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1.
  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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2.
  • Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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3.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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4.
  • Arndt, D. S., et al. (författare)
  • State of the Climate in 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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5.
  • Arndt, D. S., et al. (författare)
  • STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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6.
  • Blunden, Jessica, et al. (författare)
  • State of the Climate in 2012
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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7.
  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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8.
  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (författare)
  • Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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9.
  • Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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10.
  • Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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11.
  • Aguilo, Francesca, et al. (författare)
  • THAP1 : role in mouse embryonic stem cell survival and differentiation
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Stem Cell Reports. - : Cell Press. - 2213-6711. ; 9:1, s. 92-107
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • THAP1 (THAP [Thanatos-associated protein] domain-containing, apoptosis-associated protein 1) is a ubiquitously expressed member of a family of transcription factors with highly conserved DNA-binding and protein-interacting regions. Mutations in THAP1 cause dystonia, DYT6, a neurologic movement disorder. THAP1 downstream targets and the mechanism via which it causes dystonia are largely unknown. Here, we show that wild-type THAP1 regulates embryonic stem cell (ESC) potential, survival, and proliferation. Our findings identify THAP1 as an essential factor underlying mouse ESC survival and to some extent, differentiation, particularly neuroectodermal. Loss of THAP1 or replacement with a disease-causing mutation results in an enhanced rate of cell death, prolongs Nanog, Prdm14, and/or Rex1 expression upon differentiation, and results in failure to upregulate ectodermal genes. ChIP-Seq reveals that these activities are likely due in part to indirect regulation of gene expression.
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12.
  • Ayas, Mouhab, et al. (författare)
  • Second Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Patients with Fanconi Anemia and Bone Marrow Failure
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Biology of blood and marrow transplantation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1083-8791 .- 1523-6536. ; 21:10, s. 1790-1795
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A second allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is the sole salvage option for individuals who develop graft failure after their first HCT. Data on outcomes after second HCT in patients with Fanconi anemia (FA) are scarce. Here we report outcomes after second allogeneic HCT for FA (n = 81). The indication for second HCT was graft failure after the first HCT. Transplantations were performed between 1990 and 2012. The timing of the second HCT predicted subsequent graft failure and survival. Graft failure was high when the second HCT was performed less than 3 months from the first. The 3-month probability of graft failure was 69% when the interval between the first HCT and second HCT was less than 3 months, compared with 23% when the interval was longer (P < .001). Consequently, the 1-year survival rate was substantially lower when the interval between the first and second HCTs was less than 3 months compared with longer (23% vs 58%; P = .001). The corresponding 5-year probability of survival was 16% and 45%, respectively (P = .006). Taken together, these data suggest that fewer than one-half of patients with FA undergoing a second HCT for graft failure are long-term survivors. There is an urgent need to develop strategies to reduce the rate of graft failure after first HCT.
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13.
  • Beal, Jacob, et al. (författare)
  • Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Communications Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2399-3642. ; 3:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals <1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data.
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14.
  • Cabeen, Matthew T., et al. (författare)
  • Mutations in the Lipopolysaccharide Biosynthesis Pathway Interfere with Crescentin-Mediated Cell Curvature in Caulobacter crescentus
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Journal of Bacteriology. - 0021-9193 .- 1098-5530. ; 192:13, s. 3368-3378
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Bacterial cell morphogenesis requires coordination among multiple cellular systems, including the bacterial cytoskeleton and the cell wall. In the vibrioid bacterium Caulobacter crescentus, the intermediate filament-like protein crescentin forms a cell envelope-associated cytoskeletal structure that controls cell wall growth to generate cell curvature. We undertook a genetic screen to find other cellular components important for cell curvature. Here we report that deletion of a gene (wbqL) involved in the lipopolysaccharide (LPS) biosynthesis pathway abolishes cell curvature. Loss of WbqL function leads to the accumulation of an aberrant O-polysaccharide species and to the release of the S layer in the culture medium. Epistasis and microscopy experiments show that neither S-layer nor O-polysaccharide production is required for curved cell morphology per se but that production of the altered O-polysaccharide species abolishes cell curvature by apparently interfering with the ability of the crescentin structure to associate with the cell envelope. Our data suggest that perturbations in a cellular pathway that is itself fully dispensable for cell curvature can cause a disruption of cell morphogenesis, highlighting the delicate harmony among unrelated cellular systems. Using the wbqL mutant, we also show that the normal assembly and growth properties of the crescentin structure are independent of its association with the cell envelope. However, this envelope association is important for facilitating the local disruption of the stable crescentin structure at the division site during cytokinesis.
