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- Aad, G, et al.
(författare)
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- 2015
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swepub:Mat__t
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- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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4. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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5. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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6. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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7. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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8. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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9. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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10. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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12. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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13. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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14. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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15. |
- Kattge, Jens, et al.
(författare)
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TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26:1, s. 119-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.
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16. |
- Kehoe, Laura, et al.
(författare)
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Make EU trade with Brazil sustainable
- 2019
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 364:6438, s. 341-
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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17. |
- Lehtipalo, Katrianne, et al.
(författare)
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Multicomponent new particle formation from sulfuric acid, ammonia, and biogenic vapors
- 2018
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Ingår i: Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 4:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A major fraction of atmospheric aerosol particles, which affect both air quality and climate, form from gaseous precursors in the atmosphere. Highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs), formed by oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds, are known to participate in particle formation and growth. However, it is not well understood how they interact with atmospheric pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulfur oxides (SOx) from fossil fuel combustion, as well as ammonia (NH3) from livestock and fertilizers. Here, we show how NOx suppresses particle formation, while HOMs, sulfuric acid, and NH3 have a synergistic enhancing effect on particle formation. We postulate a novel mechanism, involving HOMs, sulfuric acid, and ammonia, which is able to closely reproduce observations of particle formation and growth in daytime boreal forest and similar environments. The findings elucidate the complex interactions between biogenic and anthropogenic vapors in the atmospheric aerosol system.
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18. |
- Menkveld, Albert J., et al.
(författare)
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Nonstandard Errors
- 2024
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Ingår i: JOURNAL OF FINANCE. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261. ; 79:3, s. 2339-2390
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty-nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
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19. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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20. |
- Tobias, Deirdre K, et al.
(författare)
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Second international consensus report on gaps and opportunities for the clinical translation of precision diabetes medicine
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Medicine. - 1546-170X. ; 29:10, s. 2438-2457
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Precision medicine is part of the logical evolution of contemporary evidence-based medicine that seeks to reduce errors and optimize outcomes when making medical decisions and health recommendations. Diabetes affects hundreds of millions of people worldwide, many of whom will develop life-threatening complications and die prematurely. Precision medicine can potentially address this enormous problem by accounting for heterogeneity in the etiology, clinical presentation and pathogenesis of common forms of diabetes and risks of complications. This second international consensus report on precision diabetes medicine summarizes the findings from a systematic evidence review across the key pillars of precision medicine (prevention, diagnosis, treatment, prognosis) in four recognized forms of diabetes (monogenic, gestational, type 1, type 2). These reviews address key questions about the translation of precision medicine research into practice. Although not complete, owing to the vast literature on this topic, they revealed opportunities for the immediate or near-term clinical implementation of precision diabetes medicine; furthermore, we expose important gaps in knowledge, focusing on the need to obtain new clinically relevant evidence. Gaps include the need for common standards for clinical readiness, including consideration of cost-effectiveness, health equity, predictive accuracy, liability and accessibility. Key milestones are outlined for the broad clinical implementation of precision diabetes medicine.
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21. |
- Beal, Jacob, et al.
(författare)
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Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density
- 2020
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Ingår i: Communications Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2399-3642. ; 3:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals <1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data.
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22. |
- Danaei, Goodarz, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of diabetes definition on global surveillance of diabetes prevalence and diagnosis: a pooled analysis of 96 population-based studies with 331288 participants
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - 2213-8595 .- 2213-8587. ; 3:8, s. 624-637
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Diabetes has been defined on the basis of different biomarkers, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT), and HbA(1c). We assessed the effect of different diagnostic definitions on both the population prevalence of diabetes and the classification of previously undiagnosed individuals as having diabetes versus not having diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examination surveys in different regions. Methods We used data from 96 population-based health examination surveys that had measured at least two of the biomarkers used for defining diabetes. Diabetes was defined using HbA(1c) (HbA(1c) >= 6 . 5% or history of diabetes diagnosis or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs) compared with either FPG only or FPG-or-2hOGTT definitions (FPG >= 7 . 0 mmol/L or 2hOGTT >= 11 . 1 mmol/L or history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated diabetes prevalence, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights. We compared the prevalences of diabetes using different definitions graphically and by regression analyses. We calculated sensitivity and specificity of diabetes diagnosis based on HbA1c compared with diagnosis based on glucose among previously undiagnosed individuals (ie, excluding those with history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated sensitivity and specificity in each survey, and then pooled results using a random-effects model. We assessed the sources of heterogeneity of sensitivity by meta-regressions for study characteristics selected a priori. Findings Population prevalence of diabetes based on FPG- or-2hOGTT was correlated with prevalence based on FPG alone (r= 0 . 98), but was higher by 2-6 percentage points at different prevalence levels. Prevalence based on HbA(1c) was lower than prevalence based on FPG in 42 . 8% of age-sex-survey groups and higher in another 41 . 6%; in the other 15 . 6%, the two definitions provided similar prevalence estimates. The variation across studies in the relation between glucose-based and HbA(1c)-based prevalences was partly related to participants' age, followed by natural logarithm of per person gross domestic product, the year of survey, mean BMI, and whether the survey population was national, subnational, or from specific communities. Diabetes defined as HbA(1c) 6 . 5% or more had a pooled sensitivity of 52 . 8% (95% CI 51 . 3-54 . 3%) and a pooled specificity of 99 . 74% (99 . 71-99 . 78%) compared with FPG 7 . 0 mmol/L or more for diagnosing previously undiagnosed participants; sensitivity compared with diabetes defined based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was 30 . 5% (28 . 7-32 . 3%). None of the preselected study-level characteristics explained the heterogeneity in the sensitivity of HbA(1c) versus FPG. Interpretation Different biomarkers and definitions for diabetes can provide different estimates of population prevalence of diabetes, and differentially identify people without previous diagnosis as having diabetes. Using an HbA(1c)-based definition alone in health surveys will not identify a substantial proportion of previously undiagnosed people who would be considered as having diabetes using a glucose-based test.
