| 1. |
- Kattge, Jens, et al.
(författare)
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TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26:1, s. 119-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.
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| 2. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 3. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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| 4. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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| 5. |
- Palmer, Nicholette D, et al.
(författare)
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A genome-wide association search for type 2 diabetes genes in African Americans.
- 2012
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Ingår i: PloS one. - San Francisco : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 7:1, s. e29202-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- African Americans are disproportionately affected by type 2 diabetes (T2DM) yet few studies have examined T2DM using genome-wide association approaches in this ethnicity. The aim of this study was to identify genes associated with T2DM in the African American population. We performed a Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) using the Affymetrix 6.0 array in 965 African-American cases with T2DM and end-stage renal disease (T2DM-ESRD) and 1029 population-based controls. The most significant SNPs (n = 550 independent loci) were genotyped in a replication cohort and 122 SNPs (n = 98 independent loci) were further tested through genotyping three additional validation cohorts followed by meta-analysis in all five cohorts totaling 3,132 cases and 3,317 controls. Twelve SNPs had evidence of association in the GWAS (P<0.0071), were directionally consistent in the Replication cohort and were associated with T2DM in subjects without nephropathy (P<0.05). Meta-analysis in all cases and controls revealed a single SNP reaching genome-wide significance (P<2.5×10(-8)). SNP rs7560163 (P = 7.0×10(-9), OR (95% CI) = 0.75 (0.67-0.84)) is located intergenically between RND3 and RBM43. Four additional loci (rs7542900, rs4659485, rs2722769 and rs7107217) were associated with T2DM (P<0.05) and reached more nominal levels of significance (P<2.5×10(-5)) in the overall analysis and may represent novel loci that contribute to T2DM. We have identified novel T2DM-susceptibility variants in the African-American population. Notably, T2DM risk was associated with the major allele and implies an interesting genetic architecture in this population. These results suggest that multiple loci underlie T2DM susceptibility in the African-American population and that these loci are distinct from those identified in other ethnic populations.
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| 6. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 7. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 8. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 11. |
- Abolfathi, Bela, et al.
(författare)
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The LSST DESC DC2 Simulated Sky Survey
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 253:31
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We describe the simulated sky survey underlying the second data challenge (DC2) carried out in preparation for analysis of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC). Significant connections across multiple science domains will be a hallmark of LSST; the DC2 program represents a unique modeling effort that stresses this interconnectivity in a way that has not been attempted before. This effort encompasses a full end-to-end approach: starting from a large N-body simulation, through setting up LSST-like observations including realistic cadences, through image simulations, and finally processing with Rubin's LSST Science Pipelines. This last step ensures that we generate data products resembling those to be delivered by the Rubin Observatory as closely as is currently possible. The simulated DC2 sky survey covers six optical bands in a wide-fast-deep area of approximately 300 deg2, as well as a deep drilling field of approximately 1 deg2. We simulate 5 yr of the planned 10 yr survey. The DC2 sky survey has multiple purposes. First, the LSST DESC working groups can use the data set to develop a range of DESC analysis pipelines to prepare for the advent of actual data. Second, it serves as a realistic test bed for the image processing software under development for LSST by the Rubin Observatory. In particular, simulated data provide a controlled way to investigate certain image-level systematic effects. Finally, the DC2 sky survey enables the exploration of new scientific ideas in both static and time domain cosmology.
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| 12. |
- Barrat, Jean-Louis, et al.
(författare)
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Soft matter roadmap
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Physics. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 2515-7639. ; 7:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Soft materials are usually defined as materials made of mesoscopic entities, often self-organised, sensitive to thermal fluctuations and to weak perturbations. Archetypal examples are colloids, polymers, amphiphiles, liquid crystals, foams. The importance of soft materials in everyday commodity products, as well as in technological applications, is enormous, and controlling or improving their properties is the focus of many efforts. From a fundamental perspective, the possibility of manipulating soft material properties, by tuning interactions between constituents and by applying external perturbations, gives rise to an almost unlimited variety in physical properties. Together with the relative ease to observe and characterise them, this renders soft matter systems powerful model systems to investigate statistical physics phenomena, many of them relevant as well to hard condensed matter systems. Understanding the emerging properties from mesoscale constituents still poses enormous challenges, which have stimulated a wealth of new experimental approaches, including the synthesis of new systems with, e.g. tailored self-assembling properties, or novel experimental techniques in imaging, scattering or rheology. Theoretical and numerical methods, and coarse-grained models, have become central to predict physical properties of soft materials, while computational approaches that also use machine learning tools are playing a progressively major role in many investigations. This Roadmap intends to give a broad overview of recent and possible future activities in the field of soft materials, with experts covering various developments and challenges in material synthesis and characterisation, instrumental, simulation and theoretical methods as well as general concepts.
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| 13. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 14. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 15. |
- Bousquet, J. Jean, et al.
