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1.	Lind, Lars, et al. (författare) Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC) 2021 Ingår i: eLife. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 10 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.
2.	Bixby, H., et al. (författare) Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults 2019 Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 569:7755, s. 260-4 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.
3.	Adrian-Martinez, S., et al. (författare) A first search for coincident gravitational waves and high energy neutrinos using LIGO, Virgo and ANTARES data from 2007 2013 Ingår i: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1475-7516. ; :6 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract We present the results of the first search for gravitational wave bursts associated with high energy neutrinos. Together, these messengers could reveal new, hidden sources that are not observed by conventional photon astronomy, particularly at high energy. Our search uses neutrinos detected by the underwater neutrino telescope ANTARES in its 5 line configuration during the period January - September 2007, which coincided with the fifth and first science runs of LIGO and Virgo, respectively. The LIGO-Virgo data were analysed for candidate gravitational-wave signals coincident in time and direction with the neutrino events. No significant coincident events were observed. We place limits on the density of joint high energy neutrino - gravitational wave emission events in the local universe, and compare them with densities of merger and core-collapse events.
4.	Rodriguez-Martinez, A, et al. (författare) Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants 2020 Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 396:10261, s. 1511-1524 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
5.	Algaba, Juan-Carlos, et al. (författare) Broadband Multi-wavelength Properties of M87 during the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope Campaign 2021 Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 911:1 Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract In 2017, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration succeeded in capturing the first direct image of the center of the M87 galaxy. The asymmetric ring morphology and size are consistent with theoretical expectations for a weakly accreting supermassive black hole of mass ∼6.5 × 109 M o˙. The EHTC also partnered with several international facilities in space and on the ground, to arrange an extensive, quasi-simultaneous multi-wavelength campaign. This Letter presents the results and analysis of this campaign, as well as the multi-wavelength data as a legacy data repository. We captured M87 in a historically low state, and the core flux dominates over HST-1 at high energies, making it possible to combine core flux constraints with the more spatially precise very long baseline interferometry data. We present the most complete simultaneous multi-wavelength spectrum of the active nucleus to date, and discuss the complexity and caveats of combining data from different spatial scales into one broadband spectrum. We apply two heuristic, isotropic leptonic single-zone models to provide insight into the basic source properties, but conclude that a structured jet is necessary to explain M87's spectrum. We can exclude that the simultaneous γ-ray emission is produced via inverse Compton emission in the same region producing the EHT mm-band emission, and further conclude that the γ-rays can only be produced in the inner jets (inward of HST-1) if there are strongly particle-dominated regions. Direct synchrotron emission from accelerated protons and secondaries cannot yet be excluded.
6.	Bousquet, Jean, et al. (författare) Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) Phase 4 (2018) : Change management in allergic rhinitis and asthma multimorbidity using mobile technology 2019 Ingår i: Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology. - : Elsevier. - 0091-6749 .- 1097-6825. ; 143:3, s. 864-879 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) has evolved from a guideline by using the best approach to integrated care pathways using mobile technology in patients with allergic rhinitis (AR) and asthma multimorbidity. The proposed next phase of ARIA is change management, with the aim of providing an active and healthy life to patients with rhinitis and to those with asthma multimorbidity across the lifecycle irrespective of their sex or socioeconomic status to reduce health and social inequities incurred by the disease. ARIA has followed the 8-step model of Kotter to assess and implement the effect of rhinitis on asthma multimorbidity and to propose multimorbid guidelines. A second change management strategy is proposed by ARIA Phase 4 to increase self-medication and shared decision making in rhinitis and asthma multimorbidity. An innovation of ARIA has been the development and validation of information technology evidence-based tools (Mobile Airways Sentinel Network [MASK]) that can inform patient decisions on the basis of a self-care plan proposed by the health care professional.
7.	Taddei, C, et al. (författare) Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol 2020 Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 582:7810, s. 73- Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.
8.	Acciari, V. A., et al. (författare) Radio Imaging of the Very-High-Energy gamma-Ray Emission Region in the Central Engine of a Radio Galaxy 2009 Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 325:5939, s. 444-448 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The accretion of matter onto a massive black hole is believed to feed the relativistic plasma jets found in many active galactic nuclei (AGN). Although some AGN accelerate particles to energies exceeding 10(12) electron volts and are bright sources of very-high-energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission, it is not yet known where the VHE emission originates. Here we report on radio and VHE observations of the radio galaxy Messier 87, revealing a period of extremely strong VHE gamma-ray flares accompanied by a strong increase of the radio flux from its nucleus. These results imply that charged particles are accelerated to very high energies in the immediate vicinity of the black hole.
9.	Orth, M, et al. (författare) Observing Huntington's disease: the European Huntington's Disease Network's REGISTRY 2011 Ingår i: Journal of neurology, neurosurgery, and psychiatry. - : BMJ. - 1468-330X .- 0022-3050. ; 82:12, s. 1409- Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
10.	Zhou, B, et al. (författare) Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants 2018 Ingår i: International journal of epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1464-3685 .- 0300-5771. ; 47:3, s. 872- Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
11.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) Gamma-ray blazar spectra with HESS II mono analysis : The case of PKS2155-304 and PG1553+113 2017 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 600 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Context. The addition of a 28 m Cherenkov telescope (CT5) to the H.E.S.S. array extended the experiment's sensitivity to lower energies. The lowest energy threshold is obtained using monoscopic analysis of data taken with CT5, providing access to gamma-ray energies below 100 GeV for small zenith angle observations. Such an extension of the instrument's energy range is particularly beneficial for studies of active galactic nuclei with soft spectra, as expected for those at a redshift >= 0.5. The high-frequency peaked BL Lac objects PKS 2155-304 (z = 0.116) and PG 1553 + 113 (0.43 < z < 0.58) are among the brightest objects in the gamma-ray sky, both showing clear signatures of gamma-ray absorption at E > 100 GeV interpreted as being due to interactions with the extragalactic background light (EBL). Aims. The aims of this work are twofold: to demonstrate the monoscopic analysis of CT5 data with a low energy threshold, and to obtain accurate measurements of the spectral energy distributions (SED) of PKS 2155-304 and PG 1553 + 113 near their SED peaks at energies approximate to 100 GeV. Methods. Multiple observational campaigns of PKS 2155 304 and PG 1553 + 113 were conducted during 2013 and 2014 using the full H.E.S.S. II instrument (CT1-5). A monoscopic analysis of the data taken with the new CT5 telescope was developed along with an investigation into the systematic uncertainties on the spectral parameters which are derived from this analysis. Results. Using the data from CT5, the energy spectra of PKS 2155 304 and PG 1553 + 113 were reconstructed down to conservative threshold energies of 80 GeV for PKS 2155 304, which transits near zenith, and 110 GeV for the more northern PG 1553 + 113. The measured spectra, well fitted in both cases by a log-parabola spectral model ( with a 5.0 similar to statistical preference for non-zero curvature for PKS 2155 304 and 4.5 sigma for PG 1553+113), were found consistent with spectra derived from contemporaneous Fermi-LAT data, indicating a sharp break in the observed spectra of both sources at E approximate to 100 GeV. When corrected for EBL absorption, the intrinsic H.E.S.S. II mono and Fermi-LAT spectrum of PKS 2155 304 was found to show significant curvature. For PG 1553+113, however, no significant detection of curvature in the intrinsic spectrum could be found within statistical and systematic uncertainties.
