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| 2. |
- Berntsson, Tommy, et al.
(författare)
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Ambulanssjukvården måste bli jämlik
- 2013
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Ingår i: Helsingborgs Dagblad. - Helsingborg : Helsingborgs Dagblad. - 1103-9388. ; 2013-06-17
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Skiftande vårdkvalité hotar patientsäkerheten inom ambulanssjukvården. Nu måste regeringen och Socialstyrelsen skapa nationella riktlinjer, skriver Nätverket för utbildning av ambulanssjuksköterskor .
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| 3. |
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| 5. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 6. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 7. |
- Fullman, N., et al.
(författare)
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Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 391:10136, s. 2236-2271
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97.1 (95% UI 95.8-98.1) in Iceland, followed by 96.6 (94.9-97.9) in Norway and 96.1 (94.5-97.3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18.6 (13.1-24.4) in the Central African Republic, 19.0 (14.3-23.7) in Somalia, and 23.4 (20.2-26.8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91.5 (89.1-936) in Beijing to 48.0 (43.4-53.2) in Tibet (a 43.5-point difference), while India saw a 30.8-point disparity, from 64.8 (59.6-68.8) in Goa to 34.0 (30.3-38.1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4.8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20.9-point to 17.0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17.2-point to 20.4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view and subsequent provision of quality health care for all populations. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 9. |
- Fullman, N., et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1423-1459
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 10. |
- Gakidou, E., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1345-1422
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Findings Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124.1 million DALYs [95% UI 111.2 million to 137.0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122.2 million DALYs [110.3 million to 133.3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83.0 million DALYs [78.3 million to 87.7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89.9 million DALYs [80.9 million to 98.2 million]), high body-mass index (64.8 million DALYs [44.4 million to 87.6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63.8 million DALYs [53.2 million to 76.3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9.3% (6.9-11.6) decline in deaths and a 10.8% (8.3-13.1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14.9% (12.7-17.5) of deaths and 6.2% (3.9-8.7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of deaths and 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27.3% (24.9-29.7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. Interpretation Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
- Naghavi, M., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1151-1210
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71.2-73.2) of deaths in 2016 with 19.3% (18.5-20.4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8.43% (8.00-8.67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1.80 million deaths (95% UI 1.59 million to 1.89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2.89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1.59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 18. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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Combination of searches for pair-produced leptoquarks at s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector
- 2024
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Ingår i: Physics Letters, Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693 .- 1873-2445. ; 854
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A statistical combination of various searches for pair-produced leptoquarks is presented, using the full LHC Run 2 (2015–2018) data set of 139 fb−1 collected with the ATLAS detector from proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of s=13 TeV. All possible decays of the leptoquarks into quarks of the third generation and charged or neutral leptons of any generation are investigated. Since no significant deviations from the Standard Model expectation are observed in any of the individual analyses, combined exclusion limits are set on the production cross-sections for scalar and vector leptoquarks. The resulting lower bounds on leptoquark masses exceed those from the individual analyses by up to 100 GeV, depending on the signal hypothesis. © 2024 The Author(s)
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| 19. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
-
Measurement of the VH,H → ττ process with the ATLAS detector at 13 TeV
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Physics Letters, Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693 .- 1873-2445. ; 855
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A measurement of the Standard Model Higgs boson produced in association with a W or Z boson and decaying into a pair of τ-leptons is presented. This search is based on proton-proton collision data collected at s=13 TeV by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1. For the Higgs boson candidate, only final states with at least one τ-lepton decaying hadronically (τ→hadrons+ντ) are considered. For the vector bosons, only leptonic decay channels are considered: Z→ℓℓ and W→ℓνℓ, with ℓ=e,μ. An excess of events over the expected background is found with an observed (expected) significance of 4.2 (3.6) standard deviations, providing evidence of the Higgs boson produced in association with a vector boson and decaying into a pair of τ-leptons. The ratio of the measured cross-section to the Standard Model prediction is μVHττ=1.28−0.29+0.30(stat.)−0.21+0.25(syst.). This result represents the most accurate measurement of the VH(ττ) process achieved to date. © 2024 The Author(s)
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| 20. |
- Aad, G, et al.