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23. |
- Wagner, Robert, et al.
(författare)
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The role of ions in new particle formation in the CLOUD chamber
- 2017
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 17:24, s. 15181-15197
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The formation of secondary particles in the atmosphere accounts for more than half of global cloud condensation nuclei. Experiments at the CERN CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets) chamber have underlined the importance of ions for new particle formation, but quantifying their effect in the atmosphere remains challenging. By using a novel instrument setup consisting of two nanoparticle counters, one of them equipped with an ion filter, we were able to further investigate the ion-related mechanisms of new particle formation. In autumn 2015, we carried out experiments at CLOUD on four systems of different chemical compositions involving monoterpenes, sulfuric acid, nitrogen oxides, and ammonia. We measured the influence of ions on the nucleation rates under precisely controlled and atmospherically relevant conditions. Our results indicate that ions enhance the nucleation process when the charge is necessary to stabilize newly formed clusters, i.e., in conditions in which neutral clusters are unstable. For charged clusters that were formed by ion-induced nucleation, we were able to measure, for the first time, their progressive neutralization due to recombination with oppositely charged ions. A large fraction of the clusters carried a charge at 1.5 nm diameter. However, depending on particle growth rates and ion concentrations, charged clusters were largely neutralized by ion-ion recombination before they grew to 2.5 nm. At this size, more than 90% of particles were neutral. In other words, particles may originate from ion-induced nucleation, although they are neutral upon detection at diameters larger than 2.5 nm. Observations at Hyytiala, Finland, showed lower ion concentrations and a lower contribution of ion-induced nucleation than measured at CLOUD under similar conditions. Although this can be partly explained by the observation that ion-induced fractions decrease towards lower ion concentrations, further investigations are needed to resolve the origin of the discrepancy.
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24. |
- Zhou, Bin, et al.
(författare)
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Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10027, s. 1513-1530
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes.Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4372000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-17.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
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25. |
- Kirkby, Jasper, et al.
(författare)
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Ion-induced nucleation of pure biogenic particles
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 533:7604, s. 521-526
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Atmospheric aerosols and their effect on clouds are thought to be important for anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate, yet remain poorly understood(1). Globally, around half of cloud condensation nuclei originate from nucleation of atmospheric vapours(2). It is thought that sulfuric acid is essential to initiate most particle formation in the atmosphere(3,4), and that ions have a relatively minor role(5). Some laboratory studies, however, have reported organic particle formation without the intentional addition of sulfuric acid, although contamination could not be excluded(6,7). Here we present evidence for the formation of aerosol particles from highly oxidized biogenic vapours in the absence of sulfuric acid in a large chamber under atmospheric conditions. The highly oxygenated molecules (HOMs) are produced by ozonolysis of a-pinene. We find that ions from Galactic cosmic rays increase the nucleation rate by one to two orders of magnitude compared with neutral nucleation. Our experimental findings are supported by quantum chemical calculations of the cluster binding energies of representative HOMs. Ion-induced nucleation of pure organic particles constitutes a potentially widespread source of aerosol particles in terrestrial environments with low sulfuric acid pollution.
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26. |
- Kyu, Hmwe H, et al.
(författare)
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Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013 : Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study.
- 2016
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Ingår i: JAMA pediatrics. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6203 .- 2168-6211. ; 170:3, s. 267-287
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce.OBJECTIVE: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study.EVIDENCE REVIEW: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates.FINDINGS: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810 304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.
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27. |
- Nie, Wei, et al.
(författare)
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NO at low concentration can enhance the formation of highly oxygenated biogenic molecules in the atmosphere
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - Malmö : IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet AB. - 2041-1723. ; 14:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The interaction between nitrogen monoxide (NO) and organic peroxy radicals (RO2) greatly impacts the formation of highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOM), the key precursors of secondary organic aerosols. It has been thought that HOM production can be significantly suppressed by NO even at low concentrations. Here, we perform dedicated experiments focusing on HOM formation from monoterpenes at low NO concentrations (0 – 82 pptv). We demonstrate that such low NO can enhance HOM production by modulating the RO2 loss and favoring the formation of alkoxy radicals that can continue to autoxidize through isomerization.These insights suggest that HOM yields from typical boreal forest emissions can vary between 2.5%-6.5%, and HOM formation will not be completely inhibited even at high NO concentrations. Our findings challenge the notion that NO monotonically reduces HOM yields by extending the knowledge of RO2-NO interactions to the low-NO regime. This represents a major advance towards an accurate assessment of HOM budgets, especially in low-NO environments, which prevails in the preindustrial atmosphere, pristine areas, and the upper boundary layer.
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28. |
- Brum, Wagner S., et al.