12.	Acero, F., et al. (författare) Prospects for Cherenkov Telescope Array Observations of the Young Supernova Remnant RX J1713.7-3946 2017 Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 840:2 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract We perform simulations for future Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) observations of RX J1713.7-3946, a young supernova remnant (SNR) and one of the brightest sources ever discovered in very high energy (VHE) gamma rays. Special attention is paid to exploring possible spatial (anti) correlations of gamma rays with emission at other wavelengths, in particular X-rays and CO/H I emission. We present a series of simulated images of RX J1713.7-3946 for CTA based on a set of observationally motivated models for the gamma-ray emission. In these models, VHE gamma rays produced by high-energy electrons are assumed to trace the nonthermal X-ray emission observed by XMM-Newton, whereas those originating from relativistic protons delineate the local gas distributions. The local atomic and molecular gas distributions are deduced by the NANTEN team from CO and H I observations. Our primary goal is to show how one can distinguish the emission mechanism(s) of the gamma rays (i.e., hadronic versus leptonic, or a mixture of the two) through information provided by their spatial distribution, spectra, and time variation. This work is the first attempt to quantitatively evaluate the capabilities of CTA to achieve various proposed scientific goals by observing this important cosmic particle accelerator.
13.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) Deeper HESS observations of Vela Junior (RX J0852.0-4622) : Morphology studies and resolved spectroscopy 2018 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Aims. We study gamma-ray emission from the shell-type supernova remnant (SNR) RXJ0852.0-4622 to better characterize its spectral properties and its distribution over the SNR. Methods. The analysis of an extended High Energy Spectroscopic System (H.E.S.S.) data set at very high energies (E > 100 GeV) permits detailed studies, as well as spatially resolved spectroscopy, of the morphology and spectrum of the whole RXJ0852.0-4622 region. The H.E.S.S. data are combined with archival data from other wavebands and interpreted in the framework of leptonic and hadronic models. The joint Fermi-LAT-H.E.S.S. spectrum allows the direct determination of the spectral characteristics of the parent particle population in leptonic and hadronic scenarios using only GeV-TeV data. Results. An updated analysis of the H.E.S.S. data shows that the spectrum of the entire SNR connects smoothly to the high-energy spectrum measured by Fermi-LAT. The increased data set makes it possible to demonstrate that the H.E.S.S. spectrum deviates significantly from a power law and is well described by both a curved power law and a power law with an exponential cutoff at an energy of E-cut = (6.7 +/- 1.2(stat) +/- 1.2(syst)) TeV. The joint Fermi-LAT-H.E.S.S. spectrum allows the unambiguous identification of the spectral shape as a power law with an exponential cutoff. No significant evidence is found for a variation of the spectral parameters across the SNR, suggesting similar conditions of particle acceleration across the remnant. A simple modeling using one particle population to model the SNR emission demonstrates that both leptonic and hadronic emission scenarios remain plausible. It is also shown that at least a part of the shell emission is likely due to the presence of a pulsar wind nebula around PSR J0855-4644.
14.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) Systematic search for very-high-energy gamma-ray emission from bow shocks of runaway stars 2018 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Context. Runaway stars form bow shocks by ploughing through the interstellar medium at supersonic speeds and are promising sources of non-thermal emission of photons. One of these objects has been found to emit non-thermal radiation in the radio band. This triggered the development of theoretical models predicting non-thermal photons from radio up to very-high-energy (VHE, E >= 0.1 TeV) gamma rays. Subsequently, one bow shock was also detected in X-ray observations. However, the data did not allow discrimination between a hot thermal and a non-thermal origin. Further observations of different candidates at X-ray energies showed no evidence for emission at the position of the bow shocks either. A systematic search in the Fermi-LAT energy regime resulted in flux upper limits for 27 candidates listed in the E-BOSS catalogue. Aims. Here we perform the first systematic search for VHE gamma-ray emission from bow shocks of runaway stars. Methods. Using all available archival H.E.S.S. data we search for very-high-energy gamma-ray emission at the positions of bow shock candidates listed in the second E-BOSS catalogue release. Out of the 73 bow shock candidates in this catalogue, 32 have been observed with H.E.S.S. Results. None of the observed 32 bow shock candidates in this population study show significant emission in the H.E.S.S. energy range. Therefore, flux upper limits are calculated in five energy bins and the fraction of the kinetic wind power that is converted into VHE gamma rays is constrained. Conclusions. Emission from stellar bow shocks is not detected in the energy range between 0.14 and 18 TeV. The resulting upper limits constrain the level of VHE gamma-ray emission from these objects down to 0.1-1% of the kinetic wind energy.
