| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Gisladottir, Johanna, 1989-
(författare)
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A systems thinking approach to corruption and natural resources in the context of sustainability
- 2022
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- With growing awareness of the current climate crisis, it has become better recognized that natural resource management has global as well as local implications. Discourse on the importance of sustainability has followed. Natural resource sectors have been known as areas prone to corruption risks due to the usually high revenues involved. Despite the absence of a universally agreed upon definition, it is in general recognized that corruption undermines social and economic development and can impede sustainable resource management. This research sets out to explore the dynamics contributing to corruption risks in natural resource sectors, with an emphasis on renewable resources, and how such risks can be addressed. To shed light on the research question, a qualitative case study approach was chosen, comparing fisheries in Iceland, arable soils in Ukraine and forestry in Romania. A total of 40 semi-structured interviews were conducted with various stakeholders recruited through snowball sampling. The interviews were coded and then analysed by generating causal loop diagrams, a qualitative mapping approach in the field of system dynamics. The main results from this study suggest that the resource sectors under study all transformed towards economies of scale, facilitating the consolidation of large vertically integrated companies with increased economic efficiency demand. The resulting inequality between large and smaller actors in the sectors seems to increase perceived risk of both corruption and unsustainable management practices in all our cases. Public institutions´ capacity and capabilities to monitor resource sectors need adequate resources, else corruption risks can increase because of perceived lack of monitoring. To alleviate corruption risks, transparency in resource management can strengthen accountability and promote sustainability. However, focus on transparency as a policy tool can be misplaced in instances where higher-level intervention points are needed to ensure sustainable resource management, as solutions are context dependent.
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| 3. |
- Gisladottir, Johanna, 1989-, et al.
(författare)
-
Approaching the study of corruption and natural resources through qualitative system dynamics
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The complexity and scale of the challenges posed by the climate crisis demand knowledge sharing and collaboration between a variety of academic disciplines to address them. In that regard, the way in which natural resources are used matters, and more information is needed on which regulatory framework and policy instruments foster their sustainable management. There is consensus that corruption can seriously obstruct social, economic, and political development. However, research on corruption has tended to be fragmented and investigating the concept itself is a challenging endeavour. Due to the complexity of corruption as a research subject, we argue that in seeking to explore and understand corruption, researchers would benefit from using a framework that facilitates an interdisciplinary and process-oriented approach. This paper suggests that the method of system dynamics can be applied to advance the academic discourse on corruption in relation to natural resources, since it seeks to improve understanding and learning in complex systems in an illustrative manner. More specifically, it offers a platform to explore feedback processes between the different social, economic, and ecological dimensions which ultimately produce undesirable behaviour or patterns. The paper outlines how corruption has been approached previously in the academic discourse. It then offers a tool to bridge knowledge from different fields on natural resources, in a way that allows for research from different fields to be integrated and thus gaps better identified. A process-oriented approach to exploring corruption in natural resource systems based on qualitative system dynamics methods can inform new questions and thus improve understanding about the conditions under which corruption occurs or corrupt behaviour thrives.
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| 4. |
- Gisladottir, Johanna, et al.
(författare)
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Approaching the Study of Corruption and Natural Resources through Qualitative System Dynamics
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Resources. - : MDPI AG. - 2079-9276. ; 11:8
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The complexity and scale of the challenges posed by the climate crisis demand knowledge sharing and collaboration between a variety of academic disciplines to address them. In that regard, the way in which natural resources are used matters, and more information is needed on which regulatory framework and policy instruments foster their sustainable management. There is consensus that corruption can seriously obstruct social, economic, and political development. However, research on corruption has tended to be fragmented and investigating the concept itself is a challenging endeavor. Due to the complexity of corruption as a research subject, we argue that in seeking to explore and understand corruption, researchers would benefit from using a framework that facilitates an interdisciplinary and process-oriented approach. This paper suggests that the method of system dynamics can be applied to advance the academic discourse on corruption in relation to natural resources, since it seeks to improve understanding and learning in complex systems in an illustrative manner. More specifically, it offers a platform to explore feedback processes between the different social, economic, and ecological dimensions which ultimately produce undesirable behavior or patterns. The paper outlines how corruption has been approached previously in the academic discourse. It then offers a tool to bridge knowledge from different fields on natural resources, in a way that allows for research from different fields to be integrated, and thus gaps are better identified. A process-oriented approach to exploring corruption in natural resource systems based on qualitative system dynamics methods can inform new questions and thus improve understanding about the conditions under which corruption occurs or corrupt behavior thrives.