(författare)
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A two-step workflow based on plasma p-tau217 to screen for amyloid β positivity with further confirmatory testing only in uncertain cases
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Aging. - 2662-8465. ; 3:9, s. 1079-1090
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cost-effective strategies for identifying amyloid-beta (A beta) positivity in patients with cognitive impairment are urgently needed with recent approvals of anti-A beta immunotherapies for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Blood biomarkers can accurately detect AD pathology, but it is unclear whether their incorporation into a full diagnostic workflow can reduce the number of confirmatory cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) or positron emission tomography (PET) tests needed while accurately classifying patients. We evaluated a two-step workflow for determining A beta-PET status in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) from two independent memory clinic-based cohorts (n = 348). A blood-based model including plasma tau protein 217 (p-tau217), age and APOE epsilon 4 status was developed in BioFINDER-1 (area under the curve (AUC) = 89.3%) and validated in BioFINDER-2 (AUC = 94.3%). In step 1, the blood-based model was used to stratify the patients into low, intermediate or high risk of A beta-PET positivity. In step 2, we assumed referral only of intermediate-risk patients to CSF A beta 42/A beta 40 testing, whereas step 1 alone determined A beta-status for low-and high-risk groups. Depending on whether lenient, moderate or stringent thresholds were used in step 1, the two-step workflow overall accuracy for detecting A beta-PET status was 88.2%, 90.5% and 92.0%, respectively, while reducing the number of necessary CSF tests by 85.9%, 72.7% and 61.2%, respectively. In secondary analyses, an adapted version of the BioFINDER-1 model led to successful validation of the two-step workflow with a different plasma p-tau217 immunoassay in patients with cognitive impairment from the TRIAD cohort (n = 84). In conclusion, using a plasma p-tau217-based model for risk stratification of patients with MCI can substantially reduce the need for confirmatory testing while accurately classifying patients, offering a cost-effective strategy to detect AD in memory clinic settings.
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29. |
- Therriault, Joseph, et al.
(författare)
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Association of Phosphorylated Tau Biomarkers With Amyloid Positron Emission Tomography vs Tau Positron Emission Tomography.
- 2022
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Ingår i: JAMA neurology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6157 .- 2168-6149. ; 80:2, s. 188-99
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The recent proliferation of phosphorylated tau (p-tau) biomarkers has raised questions about their preferential association with the hallmark pathologies of Alzheimer disease (AD): amyloid-β plaques and tau neurofibrillary tangles.To determine whether cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and plasma p-tau biomarkers preferentially reflect cerebral β-amyloidosis or neurofibrillary tangle aggregation measured with positron emission tomography (PET).This was a cross-sectional study of 2 observational cohorts: the Translational Biomarkers in Aging and Dementia (TRIAD) study, with data collected between October 2017 and August 2021, and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), with data collected between September 2015 and November 2019. TRIAD was a single-center study, and ADNI was a multicenter study. Two independent subsamples were derived from TRIAD. The first TRIAD subsample comprised individuals assessed with CSF p-tau (p-tau181, p-tau217, p-tau231, p-tau235), [18F]AZD4694 amyloid PET, and [18F]MK6240 tau PET. The second TRIAD subsample included individuals assessed with plasma p-tau (p-tau181, p-tau217, p-tau231), [18F]AZD4694 amyloid PET, and [18F]MK6240 tau PET. An independent cohort from ADNI comprised individuals assessed with CSF p-tau181, [18F]florbetapir PET, and [18F]flortaucipir PET. Participants were included based on the availability of p-tau and PET biomarker assessments collected within 9 months of each other. Exclusion criteria were a history of head trauma or magnetic resonance imaging/PET safety contraindications. No participants who met eligibility criteria were excluded.Amyloid PET, tau PET, and CSF and plasma assessments of p-tau measured with single molecule array (Simoa) assay or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.Associations between p-tau biomarkers with amyloid PET and tau PET.A total of 609 participants (mean [SD] age, 66.9 [13.6] years; 347 female [57%]; 262 male [43%]) were included in the study. For all 4 phosphorylation sites assessed in CSF, p-tau was significantly more closely associated with amyloid-PET values than tau-PET values (p-tau181 difference, 13%; 95% CI, 3%-22%; P=.006; p-tau217 difference, 11%; 95% CI, 3%-20%; P=.003; p-tau231 difference, 15%; 95% CI, 5%-22%; P<.001; p-tau235 difference, 9%; 95% CI, 1%-19%; P=.02) . These results were replicated with plasma p-tau181 (difference, 11%; 95% CI, 1%-22%; P=.02), p-tau217 (difference, 9%; 95% CI, 1%-19%; P=.02), p-tau231 (difference, 13%; 95% CI, 3%-24%; P=.009), and CSF p-tau181 (difference, 9%; 95% CI, 1%-21%; P=.02) in independent cohorts.Results of this cross-sectional study of 2 observational cohorts suggest that the p-tau abnormality as an early event in AD pathogenesis was associated with amyloid-β accumulation and highlights the need for careful interpretation of p-tau biomarkers in the context of the amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration, or A/T/(N), framework.
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30. |
- Tröstl, Jasmin, et al.
