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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Wang, H. D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1084-1150
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 5. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 6. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 7. |
- Fomalont, E. B., et al.
(författare)
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THE 2014 ALMA LONG BASELINE CAMPAIGN: AN OVERVIEW
- 2015
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 808:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A major goal of the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) is to make accurate images with resolutions of tens of milliarcseconds, which at submillimeter (submm) wavelengths requires baselines up to similar to 15 km. To develop and test this capability, a Long Baseline Campaign (LBC) was carried out from 2014 September to late November, culminating in end-to-end observations, calibrations, and imaging of selected Science Verification (SV) targets. This paper presents an overview of the campaign and its main results, including an investigation of the short-term coherence properties and systematic phase errors over the long baselines at the ALMA site, a summary of the SV targets and observations, and recommendations for science observing strategies at long baselines. Deep ALMA images of the quasar 3C 138 at 97 and 241 GHz are also compared to VLA 43 GHz results, demonstrating an agreement at a level of a few percent. As a result of the extensive program of LBC testing, the highly successful SV imaging at long baselines achieved angular resolutions as fine as 19 mas at similar to 350 GHz. Observing with ALMA on baselines of up to 15 km is now possible, and opens up new parameter space for submm astronomy.
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| 8. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 10. |
- Hibar, Derrek P., et al.
(författare)
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Novel genetic loci associated with hippocampal volume
- 2017
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The hippocampal formation is a brain structure integrally involved in episodic memory, spatial navigation, cognition and stress responsiveness. Structural abnormalities in hippocampal volume and shape are found in several common neuropsychiatric disorders. To identify the genetic underpinnings of hippocampal structure here we perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 33,536 individuals and discover six independent loci significantly associated with hippocampal volume, four of them novel. Of the novel loci, three lie within genes (ASTN2, DPP4 and MAST4) and one is found 200 kb upstream of SHH. A hippocampal subfield analysis shows that a locus within the MSRB3 gene shows evidence of a localized effect along the dentate gyrus, subiculum, CA1 and fissure. Further, we show that genetic variants associated with decreased hippocampal volume are also associated with increased risk for Alzheimer's disease (r(g) = -0.155). Our findings suggest novel biological pathways through which human genetic variation influences hippocampal volume and risk for neuropsychiatric illness.
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| 11. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 12. |
- Satizabal, Claudia L., et al.
(författare)
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Genetic architecture of subcortical brain structures in 38,851 individuals
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 51:11, s. 1624-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Subcortical brain structures are integral to motion, consciousness, emotions and learning. We identified common genetic variation related to the volumes of the nucleus accumbens, amygdala, brainstem, caudate nucleus, globus pallidus, putamen and thalamus, using genome-wide association analyses in almost 40,000 individuals from CHARGE, ENIGMA and UK Biobank. We show that variability in subcortical volumes is heritable, and identify 48 significantly associated loci (40 novel at the time of analysis). Annotation of these loci by utilizing gene expression, methylation and neuropathological data identified 199 genes putatively implicated in neurodevelopment, synaptic signaling, axonal transport, apoptosis, inflammation/infection and susceptibility to neurological disorders. This set of genes is significantly enriched for Drosophila orthologs associated with neurodevelopmental phenotypes, suggesting evolutionarily conserved mechanisms. Our findings uncover novel biology and potential drug targets underlying brain development and disease.
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| 13. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
- de Zwarte, Sonja M. C., et al.