(författare)
-
Search for charged-lepton-flavor violating Formula Presented interactions in top-quark production and decay in Formula Presented collisions at Formula Presented with the ATLAS detector at the LHC
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Physical Review D. - : American Physical Society (APS). - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 110:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A search for charged-lepton-flavor violating Formula Presented (Formula Presented, Formula Presented) interactions is presented, considering both top-quark production and decay. The data analyzed correspond to Formula Presented of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of Formula Presented recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The analysis targets events containing two muons with the same electric charge, a hadronically decaying Formula Presented-lepton and at least one jet, with exactly one Formula Presented-tagged jet, produced by a Formula Presented interaction. Agreement with the Standard Model expectation within 1.6 standard deviations is observed, and limits are set at the 95% confidence level (CL) on the charged-lepton-flavor violation branching ratio of Formula Presented. An effective field theory interpretation is performed yielding 95% CL limits on Wilson coefficients, dependent on the flavor of the associated light quark and the Lorentz structure of the coupling. These range from Formula Presented for Formula Presented to Formula Presented for Formula Presented. An additional interpretation is performed for scalar leptoquark production inducing charged-lepton-flavor violation, with fixed intergenerational couplings. Upper limits on leptoquark coupling strengths are set at the 95% CL, ranging from Formula Presented to Formula Presented for leptoquark masses between 0.5 and 2.0 TeV. © 2024 CERN, for the ATLAS Collaboration.
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| 21. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
-
Search for Nearly Mass-Degenerate Higgsinos Using Low-Momentum Mildly Displaced Tracks in pp Collisions at sqrt[s]=13 TeV with the ATLAS Detector
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - : American Physical Society (APS). - 1079-7114 .- 0031-9007. ; 132:22
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Higgsinos with masses near the electroweak scale can solve the hierarchy problem and provide a dark matter candidate, while detecting them at the LHC remains challenging if their mass splitting is O(1 GeV). This Letter presents a novel search for nearly mass-degenerate Higgsinos in events with an energetic jet, missing transverse momentum, and a low-momentum track with a significant transverse impact parameter using 140 fb^{-1} of proton-proton collision data at sqrt[s]=13 TeV collected by the ATLAS experiment. For the first time since LEP, a range of mass splittings between the lightest charged and neutral Higgsinos from 0.3 to 0.9 GeV is excluded at 95% confidence level, with a maximum reach of approximately 170 GeV in the Higgsino mass.
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| 22. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
-
Searches for exclusive Higgs boson decays into D⁎γ and Z boson decays into D0γ and Ks0γ in pp collisions at s=13TeV with the ATLAS detector
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Physics Letters, Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693 .- 1873-2445. ; 855
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Searches for exclusive decays of the Higgs boson into D⁎γ and of the Z boson into D0γ and Ks0γ can probe flavour-violating Higgs boson and Z boson couplings to light quarks. Searches for these decays are performed with a pp collision data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 136.3 fb−1 collected at s=13TeV between 2016–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. In the D⁎γ and D0γ channels, the observed (expected) 95% confidence-level upper limits on the respective branching fractions are B(H→D⁎γ)
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| 23. |
- Adalbjornsson, S. I., et al.
(författare)
-
Estimating Periodicities in Symbolic Sequences Using Sparse Modeling
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Ieee Transactions on Signal Processing. - : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). - 1053-587X .- 1941-0476. ; 63:8, s. 2142-2150
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we propose a method for estimating statistical periodicities in symbolic sequences. Different from other common approaches used for the estimation of periodicities of sequences of arbitrary, finite, symbol sets, that often map the symbolic sequence to a numerical representation, we here exploit a likelihood-based formulation in a sparse modeling framework to represent the periodic behavior of the sequence. The resulting criterion includes a restriction on the cardinality of the solution; two approximate solutions are suggested-one greedy and one using an iterative convex relaxation strategy to ease the cardinality restriction. The performance of the proposed methods are illustrated using both simulated and real DNA data, showing a notable performance gain as compared to other common estimators.
