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| 2. |
- Meunier, Simon, et al.
(författare)
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Cost and capacity analysis for representative EU energy grids depending on decarbonisation scenarios : D4.4
- 2021
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This work studies the transformation of energy grids of the European Union (EU) in the frame of the energy transition. Three energy grid types are considered namely the electricity, thermal and gas grids. Regarding electricity grids, we investigate the required reinforcements of the low-voltage networks (e.g. replacing the distribution transformer by one of higher nominal power, replacing cables by cables of larger cross-section) in order to integrate residential low-carbon technologies such as heat pumps, photovoltaic systems and electric vehicles. To do so, we develop a methodology for the quantification of EU low-voltage grid reinforcement costs following residential low-carbon technologies integration. This methodology uses urbanisation data to determine the share of dwellings in rural and urban areas in EU28 countries (EU27 + United Kingdom). It is also based on a model that quantifies the grid reinforcement cost as a function of the low-carbon technologies integration scenario for representative rural and urban grids. This model is composed of three sub-models, namely the dwelling, grid and economic models. We also collected data from 24 open access grids (i.e. grids of which the specifications are freely accessible online) and 23 scientific articles and reports to determine the parameter values of the grid and economic models for EU28 countries. Finally, we provide example applications that illustrate the methodology by computing the grid reinforcement costs from heat pumps and photovoltaic systems integration in Belgium and Italy. Results indicate that, in the largest majority of cases, both for Belgian and Italian grids, the reinforcement cost per dwelling remains below 350 € per dwelling (total cost for the whole lifespan of 33 years). The only case where more significant reinforcement costs occurred (> 350 €/dwelling and up to 1150 €/dwelling) is for the Belgian rural grid with heat pump integration rates larger than 40%. When it comes to thermal grids, we investigate the deployment of district heating, a heat supply technology that by its fundamental idea incorporates energy efficiency and thus can trigger important greenhouse gas emissions reduction. For this purpose, we proposed an approach to map the cost of thermal grids deployment per heat demand unit in the EU. This approach is based on the concept of representative thermal grids which corresponds to a principal equation that defines the distribution capital costs as the ratio of empirically derived specific investments costs and the linear heat density. In the sEEnergies project, this concept is expanded to comprise better cost models based on actual district heating network layouts at the spatial resolution of 1 hectare. While in the Heat Roadmap Europe project, the variables were generated only for the 14 EU Member States with largest annual volumes of building heat demands, the present approach covers all EU27 Member States plus United Kingdom. In this deliverable, we focus on the current year, while the deliverable 4.5 focuses on the future years. Regarding gas grids, we present the key technical and economic characteristics of the existing gas grids and storages in the EU28 countries. We focus not only on infrastructure for natural gas but also for biogas, biomethane, syngas and hydrogen, which could play an important role in the decrease of greenhouse gas emissions. This techno-economic review provides important information to assess the cost of retrofitting and developing gas grids depending on the decarbonisation scenarios.
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| 3. |
- Möller, Bernd, et al.
(författare)
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An empirical high-resolution geospatial model of future population distribution for assessing heat demands
- 2021
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The future population distribution informs decisions on investment in district heating. Across Europe, demographic change has been associated with structural changes of the past. Trends towards urban or rural migration, urban sprawl or the depopulation of city centers will continue. Using gridded population data since 1990, past development is mapped using spatial disaggregation to grid cells by intensity of urban development. An empirical method proposed captures increment of population in each grid cell and relates it to the focal statistics of the cell neighbourhood. A positive population trend in populated cells leads to a future population increase and a spill over into new development areas, while a negative trend leads to lower future population. New areas are modelled based on the principles of proximity and similarity using neighbourhood trends and land cover suitability, adjusted to national and regional population trends. The result is a set of future 1-hectare population grids, which have been used to model the distribution of future heat demands. The distribution of heat demand densities, the zoning of heat supply, and the potential for individual heat pumps have been modelled. Results show that reductions of heat demands and demographic developments leave a window of opportunities to develop heating infrastructures with known technology in the present decade, after which 4th Generation District Heat technology is required to decarbonise the heating sector.
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| 4. |
- Möller, Bernd, et al.
