| 1. |
- Peaucelle, Marc, et al.
(författare)
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Covariations between plant functional traits emerge from constraining parameterization of a terrestrial biosphere model
- 2019
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 28:9, s. 1351-1365
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: The mechanisms of plant trait adaptation and acclimation are still poorly understood and, consequently, lack a consistent representation in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). Despite the increasing availability of geo-referenced trait observations, current databases are still insufficient to cover all vegetation types and environmental conditions. In parallel, the growing number of continuous eddy-covariance observations of energy and CO2 fluxes has enabled modellers to optimize TBMs with these data. Past attempts to optimize TBM parameters mostly focused on model performance, overlooking the ecological properties of ecosystems. The aim of this study was to assess the ecological consistency of optimized trait-related parameters while improving the model performances for gross primary productivity (GPP) at sites. Location: Worldwide. Time period: 1992–2012. Major taxa studied: Trees and C3 grasses. Methods: We optimized parameters of the ORCHIDEE model against 371 site-years of GPP estimates from the FLUXNET network, and we looked at global covariation among parameters and with climate. Results: The optimized parameter values were shown to be consistent with leaf-scale traits, in particular, with well-known trade-offs observed at the leaf level, echoing the leaf economic spectrum theory. Results showed a marked sensitivity of trait-related parameters to local bioclimatic variables and reproduced the observed relationships between traits and climate. Main conclusions: Our approach validates some biological processes implemented in the model and enables us to study ecological properties of vegetation at the canopy level, in addition to some traits that are difficult to observe experimentally. This study stresses the need for: (a) implementing explicit trade-offs and acclimation processes in TBMs; (b) improving the representation of processes to avoid model-specific parameterization; and (c) performing systematic measurements of traits at FLUXNET sites in order to gather information on plant ecophysiology and plant diversity, together with micro-meteorological conditions.
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| 2. |
- Ahlström, Anders, et al.
(författare)
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The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO2 sink
- 2015
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 1095-9203 .- 0036-8075. ; 348:6237, s. 895-899
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations since industrialization is characterized by large interannual variability, mostly resulting from variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems (typically termed carbon sink). However, the contributions of regional ecosystems to that variability are not well known. Using an ensemble of ecosystem and land-surface models and an empirical observation-based product of global gross primary production, we show that the mean sink, trend, and interannual variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems are dominated by distinct biogeographic regions. Whereas the mean sink is dominated by highly productive lands (mainly tropical forests), the trend and interannual variability of the sink are dominated by semi-arid ecosystems whose carbon balance is strongly associated with circulation-driven variations in both precipitation and temperature.
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| 3. |
- Anav, Alessandro, et al.
(författare)
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Spatiotemporal patterns of terrestrial gross primary production : A review
- 2015
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Ingår i: Reviews of geophysics. - 8755-1209 .- 1944-9208. ; 53:3, s. 785-818
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Great advances have been made in the last decade in quantifying and understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) with ground, atmospheric, and space observations. However, although global GPP estimates exist, each data set relies upon assumptions and none of the available data are based only on measurements. Consequently, there is no consensus on the global total GPP and large uncertainties exist in its benchmarking. The objective of this review is to assess how the different available data sets predict the spatiotemporal patterns of GPP, identify the differences among data sets, and highlight the main advantages/disadvantages of each data set. We compare GPP estimates for the historical period (1990-2009) from two observation-based data sets (Model Tree Ensemble and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) to coupled carbon-climate models and terrestrial carbon cycle models from the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project and TRENDY projects and to a new hybrid data set (CARBONES). Results show a large range in the mean global GPP estimates. The different data sets broadly agree on GPP seasonal cycle in terms of phasing, while there is still discrepancy on the amplitude. For interannual variability (IAV) and trends, there is a clear separation between the observation-based data that show little IAV and trend, while the process-based models have large GPP variability and significant trends. These results suggest that there is an urgent need to improve observation-based data sets and develop carbon cycle modeling with processes that are currently treated either very simplistically to correctly estimate present GPP and better quantify the future uptake of carbon dioxide by the world's vegetation.