15.	Zhou, B, et al. (författare) Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants 2017 Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 389:10064, s. 37-55 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
16.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) The HESS Galactic plane survey 2018 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract We present the results of the most comprehensive survey of the Galactic plane in very high-energy (VHE) gamma-rays, including a public release of Galactic sky maps, a catalog of VHE sources, and the discovery of 16 new sources of VHE gamma-rays. The High Energy Spectroscopic System (H.E.S.S.) Galactic plane survey (HGPS) was a decade-long observation program carried out by the H.E.S.S. I array of Cherenkov telescopes in Namibia from 2004 to 2013. The observations amount to nearly 2700 h of quality-selected data, covering the Galactic plane at longitudes from l = 250 degrees to 65 degrees and latitudes vertical bar b vertical bar <= 3 degrees. In addition to the unprecedented spatial coverage, the HGPS also features a relatively high angular resolution (0.08 degrees approximate to 5 arcmin mean point spread function 68% containment radius), sensitivity (less than or similar to 1.5% Crab flux for point-like sources), and energy range (0.2-100 TeV). We constructed a catalog of VHE gamma-ray sources from the HGPS data set with a systematic procedure for both source detection and characterization of morphology and spectrum. We present this likelihood-based method in detail, including the introduction of a model component to account for unresolved, large-scale emission along the Galactic plane. In total, the resulting HGPS catalog contains 78 VHE sources, of which 14 are not reanalyzed here, for example, due to their complex morphology, namely shell-like sources and the Galactic center region. Where possible, we provide a firm identification of the VHE source or plausible associations with sources in other astronomical catalogs. We also studied the characteristics of the VHE sources with source parameter distributions. 16 new sources were previously unknown or unpublished, and we individually discuss their identifications or possible associations. We firmly identified 31 sources as pulsar wind nebulae (PWNe), supernova remnants (SNRs), composite SNRs, or gamma-ray binaries. Among the 47 sources not yet identified, most of them (36) have possible associations with cataloged objects, notably PWNe and energetic pulsars that could power VHE PWNe.
17.	Abdallah, H., et al. (författare) Search for gamma-Ray Line Signals from Dark Matter Annihilations in the Inner Galactic Halo from 10 Years of Observations with HESS 2018 Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - : American Physical Society. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 120:20 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Spectral lines are among the most powerful signatures for dark matter (DM) annihilation searches in very-high-energy gamma rays. The central region of the Milky Way halo is one of the most promising targets given its large amount of DM and proximity to Earth. We report on a search for a monoenergetic spectral line from self-annihilations of DM particles in the energy range from 300 GeV to 70 TeV using a two-dimensional maximum likelihood method taking advantage of both the spectral and spatial features of the signal versus background. The analysis makes use of Galactic center observations accumulated over ten years (2004-2014) with the H.E.S.S. array of ground-based Cherenkov telescopes. No significant gamma-ray excess above the background is found. We derive upper limits on the annihilation cross section (sigma v) for monoenergetic DM lines at the level of 4 x 10(-28) cm(3) s(-1) at 1 TeV, assuming an Einasto DM profile for the Milky Way halo. For a DM mass of 1 TeV, they improve over the previous ones by a factor of 6. The present constraints are the strongest obtained so far for DM particles in the mass range 300 GeV-70 TeV. Ground-based gamma-ray observations have reached sufficient sensitivity to explore relevant velocity-averaged cross sections for DM annihilation into two gamma-ray photons at the level expected from the thermal relic density for TeV DM particles.
18.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) A search for new supernova remnant shells in the Galactic plane with HESS 2018 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract A search for new supernova remnants (SNRs) has been conducted using TeV gamma-ray data from the H.E.S.S. Galactic plane survey. As an identification criterion, shell morphologies that are characteristic for known resolved TeV SNRs have been used. Three new SNR candidates were identified in the H.E.S.S. data set with this method. Extensive multiwavelength searches for counterparts were conducted. A radio SNR candidate has been identified to be a counterpart to HESS J1534-571. The TeV source is therefore classified as a SNR. For the other two sources, HESS J1614-518 and HESS J1912 + 101, no identifying counterparts have been found, thus they remain SNR candidates for the time being. TeV-emitting SNRs are key objects in the context of identifying the accelerators of Galactic cosmic rays. The TeV emission of the relativistic particles in the new sources is examined in view of possible leptonic and hadronic emission scenarios, taking the current multiwavelength knowledge into account.
19.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) Characterising the VHE diffuse emission in the central 200 parsecs of our Galaxy with HESS 2018 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The diffuse very high-energy (VHE; > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission observed in the central 200 pc of the Milky Way by H.E.S.S. was found to follow dense matter distribution in the central molecular zone (CMZ) up to a longitudinal distance of about 130 pc to the Galactic centre (GC), where the flux rapidly decreases. This was initially interpreted as the result of a burst-like injection of energetic particles 104 yr ago, but a recent more sensitive H.E.S.S. analysis revealed that the cosmic-ray (CR) density profile drops with the distance to the centre, making data compatible with a steady cosmic PeVatron at the GC. In this paper, we extend this analysis to obtain, for the first time, a detailed characterisation of the correlation with matter and to search for additional features and individual gamma-ray sources in the inner 200 pc. Taking advantage of 250 h of H.E.S.S. data and improved analysis techniques, we perform a detailed morphology study of the diffuse VHE emission observed from the GC ridge and reconstruct its total spectrum. To test the various contributions to the total gamma-ray emission, we used an iterative 2D maximum-likelihood approach that allows us to build a phenomenological model of the emission by summing a number of different spatial components. We show that the emission correlated with dense matter covers the full CMZ and that its flux is about half the total diffuse emission flux. We also detect some emission at higher latitude that is likely produced by hadronic collisions of CRs in less dense regions of the GC interstellar medium. We detect an additional emission component centred on the GC and extending over about 15 pc that is consistent with the existence of a strong CR density gradient and confirms the presence of a CR accelerator at the very centre of our Galaxy. We show that the spectrum of full ridge diffuse emission is compatible with that previously derived from the central regions, suggesting that a single population of particles fills the entire CMZ. Finally, we report the discovery of a VHE gamma-ray source near the GC radio arc and argue that it is produced by the pulsar wind nebula candidate G0.13-0.11.
