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1.	Alvarez, E. M., et al. (författare) The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 2022 Ingår i: Lancet Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1470-2045. ; 23:1, s. 27-52 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
2.	Fullman, N., et al. (författare) Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 2018 Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 391:10136, s. 2236-2271 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97.1 (95% UI 95.8-98.1) in Iceland, followed by 96.6 (94.9-97.9) in Norway and 96.1 (94.5-97.3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18.6 (13.1-24.4) in the Central African Republic, 19.0 (14.3-23.7) in Somalia, and 23.4 (20.2-26.8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91.5 (89.1-936) in Beijing to 48.0 (43.4-53.2) in Tibet (a 43.5-point difference), while India saw a 30.8-point disparity, from 64.8 (59.6-68.8) in Goa to 34.0 (30.3-38.1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4.8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20.9-point to 17.0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17.2-point to 20.4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view and subsequent provision of quality health care for all populations. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
3.	Hay, S. I., et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 2017 Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1260-1344 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75Â·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71Â·9-78Â·6) for females and 72Â·0 years (68Â·8-75Â·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45Â·6 years [42Â·0-49Â·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41Â·5 years [39Â·0-44Â·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6Â·24 years (5Â·97-6Â·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6Â·04 years (5Â·74-6Â·27) for males and 6Â·49 years (6Â·08-6Â·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1Â·78 years (1Â·61-1Â·93) for males and 1Â·96 years (1Â·69-2Â·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2Â·3% [-5Â·9 to 0Â·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16Â·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. Â© The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
4.	Vos, T., et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 2017 Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1211-1259 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57.6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40.8-75.9 million [7.2%, 6.0-8.3]), 45.1 million (29.0-62.8 million [5.6%, 4.0-7.2]), 36.3 million (25.3-50.9 million [4.5%, 3.8-5.3]), 34.7 million (23.0-49.6 million [4.3%, 3.5-5.2]), and 34.1 million (23.5-46.0 million [4.2%, 3.2-5.3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2.7% (95% UI 2.3-3.1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10.4% (95% UI 9.0-11.8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). Interpretation The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-todate information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
5.	Sharma, R., et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 2022 Ingår i: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:7, s. 627-647 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades. Methods Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer. Findings Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2.17 million (2.00-2.34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1.09 million (1.02-1.15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22.2 (95% UI 21.3-23.0) per 100 000 to 26.7 (24.6-28.9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14.3 (13.5-14.9) per 100 000 to 13.7 (12.6-14.5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308.5 (294.7-320.7) per 100 000 to 295.5 (275.2-313.0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62.0 [48.9-80.0] per 100 000), Monaco (60.7 [48.5-73.6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56.6 [42.8-71.9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31.4 [26.0-37.1] per 100 000), Brunei (30.3 [26.6-34.1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28.6 [23.6-34.0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15.6%), smoking (13.3%), a diet low in calcium (12.9%), and alcohol use (9.9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019. Interpretation The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
6.	Alvarez, EM, et al. (författare) The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 2022 Ingår i: The Lancet. Oncology. - 1474-5488. ; 23:1, s. 27-52 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
7.	Kyu, HH, et al. (författare) Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 2022 Ingår i: The Lancet. Infectious diseases. - 1474-4457. ; 22:11, s. 1626-1647 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
8.	Sharma, R, et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 2022 Ingår i: The lancet. Gastroenterology & hepatology. - 2468-1253. ; 7:7, s. 627-647 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
9.	Abbafati, Cristiana, et al. (författare) 2020 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
10.	Lozano, Rafael, et al. (författare) Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2018 Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
11.	Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (författare) Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2018 Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
12.	Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2018 Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
13.	Danaei, G, et al. (författare) Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment 2014 Ingår i: The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology. - 2213-8595 .- 2213-8587. ; 2:8, s. 634-647 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