(författare)
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The role of low-volatility organic compounds in initial particle growth in the atmosphere
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 533:7604, s. 527-531
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- About half of present-day cloud condensation nuclei originate from atmospheric nucleation, frequently appearing as a burst of new particles near midday(1). Atmospheric observations show that the growth rate of new particles often accelerates when the diameter of the particles is between one and ten nanometres(2,3). In this critical size range, new particles are most likely to be lost by coagulation with pre-existing particles(4), thereby failing to form new cloud condensation nuclei that are typically 50 to 100 nanometres across. Sulfuric acid vapour is often involved in nucleation but is too scarce to explain most subsequent growth(5,6), leaving organic vapours as the most plausible alternative, at least in the planetary boundary layer(7-10). Although recent studies(11-13) predict that low-volatility organic vapours contribute during initial growth, direct evidence has been lacking. The accelerating growth may result from increased photolytic production of condensable organic species in the afternoon(2), and the presence of a possible Kelvin (curvature) effect, which inhibits organic vapour condensation on the smallest particles (the nano-Kohler theory)(2,14), has so far remained ambiguous. Here we present experiments performed in a large chamber under atmospheric conditions that investigate the role of organic vapours in the initial growth of nucleated organic particles in the absence of inorganic acids and bases such as sulfuric acid or ammonia and amines, respectively. Using data from the same set of experiments, it has been shown(15) that organic vapours alone can drive nucleation. We focus on the growth of nucleated particles and find that the organic vapours that drive initial growth have extremely low volatilities (saturation concentration less than 10(-4.5) micrograms per cubic metre). As the particles increase in size and the Kelvin barrier falls, subsequent growth is primarily due to more abundant organic vapours of slightly higher volatility (saturation concentrations of 10(-4.5) to 10(-0.5) micrograms per cubic metre). We present a particle growth model that quantitatively reproduces our measurements. Furthermore, we implement a parameterization of the first steps of growth in a global aerosol model and find that concentrations of atmospheric cloud concentration nuclei can change substantially in response, that is, by up to 50 per cent in comparison with previously assumed growth rate parameterizations.
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31. |
- Wang, Mingyi, et al.
(författare)
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Rapid growth of new atmospheric particles by nitric acid and ammonia condensation
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 581:7807, s. 184-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A list of authors and their affiliations appears at the end of the paper New-particle formation is a major contributor to urban smog(1,2), but how it occurs in cities is often puzzling(3). If the growth rates of urban particles are similar to those found in cleaner environments (1-10 nanometres per hour), then existing understanding suggests that new urban particles should be rapidly scavenged by the high concentration of pre-existing particles. Here we show, through experiments performed under atmospheric conditions in the CLOUD chamber at CERN, that below about +5 degrees Celsius, nitric acid and ammonia vapours can condense onto freshly nucleated particles as small as a few nanometres in diameter. Moreover, when it is cold enough (below -15 degrees Celsius), nitric acid and ammonia can nucleate directly through an acid-base stabilization mechanism to form ammonium nitrate particles. Given that these vapours are often one thousand times more abundant than sulfuric acid, the resulting particle growth rates can be extremely high, reaching well above 100 nanometres per hour. However, these high growth rates require the gas-particle ammonium nitrate system to be out of equilibrium in order to sustain gas-phase supersaturations. In view of the strong temperature dependence that we measure for the gas-phase supersaturations, we expect such transient conditions to occur in inhomogeneous urban settings, especially in wintertime, driven by vertical mixing and by strong local sources such as traffic. Even though rapid growth from nitric acid and ammonia condensation may last for only a few minutes, it is nonetheless fast enough to shepherd freshly nucleated particles through the smallest size range where they are most vulnerable to scavenging loss, thus greatly increasing their survival probability. We also expect nitric acid and ammonia nucleation and rapid growth to be important in the relatively clean and cold upper free troposphere, where ammonia can be convected from the continental boundary layer and nitric acid is abundant from electrical storms(4,5).
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32. |
- Bott, Lukas Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Coulomb dissociation of O-16 into He-4 and C-12
- 2023
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Ingår i: NUCLEAR PHYSICS IN ASTROPHYSICS - X, NPA-X 2022. - : EDP Sciences. - 2100-014X. ; 279
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We measured the Coulomb dissociation of O-16 into He-4 and C-12 within the FAIR Phase-0 program at GSI Helmholtzzentrum fur Schwerionenforschung Darmstadt, Germany. From this we will extract the photon dissociation cross section O-16(alpha,gamma)C-12, which is the time reversed reaction to C-12(alpha,gamma)O-16. With this indirect method, we aim to improve on the accuracy of the experimental data at lower energies than measured so far. The expected low cross section for the Coulomb dissociation reaction and close magnetic rigidity of beam and fragments demand a high precision measurement. Hence, new detector systems were built and radical changes to the (RB)-B-3 setup were necessary to cope with the high-intensity O-16 beam. All tracking detectors were designed to let the unreacted O-16 ions pass, while detecting the C-12 and He-4.
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33. |
- Ferrari-Souza, J. P., et al.
(författare)
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Astrocyte biomarker signatures of amyloid-beta and tau pathologies in Alzheimer's disease
- 2022
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Ingår i: Molecular Psychiatry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1359-4184 .- 1476-5578. ; 27:11, s. 4781-4789
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Astrocytes can adopt multiple molecular phenotypes in the brain of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. Here, we studied the associations of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and chitinase-3-like protein 1 (YKL-40) levels with brain amyloid-beta (A beta) and tau pathologies. We assessed 121 individuals across the aging and AD clinical spectrum with positron emission tomography (PET) brain imaging for A beta ([F-18]AZD4694) and tau ([F-18]MK-6240), as well as CSF GFAP and YKL-40 measures. We observed that higher CSF GFAP levels were associated with elevated A beta-PET but not tau-PET load. By contrast, higher CSF YKL-40 levels were associated with elevated tau-PET but not A beta-PET burden. Structural equation modeling revealed that CSF GFAP and YKL-40 mediate the effects of A beta and tau, respectively, on hippocampal atrophy, which was further associated with cognitive impairment. Our results suggest the existence of distinct astrocyte biomarker signatures in response to brain A beta and tau accumulation, which may contribute to our understanding of the complex link between reactive astrogliosis heterogeneity and AD progression.
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34. |
- Lantero Rodriguez, Juan, et al.