20.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) Population study of Galactic supernova remnants at very high gamma-ray energies with HESS 2018 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Shell-type supernova remnants (SNRs) are considered prime candidates for the acceleration of Galactic cosmic rays (CRs) up to the knee of the CR spectrum at E approximate to 3 x 10(15) eV. Our MilkyWay galaxy hosts more than 350 SNRs discovered at radio wavelengths and at high energies, of which 220 fall into the H.E.S.S. Galactic Plane Survey (HGPS) region. Of those, only 50 SNRs are coincident with a H.E.S.S source and in 8 cases the very high-energy (VHE) emission is firmly identified as an SNR. The H.E.S.S. GPS provides us with a legacy for SNR population study in VHE gamma-rays and we use this rich data set to extract VHE flux upper limits from all undetected SNRs. Overall, the derived flux upper limits are not in contradiction with the canonical CR paradigm. Assuming this paradigm holds true, we can constrain typical ambient density values around shell-type SNRs to n <= 7 cm(-3) and electron-to-proton energy fractions above 10 TeV to epsilon(ep) <= 5 x 10(-3). Furthermore, comparisons of VHE with radio luminosities in non-interacting SNRs reveal a behaviour that is in agreement with the theory of magnetic field amplification at shell-type SNRs.
21.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) HESS discovery of very high energy gamma-ray emission from PKS 0625-354 2018 Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 476:3, s. 4187-4198 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract PKS 0625-354 (z = 0.055) was observed with the four High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) telescopes in 2012 during 5.5 h. The source was detected above an energy threshold of 200 GeV at a significance level of 6.1 sigma. No significant variability is found in these observations. The source is well described with a power-law spectrum with photon index Gamma = 2.84 +/- 0.50(stat) +/- 0.10(syst) and normalization (at E-0 = 1.0 TeV) N-0(E-0)=(0.58 +/- 0.22(stat) +/- 0.12(syst)) x 10(-12) TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1). Multiwavelength data collected with Fermi-LAT, Swift-XRT, Swift-UVOT, ATOM and WISE are also analysed. Significant variability is observed only in the Fermi-LAT gamma-ray and Swift-XRT X-ray energy bands. Having a good multiwavelength coverage from radio to very high energy, we performed a broad-band modelling from two types of emission scenarios. The results from a one zone lepto-hadronic and a multizone leptonic models are compared and discussed. On the grounds of energetics, our analysis favours a leptonic multizone model. Models associated to the X-ray variability constraint support previous results, suggesting a BL Lac nature of PKS 0625-354 with, however, a large-scale jet structure typical of a radio galaxy.
22.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) HESS J1741-302 : a hidden accelerator in the Galactic plane 2018 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The H.E.S.S. Collaboration has discovered a new very high energy (VHE, E > 0.1 TeV) gamma-ray source, HESS J1741-302, located in the Galactic plane. Despite several attempts to constrain its nature, no plausible counterpart has been found so far at X-ray and MeV/GeV gamma-ray energies, and the source remains unidentified. An analysis of 145-h of observations of HESS J1741-302 at VHEs has revealed a steady and relatively weak TeV source (similar to 1% of the Crab Nebula flux), with a spectral index of Gamma = 2.3 +/- 0.2(stat) +/- 0.2(sys), extending to energies up to 10 TeV without any clear signature of a cut-off. In a hadronic scenario, such a spectrum implies an object with particle acceleration up to energies of several hundred TeV. Contrary to most H.E.S.S. unidentified sources, the angular size of HESS J1741-302 is compatible with the H.E.S.S. point spread function at VHEs, with an extension constrained to be below 0.068 degrees at a 99% confidence level. The gamma-ray emission detected by H.E.S.S. can be explained both within a hadronic scenario, due to collisions of protons with energies of hundreds of TeV with dense molecular clouds, and in a leptonic scenario, as a relic pulsar wind nebula, possibly powered by the middle-aged (20 kyr) pulsar PSR B1737-30. A binary scenario, related to the compact radio source 1LC 358.266+0.038 found to be spatially coincident with the best fit position of HESS J1741-302, is also envisaged.
23.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) The gamma-ray spectrum of the core of Centaurus A as observed with HESS and Fermi-LAT 2018 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 619 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Centaurus A (Cen A) is the nearest radio galaxy discovered as a very-high-energy (VHE; 100 GeV-100 TeV) gamma-ray source by the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.). It is a faint VHE gamma-ray emitter, though its VHE flux exceeds both the extrapolation from early Fermi-LAT observations as well as expectations from a (misaligned) single-zone synchrotron-self Compton (SSC) description. The latter satisfactorily reproduces the emission from Cen A at lower energies up to a few GeV. New observations with H.E.S.S., comparable in exposure time to those previously reported, were performed and eight years of Fermi-LAT data were accumulated to clarify the spectral characteristics of the gamma-ray emission from the core of Cen A. The results allow us for the first time to achieve the goal of constructing a representative, contemporaneous gamma-ray core spectrum of Cen A over almost five orders of magnitude in energy. Advanced analysis methods, including the template fitting method, allow detection in the VHE range of the core with a statistical significance of 12 sigma on the basis of 213 hours of total exposure time. The spectrum in the energy range of 250 GeV-6 TeV is compatible with a power-law function with a photon index Gamma = 2.52 +/- 0.13(stat) +/- 0.20(sys). An updated Fermi-LAT analysis provides evidence for spectral hardening by Delta Gamma similar or equal to 0.4 +/- 0.1 at gamma-ray energies above 2.8(-0.6)(+1.0) GeV at a level of 4.0 sigma. The fact that the spectrum hardens at GeV energies and extends into the VHE regime disfavour a single-zone SSC interpretation for the overall spectral energy distribution (SED) of the core and is suggestive of a new gamma-ray emitting component connecting the high-energy emission above the break energy to the one observed at VHE energies. The absence of significant variability at both GeV and TeV energies does not yet allow disentanglement of the physical nature of this component, though a jet-related origin is possible and a simple two-zone SED model fit is provided to this end.