14.	Danaei, G, et al. (författare) The global cardiovascular risk transition: associations of four metabolic risk factors with national income, urbanization, and Western diet in 1980 and 2008 2013 Ingår i: Circulation. - 1524-4539. ; 127:14, s. 1493- Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
15.	Fullman, Nancy, et al. (författare) Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 2018 Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 391:10136, s. 2236-2271 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
16.	Diaz, LA, et al. (författare) Sub-optimal global public health policies and strategies to combat hepatocellular carcinoma 2023 Ingår i: JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY. - 0168-8278. ; 78, s. S865-S867 Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
17.	Griswold, Max G., et al. (författare) Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 2018 Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
18.	Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare) Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. 2016 Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
19.	Feigin, Valery L., et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 2019 Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
20.	Clark, Andrew G., et al. (författare) Evolution of genes and genomes on the Drosophila phylogeny 2007 Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 450:7167, s. 203-218 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Comparative analysis of multiple genomes in a phylogenetic framework dramatically improves the precision and sensitivity of evolutionary inference, producing more robust results than single-genome analyses can provide. The genomes of 12 Drosophila species, ten of which are presented here for the first time (sechellia, simulans, yakuba, erecta, ananassae, persimilis, willistoni, mojavensis, virilis and grimshawi), illustrate how rates and patterns of sequence divergence across taxa can illuminate evolutionary processes on a genomic scale. These genome sequences augment the formidable genetic tools that have made Drosophila melanogaster a pre-eminent model for animal genetics, and will further catalyse fundamental research on mechanisms of development, cell biology, genetics, disease, neurobiology, behaviour, physiology and evolution. Despite remarkable similarities among these Drosophila species, we identified many putatively non-neutral changes in protein-coding genes, non-coding RNA genes, and cis-regulatory regions. These may prove to underlie differences in the ecology and behaviour of these diverse species.
21.	Adorjan, K, et al. (författare) Genotype-phenotype feasibility studies on khat abuse, traumatic experiences and psychosis in Ethiopia 2020 Ingår i: Psychiatric genetics. - 1473-5873. ; 30:1, s. 34-37 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
22.	Mokdad, Ali H., et al. (författare) Adolescent health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region : findings from the global burden of disease 2015 study 2018 Ingår i: International Journal of Public Health. - : SPRINGER BASEL AG. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63, s. 79-96 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The 22 countries of the East Mediterranean Region (EMR) have large populations of adolescents aged 10-24 years. These adolescents are central to assuring the health, development, and peace of this region. We described their health needs. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we report the leading causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents in the EMR from 1990 to 2015. We also report the prevalence of key health risk behaviors and determinants. Communicable diseases and the health consequences of natural disasters reduced substantially between 1990 and 2015. However, these gains have largely been offset by the health impacts of war and the emergence of non-communicable diseases (including mental health disorders), unintentional injury, and self-harm. Tobacco smoking and high body mass were common health risks amongst adolescents. Additionally, many EMR countries had high rates of adolescent pregnancy and unmet need for contraception. Even with the return of peace and security, adolescents will have a persisting poor health profile that will pose a barrier to socioeconomic growth and development of the EMR.
23.	Mokdad, Ali H., et al. (författare) Diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease in the Eastern Mediterranean Region : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study 2018 Ingår i: International Journal of Public Health. - : SPRINGER BASEL AG. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63, s. 177-186 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract We used findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to update our previous publication on the burden of diabetes and chronic kidney disease due to diabetes (CKD-DM) during 1990-2015. We extracted GBD 2015 estimates for prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of diabetes (including burden of low vision due to diabetes, neuropathy, and amputations and CKD-DM for 22 countries of the EMR from the GBD visualization tools. In 2015, 135,230 (95% UI 123,034-148,184) individuals died from diabetes and 16,470 (95% UI 13,977-18,961) from CKD-DM, 216 and 179% increases, respectively, compared to 1990. The total number of people with diabetes was 42.3 million (95% UI 38.6-46.4 million) in 2015. DALY rates of diabetes in 2015 were significantly higher than the expected rates based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Our study showed a large and increasing burden of diabetes in the region. There is an urgency in dealing with diabetes and its consequences, and these efforts should be at the forefront of health prevention and promotion.