(författare)
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Heat Roadmap Europe : Towards EU-Wide, local heat supply strategies
- 2019
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Ingår i: Energy. - London : Elsevier. - 0360-5442 .- 1873-6785. ; 177, s. 554-564
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The present paper describes a quantitative method for preparing local heat supply strategies. Detailed spatial data on heat demand and supply are generated using combined top-down and bottom-up modelling for 14 member states of the European Union, which constitute 91% of its heat demand in buildings. Spatial analysis is used for zoning of heat supply into individual and collective heating. Continuous cost curves are used to model economically feasible district heating shares within prospective supply districts. Excess heat is appraised and allocated to prospective district heating systems by means of a two-stage network allocation process. Access to renewable energy sources such as geothermal, large-scale solar thermal, as well as sustainable biomass, is analysed. The result is a comprehensive and detailed set of heat supply strategies in a spatially discrete manner. The findings indicate that in the 14 European Union member states, up to 71% of building heat demand in urban areas can be met with district heating. Of this, up to 78% can be covered with excess heat, while the remainder can be covered with low enthalpy renewable energy sources. The conclusion shows the possibility of a largely de-carbonised heat sector as part of a smart energy system for Europe. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
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| 5. |
- Möller, Bernd, et al.
(författare)
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Heat Roadmap Europe : Identifying local heat demand and supply areas with a European thermal atlas
- 2018
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Ingår i: Energy. - London : Elsevier. - 0360-5442 .- 1873-6785. ; 158, s. 281-292
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016 the first Strategy for Heating and Cooling of the European Union has shown that district heating and cooling networks can integrate renewable energies in an increasingly energy-efficient built environment. At the same time, the heating and cooling sector is probably the most diverse and least mapped component of the European energy system. The aim of the Pan-European Thermal Atlas is to improve the knowledge base for the geographical distribution of heat and cooling demands across Europe. Demand densities of the demanded thermal services themselves, the spatial coherence of these demands, and their location relative to sources of heating greatly affect the economy of district heating schemes compared to individual solutions. The objective is therefore to develop a comprehensive model, which can be used to a) quantify heat demands by density, b) group coherent areas with demands into prospective supply zones, c) produce supply curves for these zones, and d) ultimately calculate local energy mixes on the basis of allocated excess heat as well as renewable energy sources. The developed method spatially disaggregates national demand data to high-resolution geospatial data on urban structures. The resulting atlas allows for an advanced quantitative screening process, which can establish the basis for energy systems analyses relying on geographically explicit information on the heating demand and supply volumes and costs. The present paper presents version 4 of the Pan-European Thermal Atlas, which takes another step towards higher spatial resolution and confidence in comparison to its predecessors, version 1 to 3. For the first time, a 100m resolution heat atlas of Europe is being presented, which may help describing the heating sector in the required spatial resolution. By means of spatial statistical analyses using ordinary least square linear regressions, multiple spatial inputs such as population, degree of built-up and its derivatives are turned into a coherent model of the urban tissue. Plot ratios form the basis of models of heat demand in single and multi-family residential buildings as well as the service sector. Prospective district heating areas have been delineated, and the resulting zoning of heat supply has been linked to a resource-economic analysis, which allows for cost-supply studies in disaggregated form. The present heat atlas version 4 is now available for 14 countries that altogether represent 90% of the heat demand in the 28 European Union member states. First results are being presented with emphasis on the achieved methodological improvements. Moreover, a newly developed online mapping system is being presented, which will assist in mapping the new geography of heating and cooling demands and supplies. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 6. |
- Möller, Bernd, et al.
(författare)
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Online web map application and first set of map layers : D5.3
- 2020
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The present report describes in overview how the Pan-European Thermal Atlas (Peta) was developed further into a spatial information system for the geography of energy efficiency potentials in the building, transport, and industry sectors, as well as the associated infrastructures. The resulting online atlas allows for visualisation of energy efficiency potentials between sectors in a common mapping environment. The additions and updates to the Pan-European Thermal Atlas (originally developed for the Heat Roadmap Europe projects) into a cross-sectoral mapping platform necessitated updates to the data layers, the layout, and the documentation. Layers with heat demand data from the building sector were updated, now to include all of the EU28, while a new map layer depicting the possible reduction of specific heat demand in buildings, as a measure of the current energy efficiency potential in this sector, is currently under development but not yet part of this deliverable (see sections 2.2 and 2.4 for further information). This new layer will be added to Peta 5.0.1 as soon as possible. For the transport and industry sectors, current year energy efficiency potentials were possible to assess and map in the present context. In the transport sector, findings were translated into geographical distributions of potentials and materialise as a set of geospatial map layers. In the industrial sector, energy efficiency in industry has been quantified partly for on-site energy savings, partly for off-site excess heat recovery in district heating systems, and the results have been turned into geographical representations in the form of energy efficiency surfaces. The Peta online mapping system is prepared to include further layers from future deliverables, such as thermal, gas, and electrical grids. Finally, the mapping of future scenarios will be made available using the present online mapping environment.