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| 24. |
- Adalbjörnsson, Stefan Ingi, et al.
(författare)
-
Estimating Periodicities in Symbolic Sequences Using Sparse Modeling
- 2015
-
Ingår i: IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing. - 1053-587X. ; 63:8, s. 2142-2150
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we propose a method for estimating statistical periodicities in symbolic sequences. Different from other common approaches used for the estimation of periodicities of sequences of arbitrary, finite, symbol sets, that often map the symbolic sequence to a numerical representation, we here exploit a likelihood-based formulation in a sparse modeling framework to represent the periodic behavior of the sequence. The resulting criterion includes a restriction on the cardinality of the solution; two approximate solutions are suggested—one greedy and one using an iterative convex relaxation strategy to ease the cardinality restriction. The performance of the proposed methods are illustrated using both simulated and real DNA data, showing a notable performance gain as compared to other common estimators.
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| 25. |
- Ahlberg, Erik, et al.
(författare)
-
"Vi klimatforskare stödjer Greta och skolungdomarna"
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Dagens nyheter (DN debatt). - 1101-2447.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- DN DEBATT 15/3. Sedan industrialiseringens början har vi använt omkring fyra femtedelar av den mängd fossilt kol som får förbrännas för att vi ska klara Parisavtalet. Vi har bara en femtedel kvar och det är bråttom att kraftigt reducera utsläppen. Det har Greta Thunberg och de strejkande ungdomarna förstått. Därför stödjer vi deras krav, skriver 270 klimatforskare.
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| 26. |
- Altmejd, Adam, et al.
(författare)
-
Nowcasting COVID-19 statistics reported with delay : A case-study of Sweden and the UK
- 2023
-
Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 20:4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of unbiased, real-time statistics of trends in disease events in order to achieve an effective response. Because of reporting delays, real-time statistics frequently underestimate the total number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. When studied by event date, such delays also risk creating an illusion of a downward trend. Here, we describe a statistical methodology for predicting true daily quantities and their uncertainty, estimated using historical reporting delays. The methodology takes into account the observed distribution pattern of the lag. It is derived from the "removal method"-a well-established estimation framework in the field of ecology.
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| 27. |
- Asar, O., et al.
(författare)
-
Linear mixed effects models for non-Gaussian continuous repeated measurement data
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-9254 .- 1467-9876. ; 69:5, s. 1015-1065
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We consider the analysis of continuous repeated measurement outcomes that are collected longitudinally. A standard framework for analysing data of this kind is a linear Gaussian mixed effects model within which the outcome variable can be decomposed into fixed effects, time invariant and time-varying random effects, and measurement noise. We develop methodology that, for the first time, allows any combination of these stochastic components to be non-Gaussian, using multivariate normal variance-mean mixtures. To meet the computational challenges that are presented by large data sets, i.e. in the current context, data sets with many subjects and/or many repeated measurements per subject, we propose a novel implementation of maximum likelihood estimation using a computationally efficient subsampling-based stochastic gradient algorithm. We obtain standard error estimates by inverting the observed Fisher information matrix and obtain the predictive distributions for the random effects in both filtering (conditioning on past and current data) and smoothing (conditioning on all data) contexts. To implement these procedures, we introduce an R package: ngme. We reanalyse two data sets, from cystic fibrosis and nephrology research, that were previously analysed by using Gaussian linear mixed effects models.
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| 28. |
- Baurne, Yvette, et al.
(författare)
-
How Significant Events and Team Trust Predict Member’s Exit in New Venture Teams
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Academy of Management Proceedings. - 2151-6561 .- 0065-0668. ; 2023:1, s. 11742-11742
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper examines how the significant events and team member trust in new ventures affect exit from the team. We consider team member exit as an outcome that affects both individuals, the team, and the performance of the new venture. We develop our arguments based on event system theory, which is specifically beneficial to understand how new ventures develop. We test our arguments using a unique longitudinal data set that follows 108 teams and their 218 members over a year using repeated questionnaires (n=782). We use a Bayesian and joint modeling approach to model team turnover and correct for non-ignorable non-responses under population heterogeneity. We find that team members' level of trust affects how they perceive significant events (novel and disruptive). Trust does not affect team members’ exit. Disruptive events are strongly associated with team members’ exit. This suggests that disruptive events mediate the effect of trust on team members’ exit. We discuss the implications of our results for theory.