24.	Adane, A, et al. (författare) Exploring data quality and use of the routine health information system in Ethiopia: a mixed-methods study 2021 Ingår i: BMJ open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 11:12, s. e050356- Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract A routine health information system (RHIS) enables decision making in the healthcare system. We aimed to analyse data quality at the district and regional level and explore factors and perceptions affecting the quality and use of routine data.DesignThis was a mixed-methods study. We used the WHO toolkit for analysing data quality and interviewed staff at the point of data generation and along with the flow of data. Data were analysed using the Performance of Routine Information System Management framework.SettingThis study was performed in eight districts in four regions of Ethiopia. The study was nested within a 2-year programme of the Operational Research and Coaching for government Analysts.ParticipantsWe visited 45 health posts, 1 district hospital, 16 health centres and 8 district offices for analysis of routine RHIS data and interviewed 117 staff members for the qualitative assessment.Outcome measuresWe assessed availability of source documents, completeness, timeliness and accuracy of reporting of routine data, and explored data quality and use perceptions.ResultsThere was variable quality of both indicator and data element. Data on maternal health and immunisation were of higher quality than data on child nutrition. Issues ranged from simple organisational factors, such as availability of register books, to intricate technical issues, like complexity of indicators and choice of denominators based on population estimates. Respondents showed knowledge of the reporting procedures, but also demonstrated limited skills, lack of supportive supervision and reporting to please the next level. We saw limited examples of the use of data by the staff who were responsible for data reporting.ConclusionWe identified important organisational, technical, behavioural and process factors that need further attention to improve the quality and use of RHIS data in Ethiopia.
25.	Adane, Abyot, et al. (författare) Routine health management information system data in Ethiopia : consistency, trends, and challenges 2021 Ingår i: Global Health Action. - : Taylor & Francis. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 14:1 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background: Ethiopia is investing in the routine Health Management Information System. Improved routine data are needed for decision-making in the health sector.Objective: To analyse the quality of the routine Health Management Information System data and triangulate with other sources, such as the Demographic and Health Surveys.Methods: We analysed national Health Management Information System data on 19 indicators of maternal health, neonatal survival, immunization, child nutrition, malaria, and tuberculosis over the 2012-2018 time period. The analyses were conducted by 38 analysts from the Ministry of Health, Ethiopia, and two government agencies who participated in the Operational Research and Coaching for Analysts (ORCA) project between June 2018 and June 2020. Using a World Health Organization Data Quality Review toolkit, we assessed indicator definitions, completeness, internal consistency over time and between related indicators, and external consistency compared with other data sources.Results: Several services reported coverage of above 100%. For many indicators, denominators were based on poor-quality population data estimates. Data on individual vaccinations had relatively good internal consistency. In contrast, there was low external consistency for data on fully vaccinated children, with the routine Health Management Information System showing 89% coverage but the Demographic and Health Survey estimate at 39%. Maternal health indicators displayed increasing coverage over time. Indicators on child nutrition, malaria, and tuberculosis were less consistent. Data on neonatal mortality were incomplete and operationalised as mortality on day 0-6. Our comparisons with survey and population projections indicated that one in eight early neonatal deaths were reported in the routine Health Management Information System. Data quality varied between regions.Conclusions: The quality of routine data gathered in the health system needs further attention. We suggest regular triangulation with data from other sources. We recommend addressing the denominator issues, reducing the complexity of indicators, and aligning indicators to international definitions.
26.	Lindblad-Toh, Kerstin, et al. (författare) Genome sequence, comparative analysis and haplotype structure of the domestic dog. 2005 Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 438:7069, s. 803-19 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Here we report a high-quality draft genome sequence of the domestic dog (Canis familiaris), together with a dense map of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across breeds. The dog is of particular interest because it provides important evolutionary information and because existing breeds show great phenotypic diversity for morphological, physiological and behavioural traits. We use sequence comparison with the primate and rodent lineages to shed light on the structure and evolution of genomes and genes. Notably, the majority of the most highly conserved non-coding sequences in mammalian genomes are clustered near a small subset of genes with important roles in development. Analysis of SNPs reveals long-range haplotypes across the entire dog genome, and defines the nature of genetic diversity within and across breeds. The current SNP map now makes it possible for genome-wide association studies to identify genes responsible for diseases and traits, with important consequences for human and companion animal health.