(författare)
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Next-generation ARIA care pathways for rhinitis and asthma : a model for multimorbid chronic diseases
- 2019
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Ingår i: Clinical and Translational Allergy. - : BMC. - 2045-7022. ; 9
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: In all societies, the burden and cost of allergic and chronic respiratory diseases are increasing rapidly. Most economies are struggling to deliver modern health care effectively. There is a need to support the transformation of the health care system into integrated care with organizational health literacy.Main body: As an example for chronic disease care, MASK (Mobile Airways Sentinel NetworK), a new project of the ARIA (Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma) initiative, and POLLAR (Impact of Air POLLution on Asthma and Rhinitis, EIT Health), in collaboration with professional and patient organizations in the field of allergy and airway diseases, are proposing real-life ICPs centred around the patient with rhinitis, and using mHealth to monitor environmental exposure. Three aspects of care pathways are being developed: (i) Patient participation, health literacy and self-care through technology-assisted "patient activation", (ii) Implementation of care pathways by pharmacists and (iii) Next-generation guidelines assessing the recommendations of GRADE guidelines in rhinitis and asthma using real-world evidence (RWE) obtained through mobile technology. The EU and global political agendas are of great importance in supporting the digital transformation of health and care, and MASK has been recognized by DG Sante as a Good Practice in the field of digitally-enabled, integrated, person-centred care.Conclusion: In 20 years, ARIA has considerably evolved from the first multimorbidity guideline in respiratory diseases to the digital transformation of health and care with a strong political involvement.
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| 16. |
- Brawand, David, et al.
(författare)
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The genomic substrate for adaptive radiation in African cichlid fish
- 2014
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 513:7518, s. 375-381
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cichlid fishes are famous for large, diverse and replicated adaptive radiations in the Great Lakes of East Africa. To understand themolecular mechanisms underlying cichlid phenotypic diversity, we sequenced the genomes and transcriptomes of five lineages of African cichlids: the Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), an ancestral lineage with low diversity; and four members of the East African lineage: Neolamprologus brichardi/pulcher (older radiation, Lake Tanganyika), Metriaclima zebra (recent radiation, Lake Malawi), Pundamilia nyererei (very recent radiation, Lake Victoria), and Astatotilapia burtoni (riverine species around Lake Tanganyika). We found an excess of gene duplications in the East African lineage compared to tilapia and other teleosts, an abundance of non-coding element divergence, accelerated coding sequence evolution, expression divergence associated with transposable element insertions, and regulation by novel microRNAs. In addition, we analysed sequence data from sixty individuals representing six closely related species from Lake Victoria, and show genome-wide diversifying selection on coding and regulatory variants, some of which were recruited from ancient polymorphisms. We conclude that a number of molecular mechanisms shaped East African cichlid genomes, and that amassing of standing variation during periods of relaxed purifying selection may have been important in facilitating subsequent evolutionary diversification.
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| 17. |
- Dehghan, Abbas, et al.
(författare)
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Genome-Wide Association Study for Incident Myocardial Infarction and Coronary Heart Disease in Prospective Cohort Studies : The CHARGE Consortium
- 2016
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 11:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Data are limited on genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for incident coronary heart disease (CHD). Moreover, it is not known whether genetic variants identified to date also associate with risk of CHD in a prospective setting. Methods We performed a two-stage GWAS analysis of incident myocardial infarction (MI) and CHD in a total of 64,297 individuals (including 3898 MI cases, 5465 CHD cases). SNPs that passed an arbitrary threshold of 5x10(-6) in Stage I were taken to Stage II for further discovery. Furthermore, in an analysis of prognosis, we studied whether known SNPs from former GWAS were associated with total mortality in individuals who experienced MI during follow-up. Results In Stage I 15 loci passed the threshold of 5x10(-6); 8 loci for MI and 8 loci for CHD, for which one locus overlapped and none were reported in previous GWAS meta-analyses. We took 60 SNPs representing these 15 loci to Stage II of discovery. Four SNPs near QKI showed nominally significant association with MI (p-value<8.8x10(-3)) and three exceeded the genome-wide significance threshold when Stage I and Stage II results were combined (top SNP rs6941513: p = 6.2x10(-9)). Despite excellent power, the 9p21 locus SNP (rs1333049) was only modestly associated with MI (HR = 1.09, p-value = 0.02) and marginally with CHD (HR = 1.06, p-value = 0.08). Among an inception cohort of those who experienced MI during follow-up, the risk allele of rs1333049 was associated with a decreased risk of subsequent mortality (HR = 0.90, p-value = 3.2x10(-3)). Conclusions QKI represents a novel locus that may serve as a predictor of incident CHD in prospective studies. The association of the 9p21 locus both with increased risk of first myocardial infarction and longer survival after MI highlights the importance of study design in investigating genetic determinants of complex disorders.
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| 18. |
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| 19. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 20. |
- Lu, Yingchang, et al.
(författare)
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New loci for body fat percentage reveal link between adiposity and cardiometabolic disease risk
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of adiposity and its links to cardiometabolic disease risk, we conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of body fat percentage (BF%) in up to 100,716 individuals. Twelve loci reached genome-wide significance (P<5 × 10(-8)), of which eight were previously associated with increased overall adiposity (BMI, BF%) and four (in or near COBLL1/GRB14, IGF2BP1, PLA2G6, CRTC1) were novel associations with BF%. Seven loci showed a larger effect on BF% than on BMI, suggestive of a primary association with adiposity, while five loci showed larger effects on BMI than on BF%, suggesting association with both fat and lean mass. In particular, the loci more strongly associated with BF% showed distinct cross-phenotype association signatures with a range of cardiometabolic traits revealing new insights in the link between adiposity and disease risk.
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| 21. |
- Petrie, Ruth, et al.