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15.
  • De Hert, Stefan, et al. (författare)
  • Pre-operative evaluation of adults undergoing elective noncardiac surgery Updated guideline from the European Society of Anaesthesiology
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Anaesthesiology. - : LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS. - 0265-0215 .- 1365-2346. ; 35:6, s. 407-465
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The purpose of this update of the European Society of Anaesthesiology (ESA) guidelines on the pre-operative evaluation of the adult undergoing noncardiac surgery is to present recommendations based on the available relevant clinical evidence. Well performed randomised studies on the topic are limited and therefore many recommendations rely to a large extent on expert opinion and may need to be adapted specifically to the healthcare systems of individual countries. This article aims to provide an overview of current knowledge on the subject with an assessment of the quality of the evidence in order to allow anaesthesiologists all over Europe to integrate - wherever possible - this knowledge into daily patient care. The Guidelines Committee of the ESA formed a task force comprising members of the previous task force, members of ESA scientific subcommittees and an open call for volunteers was made to all individual active members of the ESA and national societies. Electronic databases were searched from July 2010 (end of the literature search of the previous ESA guidelines on pre-operative evaluation) to May 2016 without language restrictions. A total of 34066 abtracts were screened from which 2536 were included for further analysis. Relevant systematic reviews with meta-analyses, randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional surveys were selected. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system was used to assess the level of evidence and to grade recommendations. The final draft guideline was posted on the ESA website for 4 weeks and the link was sent to all ESA members, individual or national (thus including most European national anaesthesia societies). Comments were collated and the guidelines amended as appropriate. When the final draft was complete, the Guidelines Committee and ESA Board ratified the guidelines.
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16.
  • Frazier-Wood, Alexis C., et al. (författare)
  • Genetic variants associated with subjective well-being, depressive symptoms, and neuroticism identified through genome-wide analyses
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Nature Research (part of Springer Nature). - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 48, s. 624-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Very few genetic variants have been associated with depression and neuroticism, likely because of limitations on sample size in previous studies. Subjective well-being, a phenotype that is genetically correlated with both of these traits, has not yet been studied with genome-wide data. We conducted genome-wide association studies of three phenotypes: subjective well-being (n = 298,420), depressive symptoms (n = 161,460), and neuroticism (n = 170,911). We identify 3 variants associated with subjective well-being, 2 variants associated with depressive symptoms, and 11 variants associated with neuroticism, including 2 inversion polymorphisms. The two loci associated with depressive symptoms replicate in an independent depression sample. Joint analyses that exploit the high genetic correlations between the phenotypes (vertical bar(p) over cap vertical bar approximate to 0.8) strengthen the overall credibility of the findings and allow us to identify additional variants. Across our phenotypes, loci regulating expression in central nervous system and adrenal or pancreas tissues are strongly enriched for association.
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17.
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18.
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19.
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20.