27.	Szarek, M, et al. (författare) Effect of Sotagliflozin on Total Hospitalizations in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Worsening Heart Failure : A Randomized Trial 2021 Ingår i: Annals of internal medicine. - 1539-3704. ; 174:8, s. 1065- Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
28.	Khalil, Ibrahim, et al. (författare) Burden of Diarrhea in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013 : Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 2016 Ingår i: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. - : American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. - 1476-1645 .- 0002-9637. ; 95:6, s. 1319-1329 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013. For both sexes and all ages, we calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. We estimate that over 125,000 deaths (3.6% of total deaths) were due to DD in the EMR in 2013, with a greater burden of DD in low- and middle-income countries. Diarrhea deaths per 100,000 children under 5 years of age ranged from one (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 0-1) in Bahrain and Oman to 471 (95% UI = 245-763) in Somalia. The pattern for diarrhea DALYs among those under 5 years of age closely followed that for diarrheal deaths. DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 739 (95% UI = 520-989) in Syria to 40,869 (95% UI = 21,540-65,823) in Somalia. Our results highlighted a highly inequitable burden of DD in EMR, mainly driven by the lack of access to proper resources such as water and sanitation. Our findings will guide preventive and treatment interventions which are based on evidence and which follow the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden.
29.	Verrest, Luka, et al. (författare) Geographical Variability in Paromomycin Pharmacokinetics Does Not Explain Efficacy Differences between Eastern African and Indian Visceral Leishmaniasis Patients. 2021 Ingår i: Clinical Pharmacokinetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0312-5963 .- 1179-1926. ; 60:11, s. 1463-1473 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract INTRODUCTION: Intramuscular paromomycin monotherapy to treat visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been shown to be effective for Indian patients, while a similar regimen resulted in lower efficacy in Eastern Africa, which could be related to differences in paromomycin pharmacokinetics.METHODS: Pharmacokinetic data were available from two randomized controlled trials in VL patients from Eastern Africa and India. African patients received intramuscular paromomycin monotherapy (20 mg/kg for 21 days) or combination therapy (15 mg/kg for 17 days) with sodium stibogluconate. Indian patients received paromomycin monotherapy (15 mg/kg for 21 days). A population pharmacokinetic model was developed for paromomycin in Eastern African and Indian VL patients.RESULTS: Seventy-four African patients (388 observations) and 528 Indian patients (1321 observations) were included in this pharmacokinetic analysis. A one-compartment model with first-order kinetics of absorption and elimination best described paromomycin in plasma. Bioavailability (relative standard error) was 1.17 (5.18%) times higher in Kenyan and Sudanese patients, and 2.46 (24.5%) times higher in Ethiopian patients, compared with Indian patients. Ethiopian patients had an approximately fourfold slower absorption rate constant of 0.446 h-1 (18.2%). Area under the plasma concentration-time curve for 24 h at steady-state (AUCτ,SS) for 15 mg/kg/day (median [interquartile range]) was higher in Kenya and Sudan (172.7 µg·h/mL [145.9-214.3]) and Ethiopia (230.1 µg·h/mL [146.3-591.2]) compared with India (97.26 µg·h/mL [80.83-123.4]).CONCLUSION: The developed model provides detailed insight into the pharmacokinetic differences among Eastern African countries and India, however the resulting differences in paromomycin exposure do not seem to explain the geographical differences in paromomycin efficacy in the treatment of VL patients.
30.	Vollert, J, et al. (författare) Stratifying patients with peripheral neuropathic pain based on sensory profiles: algorithm and sample size recommendations 2017 Ingår i: Pain. - : Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health). - 1872-6623 .- 0304-3959. ; 158:8, s. 1446-1455 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
31.	Allan, Eric, et al. (författare) Interannual variation in land-use intensity enhances grassland multidiversity 2014 Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 1091-6490 .- 0027-8424. ; 111:1, s. 308-313 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Although temporal heterogeneity is a well-accepted driver of biodiversity, effects of interannual variation in land-use intensity (LUI) have not been addressed yet. Additionally, responses to land use can differ greatly among different organisms; therefore, overall effects of land-use on total local biodiversity are hardly known. To test for effects of LUI (quantified as the combined intensity of fertilization, grazing, and mowing) and interannual variation in LUI (SD in LUI across time), we introduce a unique measure of whole-ecosystem biodiversity, multidiversity. This synthesizes individual diversity measures across up to 49 taxonomic groups of plants, animals, fungi, and bacteria from 150 grasslands. Multidiversity declined with increasing LUI among grasslands, particularly for rarer species and aboveground organisms, whereas common species and belowground groups were less sensitive. However, a high level of interannual variation in LUI increased overall multidiversity at low LUI and was even more beneficial for rarer species because it slowed the rate at which the multidiversity of rare species declined with increasing LUI. In more intensively managed grasslands, the diversity of rarer species was, on average, 18% of the maximum diversity across all grasslands when LUI was static over time but increased to 31% of the maximum when LUI changed maximally over time. In addition to decreasing overall LUI, we suggest varying LUI across years as a complementary strategy to promote biodiversity conservation.