(författare)
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Coordinating an operational data distribution network for CMIP6 data
- 2021
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - Goettingen, Germany : Copernicus Gesellschaft MBH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 14:1, s. 629-644
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The distribution of data contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). The ESGF is a network of internationally distributed sites that together work as a federated data archive. Data records from climate modelling institutes are published to the ESGF and then shared around the world. It is anticipated that CMIP6 will produce approximately 20 PB of data to be published and distributed via the ESGF. In addition to this large volume of data a number of value-added CMIP6 services are required to interact with the ESGF; for example the citation and errata services both interact with the ESGF but are not a core part of its infrastructure. With a number of interacting services and a large volume of data anticipated for CMIP6, the CMIP Data Node Operations Team (CDNOT) was formed. The CDNOT coordinated and implemented a series of CMIP6 preparation data challenges to test all the interacting components in the ESGF CMIP6 software ecosystem. This ensured that when CMIP6 data were released they could be reliably distributed. No. DE-ACO2-05CH11231 and authors at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 with the U.S. Department of Energy. The United States Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes. The Department of Energy will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan (http://energy.gov/downloads/doe-public-access-plan).
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| 22. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 23. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2011
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swepub:Mat__t (refereegranskat)
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| 24. |
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| 25. |
- Adelani, David, et al.
(författare)
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A Few Thousand Translations Go A Long Way! Leveraging Pre-trained Models for African News Translation
- 2022
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Ingår i: NAACL 2022. - Stroudsburg : Association for Computational Linguistics. - 9781955917711 ; , s. 3053-3070
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent advances in the pre-training of language models leverage large-scale datasets to create multilingual models. However, low-resource languages are mostly left out in these datasets. This is primarily because many widely spoken languages are not well represented on the web and therefore excluded from the large-scale crawls used to create datasets. Furthermore, downstream users of these models are restricted to the selection of languages originally chosen for pre-training. This work investigates how to optimally leverage existing pre-trained models to create low-resource translation systems for 16 African languages. We focus on two questions: 1) How can pre-trained models be used for languages not included in the initial pre-training? and 2) How can the resulting translation models effectively transfer to new domains? To answer these questions, we create a new African news corpus covering 16 languages, of which eight languages are not part of any existing evaluation dataset. We demonstrate that the most effective strategy for transferring both to additional languages and to additional domains is to fine-tune large pre-trained models on small quantities of high-quality translation data.
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| 26. |
- Ahmed, Kamran, et al.
(författare)
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Development of a standardised training curriculum for robotic surgery: a consensus statement from an international multidisciplinary group of experts
- 2015
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Ingår i: BJU International. - : Wiley. - 1464-4096 .- 1464-410X. ; 116:1, s. 93-101
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: To explore the views of experts about the development and validation of a robotic surgery training curriculum, and how this should be implemented. Materials and methods: An international expert panel was invited to a structured session for discussion. The study was of a mixed design, including qualitative and quantitative components based on focus group interviews during the European Association of Urology (EAU) Robotic Urology Section (ERUS) (2012), EAU (2013) and ERUS (2013) meetings. After introduction to the aims, principles and current status of the curriculum development, group responses were elicited. After content analysis of recorded interviews generated themes were discussed at the second meeting, where consensus was achieved on each theme. This discussion also underwent content analysis, and was used to draft a curriculum proposal. At the third meeting, a quantitative questionnaire about this curriculum was disseminated to attendees to assess the level of agreement with the key points. Results: In all, 150 min (19 pages) of the focus group discussion was transcribed (21 316 words). Themes were agreed by two raters (median agreement kappa 0.89) and they included: need for a training curriculum (inter-rater agreement kappa 0.85); identification of learning needs (kappa 0.83); development of the curriculum contents (kappa 0.81); an overview of available curricula (kappa 0.79); settings for robotic surgery training ((kappa 0.89); assessment and training of trainers (kappa 0.92); requirements for certification and patient safety (kappa 0.83); and need for a universally standardised curriculum (kappa 0.78). A training curriculum was proposed based on the above discussions. Conclusion: This group proposes a multi-step curriculum for robotic training. Studies are in process to validate the effectiveness of the curriculum and to assess transfer of skills to the operating room.
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| 27. |
- Andriantiana, Eric O. D., et al.
(författare)
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Extremal trees with fixed degree sequence
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Electronic Journal of Combinatorics. - : ELECTRONIC JOURNAL OF COMBINATORICS. - 1097-1440 .- 1077-8926. ; 28:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The greedy tree G(D) and the M-tree M(D) are known to be extremal among trees with degree sequence D with respect to various graph invariants. This paper provides a general theorem that covers a large family of invariants for which G(D) or M(D) is extremal. Many known results, for example on the Wiener index, the number of subtrees, the number of independent subsets and the number of matchings follow as corollaries, as do some new results on invariants such as the number of rooted spanning forests, the incidence energy and the solvability. We also extend our results on trees with fixed degree sequence D to the set of trees whose degree sequence is majorised by a given sequence D, which also has a number of applications.
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| 28. |
- Andriantiana, Eric Ould Dadah, et al.
(författare)
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Trees with minimum number of infima closed sets
- 2022
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Ingår i: Discrete Mathematics. - : Elsevier. - 0012-365X .- 1872-681X. ; 345:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Let T be a rooted tree, and V(T) its set of vertices. A subset X of V(T) is called an infima closed set of T if for any two vertices u, v is an element of X, the first common ancestor of u and v is also in X. This paper determines the trees with minimum number of infima closed sets among all rooted trees of given order, thereby answering a question of Klazar. It is shown that these trees are essentially complete binary trees, with the exception of vertices at the last levels. Moreover, an asymptotic estimate for the minimum number of infima closed sets in a tree with n vertices is also provided.
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| 29. |
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| 30. |
- Bentley, Michael J., et al.
