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Sökning: WFRF:(Van Vuuren D. P.)

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4.
  • Stroth, U., et al. (författare)
  • Progress from ASDEX Upgrade experiments in preparing the physics basis of ITER operation and DEMO scenario development
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 62:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • An overview of recent results obtained at the tokamak ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) is given. A work flow for predictive profile modelling of AUG discharges was established which is able to reproduce experimental H-mode plasma profiles based on engineering parameters only. In the plasma center, theoretical predictions on plasma current redistribution by a dynamo effect were confirmed experimentally. For core transport, the stabilizing effect of fast ion distributions on turbulent transport is shown to be important to explain the core isotope effect and improves the description of hollow low-Z impurity profiles. The L-H power threshold of hydrogen plasmas is not affected by small helium admixtures and it increases continuously from the deuterium to the hydrogen level when the hydrogen concentration is raised from 0 to 100%. One focus of recent campaigns was the search for a fusion relevant integrated plasma scenario without large edge localised modes (ELMs). Results from six different ELM-free confinement regimes are compared with respect to reactor relevance: ELM suppression by magnetic perturbation coils could be attributed to toroidally asymmetric turbulent fluctuations in the vicinity of the separatrix. Stable improved confinement mode plasma phases with a detached inner divertor were obtained using a feedback control of the plasma β. The enhanced D α H-mode regime was extended to higher heating power by feedback controlled radiative cooling with argon. The quasi-coherent exhaust regime was developed into an integrated scenario at high heating power and energy confinement, with a detached divertor and without large ELMs. Small ELMs close to the separatrix lead to peeling-ballooning stability and quasi continuous power exhaust. Helium beam density fluctuation measurements confirm that transport close to the separatrix is important to achieve the different ELM-free regimes. Based on separatrix plasma parameters and interchange-drift-Alfvén turbulence, an analytic model was derived that reproduces the experimentally found important operational boundaries of the density limit and between L- and H-mode confinement. Feedback control for the X-point radiator (XPR) position was established as an important element for divertor detachment control. Stable and detached ELM-free phases with H-mode confinement quality were obtained when the XPR was moved 10 cm above the X-point. Investigations of the plasma in the future flexible snow-flake divertor of AUG by means of first SOLPS-ITER simulations with drifts activated predict beneficial detachment properties and the activation of an additional strike point by the drifts.
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5.
  • Meyer, H.F., et al. (författare)
  • Overview of physics studies on ASDEX Upgrade
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 59:11
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) programme, jointly run with the EUROfusion MST1 task force, continues to significantly enhance the physics base of ITER and DEMO. Here, the full tungsten wall is a key asset for extrapolating to future devices. The high overall heating power, flexible heating mix and comprehensive diagnostic set allows studies ranging from mimicking the scrape-off-layer and divertor conditions of ITER and DEMO at high density to fully non-inductive operation (q 95 = 5.5, ) at low density. Higher installed electron cyclotron resonance heating power 6 MW, new diagnostics and improved analysis techniques have further enhanced the capabilities of AUG. Stable high-density H-modes with MW m-1 with fully detached strike-points have been demonstrated. The ballooning instability close to the separatrix has been identified as a potential cause leading to the H-mode density limit and is also found to play an important role for the access to small edge-localized modes (ELMs). Density limit disruptions have been successfully avoided using a path-oriented approach to disruption handling and progress has been made in understanding the dissipation and avoidance of runaway electron beams. ELM suppression with resonant magnetic perturbations is now routinely achieved reaching transiently . This gives new insight into the field penetration physics, in particular with respect to plasma flows. Modelling agrees well with plasma response measurements and a helically localised ballooning structure observed prior to the ELM is evidence for the changed edge stability due to the magnetic perturbations. The impact of 3D perturbations on heat load patterns and fast-ion losses have been further elaborated. Progress has also been made in understanding the ELM cycle itself. Here, new fast measurements of and E r allow for inter ELM transport analysis confirming that E r is dominated by the diamagnetic term even for fast timescales. New analysis techniques allow detailed comparison of the ELM crash and are in good agreement with nonlinear MHD modelling. The observation of accelerated ions during the ELM crash can be seen as evidence for the reconnection during the ELM. As type-I ELMs (even mitigated) are likely not a viable operational regime in DEMO studies of 'natural' no ELM regimes have been extended. Stable I-modes up to have been characterised using -feedback. Core physics has been advanced by more detailed characterisation of the turbulence with new measurements such as the eddy tilt angle - measured for the first time - or the cross-phase angle of and fluctuations. These new data put strong constraints on gyro-kinetic turbulence modelling. In addition, carefully executed studies in different main species (H, D and He) and with different heating mixes highlight the importance of the collisional energy exchange for interpreting energy confinement. A new regime with a hollow profile now gives access to regimes mimicking aspects of burning plasma conditions and lead to nonlinear interactions of energetic particle modes despite the sub-Alfvénic beam energy. This will help to validate the fast-ion codes for predicting ITER and DEMO.