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| 5. |
- Gisladottir, Johanna, et al.
(författare)
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Corruption Risks in Renewable Resource Governance : Case Studies in Iceland and Romania
- 2020
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Ingår i: Politics and Governance. - : Cogitatio. - 2183-2463. ; 8:2, s. 167-179
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this research, we attempt to shed light on the question of where corruption risks in the governance of renewable resources are located and how they have been addressed in European countries that have different levels of corruption. A comparative case study design was chosen, looking into the fisheries sector in Iceland and the forestry sector in Romania. We conducted 25 semi-structured interviews with various stakeholders sampled through a snowball method. Qualitative coding and systems analysis were used to analyse the interviews. The results indicate that comprehensive and ambitious legislation does not necessarily translate into successful resource governance systems. In general, the institutions that were put in place to enforce and monitor the legal codes and regulations did not have the capacity to carry out their role. Additionally, interviewees were generally found to have a widespread perception of there being a corrupt relationship between politics and big companies operating in their sectors. Our findings suggest that when people hold such perceptions, it undermines anti-corruption policy efforts in the resource sectors, which can then impede sustainable resource management.
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| 6. |
- Gisladottir, Johanna, et al.
(författare)
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Economies of Scale and Perceived Corruption in Natural Resource Management : A Comparative Study between Ukraine, Romania, and Iceland
- 2021
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 13:13
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this paper is to enhance understanding of factors that undermine sustainable management of renewable resources by identifying and analyzing the main drivers and dynamics involved, with a focus on the role of corruption perceptions and its implications. To shed light on the research question, we chose to perform a comparative study of three different resource sectors in European countries that are ranked differently on the Corruption Perception Index by Transparency International, namely fisheries in Iceland, forestry in Romania, and arable soils in Ukraine. We conducted 40 in-depth semi-structured interviews with various stakeholders to explore assumptions on individual actions and behavior in the sectors. The interviews were analyzed using a qualitative coding procedure based on causal loop diagrams, a method from system dynamics. The results indicate that even though the cases are different, they share a similar outcome, in that privatization of the resource and consolidation of companies took place, along with perceived risk of both unsustainable resource management practices and corruption. Our findings suggest that the underlying similarities of the cases are that privatization occurred around the same time in early 1990s, when neoliberal economic ideology influentially held up the idea that private ownership meant better management. What followed was a transition to economies of scale that ultimately resulted in dominance of large vertically integrated companies in the sectors. The resulting inequalities between large and small actors in the renewable resource management systems serve to increase the risk for unsustainable management decisions as well as increase perceptions of corruption risks, especially amongst smaller actors in the sectors.
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| 7. |
- Gisladottir, Johanna, 1989-, et al.
(författare)
-
Transparency and leverage points for sustainable resource management
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The phrase ‘sunshine is the best disinfectant’ is commonly used to suggest that transparency can counter corruption and ensure accountability. In the policy world, several analytical tools have been developed to obtain information on what policy decision would bring about the biggest positive effect for the least amount of effort. And there is a tendency to view transparency as the silver bullet in that respect. This paper aims to shed light on how measures of transparency can serve as a leverage point for sustainable resource management. We begin by analysing the concept of transparency and then draw from Donella Meadow’s work on leverage points to analyse the transformative potential of increasing transparency towards sustainable resource management. We then demonstrate the use of this analytical approach by applying it to three case studies: resource management systems in Ukraine, Romania, and Iceland. The results suggest that transparency in resource management need to be accompanied with widely accepted standards and accountability mechanisms for transparency to serve as an effective leverage point. If those factors are neglected, credibility of transparency can be undermined. Prioritizing transparency as a policy intervention to alleviate corruption risks, in the absence of accountability mechanisms and clear rules might be misplaced, and deeper leverage points needed.
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| 8. |
- Gisladottir, Johanna, et al.