(författare)
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A community-based geological reconstruction of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglaciation since the Last Glacial Maximum
- 2014
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 100, s. 1-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A robust understanding of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglacial history since the Last Glacial Maximum is important in order to constrain ice sheet and glacial-isostatic adjustment models, and to explore the forcing mechanisms responsible for ice sheet retreat. Such understanding can be derived from a broad range of geological and glaciological datasets and recent decades have seen an upsurge in such data gathering around the continent and Sub-Antarctic islands. Here, we report a new synthesis of those datasets, based on an accompanying series of reviews of the geological data, organised by sector. We present a series of timeslice maps for 20 ka, 15 ka, 10 ka and 5 ka, including grounding line position and ice sheet thickness changes, along with a clear assessment of levels of confidence. The reconstruction shows that the Antarctic Ice sheet did not everywhere reach the continental shelf edge at its maximum, that initial retreat was asynchronous, and that the spatial pattern of deglaciation was highly variable, particularly on the inner shelf. The deglacial reconstruction is consistent with a moderate overall excess ice volume and with a relatively small Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse la. We discuss key areas of uncertainty both around the continent and by time interval, and we highlight potential priorities for future work. The synthesis is intended to be a resource for the modelling and glacial geological community.
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| 31. |
- Bousquet, Jean, et al.
(författare)
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Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) Phase 4 (2018) : Change management in allergic rhinitis and asthma multimorbidity using mobile technology
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology. - : Elsevier. - 0091-6749 .- 1097-6825. ; 143:3, s. 864-879
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) has evolved from a guideline by using the best approach to integrated care pathways using mobile technology in patients with allergic rhinitis (AR) and asthma multimorbidity. The proposed next phase of ARIA is change management, with the aim of providing an active and healthy life to patients with rhinitis and to those with asthma multimorbidity across the lifecycle irrespective of their sex or socioeconomic status to reduce health and social inequities incurred by the disease. ARIA has followed the 8-step model of Kotter to assess and implement the effect of rhinitis on asthma multimorbidity and to propose multimorbid guidelines. A second change management strategy is proposed by ARIA Phase 4 to increase self-medication and shared decision making in rhinitis and asthma multimorbidity. An innovation of ARIA has been the development and validation of information technology evidence-based tools (Mobile Airways Sentinel Network [MASK]) that can inform patient decisions on the basis of a self-care plan proposed by the health care professional.
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| 32. |
- Bousquet, Jean, et al.
(författare)
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ARIA digital anamorphosis : Digital transformation of health and care in airway diseases from research to practice
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Allergy. European Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0105-4538 .- 1398-9995. ; 76:1, s. 168-190
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Digital anamorphosis is used to define a distorted image of health and care that may be viewed correctly using digital tools and strategies. MASK digital anamorphosis represents the process used by MASK to develop the digital transformation of health and care in rhinitis. It strengthens the ARIA change management strategy in the prevention and management of airway disease. The MASK strategy is based on validated digital tools. Using the MASK digital tool and the CARAT online enhanced clinical framework, solutions for practical steps of digital enhancement of care are proposed.
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| 33. |
- Conlon, Thomas M, et al.
(författare)
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Inhibition of LTβR signalling activates WNT-induced regeneration in lung
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 588:7836, s. 151-156
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lymphotoxin β-receptor (LTβR) signalling promotes lymphoid neogenesis and the development of tertiary lymphoid structures1,2, which are associated with severe chronic inflammatory diseases that span several organ systems3-6. How LTβR signalling drives chronic tissue damage particularly in the lung, the mechanism(s) that regulate this process, and whether LTβR blockade might be of therapeutic value have remained unclear. Here we demonstrate increased expression of LTβR ligands in adaptive and innate immune cells, enhanced non-canonical NF-κB signalling, and enriched LTβR target gene expression in lung epithelial cells from patients with smoking-associated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and from mice chronically exposed to cigarette smoke. Therapeutic inhibition of LTβR signalling in young and aged mice disrupted smoking-related inducible bronchus-associated lymphoid tissue, induced regeneration of lung tissue, and reverted airway fibrosis and systemic muscle wasting. Mechanistically, blockade of LTβR signalling dampened epithelial non-canonical activation of NF-κB, reduced TGFβ signalling in airways, and induced regeneration by preventing epithelial cell death and activating WNT/β-catenin signalling in alveolar epithelial progenitor cells. These findings suggest that inhibition of LTβR signalling represents a viable therapeutic option that combines prevention of tertiary lymphoid structures1 and inhibition of apoptosis with tissue-regenerative strategies.
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| 34. |
- Cox, Michael, et al.
(författare)
-
How academic podcasting can change academia and its relationship with society : A conversation and guide
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Frontiers in Communication. - 2297-900X. ; 8
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper we explore the potential of academic podcasting to e ect positive change within academia and between academia and society. Building on the concept of epistemic living spaces, we consider how podcasting can change how we evaluate what is legitimate knowledge and methods for knowledge production, who has access to what privileges and power, the nature of our connections within academia and with other partners, and how we experience the constraints and opportunities of space and time. We conclude by o ering a guide for others who are looking to develop their own academic podcasting projects and discuss the potential for podcasting to be formalized as amainstream academic output. To listen to an abridged and annotated version of this paper, visit: https://soundcloud.com/conservechange/podcastinginacademia.
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| 35. |
- Das, Anirban, et al.
(författare)
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Combined immunotherapy improves outcome for replication repair deficient (RRD) high-grade glioma failing anti-PD1 monotherapy: A report from the International RRD Consortium.