  • Husiman, Jaco, et al. (författare)
  • Prospecting Secondary Raw Materials in the Urban Mine and mining wastes (ProSUM) - Final Report
  • 2017
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Batteries, electrical and electronic equipment, vehicles and mining waste contain both significant amounts and a large variety of raw materials, ranging from base metals to plastics, as well as precious metals and critical raw materials (CRMs). The EU is reliant on imports for many of these raw materials and aims to a Circular Economy. Securing responsible sourcing of those materials as well as increasing recycling rates is a complex societal challenge, partly because of the lack of structured data on the quantities, concentrations, trends and final whereabouts in different waste flows of these secondary raw materials in the Urban Mine in Europe. Currently, data on primary and secondary raw materials are available in Europe, but scattered amongst a variety of institutions including government agencies, universities, NGOs and industry. The aim of the ProSUM project was to provide a state of the art knowledge base, using best available data in a harmonised and updateable format, which allows the recycling industry and policymakers to make more informed investment and policy decisions to increase the supply and recycling of secondary raw materials.
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21.
  • Kasiske, Bertram L., et al. (författare)
  • KDIGO clinical practice guideline for the care of kidney transplant recipients: a summary
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Kidney International. - : Elsevier BV. - 1523-1755 .- 0085-2538. ; 77:4, s. 299-311
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The 2009 Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) clinical practice guideline on the monitoring, management, and treatment of kidney transplant recipients is intended to assist the practitioner caring for adults and children after kidney transplantation. The guideline development process followed an evidence-based approach, and management recommendations are based on systematic reviews of relevant treatment trials. Critical appraisal of the quality of the evidence and the strength of recommendations followed the Grades of Recommendation Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. The guideline makes recommendations for immunosuppression and graft monitoring, as well as prevention and treatment of infection, cardiovascular disease, malignancy, and other complications that are common in kidney transplant recipients, including hematological and bone disorders. Limitations of the evidence, especially the lack of definitive clinical outcome trials, are discussed and suggestions are provided for future research. This summary includes a brief description of methodology and the complete guideline recommendations but does not include the rationale and references for each recommendation, which are published elsewhere. Kidney International (2010) 77, 299-311; doi: 10.1038/ki.2009.377; published online 21 October 2009
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22.
  • Kattge, Jens, et al. (författare)
  • TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26:1, s. 119-188
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.
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23.
  • Kehoe, Laura, et al. (författare)
  • Make EU trade with Brazil sustainable
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 364:6438, s. 341-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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24.
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25.
  • Mellion, Michelle L., et al. (författare)
  • Quantitative Muscle Analysis in FSHD Using Whole-Body Fat-Referenced MRI Composite Scores for Longitudinal and Cross-sectional Analysis
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Neurology. - : LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS. - 0028-3878 .- 1526-632X. ; 99:9, s. E877-E889
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background and Objectives Facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD) is a rare, debilitating disease characterized by progressive muscle weakness. MRI is a sensitive assessment of disease severity and progression. We developed a quantitative whole-body (WB) musculoskeletal MRI (WB-MSK-MRI) protocol analyzing muscles in their entirety. This study aimed to assess WB-MSK-MRI as a potential imaging biomarker providing reliable measurements of muscle health that capture disease heterogeneity and clinically meaningful composite assessments correlating with severity and more responsive to change in clinical trials. Methods Participants aged 18-65 years, with genetically confirmed FSHD1, clinical severity 2 to 4 (Ricci scale, range 0-5), and >= 1 short tau inversion recovery-positive lower extremity muscle eligible for needle biopsy, enrolled at 6 sites and were imaged twice 4-12 weeks apart. Volumetric analysis of muscle fat infiltration (MFI), muscle fat fraction (MFF), and lean muscle volume (LMV) in 18 (36 total) muscles from bilateral shoulder, proximal arm, trunk, and legs was performed after automated atlas-based segmentation, followed by manual verification. A WB composite score, including muscles at highest risk for progression, and functional cross-sectional composites for correlation with relevant functional outcomes including timed up and go (TUG), FSHD-TUG, and reachable workspace (RWS), were developed. Results Seventeen participants enrolled in this study; 16 follow-up MRIs were performed at 52 days (range 36-85 days). Functional cross-sectional composites (MFF and MFI) showed moderate to strong correlations: TUG (rho = 0.71, rho = 0.83), FSHD-TUG (rho = 0.73, rho = 0.73), and RWS (left arm: rho = -0.71, rho = -0.53; right arm: rho = -0.61, rho = -0.65). WB composite variability: LMVtot, coefficient of variation (CV) 1.9% and 3.4%; MFFtot, within-subject SD (S-w) 0.5% and 1.5%; and MFItot (S-w), 0.3% and 0.4% for normal and intermediate muscles, respectively. CV and S-w were higher in intermediate (MFI >= 0.10; MFF <0.50) than in normal (MFI <0.10, MFF <0.50) muscles. Discussion We developed a WB-MSK-MRI protocol and composite measures that capture disease heterogeneity and assess muscle involvement as it correlates with FSHD-relevant clinical endpoints. Functional composites robustly correlate with functional assessments. Stability of the WB composite shows that it could be an assessment of change in therapeutic clinical trials. Classification of Evidence This study provides Class II evidence that quantitative WB-MSK-MRI findings associate with FSHD1 severity measured using established functional assessments.