(författare)
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Intelligence, educational attainment, and brain structure in those at familial high-risk for schizophrenia or bipolar disorder
- 2022
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Ingår i: Human Brain Mapping. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1065-9471 .- 1097-0193. ; 43:1, s. 414-430
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- First-degree relatives of patients diagnosed with schizophrenia (SZ-FDRs) show similar patterns of brain abnormalities and cognitive alterations to patients, albeit with smaller effect sizes. First-degree relatives of patients diagnosed with bipolar disorder (BD-FDRs) show divergent patterns; on average, intracranial volume is larger compared to controls, and findings on cognitive alterations in BD-FDRs are inconsistent. Here, we performed a meta-analysis of global and regional brain measures (cortical and subcortical), current IQ, and educational attainment in 5,795 individuals (1,103 SZ-FDRs, 867 BD-FDRs, 2,190 controls, 942 schizophrenia patients, 693 bipolar patients) from 36 schizophrenia and/or bipolar disorder family cohorts, with standardized methods. Compared to controls, SZ-FDRs showed a pattern of widespread thinner cortex, while BD-FDRs had widespread larger cortical surface area. IQ was lower in SZ-FDRs (d = -0.42, p = 3 × 10-5 ), with weak evidence of IQ reductions among BD-FDRs (d = -0.23, p = .045). Both relative groups had similar educational attainment compared to controls. When adjusting for IQ or educational attainment, the group-effects on brain measures changed, albeit modestly. Changes were in the expected direction, with less pronounced brain abnormalities in SZ-FDRs and more pronounced effects in BD-FDRs. To conclude, SZ-FDRs and BD-FDRs show a differential pattern of structural brain abnormalities. In contrast, both had lower IQ scores and similar school achievements compared to controls. Given that brain differences between SZ-FDRs and BD-FDRs remain after adjusting for IQ or educational attainment, we suggest that differential brain developmental processes underlying predisposition for schizophrenia or bipolar disorder are likely independent of general cognitive impairment.
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| 16. |
- de Zwarte, Sonja M. C., et al.
(författare)
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The association between familial risk and brain abnormalities is disease specific : an ENIGMA-relatives study of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder
- 2019
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Ingår i: Biological Psychiatry. - : Elsevier. - 0006-3223 .- 1873-2402. ; 86:7, s. 545-556
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia and bipolar disorder share genetic liability, and some structural brain abnormalities are common to both conditions. First-degree relatives of patients with schizophrenia (FDRs-SZ) show similar brain abnormalities to patients, albeit with smaller effect sizes. Imaging findings in first-degree relatives of patients with bipolar disorder (FDRs-BD) have been inconsistent in the past, but recent studies report regionally greater volumes compared with control subjects.METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis of global and subcortical brain measures of 6008 individuals (1228 FDRs-SZ, 852 FDRs-BD, 2246 control subjects, 1016 patients with schizophrenia, 666 patients with bipolar disorder) from 34 schizophrenia and/or bipolar disorder family cohorts with standardized methods. Analyses were repeated with a correction for intracranial volume (ICV) and for the presence of any psychopathology in the relatives and control subjects.RESULTS: FDRs-BD had significantly larger ICV (d = +0.16, q < .05 corrected), whereas FDRs-SZ showed smaller thalamic volumes than control subjects (d = -0.12, q < .05 corrected). ICV explained the enlargements in the brain measures in FDRs-BD. In FDRs-SZ, after correction for ICV, total brain, cortical gray matter, cerebral white matter, cerebellar gray and white matter, and thalamus volumes were significantly smaller; the cortex was thinner (d < -0.09, q < .05 corrected); and third ventricle was larger (d = +0.15, q < .05 corrected). The findings were not explained by psychopathology in the relatives or control subjects.CONCLUSIONS: Despite shared genetic liability, FDRs-SZ and FDRs-BD show a differential pattern of structural brain abnormalities, specifically a divergent effect in ICV. This may imply that the neurodevelopmental trajectories leading to brain anomalies in schizophrenia or bipolar disorder are distinct.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Mouafo, L. D. N., et al.
(författare)
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Tuning contact transport mechanisms in bilayer MoSe2 transistors up to Fowler-Nordheim regime
- 2017
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Ingår i: 2D Materials. - : IOP Publishing. - 2053-1583. ; 4:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Atomically thin molybdenum diselenide (MoSe2) is an emerging two-dimensional (2D) semiconductor with significant potential for electronic, optoelectronic, spintronic applications and a common platform for their possible integration. Tuning interface charge transport between such new 2D materials and metallic electrodes is a key issue in 2D device physics and engineering. Here, we report tunable interface charge transport in bilayer MoSe2 field effect transistors with Ti/Au contacts showing high on/off ratio up to 107 at room temperature. Our experiments reveal a detailed map of transport mechanisms obtained by controlling the interface band bending profile via temperature, gate and source-drain bias voltages. This comprehensive investigation leads to demarcating regimes and tuning in transport mechanisms while controlling the interface barrier profile. The careful analysis allows us to identify thermally activated regime at low carrier density, and Schottky barrier driven mechanisms at higher carrier density demonstrating the transition from low-field direct tunneling/ thermionic emission to high-field Fowler–Nordheim tunneling. Furthermore, we show that the transition voltage Vtrans to Fowler–Nordheim correlates directly to the difference between the chemical potential of the metal electrode and the conduction band minimum in the 2D semiconductor, which opens up opportunities for new theoretical and experimental investigations. Our approach being generic can be extended to other 2D materials, and the possibility of tuning contact transport regimes is promising for designing MoSe2 device applications.