24.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) The population of TeV pulsar wind nebulae in the HESS Galactic Plane Survey 2018 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The nine-year H.E.S.S. Galactic Plane Survey (HGPS) has yielded the most uniform observation scan of the inner Milky Way in the TeV gamma-ray band to date. The sky maps and source catalogue of the HGPS allow for a systematic study of the population of TeV pulsar wind nebulae found throughout the last decade. To investigate the nature and evolution of pulsar wind nebulae, for the first time we also present several upper limits for regions around pulsars without a detected TeV wind nebula. Our data exhibit a correlation of TeV surface brightness with pulsar spindown power (E) over dot. This seems to be caused both by an increase of extension with decreasing (E) over dot, and hence with time, compatible with a power law R-PWN((E) over dot) similar to(E) over dot(0.65 +/- 0.20), and by a mild decrease of TeV gamma-ray luminosity with decreasing (E) over dot, compatible with L-1 (10 TeV) similar to (E) over dot(0.59 +/- 0.21). We also find that the off sets of pulsars with respect to the wind nebula centre with ages around 10 kyr are frequently larger than can be plausibly explained by pulsar proper motion and could be due to an asymmetric environment. In the present data, it seems that a large pulsar off set is correlated with a high apparent TeV efficiency L1- 10 TeV / (E) over dot. In addition to 14 HGPS sources considered firmly identified pulsar wind nebulae and 5 additional pulsar wind nebulae taken from literature, we find 10 HGPS sources that are likely TeV pulsar wind nebula candidates. Using a model that subsumes the present common understanding of the very high-energy radiative evolution of pulsar wind nebulae, we find that the trends and variations of the TeV observables and limits can be reproduced to a good level, drawing a consistent picture of present-day TeV data and theory.
25.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) Detection of variable VHE gamma-ray emission from the extra-galactic gamma-ray binary LMC P3 2018 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 610 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Context. Recently, the high-energy (HE, 0.1-100 GeV) gamma-ray emission from the object LMC P3 in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) has been discovered to be modulated with a 10.3-day period, making it the first extra-galactic gamma-ray binary. Aims. This work aims at the detection of very-high-energy (VHE, >100 GeV) gamma-ray emission and the search for modulation of the VHE signal with the orbital period of the binary system. Methods. LMC P3 has been observed with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.); the acceptance-corrected exposure time is 100 h. The data set has been folded with the known orbital period of the system in order to test for variability of the emission. Results. VHE gamma-ray emission is detected with a statistical significance of 6.4 sigma. The data clearly show variability which is phase-locked to the orbital period of the system. Periodicity cannot be deduced from the H.E.S.S. data set alone. The orbit-averaged luminosity in the 1-10 TeV energy range is (1.4 +/- 0.2) x 10(35) erg s(-1). A luminosity of (5 +/- 1) x 10(35) erg s(-1) is reached during 20% of the orbit. HE and VHE gamma-ray emissions are anti-correlated. LMC P3 is the most luminous gamma-ray binary known so far.
26.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) HESS observations of RX J1713.7-3946 with improved angular and spectral resolution : Evidence for gamma-ray emission extending beyond the X-ray emitting shell 2018 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Supernova remnants exhibit shock fronts (shells) that can accelerate charged particles up to very high energies. In the past decade, measurements of a handful of shell-type supernova remnants in very high-energy gamma rays have provided unique insights into the acceleration process. Among those objects, RX J1713.7-3946 (also known as G347.3-0.5) has the largest surface brightness, allowing us in the past to perform the most comprehensive study of morphology and spatially resolved spectra of any such very high-energy gamma-ray source. Here we present extensive new H.E.S.S. measurements of RX J1713.7-3946, almost doubling the observation time compared to our previous publication. Combined with new improved analysis tools, the previous sensitivity is more than doubled. The H.E.S.S. angular resolution of 0.048 degrees (0.036 degrees above 2 TeV) is unprecedented in gamma-ray astronomy and probes physical scales of 0.8 (0.6) parsec at the remnant's location. The new H. E. S. S. image of RX J1713.7-3946 allows us to reveal clear morphological di ff erences between X-rays and gamma rays. In particular, for the outer edge of the brightest shell region, we find the first ever indication for particles in the process of leaving the acceleration shock region. By studying the broadband energy spectrum, we furthermore extract properties of the parent particle populations, providing new input to the discussion of the leptonic or hadronic nature of the gamma-ray emission mechanism.
27.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) The supernova remnant W49B as seen with HESS and Fermi-LAT 2018 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The supernova remnant (SNR) W49B originated from a core-collapse supernova that occurred between one and four thousand years ago, and subsequently evolved into a mixed-morphology remnant, which is interacting with molecular clouds (MC). Gamma-ray observations of SNR-MC associations are a powerful tool to constrain the origin of Galactic cosmic rays, as they can probe the acceleration of hadrons through their interaction with the surrounding medium and subsequent emission of non-thermal photons. We report the detection of a gamma-ray source coincident with W49B at very high energies (VHE; E > 100 GeV) with the H.E.S.S. Cherenkov telescopes together with a study of the source with five years of Fermi-LAT high-energy gamma-ray (0.06-300 GeV) data. The smoothly connected, combined source spectrum, measured from 60 MeV to multi-TeV energies, shows two significant spectral breaks at 304 +/- 20 MeV and 8.4(-2.5)(+2.5) GeV; the latter is constrained by the joint fit from the two instruments. The detected spectral features are similar to those observed in several other SNR-MC associations and are found to be indicative of gamma-ray emission produced through neutral-pion decay.