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| 29. |
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| 30. |
- Blom, Victoria, et al.
(författare)
-
Self-Reported General Health, Overall and Work-Related Stress, Loneliness, and Sleeping Problems in 335,625 Swedish Adults from 2000 to 2016.
- 2020
-
Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 17:2
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The prevalence of poor health, in particular stress-related mental ill-health, is increasing over time and birth cohorts. As rapid societal changes have occurred in the last decade and still are occurring, there is an interest in investigating the trends in health-related factors. The aim of the present study was to investigate trends in self-reported general health, overall stress, work-related stress, feelings of loneliness, and sleeping problems in 335,625 Swedish adults across categories of gender, geographic regions, length of education, and age from 2000 to 2016. On population level, sleeping problems and poor general health have increased markedly and significantly, while experiences of work stress decreased between 2000 and 2016 (p < 0.05). Overall stress and level of loneliness were unchanged (p > 0.05). The risk of having ≥3 symptoms (any of poor or very poor general health, often or very often perceived overall stress, loneliness, or sleeping problems) has increased significantly from 2000 to 2016 (ß = 1034 (1027-1040)). This increase was significantly higher in young (ß = 1052 (1038-1065)) and individuals with lower education (ß = 1056 (1037-1076)) compared to older and high length of education.
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| 31. |
- Bolin, David, 1983, et al.
(författare)
-
Calibrating regionally downscaled precipitation over Norway through quantile-based approaches
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography. - 2364-3579 .- 2364-3587. ; 2, s. 39-47
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dynamical downscaling of earth system models is intended to produce high-resolution climate in- formation at regional to local scales. Current models, while adequate for describing temperature distributions at relatively small scales, struggle when it comes to describing precipitation distributions. In order to better match the distribution of observed precipitation over Norway, we consider approaches to statistical adjustment of the output from a regional climate model when forced with ERA-40 reanalysis boundary conditions. As a second step, we try to correct downscalings of historical climate model runs using these transformations built from downscaled ERA-40 data. Unless such calibrations are successful, it is difficult to argue that scenario-based downscaled climate projections are realistic and useful for decision makers. We study both full quantile cali- brations and several different methods that correct individual quantiles separately using random field models. Results based on cross-validation show that while a full quantile calibration is not very effective in this case, one can correct individual quantiles satisfactorily if the spatial structure in the data are accounted for. Interestingly, different methods are favoured depending on whether ERA-40 data or historical climate model runs are adjusted.
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| 32. |
- Bolin, David, et al.
(författare)
-
Efficient methods for Gaussian Markov random fields under sparse linear constraints
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. - 9781713845393 ; 34
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods for inference and simulation of linearly constrained Gaussian MarkovRandom Fields (GMRF) are computationally prohibitive when the number ofconstraints is large. In some cases, such as for intrinsic GMRFs, they may even beunfeasible. We propose a new class of methods to overcome these challenges in the common case of sparse constraints, where one has a large number of constraints and each only involves a few elements. Our methods rely on a basis transformation into blocks of constrained versus non-constrained subspaces, and we show that the methods greatly outperform existing alternatives in terms of computational cost. By combining the proposed methods with the stochastic partial differential equation approach for Gaussian random fields, we also show how to formulate Gaussian process regression with linear constraints in a GMRF setting to reduce computational cost. This is illustrated in two applications with simulated data.
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| 33. |
- Bolin, David, et al.