(författare)
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Transparency and Leverage Points for Sustainable Resource Management
- 2022
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 14:24
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The phrase ‘sunshine is the best disinfectant’ is commonly used to suggest that transparency can counter corruption and ensure accountability. In the policy world, several analytical tools have been developed to obtain information on what policy decision would bring about the biggest positive effect for the least amount of effort. There is a tendency to view transparency as the silver bullet in that respect. This paper aimed to shed light on how measures of transparency can serve as a leverage point for sustainable resource management. We begin by analysing the concept of transparency and then draw from Donella Meadows’ work on leverage points to analyse the transformative potential of increasing transparency towards sustainable resource management. We then demonstrate the use of this analytical approach by applying it to three case studies on resource management systems in Ukraine, Romania, and Iceland. The results suggested that transparency in resource management needs to be accompanied by widely accepted standards and accountability mechanisms for it to serve as an effective leverage point. If these factors are neglected, the credibility of transparency can be undermined. Prioritising transparency as a policy intervention to alleviate corruption risks, in the absence of accountability mechanisms and clear rules, might be misplaced, and require deeper leverage points.
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| 9. |
- Koca, Deniz, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling the global primary extraction, supply, price and depletion of the extractable geological resources using the COBALT model.
- 2015
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The global supply of cobalt was simulated by combining 3 different system dynamics models; BRONZE, PGM and STEEL. The present use of cobalt shows a low degree of recycling and systemic losses are significant. The reserves of cobalt are not very large (20-25 million ton extractable) as compared to metals like copper, zinc or iron, and after 2170 cobalt will have run out under a business-as-usual scenario. The present business-as-usual for cobalt use in society is in no way sustainable
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| 10. |
- Nedelciu, Claudiu Eduard, 1989-, et al.
(författare)
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From waste to resource : A systems dynamics and stakeholder analysis of phosphorus recycling from municipal wastewater in Europe
- 2019
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 48, s. 741-751
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recycling Phosphorus (P) from urban wastewater can secure part of domestic agricultural P supply and contribute to a circular P supply chain. In this paper, we use literature review, stakeholder interviews and analysis, and systems dynamics for the capital cities of Stockholm and Budapest as case studies. We find that political support is a prerequisite for developing the P recycling sector, and policy makers are the most influential stakeholders. P criticality is the main driver for political support. P externalities from mining to sludge disposal should be considered when evaluating P criticality and recycling profitability. We conclude with policy recommendations for the development of the P recycling sector, arguing for legally binding P recycling targets and prioritization of the safest technological solutions available. Our analysis identifies three policy action indicators and five policy interventions in the recycling system.
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| 11. |
- Nedelciu, Claudiu Eduard, 1989-
(författare)
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Global Phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Sustainability implications for the 21st century
- 2021
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Phosphorus is an essential yet irreplaceable macronutrient for agriculture and thus plays a key role in global food security. Most of the phosphate fertilizers are produced from phosphate rock, a finite mineral resource that is mined and processed at great environmental and social costs. Nonetheless, the present-day phosphorus supply chain transforms this valuable resource also into a major pollutant of water bodies. The research that is presented in this thesis investigated the sustainability challenges of the currently linear phosphorus supply chain and discussed their implications. The main methods used were literature and case study review, semi-structured interviews with stakeholders from the phosphorus sector, stakeholder analysis, systems analysis and system dynamics modelling. Five key messages emerged from this project.First, it is necessary to close the loop throughout the phosphorus supply chain instead of focusing only on end-of-pipeline solutions. Second, in terms of monitoring data, the global phosphorus supply chain is a black box. This poses serious challenges to designing robust policies in food security. Third, industrializing world regions where most of the population growth is expected to occur in the coming decades are increasingly vulnerable to phosphorus scarcity. Fourth, in a business-as-usual scenario, the global supply chain of phosphorus will produce significant amounts of toxic by-products, will have an increasingly negative impact on the climate and will deteriorate the quality of water bodies. Finally, implementing low-input sustainable farming systems, such as agroecology, was shown to have the potentially largest impact in reducing P requirement and in decreasing the negative socio-environmental impacts of the global P supply chain.
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| 12. |
- Nedelciu, Claudiu Eduard, 1989-, et al.
(författare)
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Opening access to the black box : The need for reporting on the global phosphorus supply chain
- 2020
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 49, s. 881-891
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Phosphorus (P) is an essential macronutrient in agriculture; however, lack of reporting makes its supply chain a black box. By using literature synthesis on the P challenge, we identify four areas where the reporting process is problematic: P reserves and resources; P losses along the supply chain; P externalities; and access to data. We find that in these areas, the reporting system is inconsistent, inaccurate, incomplete, fragmented and non-transparent. We use systems analysis to discuss implications of reporting on the sustainability of the P supply chain. We find that reporting is essential for the achievement of global P governance and the human right to adequate food. It can also inform decision makers and other impacted stakeholders on policies on agriculture, food security, pollution and international conflict. An improved P reporting process also allows a better evaluation of global sustainability commitments such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
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| 13. |
- Nedelciu, Claudiu Eduard, et al.