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| 4. |
- Beer, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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Terrestrial Gross Carbon Dioxide Uptake: Global Distribution and Covariation with Climate
- 2010
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 1095-9203 .- 0036-8075. ; 329:5993, s. 834-838
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the largest global CO2 flux driving several ecosystem functions. We provide an observation-based estimate of this flux at 123 +/- 8 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year(-1)) using eddy covariance flux data and various diagnostic models. Tropical forests and savannahs account for 60%. GPP over 40% of the vegetated land is associated with precipitation. State-of-the-art process-oriented biosphere models used for climate predictions exhibit a large between-model variation of GPP's latitudinal patterns and show higher spatial correlations between GPP and precipitation, suggesting the existence of missing processes or feedback mechanisms which attenuate the vegetation response to climate. Our estimates of spatially distributed GPP and its covariation with climate can help improve coupled climate-carbon cycle process models.
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| 5. |
- Fisher, Joshua B., et al.
(författare)
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African tropical rainforest net carbon dioxide fluxes in the twentieth century
- 2013
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Ingår i: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 1471-2970 .- 0962-8436. ; 368:1625, s. 9-20120376
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The African humid tropical biome constitutes the second largest rainforest region, significantly impacts global carbon cycling and climate, and has undergone major changes in functioning owing to climate and land-use change over the past century. We assess changes and trends in CO2 fluxes from 1901 to 2010 using nine land surface models forced with common driving data, and depict the inter-model variability as the uncertainty in fluxes. The biome is estimated to be a natural (no disturbance) net carbon sink (−0.02 kg C m−2 yr−1 or −0.04 Pg C yr−1, p < 0.05) with increasing strength fourfold in the second half of the century. The models were in close agreement on net CO2 flux at the beginning of the century (σ1901 = 0.02 kg C m−2 yr−1), but diverged exponentially throughout the century (σ2010 = 0.03 kg C m−2 yr−1). The increasing uncertainty is due to differences in sensitivity to increasing atmospheric CO2, but not increasing water stress, despite a decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature. However, the largest uncertainties were associated with the most extreme drought events of the century. These results highlight the need to constrain modelled CO2 fluxes with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and extreme climatic events, as the uncertainties will only amplify in the next century.
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| 6. |
- Friend, Andrew D., et al.
(författare)
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FLUXNET and modelling the global carbon cycle
- 2007
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 13:3, s. 610-633
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Measurements of the net CO2 flux between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere using the eddy covariance technique have the potential to underpin our interpretation of regional CO2 source-sink patterns, CO2 flux responses to forcings, and predictions of the future terrestrial C balance. Information contained in FLUXNET eddy covariance data has multiple uses for the development and application of global carbon models, including evaluation/validation, calibration, process parameterization, and data assimilation. This paper reviews examples of these uses, compares global estimates of the dynamics of the global carbon cycle, and suggests ways of improving the utility of such data for global carbon modelling. Net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) predicted by different terrestrial biosphere models compares favourably with FLUXNET observations at diurnal and seasonal timescales. However, complete model validation, particularly over the full annual cycle, requires information on the balance between assimilation and decomposition processes, information not readily available for most FLUXNET sites. Site history, when known, can greatly help constrain the model-data comparison. Flux measurements made over four vegetation types were used to calibrate the land-surface scheme of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model, significantly improving simulated climate and demonstrating the utility of diurnal FLUXNET data for climate modelling. Land-surface temperatures in many regions cool due to higher canopy conductances and latent heat fluxes, and the spatial distribution of CO2 uptake provides a significant additional constraint on the realism of simulated surface fluxes. FLUXNET data are used to calibrate a global production efficiency model (PEM). This model is forced by satellite-measured absorbed radiation and suggests that global net primary production (NPP) increased 6.2% over 1982-1999. Good agreement is found between global trends in NPP estimated by the PEM and a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and between the DGVM and estimates of global NEE derived from a global inversion of atmospheric CO2 measurements. Combining the PEM, DGVM, and inversion results suggests that CO2 fertilization is playing a major role in current increases in NPP, with lesser impacts from increasing N deposition and growing season length. Both the PEM and the inversion identify the Amazon basin as a key region for the current net terrestrial CO2 uptake (i.e. 33% of global NEE), as well as its interannual variability. The inversion's global NEE estimate of -1.2 Pg [C] yr(-1) for 1982-1995 is compatible with the PEM- and DGVM-predicted trends in NPP. There is, thus, a convergence in understanding derived from process-based models, remote-sensing-based observations, and inversion of atmospheric data. Future advances in field measurement techniques, including eddy covariance (particularly concerning the problem of night-time fluxes in dense canopies and of advection or flow distortion over complex terrain), will result in improved constraints on land-atmosphere CO2 fluxes and the rigorous attribution of mechanisms to the current terrestrial net CO2 uptake and its spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Global ecosystem models play a fundamental role in linking information derived from FLUXNET measurements to atmospheric CO2 variability. A number of recommendations concerning FLUXNET data are made, including a request for more comprehensive site data (particularly historical information), more measurements in undisturbed ecosystems, and the systematic provision of error estimates. The greatest value of current FLUXNET data for global carbon cycle modelling is in evaluating process representations, rather than in providing an unbiased estimate of net CO2 exchange.