(författare)
-
Gaussian Whittle–Matérn fields on metric graphs
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Bernoulli. - 1350-7265. ; 30:2, s. 1611-1639
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We define a new class of Gaussian processes on compact metric graphs such as street or river networks. The proposed models, the Whittle–Matérn fields, are defined via a fractional stochastic differential equation on the compact metric graph and are a natural extension of Gaussian fields with Matérn covariance functions on Euclidean domains to the non-Euclidean metric graph setting. Existence of the processes, as well as some of their main properties, such as sample path regularity are derived. The model class in particular contains differentiable processes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first construction of a differentiable Gaussian process on general compact metric graphs. Further, we prove an intrinsic property of these processes: that they do not change upon addition or removal of vertices with degree two. Finally, we obtain Karhunen–Loève expansions of the processes, provide numerical experiments, and compare them to Gaussian processes with isotropic covariance functions.
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| 34. |
- Bolin, David, 1983, et al.
(författare)
-
Latent Gaussian random field mixture models
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Computational Statistics & Data Analysis. - : Elsevier BV. - 0167-9473. ; 130, s. 80-93
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For many problems in geostatistics, land cover classification, and brain imaging the classical Gaussian process models are unsuitable due to sudden, discontinuous, changes in the data. To handle data of this type, we introduce a new model class that combines discrete Markov random fields (MRFs) with Gaussian Markov random fields. The model is defined as a mixture of several, possibly multivariate, Gaussian Markov random fields. For each spatial location, the discrete MRF determines which of the Gaussian fields in the mixture that is observed. This allows for the desired discontinuous changes of the latent processes, and also gives a probabilistic representation of where the changes occur spatially. By combining stochastic gradient minimization with sparse matrix techniques we obtain computationally efficient methods for both likelihood-based parameter estimation and spatial interpolation. The model is compared to Gaussian models and standard MRF models using simulated data and in application to upscaling of soil permeability data. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 35. |
- Bolin, David, et al.
(författare)
-
Local scale invariance and robustness of proper scoring rules
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Statistical Science. - 0883-4237. ; 38:1, s. 140-159
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Averages of proper scoring rules are often used to rank probabilistic forecasts. In many cases, the individual terms in these averages are based on observations and forecasts from different distributions. We show that some of the most popular proper scoring rules, such as the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), give more importance to observations with large uncertainty, which can lead to unintuitive rankings. To describe this issue, we define the concept of local scale invariance for scoring rules. A new class of generalized proper kernel scoring rules is derived and as a member of this class we propose the scaled CRPS (SCRPS). This new proper scoring rule is locally scale invariant and, therefore, works in the case of varying uncertainty. Like the CRPS, it is computationally available for output from ensemble forecasts, and does not require the ability to evaluate densities of forecasts.We further define robustness of scoring rules, show why this also can be an important concept for average scores unless one is specifically interested in extremes, and derive new proper scoring rules that are robust against outliers. The theoretical findings are illustrated in three different applications from spatial statistics, stochastic volatility models and regression for count data.
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| 36. |
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| 37. |
- Bolin, David, 1983, et al.
(författare)
-
Multivariate type G Matern stochastic partial differential equation random fields
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B-Statistical Methodology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1369-7412 .- 1467-9868.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For many applications with multivariate data, random-field models capturing departures from Gaussianity within realizations are appropriate. For this reason, we formulate a new class of multivariate non-Gaussian models based on systems of stochastic partial differential equations with additive type G noise whose marginal covariance functions are of Matern type. We consider four increasingly flexible constructions of the noise, where the first two are similar to existing copula-based models. In contrast with these, the last two constructions can model non-Gaussian spatial data without replicates. Computationally efficient methods for likelihood-based parameter estimation and probabilistic prediction are proposed, and the flexibility of the models suggested is illustrated by numerical examples and two statistical applications.
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| 38. |
- Bolin, David, 1983, et al.
(författare)
-
Spatially adaptive covariance tapering
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Spatial Statistics. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-6753. ; 18, s. 163-178
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2016 Elsevier B.V.Covariance tapering is a popular approach for reducing the computational cost of spatial prediction and parameter estimation for Gaussian process models. However, tapering can have poor performance when the process is sampled at spatially irregular locations or when non-stationary covariance models are used. This work introduces an adaptive tapering method in order to improve the performance of tapering in these problematic cases. This is achieved by introducing a computationally convenient class of compactly supported non-stationary covariance functions, combined with a new method for choosing spatially varying taper ranges. Numerical experiments are used to show that the performance of both kriging prediction and parameter estimation can be improved by allowing for spatially varying taper ranges. However, although adaptive tapering outperforms regular tapering, simply dividing the data into blocks and ignoring the dependence between the blocks is often a better method for parameter estimation.