(författare)
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Regional scenarios for inorganic phosphate requirement decrease in industrializing regions to 2050
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The current pandemic has highlighted the vulnerabilities of our food production system. An overwhelming number of studies and reports warn that in a business-as-usual scenario, the global food system will be increasingly challenged to secure food for a growing population. In its current configuration, the food system reinforces social and economic inequalities, and negatively impacts the environment. At the same time, farmers are increasingly dependent on imported agricultural inputs, such as phosphate fertilizers, which makes them vulnerable to major supply disruptions or price spikes. In this study, we used system dynamics modelling to assess several scenarios for decreased regional inorganic phosphate requirement to 2050 in industrializing regions with a growing population. Four scenarios illustrate the policy options of reducing phosphorous demand through i) recycling of phosphorus (P) from municipal wastewater, ii) food loss reduction, iii) a shift to agroecological farming practices; and iv) a combination of the three measures. We found that food loss reduction has the lowest potential in reducing P requirement, while the implementation of agroecological farming practices results in significant decreases in P requirement. East and South East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa were two regions where scenarios indicated a decrease or a near flattening of P requirement to 2050 compared to 2020. In North Africa and Western Asia, Southern Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, scenario simulations show increases in P requirement, albeit at much lower rates than in a business-as-usual case.
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala, et al.
(författare)
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Substitution of metals in times of potential supply limitations: What are the mitigation options and limitations?
- 2015
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global production rates of metals vary from iron at 1.4 billion ton per year to platinum with 200 ton per year. Resource scarcity starts to manifest itself in rising prices and supply limitations, and metal substitution has been a major argument among economists when putting considerations of resource scarcity aside. Here we investigate the potential limits to metal substitution. Present consumption, recycling and irreversible loss rates, as well as the metal balances and properties are examined. Our findings suggest that the major limitations and issues to substitution are: (1) Physical limitations in terms of metal available; it can only take place by a more abundant metal taking partly the place of a metal produced in smaller amounts; (2) Functional limitations based of differences in physical and chemical properties; and (3) By considering substitution options often more energy is needded and larger CO2 emissions occur. Substitution of metals is therefore not going to take the threat of scarcity away; it can only delay us in adapting to the level of sustainable use. The longer we wait, the more we risk squandering resources before we properly conserve our resources from becoming scarce
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| 17. |
- Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala, et al.
(författare)
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Time of scarcity horizons for technology metals, precious metals, base metals, superalloy metals, battery technology metals and infrastructure materials.
- 2017
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Ingår i: Accelerating the Resource Revolution - WRF 2017 Meeting Report : Geneva, October 24 – 25, 2017 - Geneva, October 24 – 25, 2017. - 9783906177182
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We have built a system dynamics model, WORLD6, that takes into account population, energy extraction, production and need, aspects social behaviour, material and metals recycling and important links to the economy. The model is ground-truthed by comparing with actual supply per person from 1900 till 2015 and run until 2400. Primary scarcity metrics are supply per person and year and stock-in-use per person. Results show that technology metals (antimony, bismuth, selenium, indium, gallium and germanium) will all peak in production before 2100. Precious metals will peak in production earlier, or before 2050. The base metals (copper, zinc) will have a roughly stable supply from 2050 till 2300, whereas the production of lead will be approximately the same from 1960 till 2400 and that of nickel will peak before 2050. The superalloy metals (molybdenum, niobium) will have a stable supply from around 2050 till 2400, but cobalt will be stable from 2100 till 2300 and then decline. The battery metal lithium will peak in production 2010, cobalt will be stable (as stated above) and rare earth´s will rise in use, particularly after 2100. When considering service capital per person (concrete, iron, aluminium, copper) the model predicts steady rise throughout the 21st century, with stabilization in the 22nd century. Our dynamic WORLD6 modelling results give clear indications that for the most important metals that are used in modern technology and in societal infrastructure there are limits and therefore careful circular economy programmes are necessary at the level of every nation so that metals do not become the centre of future conflicts.
