivity in HIV-1 inhibition, the highest antiviral activity well correlating with the R absolute configuration to the stereogenic center of the C6-benzylic position in both cellular and enzymatic tests. Application of previously reported COMBINEr protocol on 9c and 10c confirmed the influence of the stereogenic centers on their binding modes in the HIV-1 RT.
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| 31. |
- Tudisco, Erika, et al.
(författare)
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Influence of fissure inclination and confining pressure on the local behaviour of natural clays
- 2019
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Ingår i: 7th International Symposium on Deformation Characteristics of Geomaterials, IS-Glasgow 2019. - : EDP Sciences. - 2267-1242. - 9782759890644 ; 92
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this experimental study the influence of fissuring orientation and confinement pressure on the mechanical behaviour of natural clays is investigated. The tested material, the scaly clay from Santa Croce di Magliano (south of Italy), is characterised by an intense network of pre-existing fissures of single orientation. Several plane strain compression tests have been conducted, under different confinement pressures (i.e., from 50 to 600 kPa), on specimens having fissures with vertical, medium and horizontal inclination. Digital Image Correlation has been used to follow the deformation processes of the specimens throughout the tests by measuring incremental shear and volumetric strain maps. The results showed a strong coupling between the total confinement and the fissure inclination, that is controlling both the onset and the development of the patterns of the localisation processes. The new results have been compared with previous ones carried out on the same material without confinement. The comparison shed light on the role of total confinement that becomes particularly relevant from certain levels of pressures and fissuring inclination.
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