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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 4. |
- Svensson, Ulrika S H, et al.
(författare)
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Artemisinin induces omeprazole metabolism in human beings
- 1998
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Ingår i: Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics. - 0009-9236 .- 1532-6535. ; 64, s. 160-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: This study investigated whether time-dependent artemisinin pharmacokinetics correlated to CYP3A4 or CYP2C19 activity in vivo. Methods: Artemisinin (two oral doses per day of 250 mg) was given to nine healthy Vietnamese subjects for 7 days (day 1 to day 7), Single 20 mg doses of omeprazole were given orally on day -7, day 1, and day 7, Single doses of artemisinin and omeprazole were given in combination on day 14 after a 6-day washout period. The pharmacokinetics of artemisinin, omeprazole, hydroxyomeprazole, and omeprazole sulfone were evaluated on days -7, 1, 7, and 14, On the same days urine was collected for the determination of 6 beta-hydroxycortisol and cortisol excretion. Results: Areas under plasma concentration-time curves (AUC) for artemisinin and omeprazole decreased on day 7 to 20% (95% confidence intervals, 13%, 28%) and 35% (25%, 46%), respectively, compared with values on day 1, AUC ratios for hydroxyomeprazole/omeprazole increased 2.2-fold (1,7, 2.7) on day 7 compared with values on day 1, Al values were normalized at day 14, There were no significant changes in the omeprazole sulfone/omeprazole ratio or in the 6 beta-hydroxycortisol/cortisol ratio between the study days. In one subject found to have poor CYP2C19 metabolization, the elimination of omeprazole increased after artemisinin exposure, with no change in the hydroxyomeprazole/omeprazole AUC ratio. Conclusion: Artemisinin did not alter CYP3A4 activity, whereas an increase in CYP2C19 activity was observed. The increased elimination of omeprazole in both poor and extensive CYP2C19 metabolizers suggests artemisinin induces both CYP2C19 and another enzyme.
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| 6. |
- Ngo, Son Tung, et al.
(författare)
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Distal Hydrophobic Loop Modulates the Copper Active Site and Reaction of AA13 Polysaccharide Monooxygenases
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Physical Chemistry B. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 1520-6106 .- 1520-5207. ; 126:39, s. 7567-7578
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Polysaccharide monooxygenases (PMOs) use a type-2 copper center to activate O2 for the selective hydroxylation of one of the two C-H bonds of glycosidic linkages. Our electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) analysis and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations suggest the unprecedented dynamic roles of the loop containing the residue G89 (G89 loop) on the active site structure and reaction cycle of starch-active PMOs (AA13 PMOs). In the Cu(II) state, the G89 loop could switch between an open and closed conformation, which is associated with the binding and dissociation of an aqueous ligand in the distal site, respectively. The conformation of the G89 loop influences the positioning of the copper center on the preferred substrate of AA13 PMOs. The dissociation of the distal ligand results in the bending of the T-shaped core of the Cu(II) active site, which could help facilitate its reduction to the active Cu(I) state. In the Cu(I) state, the G89 loop is in the closed conformation with a confined copper center, which could allow for efficient O2 binding. In addition, the G89 loop remains in the closed conformation in the Cu(II)-superoxo intermediate, which could prevent off-pathway superoxide release via exchange with the distal aqueous ligand. Finally, at the end of the reaction cycle, aqueous ligand binding to the distal site could switch the G89 loop to the open conformation and facilitate product release.
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| 8. |
- von Seidlein, Lorenz, et al.
(författare)
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The impact of targeted malaria elimination with mass drug administrations on falciparum malaria in Southeast Asia: A cluster randomised trial
- 2019
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Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE. - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 16:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The emergence and spread of multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) threatens global malaria elimination efforts. Mass drug administration (MDA), the presumptive antimalarial treatment of an entire population to clear the subclinical parasite reservoir, is a strategy to accelerate malaria elimination. We report a cluster randomised trial to assess the effectiveness of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) MDA in reducing falciparum malaria incidence and prevalence in 16 remote village populations in Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, where artemisinin resistance is prevalent. Methods and findings After establishing vector control and community-based case management and following intensive community engagement, we used restricted randomisation within village pairs to select 8 villages to receive early DP MDA and 8 villages as controls for 12 months, after which the control villages received deferred DP MDA. The MDA comprised 3 monthly rounds of 3 daily doses of DP and, except in Cambodia, a single low dose of primaquine. We conducted exhaustive cross-sectional surveys of the entire population of each village at quarterly intervals using ultrasensitive quantitative PCR to detect Plasmodium infections. The study was conducted between May 2013 and July 2017. The investigators randomised 16 villages that had a total of 8,445 residents at the start of the study. Of these 8,445 residents, 4,135 (49%) residents living in 8 villages, plus an additional 288 newcomers to the villages, were randomised to receive early MDA; 3,790 out of the 4,423 (86%) participated in at least 1 MDA round, and 2,520 out of the 4,423 (57%) participated in all 3 rounds. The primary outcome, P. falciparum prevalence by month 3 (M3), fell by 92% (from 5.1% [171/3,340] to 0.4% [12/2,828]) in early MDA villages and by 29% (from 7.2% [246/3,405] to 5.1% [155/3,057]) in control villages. Over the following 9 months, the P. falciparum prevalence increased to 3.3% (96/2,881) in early MDA villages and to 6.1% (128/2,101) in control villages (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.41 [95% CI 0.20 to 0.84]; p = 0.015). Individual protection was proportional to the number of completed MDA rounds. Of 221 participants with subclinical P. falciparum infections who participated in MDA and could be followed up, 207 (94%) cleared their infections, including 9 of 10 with artemisinin-and piperaquine- resistant infections. The DP MDAs were well tolerated; 6 severe adverse events were detected during the follow-up period, but none was attributable to the intervention. Conclusions Added to community-based basic malaria control measures, 3 monthly rounds of DP MDA reduced the incidence and prevalence of falciparum malaria over a 1-year period in areas affected by artemisinin resistance. P. falciparum infections returned during the follow-up period as the remaining infections spread and malaria was reintroduced from surrounding areas. Limitations of this study include a relatively small sample of villages, heterogeneity between villages, and mobility of villagers that may have limited the impact of the intervention. These results suggest that, if used as part of a comprehensive, well-organised, and well-resourced elimination programme, DP MDA can be a useful additional tool to accelerate malaria elimination.