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| 18. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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A System Dynamics Assessment of the Supply of Molybdenum and Rhenium Used for Super-alloys and Specialty Steels, Using the WORLD6 Model
- 2018
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Ingår i: BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2366-0120 .- 2366-0112. ; 3:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The extraction, supply, market price and recycling of the metals molybdenum and rhenium were modelled using an integrated system dynamics model. The resource estimates made here resulted in significantly larger estimates than earlier studies for molybdenum. Present molybdenum resources are about 75–80 million ton and about 7 million ton has been mined to date. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR) for molybdenum are about 65 million in primary resources and about 45 million ton in secondary sources, a total of about 111 million ton, and after considering technical extractability, evaluating several hundred different geological deposits, the extractable amount is about 90 million ton. For rhenium, URR is about 21,000 ton contained in mostly in molybdenum and copper, but some come from nickel, wolfram and platinum group metal ores. The model outputs show that molybdenum and rhenium are finite resources, and that they may become exhausted unless the degree of recycling will be significantly improved. Peak production is estimated to take place in 2060 for molybdenum and rhenium, with peak in stocks-in-use around 2090. The molybdenum and rhenium recycling rates are generally low. Both market intervention mechanisms and governance incentives should be used to increase recycling. The metal extraction and ore grades were modelled with good success when tested against observed data. The model predicts a significant decline in molybdenum supply after 2100 under the present demand combined with the present regime of recycling. The supply situation for rhenium is dependent on the situation applicable for molybdenum ore availability and rhenium recycling rate.
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| 19. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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Aluminium for the future: Modelling the global production, market supply, demand, price and long term development of the global reserves
- 2015
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Ingår i: Resources, Conservation & Recycling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-3449. ; 103:103, s. 139-154
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The reserves, production from mines, supply of aluminium to society and mass fluxes of aluminium in society was assessed using an integrated systems dynamics model (ALUMINIUM) in order to reconstruct the past and investigate potential future scenarios. The investigations for input data show that the mine- able aluminium reserves are large, but finite. We get an average value for the ultimately recoverable reserve to be about 20–25 billion ton aluminium. The production of aluminium at present is 50 million ton per year. Continuing business-as-usual consumption with sustained global population growth above 7 billion people combined with a decline in cheap fossil fuels, aluminium may in the long perspective be a more expensive product than today. Should the event of a need for substituting a significant part of copper, iron, steel and stainless steel with aluminium arise, the time to scarcity for aluminium could become an issue within the next four decades. Ultimately, continuation of the aluminium production may in the future become limited by access to energy. Whereas aluminium primary production may go through a peak in the next decades, supply to society will not reach a peak before the end of the century, because of recycling from the stock in society. The model suggests that the supply level will decline to 2014 level sometime around 2250, or 230 years into the future.
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| 20. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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An assessment of metal supply sustainability as an input to policy: security of supply extraction rates, stocks-in-use, recycling, and risk of scarcity
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-6526. ; 140, s. 359-372
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The integrated model WORLD and Hubbert's model were used for assessment of future supply for different metals: iron, nickel, manganese, chromium, molybdenum, tantalum, niobium, rhenium, zir- conium, tungsten, cobalt, copper, zinc, lead, aluminium and the technology metals derived from copper ezinc mining (tellurium, selenium, gallium, indium, antimony, bismuth, tin, germanium, selenium). The connections between their productions were mapped. The literature was reviewed for best estimates of total recoverable amounts, and best estimates were made, considering extraction costs and extractability. Peak years were determined for all the metals studied. Most metals seem to reach peak production during the next 4 decades, suggesting a risk for shortages in the near future. When supplies from mines dwindle, measures such as recycling from society's stock, substitutions to other materials than metals when this is possible, and stopped dissipative uses, will become important mitigation tools, calling for reorganization of resource policies world-wide. Present resource policies at all levels (regional, national, international) are to a large degree inadequate and need thorough review. The relevance of the Hubbert's model as an assessment tool was done. It is useful for all metals taken from independent ore deposits, whereas the method appears to be less suited for extraction of dependent metals unless the curve is derived from the Hubbert's model applied on the parent source. In such times, strategic thinking and strategic leadership based in systems thinking will be required.