(författare)
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Plasma and CSF concentrations of N-terminal tau fragments associate with in vivo neurofibrillary tangle burden
- 2023
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Ingår i: Alzheimers & Dementia. - 1552-5260. ; 19:12, s. 5343-5354
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- INTRODUCTIONFluid biomarkers capable of specifically tracking tau tangle pathology in vivo are greatly needed. METHODSWe measured cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and plasma concentrations of N-terminal tau fragments (NTA-tau), using a novel immunoassay (NTA) in the TRIAD cohort, consisting of 272 individuals assessed with amyloid beta (A beta) positron emission tomography (PET), tau PET, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and cognitive assessments. RESULTSCSF and plasma NTA-tau concentrations were specifically increased in cognitively impaired A beta-positive groups. CSF and plasma NTA-tau concentrations displayed stronger correlations with tau PET than with A beta PET and MRI, both in global uptake and at the voxel level. Regression models demonstrated that both CSF and plasma NTA-tau are preferentially associated with tau pathology. Moreover, plasma NTA-tau was associated with longitudinal tau PET accumulation across the aging and Alzheimer's disease (AD) spectrum. DISCUSSIONNTA-tau is a biomarker closely associated with in vivo tau deposition in the AD continuum and has potential as a tau tangle biomarker in clinical settings and trials. HIGHLIGHTSAn assay for detecting N-terminal tau fragments (NTA-tau) in plasma and CSF was evaluated.NTA-tau is more closely associated with tau PET than amyloid PET or neurodegeneration.NTA-tau can successfully track in vivo tau deposition across the AD continuum.Plasma NTA-tau increased over time only in cognitively impaired amyloid-beta positive individuals.
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35. |
- Montoliu-Gaya, Laia, et al.
(författare)
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Mass spectrometric simultaneous quantification of tau species in plasma shows differential associations with amyloid and tau pathologies
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Aging. - 2662-8465. ; 3:6, s. 661-669
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Blood phosphorylated tau (p-tau) biomarkers, at differing sites, demonstrate high accuracy to detect Alzheimer & apos;s disease (AD). However, knowledge on the optimal marker for disease identification across the AD continuum and the link to pathology is limited. This is partly due to heterogeneity in analytical methods. In this study, we employed an immunoprecipitation mass spectrometry method to simultaneously quantify six phosphorylated (p-tau181, p-tau199, p-tau202, p-tau205, p-tau217 and p-tau231) and two non-phosphorylated plasma tau peptides in a total of 214 participants from the Paris Lariboisiere and Translational Biomarkers of Aging and Dementia cohorts. Our results indicate that p-tau217, p-tau231 and p-tau205 are the plasma tau forms that best reflect AD-related brain changes, although with distinct emergences along the disease course and correlations with AD features-amyloid and tau. These findings support the differential association of blood p-tau variants with AD pathology, and our method offers a potential tool for disease staging in clinical trials. A mass spectrometric analysis of plasma tau species identifies phosphorylated tau peptides p-tau217, p-tau231 and p-tau205 with distinct correlations with amyloid and tau pathologies and emergences along the AD continuum.
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36. |
- Wu, Chuanyan, et al.
(författare)
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Elevated circulating follistatin associates with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12, s. 1-10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The hepatokine follistatin is elevated in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and promotes hyperglycemia in mice. Here we explore the relationship of plasma follistatin levels with incident T2D and mechanisms involved. Adjusted hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD) increase in follistatin levels for T2D is 1.24 (CI: 1.04-1.47, p < 0.05) during 19-year follow-up (n = 4060, Sweden); and 1.31 (CI: 1.09-1.58, p < 0.01) during 4-year follow-up (n = 883, Finland). High circulating follistatin associates with adipose tissue insulin resistance and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (n = 210, Germany). In human adipocytes, follistatin dose-dependently increases free fatty acid release. In genome-wide association study (GWAS), variation in the glucokinase regulatory protein gene (GCKR) associates with plasma follistatin levels (n = 4239, Sweden; n = 885, UK, Italy and Sweden) and GCKR regulates follistatin secretion in hepatocytes in vitro. Our findings suggest that GCKR regulates follistatin secretion and that elevated circulating follistatin associates with an increased risk of T2D by inducing adipose tissue insulin resistance.