32.	Birkhofer, Klaus, et al. (författare) General Relationships between Abiotic Soil Properties and Soil Biota across Spatial Scales and Different Land-Use Types. 2012 Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 7:8 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Very few principles have been unraveled that explain the relationship between soil properties and soil biota across large spatial scales and different land-use types. Here, we seek these general relationships using data from 52 differently managed grassland and forest soils in three study regions spanning a latitudinal gradient in Germany. We hypothesize that, after extraction of variation that is explained by location and land-use type, soil properties still explain significant proportions of variation in the abundance and diversity of soil biota. If the relationships between predictors and soil organisms were analyzed individually for each predictor group, soil properties explained the highest amount of variation in soil biota abundance and diversity, followed by land-use type and sampling location. After extraction of variation that originated from location or land-use, abiotic soil properties explained significant amounts of variation in fungal, meso- and macrofauna, but not in yeast or bacterial biomass or diversity. Nitrate or nitrogen concentration and fungal biomass were positively related, but nitrate concentration was negatively related to the abundances of Collembola and mites and to the myriapod species richness across a range of forest and grassland soils. The species richness of earthworms was positively correlated with clay content of soils independent of sample location and land-use type. Our study indicates that after accounting for heterogeneity resulting from large scale differences among sampling locations and land-use types, soil properties still explain significant proportions of variation in fungal and soil fauna abundance or diversity. However, soil biota was also related to processes that act at larger spatial scales and bacteria or soil yeasts only showed weak relationships to soil properties. We therefore argue that more general relationships between soil properties and soil biota can only be derived from future studies that consider larger spatial scales and different land-use types.
33.	Hailu, Beyene Zewdie, et al. (författare) Genetic composition of Arabica coffee explains fungal disease incidence in its area of origin Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
34.	Marchettini, P, et al. (författare) Are there different predictors of analgesic response between antidepressants and anticonvulsants in painful diabetic neuropathy? 2016 Ingår i: European Journal of Pain. - : Wiley. - 1090-3801 .- 1532-2149. ; 20:3, s. 472-82 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract BACKGROUND: To investigate baseline demographics and disease characteristics as predictors of the analgesic effect of duloxetine and pregabalin on diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain (DPNP).METHODS: Based on data from the COMBO-DN study, a multinational clinical trial in DPNP, the potential impact of baseline characteristics on pain relief after 8-week monotherapy with 60 mg/day duloxetine or 300 mg/day pregabalin was assessed using analyses of covariance. Subgroups of interest were characterized regarding their baseline characteristics and efficacy outcomes.RESULTS: A total of 804 patients were evaluated at baseline. A significant interaction with treatment was observed in the mood symptom subgroups with a larger pain reduction in duloxetine-treated patients having no mood symptoms [Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) depression or anxiety subscale score <11; -2.33 (duloxetine); -1.52 (pregabalin); p = 0.024]. There were no significant interactions between treatment for subgroups by age (<65 or ≥65 years), gender, baseline pain severity [Brief Pain Inventory Modified Short Form (BPI-MSF) average pain <6 or ≥6], diabetic neuropathy duration (≤2 or >2 years), baseline haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) (<8% or ≥8%), presence of comorbidities and concomitant medication use.CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses suggest that the efficacy of duloxetine and pregabalin for initial 8-week treatment in DPNP was consistent across examined subgroups based on demographics and disease characteristics at baseline except for the presence of mood symptoms. Duloxetine treatment appeared to be particularly beneficial in DPNP patients having no mood symptoms.