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| 21. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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Challenging the planetary boundaries II: Assessing the sustainable global population and phosphate supply, using a systems dynamics assessment model
- 2011
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Ingår i: Applied Geochemistry. - : Elsevier BV. - 0883-2927. ; 26:Suppl., s. 307-310
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A systems dynamics model was developed to assess the planetary boundary for P supply in relation to use by human society. It is concluded that present day use rates and poor recycling rates of P are unsustainable at timescales beyond 100+ a. The predictions made suggest that P will become a scarce and expensive material in the future. The study shows clearly that market mechanisms alone will not be able to secure an efficient use before a large part of the resource will have been allowed to dissipate into the natural environment. It is suggested that population size management and effective recycling measures must be planned long term to avoid unpleasant consequences of hunger and necessary corrections imposed on society by mass balance and thermodynamics. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 22. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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Defining a free market: drivers of unsustainability as illustrated with an example of shrimp farming in the mangrove forest in South East Asia
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-6526. ; 140:1, s. 299-311
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We apply causal loop diagrams (CLD) to picture how complex societal scenarios can be understood in terms of interdependent drivers and mechanisms between actors from the public and private sectors respectively. And we show how un-sustainable scenarios can be understood in terms of insufficient balancing feed-back in the system. We apply the methodology to picture such imbalances as funda- mental drivers behind the tragedy of the commons. And we apply it to go deeper into a specific business example in this context, a complex case of resource exploitation in Far East Asia. The CLD analyses inform a discussion on the interplay between societies on the one hand, represented by the Government and its legislature, and the private sector with its companies, consumers and market on the other. Our study confirms that unsustainability can only be understood and addressed at the systemic level, encom- passing both natural and social systems, where also the virtual and emergent systems of modern civi- lization are considered. The results show that a market economy can only be sustainable as well as really free, when embedded in a systemic and balanced interplay between the actors on the arena. The pro- vision of the market arena with well thought-through rules of the game, offered by a well-functioning democratic society, is needed. The challenge for leaders in business and society is to be able to grasp the causalities of the whole system, and let this guide and shape sustainable goals as well as leadership and management in coherence with such goals.
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| 23. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating critical extraction rates for the main metals for a sustainable society within the planetary limits
- 2015
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The critical rates of extraction of some metals was explored using a methodology based on the thinking behind critical loads for sulphur and nitrogen deposition developed in Europe 1990-2010. With a long term sustainability view in mind, critical rates based on 5,000 and 10,000 years were estimated and found to widely exceed the present extraction rates. Huge advances in recycling, as well as a significant contraction of metal demand would be required to reach no exceedence of the critical rates.
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| 24. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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Integrated Modelling of the Global Cobalt Extraction, Supply, Price and Depletion of Extractable Resources Using the WORLD6 Model
- 2017
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Ingår i: BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2366-0120 .- 2366-0112. ; 2:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The global cobalt cycle in society was modelled using an integrated systems dynamics model, WORLD6, integrating several earlier system dynamics models developed by the authors. The COBALT sub-model was used to assess the long-term sufficiency of the available extractable cobalt and address the effect of different degrees of recycling on cobalt supply. The extraction of cobalt is mostly dependent on the extraction of copper, nickel and platinum group metals. The ultimately recoverable resources estimate was 32 million ton on land and 34 million ton on the ocean floors, a total of 66 million ton, significantly larger than earlier estimates. It is very uncertain how much of the cobalt, detected in ocean floor deposits, is extractable. The present use of cobalt by society is diverse and about half the total cobalt production to the market is in the form of metallic cobalt. The simulations show that cobalt extraction is predicted to reach a peak in the years 2025–2030 and that the supply will reach a peak level in 2040–2050. Three different global population scenarios were used (high, middle, low). We predict that the supply of cobalt will decline slowly with about 3–5% per year after 2050. The present use of cobalt in chemicals, colours, rechargeable batteries and super-alloys shows a low degree of recycling and the systemic losses are significant. After 2170, cobalt will have run out under business-as-usual scenario. The present business-as-usual cobalt use in society is not sustainable. Too much cobalt is lost if only market mechanisms are expected to improve recycling, and unnecessary cobalt is wasted if no policy actions are taken. Increased recycling and better conservation will be able to improve the supply situation, but this will need active policy participation beyond what market mechanisms can do alone. To conserve cobalt for coming generations, present policies must be changed within the next few decades. The sooner policies change, the better for future generations