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26.
  • Namjou, Bahram, et al. (författare)
  • High-density genotyping of STAT4 reveals multiple haplotypic associations with systemic lupus erythematosus in different racial groups
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Arthritis and Rheumatism. - : Wiley. - 0004-3591 .- 1529-0131. ; 60:4, s. 1085-1095
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • OBJECTIVE: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is the prototypical systemic autoimmune disorder, with complex etiology and a strong genetic component. Recently, gene products involved in the interferon pathway have been under intense investigation in terms of the pathogenesis of SLE. STAT-1 and STAT-4 are transcription factors that play key roles in the interferon and Th1 signaling pathways, making them attractive candidates for involvement in SLE susceptibility. METHODS: Fifty-six single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across STAT1 and STAT4 on chromosome 2 were genotyped using the Illumina platform, as part of an extensive association study in a large collection of 9,923 lupus patients and control subjects from different racial groups. DNA samples were obtained from the peripheral blood of patients with SLE and control subjects. Principal components analyses and population-based case-control association analyses were performed, and the P values, false discovery rate q values, and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. RESULTS: We observed strong genetic associations with SLE and multiple SNPs located within STAT4 in different ethnic groups (Fisher's combined P = 7.02 x 10(-25)). In addition to strongly confirming the previously reported association in the third intronic region of this gene, we identified additional haplotypic association across STAT4 and, in particular, a common risk haplotype that is found in multiple racial groups. In contrast, only a relatively weak suggestive association was observed with STAT1, probably due to its proximity to STAT4. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that STAT4 is likely to be a crucial component in SLE pathogenesis in multiple racial groups. Knowledge of the functional effects of this association, when they are revealed, might improve our understanding of the disease and provide new therapeutic targets.
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27.
  • Polme, S., et al. (författare)
  • FungalTraits: a user-friendly traits database of fungi and fungus-like stramenopiles
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Fungal Diversity. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1560-2745 .- 1878-9129. ; 105:1, s. 1-16
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The cryptic lifestyle of most fungi necessitates molecular identification of the guild in environmental studies. Over the past decades, rapid development and affordability of molecular tools have tremendously improved insights of the fungal diversity in all ecosystems and habitats. Yet, in spite of the progress of molecular methods, knowledge about functional properties of the fungal taxa is vague and interpretation of environmental studies in an ecologically meaningful manner remains challenging. In order to facilitate functional assignments and ecological interpretation of environmental studies we introduce a user friendly traits and character database FungalTraits operating at genus and species hypothesis levels. Combining the information from previous efforts such as FUNGuild and Fun(Fun) together with involvement of expert knowledge, we reannotated 10,210 and 151 fungal and Stramenopila genera, respectively. This resulted in a stand-alone spreadsheet dataset covering 17 lifestyle related traits of fungal and Stramenopila genera, designed for rapid functional assignments of environmental studies. In order to assign the trait states to fungal species hypotheses, the scientific community of experts manually categorised and assigned available trait information to 697,413 fungal ITS sequences. On the basis of those sequences we were able to summarise trait and host information into 92,623 fungal species hypotheses at 1% dissimilarity threshold.