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| 7. |
- Möller, Bernd, et al.
(författare)
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Spatial models and spatial analytics results : D5.7
- 2022
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The present report accounts for the spatial models of energy efficiency and the geospatial analysis carried out to quantify and locate energy efficiency potentials across sectors. In the building sector, future heat demands on national scales are being distributed using the age class of built-up areas and innovative models of future population distribution. District heat distribution capital costs combined with heat demand densities allow for the assessment of economic potentials of future district heating. Efficiency potentials in the transport and industrial sectors have been associated to locations, and transmission infrastructures have been mapped. Combining all these aspects, spatial analytics help understanding the opportunities and constraints that arise from the geography of energy systems. Energy efficiency in the three sectors has been mapped at different scales. Cost curves for district heating have been prepared for member states. For use in energy systems analysis, a matrix has been developed that relates energy efficiency in buildings and district heating potentials. Areas of interest for the conversion of natural gas to district heating have been mapped, combining present gas use with infrastructural aspects. Local potentials of district heating have been quantified for almost 150,000 settlements, and potential heat sources from industrial and wastewater treatment plants as well as locally available renewable energy sources have been allocated to potential district heating areas. Finally, to visualise and compare energy efficiency across sectors, technologies, and countries, the sEEnergies Index shows local potentials for improving energy efficiency and utilising synergies in all settlements of the EU27 plus the UK. In conclusion, the report documents how dissemination can be facilitated using the online geospatial information and mapping applications prepared in the sEEnergies Project.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
- Persson, Urban, Dr. 1961-, et al.
(författare)
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District heating investment costs and allocation of local resources for EU28 in 2030 and 2050 : D4.5
- 2021
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Efficiency in the heat sector and the built environment can be achieved by building retrofits, the replacement of buildings, and the development of district heating as a means of structural energy efficiency. Hereby, excess heat and low-grade renewable heat sources can be integrated in the heat sector. The present report describes the future heat sector of Europe from end-use via infrastructure to heat sources. Future heat demands on national level have been modelled by sEEnergies project partners. In the present work, these demands are being distributed to future urban areas. Population forecasts have been combined with local empirical data to new 100m resolution population grids. They form the basis for the calculation of heat demands for the years 2030 and 2050 on the same geographical level. Potential areas, where district heating could be developed, have been zoned as prospective supply districts (PSDs) and basic statistics of heat demand have been calculated. Then, based on empirical district heating network data from existing district heating networks in Denmark, a new investment cost model for distribution and service pipes has been developed. Based on previous work in the Heat Roadmap Europe research project, the cost model has been improved with a better understanding of the concept of effective width. With the integration of country-specific construction cost data this results in an improved district heat distribution capital cost model for all Member States of the European Union plus the United Kingdom. The spatially explicit combination of district heat potentials and costs results in cost-supply curves for all countries as the basis for the assessment of the economic potential of future district heating. Finally, available excess heat sources from industry, waste incineration, wastewater treatment plants, and current powerplant locations are being allocated to prospective supply districts. Renewable heat potentials, including deep geothermal heat, solar thermal heat, and residual, local biomass, have also been assigned to these prospective heat supply areas. The results of the present work have been published as a web map.
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| 12. |
- Persson, Urban, Dr. 1961-, et al.
(författare)
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Heat Roadmap Europe : Heat distribution costs
- 2019
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Ingår i: Energy. - London : Elsevier. - 0360-5442 .- 1873-6785. ; 176, s. 604-622
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This analysis elaborates further the concept of physical and economic suitability for district heating in EU28 by an aggregation regarding key dimensions such as land areas, populations, heat demands, and investment volumes. This aggregation is based on a resolution on hectare level by slicing the total land area into 437 million pieces. Results show that heat demands in buildings are present in 9% of the land area. Because of high concentrations in towns and cities, 78% of the total heat demand in buildings originate from dense urban areas that constitute 1.4% of the total land area and 70% of the population. Due to these high heat densities above 50 MJ/m2 per year, the paper evaluates a setting where district heating is individually expanded in each member state for reaching a common 50% heat market proportion in EU28 at lowest cost. At this saturation rate, the aggregated EU28 district heat deliveries would increase to 5.4 EJ/a at current heat demands and represents an expansion investment volume, starting from current level of 1.3 EJ, of approximately 270 billion euro for heat distribution pipes. Given the current high heat densities in European urban areas, this study principally confirms earlier expectations by quantitative estimations. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
- Persson, Urban, 1961-, et al.