28.	Lim, SS, et al. (författare) Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 2016 Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 388:10053, s. 1813-1850 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
29.	Arndt, D. S., et al. (författare) State of the Climate in 2016 2017 Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
30.	Arndt, D. S., et al. (författare) STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017 2018 Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310 Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
31.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) First ground-based measurement of sub-20 GeV to 100 GeV gamma-Rays from the Vela pulsar with HESS II 2018 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 620 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Aims. We report on the measurement and investigation of pulsed high-energy y-ray emission from the Vela pulsar, PSR B0833-45, based on observations with the largest telescope of H.E.S.S., CT5, in monoscopic mode, and on data obtained with the Fermi-LAT. Methods. Data from 40.3 h of observations carried out with the H.E.S.S. II array from 2013 to 2015 have been used. A dedicated very low-threshold event reconstruction and analysis pipeline was developed to achieve the lowest possible energy threshold. Eight years of Fermi-LAT data were analysed and also used as reference to validate the CT5 telescope response model and analysis methods. Results. A pulsed gamma-ray signal at a significance level of more than 15 sigma is detected from the P2 peak of the Vela pulsar light curve. Of a total of 15 835 events, more than 6000 lie at an energy below 20 GeV, implying a significant overlap between H.E.S.S. II-CT5 and the Fermi-LAT. While the investigation of the pulsar light curve with the LAT confirms characteristics previously known up to 20 GeV in the tens of GeV energy range, CT5 data show a change in the pulse morphology of P2, i.e. an extreme sharpening of its trailing edge, together with the possible onset of a new component at 3.4 sigma significance level. Assuming a power-law model for the P2 spectrum, an excellent agreement is found for the photon indices (Gamma similar or equal to 4.1) obtained with the two telescopes above 10 GeV and an upper bound of 8% is derived on the relative offset between their energy scales. Using data from both instruments, it is shown however that the spectrum of P2 in the 10-100 GeV has a pronounced curvature; this is a confirmation of the sub-exponential cut-off form found at lower energies with the LAT. This is further supported by weak evidence of an emission above 100 GeV obtained with CT5. In contrast, converging indications are found from both CT5 and LAT data for the emergence of a hard component above 50 GeV in the leading wing (LW2) of P2, which possibly extends beyond 100 GeV. Conclusions. The detection demonstrates the performance and understanding of CT5 from 100 GeV down to the sub-20 GeV domain, i.e. unprecedented low energy for ground-based gamma-ray astronomy. The extreme sharpening of the trailing edge of the P2 peak found in the H.E.S.S. II light curve of the Vela pulsar and the possible extension beyond 100 GeV of at least one of its features, LW2, provide further constraints to models of gamma-Ray emission from pulsars.
32.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) Searches for gamma-ray lines and 'pure WIMP' spectra from Dark Matter annihilations in dwarf galaxies with HESS 2018 Ingår i: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 1475-7516. ; :11 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Dwarf spheroidal galaxies are among the most promising targets for detecting signals of Dark Matter (DM) annihilations. The H.E.S.S. experiment has observed five of these systems for a total of about 130 hours. The data are re-analyzed here, and, in the absence of any detected signals, are interpreted in terms of limits on the DM annihilation cross section. Two scenarios are considered: i) DM annihilation into mono-energetic gamma-rays and ii) DM in the form of pure WIMP multiplets that, annihilating into all electroweak bosons, produce a distinctive gamma-ray spectral shape with a high-energy peak at the DM mass and a lower-energy continuum. For case i), upper limits at 95% confidence level of about less than or similar to 3 x 10(-25) cm(3) s(-1) are obtained in the mass range of 400 GeV to 1TeV. For case ii), the full spectral shape of the models is used and several excluded regions are identified, but the thermal masses of the candidates are not robustly ruled out.
33.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) The starburst galaxy NGC 253 revisited by HESS and Fermi-LAT 2018 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 617 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Context. NGC 253 is one of only two starburst galaxies found to emit gamma-rays from hundreds of MeV to multi-TeV energies. Accurate measurements of the very-high-energy (VHE; E> 100 GeV) and high-energy (HE; E > 60 MeV) spectra are crucial to study the underlying particle accelerators, probe the dominant emission mechanism(s) and to study cosmic-ray interaction and transport. Aims. The measurement of the VHE gamma-ray emission of NGC 253 published in 2012 by H.E.S.S. was limited by large systematic uncertainties. Here, the most up to date measurement of the gamma-ray spectrum of NGC 253 is investigated in both HE and VHE gamma-rays. Assuming a hadronic origin of the gamma-ray emission, the measurement uncertainties are propagated into the interpretation of the accelerated particle population. Methods. The data of H.E.S.S. observations are reanalysed using an updated calibration and analysis chain. The improved Fermi-LAT analysis employs more than 8 yr of data processed using pass 8. The cosmic-ray particle population is evaluated from the combined HE-VHE gamma-ray spectrum using NAIMA in the optically thin case. Results. The VHE gamma-ray energy spectrum is best fit by a power-law distribution with a flux normalisation of (1.34 +/- 0.14(stat) +/- 0.27(sys)) x 10(-13) cm(-2) s(-1) TeV-1 at 1 TeV - about 40% above, but compatible with the value obtained in Abramowski et al. (2012). The spectral index Gamma = 2.39 +/- 0.14(stat) +/- 0.25(sys) is slightly softer than but consistent with the previous measurement within systematic errors. In the Fermi energy range an integral flux of F(E > 60 MeV) = (1.56 +/- 0.28(stat) +/- 0.15(sys)) x 10(-8) cm(-2) s(-1) is obtained. At energies above similar to 3 GeV the HE spectrum is consistent with a power-law ranging into the VHE part of the spectrum measured by H.E.S.S. with an overall spectral index Gamma = 2.22 +/- 0.06(stat). Conclusions. Two scenarios for the starburst nucleus are tested, in which the gas in the starburst nucleus acts as either a thin or a thick target for hadronic cosmic rays accelerated by the individual sources in the nucleus. In these two models, the level to which NGC 253 acts as a calorimeter is estimated to a range of f(cal) = 0.1 to 1 while accounting for the measurement uncertainties. The presented spectrum is likely to remain the most accurate measurements until the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) has collected a substantial set of data towards NGC 253.