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  • Abdoullaye, Doukary, et al. (författare)
  • Permanent genetic resources added to molecular ecology resources database 1 August 2009 - 30 September 2009
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Molecular Ecology Resources. - : Wiley. - 1755-098X .- 1755-0998. ; 10:1, s. 232-236
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This article documents the addition of 238 microsatellite marker loci and 72 pairs of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) sequencing primers to the Molecular Ecology Resources Database. Loci were developed for the following species: Adelges tsugae, Artemisia tridentata, Astroides calycularis, Azorella selago, Botryllus schlosseri, Botrylloides violaceus, Cardiocrinum cordatum var. glehnii, Campylopterus curvipennis, Colocasia esculenta, Cynomys ludovicianus, Cynomys leucurus, Cynomys gunnisoni, Epinephelus coioides, Eunicella singularis, Gammarus pulex, Homoeosoma nebulella, Hyla squirella, Lateolabrax japonicus, Mastomys erythroleucus, Pararge aegeria, Pardosa sierra, Phoenicopterus ruber ruber and Silene latifolia. These loci were cross-tested on the following species: Adelges abietis, Adelges cooleyi, Adelges piceae, Pineus pini, Pineus strobi, Tubastrea micrantha, three other Tubastrea species, Botrylloides fuscus, Botrylloides simodensis, Campylopterus hemileucurus, Campylopterus rufus, Campylopterus largipennis, Campylopterus villaviscensio, Phaethornis longuemareus, Florisuga mellivora, Lampornis amethystinus, Amazilia cyanocephala, Archilochus colubris, Epinephelus lanceolatus, Epinephelus fuscoguttatus, Symbiodinium temperate-A clade, Gammarus fossarum, Gammarus roeselii, Dikerogammarus villosus and Limnomysis benedeni. This article also documents the addition of 72 sequencing primer pairs and 52 allele specific primers for Neophocaena phocaenoides.
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7.
  • Pihl, E., et al. (författare)
  • Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - : Cambridge University Press. - 2059-4798.
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost-benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- A nd long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science. 
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  • Leclere, David, et al. (författare)
  • Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 585:7826, s. 551-556
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides(1,2). Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity(3); however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge(4). Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity(5). We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy. To promote the recovery of the currently declining global trends in terrestrial biodiversity, increases in both the extent of land under conservation management and the sustainability of the global food system from farm to fork are required.
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10.
  • Nielsen, K. S., et al. (författare)
  • Improving Climate Change Mitigation Analysis : A Framework for Examining Feasibility
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: One Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 3:3, s. 325-336
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Limiting global warming to 2°C or less compared with pre-industrial temperatures will require unprecedented rates of decarbonization globally. The scale and scope of transformational change required across sectors and actors in society raises critical questions of feasibility. Much of the literature on mitigation pathways addresses technological and economic aspects of feasibility, but overlooks the behavioral, cultural, and social factors that affect theoretical and practical mitigation pathways. We present a tripartite framework that “unpacks” the concept of mitigation pathways by distinguishing three factors that together determine actual mitigation: technical potential, initiative feasibility, and behavioral plasticity. The framework aims to integrate and streamline heterogeneous disciplinary research traditions toward a more comprehensive and transparent approach that will facilitate learning across disciplines and enable mitigation pathways to more fully reflect available knowledge. We offer three suggestions for integrating the tripartite framework into current research on climate change mitigation.
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11.