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| 25. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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Investigating the sustainability of the global silver supply, reserves, stocks in society and market price using different approaches
- 2014
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Ingår i: Resources, Conservation & Recycling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-3449. ; 83, s. 121-140
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The authors have collected data for the silver market, shedding light on market size, stocks in society and silver flows in society. The world supply from mining, depletion of the remaining reserves, reducing ore grades, market price and turnover of silver was simulated using the SILVER model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, populations dynamics, use in society and waste and recycling into an integrated system. At the same time the degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using different methods such as: 1: burn-off rates, 2: peak discovery early warning, 3: Hubbert's production model, and 4: System dynamic modelling. The Hubbert's model was run for the period of 6000 BC-3000 AD, the SILVER system dynamics model was run for the time range 1840-2340. We have estimated that the ultimately recoverable reserves of silver are in the range 2.7-3.1 million tonne silver at present, of which approximately 1.35-1.46 million tonne have already been mined. The timing estimate range for peak silver production is narrow, in the range 2027-2038, with the best estimate in 2034. By 2240, all silver mines will be nearly empty and exhausted. The outputs from all models converge to emphasize the importance of consistent recycling and the avoidance of irreversible losses to make society more sustainable with respect to silver market supply. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 26. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling the copper, zinc and lead mining rates and co-extraction of dependent metals, supply, price and extractable amounts using the BRONZE model
- 2015
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The total resources form copper, zinc and lead was estimated from a reworking of the literature. The data was used as input to the integrated systems dynamics model BRONZE, and used to estimate the global supply of these metals and the by-products antimony, indium, germanium, tellurium, cadmium, bismuth and selenium. The runs show that copper, zinc and lead go through peak production around 2050 and declines as the resources run out some time after 2100, and with them the metals produced as by products become unavailable.
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| 27. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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Peak Metals, Minerals, Energy, Wealth, Food and Population: Urgent Policy Considerations for a Sustainable Society
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering. - 1934-8932. ; :5, s. 499-533
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Several strategic metals, elements and energy resources are about to run into scarcity in the near future under the present paradigm of use. A global systems model has been developed (WORLD) to assess the issue of scarcity and its implications for society. We show that scarcity may lead to “peak wealth”, “peak population”, “peak waste” and “peak civilization”, unless urgent counter-measures are systematically undertaken. Materials that underpin modern society may become unavailable for global mass production of goods. The material volumes that can be supplied from fossil reserves will be reduced with respect to today and resources will go up in price. The future resource supply is unsustainable without comprehensive recycling. The creation of wealth from conversion of resources and work, as well as the current extensive borrowing from the future, cause concerns that peaking energy and materials production may lead to “peak wealth” and the end of the golden age we live in. Our policy recommendations are that governments must take this issue seriously and must immediately start preparing legislations to close material cycles, optimize energy use and minimize irreversible material losses. Research efforts need to be based on systems thinking and a concerted effort is needed.
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| 28. |
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| 29. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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The WORLD model: Peak metals, minerals, energy, wealth, food and population
- 2012
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. - 9781935056096 ; , s. 102-102
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper we show that several metals, elements and energy resources are about to run into scarcity within the next decades, and most elements within some centuries. A new global systems model was assembled to analyse this scarcity as a continuation of the model used in the Limits-to-Growth World3 model. We show that this scarcity will lead to “peak wealth”, “peak population”, “peak costs”, “peak junk”, “peak problems” and possibly “peak civilization”, unless some urgent measures are systematically taken throughout the world. Scarcity implies that materials that underpin modern society will largely be unavailable for global mass production of goods. The material volumes that can be supplied from fossil reserves will be reduced with respect to today and all materials will go up sharply in price. The future resource supply is thus unsustainable as long as resource use continues as today. The creation of money from conversion of resources and work, as well as the current extensive borrowing from the future, cause concerns that peak oil and peak materials may lead to “peak wealth” and the end of the golden age we currently have for developed nations. Our policy recommendations are that governments must take this issue seriously and immediately start preparing for legislations that can close material cycles, optimize energy use and minimize all types of irreversible material losses as soon as possible. Forceful programs promoting extensive recycling are needed as well as special care in closing loops and reducing irreversible losses. Research efforts in this field needs to be based on systems thinking and a concerted effort is needed globally.