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28.
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29.
  • Seyed Khoei, Nazlisadat, et al. (författare)
  • Circulating bilirubin levels and risk of colorectal cancer : serological and Mendelian randomization analyses
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: BMC Medicine. - : Springer Nature. - 1741-7015. ; 18:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Bilirubin, a byproduct of hemoglobin breakdown and purported anti-oxidant, is thought to be cancer preventive. We conducted complementary serological and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate whether alterations in circulating levels of bilirubin are associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We decided a priori to perform analyses separately in men and women based on suggestive evidence that associations may differ by sex.METHODS: In a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), pre-diagnostic unconjugated bilirubin (UCB, the main component of total bilirubin) concentrations were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography in plasma samples of 1386 CRC cases and their individually matched controls. Additionally, 115 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated (P < 5 × 10-8) with circulating total bilirubin were instrumented in a 2-sample MR to test for a potential causal effect of bilirubin on CRC risk in 52,775 CRC cases and 45,940 matched controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO), the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR), and the Colorectal Transdisciplinary (CORECT) study.RESULTS: The associations between circulating UCB levels and CRC risk differed by sex (Pheterogeneity = 0.008). Among men, higher levels of UCB were positively associated with CRC risk (odds ratio [OR] = 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.04-1.36; per 1-SD increment of log-UCB). In women, an inverse association was observed (OR = 0.86 (0.76-0.97)). In the MR analysis of the main UGT1A1 SNP (rs6431625), genetically predicted higher levels of total bilirubin were associated with a 7% increase in CRC risk in men (OR = 1.07 (1.02-1.12); P = 0.006; per 1-SD increment of total bilirubin), while there was no association in women (OR = 1.01 (0.96-1.06); P = 0.73). Raised bilirubin levels, predicted by instrumental variables excluding rs6431625, were suggestive of an inverse association with CRC in men, but not in women. These differences by sex did not reach formal statistical significance (Pheterogeneity ≥ 0.2).CONCLUSIONS: Additional insight into the relationship between circulating bilirubin and CRC is needed in order to conclude on a potential causal role of bilirubin in CRC development.
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30.
  • Tawil, Rabi, et al. (författare)
  • Safety and efficacy of losmapimod in facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (ReDUX4): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 2b trial
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 23:5, s. 477-486
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy is a hereditary progressive myopathy caused by aberrant expression of the transcription factor DUX4 in skeletal muscle. No approved disease-modifying treatments are available for this disorder. We aimed to assess the safety and efficacy of losmapimod (a small molecule that inhibits p38 alpha MAPK, a regulator of DUX4 expression, and p38 beta MAPK) for the treatment of facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy. Methods We did a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 2b trial at 17 neurology centres in Canada, France, Spain, and the USA. We included adults aged 18-65 years with type 1 facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (ie, with loss of repression of DUX4 expression, as ascertained by genotyping), a Ricci clinical severity score of 2-4, and at least one skeletal muscle judged using MRI to be suitable for biopsy. Participants were randomly allocated (1:1) to either oral losmapimod (15 mg twice a day) or matching placebo for 48 weeks, via an interactive response technology system. The investigator, study staff, participants, sponsor, primary outcome assessors, and study monitor were masked to the treatment allocation until study closure. The primary endpoint was change from baseline to either week 16 or 36 in DUX4driven gene expression in skeletal muscle biopsy samples, as measured by quantitative RT-PCR. The primary efficacy analysis was done in all participants who were randomly assigned and who had available data for assessment, according to the modified intention-to-treat principle. Safety and tolerability were assessed as secondary endpoints. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT04003974. The phase 2b trial is complete; an open-label extension is ongoing. Findings Between Aug 27, 2019, and Feb 27, 2020, 80 people were enrolled. 40 were randomly allocated to losmapimod and 40 to placebo. 