35.	Plymoth, Martin, et al. (författare) Socio-economic condition and lack of virological suppression among adults and adolescents receiving antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia 2020 Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 15:12 December Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Introduction The potential impact of socio-economic condition on virological suppression during antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa is largely unknown. In this case-control study, we compared socio-economic factors among Ethiopian ART recipients with lack of virological suppression to those with undetectable viral load (VL). Methods Cases (VL>1000 copies/ml) and controls (VL<150 copies/ml) aged ≥15years, with ART for >6 months and with available VL results within the last 3 months, were identified from registries at public ART clinics in Central Ethiopia. Questionnaire-based interviews on socio-economic characteristics, health condition and transmission risk behavior were conducted. Univariate variables associated with VL>1000 copies/ml (p<0.25) were added to a multivariable logistic regression model. Results Among 307 participants (155 cases, 152 controls), 61.2% were female, and the median age was 38 years (IQR 32-46). Median HIV-RNA load among cases was 6, 904 copies/ml (IQR 2, 843-26, 789). Compared to controls, cases were younger (median 36 vs. 39 years; p = 0.004), more likely to be male (46.5% vs. 30.9%; p = 0.005) and had lower pre-ART CD4 cell counts (170 vs. 220 cells/μl; p = 0.009). In multivariable analysis of urban residents (94.8%), VL>1000 copies/ml was associated with lower relative wealth (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.98; 95% CI 1.49-5.94; p = 0.016), geographic work mobility (aOR 6.27, 95% CI 1.82-21.6; p = 0.016), younger age (aOR 0.94 [year], 95% CI 0.91-0.98; p = 0.011), longer duration of ART (aOR 1.19 [year], 95% CI 1.07-1.33; p = 0.020), and suboptimal (aOR 3.83, 95% CI 1.33-10.2; p = 0.048) or poor self-perceived wellbeing (aOR 9.75, 95% CI 2.85-33.4; p = 0.012), after correction for multiple comparisons. High-risk sexual behavior and substance use was not associated with lack of virological suppression. Conclusion Geographic work mobility and lower relative wealth were associated with lack of virological suppression among Ethiopian ART recipients in this predominantly urban population. These characteristics indicate increased risk of treatment failure and the need for targeted interventions for persons with these risk factors.
36.	Soliveres, Santiago, et al. (författare) Biodiversity at multiple trophic levels is needed for ecosystem multifunctionality 2016 Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 536:7617, s. 456-459 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Many experiments have shown that loss of biodiversity reduces the capacity of ecosystems to provide the multiple services on which humans depend. However, experiments necessarily simplify the complexity of natural ecosystems and will normally control for other important drivers of ecosystem functioning, such as the environment or land use. In addition, existing studies typically focus on the diversity of single trophic groups, neglecting the fact that biodiversity loss occurs across many taxa and that the functional effects of any trophic group may depend on the abundance and diversity of others. Here we report analysis of the relationships between the species richness and abundance of nine trophic groups, including 4,600 above- and below-ground taxa, and 14 ecosystem services and functions and with their simultaneous provision (or multifunctionality) in 150 grasslands. We show that high species richness in multiple trophic groups (multitrophic richness) had stronger positive effects on ecosystem services than richness in any individual trophic group; this includes plant species richness, the most widely used measure of biodiversity. On average, three trophic groups influenced each ecosystem service, with each trophic group influencing at least one service. Multitrophic richness was particularly beneficial for 'regulating' and 'cultural' services, and for multifunctionality, whereas a change in the total abundance of species or biomass in multiple trophic groups (the multitrophic abundance) positively affected supporting services. Multitrophic richness and abundance drove ecosystem functioning as strongly as abiotic conditions and land-use intensity, extending previous experimental results to real-world ecosystems. Primary producers, herbivorous insects and microbial decomposers seem to be particularly important drivers of ecosystem functioning, as shown by the strong and frequent positive associations of their richness or abundance with multiple ecosystem services. Our results show that multitrophic richness and abundance support ecosystem functioning, and demonstrate that a focus on single groups has led to researchers to greatly underestimate the functional importance of biodiversity.