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| 19. |
- Muscas, Giuseppe, et al.
(författare)
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Ultralow magnetostrictive flexible ferromagnetic nanowires dagger
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nanoscale. - : Royal Society of Chemistry. - 2040-3364 .- 2040-3372. ; 13:12, s. 6043-6052
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The integration of magneto-electric and spintronic sensors to flexible electronics presents a huge potential for advancing flexible and wearable technologies. Magnetic nanowires are core components for building such devices. Therefore, realizing flexible magnetic nanowires with engineered magneto-elastic properties is key to flexible spintronic circuits, as well as creating unique pathways to explore complex flexible spintronic, magnonic, and magneto-plasmonic devices. Here, we demonstrate highly resilient flexible ferromagnetic nanowires on transparent flexible substrates for the first time. Through extensive magneto-optical Kerr experiments, exploring the Villari effect, we reveal an ultralow magnetostrictive constant in nanowires, a two-order reduced value compared to bulk values. In addition, the flexible magnetic nanowires exhibit remarkable resilience sustaining bending radii similar to 5 mm, high endurance, and enhanced elastic limit compared to thin films of similar thickness and composition. The observed performance is corroborated by our micro-magnetic simulations and can be attributed to the reduced size and strong nanostructure-interfacial effects. Such stable magnetic nanowires with ultralow magnetostriction open up new opportunities for stable surface mountable and wearable spintronic sensors, advanced nanospintronic circuits, and for exploring novel strain-induced quantum effects in hybrid devices.
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| 20. |
- Ostaszewski, Marek, et al.
(författare)
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COVID19 Disease Map, a computational knowledge repository of virus-host interaction mechanisms
- 2021
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Ingår i: Molecular Systems Biology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1744-4292 .- 1744-4292. ; 17:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We need to effectively combine the knowledge from surging literature with complex datasets to propose mechanistic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection, improving data interpretation and predicting key targets of intervention. Here, we describe a large-scale community effort to build an open access, interoperable and computable repository of COVID-19 molecular mechanisms. The COVID-19 Disease Map (C19DMap) is a graphical, interactive representation of disease-relevant molecular mechanisms linking many knowledge sources. Notably, it is a computational resource for graph-based analyses and disease modelling. To this end, we established a framework of tools, platforms and guidelines necessary for a multifaceted community of biocurators, domain experts, bioinformaticians and computational biologists. The diagrams of the C19DMap, curated from the literature, are integrated with relevant interaction and text mining databases. We demonstrate the application of network analysis and modelling approaches by concrete examples to highlight new testable hypotheses. This framework helps to find signatures of SARS-CoV-2 predisposition, treatment response or prioritisation of drug candidates. Such an approach may help deal with new waves of COVID-19 or similar pandemics in the long-term perspective.
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| 21. |
- Patel, Vyoma K., et al.
(författare)
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Tackling the cytokine storm using advanced drug delivery in allergic airway disease
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Drug Delivery Science and Technology. - : Elsevier. - 1773-2247. ; 82
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Asthma is one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide presenting a huge socio-economic burden with rising morbidity and mortality rates. It is a chronic inflammatory airway disease that is eminent with multiple epidemiological and pathophysiological features such as over production of pro-inflammatory cytokines that triggers an uncontrolled aberrant inflammatory response known as 'cytokine storm'. This phenomenon interferes with the signalling and production of cytokines over time leading to the progression of disease and the development of complications that lead to fatal consequences in many individuals. Targeting this overproduction and signalling of cytokines may prove a promising approach to develop novel cytokine specific therapies in the treatment of asthma. This review discusses on the various pharmacological strategies, recent advancements in drug delivery systems and significant findings from clinical trials that may have a potential to outweigh the limitations of the current therapies in the treatment of asthma.