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Cancer discovery. - 2159-8290. ; 14:2, s. 258-273
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Immune-checkpoint inhibition (ICI) is effective for replication-repair deficient, high-grade gliomas (RRD-HGG). Clinical/biologic impact of immune-directed approaches after failing ICI-monotherapy are unknown. We performed an international study on 75 patients treated with anti-PD1; 20 are progression-free (median follow-up: 3.7-years). After 2nd-progression/recurrence (n=55), continuing ICI-based salvage prolonged survival to 11.6-months (n=38; p<0.001), particularly for those with extreme mutation burden (p=0.03). Delayed, sustained responses were observed, associated with changes in mutational spectra and immune-microenvironment. Response to re-irradiation was explained by an absence of deleterious post-radiation indel signatures (ID8). Increased CTLA4-expression over time, and subsequent CTLA4-inhibition resulted in response/stable disease in 75%. RAS-MAPK-pathway inhibition led to reinvigoration of peripheral immune and radiological responses. Local (flare) and systemic immune adverse events were frequent (biallelic mismatch-repair deficiency > Lynch syndrome). We provide mechanistic rationale for the sustained benefit in RRD-HGG from immune-directed/ synergistic salvage therapies. Future approaches need to be tailored to patient and tumor biology.
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| 36. |
- DeCarolis, Joseph, et al.
(författare)
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Leveraging Open-Source Tools for Collaborative Macro-energy System Modeling Efforts
- 2020
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Ingår i: Joule. - : Elsevier BV. - 2542-4351. ; 4:12, s. 2523-2526
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The authors are founding team members of a new effort to develop an Open Energy Outlook for the United States. The effort aims to apply best practices of policy-focused energy system modeling, ensure transparency, build a networked community, and work toward a common purpose: examining possible US energy system futures to inform energy and climate policy efforts. Individual author biographies can be found on the project website: https://openenergyoutlook.org/. DeCarolis et al. articulate the benefits of forming collaborative teams with a wide array of disciplinary and domain expertise to conduct analysis with macro-energy system models. Open-source models, tools, and datasets underpin such efforts by enabling transparency, accessibility, and replicability among team members and with the broader modeling community.
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| 37. |
- Ercan, Ayse Bahar, et al.
(författare)
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Clinical and biological landscape of constitutional mismatch-repair deficiency syndrome: an International Replication Repair Deficiency Consortium cohort study.
- 2024
-
Ingår i: The Lancet Oncology. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 1470-2045 .- 1474-5488. ; 25:5, s. 668-682
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Constitutional mismatch repair deficiency (CMMRD) syndrome is a rare and aggressive cancer predisposition syndrome. Because a scarcity of data on this condition contributes to management challenges and poor outcomes, we aimed to describe the clinical spectrum, cancer biology, and impact of genetics on patient survival in CMMRD.In this cohort study, we collected cross-sectional and longitudinal data on all patients with CMMRD, with no age limits, registered with the International Replication Repair Deficiency Consortium (IRRDC) across more than 50 countries. Clinical data were extracted from the IRRDC database, medical records, and physician-completed case record forms. The primary objective was to describe the clinical features, cancer spectrum, and biology of the condition. Secondary objectives included estimations of cancer incidence and of the impact of the specific mismatch-repair gene and genotype on cancer onset and survival, including after cancer surveillance and immunotherapy interventions.We analysed data from 201 patients (103 males, 98 females) enrolled between June 5, 2007 and Sept 9, 2022. Median age at diagnosis of CMMRD or a related cancer was 8·9 years (IQR 5·9-12·6), and median follow-up from diagnosis was 7·2 years (3·6-14·8). Endogamy among minorities and closed communities contributed to high homozygosity within countries with low consanguinity. Frequent dermatological manifestations (117 [93%] of 126 patients with complete data) led to a clinical overlap with neurofibromatosis type 1 (35 [28%] of 126). 339 cancers were reported in 194 (97%) of 201 patients. The cumulative cancer incidence by age 18 years was 90% (95% CI 80-99). Median time between cancer diagnoses for patients with more than one cancer was 1·9 years (IQR 0·8-3·9). Neoplasms developed in 15 organs and included early-onset adult cancers. CNS tumours were the most frequent (173 [51%] cancers), followed by gastrointestinal (75 [22%]), haematological (61 [18%]), and other cancer types (30 [9%]). Patients with CNS tumours had the poorest overall survival rates (39% [95% CI 30-52] at 10 years from diagnosis; log-rank p<0·0001 across four cancer types), followed by those with haematological cancers (67% [55-82]), gastrointestinal cancers (89% [81-97]), and other solid tumours (96% [88-100]). All cancers showed high mutation and microsatellite indel burdens, and pathognomonic mutational signatures. MLH1 or MSH2 variants caused earlier cancer onset than PMS2 or MSH6 variants, and inferior survival (overall survival at age 15 years 63% [95% CI 55-73] for PMS2, 49% [35-68] for MSH6, 19% [6-66] for MLH1, and 0% for MSH2; p<0·0001). Frameshift or truncating variants within the same gene caused earlier cancers and inferior outcomes compared with missense variants (p<0·0001). The greater deleterious effects of MLH1 and MSH2 variants as compared with PMS2 and MSH6 variants persisted despite overall improvements in survival after surveillance or immune checkpoint inhibitor interventions.The very high cancer burden and unique genomic landscape of CMMRD highlight the benefit of comprehensive assays in timely diagnosis and precision approaches toward surveillance and immunotherapy. These data will guide the clinical management of children and patients who survive into adulthood with CMMRD.The Canadian Institutes for Health Research, Stand Up to Cancer, Children's Oncology Group National Cancer Institute Community Oncology Research Program, Canadian Cancer Society, Brain Canada, The V Foundation for Cancer Research, BioCanRx, Harry and Agnieszka Hall, Meagan's Walk, BRAINchild Canada, The LivWise Foundation, St Baldrick Foundation, Hold'em for Life, and Garron Family Cancer Center.