37.	Soliveres, Santiago, et al. (författare) Locally rare species influence grassland ecosystem multifunctionality 2016 Ingår i: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8436 .- 1471-2970. ; 371:1694 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Species diversity promotes the delivery of multiple ecosystem functions (multifunctionality). However, the relative functional importance of rare and common species in driving the biodiversity-multifunctionality relationship remains unknown. We studied the relationship between the diversity of rare and common species (according to their local abundances and across nine different trophic groups), and multifunctionality indices derived from 14 ecosystem functions on 150 grasslands across a land-use intensity (LUI) gradient. The diversity of above-and below-ground rare species had opposite effects, with rare above-ground species being associated with high levels of multifunctionality, probably because their effects on different functions did not trade off against each other. Conversely, common species were only related to average, not high, levels of multifunctionality, and their functional effects declined with LUI. Apart from the community-level effects of diversity, we found significant positive associations between the abundance of individual species and multifunctionality in 6% of the species tested. Species-specific functional effects were best predicted by their response to LUI: species that declined in abundance with land use intensification were those associated with higher levels of multifunctionality. Our results highlight the importance of rare species for ecosystem multifunctionality and help guiding future conservation priorities.
38.	Sowe, Alieu, et al. (författare) Epidemiology of measles cases, vaccine effectiveness, and performance towards measles elimination in The Gambia 2021 Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 16:10 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Introduction In 2011, member states of the World Health Organization (WHO) Africa Regional Office (AFRO) resolved to eliminate Measles by 2020. Our study aims to assess The Gambia's progress towards the set AFRO measles elimination target and highlight surveillance and immunisation gaps to better inform future measles prevention strategies. Material and methods A retrospective review of measles surveillance data for the period 2011-2019, was extracted from The Gambia case-based measles surveillance database. WHO-UNICEF national coverage estimates were used for estimating national level MCV coverage. Measles post campaign coverage survey coverage estimates were used to estimate national measles campaign coverage. Results One hundred and twenty-five of the 863 reported suspected cases were laboratory confirmed as measles cases. More than half (53.6%) of the confirmed cases have unknown vaccination status, 24% of cases were vaccinated, 52.8% of cases occurred among males, and 72.8% cases were among urban residents. The incidence of measles cases per million population was lowest (0) in 2011-2012 and highest in 2015 and 2016 (31 and 23 respectively). The indicator for surveillance sensitivity was met in all years except in 2016 and 2019. Children aged 5-9 years (Incidence Rate Ratio-IRR = 0.6) and residents of Central River region (IRR = 0.21) had lower measles risk whilst unvaccinated (Adjusted IRR = 5.95) and those with unknown vaccination status (IRR 2.21) had higher measles risk. Vaccine effectiveness was 89.5%. Conclusion The Gambia's quest to attain measles elimination status by 2020 has registered significant success but it is unlikely that all target indicators will be met. Vaccination has been very effective in preventing cases. There is variation in measles risk by health region, and it will be important to take it into account when designing prevention and control strategies. The quality of case investigations should be improved to enhance the quality of surveillance for decision making.
39.	Spolidoro, G. C. I., et al. (författare) Prevalence estimates of eight big food allergies in Europe: Updated systematic review and meta-analysis 2023 Ingår i: Allergy. - 0105-4538 .- 1398-9995. ; 78:9, s. 2361-2417 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract In 2014, the European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology published prevalence estimates for food allergy (FA) and food sensitization (FS) to the so-called eight big food allergens (i.e. cow's milk, egg, wheat, soy, peanut, tree nuts, fish and shellfish) in Europe for studies published between 2000 and 2012. The current work provides 10-year updated prevalence estimates for these food allergens. A protocol was registered on PROSPERO before starting the research (reference number CRD42021266657). Six databases were searched for studies published 2012-2021, added to studies published up to 2012, resulting in a total of 93 studies. Most studies were graded as at moderate risk of bias. The overall pooled estimates for all age groups of self-reported lifetime prevalence were as follows: cow's milk (5.7%, 95% confidence interval 4.4-6.9), egg (2.4%, 1.8-3.0), wheat (1.6%, 0.9-2.3), soy (0.5%, 0.3-0.7), peanut (1.5%, 1.0-2.1), tree nuts (0.9%, 0.6-1.2), fish (1.4%, 0.8-2.0) and shellfish (0.4%, 0.3-0.6). The point prevalence of food challenge-verified allergy were as follows: cow's milk (0.3%, 0.1-0.5), egg (0.8%, 0.5-1.2), wheat (0.1%, 0.01-0.2), soy (0.3%, 0.1-0.4), peanut (0.1%, 0.0-0.2), tree nuts (0.04%, 0.02-0.1), fish (0.02%, 0.0-0.1) and shellfish (0.1%, 0.0-0.2). With some exceptions, the prevalence of allergy to common foods did not substantially change during the last decade; variations by European regions were observed.