54 (68%) participants were male and 26 (33%) were female, 70 (88%) were White, and mean age was 45<middle dot>7 (SD 12<middle dot>5) years. Least squares mean changes from baseline in DUX4driven gene expression did not differ significantly between the losmapimod (0<middle dot>83 [SE 0<middle dot>61]) and placebo (0<middle dot>40 [0<middle dot>65]) groups (difference 0<middle dot>43 [SE 0<middle dot>56; 95% CI -1<middle dot>04 to 1<middle dot>89]; p=0<middle dot>56). Losmapimod was well tolerated. 29 treatment-emergent adverse events (nine drugrelated) were reported in the losmapimod group compared with 23 (two drug-related) in the placebo group. Two participants in the losmapimod group had serious adverse events that were deemed unrelated to losmapimod by the investigators (alcohol poisoning and suicide attempt; postoperative wound infection) compared with none in the placebo group. No treatment discontinuations due to adverse events occurred and no participants died during the study. Interpretation Although losmapimod did not significantly change DUX4-driven gene expression, it was associated with potential improvements in prespecified structural outcomes (muscle fat infiltration), functional outcomes (reachable workspace, a measure of shoulder girdle function), and patient-reported global impression of change compared with placebo. These findings have informed the design and choice of efficacy endpoints for a phase 3 study of losmapimod in adults with facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy.
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31.
  • Vos, Theo, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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32.
  • Wagner, Michelle, et al. (författare)
  • ORAMA Project - D2.3 Draft Good Practice Guidelines for the collection of SRM data, improvement potential, definition and execution of Case Studies
  • 2019
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • This report is the result of Task 2.3 of the project ORAMA, corresponding to the third and final deliverable of Work Package (WP) 2. It combines previous tasks undertaken in WP2, which includes the first two deliverables, D2.1 and D2.2. In the first deliverable, an initial review and analysis of the current data collection practices for SRM across Europe from Member States reporting practices, previous and ongoing projects were formulated in a form of a structured inventory. In the second deliverable, an assessment and data gap analysis of the different data collection methods was done. In addition, recommendations and prioritization of strategies on how to improve and harmonize information in Member States (MS) were drawn. The recommendations provided in D2.2 were the bases for the formulation and implementation of each waste group’s case study which they will illustrate current deliverable. Furthermore, the case studies will provide the necessary information to create technical guidelines and training materials for WP4.
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33.
  • Wagner, Michelle, et al. (författare)
  • ORAMA Project - D6-6 Technical Final Report and Recommendations
  • 2019
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Securing the sustainable access to and supply of raw materials, and particularly of Critical Raw Materials (CRM), is of high importance for the European economy. Complex primary and secondary resources contain many different raw materials. The inability to easily produce reliable statistics about reserves, resources, stocks, and flows of raw materials limits the understanding of global trends in resource availability and hampers formulation of mineral and waste policies. This ultimately affects supply chain security and strategic decisions by industry. Hence, it is an issue of great concern for the European Commission (EC) and many other stakeholders. The ORAMA project (Optimising quality of information in RAw MAterial data collection across Europe) seeks to contribute to better supply of raw materials by improving the quality of harmonised raw materials data collection and information sharing among the different levels within the European Union (EU). Data collection practices for primary and secondary raw materials (PRM and SRM) face specific challenges in EU Member States (MS). For PRM data, the main concerns are related to data availability, geographical coverage, accessibility, harmonisation, interoperability, quality, and thematic coverage. The reporting of primary mineral resources and reserves statistics is currently carried out by a wide variety of systems, standards or codes which are not directly comparable. Hence, it is currently impossible to produce reliable pan-European figures for resources for any mineral commodity. ORAMA addresses these issues by recommending a single standard for reporting of resource data, the United Nations Framework Classification (UNFC), a framework for reporting mineral resource data developed by the UN. To enable and encourage data providers to adopt this standard for European PRM data, the ORAMA project has developed resources in the form of a range of training materials and good practice examples. The ORAMA project demonstrates that the analysis of various classifications and reporting systems that sit within the INSPIRE (Infrastructure for Spatial Information in the European