(författare)
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Methodologies and assumptions used in the mapping : Deliverable 2.3: A final report outlining the methodology and assumptions used in the mapping
- 2017
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This report is the main account for the methodologies, assumptions, data, and tools used in the WP2 mapping of the fourth Heat Roadmap Europe (HRE) project during its first reporting period (March 2016 to August 2017). During this period, the work with the major tasks assigned to WP2 in the project, including e.g. highly resolved spatial demand and resource atlases for the 14 MS´s of the EU under study, has resulted in a wide array of intermediate, complementary, and final outputs. Mentionable among these are for example hectare level projections of demand densities (residential and service sector heating and cooling demands) and investment costs for district heating and cooling systems, as well as feature polygon representations of current district heating cities in these countries. However, since the core focus here is to describe the methodological approaches and data sets used in the work, and not explicitly to present the results of the application of these, only a limited representative selection of study results are included in this report. For more exhaustive output presentations of the WP2 productions (apart from deliverables D2.1 and D2.2), all final output datasets generated are made available as operational layers in the online web map application Peta4 (the fourth Pan-European Thermal Atlas).
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| 16. |
- Wiechers, Eva, et al.
(författare)
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Documentation and dataset from the analysis and mapping of cities with similar topography and demography and the relation to energy efficient transport and mobility : D5.2
- 2020
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- With regard to transportation and mobility, the quantification of energy efficiency potentials of modal shifts and reduced transport volumes by changed and reduced movement of goods and persons requires a likewise quantitative database of current geographical properties of settlements and their spatial relationships... Based on the approach of Urban Morphological Zones, a novel method was devised, which delineates individual settlements. From small villages to large metropolitan areas, a total number of about 150,000 urban areas were mapped across Europe... Moreover, these so-called Urban Areas were enriched with attributes containing population, population densities, topographical properties such as slope, and climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. Several among these aspects are thought to describe quantitatively the context which influences the relevance and the impact of policy measures and spatial solutions for energy efficiency improvements in the transport sector. Urban Areas were characterised by their population size, and grouped in five classes, for the definition of a hierarchy between these Urban Areas. For the assessment of energy efficiency potentials regarding the transport volumes in inter-urban transportation between settlements, the distances from each Urban Area to its nearest higher-order settlements were calculated. In this way, hierarchical relationships were established for all Urban Areas, so that for each settlement, smaller and larger neighbour settlements and their proximity are known. For studies on urban transport, intra-urban distances were modelled by means of population weighted distances from populated areas to the identified urban centres. For the analysis of temporal developments of urban mobility, data for the years 1990, 2000 and 2015 were generated, which include population, populated area as well as intra-urban distances for all Urban Areas. The resulting dataset will allow transport studies within the sEEnergies project at an extraordinary geographical scale and with a very detailed data base of Urban Areas, and their connections within a European transport system. © 2020 sEEnergies
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| 17. |
- Wiechers, Eva, et al.
(författare)
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Geographic layers that illustrate future energy efficiency potentials: Second set of map layers (future years scenarios for 2030 and 2050) : D5.5
- 2022
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The Pan-European Thermal Atlas Peta is an online visualization tool for spatial data. Version 5.1 was launched in 2020 with a first set of layers for the EU27+UK, which related to energy demands in the base year and first, intermediate project results regarding energy efficiency potentials. With the update to version 5.2, Peta was complemented with layers based on the scenarios studied in different sEEnergies tasks, completed after the launch of Peta 5.1. As a result, Peta 5.2 shows energy demand and energy efficiency data for residential and service sector buildings as well as for industry and transport for different scenarios, focusing on the status-quo and the scenario year 2050, while also containing 2030 data.Throughout the Heat Roadmap Europe projects, Peta has been developed as an information system for the heat sector. Its main content related to district heating grid investment costs, district heating area demarcations and supply options. The current version 5.2 features new layers that include future heat demands and district heating development costs for distribution and service pipe investment costs, as well as energy efficiency potentials of the industry and transport sectors.In a new layer group Peta 5.2 presents the results of spatial analyses, for example the allocation of excess heat to urban areas as well as an index that combines energy efficiency potentials across sectors and technologies.Peta 5.2 can be accessed via the following URL:https://tinyurl.com/peta5seenergies, while the geospatial data can be accessed through thesEEnergies Open Data Hub: https://s-eenergies-open-data-euf.hub.arcgis.com/. Furthermore, Story Maps add an additional dimension to the dissemination of project results (accessible here: https://tinyurl.com/sEEnergiesStorymaps).
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