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| 7. |
- Jung, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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Compensatory water effects link yearly global land CO 2 sink changes to temperature
- 2017
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 541:7638, s. 516-520
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Large interannual variations in the measured growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) originate primarily from fluctuations in carbon uptake by land ecosystems. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent temperature and water availability control the carbon balance of land ecosystems across spatial and temporal scales. Here we use empirical models based on eddy covariance data and process-based models to investigate the effect of changes in temperature and water availability on gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at local and global scales. We find that water availability is the dominant driver of the local interannual variability in GPP and TER. To a lesser extent this is true also for NEE at the local scale, but when integrated globally, temporal NEE variability is mostly driven by temperature fluctuations. We suggest that this apparent paradox can be explained by two compensatory water effects. Temporal water-driven GPP and TER variations compensate locally, dampening water-driven NEE variability. Spatial water availability anomalies also compensate, leaving a dominant temperature signal in the year-to-year fluctuations of the land carbon sink. These findings help to reconcile seemingly contradictory reports regarding the importance of temperature and water in controlling the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon balance. Our study indicates that spatial climate covariation drives the global carbon cycle response.
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| 8. |
- Kondo, Masayuki, et al.
(författare)
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Are Land-Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?
- 2022
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236. ; 36:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Southeast Asia is a region known for active land-use changes (LUC) over the past 60 years; yet, how trends in net CO2 uptake and release resulting from LUC activities (net LUC flux) have changed through past decades remains uncertain. The level of uncertainty in net LUC flux from process-based models is so high that it cannot be concluded that newer estimates are necessarily more reliable than older ones. Here, we examined net LUC flux estimates of Southeast Asia for the 1980s−2010s from older and newer sets of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations (TRENDY v2 and v7, respectively), and forcing data used for running those simulations, along with two book-keeping estimates (H&N and BLUE). These estimates yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions, such that TRENDY v2 and H&N showed a transition from increased emissions from the 1980s to 1990s to declining emissions in the 2000s, while TRENDY v7 and BLUE showed the opposite transition. We found that these contrasting transitions originated in the update of LUC forcing data, which reduced the loss of forest area during the 1990s. Further evaluation of remote sensing studies, atmospheric inversions, and the history of forestry and environmental policies in Southeast Asia supported the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter. However, whether LUC emissions continue to decline in Southeast Asia remains uncertain as key processes in recent years, such as conversion of peat forest to oil-palm plantation, are yet to be represented in the forcing data, suggesting a need for further revision.
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| 9. |
- Li, Wei, et al.
(författare)
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Land-use and land-cover change carbon emissions between 1901 and 2012 constrained by biomass observations
- 2017
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 14:22, s. 5053-5067
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to estimate CO2 emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) offers a new window to account for spatial and temporal details of emissions and for ecosystem processes affected by LULCC. One drawback of LULCC emissions from DGVMs, however, is lack of observation constraint. Here, we propose a new method of using satellite-and inventory-based biomass observations to constrain historical cumulative LULCC emissions (E-LUC(c)) from an ensemble of nine DGVMs based on emerging relationships between simulated vegetation biomass and E-LUC(c). This method is applicable on the global and regional scale. The original DGVM estimates of E-LUC(c) range from 94 to 273 PgC during 1901-2012. After constraining by current biomass observations, we derive a best estimate of 155 +/- 50 PgC (1 sigma Gaussian error). The constrained LULCC emissions are higher than prior DGVM values in tropical regions but significantly lower in North America. Our emergent constraint approach independently verifies the median model estimate by biomass observations, giving support to the use of this estimate in carbon budget assessments. The uncertainty in the constrained Ec LUC is still relatively large because of the uncertainty in the biomass observations, and thus reduced uncertainty in addition to increased accuracy in biomass observations in the future will help improve the constraint. This constraint method can also be applied to evaluate the impact of land-based mitigation activities.
