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- Arrow, K. J., et al.
(författare)
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Should Governments Use a Declining Discount Rate in Project Analysis?
- 2014
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Ingår i: Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. - : University of Chicago Press. - 1750-6816 .- 1750-6824. ; 8:2, s. 145-163
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Should governments use a discount rate that declines over time when evaluating the future benefits and costs of public projects? The argument for using a declining discount rate (DDR) is simple: if the discount rates that will be applied in the future are uncertain but positively correlated, and if the analyst can assign probabilities to these discount rates, then the result will be a declining schedule of certainty-equivalent discount rates. There is a growing empirical literature that estimates models of long-term interest rates and uses them to forecast the DDR schedule. However, this literature has been criticized because it lacks a connection to the theory of project evaluation. In benefit-cost analysis, the net benefits of a project in year t (in consumption units) are discounted to the present at the rate at which society would trade consumption in year t for consumption in the present. With simplifying assumptions, this leads to the Ramsey discounting formula, which results in a declining certainty-equivalent discount rate if the rate of growth in consumption is uncertain and if shocks to consumption are correlated over time. We conclude that the arguments in favor of a DDR are compelling and thus merit serious consideration by regulatory agencies in the United States.
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- Rasher, Douglas B., et al.
(författare)
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Keystone predators govern the pathway and pace of climate impacts in a subarctic marine ecosystem
- 2020
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science. - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 369:6509, s. 1351-1355
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Predator loss and climate change are hallmarks of the Anthropocene yet their interactive effects are largely unknown. Here, we show that massive calcareous reefs, built slowly by the alga Clathromorphum nereostratum over centuries to millennia, are now declining because of the emerging interplay between these two processes. Such reefs, the structural base of Aleutian kelp forests, are rapidly eroding because of overgrazing by herbivores. Historical reconstructions and experiments reveal that overgrazing was initiated by the loss of sea otters, Enhydra lutris (which gave rise to herbivores capable of causing bioerosion), and then accelerated with ocean warming and acidification (which increased per capita lethal grazing by 34 to 60% compared with preindustrial times). Thus, keystone predators can mediate the ways in which climate effects emerge in nature and the pace with which they alter ecosystems.
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- Arrow, K., et al.
(författare)
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Determining Benefits and Costs for Future Generations
- 2013
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Ingår i: Science. - 0036-8075. ; 341:6144, s. 349-350
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In economic project analysis, the rate at which future benefits and costs are discounted relative to current values often determines whether a project passes the benefit-cost test. This is especially true of projects with long time horizons, such as those to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Whether the benefits of climate policies, which can last for centuries, outweigh the costs, many of which are borne today, is especially sensitive to the rate at which future benefits are discounted. This is also true of other policies, e.g., affecting nuclear waste disposal or the construction of long-lived infrastructure
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