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| 38. |
- Fischer, Per, 1981-, et al.
(författare)
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Functional and kinematic analysis of a wrist radial hemiarthroplasty design
- 2017
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hypothesis A radial hemiarthroplasty could obviate difficulties related to distal component loosening of the total wrist arthroplasty. The aim of this study is to investigate kinematically, the feasibility of a new design for radial wrist hemiarthroplasty.Methods Six, fresh-frozen cadaveric wrist specimens were used. Testing was performed on the native wrist, after insertion of a radial hemi-arthroplasty with intact proximal carpal row (Hemi) and with proximal row carpectomy (Hemi+PRC). Each wrist was fixed to an experimental table with the tendons of the extensor carpi radialis longus (ECRL), extensor carpi radialis brevis (ECRB), extensor carpi ulnaris (ECU), flexor carpi radialis (FCR), flexor carpi ulnaris (FCU), and abductor pollicis longus (APL) attached to the apparatus. Range of motion, axis of rotation, and muscle moment arms were recorded in manually controlled movements in wrist flexion/extension, radial/ulnar deviation, dart throwers motion, and circumduction.Results A statistically significant decrease in flexion range of motion occurred between the intact and Hemi conditions and between the intact and Hemi+PRC conditions with no significant differences in flexion range of motion occurring between the Hemi and Hemi+PRC conditions. No statistically significant changes in range of motion occurred in extension, radial deviation, ulnar deviation, flexion/ulnar deviation component of the dart throw, extension/radial deviation component of the dart throw, or circumduction functional tests.Summary Points This study indicates that the new wrist radial hemiarthroplasty can produce a stable wrist with range of motion similar to the native wrist. Overall, wrist kinematics appears to be equally acceptable in hemiarthroplasty with and without resection of the proximal row.
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| 39. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 40. |
- Grundevik, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Engine control room - Human factors
- 2009
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Ingår i: RINA, Royal Institution of Naval Architects International Conference - Human Factors in Ship Design, Safety and Operation; London; United Kingdom; 25 February 2009 through 26 February 2009. ; , s. 61-67
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A lot of effort has been put into analysis of the design and human factor issues on the ship bridge. The corresponding work and regulations are lacking with respect to the engine control room although proper engine control functionality is equally of great importance for ship operations. To address this lack of research, our team has conducted an extensive on board survey of seven ships within the Swedish merchant marine fleet. One of the purposes of this project was to raise the engine control issues and to increase the knowledge of maritime engineering and human factors issues in the engine control room. The result indicates that the design of the ECR has not developed towards meeting the new demands which this utilization of new technology implies. Therefore future set of rules and regulations regarding the engine control room design need to be developed to meet the changes in work performance.
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| 41. |
- Hinkley, Sasha, et al.
(författare)
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The JWST Early Release Science Program for the Direct Imaging and Spectroscopy of Exoplanetary Systems
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 134:1039
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The direct characterization of exoplanetary systems with high-contrast imaging is among the highest priorities for the broader exoplanet community. As large space missions will be necessary for detecting and characterizing exo-Earth twins, developing the techniques and technology for direct imaging of exoplanets is a driving focus for the community. For the first time, JWST will directly observe extrasolar planets at mid-infrared wavelengths beyond 5 μm, deliver detailed spectroscopy revealing much more precise chemical abundances and atmospheric conditions, and provide sensitivity to analogs of our solar system ice-giant planets at wide orbital separations, an entirely new class of exoplanet. However, in order to maximize the scientific output over the lifetime of the mission, an exquisite understanding of the instrumental performance of JWST is needed as early in the mission as possible. In this paper, we describe our 55 hr Early Release Science Program that will utilize all four JWST instruments to extend the characterization of planetary-mass companions to ∼15 μm as well as image a circumstellar disk in the mid-infrared with unprecedented sensitivity. Our program will also assess the performance of the observatory in the key modes expected to be commonly used for exoplanet direct imaging and spectroscopy, optimize data calibration and processing, and generate representative data sets that will enable a broad user base to effectively plan for general observing programs in future Cycles.
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| 42. |
- Hoffman, Tove, et al.
(författare)
-
Association between guilds of birds in the African-Western Palaearctic region and the tick species Hyalomma rufipes, one of the main vectors of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus.