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| 10. |
- Peng, Shushi, et al.
(författare)
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Benchmarking the seasonal cycle of CO2 fluxes simulated by terrestrial ecosystem models
- 2015
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236. ; 29:1, s. 46-64
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We evaluated the seasonality of CO2 fluxes simulated by nine terrestrial ecosystem models of the TRENDY project against (1) the seasonal cycle of gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) measured at flux tower sites over different biomes, (2) gridded monthly Model Tree Ensembles-estimated GPP (MTE-GPP) and MTE-NEE obtained by interpolating many flux tower measurements with a machine-learning algorithm, (3) atmospheric CO2 mole fraction measurements at surface sites, and (4) CO2 total columns (X-CO2) measurements from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). For comparison with atmospheric CO2 measurements, the LMDZ4 transport model was run with time-varying CO2 fluxes of each model as surface boundary conditions. Seven out of the nine models overestimate the seasonal amplitude of GPP and produce a too early start in spring at most flux sites. Despite their positive bias for GPP, the nine models underestimate NEE at most flux sites and in the Northern Hemisphere compared with MTE-NEE. Comparison with surface atmospheric CO2 measurements confirms that most models underestimate the seasonal amplitude of NEE in the Northern Hemisphere (except CLM4C and SDGVM). Comparison with TCCON data also shows that the seasonal amplitude of X-CO2 is underestimated by more than 10% for seven out of the nine models (except for CLM4C and SDGVM) and that the MTE-NEE product is closer to the TCCON data using LMDZ4. From CO2 columns measured routinely at 10 TCCON sites, the constrained amplitude of NEE over the Northern Hemisphere is of 1.60.4 gC m(-2)d(-1), which translates into a net CO2 uptake during the carbon uptake period in the Northern Hemisphere of 7.92.0 PgC yr(-1).
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| 11. |
- Piao, Shilong, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models for their response to climate variability and to CO2 trends
- 2013
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013. ; 19:7, s. 2117-2132
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process-based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux-tower-based estimates by Jung etal. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net primary productivity (NPP) apparent sensitivity to climate variability and atmospheric CO2 trends is diagnosed from each model output, using statistical functions. The temperature sensitivity is compared against ecosystem field warming experiments results. The CO2 sensitivity of NPP is compared to the results from four Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The simulated global net biome productivity (NBP) is compared with the residual land sink (RLS) of the global carbon budget from Friedlingstein etal. [Nature Geoscience 3 (2010) 811] (FR10). We found that models produce a higher GPP (133 +/- 15Pg Cyr-1) than JU11 (118 +/- 6Pg Cyr-1). In response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, modeled NPP increases on average by 16% (5-20%) per 100ppm, a slightly larger apparent sensitivity of NPP to CO2 than that measured at the FACE experiment locations (13% per 100ppm). Global NBP differs markedly among individual models, although the mean value of 2.0 +/- 0.8Pg Cyr-1 is remarkably close to the mean value of RLS (2.1 +/- 1.2 Pg Cyr-1). The interannual variability in modeled NBP is significantly correlated with that of RLS for the period 1980-2009. Both model-to-model and interannual variation in model GPP is larger than that in model NBP due to the strong coupling causing a positive correlation between ecosystem respiration and GPP in the model. The average linear regression slope of global NBP vs. temperature across the 10 models is -3.0 +/- 1.5Pg Cyr-1 degrees C-1, within the uncertainty of what derived from RLS (-3.9 +/- 1.1Pg Cyr-1 degrees C-1). However, 9 of 10 models overestimate the regression slope of NBP vs. precipitation, compared with the slope of the observed RLS vs. precipitation. With most models lacking processes that control GPP and NBP in addition to CO2 and climate, the agreement between modeled and observation-based GPP and NBP can be fortuitous. Carbon-nitrogen interactions (only separable in one model) significantly influence the simulated response of carbon cycle to temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration, suggesting that nutrients limitations should be included in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere models.