34.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) VHE γ-ray discovery and multiwavelength study of the blazar 1ES 2322−409 2019 Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 482:3, s. 3011-3022 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract A hotspot at a position compatible with the BL. Lac object 1ES 2322-409 was serendipitously detected with H.E.S.S. during observations performed in 2004 and 2006 on the blazar PKS 2316-423. Additional data on 1ES 2322-409 were taken in 2011 and 2012, leading to a total live-time of 22.3 h. Point-like very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission is detected from a source centred on the IFS 2322-409 position, with an excess of 116.7 events at a significance of 6.0 sigma. The average VHE gamma-ray spectrum is well described with a power law with a photon index Gamma = 3.40 +/- 0.66(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) and an integral flux Phi(E > 200 GeV) = (3.11 +/- 0.71(stat) 0.62(sys)) x 10(-2)cm(-2)s(-1), which corresponds to 1.1 per cent of the Crab nebula flux above 200 GeV. Multiwavelength data obtained with Fermi LAT, Swift XRT and UVOT, RXTE PCA, ATOM, and additional data from WISE, GROND, and Catalina are also used to characterize the broad-band non-thermal emission of lES 2322-409. The multiwavelength behaviour indicates day-scale variability. Swift UVOT and XRT data show strong variability at longer scales. A spectral energy distribution (SED) is built from contemporaneous observations obtained around a high state identified in Swift data. A modelling of the SED is performed with a stationary homogeneous one-zone synchrotronself-Compton leptonic model. The redshift of the source being unknown, two plausible values were tested for the modelling. A systematic scan of the model parameters space is performed, resulting in a well-constrained combination of values providing a good description of the broad-band behaviour of 1ES 2322-409.
35.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) The 2014 TeV γ-Ray Flare of Mrk 501 Seen with H.E.S.S. : Temporal and Spectral Constraints on Lorentz Invariance Violation 2019 Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 870:2 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The blazar Mrk 501 (z = 0.034) was observed at very-high-energy (VHE, E greater than or similar to 100 GeV) gamma-ray wavelengths during a bright flare on the night of 2014 June 23-24 (MJD 56832) with the H.E.S.S. phase-II array of Cherenkov telescopes. Data taken that night by H.E.S.S. at large zenith angle reveal an exceptional number of gamma-ray photons at multi-TeV energies, with rapid flux variability and an energy coverage extending significantly up to 20 TeV. This data set is used to constrain Lorentz invariance violation (LIV) using two independent channels: a temporal approach considers the possibility of an energy dependence in the arrival time of gamma-rays, whereas a spectral approach considers the possibility of modifications to the interaction of VHE gamma-rays with extragalactic background light (EBL) photons. The non-detection of energy-dependent time delays and the non-observation of deviations between the measured spectrum and that of a supposed power-law intrinsic spectrum with standard EBL attenuation are used independently to derive strong constraints on the energy scale of LIV (E-QG) in the subluminal scenario for linear and quadratic perturbations in the dispersion relation of photons. For the case of linear perturbations, the 95% confidence level limits obtained are E-QG,E-1 > 3.6 x 10(17) GeV using the temporal approach and E-QG,E-1 > 2.6 x 10(19) GeV using the spectral approach. For the case of quadratic perturbations, the limits obtained are E-QG,E-2 > 8.5 x 10(10) GeV using the temporal approach and E-QG,E-2 > 7.8 x 10(11) GeV using the spectral approach.
36.	Abramowski, A., et al. (författare) Detailed spectral and morphological analysis of the shell type supernova remnant RCW 86 2018 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Aims. We aim for an understanding of the morphological and spectral properties of the supernova remnant RCW 86 and for insights into the production mechanism leading to the RCW 86 very high-energy gamma-ray emission. Methods. We analyzed High Energy Spectroscopic System (H.E.S.S.) data that had increased sensitivity compared to the observations presented in the RCW 86 H.E.S.S. discovery publication. Studies of the morphological correlation between the 0.5-1 keV X-ray band, the 2-5 keV X-ray band, radio, and gamma-ray emissions have been performed as well as broadband modeling of the spectral energy distribution with two different emission models. Results. We present the first conclusive evidence that the TeV gamma-ray emission region is shell-like based on our morphological studies. The comparison with 2-5 keV X-ray data reveals a correlation with the 0.4-50 TeV gamma-ray emission. The spectrum of RCW 86 is best described by a power law with an exponential cutoff at E-cut = (3.5 +/- 1.2(stat)) TeV and a spectral index of Gamma approximate to 1.6 +/- 0.2. A static leptonic one-zone model adequately describes the measured spectral energy distribution of RCW 86, with the resultant total kinetic energy of the electrons above 1 GeV being equivalent to similar to 0.1% of the initial kinetic energy of a Type Ia supernova explosion (10(51) erg). When using a hadronic model, a magnetic field of B approximate to 100 mu G is needed to represent the measured data. Although this is comparable to formerly published estimates, a standard E-2 spectrum for the proton distribution cannot describe the gamma-ray data. Instead, a spectral index of Gamma(p) approximate to 1.7 would be required, which implies that similar to 7 x 10(49)/n(cm-3) erg has been transferred into high-energy protons with the effective density n(cm-3) = n/1 cm(-3). This is about 10% of the kinetic energy of a typical Type Ia supernova under the assumption of a density of 1 cm(-3).
37.	Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. 2015 Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
38.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) H.E.S.S. observations of the flaring gravitationally lensed galaxy PKS 1830–211 2019 Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 486:3, s. 3886-3891 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract PKS 1830-211 is a known macrolensed quasar located at a redshift of z = 2.5. Its highenergy gamma-ray emission has been detected with the Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT) instrument and evidence for lensing was obtained by several authors from its high-energy data. Observations of PKS 1830-211 were taken with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) array of Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes in 2014 August, following a flare alert by the Fermi-LAT Collaboration. The H.E.S.S observations were aimed at detecting a gamma-ray flare delayed by 20-27 d from the alert flare, as expected from observations at other wavelengths. More than 12 h of good-quality data were taken with an analysis threshold of similar to 67 GeV. The significance of a potential signal is computed as a function of the date and the average significance over the whole period. Data are compared to simultaneous observations by Fermi-LAT. No photon excess or significant signal is detected. An upper limit on PKS 1830-211 flux above 67 GeV is computed and compared to the extrapolation of the Fermi-LAT flare spectrum.