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Microorganisms. - : MDPI AG. - 2076-2607. ; 10
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The migratory behavior of wild birds contributes to the geographical spread of ticks and their microorganisms. In this study, we aimed to investigate the dispersal and co-occurrence of Francisella and spotted fever group Rickettsia (SFGR) in ticks infesting birds migrating northward in the African-Western Palaearctic region (AWPR). Birds were trapped with mist nests across the Mediterranean basin during the 2014 and 2015 spring migration. In total, 575 ticks were collected from 244 birds. We screened the ticks for the species Francisella tularensis, the genus Francisella, and SFGR by microfluidic real-time PCR. Confirmatory analyses and metagenomic sequencing were performed on tick samples that putatively tested positive for F. tularensis during initial screenings. Hyalomma rufipes was the most common tick species and had a high prevalence of Francisella, including co-occurrence of Francisella and SFGR. Metagenomic analysis of total DNA extracted from two H. rufipes confirmed the presence of Francisella, Rickettsia, and Midichloria. Average nucleotide identity and phylogenetic inference indicated the highest identity of the metagenome-assembled genomes to a Francisella-like endosymbiont (FLE), Rickettsia aeschlimannii, and Midichloria mitochondrii. The results of this study suggest that (i) FLE- and SFGR-containing ticks are dispersed by northbound migratory birds in the AWPR, (ii) H. rufipes likely is not involved in transmission of F. tularensis in the AWPR, and (iii) a dual endosymbiosis of FLEs and Midichloria may support some of the nutritional requirements of H. rufipes.
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| 43. |
- Hoffman, Tove, et al.
(författare)
-
Co-occurrence of Francisella and spotted fever group Rickettsia in avian-associated Hyalomma rufipes
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Microorganisms. - : MDPI. - 2076-2607. ; 10:7
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: The migratory behaviour of wild birds aids in the geographical spread of ticks and their microorganisms. Ticks are known to harbor both pathogenic and symbiotic bacteria - such as species of the genera Francisella, Rickettsia,and Midichloria - and multiple bacterial species may occur within them. Francisella occurs in different tick taxa andconsists of closely related pathogenic and non-pathogenic species. Spotted fever group Rickettsia are transmitted to humans by different tick genera and are emerging human pathogens in Europe. The aims of this study were to investigate dispersal of Francisella as well as co-occurrence of Francisella and spotted fever group Rickettsia in ticks infesting northward migrating birds in the African-Western Palaearctic region.Materials and methods: Birds were trapped using mist nets at bird observatories in Spain, Italy, Greece, and Israel during their spring migration of 2014 and 2015. Ticks were screened for the genus Francisella, the species Francisella tularensis, and spotted fever group Rickettsia by microfluidic qPCR. Ticks with putative positive results for F. tularensiswere subjected to confirmation analyses, metagenomics analysis, enrichment, and whole genome sequencing.Results: There was a high prevalence of Francisella species (76.7%) and co-occurrence of Francisella species and spotted fever group Rickettsia (50.6%) in the tick species Hyalomma rufipes. Two H. rufipes yielded putative positive test results for the human pathogen F. tularensis during initial screening. Metagenomics analysis revealed presence of Francisella sp., Rickettsia sp., and Midichloria sp. DNA in the two H. rufipes ticks. The levels of Rickettsia and Midichloria DNA were relatively high while the level of Francisella DNA was low and required enrichment for the construction of metagenome-assembled genomes. Phylogenetic inference and calculations of the average nucleotide identity (ANI) indicated that: i) the Francisella genomes belonged to the Francisella-like endosymbiont (FLE) group in Clade 1 of Francisella and had highest sequence identity to an FLE found in Ornithodoros moubata (ANI: 96.7/97.0%), ii) the Rickettsia genomes had highest resemblance to Rickettsia aeschlimannii (ANI: 98.8 - 99.9%), and iii) the Midichloria genomes resembled Midichloria mitochondrii (ANI: 91.5 - 92.3%).Conclusions: The results of this study suggest ticks containing Francisella species, FLEs, and spotted fever groupRickettsia are dispersed by northbound migratory birds in the African-Western Palaearctic and suggest H. rufipes may not be involved in the transmission of F. tularensis in the study region. Future studies should aim at confirming the prevalence of Francisella spp. and spotted fever group Rickettsia in H. rufipes, in addition to focusing on the influence of FLEs on H. rufipes and their interaction with pathogenic and symbiotic bacteria of the genera Rickettsia and Midichloria.
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| 44. |
- Hoffman, Tove, et al.
(författare)
-
Co-Occurrence of Francisella, Spotted Fever Group Rickettsia, and Midichloria in Avian-Associated Hyalomma rufipes
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Microorganisms. - : MDPI. - 2076-2607. ; 10:7
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The migratory behavior of wild birds contributes to the geographical spread of ticks and their microorganisms. In this study, we aimed to investigate the dispersal and co-occurrence of Francisella and spotted fever group Rickettsia (SFGR) in ticks infesting birds migrating northward in the African-Western Palaearctic region (AWPR). Birds were trapped with mist nests across the Mediterranean basin during the 2014 and 2015 spring migration. In total, 575 ticks were collected from 244 birds. We screened the ticks for the species Francisella tularensis, the genus Francisella, and SFGR by microfluidic real-time PCR. Confirmatory analyses and metagenomic sequencing were performed on tick samples that putatively tested positive for F. tularensis during initial screenings. Hyalomma rufipes was the most common tick species and had a high prevalence of Francisella, including co-occurrence of Francisella and SFGR. Metagenomic analysis of total DNA extracted from two H. rufipes confirmed the presence of Francisella, Rickettsia, and Midichloria. Average nucleotide identity and phylogenetic inference indicated the highest identity of the metagenome-assembled genomes to a Francisella-like endosymbiont (FLE), Rickettsia aeschlimannii, and Midichloria mitochondrii. The results of this study suggest that (i) FLE- and SFGR-containing ticks are dispersed by northbound migratory birds in the AWPR, (ii) H. rufipes likely is not involved in transmission of F. tularensis in the AWPR, and (iii) a dual endosymbiosis of FLEs and Midichloria may support some of the nutritional requirements of H. rufipes.