  • Biermann, Frank, et al. (författare)
  • Scientific evidence on the political impact of the Sustainable Development Goals
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Nature. - 2398-9629. ; 5:9, s. 795-800
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In 2015, the United Nations agreed on 17 Sustainable Development Goals as the central normative framework for sustainable development worldwide. The effectiveness of governing by such broad global goals, however, remains uncertain, and we lack comprehensive meta-studies that assess the political impact of the goals across countries and globally. We present here condensed evidence from an analysis of over 3,000 scientific studies on the Sustainable Development Goals published between 2016 and April 2021. Our findings suggests that the goals have had some political impact on institutions and policies, from local to global governance. This impact has been largely discursive, affecting the way actors understand and communicate about sustainable development. More profound normative and institutional impact, from legislative action to changing resource allocation, remains rare. We conclude that the scientific evidence suggests only limited transformative political impact of the Sustainable Development Goals thus far.
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12.
  • Fuss, Sabine, et al. (författare)
  • Moving toward Net-Zero Emissions Requires New Alliances for Carbon Dioxide Removal
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: One Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-3322 .- 2590-3330. ; 3:2, s. 145-149
  • Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • The 1.5 degrees C target will require removing at least some of the carbon dioxide (CO2) previously emitted. Knowledge on how this can be done has been increasing, though barriers remain concerning governance, policy, and acceptability. For the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP26) to move beyond an academic debate on CO2 removal (CDR), a broader alliance of research and policy communities, industry, and the public is needed.
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  • Vuuren, D.P. van, et al. (författare)
  • An energy vision : the transformation towards sustainability — interconnected challenges and solutions
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. - : Elsevier BV. - 1877-3435 .- 1877-3443. ; 4:1, s. 18-34
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The energy system is currently facing a number of challenges, most notably high consumption levels, lack of energy access, environmental concerns like climate change and air pollution, energy security concerns and the need for a long-term focus. Addressing these critical issues simultaneously will require a fundamental transformation of the global energy system. Recent assessments show that such transformational pathways are achievable in technological and economic terms, but constitute formidable governance challenges across scales. In this paper, we discuss a long-term vision for the energy system and elements of the transition towards this vision. This transformation would need to be based on several key components, including taking an integrated approach as basis, the focus on high levels of energy efficiency and the scale up of investments, also in RD&D.
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  • Engström, Kerstin, et al. (författare)
  • Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 7:4, s. 893-915
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) using socio-economic data from the SSPs and climate data from the RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The simulated range of global cropland is 893-2380 Mha in 2100 (± 1 standard deviation), with the main uncertainties arising from differences in the socio-economic conditions prescribed by the SSP scenarios and the assumptions that underpin the translation of qualitative SSP storylines into quantitative model input parameters. Uncertainties in the assumptions for population growth, technological change and cropland degradation were found to be the most important for global cropland, while uncertainty in food consumption had less influence on the results. The uncertainties arising from climate variability and the differences between climate change scenarios do not strongly affect the range of global cropland futures. Some overlap occurred across all of the conditional probabilistic futures, except for those based on SSP3. We conclude that completely different socio-economic and climate change futures, although sharing low to medium population development, can result in very similar cropland areas on the aggregated global scale.
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15.
  • Pereira, Laura, et al. (författare)
  • Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Ecosystems and People. - : Informa UK Limited. - 2639-5908 .- 2639-5916. ; 17:1, s. 191-204
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Global Environmental Assessments (GEAs) are in a unique position to influence environmental decision-making in the context of sustainability challenges. To do this effectively, however, new methods are needed to respond to the needs of decision-makers for a more integrated, contextualized and goal-seeking evaluation of different policies, geared for action from global to local. While scenarios are an important tool for GEAs to link short-term decisions and medium and long-term consequences, these current information needs cannot be met only through deductive approaches focused on the global level. In this paper, we argue that a more diverse set of futures tools operating at multiple scales are needed to improve GEA scenario development and analysis to meet the information needs of policymakers and other stakeholders better. Based on the literature, we highlight four challenges that GEAs need to be able to address in order to contribute to global environmental decision-making about the future: 1. anticipate unpredictable future conditions; 2. be relevant at multiple scales, 3. include diverse actors, perspectives and contexts; and 4. leverage the imagination to inspire action. We present a toolbox of future-oriented approaches and methods that can be used to effectively address the four challenges currently faced by GEAs.
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