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37. |
- Ashton, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Cerebrospinal fluid p-tau231 as an early indicator of emerging pathology in Alzheimer's disease
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ebiomedicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 2352-3964. ; 76
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Phosphorylated tau (p-tau) epitopes in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) are accurate biomarkers for a pathological and clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and are seen to be increased in preclinical stage of the disease. However, it is unknown if these increases transpire earlier, prior to amyloid-beta (Aβ) positivity as determined by position emission tomography (PET), and if an ordinal sequence of p-tau epitopes occurs at this incipient phase Methods: We measured CSF concentrations of p-tau181, p-tau217 and p-tau231 in 171 participants across the AD continuum who had undergone Aβ ([18F]AZD4694) and tau ([18F]MK6240) position emission tomography (PET) and clinical assessment Findings: All CSF p-tau biomarkers were accurate predictors of cognitive impairment but CSF p-tau217 demonstrated the largest fold-changes in AD patients in comparison to non-AD dementias and cognitively unimpaired individuals. CSF p-tau231 and p-tau217 predicted Aβ and tau to a similar degree but p-tau231 attained abnormal levels first. P-tau231 was sensitive to the earliest changes of Aβ in the medial orbitofrontal, precuneus and posterior cingulate before global Aβ PET positivity was reached Interpretation: We demonstrate that CSF p-tau231 increases early in development of AD pathology and is a principal candidate for detecting incipient Aβ pathology for therapeutic trial application Funding: Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR), Canadian Consortium of Neurodegeneration and Aging, Weston Brain Institute, Brain Canada Foundation, the Fonds de Recherche du Québec. © 2022
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38. |
- Ashton, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Plasma and CSF biomarkers in a memory clinic: Head-to-head comparison of phosphorylated tau immunoassays
- 2023
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Ingår i: Alzheimers & Dementia. - : Wiley. - 1552-5260 .- 1552-5279. ; 19:5, s. 1913-1924
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction Direct comparisons of the main blood phosphorylated tau immunoassays in memory clinic populations are needed to understand possible differences. Methods In the BIODEGMAR study, 197 participants presenting with cognitive complaints were classified into an Alzheimer's disease (AD) or a non-AD cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) profile group, according to their amyloid beta 42/ phosphorylated tau (A beta 42/p-tau) ratio. We performed a head-to-head comparison of nine plasma and nine CSF tau immunoassays and determined their accuracy to discriminate abnormal CSF A beta 42/p-tau ratio. Results All studied plasma tau biomarkers were significantly higher in the AD CSF profile group compared to the non-AD CSF profile group and significantly discriminated abnormal CSF A beta 42/p-tau ratio. For plasma p-tau biomarkers, the higher discrimination accuracy was shown by Janssen p-tau217 (r = 0.76; area under the curve [AUC] = 0.96), ADx p-tau181 (r = 0.73; AUC = 0.94), and Lilly p-tau217 (r = 0.73; AUC = 0.94). Discussion Several plasma p-tau biomarkers can be used in a specialized memory clinic as a stand-alone biomarker to detect biologically-defined AD. Highlights Patients with an Alzheimer's disease cerebrospinal fluid (AD CSF) profile have higher plasma phosphorylated tau (p-tau) levels than the non-AD CSF profile group. All plasma p-tau biomarkers significantly discriminate patients with an AD CSF profile from the non-AD CSF profile group. Janssen p-tau217, ADx p-tau181, and Lilly p-tau217 in plasma show the highest accuracy to detect biologically defined AD. Janssen p-tau217, ADx p-tau181, Lilly p-tau217, Lilly p-tau181, and UGot p-tau231 in plasma show performances that are comparable to their CSF counterparts.
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39. |
- Barrat, Jean-Louis, et al.
(författare)
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Soft matter roadmap
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Physics. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 2515-7639. ; 7:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Soft materials are usually defined as materials made of mesoscopic entities, often self-organised, sensitive to thermal fluctuations and to weak perturbations. Archetypal examples are colloids, polymers, amphiphiles, liquid crystals, foams. The importance of soft materials in everyday commodity products, as well as in technological applications, is enormous, and controlling or improving their properties is the focus of many efforts. From a fundamental perspective, the possibility of manipulating soft material properties, by tuning interactions between constituents and by applying external perturbations, gives rise to an almost unlimited variety in physical properties. Together with the relative ease to observe and characterise them, this renders soft matter systems powerful model systems to investigate statistical physics phenomena, many of them relevant as well to hard condensed matter systems. Understanding the emerging properties from mesoscale constituents still poses enormous challenges, which have stimulated a wealth of new experimental approaches, including the synthesis of new systems with, e.g. tailored self-assembling properties, or novel experimental techniques in imaging, scattering or rheology. Theoretical and numerical methods, and coarse-grained models, have become central to predict physical properties of soft materials, while computational approaches that also use machine learning tools are playing a progressively major role in many investigations. This Roadmap intends to give a broad overview of recent and possible future activities in the field of soft materials, with experts covering various developments and challenges in material synthesis and characterisation, instrumental, simulation and theoretical methods as well as general concepts.
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40. |
- Baumeister, Hannah, et al.
(författare)
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A generalizable data-driven model of atrophy heterogeneity and progression in memory clinic settings
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Ingår i: Brain : a journal of neurology. - 1460-2156. ; 147:7, s. 2400-2413
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Memory clinic patients are a heterogeneous population representing various aetiologies of pathological aging. It is unknown if divergent spatiotemporal progression patterns of brain atrophy, as previously described in Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients, are prevalent and clinically meaningful in this group of older adults. To uncover distinct atrophy subtypes, we applied the Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) algorithm to baseline structural MRI data from 813 participants enrolled in the DELCODE cohort (mean ± SD age = 70.67 ± 6.07 years, 52% females). Participants were cognitively unimpaired (CU; n = 285) or fulfilled diagnostic criteria for subjective cognitive decline (SCD; n = 342), mild cognitive impairment (MCI; n = 118), or dementia of the Alzheimer's type (n = 68). Atrophy subtypes were compared in baseline demographics, fluid AD biomarker levels, the Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite (PACC-5), as well as episodic memory and executive functioning. PACC-5 trajectories over up to 240 weeks were examined. To test if baseline atrophy subtype and stage predicted clinical trajectories before manifest cognitive impairment, we analysed PACC-5 trajectories and MCI conversion rates of CU and SCD participants. Limbic-predominant and hippocampal-sparing atrophy subtypes were identified. Limbic-predominant atrophy first affected the medial temporal lobes, followed by further temporal and, finally, the remaining cortical regions. At baseline, this subtype was related to older age, more pathological AD biomarker levels, APOE ε4 carriership, and an amnestic cognitive impairment. Hippocampal-sparing atrophy initially occurred outside the temporal lobe with the medial temporal lobe spared up to advanced atrophy stages. This atrophy pattern also affected individuals with positive AD biomarkers and was associated with more generalised cognitive impairment. Limbic-predominant atrophy, in all and in only unimpaired participants, was linked to more negative longitudinal PACC-5 slopes than observed in participants without or with hippocampal-sparing atrophy and increased the risk of MCI conversion. SuStaIn modelling was repeated in a sample from the Swedish BioFINDER-2 cohort. Highly similar atrophy progression patterns and associated cognitive profiles were identified. Cross-cohort model generalizability, both on the subject and group level, were excellent, indicating reliable performance in previously unseen data. The proposed model is a promising tool for capturing heterogeneity among older adults at early at-risk states for AD in applied settings. The implementation of atrophy subtype- and stage-specific end-points may increase the statistical power of pharmacological trials targeting early AD.