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| 39. |
- Bukartas, Antanas, et al.
(författare)
-
Accuracy of a Bayesian technique to estimate position and activity of orphan gamma-ray sources by mobile gamma spectrometry : Influence of imprecisions in positioning systems and computational approximations
- 2022
-
Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 17:6 June
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of experimental data on performance of a developed Bayesian algorithm tailored for orphan source search, estimating which parameters affect the accuracy of the algorithm. The algorithm can estimate the position and activity of a gamma-ray point source from experimental mobile gamma spectrometry data. Bayesian estimates were made for source position and activity using mobile gamma spectrometry data obtained from one 123% HPGe detector and two 4-l NaI(Tl) detectors, considering angular variations in counting efficiency for each detector. The data were obtained while driving at 50 km/h speed past the sources using 1 s acquisition interval in the detectors. It was found that deviations in the recorded coordinates of the measurements can potentially increase the uncertainty in the position of the source 2 to 3 times and slightly decrease the activity estimations by about 7%. Due to the various sources of uncertainty affecting the experimental data, the maximum predicted relative deviations of the activity and position of the source remained about 30% regardless of the signal-to-noise ratio of the data. It was also found for the used vehicle speed of 50 km/h and 1 s acquisition time, that if the distance to the source is greater than the distance travelled by the detector during the acquisition time, it is possible to use point approximations of the count-rate function in the Bayesian likelihood with minimal deviations from the integrated estimates of the count-rate function. This approximation reduces the computational demands of the algorithm increasing the potential for applying this method in real-time orphan source search missions.
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| 40. |
- Bukartas, Antanas, et al.
(författare)
-
Bayesian algorithm to estimate position and activity of an orphan gamma source utilizing multiple detectors in a mobile gamma spectrometry system
- 2021
-
Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 16:1 January
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To avoid harm to the public and the environment, lost ionizing radiation sources must be found and brought back under the regulatory control as soon as possible. Usually, mobile gamma spectrometry systems are used in such search missions. It is possible to estimate the position and activity of point gamma sources by performing Bayesian inference on the measurement data. The aim of this study was to theoretically investigate the improvements in the Bayesian estimations of the position and activity of a point gamma source due to introduction of data from multiple detectors with angular variations of efficiency. Three detector combinations were tested - a single 123% HPGe detector, single 4l NaI (Tl) detector and a 123% HPGe with 2x4l NaI (Tl) detector combination - with and without angular efficiency variations for each combination resulting in six different variants of the Bayesian algorithm. It was found that introduction of angular efficiency variations of the detectors did improve the accuracy of activity estimation slightly, while introduction of data from additional detectors lowered the signal-to-noise ratio threshold of the system significantly, increasing the stability and accuracy of the estimated source position and activity, for a given signal-to-noise ratio.
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| 41. |
- Delmar, Frédéric, et al.
(författare)
-
Modeling new-firm growth and survival with panel data using event magnitude regression
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Journal of Business Venturing. - : Elsevier BV. - 0883-9026. ; 37:5
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We introduce a new model to address three methodological biases in research on new venture growth and survival. The model offers entrepreneurship scholars numerous benefits. The biases are identified using a systematic review of 96 papers using longitudinal data published over a period of 20 years. They are: (1) distributional properties of new ventures; (2) selection bias; and (3) causal asymmetry. The biases make the popular use of normal distribution models problematic. As a potential solution, we introduce and test an event magnitude regression model approach (EMM). In this two-stage model, the first model explores the probability of four events: a firm staying the same size, expanding, contracting, or exiting. In the second stage, if the firm contracts or expands, we estimate the magnitude of the change. A suggested benefit is that researchers can better separate the likelihood of an event from its magnitude, thereby opening new avenues for research. We provide an overview of our model analyzing an example data set involving longitudinal venture level data. We provide a new package for the statistical software R. Our findings show that EMM outperforms the widely adopted normal distribution model. We discuss the benefits and consequences of our model, identify areas for future research, and offer recommendations for research practice.