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| 30. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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The WORLD6 Integrated System Dynamics Model: Examples of Results from Simulations
- 2019
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Ingår i: Progress Towards the Resource Revolution. - 9783952140987 ; , s. 68-76
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The WORLD6 model is a fully integrated dynamic world systems model. It includes a biophysical global economic model, based on first principles of physics and thermodynamics, forcing it to be fully consistent with the underlying mass- and energy balances. The WORLD6 model first creates value from extraction of natural resources, input of human labour, the efficiency effect of mechanization and automation, the effect of innovation and their use in manufacturing of goods and services, and the secondly does monetization through market mechanisms and debt financing. The model includes 7 different capital stocks for: (1) industrial resource extraction, (2) industrial manufacture, (3) social service capital, (4) agricultural capital for land use and food production, (5) military capital, (6) speculative capital tied up in derivatives, real estate, consumer credits, (7) criminal or illegal capital. There are 3 different debt pools; (1) general, (2) speculative and (3) pensions. These are all linked through a number of feedbacks in the system to resource extraction, energy production, population dynamics, food production and phosphorus extraction, manufacture of consumer goods and services. The WORLD6 model connects to environmental pollution with feedbacks and inputs to human health and climate change inside the model. The model includes money flows, stocks as well as debt dynamics and how this is connected to the capital base and the governance. The WORLD6 model has earlier been extensively tested on natural resource extraction rates, resource ore grades, supply volumes and market price for resources with very good success. The WORLD6 model system was tested in its economic aspects against observed GDP for the period 1850 to 2015 and GDP per capita, commodity prices, extraction rates and resource supply rates with good success. These results were obtained from first principles only and without calibrating the model to any type of data time-series.
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| 31. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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The WORLD6 model for evaluation of natural resource sustainability considering metals, materials, energy, population and food.
- 2017
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Ingår i: Accelerating the Resource Revolution : WRF 2017 Meeting Report, Geneva, October 24 – 25, 2017 - WRF 2017 Meeting Report, Geneva, October 24 – 25, 2017. - 9783906177182
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A new model; WORLD6 was developed. WORLD6 differs from the earlier system dynamics world models in several aspects. Several modules link the economy, materials, metals, energy, population and politics in a dynamic system. The present version is a result of a dismantling of the World3 model (Meadows et al., 1972, 1992, 2004) with an extension and substitution of its resource module and economy module. The WORLD6 model has several sub-modules at present which are all dynamically linked: 1. Population and food module: The module contains the original World3 model from 1972 model and used again in 1992 and 2004. This was enhanced with a new module for phosphate rock extraction, fertilizer production and an agricultural unit of WORLD6. 2. Materials and metals module a. Materials: Phosphorus, cement, sand, gravel and cut stone. b. Metals: Copper, zinc, lead, silver, gold, Iron, chromium, manganese, nickel, aluminium, stainless steel, antimony, bismuth, cobalt, gallium, germanium, indium, cadmium, tellurium, selenium, lithium, platinum, palladium, rhodium, molybdenum, rhenium, niobium, tantalum, tin, wolfram (tungsten), titanium, zirconium, hafnium and rare earth metals.3. Economy module: The model has a new simplified global economy module, considering the major actors like households, businesses, and government. Disposable funds, investments and market price for every resource is simulated endogenously in the model for every resource: metals, materials, food and commodities. 4. Energy module: An energy model including the extraction of fossil fuels. Different types of oil, gas, and coal as well as the extraction dynamics and reprocessing of uranium and thorium, used in conventional and breeder reactor technologies, technological energy harvests and renewable energy. 5. Climate and biosphere module: A simplified CLIMATE change module, converting CO2 emissions to CO2 in the atmosphere, with increase in temperature and sea level rise.
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| 32. |
- Sverdrup, Harald U., et al.
(författare)
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On modelling the global copper mining rates, market supply, copper price and the end of copper reserves
- 2014
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Ingår i: Resources, Conservation & Recycling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-3449. ; 87, s. 158-174
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The world supply and turnover of copper was modelled using simple empirical estimates and a COPPER systems dynamics model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, population dynamics, use in society and waste as well as recycling, into a whole world system. The degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using four different methods including (1) burn-off rates, (2) peak discovery early warning, (3) Hubbert's production model, and (4) COPPER, a system dynamics model. The ultimately recoverable reserves (URR) have been estimated using different sources that converge around 2800 million tonne, where about 800 million tonne have already been mined, and 2000 million tonne remain. The different methods independently suggest peak copper mine production in the near future. The model was run for a longer period to cover all systems dynamics and delays. The peak production estimates are in a narrow window in time, from 2031 to 2042, with the best model estimate in 2034, or 21 years from the date of writing. In a longer perspective, taking into account price and recycling, the supply of copper to society is estimated to run out sometime after 2400. The outputs from all models put focus on the importance of copper recycling so that society can become more sustainable with respect to copper supply. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 33. |
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