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| 45. |
- Libby, Eric, et al.
(författare)
-
Syntrophy emerges spontaneously in complex metabolic systems
- 2019
-
Ingår i: PloS Computational Biology. - : Public Library Science. - 1553-734X .- 1553-7358. ; 15:7
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Syntrophy allows a microbial community as a whole to survive in an environment, even though individual microbes cannot. The metabolic interdependence typical of syntrophy is thought to arise from the accumulation of degenerative mutations during the sustained co-evolution of initially self-sufficient organisms. An alternative and underexplored possibility is that syntrophy can emerge spontaneously in communities of organisms that did not co-evolve. Here, we study this de novo origin of syntrophy using experimentally validated computational techniques to predict an organism's viability from its metabolic reactions. We show that pairs of metabolisms that are randomly sampled from a large space of possible metabolism and viable on specific primary carbon sources often become viable on new carbon sources by exchanging metabolites. The same biochemical reactions that are required for viability on primary carbon sources also confer viability on novel carbon sources. Our observations highlight a new and important avenue for the emergence of metabolic adaptations and novel ecological interactions.
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| 46. |
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| 47. |
- Manes, Martina, et al.
(författare)
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Closing Data Gaps and Paving the Way for Pan-European Fire Safety Efforts : Part II—Terminology of Fire Statistical Variables
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Fire Technology. - 0015-2684. ; 59:4, s. 1969-2000
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A well-defined terminology of fire-related variables is important for correct analyses and supporting knowledge-based decisions regarding the evaluation of building fires at the European level. After developing an overview of current practices for fire statistics in Part I, the terminology used and the data collected by the EU Member States and eight other countries regarding fire incidents, property damage and human losses were mapped to increase awareness of their practice and support a comprehensive assessment of several fire statistical datasets. A questionnaire was distributed to relevant authorities responsible for the collection, elaboration/analysis, and fire statistical data publications to define and select the essential variables for an appropriate fire assessment and fire incident description. Based on the results of the questionnaire able to identify the essential fire statistical variables and a detailed analysis of current definitions adopted in the fire statistics of the EU Member States and other countries, a common terminology is proposed to collect the necessary data in the EU Member States and obtain meaningful datasets based on standardised terms and definitions. The results will generate essential outputs to move towards harmonised fire statistics at the EU level and contribute to an appropriate analysis able to improve fire prevention and fire mitigation in building fires.
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| 48. |
- Manes, Martina, et al.
(författare)
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Closing Data Gaps and Paving the Way for Pan-European Fire Safety Efforts : Part I—Overview of Current Practices for Fire Statistics
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Fire Technology. - 0015-2684. ; 59:4, s. 1925-1968
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The analysis of the current state of fire statistics and data collection in Europe and other countries is needed to increase awareness of how fire incidents affect buildings and to support pan-European fire prevention and fire mitigation measures. The terminology and data collected regarding fire incidents in buildings in the EU Member States were mapped to obtain meaningful datasets to determine common terminology, collection methodology, and data interpretation system. An extensive literature review showed that fire data collection systems have been instrumental in informing firefighting strategies, evidence-based planning, prevention, and educational programmes. Differences and similarities between fire data collection systems were also investigated. The amount and quality of the information in fire statistical recording systems appear to be influenced by the complexity and structure with which the data are collected. The analysis also examined the existing fire statistics in the EU Member States and a few other countries. Finally, a detailed investigation of the number of fires, fire deaths, and injuries from 2009 to 2018 in several countries was examined based on data from a report by CTIF. The trends showed differences attributable to the existing fire statistical practices in terms of terminology and data collection, and interpretation. Part II proposes a common terminology for selected fire statistical variables. The results provide relevant information regarding fire safety at the European level and should be used to guide the development of more uniform fire statistics across Europe.
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| 49. |
- Matousek, Jiri, et al.
(författare)
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UNTANGLING TWO SYSTEMS OF NONCROSSING CURVES
- 2016
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Ingår i: Israel Journal of Mathematics. - : Springer-Verlag New York. - 0021-2172 .- 1565-8511. ; 212:1, s. 37-79
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We consider two systems (alpha(1), ... ,alpha(m)) and (beta(1), ... , beta(n)) of simple curves drawn on a compact two-dimensional surface M with boundary. Each alpha(i) and each beta(j) is either an arc meeting the boundary of M at its two endpoints, or a closed curve. The a, are pairwise disjoint except for possibly sharing endpoints, and similarly for the beta(j). We want to "untangle" the beta(j) from the alpha(i) by a self-homeomorphism of M; more precisely, we seek a homeomorphism phi: M -> M fixing the boundary of M pointwise such that the total number of crossings of the a, with the phi(beta(j)) is as small as possible. This problem is motivated by an application in the algorithmic theory of embeddings and 3 -manifolds. We prove that if M is planar, i.e., a sphere with h >= 0 boundary components ("holes"), then O(mn) crossings can be achieved (independently of h), which is asymptotically tight, as an easy lower bound shows. In general, for an arbitrary (orientable or nonorientable) surface M with h holes and of (orientable or nonorientable) genus g >= 0, we obtain an O((m + n)(4)) upper bound, again independent of h and g. The proofs rely, among other things, on a result concerning simultaneous planar drawings of graphs by Erten and Kobourov.
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| 50. |
- Menkveld, Albert J., et al.
(författare)
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Nonstandard Errors
- 2024
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Ingår i: JOURNAL OF FINANCE. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261. ; 79:3, s. 2339-2390
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty-nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
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