Community) concept and data services, are not opposing but rather integral elements of the proper European level data collection and production of information for PRM and SRM. The use of UNFC/UNRMS (United Nations Resource Management System) in the framework of the INSPIRE compliant data service can significantly contribute to sustainable resource management taking into account not only geological knowledge and raw materials potential but also environmental and social issues, based on using the national/regional legislative elements for exploration and exploitation as well. In the case of SRM, the challenges are somewhat different. Regarding mining waste (MIN), the lack of information on deposit characteristics (composition, volumes, and suitable processing technology) is a huge barrier in the identification of recovery potential of the valuable materials that remain in the waste. Furthermore, the lack of a single reporting standard commonly accepted at EU level has created a dispersion of existing information in various systems and project deliverables. In the case of electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) and batteries, beyond the lack of harmonisation, substantial data gaps exist for the market inputs, materials consumption and stocks, and for waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) for unaccounted flows ending up being scavenged, metal scrap and export channels. For vehicles, huge amounts of data, both on stocks and flows and on composition, are systematically collected by authorities and the manufacturing industry, but are only publicly available in a somewhat too aggregated form (placed on market (POM), stock, waste flows) or not at all (composition data). Even when collected, the reporting of the composition of these flows on a product, component and materials level are currently poorly described across all MS, and when actually ending up in recycling processes, the recovery efficiency for all elements and CRMs, in particular, is disappointing. In order to improve the data collection and reporting practices for SRM a structured review and inventory were made followed by a data gap analysis which resulted in the developments of recommendations and subsequently the selection of 6 case studies. The SRM case studies tackle the main data gaps encountered in the analysis and developed tools that will enable the improvement and harmonisation of collection and reporting practices in MS, treatment facilities, data providers, academia among others. The ORAMA project recommends to establish more structured and continuous funding for realising and maintaining a European data infrastructure for tracking both PRM and SRM. The current project-by-project based financing is insufficient and not sustainable to properly track and understand Europe’s strengths and weaknesses in the early resource intensive stages of global supply chains.
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34.
  • Widholm, Per, et al. (författare)
  • Quantitative muscle analysis in facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy using whole-body fat-referenced MRI: Protocol development, multicenter feasibility, and repeatability
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Muscle and Nerve. - : WILEY. - 0148-639X .- 1097-4598. ; 66:2, s. 183-192
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Introduction/Aims Functional performance tests are the gold standard to assess disease progression and treatment effects in neuromuscular disorders. These tests can be confounded by motivation, pain, fatigue, and learning effects, increasing variability and decreasing sensitivity to disease progression, limiting efficacy assessment in clinical trials with small sample sizes. We aimed to develop and validate a quantitative and objective method to measure skeletal muscle volume and fat content based on whole-body fat-referenced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for use in multisite clinical trials. Methods Subjects aged 18 to 65 years, genetically confirmed facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy 1 (FSHD1), clinical severity 2 to 4 (Riccis scale, range 0-5), were enrolled at six sites and imaged twice 4-12 weeks apart with T1-weighted two-point Dixon MRI covering the torso and upper and lower extremities. Thirty-six muscles were volumetrically segmented using semi-automatic multi-atlas-based segmentation. Muscle fat fraction (MFF), muscle fat infiltration (MFI), and lean muscle volume (LMV) were quantified for each muscle using fat-referenced quantification. Results Seventeen patients (mean age +/- SD, 49.4 years +/- 13.02; 12 men) were enrolled. Within-patient SD ranged from 1.00% to 3.51% for MFF and 0.40% to 1.48% for MFI in individual muscles. For LMV, coefficients of variation ranged from 2.7% to 11.7%. For the composite score average of all muscles, observed SDs were 0.70% and 0.32% for MFF and MFI, respectively; composite LMV coefficient of variation was 2.0%. Discussion We developed and validated a method for measuring skeletal muscle volume and fat content for use in multisite clinical trials of neuromuscular disorders.
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