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| 22. |
- Serrano, Ismael G., et al.
(författare)
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Flexible transparent graphene laminates via direct lamination of graphene onto polyethylene naphthalate substrates
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nanoscale Advances. - : Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC). - 2516-0230. ; 2:8, s. 3156-3163
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Graphene, with its excellent electrical, mechanical, and optical properties, has emerged as an exceptional material for flexible and transparent nanoelectronics. Such versatility makes it compelling to find new pathways to lay graphene sheets onto smooth, flexible substrates to create large-scale flexible transparent graphene conductors. Here, we report the realization of flexible transparent graphene laminates by direct adhesion of chemical vapor deposition (CVD) graphene on a polyethylene naphthalate (PEN) substrate, which is an emerging standard for flexible electronics. By systematically optimizing the conditions of a hot-press technique, we have identified that applying optimum temperature and pressure can make graphene directly adhere to flexible PEN substrates without any intermediate layer. The resultant flexible graphene films are transparent, have a standard sheet resistance of 1 k Omega with high bending resilience, and high optical transmittance of 85%. Our direct hot-press method is achieved below the glass transition temperature of the PEN substrate. Furthermore, we demonstrate press-assisted embossing for patterned transfer of graphene, and hence it can serve as a reliable new means for creating universal, transparent conducting patterned films for designing flexible nanoelectronic and optoelectronic components.
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| 23. |
- Serrano, Ismael G., et al.
(författare)
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Two-Dimensional Flexible High Diffusive Spin Circuits
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nano Letters. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 1530-6984 .- 1530-6992. ; 19:2, s. 666-673
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Owing to their unprecedented electronic properties, graphene and two-dimensional (2D) crystals have brought fresh opportunities for advances in planar spintronic devices. Graphene is an ideal medium for spin transport while being an exceptionally resilient material for flexible nanoelectronics. However, these extraordinary traits have never been combined to create flexible graphene spin circuits. Realizing such circuits could lead to bendable strain-spin sensors, as well as a unique platform to explore pure spin current based operations and low-power 2D flexible nanoelectronics. Here, we demonstrate graphene spin circuits on flexible substrates for the first time. Despite the rough topography of the flexible substrates, these circuits prepared with chemical vapor deposited monolayer graphene reveal an efficient room temperature spin transport with distinctively large spin diffusion coefficients ∼0.2 m2 s–1. Compared to earlier graphene devices on Si/SiO2 substrates, such values are up to 20 times larger, leading to one order higher spin signals and an enhanced spin diffusion length ∼10 μm in graphene-based nonlocal spin valves fabricated using industry standard systems. This high performance arising out of a characteristic substrate terrain shows promise of a scalable and flexible platform towards flexible 2D spintronics. Our innovation is a key step for the exploration of strain-dependent 2D spin phenomena and paves the way for flexible graphene spin memory–logic units and planar spin sensors.
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| 24. |
- Upadhyayula, Venkata K.K., et al.
(författare)
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Lightweighting and electrification strategies for improving environmental performante of passenger cars in India by 2030 : A critical perspective based on life cycle assessment
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production. - : Elsevier. - 0959-6526 .- 1879-1786. ; 209, s. 1604-1613
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Indian automotive industry is faced with an unenviable challenge of achieving a sustainable growth in one of the largest markets. Adapting to increasingly strict environmental norms by the government committed to reducing the national greenhouse gas emissions, growing concerns amongst the citizens over the deteriorating air quality in the cities are the major environmental sustainability challenges for the auto industry in next decade. In this study, we analyze the potential benefits of vehicle light weighting and introduction of electric vehicles through a cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment (LCA) of a standard sedan passenger vehicle. Based on the LCA results, five different scenarios are envisioned with different composition of the passenger vehicle fleet in 2030. These scenarios are used to analyze three key enviro-economical goals for India; (1) dependency on crude oil imports, (2) GHG emission reduction targets and (3) improvement in urban air quality. The results indicate that global warming potential (GWP) and fossil depletion impacts of ICEs can be reduced by 17%, while metal depletion reduces by 34% per vehicle with lightweighting. However, increase in freshwater ecotoxicity impact by 57% is one of the trade-offs. The GWP of a compact BEV powered with current (2014) and 2030 electricity grid mixes is 36% and 16% higher than petrol car. The GWP of a sub-compact BEV powered with current grid mix is 9% higher with current grid mix but 14% lower than petrol cars when powered with 2030 electricity grid mix. Crude oil consumption and GHG emissions are reduced by 20% with lightweight ICE fleet. Whereas, up to 45% reduction in crude oil consumption and 65% improvement in urban air quality can be achieved with BEV penetration scenarios. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 25. |
- Velvizhi, G., et al.