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41. |
- De Bastiani, Marco Antônio, et al.
(författare)
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Hippocampal GFAP-positive astrocyte responses to amyloid and tau pathologies.
- 2023
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Ingår i: Brain, behavior, and immunity. - : Elsevier BV. - 1090-2139 .- 0889-1591. ; 110, s. 175-184
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In Alzheimer's disease clinical research, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) released/leaked into the cerebrospinal fluid and blood is widely measured and perceived as a biomarker of reactive astrogliosis. However, it was demonstrated that GFAP levels differ in individuals presenting with amyloid-β (Aβ) or tau pathologies. The molecular underpinnings behind this specificity are little explored. Here we investigated biomarker and transcriptomic associations of hippocampal GFAP-positive astrocytes with Aβ and tau pathologies in humans and mouse models.We studied 90 individuals with plasma GFAP, Aβ- and Tau-PET to investigate the association between biomarkers. Then, transcriptomic analysis in hippocampal GFAP-positive astrocytes isolated from mouse models presenting Aβ (PS2APP) or tau (P301S) pathologies was conducted to explore differentially expressed genes (DEGs), Gene Ontology terms, and protein-protein interaction networks associated with each phenotype.In humans, we found that plasma GFAP associates with Aβ but not tau pathology. Unveiling the unique nature of hippocampal GFAP-positive astrocytic responses to Aβ or tau pathologies, mouse transcriptomics showed scarce overlap of DEGs between the Aβ. and tau mouse models. While Aβ GFAP-positive astrocytes were overrepresented with DEGs associated with proteostasis and exocytosis-related processes, tau hippocampal GFAP-positive astrocytes presented greater abnormalities in functions related to DNA/RNA processing and cytoskeleton dynamics.Our results offer insights into Aβ- and tau-driven specific signatures in hippocampal GFAP-positive astrocytes. Characterizing how different underlying pathologies distinctly influence astrocyte responses is critical for the biological interpretation of astrocyte biomarkers and suggests the need to develop context-specific astrocyte targets to study AD.This study was supported by Instituto Serrapilheira, Alzheimer's Association, CAPES, CNPq and FAPERGS.
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42. |
- Ferrari-Souza, Joao Pedro, et al.
(författare)
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Vascular risk burden is a key player in the early progression of Alzheimer's disease
- 2024
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Ingår i: NEUROBIOLOGY OF AGING. - 0197-4580 .- 1558-1497. ; 136, s. 88-98
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding whether vascular risk factors (VRFs) synergistically potentiate Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression is important in the context of emerging treatments for preclinical AD. In a group of 503 cognitively unimpaired individuals, we tested whether VRF burden interacts with AD pathophysiology to accelerate neurodegeneration and cognitive decline. Baseline VRF burden was calculated considering medical data and AD pathophysiology was assessed based on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) amyloid-beta 1-42 (A beta 1-42) and tau phosphorylated at threonine 181 (p-tau181). Neurodegeneration was assessed with plasma neurofilament light (NfL) and global cognition with the modified version of the Preclinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite. The mean (SD) age of participants was 72.9 (6.1) years, and 220 (43.7%) were men. Linear mixed-effects models revealed that an elevated VRF burden synergistically interacted with AD pathophysiology to drive longitudinal plasma NfL increase and cognitive decline. Additionally, VRF burden was not associated with CSF A beta 1-42or p-tau181 changes over time. Our results suggest that VRF burden and AD pathophysiology are independent processes; however, they synergistically lead to neurodegeneration and cognitive deterioration. In preclinical stages, the combination of therapies targeting VRFs and AD pathophysiology might potentiate treatment outcomes.
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43. |
- Ferreira, Pamela C. L., et al.
(författare)
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Endocannabinoid System Biomarkers in Alzheimer's Disease
- 2023
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Ingår i: CANNABIS AND CANNABINOID RESEARCH. - : Mary Ann Liebert Inc. - 2578-5125 .- 2378-8763. ; 8:1, s. 77-91
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alterations in the endocannabinoid system (ES) have been described in Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathophysiology. In the past years, multiple ES biomarkers have been developed, promising to advance our understanding of ES changes in AD.Discussion: ES biomarkers, including positron emission tomography with cannabinoid receptors tracers and biofluid-based endocannabinoids, are associated with AD disease progression and pathological features.Conclusion: Although not specific enough for AD diagnosis, ES biomarkers hold promise for prognosis, drug-target engagement, and a better understanding of the disease. Here, we summarize currently available ES biomarker findings and discuss their potential applications in the AD research field.
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44. |
- Limdi, Nita A., et al.
