| 1. |
- Qi, Jing, et al.
(författare)
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Levels, distribution, childhood exposure assessment, and influencing factors of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in household dust from nine cities in China
- 2023
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 874
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Household dust is an important source of premature exposure to polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), especially for children. In this onsite study, 246 dust samples were collected from 224 households in nine Chinese cities during 2018–2019. Questionnaires were administered to explore the association between household-related information and PBDEs in household dust. The median concentration of Σ12PBDEs in household dust from 9 cities was 138 ng/g (94–227 ng/g), with the arithmetic mean of 240 ± 401 ng/g. Among the nine cities, the highest median concentration of Σ12PBDEs in household dust was found in Mianyang (295.57 ng/g), while the lowest was found in Wuxi (23.15 ng/g). BDE-71 was the most dominant congener, ranging from 42.08 % to 98.15 % of the 12 PBDE congeners among 9 cities. Three potential sources for the indoor environment were Penta-BDE, Octa-BDE commercial products, and photolytic bromine from Deca-BDEs based on the largest contribution (81.24 %). Under the moderate exposure scenario, the exposure levels through ingestion and dermal absorption for children were 7.30 × 10−1 ng/kg BW/day and 3.26 × 10−2 ng/kg BW/day, respectively. Temperature, CO2, years of residence, income, family size, household size, use of computers, heating, use of insecticide, and use of humidifiers were influential factors for PBDE concentrations in household dust. Based on the evidence of the correlation between PBDEs and these household parameters, it can be applied to reduce PBDE concentrations in household dust, which is a basis for controlling PBDEs pollution in Chinese households and protecting population health.
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| 2. |
- Wang, Xinqi, et al.
(författare)
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Levels, distribution, sources and children health risk of PAHs in residential dust : A multi-city study in China
- 2023
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 862
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are typical residential pollutants mainly from biofuel combustion that impose inevitable risk to children. The PAHs in residential dust is universal in most Chinese households with an obvious public health concern.Methods: In this observational study, a total of 235 residential dust samples from 8 Chinese cities (Panjin, Shijiazhuang, Lanzhou, Luoyang, Xi'an, Wuxi, Mianyang, and Shenzhen) were collected from April 2018 to March 2019, which were extracted and analyzed for 16 priority PAHs by HPLC/FD-UV. Diagnostic ratios, hierarchical clustering analysis and principal component analysis were applied simultaneously for source apportionments. Incremental lifetime cancer risk was employed to estimate children's health risks based on the assumed exposure scenarios. Spearman correlation, Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis H test and Partial Least Squares were used to screen the factors affecting the concentration of PAHs in residential dust.Results: The median concentration of ∑16PAHs in residential dust from 8 cities was 44.11 μg/g (0.04 - 355.79 μg/g). ∑16PAHs were found both higher in dust samples in heating season and from downwind households only in Mianyang (p < 0.05). The leading two sources of PAHs were combustion processes and automobile exhaust emissions based on four principal components that accounted for 74.29 % of the total variance. Indoor air environmental factors, household characteristics, and residents' behavioral lifestyles may be the influencing factors of residential dust PAHs. The carcinogenic risk of children aged 0 - 5 years, under the moderate exposure level of PAHs in residential dust, exceeded the acceptable level (10−5 - 10−4 for dermal contact and 10−6 - 10−5 for ingestion).Conclusions: There was serious PAHs pollution in residential dust under actual living conditions in eight cities across China. More evidence-based measures were needed to control PAHs pollution to safeguard children's health according to appointed sources and influencing factors in residential dust.
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| 3. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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