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| 12. |
- Piao, Shilong, et al.
(författare)
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Evidence for a weakening relationship between interannual temperature variability and northern vegetation activity.
- 2014
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a proxy of vegetation productivity, is known to be correlated with temperature in northern ecosystems. This relationship, however, may change over time following alternations in other environmental factors. Here we show that above 30°N, the strength of the relationship between the interannual variability of growing season NDVI and temperature (partial correlation coefficient RNDVI-GT) declined substantially between 1982 and 2011. This decrease in RNDVI-GT is mainly observed in temperate and arctic ecosystems, and is also partly reproduced by process-based ecosystem model results. In the temperate ecosystem, the decrease in RNDVI-GT coincides with an increase in drought. In the arctic ecosystem, it may be related to a nonlinear response of photosynthesis to temperature, increase of hot extreme days and shrub expansion over grass-dominated tundra. Our results caution the use of results from interannual time scales to constrain the decadal response of plants to ongoing warming.
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| 13. |
- Saunois, Marielle, et al.
(författare)
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The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017
- 2020
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3516 .- 1866-3508. ; 12:3, s. 1561-1623
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations).For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30∘ N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60∘ N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90∘ N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters.Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4 yr−1 lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4 yr−1 by 8 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.The data presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-CH4-2019 (Saunois et al., 2020) and from the Global Carbon Project.
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| 14. |
- Tardif, Delphine, et al.
(författare)
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Orbital variations as a major driver of climate and biome distribution during the greenhouse to icehouse transition
- 2021
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Ingår i: Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 7:43
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent studies suggest increasing sensitivity to orbital variations across the Eocene-Oligocene greenhouse to icehouse climate transition. However, climate simulations and paleoenvironmental studies mostly provide snapshots of the past climate, therefore overlooking the role of this short-term variability in driving major environmental changes and possibly biasing model-data comparisons. We address this problem by performing numerical simulations describing the end-members of eccentricity, obliquity, and precession. The orbitally induced biome variability obtained in our simulations allows to reconcile previous apparent mismatch between models and paleobotanical compilations. We show that precession-driven intermittent monsoon-like climate may have taken place during the Eocene, resulting in biomes shifting from shrubland to tropical forest in the intertropical convergence zone migration region. Our Oligocene simulations suggest that, along with decreased pCO2, orbital variations crucially modulated major faunal dispersal events around the EOT such as the Grande Coupure by creating and fragmenting the biome corridors along several key land bridges.
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| 15. |
- Yang, Hui, et al.
(författare)
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Multicriteria evaluation of discharge simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. - 2169-8996. ; 120:15, s. 7488-7505
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, we assessed the performance of discharge simulations by coupling the runoff from seven Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs; LPJ, ORCHIDEE, Sheffield-DGVM, TRIFFID, LPJ-GUESS, CLM4CN, and OCN) to one river routing model for 16 large river basins. The results show that the seasonal cycle of river discharge is generally modeled well in the low and middle latitudes but not in the high latitudes, where the peak discharge (due to snow and ice melting) is underestimated. For the annual mean discharge, the DGVMs chained with the routing model show an underestimation. Furthermore, the 30year trend of discharge is also underestimated. For the interannual variability of discharge, a skill score based on overlapping of probability density functions (PDFs) suggests that most models correctly reproduce the observed variability (correlation coefficient higher than 0.5; i.e., models account for 50% of observed interannual variability) except for the Lena, Yenisei, Yukon, and the Congo river basins. In addition, we compared the simulated runoff from different simulations where models were forced with either fixed or varying land use. This suggests that both seasonal and annual mean runoff has been little affected by land use change but that the trend itself of runoff is sensitive to land use change. None of the models when considered individually show significantly better performances than any other and in all basins. This suggests that based on current modeling capability, a regional-weighted average of multimodel ensemble projections might be appropriate to reduce the bias in future projection of global river discharge.
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