(författare)
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Warfarin pharmacogenetics : a single VKORC1 polymorphism is predictive of dose across three racial groups
- 2010
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Ingår i: Blood. - : American Society of Hematology. - 0006-4971 .- 1528-0020. ; 115:18, s. 3827-3834
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Warfarin dosing algorithms incorporating CYP2C9 and VKORC1-1639G>A improve dose prediction compared to algorithms based solely on clinical and demographic factors. However these algorithms better capture dose variability among Whites compared to Asians or Blacks. Herein we evaluate whether other VKORC1 polymorphisms and haplotypes explain additional variation in warfarin dose beyond that explained by VKORC1-1639G>A among Asians (n=1103), Blacks (n=670) and Whites (n=3113). Participants were recruited from 11 countries as part of the International Warfarin Pharmacogenetics Consortium effort. Evaluation of the effects of individual VKORC1 SNPs and haplotypes on warfarin dose employed both univariate and multivariable linear regression. VKORC1-1639G>A and 1173C>T individually explained the greatest variance in dose in all three racial groups. Incorporation of additional VKORC1 SNPs or haplotypes did not further improve dose prediction. VKORC1 explained greater variability in dose among Whites as compared to Blacks and Asians. Differences in the percent variance in dose explained by VKORC1 across race was largely accounted for by the frequency of the -1639 A (or 1173 T) allele. Thus, clinicians should recognize that although at a population level, the contribution of VKORC1 towards dose requirements is higher in Whites compared to non-whites; genotype predicts similar dose requirements across racial groups.
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45. |
- Moore, T. C., Jr., et al.
(författare)
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Equatorial Pacific productivity changes near the Eocene-Oligocene boundary
- 2014
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Ingår i: Paleoceanography. - 0883-8305 .- 1944-9186. ; 29:9, s. 825-844
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is general agreement that productivity in high latitudes increased in the late Eocene and remained high in the early Oligocene. Evidence for both increased and decreased productivity across the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) in the tropics has been presented, usually based on only one paleoproductivity proxy and often in sites with incomplete recovery of the EOT itself. A complete record of the Eocene-Oligocene transition was obtained at three drill sites in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (ODP Site 1218 and IODP Sites U1333 and U1334). Four paleoproductivity proxies that have been examined at these sites, together with carbon and oxygen isotope measurements on early Oligocene planktonic foraminifera, give evidence of ecologic and oceanographic change across this climatically important boundary. Export productivity dropped sharply in the basal Oligocene (similar to 33.7Ma) and only recovered several hundred thousand years later; however, overall paleoproductivity in the early Oligocene never reached the average levels found in the late Eocene and in more modern times. Changes in the isotopic gradients between deep- and shallow-living planktonic foraminifera suggest a gradual shoaling of the thermocline through the early Oligocene that, on average, affected accumulation rates of barite, benthic foraminifera, and opal, as well as diatom abundance near 33.5Ma. An interval with abundant large diatoms beginning at 33.3Ma suggests an intermediate thermocline depth, which was followed by further shoaling, a dominance of smaller diatoms, and an increase in average primary productivity as estimated from accumulation rates of benthic foraminifera.
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46. |
- Scheeren Brum, Wagner, 1997, et al.
(författare)
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A blood-based biomarker workflow for optimal tau-PET referral in memory clinic settings.
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - 2041-1723. ; 15:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Blood-based biomarkers for screening may guide tau positrion emissition tomography (PET) scan referrals to optimize prognostic evaluation in Alzheimer's disease. Plasma Aβ42/Aβ40, pTau181, pTau217, pTau231, NfL, and GFAP were measured along with tau-PET in memory clinic patients with subjective cognitive decline, mild cognitive impairment or dementia, in the Swedish BioFINDER-2 study (n=548) and in the TRIAD study (n=179). For each plasma biomarker, cutoffs were determined for 90%, 95%, or 97.5% sensitivity to detect tau-PET-positivity. We calculated the percentage of patients below the cutoffs (who would not undergo tau-PET; "saved scans") and the tau-PET-positivity rate among participants above the cutoffs (who would undergo tau-PET; "positive predictive value"). Generally, plasma pTau217 performed best. At the 95% sensitivity cutoff in both cohorts, pTau217 resulted in avoiding nearly half tau-PET scans, with a tau-PET-positivity rate among those who would be referred for a scan around 70%. And although tau-PET was strongly associated with subsequent cognitive decline, in BioFINDER-2 it predicted cognitive decline only among individuals above the referral cutoff on plasma pTau217, supporting that this workflow could reduce prognostically uninformative tau-PET scans. In conclusion, plasma pTau217 may guide selection of patients for tau-PET, when accurate prognostic information is of clinical value.
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47. |
- Wang, Mingyi, et al.
(författare)
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Synergistic HNO3–H2SO4–NH3 upper tropospheric particle formation
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 605:7910, s. 483-489
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- New particle formation in the upper free troposphere is a major global source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). However, the precursor vapours that drive the process are not well understood. With experiments performed under upper tropospheric conditions in the CERN CLOUD chamber, we show that nitric acid, sulfuric acid and ammonia form particles synergistically, at rates that are orders of magnitude faster than those from any two of the three components. The importance of this mechanism depends on the availability of ammonia, which was previously thought to be efficiently scavenged by cloud droplets during convection. However, surprisingly high concentrations of ammonia and ammonium nitrate have recently been observed in the upper troposphere over the Asian monsoon region. Once particles have formed, co-condensation of ammonia and abundant nitric acid alone is sufficient to drive rapid growth to CCN sizes with only trace sulfate. Moreover, our measurements show that these CCN are also highly efficient ice nucleating particles—comparable to desert dust. Our model simulations confirm that ammonia is efficiently convected aloft during the Asian monsoon, driving rapid, multi-acid HNO3–H2SO4–NH3 nucleation in the upper troposphere and producing ice nucleating particles that spread across the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere.
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48. |
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