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| 42. |
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| 43. |
- Edberg, Anna-Karin, 1961-, et al.
(författare)
-
Introduktion
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Omvårdnad på avancerad nivå. - Lund : Studentlitteratur. - 9789144071459 ; , s. 15-27, s. 25-30, s. 9-18, s. 7-11
-
Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 44. |
- Ekblom Bak, Elin, 1981-, et al.
(författare)
-
Decline in cardiorespiratory fitness in the Swedish working force between 1995 and 2017.
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Medicine and Science in Sports. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0905-7188 .- 1600-0838. ; 29:2, s. 232-239
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Long-term trend analyses of cardiorespiratory fitness (VO2 max) in the general population are limited.OBJECTIVES: To describe trends in VO2 max from 1995 to 2017 in the Swedish working force and to study developments across categories of sex, age, education, and geographic regions.METHODS: 354.277 participants (44% women, 18-74 years) who participated in a nationwide occupational health service screening between 1995 and 2017 were included. Changes in standardized mean values of absolute (L·min-1 ) and relative (ml·min-1 ·kg-1 ) VO2 max, and the proportion with low (<32) relative VO2 max are reported. VO2 max was estimated using a submaximal cycle test.RESULTS: Absolute VO2 max decreased by -6.7% (-0.19 L·min-1 ) in the total population. Relative VO2 max decreased by -10.8% (-4.2 ml·min-1 ·kg-1 ) with approximately one-third explained by a simultaneous increase in body mass. Decreases in absolute fitness were more pronounced in men vs. women (8.7% vs. 5.3%), in younger vs. older (6.5% vs 2.3%), in short (11.4%) vs. long (4.5%) education, and in rural vs. urban regions (6.5% vs 3.5%), all p<0.001. The proportions with low VO2 max increased from 27% to 46% (p<0.001).CONCLUSION: Between 1995 and 2017, there was a steady and pronounced decline in mean cardiorespiratory fitness in Swedish adults. Male gender, young age, short education and living in a rural area were predictive of greater reductions. The proportion with low cardiorespiratory fitness almost doubled. Given the strong associations between cardiorespiratory fitness and multiple morbidities and mortality, preventing further decreases is a clear public health priority, especially for vulnerable groups. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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| 45. |
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| 46. |
- Elfwen, Ludvig, et al.
(författare)
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Direct or subacute coronary angiography in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (DISCO)-An initial pilot-study of a randomized clinical trial
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Resuscitation. - : ELSEVIER IRELAND LTD. - 0300-9572 .- 1873-1570. ; 139, s. 253-261
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The clinical importance of immediate coronary angiography, with potentially subsequent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients without ST-elevation on the ECG is unclear. In this study, we assessed feasibility and safety aspects of performing immediate coronary angiography in a pre-specified pilot phase of the 'DIrect or Subacute Coronary angiography in Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest' (DISCO) randomized controlled trial (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT02309151). Methods: Resuscitated bystander witnessed OHCA patients > 18 years without ST-elevation on the ECG were randomized to immediate coronary angiography versus standard of care. Event times, procedure related adverse events and safety variables within 7 days were recorded. Results: In total, 79 patients were randomized to immediate angiography (n = 39) or standard of care (n = 40). No major differences in baseline characteristics between the groups were found. There were no differences in the proportion of bleedings and renal failure. Three patients randomized to immediate angiography and six patients randomized to standard care died within 24 h. The median time from EMS arrival to coronary angiography was 135 min in the immediate angiography group. In patients randomized to immediate angiography a culprit lesion was found in 14/38 (36.8%) and PCI was performed in all these patients. In 6/40 (15%) patients randomized to standard of care, coronary angiography was performed before the stipulated 3 days. Conclusion: In this out-of-hospital cardiac arrest population without ST-elevation, randomization to a strategy to perform immediate coronary angiography was feasible although the time window of 120 min from EMS arrival at the scene of the arrest to start of coronary angiography was not achieved. No significant safety issues were reported.
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