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- Vautard, R., et al.
(författare)
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Skill and uncertainty of a regional air quality model ensemble
- 2009
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 1352-2310. ; 43:31, s. 4822-4832
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recently several regional air quality projects were carried out to support the negotiation under the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme by predicting the impact of emission control policies with an ensemble of models. Within these projects, CITYDELTA and EURODELTA, the fate of air quality at the scale of European cities or that of the European continent was studied using several models. In this article we focus on the results of EURODELTA. The predictive skill of the ensemble of models is described for ozone, nitrogen dioxide and secondary inorganic compounds, and the uncertainty in air quality modelling is examined through the model ensemble spread of concentrations. For ozone daily maxima the ensemble spread origin differs from one region to another. In the neighbourhood of cities or in mountainous areas the spread of predicted values does not span the range of observed data, due to poorly resolved emissions or complex-terrain meteorology. By contrast in Atlantic and North Sea coastal areas the spread of predicted values is found to be larger than the observations. This is attributed to large differences in the boundary conditions used in the different models. For NO2 daily averages the ensemble spread is generally too small compared with observations. This is because models miss highest values occurring in stagnant meteorology in stable boundary layers near cities. For secondary particulate matter compounds the simulated concentration spread is more balanced, observations falling nearly equiprobably within the ensemble, and the spread originates both from meteorology and aerosol chemistry and thermodynamics. © 2008.
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| 2. |
- Schaap, M., et al.
(författare)
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Performance of European chemistry transport models as function of horizontal resolution
- 2015
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-2844 .- 1352-2310. ; 112, s. 90-105
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Air pollution causes adverse effects on human health as well as ecosystems and crop yield and also has an impact on climate change trough short-lived climate forcers. To design mitigation strategies for air pollution, 3D Chemistry Transport Models (CTMs) have been developed to support the decision process. Increases in model resolution may provide more accurate and detailed information, but will cubically increase computational costs and pose additional challenges concerning high resolution input data. The motivation for the present study was therefore to explore the impact of using finer horizontal grid resolution for policy support applications of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) model within the Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) convention. The goal was to determine the "optimum resolution" at which additional computational efforts do not provide increased model performance using presently available input data. Five regional CTMs performed four runs for 2009 over Europe at different horizontal resolutions. The models' responses to an increase in resolution are broadly consistent for all models. The largest response was found for NO2 followed by PM10 and O-3. Model resolution does not impact model performance for rural background conditions. However, increasing model resolution improves the model performance at stations in and near large conglomerations. The statistical evaluation showed that the increased resolution better reproduces the spatial gradients in pollution regimes, but does not help to improve significantly the model performance for reproducing observed temporal variability. This study clearly shows that increasing model resolution is advantageous, and that leaving a resolution of 50 km in favour of a resolution between 10 and 20 km is practical and worthwhile. As about 70% of the model response to grid resolution is determined by the difference in the spatial emission distribution, improved emission allocation procedures at high spatial and temporal resolution are a crucial factor for further model resolution improvements. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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