(författare)
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Conversion of carbon dioxide to value added products through anaerobic fermentation and electro fermentation: A comparative approach
- 2022
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Ingår i: International journal of hydrogen energy. - : Elsevier. - 0360-3199 .- 1879-3487. ; 47:34, s. 15442-15455
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Increasing carbon footprint alters the carbon balance in nature, thereby worsening global climate change. The conversion of carbon dioxide (CO2) into value-added products through biological routes is the pathway of the future because of its ecological and sustainable character. The present study evaluated the conversion of CO2 into short-chain fatty acids (SCFA)/volatile fatty acids (VFA) and methane using four experimental conditions (R1-R4). The experimental conditions are R1 was an anaerobic fermenter (AF) operated as control, R2 consisted of an AF with electrodes operated in open circuit, R3 was an AF with electrodes operated in a closed circuit with 100 Ω as load and R4 was an electro-fermentation reactor with an applied cathodic potential of −0.8 V vs. Ag/AgCl. The results were assessed in terms of production of SCFA, methane, current density and inorganic carbon reduction. Electro-fermentation (R4) setup achieved the highest production of SCFA (2050 mg/L) and methane (41.2 mL/day) compared to other reactors. R3 reported 1800 mg/L and 24 mL/day, R2 reported 1560 mg/L and 15 mL/day and R1 reported 1430 mg/L and 10 mL/day of methane and SCFA production. The study-inferred that electro-fermentation could effectively catalyse the biochemical reactions and enhance the conversion of CO2 to organic compounds in a sustainable manner.
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| 26. |
- Waikar, Sushrut S, et al.
(författare)
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Relationship of proximal tubular injury to chronic kidney disease as assessed by urinary kidney injury molecule-1 in five cohort studies
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nephrology, Dialysis and Transplantation. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0931-0509 .- 1460-2385. ; 31:9, s. 1460-1470
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The primary biomarkers used to define CKD are serum creatinine and albuminuria. These biomarkers have directed focus on the filtration and barrier functions of the kidney glomerulus even though albuminuria results from tubule dysfunction as well. Given that proximal tubules make up ∼90% of kidney cortical mass, we evaluated whether a sensitive and specific marker of proximal tubule injury, urinary kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), is elevated in individuals with CKD or with risk factors for CKD.METHODS: We measured urinary KIM-1 in participants of five cohort studies from the USA and Sweden. Participants had a wide range of kidney function and were racially and ethnically diverse. Multivariable linear regression models were used to test the association of urinary KIM-1 with demographic, clinical and laboratory values.RESULTS: In pooled, multivariable-adjusted analyses, log-transformed, creatinine-normalized urinary KIM-1 levels were higher in those with lower eGFR {β = -0.03 per 10 mL/min/1.73 m(2) [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.05 to -0.02]} and greater albuminuria [β = 0.16 per unit of log albumin:creatinine ratio (95% CI 0.15-0.17)]. Urinary KIM-1 levels were higher in current smokers, lower in blacks than nonblacks and lower in users versus nonusers of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers.CONCLUSION: Proximal tubule injury appears to be an integral and measurable element of multiple stages of CKD.
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| 27. |
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| 28. |
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| 29. |
- Whelan, Patrick R., et al.
(författare)
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Fermi velocity renormalization in graphene probed by terahertz time-domain spectroscopy
- 2020
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Ingår i: 2D Materials. - : IOP Publishing. - 2053-1583. ; 7:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We demonstrate terahertz time-domain spectroscopy (THz-TDS) to be an accurate, rapid and scalable method to probe the interaction-induced Fermi velocity renormalization nu F*10(12) cm(-2), Fermi level > 0.1 eV). From an application point of view, the ability to rapidly and non-destructively quantify and map the electrical (sigma(DC), n, mu) and electronic ( nu F*
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