39.	Abramowski, A., et al. (författare) DISCOVERY OF THE HARD SPECTRUM VHE gamma-RAY SOURCE HESS J1641-463 2014 Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 794:1, s. L1- Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This Letter reports the discovery of a remarkably hard spectrum source, HESS J1641-463, by the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) in the very high energy (VHE) domain. HESS J1641-463 remained unnoticed by the usual analysis techniques due to confusion with the bright nearby source HESS J1640-465. It emerged at a significance level of 8.5 standard deviations after restricting the analysis to events with energies above 4 TeV. It shows a moderate flux level of phi(E > 1TeV) = (3.64 +/- 0.44(stat)+/- 0.73(sys)) x 10(-13) cm(-2) s(-1), corresponding to 1.8% of the Crab Nebula flux above the same energy, and a hard spectrum with a photon index of Gamma = 2.07 +/- 0.11(stat)+/- 0.20(sys). It is a point-like source, although an extension up to a Gaussian width of sigma = 3 arcmin cannot be discounted due to uncertainties in the H.E.S.S. point-spread function. The VHE gamma-ray flux of HESS J1641-463 is found to be constant over the observed period when checking time binnings from the year-by-year to the 28 minute exposure timescales. HESS J1641-463 is positionally coincident with the radio supernova remnant SNR G338.5+0.1. No X-ray candidate stands out as a clear association; however, Chandra and XMM-Newton data reveal some potential weak counterparts. Various VHE gamma-ray production scenarios are discussed. If the emission from HESS J1641-463 is produced by cosmic ray protons colliding with the ambient gas, then their spectrum must extend close to 1 PeV. This object may represent a source population contributing significantly to the galactic cosmic ray flux around the knee.
40.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) Particle transport within the pulsar wind nebula HESS J1825-137 2019 Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 621 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Context. We present a detailed view of the pulsar wind nebula (PWN) HESS J1825-137. We aim to constrain the mechanisms dominating the particle transport within the nebula, accounting for its anomalously large size and spectral characteristics. Aims. The nebula was studied using a deep exposure from over 12 years of H.E.S.S. I operation, together with data from H.E.S.S. II that improve the low-energy sensitivity. Enhanced energy-dependent morphological and spatially resolved spectral analyses probe the very high energy (VHE, E > 0.1 TeV) gamma-ray properties of the nebula. Methods. The nebula emission is revealed to extend out to 1.5 degrees from the pulsar, similar to 1.5 times farther than previously seen, making HESS J1825-137, with an intrinsic diameter of similar to 100 pc, potentially the largest gamma-ray PWN currently known. Characterising the strongly energy-dependent morphology of the nebula enables us to constrain the particle transport mechanisms. A dependence of the nebula extent with energy of R proportional to E alpha with alpha = -0.29 +/- 0.04(stat) +/- 0.05(sys) disfavours a pure diffusion scenario for particle transport within the nebula. The total gamma-ray flux of the nebula above 1 TeV is found to be (1.12 +/- 0.03(stat) +/- 0.25(sys)) +/- 10(-11) cm(-2) s(-1), corresponding to similar to 64% of the flux of the Crab nebula. Results. HESS J1825-137 is a PWN with clearly energy-dependent morphology at VHE gamma-ray energies. This source is used as a laboratory to investigate particle transport within intermediate-age PWNe. Based on deep observations of this highly spatially extended PWN, we produce a spectral map of the region that provides insights into the spectral variation within the nebula.
41.	Bentham, James, et al. (författare) A century of trends in adult human height 2016 Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
42.	Abdalla, H., et al. (författare) Resolving the Crab pulsar wind nebula at teraelectronvolt energies 2020 Ingår i: Nature Astronomy. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2397-3366. ; 4:2, s. 167-173 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract An angular extension at gamma-ray energies of 52 arcseconds is detected for the Crab nebula, revealing the emission region of the highest-energy gamma rays; simulations of the electromagnetic emission provide a non-trivial test of our understanding of particle acceleration in the Crab nebula. The Crab nebula is one of the most-studied cosmic particle accelerators, shining brightly across the entire electromagnetic spectrum up to very-high-energy gamma rays(1,2). It is known from observations in the radio to gamma-ray part of the spectrum that the nebula is powered by a pulsar, which converts most of its rotational energy losses into a highly relativistic outflow. This outflow powers a pulsar wind nebula, a region of up to ten light-years across, filled with relativistic electrons and positrons. These particles emit synchrotron photons in the ambient magnetic field and produce very-high-energy gamma rays by Compton up-scattering of ambient low-energy photons. Although the synchrotron morphology of the nebula is well established, it has not been known from which region the very-high-energy gamma rays are emitted(3-8). Here we report that the Crab nebula has an angular extension at gamma-ray energies of 52 arcseconds (assuming a Gaussian source width), much larger than at X-ray energies. This result closes a gap in the multi-wavelength coverage of the nebula, revealing the emission region of the highest-energy gamma rays. These gamma rays enable us to probe a previously inaccessible electron and positron energy range. We find that simulations of the electromagnetic emission reproduce our measurement, providing a non-trivial test of our understanding of particle acceleration in the Crab nebula.
43.	Lozano, Rafael, et al. (författare) Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2018 Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
44.	Vos, Theo, et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 2015 Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
45.	Bentham, James, et al. (författare) A century of trends in adult human height 2016 Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
46.	Di Cesare, Mariachiara, et al. (författare) Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: A pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants 2016 Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10026, s. 1377-1396 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
47.	Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 2016 Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
48.	Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 2015 Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
49.	Blunden, Jessica, et al. (författare) State of the Climate in 2012 2013 Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
50.	Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (författare) Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2018 Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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