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| 9. |
- Graham, Jesse R., et al.
(författare)
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The pipeline project: Pre-publication independent replications of a single laboratory's research pipeline
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Experimental Social Psychology. - : Elsevier. - 1096-0465 .- 0022-1031. ; 66, s. 55-67
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This crowdsourced project introduces a collaborative approach to improving the reproducibility of scientific research, in which findings are replicated in qualified independent laboratories before (rather than after) they are published. Our goal is to establish a non-adversarial replication process with highly informative final results. To illustrate the Pre-Publication Independent Replication (PPIR) approach, 25 research groups conducted replications of all ten moral judgment effects which the last author and his collaborators had “in the pipeline” as of August 2014. Six findings replicated according to all replication criteria, one finding replicated but with a significantly smaller effect size than the original, one finding replicated consistently in the original culture but not outside of it, and two findings failed to find support. In total, 40% of the original findings failed at least one major replication criterion. Potential ways to implement and incentivize pre-publication independent replication on a large scale are discussed.
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| 11. |
- Röshammar, Daniel, 1979, et al.
(författare)
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Pharmacokinetics of piperaquine after repeated oral administration of the antimalarial combination CV8 in 12 healthy male subjects
- 2006
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Ingår i: Eur J Clin Pharmacol. ; 62:5, s. 335-41
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To investigate the pharmacokinetic properties of piperaquine after repeated oral administration of the antimalarial combination CV8 in healthy subjects. METHODS: Twelve healthy fasted Vietnamese males were administered four tablets CV8 (320 mg piperaquine phosphate, 32 mg dihydroartemisinin, 5 mg primaquine phosphate, 90 mg trimethoprim) on day 1, followed by two tablets every 24th hour, for a total of 3 days. Blood samples were frequently drawn on days 1 and 3 and sparsely drawn until day 29. Samples were analyzed for piperaquine using solid phase extraction followed by high-performance liquid chromatography. Population pharmacokinetic parameter estimates were obtained by nonlinear mixed effects modeling of the observed data using NONMEM. RESULTS: A two-compartment disposition model with an absorption lag time described the observed piperaquine concentrations. Absorption profiles were found to be irregular with double or multiple peaks. A dual pathway first-order absorption model improved the goodness of fit. Piperaquine pharmacokinetics were characterized by a large volume of distribution and a terminal half-life of several days. Estimates [95% confidence interval (CI)] of CL/F, V(ss)/F and t(1/2)(z) were found to be 56.4 (29-84) l/h, 6,000 (3,500-8,500) l and 11.7 (8.3-15.7) days, respectively. CONCLUSION: Piperaquine pharmacokinetics after repeated oral doses were characterized by multiple concentration peaks and multiphasic disposition, resulting in a long terminal half-life. Sustained exposure to the drug after treatment should be taken into account when designing future clinical studies, e.g. duration of follow-up, and may also drive resistance development in areas of high malaria transmission.
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| 12. |
- Washburn, Anthony N., et al.
(författare)
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Data from a pre-publication independent replication initiative examining ten moral judgement effects
- 2016
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Nature Research (part of Springer Nature): Fully open access journals / Nature Publishing Group. - 2052-4463. ; 3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the data from a crowdsourced project seeking to replicate findings in independent laboratories before (rather than after) they are published. In this Pre-Publication Independent Replication (PPIR) initiative, 25 research groups attempted to replicate 10 moral judgment effects from a single laboratory's research pipeline of unpublished findings. The 10 effects were investigated using online/lab surveys containing psychological manipulations (vignettes) followed by questionnaires.
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