40.	Spolidoro, G. C. I., et al. (författare) Prevalence of tree nut allergy in Europe: A systematic review and meta-analysis 2024 Ingår i: Allergy. - 0105-4538 .- 1398-9995. ; 79:2, s. 302-323 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract In 2014, the European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (EAACI) published the first systematic review that summarized the prevalence of food allergy (FA) and food sensitization in Europe for studies published 2000-2012. However, only summary estimates for tree nut allergy (TNA) were feasible in that work. In the current update of that systematic review, we summarized the prevalence of tree nut allergy/sensitization to individual tree nuts. Six databases were searched for relevant papers published 2012-2021 and 17 eligible studies were added to the 15 studies already identified between 2000 and 2012, giving a total of 32 studies. Of the investigated tree nuts, meta-analysis was possible for hazelnut, walnut, almond, and in few cases, for cashew, and Brazil nut. The lifetime self-reported prevalence was 0.8% (95% CI 0.5-1.1) for hazelnut and 0.4% (0.2-0.9) for walnut. The point self-reported prevalence was 4.0% (2.9-5.2) for hazelnut, 3.4% (2.0-4.9) for Brazil nut, 2.0% (1.1-2.9) for almond, and 1.8% (1.1-2.5) for walnut. Point prevalence of food challenge-confirmed TNA was 0.04% (0.0-0.1) for hazelnut and 0.02% (0.01-0.1) for walnut. Due to paucity of data, we could not identify any meaningful and consistent differences across age groups and European regions.
41.	Wilhelm, S, et al. (författare) Initial treatment with duloxetine or pregabaline in patients with painful diabetic neuropathy. Data from the randomised, double-blind, parallel-group COMBO-DN Study 2012 Ingår i: DIABETOLOGIA. - 0012-186X. ; 55, s. S25-S26 Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
42.	Zewdie, Beyene, 1983-, et al. (författare) Genetic composition and diversity of Arabica coffee in the crop’s centre of origin and its impact on four major fungal diseases 2023 Ingår i: Molecular Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0962-1083 .- 1365-294X. ; 32:10, s. 2484-2503 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Conventional wisdom states that genetic variation reduces disease levels in plant populations. Nevertheless, crop species have been subject to a gradual loss of genetic variation through selection for specific traits during breeding, thereby increasing their vulnerability to biotic stresses such as pathogens. We explored how genetic variation in Arabica coffee sites in southwestern Ethiopia was related to the incidence of four major fungal diseases. Sixty sites were selected along a gradient of management intensity, ranging from nearly wild to intensively managed coffee stands. We used genotyping-by-sequencing of pooled leaf samples (pool-GBS) derived from 16 individual coffee shrubs in each of the 60 sites to assess the variation in genetic composition (multivariate: reference allele frequency) and genetic diversity (univariate: mean expected heterozygosity) between sites. We found that genetic composition had a clear spatial pattern and that genetic diversity was higher in less managed sites. The incidence of the four fungal diseases was related to the genetic composition of the coffee stands, but in a specific way for each disease. In contrast, genetic diversity was only related to the within-site variation of coffee berry disease, but not to the mean incidence of any of the four diseases across sites. Given that fungal diseases are major challenges of Arabica coffee in its native range, our findings that genetic composition of coffee sites impacted the major fungal diseases may serve as baseline information to study the molecular basis of disease resistance in coffee. Overall, our study illustrates the need to consider both host genetic composition and genetic diversity when investigating the genetic basis for variation in disease levels.

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